美国总统特朗普（资料图） 近日的越南政坛发生了大震荡！该国的四名高层人士集体下台，要知道就在当天，美国总统特朗普刚刚宣布和越南贸易协议的最新动向，如此巧合的事情 背后，这两者之间又有怎样的联系呢？ 自从新任政府班子上台之后，美国方面的大动作真是一个接着一个始终不停，其中最引人注目的就是关税政策，从一开始的有针对性征收，到后来的全世 界范围内广泛征收，美国的所作所为就连他的盟友们都瞠目结舌！ 越南作为东南亚的一个重要国家，一直以来与美国的合作都不少，毕竟想要抱人家的大腿就得拿出点诚意来，而越南对于美国来说也是一个不错的伙伴， 美国大企业在越南投资建厂也是普遍现象，特朗普上台之后还曾主动致电越方领导，两国的关系可见一斑！ 就目前的情况来看，越南政府正在稳步推进政治、经济策略，随着这四位政治人物的下台，领导班子将迎来一次大换血，这对于领导核心来说是稳定政局 的关键时刻，如果能将班子重新组建，那么对他的后续执政将大有助益。 不过即使是这样，白宫方面在征收关税时也丝毫没有对越南手软，一出手就是高达46%的关税啊，越南一看这个情况也真是傻眼了，赶紧和特朗普联系想 让他们高抬贵手，毕竟如此高的关税，真让他们的企业吃不消啊！ ...

2025年7月24日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 班轮公司最新8月报价涨跌互现，盘面继续回撤，近月保持基差修复，今日若回调可考虑加仓，设置好止损, | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 7月21日 | 7月18日 | | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1147.96点，较上期下跌5.75% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）2400.50点，较上期下跌0.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1440.25点，较上期上涨0.35% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1301.81点，较上期上涨2.8% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1181.87点，较上期下跌0.40% | | 7月18日 | | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1646.90点，较上期下跌86.39点 | 7月18日 | | | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1303.54点，较上期下跌0.8% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格2079USD/TEU, 较上期下跌1.00% | | ...

智通财经APP获悉，德州仪器(TXN.US)股价周三大幅下挫，市场分析认为这与第三季度业绩展望受宏 观经济及关税政策影响有关。尽管公司第二季度业绩表现强劲，但部分增长被视为与关税相关的"提前 采购"效应。 德州仪器第二财季营收为44.5亿美元，环比增长 9%，同比增长 16%，高于预期的43.6亿美元;毛利润为 26 亿美元，毛利率为58%，环比增长 110 个基点;净利润为13亿美元，同比增长15%;每股收益为1.41美 元，同比增长16%，高于预期的1.35美元。每股收益包含 0.02 美元的额外收益，这也超出了德州仪器最 初的预期。 奥本海默分析师里克·谢弗和魏莫克在研报中指出，管理层对第三季度的谨慎表述反映出动态的宏观与 关税环境，尽管半导体行业周期性复苏仍在持续。数据显示，德州仪器中国区销售额环比增长19%，覆 盖所有终端市场，其中工业领域增长尤为突出。 公司首席执行官哈维夫·伊兰强调，当前全球供应链正经历关税与地缘政治因素带来的重塑，但德州仪 器通过与客户紧密协作及灵活运用全球制造能力，已做好应对变化的准备。他特别指出，客户库存仍处 低位，而公司产能与库存管理优势将在行业复苏期发挥关键作用。 市场 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Copper pricing has returned to macro trading. The market is optimistic about the potential for supply - side clearance, which has boosted copper prices. However, demand has weakened with the price rebound, and there is a short - term situation of weak supply and demand. Domestic macro - policies and low inventories support copper prices. The main reference price range is 78,500 - 81,000 yuan/ton [1][3]. Aluminum - For alumina, short - term prices are expected to be strong above 3,100 yuan/ton, but there are risks such as policy changes in Guinea and potential squeezes. Mid - term, it is advisable to short at high prices. For aluminum, short - term prices are under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price reference range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction inflection points and demand changes [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract reference range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in upstream scrap aluminum supply and imports [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - sentiment [9]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to be range - bound, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations [11]. Tin - Supply - side restoration is expected as tin mines in Myanmar resume production. However, due to positive market sentiment, short positions should be avoided for now. After the sentiment stabilizes, short at high prices [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy directions and steel - mill production reduction rhythms [17]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market is characterized by emotional differentiation, and trading on price volatility can be considered. The main contract price range is 68,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton. Mid - term, a hedging strategy at high prices is recommended. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and upstream actions [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.04% to 79,790 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 180 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.34 million tons (-0.30%) to 1.1349 million tons, and imports increased by 47,400 tons (18.74%) to 300,500 tons. The opening rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased by 7.22 percentage points to 74.22% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.43% to 20,850 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, alumina production decreased by 14,000 tons (-0.19%) to 7.2581 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 120,000 tons (-3.22%) to 3.609 million tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,250 yuan/ton. The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 50 yuan/ton to 95 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 9,000 tons (1.49%) to 615,000 tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 6,000 tons (-2.30%) to 255,000 tons [6]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.18% to 22,820 yuan/ton. The premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, refined zinc production increased by 35,700 tons (6.50%) to 585,100 tons, and imports increased by 9,300 tons (34.97%) to 36,100 tons [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.40% to 124,050 yuan/ton. The premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel remained unchanged at 2,000 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, China's refined nickel production decreased by 3,550 tons (-10.04%) to 31,800 tons, and imports increased by 10,325 tons (116.90%) to 19,157 tons [11]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.98% to 268,900 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 1 tin remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, tin ore imports decreased by 1,538 tons (-11.44%) to 11,911 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 1,030 tons (-6.94%) to 13,810 tons [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.39% to 12,900 yuan/ton. The spot - futures spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 170 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China decreased by 68,300 tons (-3.83%) to 1.7133 million tons, and imports decreased by 16,000 tons (-12.48%) to 109,500 tons [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.95% to 70,450 yuan/ton. The 2508 - 2509 spread decreased by 60 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, lithium carbonate production increased by 6,010 tons (8.34%) to 78,090 tons, and demand decreased by 145 tons (-0.15%) to 93,815 tons [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Index futures are rated as a slow - bull market with an upward - trending shock; treasury bonds are recommended to focus on taking profits, with a strengthening shock [6]. - **Black building materials**: Rebar is recommended for temporary observation; iron ore is expected to be strong with shocks; coking coal and coke are recommended for cautious trial - buying [1][8][9]. - **Non - ferrous metals**: Copper is recommended for range trading or observation; aluminum is recommended to be mainly observed; nickel is recommended for observation or short - selling at high prices; tin is recommended for range trading; gold and silver are recommended for range trading [1][11][20]. - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and rubber are expected to be strong with shocks; urea and methanol are expected to move with shocks; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range shocks; soda ash is recommended for离场观望 [1][23][36]. - **Cotton - spinning industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be strong with shocks; apples and jujubes are expected to move with shocks [1][38][39]. - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Pigs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices; eggs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices in the short - term and long - bought at low prices in the fourth quarter; corn is expected to have high - level shocks; soybean meal and oils are expected to be strong with shocks [1][41][48]. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment ratings and market outlooks for various futures products in different industries. It analyzes market trends based on factors such as macro - economic policies, supply - demand relationships, and international trade situations. For example, in the macro - finance sector, index futures are influenced by trade news and show a slow - bull trend, while treasury bonds face challenges from capital diversion and risk - preference changes. In the black building materials sector, prices are affected by factors like production inspections, supply - demand balances, and policy expectations. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Index futures**: The slow - bull trend is gradually clear, and the index center moves up due to trade news boosting market risk preference [6]. - **Treasury bonds**: Although the odds space of long - term and ultra - long - term yields has opened, the bond market is under pressure from capital diversion and cautious institutional behavior. It is recommended to focus on taking profits [6]. Black building materials - **Rebar**: The price is expected to be strong with shocks. The supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced, and attention should be paid to policy signals and crude steel production restrictions [8]. - **Iron ore**: The price is expected to be strong with shocks. The supply is stable, the demand is strong, and the market is influenced by trade policies and policy expectations [9]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Coking coal shows a supply - demand boom, and the price is strongly supported in the short - term. Coke has obvious supply - demand gaming characteristics, and the second - round price increase may be affected by factors such as steel mill profits [9][10]. Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: The price is expected to be in a high - level shock. It is affected by factors such as import tariffs, inventory changes, and economic recovery expectations [11]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term upward space of the price is limited. Attention should be paid to inventory accumulation. Alumina is recommended for observation, and electrolytic aluminum and cast aluminum alloy are recommended for observation [13][14]. - **Nickel**: The long - term supply is excessive, and the price is expected to move with shocks. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [18]. - **Tin**: The supply gap is improving, and the price is expected to be supported. It is recommended for range trading [19][20]. - **Silver and gold**: The prices are expected to move with shocks. They are affected by factors such as economic data, geopolitical situations, and tariff policies [20][22]. Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: The supply - demand is still weak, but it is driven by policy expectations and is expected to be strong with shocks. Attention should be paid to the support at 5100 [24][25]. - **Caustic soda**: The supply is high, and the demand has rigid support but slow growth. The near - month contract is under pressure, and the 10 - contract can be considered for low - buying on dips [26][27]. - **Styrene**: The fundamentals have limited benefits, and it is expected to be strong with shocks. Attention should be paid to the support at 7300 [28]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to be strong with shocks. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 15000. The raw material is firm, and the inventory shows a slight destocking trend [30]. - **Urea**: The supply decreases slightly, the demand has certain support, and the price is expected to move with shocks in the range of 1680 - 1850 [31]. - **Methanol**: The supply and demand tend to be stable, and the price is expected to move with shocks [33]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is large, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to have a weak shock. Attention should be paid to the intervals of 7200 - 7500 for L2509 and 6900 - 7200 for PP2509 [34][35]. - **Soda ash**: It is recommended for离场观望. The supply is high, the demand is under pressure, and the short - term is driven by macro factors [37]. Cotton - spinning industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: The price is expected to be strong with shocks. The global cotton supply and demand are adjusted, and the spot market is tight [38]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to maintain a high - level range shock due to low inventory [39]. - **Jujubes**: The spot price is expected to be stable in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the new - season situation in the production area [39]. Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Pigs**: The supply - demand pressure still exists, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices after the rebound [41][42]. - **Eggs**: In the short - term, it is recommended to short - sell at high prices, and in the fourth quarter, it is recommended to long - buy at low prices. Attention should be paid to factors such as supply and demand changes and cold - storage egg出库 [44]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and the price is expected to have a high - level shock. It is recommended to be cautious when going long unilaterally and pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse spread opportunity [45][46]. - **Soybean meal**: In the short - term, it is recommended to go long at low prices for M2509. In the long - term, pay attention to the weather and go long at low prices for M2511 and M2601 [46][48]. - **Oils**: In the short - term, pay attention to the support levels of 8000, 8900, and 9400 for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil 09 contracts, and continue the idea of buying on dips [48][53].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: High - level oscillation, long - term strategic allocation [1] - Silver: Bullish, with support shifted up [1] - Copper: Bullish [1] - Zinc: Cautiously bullish [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Cautiously bullish [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [1] 2. Core Views - The Fed's possible over - expected interest rate cut, unclear Trump's tariff policy and regional conflicts, along with continued central bank gold purchases, support the long - term bullish trend of gold, while short - term breakthrough of the previous high requires concentrated outbreak of risk factors [3] - For copper, due to the tense global copper mine situation and its status as an important strategic resource, there is long - term confidence in its price increase [7] - Zinc supply is expected to increase while demand is weak in the long term, but short - term factors support a cautious bullish view [1][9] - Aluminum prices face pressure to rebound due to factors such as increased inventory and weakening demand in the off - season [11] - Nickel prices have limited room for rebound due to factors like high inventory and weak demand in the off - season [13] - For lithium carbonate, although the short - term fundamentals have not improved significantly, the market has priced in the easing of supply - demand contradictions in advance, and there are differences between long and short positions [15] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: With increased expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut and uncertain prospects of the August 1st negotiation deadline, gold and silver are at high levels [2] - **Basic Logic**: US data is weak, there are developments in US - EU tariffs, Powell is under pressure, and the Fed's possible over - expected interest rate cut, along with other factors, support the long - term bullish trend of gold [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold has strong support around 770 - 775, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged; silver has strong support at 9250, and a bullish approach is recommended [4] Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper price lost the 80,000 mark after briefly reaching it, with intense competition between bulls and bears at this key psychological level [6] - **Industrial Logic**: The tight situation of copper concentrates persists, electrolytic copper production is increasing, domestic social inventory is de - stocking against the season, downstream开工率 is rising, and green copper demand in power and automotive sectors offsets the insufficient demand in real estate construction [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold previous long copper positions, and some can take profits. In the long - term, there is confidence in the rise of copper prices. The Shanghai copper price is expected to be in the range of [79000, 81000], and the London copper price in the range of [9700, 10000] US dollars per ton [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc price is oscillating at a high level, testing the pressure of the upper - level resistance [8] - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is abundant, domestic new smelting capacity is being released, zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, and although the demand for galvanizing is boosted, the off - season and high prices make downstream enterprises hesitant [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold previous long zinc positions cautiously, not to chase the rise blindly. New speculators should wait for a pull - back to enter. In the long - term, wait for opportunities to short at high prices. The Shanghai zinc price is expected to be in the range of [22800, 23200], and the London zinc price in the range of [2750, 2950] US dollars per ton [9] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices face pressure to rebound, and alumina rebounds and then falls [10] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the operating capacity is increasing, inventory is rising, and demand is weakening in the off - season. For alumina, there are disturbances in overseas bauxite supply, and the short - term supply of spot alumina is relatively tight, but the overall supply - demand structure is expected to remain loose [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to mainly wait and see for Shanghai aluminum, pay attention to changes in aluminum ingot inventory, and the main operating range is [20300 - 21000]. Alumina is expected to face pressure during the rebound [11] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices have limited rebound, and stainless steel prices face pressure during the rebound [12] - **Industrial Logic**: For nickel, there is uncertainty in the overseas environment, the price of nickel ore may decline, and domestic nickel supply and demand are weak, with inventory accumulating. For stainless steel, the production reduction is weakening, and inventory pressure is emerging again in the off - season [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to mainly wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, pay attention to inventory changes, and the main operating range of nickel is [122000 - 125000] [13] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 significantly reduces positions and declines by more than 4% [14] - **Industrial Logic**: In the spot market, lithium salt factories are willing to sell, and basis weakens. Although the short - term fundamentals have not improved significantly, the market has priced in the easing of supply - demand contradictions in advance, and the number of warehouse receipts is increasing [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to mainly wait and see in the short - term, with the price range of [69000 - 73400] [15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views - The overall commodity futures market shows a complex situation with different trends and trading strategies for various commodities. Some commodities are expected to be volatile, while others have specific supply - demand and price trends. For example, some metals are affected by supply - demand fundamentals and geopolitical factors, and agricultural products are influenced by weather, policy, and seasonal factors [1][5]. Summaries by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: Yesterday, copper prices fluctuated weakly. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the demand shows a differentiation. The short - term trading strategy is to view copper prices as fluctuating strongly, as the US dollar index is consolidating at a key support level [1]. - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum plant maintains high - load production, and the demand is in the traditional off - season but with a slight increase in the weekly aluminum product start - up rate. With the upcoming policy and cost support, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to buy on dips [1]. - **Alumina**: The production of alumina plants is stable, and the demand from electrolytic aluminum plants is stable. The bullish sentiment is fading, and the price is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to policy and position structure changes [1]. - **Zinc**: The supply pressure of zinc ingots continues, and the consumption is weak in the off - season. There is a risk of a short squeeze in the LME. The short - term strategy is to wait and see, and the long - term view is bearish [1]. - **Lead**: The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and there is a risk of a short squeeze in the LME. The trading strategy is to operate within a range [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The supply is expected to increase in July, and the demand is expected to improve marginally. The price is expected to turn into a wide - range fluctuation, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Tin**: The supply side focuses on the resumption of production in Wa State, and the demand shows a situation of weak supply and demand. Attention should be paid to the short - squeeze risk under the ultra - low inventory in London [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The supply and demand of building materials are weak, but the inventory pressure is small. The overall supply and demand of steel are balanced, but there is a significant structural differentiation. It is recommended to wait and see, and multi - orders should be closed at an appropriate time [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the demand is relatively strong. The inventory accumulation may be slower than the seasonal pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, and multi - orders should be closed at an appropriate time. A long position in the 2605 volume - to - ore ratio can be arranged [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply and demand are relatively loose, but the fundamentals are slowly improving. The futures price is overvalued. It is recommended to wait and see, and multi - orders should be closed at an appropriate time [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The international soybean supply is expected to be loose, and the US soybean export demand is uncertain. The domestic soybean arrival is large, and the demand is high. It is recommended to follow the international cost side and pay attention to weather and tariff policies [5]. - **Corn**: The remaining grain is scarce, and the demand for domestic corn is affected by substitutes. The price is expected to fluctuate after a continuous decline [5]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract rose. The domestic sugar market is affected by imports and macro - sentiment. The later price of the 09 contract is expected to be weakly volatile [5]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton growth and demand show different trends, and the domestic cotton inventory is decreasing. The trading strategy is to buy on dips and operate within a range [5][6]. - **Palm Oil**: The supply in Malaysia is in the seasonal increase period, and the demand shows a decline in exports but support in year - on - year demand. It is recommended to be bullish in the short - term and focus on production and biodiesel policies [6]. - **Eggs**: High temperatures reduce the egg - laying rate, and the demand from food factories may increase seasonally, but the cold - storage egg inventory is high. The egg price is expected to be strong in the short - term [6]. - **Pigs**: The consumption of pigs is seasonally weak, and the supply is increasing. The pig price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [6]. - **Apples**: The opening price of new - season early - maturing apples has increased, and the market is waiting for the results of bag - removal. The current consumption is light, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The domestic supply is increasing, and the import is expected to decrease. The demand is improving in the post - off - season of agricultural film. The short - term trading strategy is to expect fluctuations, and the long - term strategy is to short far - month contracts on rallies [7]. - **PVC**: The supply of PVC is expected to increase, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to close short - positions and wait for policy implementation [8]. - **Rubber**: The raw material price is rising, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate around 15,000, and attention should be paid to the pressure level at 15,300 [8]. - **Glass**: The glass supply is expected to increase, and the inventory is decreasing. The trading strategy is to wait and see for policy implementation [8]. - **PP**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is differentiated. The short - term is expected to fluctuate, and the long - term strategy is to short far - month contracts on rallies [8]. - **Crude Oil**: The supply is increasing, and the demand has short - term support but long - term risks. The trading strategy is to short on rallies, especially near SC530 yuan/barrel [9]. - **Styrene**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is under pressure. The short - term is expected to fluctuate, and the long - term strategy is to short far - month contracts on rallies [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply and demand of soda ash have no substantial improvement, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to wait and see [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively neutral short - term trend with poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Silver: ★☆★, suggesting a somewhat bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, precious metals prices rose. Powell's speech did not mention monetary policy, and the conflict between the White House and the Fed has drawn attention to the Fed's independence. Recently, the macro - sentiment has been positive, with commodities rising in rotation, and precious metals have followed this trend. There is still room for the gold - silver ratio to decline. Due to high market uncertainty before the deadline of US tariff policies, risk sentiment is volatile, and precious metals are likely to fluctuate widely, so chasing the market is not advisable [1] Summary by Related Topics Tariff Policies - The US Treasury Secretary stated that August 1st is a "relatively firm deadline" for all countries. EU trade negotiations are separate from Russia - Ukraine sanctions negotiations, and Japan's negotiations are progressing smoothly. Canada's Ontario Province is still considering an electricity export tax. South Korea is considering making painful concessions to avoid full - scale US tariffs. Trump reached a trade agreement with the Philippines, imposing a 19% tariff on the Philippines, while the Philippines will open its market to the US with zero tariffs. The US announced details of a trade agreement with Indonesia. The Canadian Prime Minister said that a favorable agreement for Canada with the US is "not on the table" [2] Fed and Monetary Policy - The US Treasury Secretary believes the Fed should cut interest rates and said there is no sign for Powell to resign, but if he wants to leave early, he can. White House officials plan to visit the Fed headquarters on Thursday. Trump believes Powell will soon leave and that interest rates should be cut by 3 percentage points or more. A fake Powell resignation letter circulated on social media. Fed Governor Bowman emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence in monetary policy and its responsibility for transparency and accountability [2]

| Milli | > 国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月24日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆★ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属上涨。鲍威尔发表简短讲话未提及货币政策，白宫和美联储的对抗令美联储独立性问题继续受到 关注。近期宏观情绪积极,商品亢奋轮动上涨,贵金属跟随,金银比仍有向下空间。美国关税政策截止日前 市场不确定性仍强,风险情绪易反复,贵金属宽幅震荡为主,不宜追涨。 ★关税 -- 1美国财长贝森特:8月1日对所有国家来说都是一个"较为硬性的最后期限"。欧盟贸易谈判与 俄乌制裁谈判分开进行。日本的谈判进展非常顺利。②加拿大安大略省省长：电力出口税仍在考虑之中。③ 韩国考虑做出痛苦让步,以避免被美国全面征收关税。④特朗普:与菲律宾达成贸易协议,将对菲律宾征收 19%的关 ...

来源丨央视新闻 编辑丨黎雨桐 沪指3600点拉锯战，上攻动能几何？ 消失的房企区域公司 存款利率再降！3个月期击穿1% SFC 21君荐读 特朗普还说，美国正在与欧盟进行认真谈判，如果他们同意向美国企业开放，美国将允许他们 支付较低的关税。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间23日，美国总统特朗普表示，将对世界其他大部分国家征收15%至 50%的简单关税。 ...