科斯塔表示，欧盟不欢迎关税，美国必须明白，欧盟将始终捍卫其主权及其公民和企业的利益。 早上好！先来看重要资讯。 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为10.4%，降息25个基点的概率为89.6%。美联储 10月维持利率不变的概率为4.9%，累计降息25个基点的概率为47.3%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 47.9%。 欧洲理事会主席：欧盟不欢迎关税将始终捍卫主权及公民和企业利益 据央视报道，欧洲理事会主席科斯塔当地时间9月1日在讲话中承认，许多欧洲人感到沮丧，认为欧盟在 与美国的贸易中以及乌克兰问题上过于被动。 周一，贵金属市场大放异彩。COMEX黄金、白银期货价格均创历史新高，其中，COMEX黄金盘中最 高价达3557.1美元/盎司，COMEX白银盘中最高价触及41.64美元/盎司。国内方面，截至收盘，沪金主 力2510合约报收于800.56元/克，涨幅为2.08%；沪银主力2510合约报收于9775元/千克，涨幅达4.16%， 创上市以来新高。 科斯塔同时表示，欧盟正在全球范围内建立更强大的贸易和工业伙伴关系，这不仅是为了促进贸易，也 是为了提高可预测性和弹性，减少战略依赖。 德国防长驳斥 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in September is 10.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 89.6% [1] - In October, the probability of maintaining rates is 4.9%, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut probability of 47.3% and a 50 basis point cut probability of 47.9% [1] Group 2: European Union Trade Relations - The President of the European Council, Costa, stated that the EU does not welcome tariffs and will defend its sovereignty and the interests of its citizens and businesses [2] - Costa acknowledged that many Europeans feel frustrated with the EU's passive stance in trade with the U.S. and the Ukraine issue [2] - The EU is working to establish stronger global trade and industrial partnerships to enhance predictability and resilience, reducing strategic dependencies [2] Group 3: Military and Geopolitical Tensions - German Defense Minister Pistorius refuted EU Commission President von der Leyen's claims about deploying European troops to Ukraine, stating she lacks the authority to discuss such matters [3] - The German government has remained largely silent on discussions regarding sending peacekeeping troops to Ukraine, deeming it "premature" [3] - Venezuelan President Maduro claimed that Venezuela faces the greatest threat in a century from U.S. military presence, with significant naval deployments in the Caribbean [4] Group 4: Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver futures prices reached historical highs, with COMEX gold peaking at $3,557.1 per ounce and silver at $41.64 per ounce [5] - The surge in precious metals prices is driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and heightened risk aversion in the market [5][6] - Silver's performance is bolstered by strong industrial demand and a persistent supply deficit, particularly in solar energy and electronics [6][8] Group 5: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - The core PCE index in the U.S. has shown a continuous rise, and the second-quarter GDP was revised up to 3.3%, indicating persistent inflation risks [7] - The demand for gold remains strong despite increased mining supply, while central banks continue to maintain a steady net purchase of gold [8] - The outlook for precious metals prices remains bullish, with potential further increases if U.S. economic data shows a moderate decline and the Fed proceeds with rate cuts [9]

Group 1 - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching a high of $3486, the highest since April, driven by expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with an 87% probability according to CME tools [1][2] - The gold market is influenced by declining U.S. Treasury yields, geopolitical tensions, and rate cut expectations, with inflation remaining sticky as the July PCE index year-on-year was at 2.6% and core PCE slightly increased to 2.9% [2] - Geopolitical risks, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, are enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 2 - The current upward trend in gold prices is supported by macroeconomic easing expectations and risk aversion, with a weak dollar and global uncertainties contributing to the conditions for gold to challenge historical highs [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold has broken through the $3440 resistance level, opening new upward potential, although short-term adjustments may occur around the psychological barrier of $3500 [2][4] - The weekly and daily charts show a positive trend for gold, with short-term support levels at $3463 and $3457, while the focus remains on potential upward movements towards historical highs [4]

Report Overview - Report Date: September 1, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Precious Metals Industry Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market has strongly broken through recent levels. The main drivers include the continuous strengthening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, with a rate cut in September becoming the market's baseline scenario. If the subsequent US non - farm data shows weakness, there is a possibility of three rate cuts within the year. Historically, precious metal prices tend to be relatively strong when rate - cut expectations rise [2]. - Trump's continuous pressure on Fed officials threatens the Fed's policy independence, boosting safe - haven sentiment and gold prices. Silver, as a high - beta variety, follows gold's upward movement. Also, the gold - silver ratio is above the historical central level, with room for further repair, potentially pulling up the silver price [2]. - In the previous months, gold was in a range - bound state due to frequent disturbances from tariff and inflation expectations. Recently, the market's rate - cut expectations have been gradually consolidated, and trading sentiment has turned optimistic [2]. - Looking ahead, attention should be paid to the US August PMI and non - farm employment data. If the data deviates from expectations, there may be a phase - wise correction, but a rate cut in September is almost a "fact", and the possibility of a significant decline is low unless the employment data is significantly more optimistic than expected. Technically, both gold and silver are in the overbought zone, with a short - term adjustment need [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 800.56 yuan/gram, up 15.44 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 9775 yuan/kilogram, up 389 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main - contract positions of Shanghai gold were 140,691 lots, up 4,000 lots; those of Shanghai silver were 294,815 lots, up 31,945 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract were 164,870 lots, up 3,137 lots; those of Shanghai silver were 123,108 lots, up 8,690 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The gold warehouse receipts were 39,744 kilograms, up 120 kilograms; the silver warehouse receipts were 1,207,227 kilograms, up 11,231 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price was 795.38 yuan/gram, up 2.07 yuan; the silver spot price was 9,656 yuan/kilogram, up 291 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 5.18 yuan/gram, down 0.05 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 119 yuan/kilogram, down 58 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings were 977.68 tons, up 9.74 tons; silver ETF holdings were 15,310 tons, down 22.59 tons [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The gold CFTC non - commercial net positions were 214,311 contracts, up 1,721 contracts; the silver CTFC non - commercial net positions were 46,466 contracts, down 83 contracts [2]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The total quarterly supply of gold was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the total global annual demand for silver was 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 8.21%, up 0.23 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 9.94%, up 0.03 percentage points [2]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for gold was 16.28%, up 0.42 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump's global tariff policy and the prosecution for the removal of Fed Governor Cook are facing a final ruling by the US Supreme Court [2]. - Japan and the US are discussing special measures to reduce the burden of "reciprocal tariffs" on Japan and a presidential order to lower auto tariffs [2]. - Despite the US Court of Appeals ruling most of Trump's tariffs illegal, the Trump administration continues trade negotiations [2]. - The market is focused on the upcoming US non - farm payroll data, which may determine the expected scale of the Fed's interest - rate cut later this month [2]. - The US July core PCE price index rose 2.9% year - on - year, the highest since February 2025, and 0.3% month - on - month [2]. - According to the CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 12.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 87.4%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 5.6%, a 25 - basis - point cumulative cut is 45.8%, and a 50 - basis - point cumulative cut is 48.6% [2]. 3.6 Price Ranges to Watch - Shanghai Gold 2510 contract: 750 - 850 yuan/gram; Shanghai Silver 2510 contract: 9,600 - 9,900 yuan/kilogram [2]. - London gold price: 3,450 - 3,550 US dollars/ounce; London silver price: 39 - 41 US dollars/ounce [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The gold market is in a stage of volatile upward movement, and the price center is expected to rise in the later stage. The reasons are as follows: in terms of the risk - aversion logic, the impact of tariffs is still fluctuating in the short term, and there is no significant progress in the Russia - Ukraine negotiations, so the long - term risk - aversion logic still exists; in terms of the investment logic, the central bank adjusted the monetary policy framework at the August annual meeting, greatly increasing the expectation of a September interest rate cut, with an expected interest rate cut of 50 - 75bp within the year, and the expected decline in interest rates will drive up the gold price [2]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In August, the gold price remained in a high - level volatile range, with the COMEX gold price fluctuating around $3380 - 3480 per ounce. The reasons for the price movement include high - level uncertainty in US tariff disputes in August and the lack of obvious progress in Russia - Ukraine negotiations, which maintained long - term risk - aversion sentiment; the adjustment of the monetary policy framework by the Federal Reserve at the Jackson Hole annual meeting in August increased the expectation of an interest rate cut, which may continue to drive up the gold price [7][8]. 2. Financial Attributes - The core of the financial attributes is the US Treasury real interest rate (represented by the ITIPS yield), and historical data shows an obvious negative correlation between the gold price and the real interest rate. It is mainly affected by US economic growth, inflation levels, and monetary policy, with monetary policy being the most direct influencing factor in the short to medium term [15]. - The US economic situation: In the second quarter of 2025, the US GDP's quarter - on - quarter annualized rate was 3%, showing an obvious recovery from the first quarter, but the year - on - year growth rate has been lower than the potential GDP growth rate for two consecutive quarters, indicating that the current US economic growth rate is still low. In July, the ISM manufacturing PMI fell slightly to 48%, still below the boom - bust line, and new orders were also below the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the US manufacturing's prosperity after the suspension of interest rate cuts. In July 2025, the initial value of new non - farm payrolls was 73,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 104,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, the highest since November 2021. In July, the US CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, remaining flat with the previous value and slightly lower than the market expectation; it rose 0.2% month - on - month, a decline from the previous value of 0.3% [19][22][26]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy: The market's expectation of a September interest rate cut has risen to about 85%, mainly because the Federal Reserve adjusted the monetary policy framework at the August central bank annual meeting. There is a high probability of 2 - 3 interest rate cuts within the year. The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts in July, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%. The previous June dot - plot showed that Federal Reserve officials thought there would be 2 interest rate cuts within the year, but there were differences [33][35][38]. 3. Monetary Attributes - In terms of monetary attributes, the impact of US dollar credit and other risk events is mainly considered. In August, the US dollar index fluctuated around the 97 - 98 level. With Powell's dovish statement at the August central bank annual meeting and Trump's intervention in the Federal Reserve Council, the US dollar index declined slightly in late August [40][44]. - The GPR risk indicator shows that the geopolitical risk level in the US declined in August compared with the previous two months, mainly due to the smooth progress of US tariff negotiations. The Russia - Ukraine negotiations are ongoing, and the geopolitical risk in the Middle East remains relatively tense [48]. 4. Commodity Attributes - In the long run, the supply of gold is sufficient as it is relatively stable. From 2023 - 2024, the global gold supply will continue to increase steadily. However, the domestic gold production may continue to decline year by year due to factors such as the decline in gold grades in mining areas and the pressure of environmental protection expenditures. In terms of demand, jewelry demand will drive the overall demand to pick up [51]. Hedging Strategies for Different Participants - For mining enterprises, smelting enterprises, and terminal consumers with inventory who are worried about the decline in the gold price, short - term negative factors suggest shorting gold futures for hedging, with the contract being au251. For smelting enterprises and terminal consumers who are purchasing raw materials and worried about the rise in the gold price, direct long - buying of gold futures is recommended, also with the contract au251 [2][4]. Key Data to Watch - The September Federal Reserve interest rate meeting and the August US economic data [2].

转自：新华财经 •海通期货：通胀风险难以消退 支撑黄金长期牛市延续 •金瑞期货：避险情绪升温 贵金属价格大涨 新湖期货表示，黄金上涨一方面是受益于市场对美联储年内降息预期的回升，另一方面来自于市场对美 联储独立性的担忧使得美元指数承压。特朗普罢免美联储理事库克事件持续发酵，在上周五的听证上， 法官未能立即裁决，并要求库克的律师提交补充意见，详细阐述解职行为违法的理由。库克暂时继续留 任，她仍将参加9月的利率决策会议。短期来看，特朗普解雇美联储理事库克的决定是他上任以来对美 联储的第四次攻击，美联储的独立性堪忧，疲弱的美元将对金价形成一定支撑。中长期来看，央行购金 具有持续性，叠加全球货币的泛滥和去美元化趋势，将继续支撑金价中枢上行，后续黄金可能仍偏强。 关注本周美国8月非农就业数据。 资产战略国际（Asset Strategies International）总裁兼首席运营官Rich Checkan表示，目前投资者几乎确 信美联储将在9月的会议上降息，这有望成为金价进一步上涨的驱动。他认为，尽管金价突破3400美元 阻力位之后，获利回吐的时机可能已经成熟，但考虑到美国总统特朗普解雇美联储理事库存的事件让投 资 ...

Group 1: Overall Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a 5.50% increase in Q2 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index, driven by rising prices of industrial and precious metals, which boosted company performance [2] - The precious metals segment reported revenues of 126.58 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.15%, with net profit reaching 6.86 billion yuan, up 41.93% [3] Group 2: Precious Metals - The increase in gold and silver prices is attributed to heightened risk aversion following the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and ongoing global central bank gold purchases, with expectations for continued price strength [3] - The market anticipates sustained gold price increases due to strong expectations for interest rate cuts following signals from Powell in August [3] Group 3: Copper Sector - The copper sector saw revenues of 427.52 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.41%, with net profit at 22.97 billion yuan, up 18.19% [2] - The rebound in copper prices is driven by supply shortages and increased demand from the electrical sector, particularly in China's new energy field [2] Group 4: Aluminum Sector - The aluminum sector reported revenues of 113.71 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.29%, with net profit at 9.60 billion yuan, up 11.40% [2] - The resilience of aluminum prices is supported by strong fundamentals and a decrease in coal prices, leading to increased profit margins [2] Group 5: Rare Earth and Magnetic Materials - The rare earth sector experienced a revenue increase of 3.94% in Q2 2025, with net profit rising by 14.57% [3] - The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was 432,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.56% increase, driven by price hikes and supply chain improvements [3] Group 6: Small Metals - The small metals sector saw a revenue increase of 20.46% in Q2 2025, with net profit rising by 13.99% [4] - Prices for molybdenum, tungsten, antimony, and tin increased by 2.32%, 10.46%, 32.07%, and 1.12% respectively, indicating a positive price trend [4] Group 7: Lithium and Nickel-Cobalt Sectors - The lithium sector faced pressure with revenues of 25 billion yuan in Q2 2025, down 6.2% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 21% [4] - The nickel-cobalt sector reported revenues of 31.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28%, with net profit at 2.65 billion yuan, up 16% [4] Group 8: New Materials - The new materials sector showed revenue growth of 12.53% in Q2 2025, with net profit increasing by 25.86% [5] - The growth is primarily driven by technological innovation and domestic substitution trends [5]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have confirmed a breakout, driven by three catalysts: strengthened interest rate cut expectations, rising risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions, and continuous central bank gold purchases [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 1, 2025, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) surged by 6.92%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Xiaocheng Technology (300139) up 13.74% and China National Gold International (02099) up 11.43% [4] - The Gold Stock ETF (159322) rose by 9.00%, marking its third consecutive increase, with a latest price of 1.47 yuan [4] - Over the past week, the Gold Stock ETF has accumulated a 7.69% increase as of August 29, 2025 [4] Group 2: Fund Performance - The Gold Stock ETF has seen a net value increase of 44.43% over the past year, with a maximum monthly return of 16.59% since inception [5] - The fund has a historical one-year profit probability of 100.00%, with an average monthly return of 8.13% during up months [5] - As of August 29, 2025, the fund's Sharpe ratio stands at 1.51, ranking it in the top 33% of comparable funds [5] Group 3: Index Composition - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) account for 66.52% of the index, including major players like Zijin Mining (601899) and Shandong Gold (600547) [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that international gold prices have shown a significant upward trend due to market concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and expectations of potential interest rate cuts [1][3]. - International gold prices increased by approximately 2.86% over the past week and 5.02% in August, marking the best monthly performance since April [1][3]. - Two main factors driving the rise in gold prices include the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's indication of a potential openness to rate cuts despite inflation risks, and the recent controversy surrounding the dismissal of Fed Governor Cook, which has raised doubts about the Fed's independence [3][5]. Group 2 - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates once or even twice this year, providing overall support for commodity prices, including gold and silver [5]. - Swiss Bank has raised its gold price target for the first half of 2026 to $3,700 per ounce, while Bank of America predicts it could reach $4,000 per ounce in the same timeframe [5]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the trend of "de-dollarization" are prompting global investors to seek alternatives to dollar-denominated assets, with gold being viewed as a hedge against dollar depreciation and declining real interest rates [5].

早盘沪金快速上涨，早盘再次突破800元/克，涨幅2%，沪银涨幅超过3.5%，再次破历史新高，接近9800元/千 克。 | 沪银主力 | | | | | | 下载APP添加自选 重要行情优先看 APP | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9719.00 334.00 3.56% | | | | | | 1 交易中 2025-09-01 11:11:10 | | | 今开:9394.00 | | 昨结:9385.00 | | | 最高: 9771.00 | 最低: 9385.00 | | | 均价:9569.30 | | 今结: -- | | | 涨停:10511.00 | 跌停: 8258.00 | | | 昨收:9386.00 | | 日增仓:34488.00 | | | 成交量: 745887.00 | 持仓: 297358.00 | | | 5日 分时 | 日K | 圈K 月K | રસ્ત્રે | 15分 | 30分 60分 | LT === | 打开曲合APP | | 2025/09/01/-11:11 价 9733.00 ...