Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing pressure on oil prices due to increased production expectations and concerns over supply surplus, leading to a decline in international oil prices [1][2] - The U.S. government's potential shutdown poses challenges to demand forecasts for the world's largest economy, while OPEC's upcoming meeting may further exacerbate supply-demand pressures [1][2] - The termination of 223 energy projects by the U.S. Department of Energy, totaling approximately $7.56 billion, primarily affects clean and renewable energy initiatives, particularly in states that supported the Democratic Party in the last presidential election [2] Oil Market Dynamics - As of October 2, 2023, WTI crude oil prices fell by $1.30 to $60.48 per barrel, a decrease of 2.10%, while Brent crude oil prices dropped by $1.24 to $64.11 per barrel, a decline of 1.90% [1] - The Iraqi oil ministry announced the resumption of oil exports from the Kurdistan region to Turkey after a two-and-a-half-year interruption, which may influence market dynamics [1] - Analysts suggest that OPEC's consideration of increasing production capacity could lead to heightened geopolitical risks in October, despite a prevailing market sentiment of oversupply by Q4 2025 [1][3] Structural Tensions in Energy Policy - The article highlights a structural tension in the oil market, where traditional supply-demand dynamics are being challenged by geopolitical factors and U.S. energy policy shifts, potentially suppressing oil prices until the end of 2025 [2][3] - The current market is characterized by a paradox of "hard supply surplus and soft control failure," indicating that traditional risk factors are becoming less effective in influencing oil prices [3] - The anticipated increase in OPEC production by 500,000 barrels per day in November reveals a conflict between market share priorities and price stabilization goals [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Zijin Mining International (02259) is set to be included in the Hang Seng Composite Index and related indices due to its large market capitalization and good liquidity, which has positively impacted its stock price [1][1][1] Group 2 - Zijin Mining International's stock price rose by 4.15% to HKD 143.2, with a trading volume of HKD 354 million [1][1] - The company will be included in the Hang Seng Composite Index and other indices effective from October 16, 2025, following the announcement made on October 2, 2023 [1][1] - Zijin Mining International has significant gold mining assets, owning rights to eight gold mines in resource-rich regions across South America, Oceania, Central Asia, and Africa [1][1] - As of the end of 2024, the company's gold reserves and production are ranked ninth and eleventh globally, respectively [1][1] - International gold prices have reached historical highs, with a cumulative increase of 45% this year, driven by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and rising geopolitical risks [1][1]

Core Viewpoint - Russian companies are facing significant challenges in raising cheap capital in China's bond market due to concerns from Chinese banks and investors about Western sanctions [1][5][7]. Group 1: Russian Companies' Urgency - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has severely impacted Russia's economy, limiting access to international financial markets and creating a pressing need for new financing channels [3][13]. - Major Russian energy companies are particularly affected and are looking to the Chinese bond market as a potential solution [3][5]. Group 2: Challenges in the Chinese Market - Despite the urgency from Russian companies, progress in issuing "Panda bonds" in China has been slow, with preparations taking nearly a year without significant advancement [5][9]. - Chinese regulatory changes aimed at facilitating foreign bond issuance have not translated into action, as investors remain hesitant [5][11]. Group 3: Concerns Over Sanctions - The primary concern for Chinese investors is the risk of Western sanctions, which have been extensive against Russia, leading to caution in engaging with Russian enterprises [7][9]. - The potential for sanctions has already affected Chinese companies, with past instances of sanctions imposed on them for dealings with Russia [7][9]. Group 4: Creditworthiness of Russian Bonds - The creditworthiness of Russian bonds is under scrutiny due to the deteriorating economic conditions in Russia, particularly in energy exports [9][11]. - Forecasts for oil and gas revenue have been significantly downgraded, raising doubts about the ability of Russian companies to meet debt obligations [9][11]. Group 5: Political vs. Market Dynamics - While there have been high-level political efforts to promote cooperation between China and Russia, market realities and investor caution prevail [11][15]. - The reluctance of Chinese investors to engage with Russian bonds reflects a prioritization of their own economic interests over political motivations [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The article expresses a strong bullish outlook on silver prices, predicting a rise from the current level of 46 to a range of 40-50, with a potential increase of around 10% [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Environment - The expectation of interest rate cuts is a key driver for rising gold and silver prices, influenced by a cooling job market and increasing unemployment rates in the U.S. [5][6]. - The current federal benchmark interest rate is still above the neutral rate, suggesting that a reduction is necessary to stimulate the economy, with anticipated cuts exceeding expectations next year [6]. - Global fiscal expansion and rising debt risks are contributing to a bullish environment for gold, as major economies face increasing government debt and deficit concerns [7][8]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Speculative funds entering the market are significantly impacting gold prices, with a shift from a drag to a boost in price momentum as market sentiment improves [11][12]. - Predictions indicate that gold prices could reach 4,200 USD/oz by mid-next year, driven by continued demand from central banks and speculative investors [13]. Group 3: Historical Context - The relationship between gold prices and changes in the global monetary system is highlighted, with past transitions leading to significant price increases [14]. - The current challenges to the dollar-based monetary system are prompting a renewed interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [15]. Group 4: Central Bank Actions - Central banks are increasingly purchasing gold, reversing previous trends of reduction, which is expected to support higher gold prices [17][18]. - The trend of de-dollarization is gaining momentum, with central banks viewing gold as a key asset in their reserves [20][21]. Group 5: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, such as supply chain disruptions and sanctions, are driving demand for precious metals, particularly silver, which has both safe-haven and industrial properties [32][33]. Group 6: Silver Market Specifics - Industrial demand for silver is surging, particularly from the photovoltaic sector, which is expected to require over 50,000 tons annually due to increased solar installations [35]. - Supply constraints are evident, with global silver production projected to decline by 1.3% in 2024 due to mine closures and strikes [36]. - Market sentiment is shifting positively, with significant inflows into silver ETFs and increased physical demand, indicating a robust investment environment [37][38].

Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold prices, reaching a historic high of over $3,800 per ounce, is driven by a combination of political instability in the U.S., expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and systemic gold purchases by global central banks [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The political deadlock in Washington, particularly the breakdown of negotiations between the Trump administration and congressional leaders, has heightened risk aversion in capital markets, propelling gold prices [1]. - The London gold market is experiencing a rare phenomenon where traders are rapidly transporting gold bars from the Bank of England to New York to fill physical gaps in the COMEX futures market, indicating deep-seated anxieties about the credibility of the U.S. dollar [1][3]. - The gold ETF market in China has seen a significant increase, with total assets reaching 160 billion yuan, reflecting strong investor confidence in gold as a financial asset [3]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Strong expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are a key driver, with market predictions showing a 90% chance of a cut in October and a 65% chance in December, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold [2]. - Geopolitical risks, including potential tariffs on Canada and Mexico, have shifted gold's demand from short-term hedging to long-term strategic allocation [2]. - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with a projected net purchase of 1,089.4 tons in 2024, indicating a structural shift in gold's role from an investment asset to a strategic reserve [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Imbalances - The global supply of gold is constrained, with new discoveries limited and recycling of gold affected by high prices, leading to a structural gap between demand and supply [4]. - The total demand for gold is expected to reach a record 4,974 tons in Q4 2024, while supply is only projected to grow by 1.2%, exacerbating the price increase [4]. - A significant movement of gold worth $82 billion from London to New York has led to a spike in gold leasing rates, indicating tight physical supply [3][4]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators - The market sentiment is mixed, with institutional investors showing strong confidence in gold, as evidenced by hedge funds holding a record net long position of $73 billion, while some retail investors are taking profits [3]. - Technical indicators suggest that gold is in an overbought territory, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reaching 78, indicating potential for a correction if prices fall below $3,165 per ounce [4]. - The divergence in views on gold's future, with some believing its safe-haven properties are diminished while others see long-term support from central bank purchases, reflects the complex dynamics at play in the market [5].

Core Insights - Control of maritime routes is crucial for global trade, as narrow straits and canals serve as vital arteries for shipping and energy transport [1][3][9] - The competition for these strategic chokepoints reflects broader geopolitical tensions, with nations vying for dominance over critical maritime passages [3][11] Maritime Chokepoints - Twelve key maritime passages account for a significant portion of global shipping, with the Florida Strait, Malacca Strait, and Suez Canal being particularly notable [3][5] - The Suez Canal incident in 2021 highlighted the vulnerability of these chokepoints, causing a loss of over $5 billion per hour during the blockage [3][5] - Historical closures, such as the Suez Canal's eight-year shutdown starting in 1967, resulted in a 30% increase in shipping costs as vessels were forced to take longer routes [5] Geopolitical Implications - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical passage for oil transport, with disruptions potentially causing oil prices to spike by over 10% [5][9] - The Panama Canal's expansion in 2016 increased its capacity by 30%, reshaping global shipping routes and enhancing U.S. influence in the region [5][9] - Japan's reliance on alternative routes due to the shallow Malacca Strait underscores the strategic importance of maritime access for energy security [6][8] Economic Impact - Over 90% of oil and gas resources are transported via these maritime routes, making them essential for global trade in commodities [8][9] - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development warns that any disruption in key transport corridors can lead to exponential increases in shipping costs and commodity prices within 24 hours [9][11] Strategic Responses - Nations are increasingly aware of their maritime vulnerabilities, leading to strategic investments in alternative routes and infrastructure [6][11] - Russia's development of the Northern Sea Route demonstrates a shift in maritime strategy, with significant increases in cargo volumes reported in 2023 [8][11] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and potential for sudden disruptions in maritime traffic necessitate a keen understanding of global trade dynamics and maritime geography [11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices follows a significant increase, with gold reaching a new high of $3,871 per ounce before dropping to approximately $3,800 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of about 0.8% [2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The initial rise in gold prices was driven by concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown, which increased gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][6]. - The recent price fluctuations are attributed to profit-taking at the end of September, with speculation that Chinese traders may be reducing their positions ahead of the October holiday [6]. - Gold has seen a cumulative increase of approximately 45% this year, potentially marking the largest annual gain since 1979 [6]. Group 2: Economic Influences - The deadlock in Washington regarding short-term funding has heightened fears of a government shutdown, which could impede the release of critical economic data necessary for assessing the U.S. economy [6]. - Central bank demand for gold and the Federal Reserve's potential return to interest rate cuts have provided additional support for gold prices [6]. Group 3: Future Projections - UBS has a bullish outlook on the gold market, predicting that gold prices could rise to $4,200 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by factors such as a weaker dollar, significant central bank purchases, and increased ETF investments [6]. - UBS recommends a 5% allocation of gold in investment portfolios, highlighting its low correlation with stocks and bonds, making it a useful hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's expected rate cut is driving up gold prices, with the market pricing in an 88% probability of a rate cut in October. Global central banks' strong gold - buying trend and geopolitical risks also support gold prices [3]. - Copper prices soared last week due to the unexpected halt at Grasberg Copper Mine, and there is a short - term over - increase [18]. - Aluminum prices are in a short - term tug - of - war due to mixed demand signals. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, while casting aluminum alloy is trading based on fundamentals with a mixed outlook. All three may show short - term positive sentiment [38][39][40]. - Zinc supply is in surplus, and the market shows a pattern of strong external and weak internal prices in terms of inventory. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [64]. - The nickel industry is affected by various factors such as government sanctions, cost increases, and supply - demand dynamics in different segments. Prices in different parts of the chain show different trends [80]. - Tin prices are likely to fluctuate due to the short - term supply - tight situation and weak demand [95]. - Carbonate lithium futures prices are expected to fluctuate before the National Day holiday, supported by potential downstream demand growth [110]. - The industrial silicon market will maintain a "strong expectation, weak reality" pattern, and polysilicon prices are volatile [122]. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influencing Factors**: Fed rate - cut expectations, global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks support gold prices. The market anticipates an 88% chance of a rate cut in October, and 2025 central bank gold purchases may exceed 900 tons [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Copper prices rose significantly last week because of the unexpected halt at Grasberg Copper Mine, and there is short - term over - increase. The recovery time of the mine is longer than previously expected [18]. - **Market Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai copper futures and spot copper show different degrees of change, and inventory data also change [19][24]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Short - term price movements are affected by demand changes and potential positive sentiment from industry policies. The inventory decreased by 21,000 tons on Thursday [38]. - **Alumina**: It is in an oversupply situation, but short - term downward profit space may be limited due to factors such as cost and industry policies [39]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: It is trading based on fundamentals, with mixed supply - demand factors leading to short - term price stability [40]. Zinc - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply is in surplus, with domestic mines having a price advantage and overseas mines increasing production. Demand shows a pattern of strong external and weak internal prices in terms of inventory [64]. - **Market Data**: Zinc futures and spot prices change, and inventory data also show different trends [65][73]. Nickel - **Industry Situation**: The nickel industry is affected by government sanctions, cost increases, and supply - demand dynamics in different segments. Nickel iron prices are falling, and stainless steel inventory is accumulating [80]. - **Market Data**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel futures and spot show different degrees of change, and inventory data also change [81]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: Tin prices are likely to fluctuate due to short - term supply - tightness and weak demand, and the impact of macro factors has decreased [95]. - **Market Data**: Tin futures and spot prices change, and inventory data also show different trends [96][101]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price Forecast**: Carbonate lithium futures prices are expected to fluctuate before the National Day holiday, supported by potential downstream demand growth [110]. - **Market Data**: Futures and spot prices of carbonate lithium change, and inventory data also show different trends [111][116]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Outlook**: The industrial silicon market will maintain a "strong expectation, weak reality" pattern, and polysilicon prices are volatile. Attention should be paid to production cuts in the southwest and policy implementation [122]. - **Market Data**: Industrial silicon futures and spot prices change, and inventory data also show different trends [122].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of crude oil in the fourth quarter are bearish, but it is difficult for prices to decline significantly due to multiple supports [1] - The price of crude oil in the fourth quarter is expected to be weak but difficult to fall sharply. The support level is around $60 - 62 per barrel for Brent, and in extreme cases, it may reach above $72 per barrel [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1.1 Core Views - Macro - level: The global economy shows a pattern of "weak recovery but no recession". The preventive interest rate cuts by the Fed in September, October, and December will reduce the holding cost of the commodity market, provide liquidity support for crude oil, and prevent a sharp decline due to macro - pessimism [1] - Demand side: Demand remains resilient as the macro - economy is not in recession. High cracking spreads of refined oil products and inventory replenishment in the US and Europe, along with global off - balance - sheet demand, form double supports [2] - Supply side: The implementation rate of OPEC+ production increase is difficult to improve significantly, and the incremental potential of US shale oil is limited. The actual supply increase in the fourth quarter is expected to be lower than the theoretical value [3] - Global pattern: The regional supply - demand differentiation will continue, with tight supply in the US and Europe and relatively loose supply in the Middle East and Asia - Pacific. Geopolitical conflicts may break the loose supply expectation in the Middle East and Asia - Pacific [3] 1.3 Market Outlook - The core operating range for Brent crude oil in the fourth quarter is $60 - 70 per barrel, with the price fluctuating due to short - term macro - sentiment and geopolitical disturbances [7] - Investors are advised to go long when Brent is at $60 - 62 per barrel and go short at $68 - 70 per barrel, with stop - loss levels set below $58 per barrel and above $72 per barrel respectively [7] Chapter 2: Market Review - In the third quarter, the international crude oil market was affected by geopolitical risks, supply - demand fundamentals, and macro - economic factors, showing a volatile and weak trend without a clear unilateral trend [10] - In July, the market was driven by a mix of long and short factors; in August, it was first bearish and then bullish; in September, the market focus switched rapidly between long and short factors [10] Chapter 3: Key Focus Points 3.1 Macro - level - The preventive interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2025 (25BP in September, and expected 25BP each in October and December) will reduce the holding cost of crude oil, and the non - commercial net long positions of WTI have significant room for replenishment [16] - The inflation pressure in the US and the eurozone has not completely subsided. Crude oil, as an anti - inflation commodity, has room for valuation repair [18] - Attention should be paid to the risk of "policy effectiveness verification". If the US manufacturing PMI is weak and non - farm employment decreases, it may suppress crude oil demand expectations; otherwise, the OVX index may rise [20] - External pressure on the Fed has weakened market confidence in policy independence, increasing the "dollar credit weakening" expectation. The short - term crude oil price is more driven by macro - sentiment [21] 3.2 Demand side - In the US and Europe, the cracking spreads of diesel are high, inventories are low, and refinery capacity is constrained. The expected lower temperature in Europe in the fourth quarter will increase heating demand and support cracking spreads [25] - Global off - balance - sheet demand, including inventory replenishment in China, the US, and floating storage in Russia and Iran, will absorb 30 - 43 barrels per day of supply in the fourth quarter, slowing down the inventory accumulation [29] 3.3 Supply side - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 13.7 barrels per day starting from October, but the implementation rate is expected to be around 75% in the fourth quarter, with an actual increase of about 80 barrels per day due to capacity and policy constraints [34] - The incremental potential of US shale oil is limited due to profit and cost constraints. The output increase in the fourth quarter is expected to be less than 10 barrels per day [36] 3.4 Global Pattern - The global crude oil market will maintain a pattern of "tight in the US and Europe, and relatively loose in the Middle East and Asia - Pacific" in the fourth quarter, but geopolitical risks may change the situation in the Middle East and Asia - Pacific [40] - The supply from Russia is at risk due to short - term facility disturbances and long - term regulatory and tariff pressures. The restart of the Iran - Israel conflict may disrupt the supply in the Middle East and Asia - Pacific [42] Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 4.1 Global Crude Oil Supply - Demand Overview - At the end of the third quarter of 2025, the global crude oil market showed a pattern of "supply expansion, demand differentiation, and increased short - term surplus pressure" [44] - On the supply side, OPEC+ completed the voluntary production cut exit plan and started to increase production in September. Non - OPEC supply remained resilient [44] - On the demand side, the global growth rate slowed down, and institutional forecasts were divergent. Asia - Pacific became the core of growth, and the demand for chemical raw materials increased [44] - There was a production - demand surplus in 2025, and the Brent price is expected to oscillate between $55 - 75 per barrel in the long - term [45] 4.2 Global Crude Oil Industry Chain Valuation Tracking - In the third quarter, the crude oil monthly spreads showed a significant differentiation pattern. Brent and WTI maintained a slight Backwardation structure, while Dubai and domestic SC crude oil monthly spreads were weak [48][49] - The regional spreads of crude oil showed a pattern of "strengthening across the Atlantic and reversing in Eurasia". The Brent - WTI spread strengthened, and the Dubai - WTI spread reversed from a premium to a discount [52] 4.3 Crude Oil Downstream Valuation Tracking - In the third quarter, the crude oil cracking spreads showed a clear differentiation of "strong diesel and weak gasoline". The diesel spread may remain high in the short - term, while the gasoline spread is difficult to improve [55] 4.4 Scenario Deduction - Base scenario (probability 60%): The fourth - quarter crude oil market will show a pattern of "basic supply - demand balance, macro - level support but lack of demand highlights". Brent crude oil will oscillate between $60 - 70 per barrel [73][74] - Downward scenario (probability 25%): Triggered by excessive supply growth and weakening demand buffer, Brent crude oil may fall to $58 - 60 per barrel [75] - Upward scenario (probability 15%): Triggered by the resonance of sudden geopolitical events and macro - economic recovery, Brent crude oil may break through $75 per barrel [76] 4.5 Core Conclusions and Tracking Suggestions - The essence of the fourth - quarter crude oil market is the dynamic balance between the actual supply increase and off - balance - sheet demand buffer. Brent crude oil will oscillate between $60 - 70 per barrel without sudden geopolitical supply disruptions or excessive inventory accumulation [78] - Attention should be paid to the risks of economic recession, OPEC+ over - production, and shale oil incremental increase, which may lead to a downward break of the oil price [78]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The ethylene glycol (MEG) price showed a weak trend this week due to weaker - than - expected demand and increased supply from new device launches. The supply - side pressure will continue to increase, and the supply - demand structure is expected to weaken, leading to a downward - trending market price. - Next week, the cost side may see oil prices fluctuate due to geopolitical factors and cooling expectations. The supply side will face greater pressure as more capacity is set to restart than to be under maintenance in October. The demand side is expected to have a light sales performance during and after the holiday. Port inventory is likely to rise slightly in the short term. - Overall, MEG is expected to trade in the range of 4,150 - 4,300 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main View - This week, MEG prices were weak. The reasons were weaker - than - expected demand and new device launches. In September, the downstream polyester and weaving industries had a slow start - up speed. There are still multiple new devices planned for trial runs and some long - shut - down devices are set to restart, increasing supply - side pressure. - Next week, on the cost side, geopolitical disturbances may boost oil prices, but cooling expectations could lead to a fluctuating oil price. On the supply side, more capacity will restart than be under maintenance in October. On the demand side, a 1.1 - million - ton polyester device in South China is restarting and ramping up, with no other major devices planned for restart or maintenance. Some downstream industries plan to reduce their loads during the holiday. In terms of port inventory, imports are expected to be concentrated around the National Day, and port shipments will decline during the holiday, so short - term port inventory may rise slightly. - MEG is expected to trade in the range of 4,150 - 4,300 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: New device launches suppressed the futures market. This week, the trading volume was 544,000 lots, and the open interest was 326,000 lots (a decrease of 31,000 lots). On September 29, the closing price of the MEG main contract was 4,224 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton from September 22, with a change of - 0.38%. The settlement price on September 29 was 4,225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton from September 22, with a change of - 0.56% [8][11][13]. - **Spot Market**: The high - end spot price was 4,363 yuan/ton on September 22, and the low - end was 4,270 yuan/ton on September 23. In different regions, prices in Fujian, Zhangjiagang, and Dongguan decreased by 31 yuan/ton, 61.8 yuan/ton, and 31 yuan/ton respectively. The foreign - market price was 510.1 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton. The average basis this week was 81.25 yuan/ton, compared with 100 yuan/ton last week. The domestic and foreign markets of MEG remained inverted, with a spread of 85 - 110 US dollars/ton [15]. 3.3 MEG Device, Inventory, and Production Profit - **Device Operation**: From September 24 - 29, the comprehensive MEG operating rate was 69.98%, compared with 70.80% from September 17 - 23. The operating rates of petroleum - based, coal - based, and methanol - based production were 74.39%, 63.49%, and 62.43% respectively. During the week, the Zhonghai Shell device returned to normal after a short - term load fluctuation due to an upstream device failure, and the Fujian United and Sanjiang devices adjusted their loads slightly [19][22][24]. - **Production Profit**: The price of thermal coal increased slightly, while the MEG spot price continued to weaken. This week, the profit of coal - based MEG was further compressed. The current profits of MTO, coal - based, and ethylene - based production were - 1,532.58 yuan/ton, 295.13 yuan/ton, and - 128.15 US dollars/ton respectively, compared with - 1,495.10 yuan/ton, 354.69 yuan/ton, and - 139 US dollars/ton in the previous period [31][33]. - **Port Inventory**: There will be many foreign - market arrivals during the holiday, and large ships from Canada and Saudi Arabia will arrive at the port in a concentrated manner. It is expected that the MEG port inventory will increase significantly after the holiday. As of September 25, the MEG port inventory was 398,500 tons, an increase of 29,300 tons from the previous period, with a month - on - month change of 8.53%. Among them, the inventory in Zhangjiagang, Jiangyin, Taicang, Ningbo, Shanghai, and Changshu changed by 14,300 tons, - 2,000 tons, 10,000 tons, 11,000 tons, and - 4,000 tons respectively [35][37]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - **Cost Side**: The slow progress of the Iran nuclear negotiations poses potential support to the oil market due to geopolitical and supply risks [43]. - **Supply and Demand of Downstream Products**: - The average weekly load of polyester factories was 88.35%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 68.49%. The market average prices of semi - bright POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F decreased by 1.63%, 1.26%, and 2.23% respectively. The average price of polyester staple fiber in the East China market decreased by 0.82%, and the average price of polyester bottle chips in the East China region decreased by 0.84%. - As the long holiday approaches, the sentiment of the polyester downstream has changed, leading to an increase in procurement and polyester sales. From September 22 - 28, the average weekly polyester sales were estimated to be over 70%. - Due to polyester promotions, downstream enterprises stocked up, and the inventory of polyester filament decreased this week. As of September 25, the average inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY were 18.80 days, 25.70 days, and 29.50 days respectively. The inventory days of polyester staple fiber remained stable, and the inventory days of polyester chips decreased by 0.69 days [47][56][60].