欧洲央行执行委员会成员伊莎贝尔·施纳贝尔(Isabel Schnabel)表示，对投资者押注欧洲央行下一次利率 动作将是加息感到满意。她表示，虽然借贷成本处于适合维持一段时间的水平(除非出现进一步冲击)， 但消费者支出、企业投资以及国防和基础设施政府支出的大幅增加将提振经济，"市场和调查参与者都 预计下一步利率行动将是加息，尽管不会很快发生。我对这些预期相当满意"。 施纳贝尔是首位明确表示借贷成本不仅处于"有利位置"(如欧洲央行行长拉加德等人反复强调的)、而且 已经触底的欧洲央行政策制定者。这位欧洲央行的鹰派人士认为，经济和通胀风险偏向上行。她暗示， 在12月的政策会议上，新的增长预测可能会被上调。 施纳贝尔的信心源于欧洲承受住了美国总统特朗普引发的关税冲击。消费者从薪资快速增长和失业率接 近历史低位中受益。同时，有利的融资条件以及拥抱人工智能(AI)技术的热潮也提振了投资。 她表示："面对自二战以来国际贸易秩序的最大破坏，经济增长表现出的韧性远超预期。"她指出，调查 显示年底前将呈现"稳健扩张"，"关税影响比预期温和的一个原因是，不确定性下降得相当快"。 欧元区过去11个季度中有7个基点经济增长超出预期 欧 ...

不久前公布的10月货币政策会议纪要显示，会议上，美联储公开市场委员会以10票赞成、2票反对的结果通过降息25个基点的决议。反对者中一名 成员投票支持降息50个基点，另一名成员投票支持维持利率不变。 责编:陶纪燕 | 审核:李震 | 监审:古筝 美国联邦储备委员会定于9日和10日举行货币政策例会并公布议息决定。市场普遍认为，美联储再次降息可能性较大。 市场人士表示，近期美国就业市场数据疲软，美联储很可能在本月降息25个基点，当前国际金融市场走势已体现美联储降息预期。 美联储10月29日宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到3.75%至4.00%之间。这是美联储继9月17日降息25个基点后再次降息，也是自2024 年9月以来第五次降息。 （来源：央视新闻客户端） ...

宏观经济周报 2025 年第 50 周 一、中国宏观 高频：本周 ICHI 综合景气指数小幅回升并重返扩张区间，在前期调整后延续呈 温和修复态势，整体景气水平更趋稳健。从分项来看，消费景气指数在上周短 暂回调后再度回升，显示需求端的修复力量依然稳固，居民消费在政策支持和 季节性因素带动下持续改善。投资景气指数延续前期的平稳调整，小幅收缩， 反映基建与制造业投资的节奏性变化。在政策持续强调扩大有效投资的背景 下，回稳迹象逐步显现，后续仍具改善空间。出口景气指数继续运行在扩张区 间，外需回暖趋势继续巩固，带动国内生产链条形成对整体景气的重要支撑。 生产景气指数本周出现回升，表明在前期基数与节奏波动影响下，生产动能正 在重新累积，制造端活动更加平顺。总体来看，本周综合景气指数的回升反映 经济在经历短期调整后进入再平衡阶段，在政策托底、内需修复与外需改善的 共同作用下，景气水平有望稳步走向温和扩张。 2025 年 11 月中国制造业 PMI 小幅回升至 49.2%，制造业景气边际改善，结构 亮点凸显。产需两端同步改善，生产指数回到临界点。小型企业 PMI 显著回 升，高技术制造业连续 10 个月保持扩张，成为制造业韧 ...

国泰中证500ETF（561350）跟踪的是中证500指数（000905），该指数覆盖医药、电子等成长性行业， 具有均衡的行业分布特征，旨在反映A股市场中小盘上市公司证券的整体表现。 中泰证券指出，随着12月中央经济工作会议临近，政策信号或逐步集中于结构优化与稳定增长两条主 线，2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，财政政策大概率采取更积极姿态，在货币政策受汇率约束、宽松空 间有限的背景下，财政端将承担稳增长主力。在此阶段，市场关注的焦点或在于中央经济工作会议的财 政政策预期，若赤字率和财政支出力度如市场预期般进一步前置，中小市值、弹性更高的可选消费领域 （如文旅、线下零售等）有望获得阶段性交易机会。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

美元指数目前处于10月底以来的低位，这主要受到市场对美联储可能再次调整利率的预期影响。本周美 联储的政策信号成为影响英镑/美元走势的关键因素。交易者普遍采取观望态度，等待更多关于美联储 未来利率路径的明确指引。市场关注焦点集中在即将发布的经济预测更新以及美联储主席在会后新闻发 布会上的表态。 当前阶段，市场认为任何技术性回调都可能成为潜在入场机会，回调幅度预计有限。本周初缺乏重要经 济数据，市场注意力可能转向英国央行货币政策委员会成员的讲话，以寻找短期线索。英镑/美元正处 于关键技术水平附近整理。美元走势受货币政策预期影响，英镑则获得财政政策明朗化支撑。上方阻力 明显，需观察价格能否有效突破移动平均线区域。 未来几个交易日，英镑/美元预计将在现有区间内波动，直至出现新的基本面或技术面催化因素。 英国方面，近期财政预算不确定性的消除为英镑提供了一定支撑。英国财政大臣宣布了一项年度规模达 260亿英镑的财政调整计划，旨在填补财政缺口并建立应对意外情况的缓冲空间。这一举措有助于缓解 市场对英国央行短期内可能调整政策的担忧，从而为英镑/美元汇率提供了基本面支撑。 从技术分析角度来看，英镑/美元目前面临的关键阻力区域在 ...

中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作，审议《中国共产党领导全面依法治国工作条例》。中共中央总书记习近平主持会议。会议强调，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量。明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。要坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场。 ...

美债近日又突破一个里程碑，30.20万亿美元。要知道2018时这个数字还是15万亿美元，7年时间翻了一 倍。其中包含了由全球投资者持有的各种美国国债，若加上政府内部债务，联邦总负债已达38.40万亿 美元， 逼近41.10万亿美元的法定债务上限。 算下来，年支付利息高达1.2万亿美元，相当于新西兰一年的GDP。 三是，外资"口嫌体正直"，外资嘴上看空，但行动上确不断增持美债，比起日债和欧洲，美债显然更具 有吸引力。 2026年，怎么看？ 目前民调显示，选民最不满的是 "支付困境"——物价与收入之间的鸿沟。为挽救支持率，白宫的政策 工具箱已经打开。若民意回升，美联储可能温和降息(如75个基点)，财政以落实减税为主。 债务持续飙升的根源在于长期的收支失衡。美国政府支出与收入之间的缺口持续存在，这是过去二十年 债务不断加剧的原因。而在新冠疫情后情况更趋恶化，因为大量债务是在更高的利率水平下借入的。 IMF警告，美国债务占GDP的比重已达125%，远超对发达经济体建议的100%门槛。IMF预测，到2030 年，将飙升至143.4%，甚至超过意大利和希腊。 但戏剧性的是，美债规模创纪录的同时，回报却也相当丰厚。 这里原 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 晨会纪要（2025/12/08） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.12.08） 宏观及策略研究 海内外经济前瞻指标走弱——宏观经济周报 固定收益研究 重要会议前或以震荡为主——利率债 12 月投资策略展望 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2025/12/08） 宏观及策略研究 海内外经济前瞻指标走弱——宏观经济周报 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、外围环境而言 美国方面，经济前瞻指标延续分化。11 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 不及预期，连续第九个月位于荣枯线下方，显示 制造业仍未摆脱收缩趋势。分项指标也不甚乐观，新订单指数环比降幅创下半年以来最大，需求仍显乏力 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market [2][4][67][68] 2. Report's Core View - Economic downward pressure may rise, and there is a high possibility of a future policy interest rate cut. The CPI rebounded to positive territory year-on-year in October, and the year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed. However, the economic growth pressure remains high, with significant declines in the year-on-year growth rates of investment and consumption. Since 2018, the probability of making profits in the bond market in December has been high. The report continues to clearly be bullish on the bond market [2][67] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - On December 5, 2025, the People's Bank of China conducted a 100 billion yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months (91 days), and another 6 - month - term operation is expected within the month [4][10] - The central bank governor stated in an article that the central bank aims to maintain currency value stability and financial stability. The monetary policy system and the macro - prudential management system are two fundamental tools for macro - management [4][14] - In December 2025, the Bank of Japan signaled a clear interest rate hike, with an 85% probability of raising the policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% at its monthly monetary policy meeting [4][14] 3.2 Meso - level High - frequency Data 3.2.1 Consumption - As of November 30, the average daily retail volume of passenger car manufacturers increased by 2.3% year - on - year, and the average daily wholesale volume increased by 19.3% year - on - year. As of December 5, the total box office revenue of national movies in the past 7 days increased by 290.7% year - on - year. As of November 21, the total retail volume of three major household appliances decreased by 25.0% year - on - year, and the total retail sales decreased by 48.2% year - on - year [9][15][20] 3.2.2 Transportation - As of November 30, the container throughput of ports increased by 16.8% year - on - year, the postal express pick - up volume increased by 2.4% year - on - year, the postal express delivery volume increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the railway freight volume increased by 1.3% year - on - year, and the highway truck traffic volume increased by 3.1% year - on - year. As of December 5, the average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities in the past 7 days increased by 0.6% year - on - year [9][23][26] 3.2.3 Operating Rates - As of December 3, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises increased by 0.5 percentage points year - on - year. As of December 4, the average operating rate of asphalt decreased by 2.0 percentage points year - on - year, the soda ash operating rate decreased by 6.5 percentage points year - on - year, and the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points year - on - year. As of December 5, the average operating rate of PX was 88.5%, and the average operating rate of PTA was 74.1% [9][28][30] 3.2.4 Real Estate - As of December 5, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days decreased by 29.9% year - on - year. As of November 28, the second - hand housing transaction area in 9 sample cities decreased by 24.2% year - on - year [9][33][36] 3.2.5 Prices - As of December 5, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 24.2% year - on - year and 2.1% compared with 4 weeks ago; the average wholesale price of vegetables increased by 17.7% year - on - year and 2.1% compared with 4 weeks ago; the average wholesale price of 6 key fruits increased by 2.4% year - on - year and 3.8% compared with 4 weeks ago. The average price of thermal coal at northern ports decreased by 0.7% year - on - year and increased by 4.4% compared with 4 weeks ago; the average spot price of WTI crude oil decreased by 13.9% year - on - year and 2.2% compared with 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of rebar decreased by 5.4% year - on - year and increased by 2.5% compared with 4 weeks ago; the average spot price of iron ore increased by 0.1% year - on - year and 1.4% compared with 4 weeks ago; the average spot price of glass decreased by 15.3% year - on - year and 1.2% compared with 4 weeks ago [9][40][44] 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On December 5, overnight Shibor decreased by 0.60 BP compared with December 1; R001 increased by 0.06 BP, R007 increased by 0.32 BP; DR001 decreased by 0.59 BP, DR007 decreased by 2.00 BP; IBO001 decreased by 0.53 BP, IBO007 decreased by 4.80 BP. Most government bond yields increased. On December 5, the yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bonds were 1.40%, 1.63%, 1.85%, and 2.26% respectively, compared with November 28, they changed by - 0.1 BP, + 1.6 BP, + 0.6 BP, and + 7.3 BP respectively. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year China Development Bank bonds were 1.63%, 1.84%, 2.01%, and 2.40% respectively, compared with November 28, they increased by 0.8 BP, 3.2 BP, 3.5 BP, and 7.2 BP respectively. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year local government bonds were 1.48%, 1.79%, and 2.06% respectively, compared with November 28, they increased by 2.8 BP, 4.7 BP, and 3.5 BP respectively. The yields of 1 - month and 1 - year AAA and AA + inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.61%, 1.66%, 1.63%, and 1.69% respectively, compared with November 28, they changed by + 16.0 BP, + 1.0 BP, + 16.0 BP, and remained unchanged respectively. As of December 5, 2025, the 10 - year government bond yields of the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Germany were 4.14%, 1.95%, 4.48%, and 2.86% respectively, compared with November 28, they increased by 12 BP, 14 BP, 1 BP, and 9 BP respectively. On December 5, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB were 7.07, compared with November 28, they decreased by 40 and 88 pips respectively [50][53][60] 3.4 Investment Recommendations - The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward. The report is clearly bullish on the bond market. Banks' self - operations focus on government bonds within 10 years, insurance companies' asset allocation and trading desks focus on 30 - year bonds, bond funds focus on 5 - year capital bonds, and bank wealth management products focus on credit bonds below 3 years. From the domestic fundamental perspective, domestic economic data is under pressure, housing prices have further declined, and the current short - term interest rate is too high, so the necessity of a policy interest rate cut has significantly increased. From the external environment, the Fed has started an interest rate cut cycle and may cut interest rates by another 25 BP within the year. Currently, long - term bond yields have reached the highest point of the year, and the probability of making profits is high under the dual influence of domestic and external factors [4][67][68]

债市周周谈：关注大跌后的长债机会 20251207 摘要 2025 年下半年，尽管央行在短端实施宽松政策，经济增速放缓，但债 券收益率反而上升，表明资金面与基本面脱钩，投资累计增速为- 1.7%，四季度单月同比增速更是超过-10%。 近期超长债收益率大幅上升，主要原因是券商自营和基金大量抛售，11 月 20 日至 12 月 5 日两周内，券商自营净卖出超长利率债超 600 亿元， 基金净卖出约 500 亿元，券商还通过借券做空加剧抛售。 截至目前，30 年国债与 10 年国债的期限利差超过 40 个基点，达到近 三年高位，显著高于过去几年 12 至 60 个基点的波动范围，反映了市场 对长端利率的较高风险溢价。 2018 年以来，政府性融资规模显著增加，预计 2025 年将达 13.8 万亿， 导致市场供给大幅增加，新增供应主要集中在政府类证券，优质企业发 新置旧替换贷款加剧信贷数据低迷。 2025 年债券市场主要变化包括政府债券大幅增长（净发行规模增加 2.5 万亿）、非银机构调整持仓和久期，以及超长债供求失衡，银行自营面 临消化新增债券的久期管理问题。 Q&A 2025 年对于债市投资者来说是极其艰难的一 ...