Report Industry Investment Ratings - Pig market strategy: Cautiously bearish [3] - Egg market strategy: Neutral [5] Core Views - The pig market is expected to maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with potential for increased supply pressure in the future [2] - The egg market currently faces a situation of supply exceeding demand in the short term, with weak overall demand [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2509 contract yesterday was 13,600 yuan/ton, a change of +5.00 yuan/ton or +0.04% from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 14.01 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 14.25 yuan/kg, also unchanged; in Sichuan, it was 13.88 yuan/kg, unchanged. The national average wholesale price of pork in agricultural product markets was 20.28 yuan/kg, a 0.1% decrease from yesterday [1] Market Analysis - With decent breeding profits, the supply side is unlikely to make significant strategic adjustments. Constrained by stable downstream consumption, the demand side is expected to remain weak, maintaining a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The supply pressure of large fat pigs is currently high, and there may be a large - scale inversion of the price difference between fat and standard pigs, which will also put pressure on the supply of standard pigs [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2507 contract yesterday was 3,515 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of +682.00 yuan or +24.07% from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.56 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.08 yuan; in Shandong, it was 2.70 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.10 yuan; in Hebei, it was 2.56 yuan/jin, unchanged. On June 10, the national production - link inventory was 1.08 days, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.66 days, an increase of 0.11 days [3] Market Analysis - After the Dragon Boat Festival, all sectors actively cleared inventories, leading to a decline in demand. After the college entrance examination this week, school demand decreased, while tourism and catering demand increased. However, due to high temperature and humidity, the storage time of eggs is reduced, and traders are cautious in purchasing, resulting in weak overall demand. The market pattern of supply exceeding demand is difficult to change in the short term [4] Strategy - Neutral [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The majority of energy and chemical varieties have seen a decline after reaching a high, and the market remains uncertain [1]. - Most of the varieties analyzed have a bearish medium - term outlook, with varying short - term trends [2]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Logic**: Medium - term, there is a strong expectation of oversupply due to OPEC+ accelerating production increases. Short - term, geopolitical factors (unresolved US - Iran negotiations) and a warming macro - environment have pushed up oil prices, but the medium - term fundamental pressure is heavy [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: Medium - term, it has a downward structure on the daily chart; short - term, an upward structure on the hourly chart. Today's trading continued to rise but with insufficient trading volume. The short - term support is at 474. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle for the short - term support to break [4]. EB (Styrene) - **Logic**: The cost side (pure benzene) has high port inventories and strong import increment expectations. Styrene port inventories are rising, supply is expected to remain high, and demand has not improved. It is bearish in the medium term [5][8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The short - term downward structure on the hourly chart is being tested. Today, it continued to rise and broke through the short - term pressure at 7270, showing signs of a trend reversal. The strategy is to take profit on short positions and then wait and see on the hourly cycle [8]. Rubber - **Logic**: The price of Thai rubber latex has dropped nearly 20% in the past two weeks, indicating an increase in supply after the main producing areas started harvesting. Terminal demand is weak due to high inventories in the automotive and tire industries. The possibility of a squeeze on 20 - rubber futures has decreased. It is bearish in the medium term [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a downward structure on both the daily and hourly charts. Today, it fluctuated within the day, with the price rising and then falling. The short - term pressure is at 14000. The strategy is to stop loss on short positions and then look for new opportunities on the hourly cycle [10]. Synthetic Rubber (BR Rubber) - **Logic**: The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are average. The supply of butadiene, its raw material, is expected to increase due to the planned commissioning of cracking units in June and the second half of the year. High tire inventories are suppressing demand. It is bearish in the medium term [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a downward structure on both the daily and hourly charts. Today, it fluctuated within the day, and the short - term pressure is at 11470. The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit reference of 11470 on the hourly cycle [13]. PX - **Logic**: Supply - side profits have recovered, and PX units are restarting. Downstream PTA units are also resuming production. There are many maintenance plans in July, so the supply is expected to contract. The fundamentals are strong, but the cost - side drive from crude oil should be noted [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a downward structure on the hourly chart. Today, it rose and then fell, with the increase in positions and price gains erased. The short - term pressure is between 6630 - 6660. The strategy is to look for opportunities to short after the rebound ends on the hourly cycle [16]. PTA - **Logic**: Supply - side units that were under maintenance are restarting, and the operating rate has risen to 78.97%. Demand - side polyester profits are weak, and the operating rate has slightly declined to 91.3%. There is no short - term inventory accumulation pressure, but the supply - demand situation has weakened compared to before. The impact of crude oil should be noted [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a downward structure on the hourly chart. Today, it rose and then fell, with the increase in positions and price gains erased. The upper pressure is at 4720. The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - loss reference of 4720 on the hourly cycle [17]. PP - **Logic**: Demand is weak in the off - season, and there are large - scale unit commissioning plans in June, so the supply is expected to increase. The cost fluctuations following crude oil need to be monitored [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a downward structure on the hourly chart. Today, it fluctuated within the day, and the rebound did not break through the pressure and then fell. The short - term upper pressure is at 6980. The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit reference of 6980 on the hourly cycle [19]. Methanol - **Logic**: High domestic unit profits have kept the domestic operating rate at a historical high, and imports have increased, leading to inventory accumulation. There is significant medium - term pressure on the market [23]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a downward structure on the daily chart and an upward structure on the hourly chart. Today, it rose and then fluctuated within the day. The short - term support has moved up to 2260. The strategy is to wait and see for an opportunity to short after the support is broken on the hourly cycle [23]. PVC - **Logic**: In the real - estate downturn cycle, the downstream operating rate of PVC has reached the lowest level in the same period of previous years, and export demand has weakened. The supply - side operating rate is around the average of previous years. The fundamentals are bearish [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a downward structure on both the daily and hourly charts. Today, it fluctuated within the day. The short - term pressure is at 4980. The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - loss reference of 4850 on the hourly cycle [24]. EG (Ethylene Glycol) - **Logic**: Supply - side domestic unit unexpected maintenance has increased, and imports have decreased, leading to a tightened supply. Demand - side short - term polyester demand is acceptable. Inventory reduction provides some short - term support, and the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a downward structure on both the daily and hourly charts. Today, it fluctuated within the day without changing the downward trend. The short - term pressure has moved down to 4295. The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit reference of 4295 on the hourly cycle [27]. Plastic - **Logic**: Recently, there have been many unit maintenance, keeping the overall operating rate low in the short term. However, there are large - scale unit commissioning plans in June and the second half of the year, so the supply is expected to increase. It is bearish in the medium term [31]. - **Technical Analysis**: It has a downward structure on both the daily and hourly charts. Today, it rose and then fell, but the hourly closing price once broke through the short - term pressure at 7120. Although it fell back with a reduction in positions at the end of the session, the short - term downward structure is being tested. The strategy is to hold short positions, take profit as planned, and then wait and see on the hourly cycle [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The pig market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, with the price under pressure in the short - term and facing supply pressure in the fourth quarter. The egg market has a seasonal weakening in demand, and the supply is expected to increase in the third quarter. The corn market has intensified supply - demand competition, with short - term price support and long - term upward drive but limited upside space [4][5][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pig 3.1.1 Period - Spot End - As of June 6, the national spot price was 14.26 yuan/kg, down 0.36 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 14.09 yuan/kg, down 0.27 yuan/kg; the futures price of live pigs 2509 was 13460 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan/ton; the 09 - contract basis was 630 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton [4][15]. 3.1.2 Supply End - From May to November 2024, the inventory of breeding sows increased steadily, and the performance improved. In the case of stable epidemics, the supply from May to September showed an increasing trend. Although the production capacity has been reduced, the overall reduction is limited. In June, the pressure of live pig slaughter is still high. The proportion of small pig slaughter decreased, and the proportion of large pig slaughter increased slightly. The average slaughter weight continued to decline [4]. 3.1.3 Demand End - The weekly slaughter start - up rate and slaughter volume both declined. After the Dragon Boat Festival, demand fell, and downstream demand was poor. The cold - storage market demand was dull, but the cold - storage inventory was low, and the enthusiasm for cold - storage warehousing might increase as the pig price continued to fall [4]. 3.1.4 Cost End - The weekly piglet price dropped slightly, the price of binary breeding sows was stable, the feed cost was low, and the breeding profits of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets increased slightly [4]. 3.1.5 Weekly Summary - In June, the pressure of live pig slaughter is still high, and the overall consumption is difficult to perform well. The pig price still has a risk of decline, but the entry enthusiasm of secondary fattening and low cold - storage inventory limits the decline. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still large, and the forward price rebound is under pressure [4]. 3.1.6 Strategy Suggestion - The futures price is at a discount. In the short - term, it fluctuates at a low level. Wait for the price to rebound to the resistance level and then go short [4]. 3.2 Egg 3.2.1 Period - Spot End - As of June 6, the average price of the main egg - producing areas was 2.83 yuan/jin, down 0.12 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price of the main egg - selling areas was 2.88 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin; the main egg contract 2507 closed at 2859 yuan/500 kg, down 79 yuan/500 kg; the basis of the main contract was - 279 yuan/500 kg, up 79 yuan/500 kg. The egg price is expected to run weakly and stably in the future [5]. 3.2.2 Supply End - In June, the number of newly - opened laying hens was relatively high. The current market supply is still relatively sufficient, which exerts pressure on the egg price. In the long - term, the supply is expected to increase in the third quarter, but the number of newly - opened laying hens may decrease in the fourth quarter [5]. 3.2.3 Demand End - After the Dragon Boat Festival, the demand for replenishment and cold - storage warehousing increased, which supported the egg price, but the demand for eggs decreased seasonally, and the substitution consumption had support [5]. 3.2.4 Weekly Summary - In the short - term, the egg price has certain support, but the demand weakens seasonally, and the supply is still sufficient, which exerts pressure on the egg price. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to increase in the third quarter. In the long - term, the supply pressure may be relieved in the fourth quarter [5]. 3.2.5 Strategy Suggestion - Temporarily wait and see for the 07 contract, be cautious about bottom - fishing; treat the 08 and 09 contracts bearishly, wait for the price to rebound and then go short; pay attention to the opportunity of going long at a low price for the 10 contract [5]. 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Period - Spot End - As of June 6, the closing price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2310 yuan/ton, stable compared with last Friday; the main corn contract 2507 closed at 2340 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton; the main basis was - 30 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. The corn price is expected to run narrowly in the future [6]. 3.3.2 Supply End - The listing of new wheat puts pressure on the corn price, and traders' willingness to sell corn increases, but the supply from the grass - roots level is basically over, and the inventory in the north and south ports is in the process of reduction, which supports the spot price [6]. 3.3.3 Demand End - The increase in livestock and poultry inventory drives the increase in feed demand, but the narrowing of the corn - wheat price difference makes downstream buyers prefer wheat, and the deep - processing industry is in a loss state, with limited demand growth [7]. 3.3.4 Weekly Summary - In the short - term, the supply - demand competition in the corn market intensifies, and the price has support. In the long - term, the supply - demand relationship tightens, and the price has an upward drive, but the upside space is limited [8]. 3.3.5 Strategy Suggestion - Treat the overall trend as stable and slightly strong. The 07 contract fluctuates at a high level, and go long at the lower limit of the range. Pay attention to the 7 - 9 positive spread [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the pig price will fluctuate and adjust with a risk of decline; in the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is large and the forward price rebound is under pressure. Egg prices are under pressure in the third quarter and the supply pressure may ease in the fourth quarter. Palm oil shows short - term rebound but has limited long - term upside. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil also have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. Domestic soybean meal is expected to be range - bound in the short - term and trend moderately stronger in the long - term. Corn prices are expected to be moderately stronger, with short - term support and long - term upward drive but limited upside due to substitutes [1][2][7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Pig - **Spot price**: On June 4, the spot price in Liaoning was 13.9 - 14.2 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Henan, it was 14.1 - 14.5 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 14.1 - 14.3 yuan/kg, stable; in Guangdong, it was 15.2 - 15.8 yuan/kg, stable [1]. - **Market situation**: In June, the pig supply pressure is large, the demand is in the off - season, and the overall consumption is weak. However, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening and frozen product inventory entry still exists, limiting the decline of pig prices. In the long - term, the supply from June to September 2024 will increase, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still large [1]. - **Strategy**: The futures price is at a low level and fluctuates in the short - term. Wait to short at the resistance level after the rebound. The resistance and support levels for different contracts are given [1]. 2. Egg - **Spot price**: On June 4, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 2.7 yuan/jin, stable; in Beijing, it was 3.02 yuan/jin, stable [2]. - **Market situation**: After the Dragon Boat Festival, the demand weakens, and the egg price support is limited. In the medium - term, the supply in the future may increase due to high replenishment in March - April 2025. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter may ease [2]. - **Strategy**: For the 07 contract, wait and see; for the 08 and 09 contracts, be bearish in general; for the 10 contract, look for long opportunities at low prices [2]. 3. Oil Palm oil - **Futures price**: On June 3, the Malaysian palm oil main 8 - month contract rose 1.44% to 3934 ringgit/ton [2]. - **Market situation**: In May, the export of Malaysian palm oil improved, the production increase slowed down, and the inventory accumulation was expected to slow down. The inventory in Indonesia decreased, and India has the demand to replenish inventory. In the long - term, the production will increase seasonally until October. In China, the palm oil inventory has recovered and will continue to rise [3][4]. - **Strategy**: The 08 contract may rebound in the short - term, pay attention to the performance at the 8000 resistance level. The 09 contract will fluctuate in the range of 7800 - 8300 [4][7]. Soybean oil - **Futures price**: On June 3, the US soybean oil main 7 - month contract rose 1.25% to 46.81 cents/pound [2]. - **Market situation**: The US biofuel blending plan is about to be announced. The US soybean fundamentals are mixed. In China, the soybean arrival volume from May to July is large, and the soybean oil inventory has increased, with a strong expectation of inventory accumulation [5]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract will fluctuate in the range of 7500 - 8000 [7]. Rapeseed oil - **Market situation**: The demand for Canadian rapeseed crushing and export is strong, and the old - crop inventory is declining. The new - crop sowing is normal. In China, the inventory is at a high level, and the supply pressure is large. Pay attention to the changes in China - Canada relations [6]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract will fluctuate in the range of 9200 - 9500 [7]. 4. Soybean Meal - **Futures price**: On June 3, the US soybean 07 contract rose 7.25 cents to 1040.75 cents/bushel. The domestic soybean meal M2509 contract closed at 2935 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market situation**: In the short - term, the US soybean price is expected to fluctuate. In China, the soybean arrival increases, and the spot price is expected to be weak. In the long - term, the domestic soybean meal price will trend moderately stronger [7][8]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract will be range - bound in the short - term, and go long on dips after mid - June [8]. 5. Corn - **Spot price**: On June 3, the new corn purchase price at Jinzhou Port was 2280 yuan/ton, stable; the平仓 price was 2320 yuan/ton. The purchase price at Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2460 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market situation**: In the short - term, the supply increases, but the price has support. In the long - term, the supply - demand is tightening, but the upside is limited due to substitutes [8]. - **Strategy**: Be moderately bullish. The 07 contract will fluctuate at a high level, and go long at the lower edge of the range. Pay attention to the 7 - 9 positive spread arbitrage [8]. 6. Today's Futures Market Overview - The table shows the prices, price changes of various futures and spot products such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. on the previous trading day and the day before the previous trading day [9].

而中粮期货在一篇报告中强调该偏差出现的重点在于宏观面和需求端。该机构分析称，泰国原料价格走 强已经维持了一个多月，而期货价格在清明节大跌之后，只是出现了反弹与横盘，并没有开启实质的反 弹。盘面格局与供应端不符，形成了偏差，这意味着市场关注的焦点并不在供应端，而在于宏观面与橡 胶需求预期。"橡胶需求面临的核心挑战在于，美国轮胎关税成本上升导致美国轮胎需求下滑。" 广发期货研究员寇帝斯也表示，尽管目前中国出口至美国的轮胎占中国轮胎出口量的比重较低，但对中 国轮胎短期内依然产生一定的负面影响。 此外，5月21日，欧盟委员会发布公告，正式对进口自中国的新乘用车及轻卡充气橡胶轮胎启动反倾销 调查。中银期货研报指出，欧盟为我国乘用车胎重要出口目的地，该举措将影响到中国轮胎出口前景， 进而掣肘橡胶的中长期需求。 新华财经北京5月29日电 在供强需弱预期下，近期天然橡胶价格持续下滑，截至29日下午收盘，RU主 力合约价格进一步下探至13725元／吨。 展望后市，机构普遍认为供应大幅放量下，天然橡胶维持震荡偏弱态势。泰国橡胶管理局此前宣布将 2025年度橡胶开割季向后推迟1个月至6月，产区多雨过后供应输出增多，原料压力或将逐渐 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On May 28th, the four major A-share stock indices declined. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.02% to 3339.93 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.26% to 10003.27 points, the ChiNext Index decreased 0.31% to 1985.38 points, and the STAR 50 Index slipped 0.23% to 970.64 points. Market trading volume was 1.0339 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.8 billion yuan from the previous day. In the industry sectors, textile and apparel (+1.17%), environmental protection (+0.89%), and coal (+0.74%) led the gains, while basic chemicals (-0.79%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-0.78%), and national defense and military industry (-0.72%) led the losses. In terms of market strength, IF > IH > IC > IM, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1,750/181/3,477 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net capital inflows of -5.8 billion, -12.8 billion, 2.1 billion, and 16.5 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -2.9 billion, -1 billion, +2.5 billion, and +1.4 billion yuan respectively [2]. - On May 28th, most yields of treasury bond futures declined. Among the actively traded contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.376, unchanged from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.497, also unchanged; the ten - year bond was 1.618, down 0.7 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 1.985, down 0.1 bps [3]. 2. Core Views - For stock index futures, it is speculated that the deep discount of small - cap stock indices recently is due to the expansion of neutral product scale since this year. As the bond bull market has not restarted, the proportion of short positions in neutral products may still be high, so the deep discount may continue. It is recommended to go long on the economy, and it is advisable to allocate IF, IC, IM forward contracts on dips. For near - month contracts, there is a risk of a decline in micro - cap stocks, which may drag down the IC and IM indices, so caution is advised [2]. - For treasury bond futures, although the current spot bonds show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, this pattern is expected to change in the future. The government bond net supply rhythm may slow down in June, the long - term liability cost of insurance may be lowered in July, and the domestic market risk preference has returned to a defensive style, which may increase the demand for bond market allocation. It is recommended to go long in the short - term and short in the long - term, buy T and TL contracts on dips in the short - term, and hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the long - term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - The table shows the performance of stock index futures and spot markets, including details such as code, name, price changes, trading volume, open interest, and basis. For example, for IC2506, the price change was -0.26%, the current price was 5568.0 points, and the basis was 69.2 points [5]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - The table presents the performance of treasury bond futures and spot markets, including code, name, price changes, trading volume, net basis, and CTD bond implied interest rates. For instance, for TS2506, the price change was -0.01%, the current price was 102.2 points, and the net basis was 0.0 [6]. 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that this month, the prosperity of imports and exports and social activities has declined, while the real estate market has improved [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar showed a weak performance, with a daily decline of 1.23%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. Currently, the contradiction in the fundamentals of rebar is continuously accumulating under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. Coupled with weak market sentiment, steel prices will continue to seek the bottom weakly. Attention should be paid to the change in demand [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil declined weakly, with a daily decline of 1.33%, trading volume decreased and open interest increased. At present, the supply of hot-rolled coil has shrunk, but the sustainability is questionable, and the corresponding demand is weakening. The fundamentals have not improved under the situation of weak supply and demand. Coupled with weakening market sentiment, hot-rolled coil prices are under pressure and running weakly. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated downward, with a daily decline of 1.76%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, the fundamentals of iron ore are weakening under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, and ore prices continue to be under pressure and run weakly. The relatively favorable factor is that the futures price discount is large, so there is resistance to decline. In the short term, under the dominance of bearish factors, it is expected that ore prices will continue to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the decline in molten iron production [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - From January to April, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 2.11702 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4% (calculated on a comparable basis). Among them, the total profit of state-owned holding enterprises was 702.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%; that of joint-stock enterprises was 1.55964 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.1%; that of foreign-invested and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan-invested enterprises was 542.92 billion yuan, an increase of 2.5%; and that of private enterprises was 570.68 billion yuan, an increase of 4.3% [6]. - According to the latest production schedule report of three major white goods released by Industrial Online, the total planned production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators and washing machines in June 2025 is 35.15 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%. Specifically, the planned production volume of household air conditioners in June is 20.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%; that of refrigerators is 7.9 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%; and that of washing machines is 6.75 million units, the same as the actual production volume of the previous year [7]. - On May 26, 2025, the Australian Anti-Dumping Commission issued Announcement No. 2025/043, stating that in response to the application submitted by Baowu Group Echeng Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., a Chinese exporter, it initiated an anti-dumping review investigation on steel reinforcing bars with a diameter of 50 mm or less exported to Australia. The investigation period for dumping is from April 1, 2024, to March 31, 2025. The Australian Customs codes of the涉案 products are 7213.10.00.42, 7214.20.00.47, etc. The Australian Anti-Dumping Commission expects to complete the basic fact report of this investigation no later than September 15, 2025, and submit the final ruling report to the Australian Minister for Industry and Science no later than October 28, 2025 [8]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot-rolled coil, Tangshan billet, and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap all decreased. The national average price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) dropped by 15 yuan to 3,246 yuan; the national average price of hot-rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) dropped by 24 yuan to 3,276 yuan; the price of Tangshan billet (Q235) dropped by 20 yuan to 2,900 yuan; and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) dropped by 40 yuan to 2,080 yuan. The price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port dropped by 6 yuan to 734 yuan, while the price of Tangshan iron concentrate remained unchanged at 738 yuan. The freight rates from Australia and Brazil changed slightly, and the prices of SGX swaps and the Platts Index also decreased [9]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures main contract was 2,980 yuan, a decline of 1.23%, with a trading volume of 1,935,755 lots and an increase in open interest of 50,834 lots. The closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures main contract was 3,111 yuan, a decline of 1.33%, with a trading volume of 694,483 lots and an increase in open interest of 42,818 lots. The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract was 698.5 yuan, a decline of 1.76%, with a trading volume of 455,965 lots and a decrease in open interest of 10,680 lots [11]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes in rebar and hot-rolled coil inventories, total inventories of rebar and hot-rolled coil (steel mills + social inventories), national 45-port iron ore inventories, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventories, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventories. It also includes charts related to steel mill production, such as the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills, and the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces [13][26]. 5. Future Market Outlook - Rebar: There are changes in both supply and demand. Construction steel mills are actively producing, and the weekly output of rebar increased by 49,500 tons compared with the previous week. Supply continues to rise and is at a high level this year. Meanwhile, the demand for rebar has weakened again, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 131,600 tons compared with the previous week, and the high-frequency daily trading volume also decreasing. Both are still at low levels in recent years. The weak demand will still suppress steel prices. In general, the contradiction in the fundamentals of rebar is continuously accumulating under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, and steel prices will continue to be under pressure. Coupled with weak market sentiment, steel prices will continue to seek the bottom weakly. Attention should be paid to the change in demand [33]. - Hot-rolled coil: Both supply and demand have weakened. Plate steel mills have increased maintenance, and the output of hot-rolled coil has continued to decline, with a week-on-week decrease of 63,000 tons. Supply has dropped to a relatively low level, but the profit per ton of the product is still acceptable, and production will resume in the future. The positive effect needs to be followed up. Meanwhile, the demand for hot-rolled coil has weakened, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 164,700 tons compared with the previous week, and the high-frequency trading volume also shrinking. The relatively positive factor is that the production of the main downstream cold-rolled products remains at a high level, and the risk of external demand has temporarily eased, so the demand contraction space is limited. However, attention should be paid to the intensification of contradictions in the cold-rolled industry. At present, the supply of hot-rolled coil has shrunk, but the sustainability is questionable, and the corresponding demand is weakening. The fundamentals have not improved under the situation of weak supply and demand. Coupled with weakening market sentiment, hot-rolled coil prices are under pressure and running weakly. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [33]. - Iron ore: There are changes in both supply and demand. Steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline. The average daily molten iron output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills decreased again last week. The relatively positive factor is that they are still at a relatively high level this year, but the traditional off-season of the steel market is approaching, and it is difficult to support high molten iron production, so it will continue to decline in the future, and the positive effect on the demand side is weakening. Meanwhile, the arrival of goods at domestic ports has continued to decline, leading to a good reduction in port inventories, but the shipments of overseas miners have increased significantly, reaching the second highest in a single week this year. According to the shipping schedule, the arrival of Australian ore will increase in the future, and domestic mines are actively producing, so the pressure on ore supply is still relatively large. In general, the fundamentals of iron ore are weakening under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, and ore prices continue to be under pressure and run weakly. The relatively favorable factor is that the futures price discount is large, so there is resistance to decline. In the short term, under the dominance of bearish factors, it is expected that ore prices will continue to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the decline in molten iron production [34].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is to treat the market with a bias towards short positions in a volatile market [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report suggests still taking a short - selling approach on rebounds [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Information Cost and Profit - On May 26, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton compared to last Friday. The average profit was - 123 yuan/ton, and the valley - electricity profit was - 19 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton compared to last Friday [2] Automobile Sales - In April, Chinese - brand passenger cars sold a total of 1.571 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 23.5%. They accounted for 70.7% of the total passenger car sales, with the sales share increasing by 7.1 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2] Shipbuilding Orders - In April, the global new orders were 111 ships, totaling 4,532,855 CGT. Chinese shipyards received 55 ships, totaling 2,601,584 CGT, accounting for 57.39% of the global new ship orders [2] Market Situation - The finished product market continued its downward trend yesterday. The main contract of rebar once fell below 3,000, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil fell below the previous low. The market had few bright spots, and the trade disputes between Europe and the United States intensified the pessimistic sentiment in the macro - market. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is good, and the enterprise operating rate and molten iron output are at relatively high levels, but downstream demand has not improved significantly and is likely to decline after entering the seasonal off - season, showing a situation of strong supply and weak demand [2] Suggestion - The industry should be treated with a bias towards short positions in a volatile market, and still take a short - selling approach on rebounds [2][3] Later Concerns - Macro policies and downstream demand conditions should be concerned [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Regarding stock index futures, it is speculated that the deep discount of small - cap stock indexes recently is due to the scale expansion of neutral products this year. With the bond bull market not restarted, the high proportion of short positions in neutral products may keep the deep discount. The report maintains the judgment of being bullish on the economy, recommends buying IF, IC, and IM forward contracts on dips, and advises caution with near - month contracts of IC and IM due to the potential decline risk of micro - cap stocks [3]. - For treasury bond futures, although the current situation of bond spot market shows strong supply and weak demand, it is expected to change. Factors include the increase in government bond maturity in June, the possible reduction of long - term liability costs of insurance in July, and the return of domestic market risk preference to a defensive style. It is suggested to take a short - term long and medium - to - long - term short strategy, buying T and TL on dips in the short term and hedging T and TL on rallies in the long term [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures Spot and Futures Market Performance - On May 26, most of the four major A - share stock indexes declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.05% to 3346.84 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.41% to 10091.16 points, the ChiNext Index decreased 0.8% to 2005.26 points, while the Sci - tech Innovation 50 Index rose 0.17% to 982.26 points. Market trading volume was 1.0339 trillion yuan, a decrease of 148.7 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, media, computer, and environmental protection led the gains, while automobile, pharmaceutical biology, and comprehensive sectors led the losses [2]. - The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts were 195.39, 153.86, 68.31, and 47.22 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 20.77%, - 17.4%, - 11.34%, and - 11.21%. The three - year historical quantiles were 3%, 3%, 2%, and 8% respectively, indicating that the futures - spot price difference remained at a low level [2]. (2) Treasury Bond Futures Spot and Futures Market Performance - On May 26, the yields of treasury bond futures declined. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond decreased by 173 bps to 1.356, the five - year bond by 373 bps to 1.488, the ten - year bond remained flat at 1.638, and the thirty - year bond decreased by 79 bps to 1.968 [3]. - For the current active 2509 contract, the CTD bonds, yield changes, net basis, and IRR for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are provided. The central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 24.7 billion yuan [4]. (3) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that this month, the prosperity of imports and exports and social activities declined, while the real estate prosperity increased [12].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests treating the market with a bearish bias in a range-bound manner and still considering shorting on rebounds [2][3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the macro sentiment stabilizes, the industry's fundamental pattern of strong supply and weak demand exerts pressure on prices. Currently, steel mills have decent profits, with overall high operating rates and production levels. However, downstream demand is gradually entering the off-season [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Information - From January to April, China's cumulative crude steel production was 345.35 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [2] - On May 19, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,326 yuan per ton, a decrease of 9 yuan per ton compared to last Friday. The average profit was a loss of 95 yuan per ton, and the valley electricity profit was 10 yuan per ton [2] - In April 2025, the total sales of various graders were 756 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%. Domestic sales were 140 units, a year-on-year increase of 42.9%, and export volume was 616 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.6% [2] - The finished products fluctuated and declined yesterday, and the market did not change much [2]