2025 年 04 月 28 日 业绩密集披露期，整体反馈符合预期 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：肖燕南 | S1050123060024 | | xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：张倩 | S1050124070037 | zhangqian@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 食品饮料(申万) | -0.9 | 6.4 | -8.1 | | 沪深 300 | -3.3 | -0.8 | 5.7 | 市场表现 -10 0 10 20 (%) 食品饮料 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -30 相关研究 1、《食品饮料行业周报：社零数据 超预期暨一季度业绩前瞻》2025- 04-21 2、《食品饮料行业点评报告：内需 持续释放，3 月社零数据超预期》 2025-04-18 3、《食品饮料行业周报：外围环境 持续承压，期待消费需求回暖》 ...

点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 2025年3月在"双新"政策以及地方促消费政策的拉动下延续旺季市场走势，终端需求持续释放，中国汽车 流通协会乘用车市场信息联席分会数据显示，3月狭义乘用车零售193.7万辆，同比14.3%，环比39.9%，处于近 年来较高水平。其中新能源全月零售99.1万，渗透率爬升至51.2%左右水平，市场结构呈现出明显的节后市场 特征。一季度狭义乘用车销量511.7万辆，同比5.8%，新能源销量241.9万，同比36.4%，渗透率47.3%。 4月车市展望 由于"两新"政策的拉动，春节后市场热度较高，各地方也于三月底起密集出台促消费政策，4月上半月整 体车市仍维持3月底人气，同比平稳增长。 一、厂商销售动向 最新调研结果显示，4月月中整体车市折扣率约为23.7%，较3月底略有回收。零售量占总市场近八成的头 部厂商本月零售目标同比去年4月增长7.1%，较上月目标环比降幅约为10%，综合估算本月狭义乘用车零售总 市场约为175万辆左右，同比去年增长14.4%，环比上月-9.8%，新能源零售预计可达90万，渗透率51.4%。 二、周度走势推算 4月第1周恰逢清明假期，日均零售3.49万辆，同比2 ...

乘联分会数据显示，4月1-20日，全国乘用车市场零售89.7万辆，同比去年4月同期增长12%，较上月同期下降9%，今年以来累计零售602.4万辆，同比去期增 长7%;4月1-20日，全国乘用车厂商批发99.3万辆，同比去年4月同期增长14%，较上月同期下降12%，今年以来累计批发727.1万辆，同比增长12%。 4月1-20日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售47.8万辆，同比去年4月同期增长20%，较上月同期下降11%，零售渗透率53.3%，今年以来累计零售289.8万辆，同 比增长33%;4月1-20日，全国乘用车厂商新能源批发53万辆，同比去年4月同期增长23%，较上月同期下降7%，批发渗透率53.3%，今年以来累计批发337.8万 辆，同比增长39%。 1.2025年4月全国乘用车零售市场平稳 | | 1-6日 | 7-13日 | 14-20日 | 21-27日 | 28-30日 | 1-20 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 23年 | 37,304 | 43,954 | 53,718 | 70,151 | 75,291 | | | 24年 | ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the consumer sector, suggesting a gradual improvement in the fundamentals of the industry in 2025 [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - The consumer sector has shown a steady recovery, with March retail sales increasing by 5.9% year-on-year, driven by effective policies such as the trade-in program [4]. - The report highlights the importance of government policies in boosting domestic consumption, especially in the context of ongoing trade tensions [4]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in various segments, including duty-free, emotional consumption, and tourism-related industries [4]. Summary by Sections Market Weekly Review - The consumer sector experienced an overall increase, with textile and apparel, beauty care, food and beverage, retail, home appliances, and social services showing weekly gains of +1.57%, +0.43%, +0.24%, +0.24%, +0.18%, and +0.14% respectively [4]. - Notable stock performances included Anji Food (+50.00%), Haidar (+17.38%), and Guoguang Chain (+61.10%) [4]. - March retail sales reached a total of 5.9% year-on-year growth, with significant contributions from essential consumer goods [4]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments released a work plan focusing on enhancing service consumption, proposing 48 specific measures to improve service quality and stimulate consumption [4][15]. - Companies like Juewei Foods and Encounter Small Noodles are expanding rapidly, with Encounter Small Noodles achieving a compound annual growth rate of 66.2% from 2022 to 2024 [15][16]. - The report notes that the trade-in policy has significantly boosted sales in home appliances, with over 35.7 million units sold, generating sales of approximately 124.7 billion yuan [4][17].

Group 1 - The company reported a total revenue of 2.768 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a decrease of 7.24% compared to the same period last year [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 157 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.15%, with investment income contributing 35 million yuan, down 9.33% [6] - The company has actively responded to the national policy to boost consumption by issuing "Red Flag Chain Benefit Cards" to provide discounts to consumers [5] Group 2 - The company experienced a 32.35% decrease in prepaid expenses compared to the end of the previous year, primarily due to a reduction in procurement amounts [7] - Employee compensation payable decreased by 34.56%, mainly due to the distribution of year-end bonuses [8] - Taxes payable increased by 46.17% compared to the end of the previous year, primarily due to income tax provisions [9] Group 3 - Other income saw a significant decline of 80.95%, mainly due to a decrease in re-employment subsidies [10] - The net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 137.39% year-on-year, attributed to intensified promotional activities and competition in the market [10]

2025.04. 15 本文字数：1614，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈君君 央行近日公布的3月金融数据显示，信贷和社融规模均超出市场预期。 数据显示，今年一季度，人民币贷款总额达到9.78万亿元，其中3月单月新增人民币贷款3.64万亿 元；同期，社会融资规模增量累计为15.18万亿元，3月社融规模增量达到5.89万亿元。 从居民和企业部门的信贷结构来看，存在差异。居民部门的中长期贷款表现较为亮眼，但消费整体仍 待进一步复苏。与此同时，企业部门的短期贷款因季节性等因素出现超预期增长。 面对美国关税政策的严峻外部挑战，业内人士分析认为，未来还需要进一步加大政策力度，以提振居 民消费信心。除了实施短期补贴外，还应着力增加就业机会和居民收入，通过消费来带动经济的内生 循环。 楼市"小阳春"带动居民中长贷回暖 3月，居民信贷需求有所升温，但短期和中长期贷款需求呈现出不同态势。其中，居民中长期信贷需 求处于近5年来相对较好的水平，3月居民中长期信贷增加5047亿元，同比多增531亿元。 市场分析人士认为，3月房地产市场迎来了"小阳春"，整体表现较为突出，尤其是二手房成交情况显 著优于新房，这一现象在一定程 ...

CPI Analysis - March CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.1%, an improvement of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased to 0.5% year-on-year from -0.1% in the previous month[11] - Food CPI year-on-year was -1.4%, a narrowing of the decline by 1.9 percentage points compared to last month[10] PPI Analysis - March PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.5%, with a month-on-month decline of 0.4%[17] - Production materials prices fell by 2.8% year-on-year, with the largest drop in the mining industry, particularly coal and oil extraction[17] - Living materials prices decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, a further decline of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[17] Future Outlook - April CPI is expected to see a slight year-on-year increase, primarily driven by food, services, and consumer goods[24] - The overall inflation target of 2% for the year remains distant, with new consumption policies anticipated to provide some support[24] - April PPI is likely to remain under pressure due to ongoing trade tensions and weak domestic demand, with a focus on expanding internal demand and stabilizing growth policies[25]

Inflation Analysis - March CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.1%, improving by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month[5] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose to 0.5% in March from -0.1% in February, indicating a recovery in consumer demand[10] - Food CPI year-on-year was -1.4%, but the decline narrowed by 1.9 percentage points compared to the previous month[9] PPI Trends - March PPI year-on-year fell by 2.5%, with production materials down by 2.8%, marking an increase in the decline by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[16] - The coal mining and oil extraction sectors experienced the largest declines, with coal mining PPI down by 14.9% year-on-year[18] - Manufacturing and construction sectors showed seasonal demand expansion, but overall industrial demand remains weak, impacting PPI negatively[23] Future Outlook - April CPI is expected to see a slight year-on-year increase, primarily driven by food and service sectors, but seasonal factors may lead to a decline in food prices[22] - PPI is anticipated to remain under pressure due to ongoing trade tensions and weak domestic demand, with potential policy adjustments to stimulate growth[23]

Group 1: Economic Environment and Policy Changes - The March PMI showed a steady upward trend, alleviating previous concerns about small businesses and construction resumption post-holiday[4] - The focus of consumption policies has shifted towards pre-consumption factors such as income, credit, and social security, marking a new phase in consumption policy[6] - The introduction of birth support policies is part of a broader "talent competition," with various measures to attract graduates and support families[7] Group 2: Consumer and Investment Trends - In January-February, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4% year-on-year, up from 3.7% at the end of last year[18] - Real estate investment saw a narrowing of negative growth to -9.8%, improving from -10.6% previously[18] - The sales of commercial housing in Hubei Tianmen increased by 6.1% year-on-year, indicating a potential link to birth policies that encourage home purchases[9] Group 3: Credit and Financing Developments - Personal consumption loan growth has slowed significantly, dropping to 1.4% in January-February from over 15% in 2018-2019[13] - New policies aim to support personal credit recovery, allowing banks to extend loan repayment terms for borrowers facing difficulties[11] - The issuance of local government bonds increased significantly, with a total of 16,967 billion yuan in new government bonds issued in February, up 10,956 billion yuan year-on-year[24]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Xiaocaiyuan has surged over 15% in two days, driven by favorable consumption policies and its inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect program, indicating its potential as a growth stock [1][2]. Company Overview - Xiaocaiyuan is a leading player in the mass-market Chinese dining sector, focusing on affordable dishes priced between 50 to 100 RMB, and has established itself as a modern, standardized, and digitalized chain restaurant group [7]. - As of December 5, 2024, Xiaocaiyuan operates 663 stores across 146 cities in China, with a market share of 0.2% in the mass-market dining segment [7]. Market Dynamics - The mass-market dining segment has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.8% from 2018 to 2023, with a market size reaching 36,187 billion RMB in 2023, and is projected to grow to 55,871 billion RMB by 2028 [8]. - The government has launched various consumption promotion policies, which are expected to boost service consumption and tourism, positively impacting the restaurant sector [4][5]. Financial Performance - Xiaocaiyuan's revenue has shown consistent growth, with figures of 26.46 billion RMB, 32.13 billion RMB, and 45.49 billion RMB from 2021 to 2023, respectively, and a profit increase of 123.53% in 2023 [9]. - For the first eight months of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 35.44 billion RMB, a 15.4% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.01 billion RMB, up 1.5% [9]. Challenges - Despite revenue growth, key operational metrics such as same-store sales and operating profit margins have declined in 2024, indicating potential challenges ahead [10][12]. - The company aims to open 580 new stores from 2024 to 2026 to achieve a target of 1,000 stores, which will require significant capital investment amidst high debt levels [11][12].