Core Viewpoint - The impact of global economic growth and global trade on Malaysia's exports will surpass the effects of currency fluctuations [1] Group 1 - Malaysia's Trade Minister emphasizes that external economic factors are more significant for export performance than local currency movements [1]

穆迪：美国关税可能对全球贸易和全球经济增长产生重大影响，并将影响泰国的开放型经济。 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, domestic commodities entered a volatile pattern, with industrial products fluctuating and agricultural products rebounding. Multiple factors, including Trump's wavering tariff policies, cautious market sentiment, domestic policy restraint, and the impact of counter - measures on agricultural product supply - demand, contributed to this situation. - The coexistence of bullish and bearish factors will keep the commodity market in a volatile state. Negative factors such as Trump's tariff policies, global economic slowdown, and market sentiment fluctuations are countered by positive domestic policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [3]. 3. Summary by Sections PART ONE: Main Viewpoints - **Global Economic Outlook**: The IMF lowered the 2025 global economic growth forecast from 3.3% to 2.8%, the lowest since 2020, and the 2026 forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 3.0%. Trump's tariff policies, policy uncertainty, and weak demand disrupted global supply chains and dampened investment [3]. - **US Economic Indicators**: The US April manufacturing PMI was 50.7 (below expectations), and the service PMI was 51.4 (above expectations), indicating weakened economic momentum and rising stagflation risks. In March, new housing starts were 724,000 (slightly better than expected), but the high inventory - to - sales ratio (8.2 months) hindered new construction and real - estate investment [3]. - **Eurozone Economic Indicators**: The Eurozone April manufacturing PMI was 48.7, the highest since early 2023 but still below the boom - bust line for 13 months. The marginal improvement was due to short - term order digestion and export - rush effects, and the economic outlook faces significant downside risks [3]. - **Domestic Economic Policies**: The Politburo meeting on April 25 proposed using high - quality development to address external uncertainties. Fiscal and monetary policies will be more actively implemented. The LPR remained unchanged in April, but a second - quarter "timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cut" is expected. Industrial enterprise profits improved in Q1 2025, turning from a 3.3% decline in 2024 to a 0.8% increase [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **IMF Forecasts**: Lowered 2025 and 2026 global economic growth forecasts due to Trump's tariff policies, policy uncertainty, and weak demand [3][7]. - **US PMI Data**: April manufacturing PMI was 50.7 (below expectations), service PMI was 51.4 (above expectations), suggesting weakened economic momentum and stagflation risks [3][10]. - **US Housing Market**: March new housing starts were 724,000 (slightly better than expected), but the high inventory - to - sales ratio (8.2 months) dampened new construction and investment [3][13]. - **Eurozone PMI**: April manufacturing PMI was 48.7, the highest since early 2023 but below the boom - bust line for 13 months, with short - term factors driving the marginal improvement [3][16]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **Policy Meeting**: The Politburo meeting on April 25 emphasized high - quality development and more active implementation of fiscal and monetary policies [3][20]. - **LPR Trends**: LPR remained unchanged in April due to stable policy rates, low bank net interest margins, and strong Q1 economic performance. A Q2 cut is expected [3][23]. - **Industrial Profits**: Industrial enterprise profits improved in Q1 2025, turning from a 3.3% decline in 2024 to a 0.8% increase, with March profits growing 2.6% [3][26]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **PTA and Related Industries**: On April 25, PTA - related factory operating rates showed certain levels, e.g., POY and PTA had specific operating rate percentages [34]. - **Automobile Sales**: As of April 27, 30 - day automobile sales data showed growth rates, and data from April 1 - 20 also had corresponding sales volumes and growth rates [40]. - **Agricultural Products**: On April 25, the average wholesale prices of some agricultural products and the Agricultural Products Wholesale Price 200 Index had specific values and changes [41][42].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the global economic growth is projected to be 2.7% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026, which is a downward revision from earlier estimates of 3.0% for both years [1] - Among 167 economists surveyed, 101 believe that the risk of a global recession is high, while 66 consider the risk to be low [1] - A significant majority of 292 out of 317 economists agree that tariffs have negatively impacted global business sentiment, with no respondents indicating a positive effect [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights that the U.S. imposition of tariffs is a form of unilateralism, protectionism, and economic bullying, which severely impacts the international economic and trade order, dragging down global economic growth and harming the U.S. economy itself [1] - The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook report has downgraded the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, a reduction of 0.5 percentage points from earlier predictions, primarily due to the U.S. government's announcement of tariffs affecting nearly all trade partners [2][3] - The report indicates that the U.S. economic growth rate is expected to slow to 1.8% in 2025, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from previous forecasts, marking the largest downgrade among developed economies [2][3] Group 2 - The IMF predicts that global trade growth will decline from 3.8% last year to 1.7% this year, a drop of more than half, due to the negative impacts of tariffs on the complex global supply chain [3] - The IMF also warns that global public debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to exceed 95% this year, rising by 2.8 percentage points, with potential to reach 117% by 2027, the highest level since World War II [3] Group 3 - A coalition of 12 U.S. states has filed a lawsuit against the federal government, claiming that the tariff policy is illegal and disrupts the constitutional order, leading to economic chaos [4] - The lawsuit argues that the tariffs impose significant tax burdens on families and businesses, with warnings from state attorneys general about potential inflation and economic losses if the tariffs continue [4] Group 4 - Recent data from the University of Michigan shows that the one-year inflation expectation in the U.S. has risen to 6.7%, the highest since 1981, indicating that new tariffs may push consumer prices higher while suppressing economic activity [5] - Polls indicate a decline in support for the U.S. government since the introduction of the tariff policy, with only 40% approval and 59% of the public disapproving of the tariff measures [6] Group 5 - Analysts warn that the U.S. tariff policy could undermine the dollar's status as a safe-haven currency, with potential implications for global financial markets [7] - The report from Boston Consulting Group suggests that the tariffs not only increase costs for U.S. businesses and consumers but also signal a shift towards a new era of trade relations, potentially excluding the U.S. from traditional partnerships [7] Group 6 - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies is expected to significantly suppress trade flows, reduce exports, and weaken economic activity, as stated by the chief economist of the WTO [8] - The IMF calls for stable and mutually beneficial trade arrangements to restore order in trade policies, emphasizing the need for a well-functioning, rules-based trade system for the global economy [8]

中国国家统计局日前发布的数据显示，初步核算，一季度中国国内生产总值（GDP）318758亿元人民 币，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.4%，比上年四季度环比增长1.2%。接受本报记者采访的国际人士表 示，2025年中国经济起步平稳、开局良好，中国经济在全球面临较大不确定性背景下保持稳定增长，取 得了来之不易的成绩，不仅保障了国内民生发展，也为世界经济带来更多信心，中国继续成为世界经济 增长的主引擎和稳定锚。 "中国经济显示出强劲韧性和巨大活力" 当前单边主义、保护主义抬头，世界经济复苏乏力，面临着巨大的不确定性，外部冲击对中国经济平稳 运行造成一定压力。作为全球第二大经济体，中国经济走势受到国际社会高度关注。一季度公布的亮眼 成绩单显示，中国经济高质量发展向新向好，彰显了中国经济强大韧性和潜力。 数据显示，一季度中国农业生产形势较好，工业生产增长加快，服务业较快增长。其中，农业（种植 业）增加值同比增长4.0%；全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.5%，比上年全年加快0.7个百分点；服 务业增加值同比增长5.3%，比上年全年加快0.3个百分点。 "一季度中国GDP同比增长5.4%，这是非常了不起的成绩。"卢旺达资深 ...

22日，国际货币基金组织（IMF）大幅下调了对今年和明年的全球经济增长预期，警告称，由于特朗普 的关税政策，全球经济前景可能进一步恶化。 IMF将其对今年全球GDP增长的预测下调至2.8%。这低于其1月份预测的3.3%，将是自2020年以来最慢 的GDP增长速度，也将是自2009年以来的第二差数据。将对明年的增长预期下调至3%，下降0.3个百分 点。 预计美国今年的经济增长率为1.8%，2026年为1.7%，分别下调0.9和0.4个百分点。美国2025年陷入衰退 的概率为40%，去年10月预计为27%。 IMF表示，对于美国而言，贸易冲突将引发供应冲击，推高物价并拖累生产力。对于贸易伙伴而言，更 高的关税将转化为需求冲击，影响产出和物价。值得注意的是，美国关税的实际税率已跃升至一个世纪 以来的最高水平。 IMF：特朗普政策加剧风险，全球经济增长前景堪忧 IMF首席经济学家Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas在简报会上表示： "我们正在进入一个新时代。过去80年来运作的全球经济体系正在被重塑。" 由于特朗普的政策，美国股市、美元和长期美国国债一直动荡不安。近期他公开"叫板"美联储主席鲍威 尔，加剧 ...

今日周一(4月14日)亚盘时段，白银现货目前交投于31.79一线下方，今日开盘于32.28美元/盎司，截至发 稿，白银现货暂报31.95美元/盎司，下跌1.02%，最高触及32.29美元/盎司，最低下探31.79美元/盎司， 目前来看，白银现货盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 全球风险情绪的进一步回升有助于限制大宗商品的上行空间。尽管如此，美中贸易紧张局势的急剧升级 可能会继续支撑避险贵金属。 由于对美国经济的信心减弱，以及人们越来越接受美联储 （Fed） 将很快恢复降息周期，美元 （USD） 在 2022 年 4 月以来的最低水平附近徘徊。 中国周五将美国进口关税提高到125%，以报复美国总统唐纳德·特朗普决定将中国商品关税提高到 145%。这反过来又加剧了市场的担忧，即世界两个最大经济体之间不断升级的贸易战将削弱全球经济 增长。 最近美国国债收益率的异常飙升表明，在对美国经济的信心减弱的情况下，投资者正在抛售美国政府债 券。此外，在上周公布的美国消费者通胀数据的支撑下，美联储 （Fed） 将采取更激进的宽松政策前 景，使美元保持低迷，并进一步使大宗商品受益。 【最新白银现货行情解析】 现货白银价格略有 ...

Group 1 - The core issue highlighted is that U.S. small businesses are facing significant challenges due to government tariff policies, which are increasing their operational costs and creating uncertainty [1][4][6] - A lip balm manufacturer predicts a cost increase of $5 million over the next 12 months, primarily due to tariffs on raw materials that cannot be sourced domestically [4][5] - A toy store owner in Colorado expresses that the tariffs on Chinese goods pose a serious threat to their business, leading to reduced consumer demand and halted expansion plans [4][6] Group 2 - A Florida-based company has paid over $1 million in trade taxes since the tariffs were implemented and anticipates an additional $1 million in tariffs over the next year, raising concerns about potential bankruptcy [5][6] - The Newman Center in Denver faced an unexpected cost increase of $140,000 for a seating project due to a 25% tariff on Canadian goods, which has created financial strain [5][6] - Analysts warn that the tariff policies could have far-reaching effects on global economic growth, including increased manufacturing costs, decreased business confidence, and potential supply chain disruptions [6]

市场分析：美国大幅提高关税可能严重损害全球经济增长 金十数据4月8日讯，瑞士宝盛银行的经济学家在一篇评论中说，美国关税的大幅增加可能会严重阻碍全 球经济增长。他们指出，围绕贸易政策的谈判可能会充满坎坷，包括报复和额外关税，但最终会达成比 上周宣布的贸易壁垒更低的协议。尽管如此，巨大的不确定性给全球经济扩张带来了阻力，促使经济学 家们下调了对主要经济体的GDP增长预期。宝盛将2025年美国经济增长预期从2.0%下调至1.6%。预计 欧元区经济今年将增长0.6%，而不是之前预测的0.8%。 ...