Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has narrowed down the list of candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair from 11 to 5, with the final selection expected to be nominated by President Trump as early as January 2026 [1][3]. Candidate Profiles - **Michelle Bowman**: Current Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve, familiar with regulatory affairs [2]. - **Christopher Waller**: Current Fed Governor, known for hawkish monetary policy views and strong academic background [2]. - **Kevin Hassett**: Director of the National Economic Council, former White House economic advisor with a Republican background [2]. - **Kevin Warsh**: Former Fed Governor (2006-2011), criticized quantitative easing, previously an executive at Morgan Stanley [2]. - **Rick Rieder**: Chief Investment Officer of Fixed Income at BlackRock, a Wall Street veteran with significant market influence but no prior Fed experience [2]. Selection Process - Secretary Becerra will lead a new round of interviews for the five candidates, with the process expected to conclude after Thanksgiving due to upcoming international engagements [3]. - A streamlined recommendation list will be submitted to President Trump after the interviews, with the final decision resting with him [3]. Candidate Standards - Becerra prefers candidates with experience in economics, monetary policy, banking regulation, and management, who are open to new ideas regarding Fed operations and monetary policy [4]. - No candidate currently stands out as a clear favorite, but Rieder has made a strong impression due to his extensive experience in fixed income markets [4]. Candidate Views on Monetary Policy - **Michelle Bowman**: Advocates for a proactive monetary policy approach, suggesting that the Fed should act decisively in response to economic conditions, with a preference for a gradual adjustment of interest rates [5][6]. - **Christopher Waller**: Supports interest rate cuts but emphasizes caution in policy actions due to mixed economic signals [8][9]. - **Kevin Hassett**: Stresses the importance of Fed independence from political influence while supporting a comprehensive review of the Fed's mission and policies [10][11]. - **Kevin Warsh**: Calls for a complete overhaul of the Fed to restore its credibility, criticizing current leadership for failing to maintain appropriate interest rates [13][14]. - **Rick Rieder**: Believes there is room for about 100 basis points of rate cuts and questions the diminishing impact of tariffs on inflation [17][18].

新闻与观点 波兰国家银行（NBP）昨日意外将政策利率下调25个基点至4.50%。NBP的声明与上次会议并无太大差 异，但央行注意到，9月份消费者物价指数（CPI）同比涨幅保持不变，为2.9%。央行预计，扣除食品 和能源价格的核心通胀率（8月份环比增长0.2%，同比增长3.2%）将接近8月份的水平，但服务价格涨 幅仍在上升。公报还评估称，尽管2025年第二季度的年工资增长率略有下降，但仍保持在高位，但企业 部门的数据显示增长正在逐步放缓。央行认为，未来一段时间通胀前景的改善有理由调整NBP的利率水 平。声明中并未明确提及，但短期通胀前景的改善可能与政府在第四季度延长能源价格上限有关。市场 反应平淡。波兰2年期掉期收益率下跌4个基点。兹罗提几乎没有反应（欧元/波兰兹罗提4.25），这表 明市场主要将降息视为时机问题，而非深刻改变对波兰央行利率预期路径的预期。 中国宣布将加强对稀土及相关技术出口的管控。这些措施旨在进一步控制已流出中国的产品和技术。为 此，外国公司出口即使含有少量稀土元素的产品也需要获得中国商务部的批准。中国当局还计划禁止与 稀土开采和回收相关的技术，除非获得商务部的许可。一些用于开发芯片的稀土产品 ...

行情回顾： 国际黄金周四（10月9日）高位回落震荡收跌，开盘价4045.68美元/盎司，最高价4059.16美元/盎司，最低价 4001.26美元/盎司，收盘价4014.58美元/盎司。 消息面： 美联储理事巴尔周四表示，美联储在进一步降息方面应保持谨慎，他明显偏向通胀风险，尽管他也承认"基本 平衡"的劳动力市场存在潜在脆弱性。"联邦公开市场委员会在调整政策时应保持谨慎，以便我们能够收集更多 数据、更新我们的预测，并更好地评估风险平衡，"巴尔在明尼苏达经济俱乐部的讲话中表示。这是他自6月以 来首次就货币政策发表公开评论。尽管巴尔支持美联储上月降息25个基点的决定，但他在讲话中着重强调了关 税对通胀的影响，暗示他并不认为有必要像金融市场目前预期的那样进行一系列降息。他还表示："考虑到供 需冲击、金融市场和金融状况的变化、劳动力市场的表现以及通胀的情况……我认为当前利率仅具有温和限制 性。" 据纽约时报报道，一位美国政府消息人士表示，尽管联邦政府已停摆，美国劳工统计局仍在准备发布9月份的 CPI数据，但具体发布时间尚不明确，但几乎可以肯定不是原定的10月15日。该统计机构在资金中断期间已停 止所有运作，因此未能按 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. government is facing a stalemate regarding the budget, with a Republican proposal to end the government shutdown failing to pass in the Senate [1] - President Trump plans to cut certain federal programs favored by Democrats due to the ongoing deadlock in Congress [1] - The U.S. Treasury has entered into a $20 billion currency swap agreement with Argentina, purchasing Argentine pesos directly [1] Economic Policy and Market Dynamics - New York Fed President Williams supports further interest rate cuts within the year to address potential labor market slowdowns, while maintaining that the U.S. economy is not in recession [2] - Fed Governor Barr emphasizes caution regarding further rate cuts, highlighting inflation risks despite acknowledging vulnerabilities in the labor market [2] - The European Central Bank's September meeting minutes indicate that current inflation levels align with medium-term targets, suggesting no need for rate adjustments to influence market supply and demand [2] Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.52% to 46,358.42 points, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.28% to 6,735.11 points, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.08% to 23,024.63 points [3] - COMEX gold futures declined by 1.95% to $3,991.10 per ounce, while silver futures fell by 2.73% to $47.66 per ounce [4] - U.S. oil futures decreased by 1.65% to $61.52 per barrel, and Brent crude futures dropped by 1.54% to $65.23 per barrel [5] Bond and Currency Markets - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 0.83 basis points to 3.588%, with similar increases across other maturities [5] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.55% to 99.40, while the euro, pound, and Australian dollar all depreciated against the dollar [5]

After the Federal Reserve's initial rate cut last month, the central bank should proceed carefully with further adjustments to its policy stance, Fed governor Michael Barr said, citing concerns that prices are still rising too quickly. ...

Most members of the Federal Reserve's interest-rate setting committee supported further reductions to its key interest rate this year, according to minutes from last month's meeting released Wednesday.A majority of Fed officials felt that the risk unemployment would rise had worsened since their previous meeting in July, while the risk of rising inflation "had either diminished or not increased,†the minutes said. As a result, the central bank decided at its Sept. ...

Core Insights - The price of gold has reached an unprecedented level of $4,000 per troy ounce, marking a significant rally not seen since 1979 [1] - Gold futures prices have increased by approximately 50% this year, surpassing many historical crises in the U.S. [2] - Investors are turning to gold primarily for its value retention during inflationary periods and economic uncertainty [3][4] Gold Market Dynamics - The initial rise in gold prices occurred during the first part of Trump's second term, followed by a stagnation over the summer until a pivotal speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in August, which indicated potential interest rate cuts [5][6] - Central banks globally have been accumulating gold reserves since the financial crisis, driven by doubts about the stability of the global financial system, which is closely tied to the U.S. economy [6][7] - The U.S. dollar has experienced its weakest first half in 50 years, influenced by a lack of confidence in the U.S. economic outlook and concerns over long-term deficits [8][9] Future Considerations - Despite the current surge in gold prices, historical patterns suggest that significant price gains may not be sustainable, as seen in the aftermath of the 1979 gold boom [10] - The performance of U.S. institutions, the independence of the Federal Reserve, and potential decreases in inflation and continued economic growth could exert downward pressure on gold prices [10]

Market Overview - Markets are facing political turmoil in Japan and France, alongside a U.S. government shutdown, leading to decreased investor confidence and a flight to safety in assets like gold [1][10] - The Japanese yen has experienced significant volatility, recently falling to an eight-month low of 153 per dollar, with a decline of over 3% for the week, marking its worst performance since September 2024 [10][11] Currency Movements - The dollar has strengthened, rising more than 1% for the week, supported by the weakness of the yen and euro [6][11] - The euro has seen a slight recovery, trading 0.09% higher at $1.1639, but remains nearly 0.9% down for the week [6][11] - Other currencies, such as the British pound and Australian dollar, have also shown minor gains, with the pound at $1.3413 and the Australian dollar at $0.6594 [6][11] Japanese Political Context - The selection of Sanae Takaichi as head of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party may lead to increased spending and a continuation of loose monetary policy, potentially further weakening the yen [10][11] - The upcoming October Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting is anticipated to be a catalyst for further yen weakness if Takaichi maintains dovish fiscal and monetary views [4][10] U.S. Federal Reserve Outlook - Recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate caution regarding future interest rate cuts, with markets still pricing in two more cuts by year-end [8][11] - A prolonged U.S. government shutdown could delay important economic data, complicating the Fed's decision-making process for its October meeting [8][11] - Investors are currently pricing in approximately 44 basis points of easing by December 2023 [9][11]

Most Federal Reserve officials believed they would need to cut interest rates "over the remainder of the year†because of a worsening labor market and diminished risks of rising inflation. ...

Core Viewpoint - Kansas City Fed President Esther George expressed a preference against further interest rate cuts, emphasizing the need to monitor the risks of high inflation while balancing between overly tight and overly loose monetary policy [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rate Decisions - George supported the Fed's decision to lower rates by 25 basis points in September, viewing it as appropriate risk management amid a cooling labor market [1] - She indicated that the overall employment market remains healthy despite the rate cut [1] Inflation Concerns - Inflation remains a significant concern, with service sector inflation stabilizing around 3.5%, well above the Fed's 2% target [1] - A worrying trend noted by George is the broadening scope of price increases, with nearly 80% of categories in official inflation statistics showing price rises as of August, up from 70% at the beginning of the year [1] Policy Calibration - George believes that the impact of tariffs on inflation is relatively mild, suggesting that current policy is appropriately calibrated rather than indicating a need for substantial rate cuts [1]