2025年全球主要央行继续实施货币宽松政策，但不少发达经济体货币宽松已至尾声，普遍"踩刹 车"的趋势日益清晰。未来，在全球经济"韧性修复"与"风险犹存"的博弈中，主要经济体货币政策或呈 现出差异化的审慎调整态势。面对"弱增长+缓通胀"格局，各国央行在政策工具箱中艰难寻求平衡。 部分央行降息步伐趋于放缓 2025年12月10日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至3.5%至3.75%之间，这是美 联储自2025年9月以来连续第三次降息，也是自2024年9月启动本轮降息周期以来第六次降息。2025年美 联储已累计降息75个基点。 美联储在最近一次降息后对其未来政策路径给出了"模糊的前景"。分析人士指出，随着其他发达经 济体暂停或结束宽松周期，而某些国家央行甚至准备加息，美联储未来若继续降息，则可能陷入"独自 行动"的境地，这将重塑全球资本流动和资产定价的逻辑。 目前，美国滞胀风险与股市泡沫风险并存，若美联储因政治压力激进降息，可能加剧科技股过热或 通胀压力；同时，美联储独立性受损可能动摇美元信誉，加速货币体系多元化进程。此外，全球风险管 理体系需要适应资本流动波动和政策不确定性，防范热钱快进快出对新兴 ...

钛媒体App 12月21日消息，据报道，美联储哈玛克表示，美联储在过去三次会议上连续降息后，未来几 个月内没有任何调整利率的必要。哈马克反对近期的降息，因为她更担心居高不下的通胀，而非潜在的 劳动力市场脆弱性。哈玛克今年并非利率制定委员会的投票成员，但明年将成为投票委员。"我的基本 预期是，可以将利率维持在当前水平一段时间，至少可以维持到春季。直到我们获得更清晰的证据，表 明要么通胀正在回落至目标水平，要么就业市场出现更实质性的疲软，"她在周四接受媒体采访时表 示。（广角观察） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Volatile [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. economy continues to weaken, and gold prices are oscillating at high levels [1]. - Short - term gold price trends are volatile. With the upcoming U.S. Christmas holidays, market trading will become quiet. The previous high of gold has not been broken, and silver has been over - hyped, so there is a need to beware of correction risks [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Gold High - frequency Data Weekly Changes - The domestic basis (spot - futures) was - 4.08 yuan/gram, with a weekly change of 1.78 yuan and a change rate of - 30.4%. The internal - external futures spread (internal - external) was - 9.06 yuan/gram, with a change of 2.44 yuan and a change rate of - 21.2%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 414 kg to 91,716 kg, a 0.5% change. The COMEX gold inventory increased by 38,170 ounces to 36,005,922 ounces, a 0.11% change [12]. - The SPDR ETF holding decreased by 0.57 tons to 1052.54 tons, a - 0.05% change. The CFTC gold speculative net long position increased by 4,829 lots to 124,637 lots, a 4.0% change [12]. - The U.S. Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.03 percentage points to 4.16%, a - 0.7% change. The U.S. 10 - year break - even inflation rate decreased by 0.0345 percentage points to 2.2416%, a - 1.52% change [12]. - The S&P 500 index rose by 7 points to 6,835, a 0.1% change. The VIX volatility index decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 14.9%, a - 5.3% change. The U.S. 10 - year real interest rate decreased by 0.01 percentage points to 1.89%, a - 0.7% change [12]. 2. Financial Market - related Data Tracking 2.1 U.S. Financial Market - The U.S. overnight secured financing rate was 3.66%. Oil prices fell by 0.7%, and the U.S. inflation expectation was 2.24% [18]. - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.2%, and the U.S. Treasury bond yield decreased to 4.14%. The S&P 500 index rose by 0.1%, and the VIX index slightly decreased to 14.9 [21]. - The real interest rate slightly decreased to 1.89%, and the gold price rose by 0.9%. The spot commodity index closed down, and the U.S. dollar index rose by 0.2% [22]. 2.2 Global Financial Markets - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Most developed - country stock markets rose, with the S&P 500 rising by 0.1%. Most developing - country stock markets fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.03% [24]. - U.S. Treasury bonds declined, German bonds rose, and the U.S. - German yield spread was 1.26%. The yield on UK Treasury bonds was 4.5%, and that on Japanese bonds was 2.02% [27]. - The euro depreciated by 0.26%, the British pound appreciated by 0.07%, the Japanese yen depreciated by 1.25%, and the Swiss franc appreciated by 0.03%. The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.2% to 98.6, and most non - U.S. currencies depreciated [29][32]. 3. Gold Trading - level Data Tracking - The gold speculative position data showed that the SPDR gold ETF holding remained flat at 1053 tons [34]. - The RMB exchange rate oscillated, and the discount of Shanghai gold widened. Gold and silver prices rose, and the gold - silver ratio fell to 65.6 [37]. 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: China's December LPR. Tuesday: U.S. Q3 GDP. Wednesday: U.S. initial jobless claims; Christmas Eve, with European and American markets closed or ending trading early. Thursday: Christmas, with European and American markets closed. Friday: Japan's November unemployment rate [38].

Group 1 - The silver market is currently experiencing a structural shortage and a surge in industrial demand, which are the main drivers for its price increase, with analysts projecting silver prices to reach between $75 and $80 [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained interest rates and raised some economic growth and inflation forecasts, signaling a potential end to further rate cuts, although uncertainty remains high [1] - The Bank of Japan has raised its short-term policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years, but this move did not significantly boost the yen as it was largely anticipated by the market [1] Group 2 - Silver prices have recorded a high point around $67.00, which may limit further upward movement; however, a strong breakout above this level could trigger bullish trading [2] - The $65.40-$65.35 area is currently providing support for the psychological level of $65.00, with critical support at approximately $64.75; a decisive break below this could lead to technical selling and deeper corrections [2] - If silver prices decline, they may test levels below $64.00, potentially reaching the intermediate support at $63.35, passing through the $63.00 mark [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant uptick in technology stocks, contributing to a rise in U.S. stock markets as traders prepare for a record-scale options expiration that may lead to increased volatility in stock prices [2] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.7%, the Nasdaq 100 index increased by 1.2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed by 0.5% during early trading [2] - This marks the second consecutive day of gains for the stock market, with the S&P 500 index nearly erasing its losses for the week [2] Group 2: Options Expiration - Wall Street is facing a quarterly event known as "triple witching day," where stock, index options, and futures contracts expire simultaneously, leading traders to either roll over existing positions or establish new ones [2] - Citigroup estimates that there will be $7.1 trillion in notional outstanding contracts expiring [2] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Kenny Polcari from SlateStone Wealth emphasizes that the upcoming volatility is mechanical and not indicative of fundamental market changes, suggesting that it is not significant for long-term investors [2] - Alexander Guiliano from Resonate Wealth Partners notes that the Federal Reserve may adopt a cautious stance on interest rate adjustments in light of increasingly noisy data [2]

此番言论凸显出，在美联储官员连续第三次会议降息后，进一步降息的前景不确定。政策制定者对通胀 与就业前景存在分歧。上周会议公布的最新预测显示，官员们仅预期2026年将实施一次降息。 来源：环球市场播报 纽约联储银行行长威廉姆斯表示，目前没有进一步调整利率的紧迫性，近期就业和通胀数据几乎没有改 变他的预期。 "我个人并没有紧迫感，认为当前需要在货币政策方面采取进一步行动，因为我认为，我们已经实施的 降息使政策处于非常好的状态，"威廉姆斯周五在接受采访时表示，"我希望看到通胀回落至2%，同时 不对劳动力市场造成不必要的损害。这要达到一种平衡。" 威廉姆斯表示，本周公布的就业和通胀报告反映了近期政府停摆造成的数据扭曲。但他指出，这些数据 表明基本通胀继续在向美联储2%的目标迈进，同时劳动力市场也在逐步降温。 ...

Central banks in big economies are signalling a change of stance as the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to a 30-year high on Friday. ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential candidates to succeed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, highlighting their differing views on interest rate policies and the management of the Fed's balance sheet, while all agree on the need for lower interest rates and the role of artificial intelligence in boosting economic productivity. Candidate Summaries Hassett - Hassett, aged 63, holds a PhD in economics and has a history with the Federal Reserve and the American Enterprise Institute, focusing on tax policy and supply-side economics [1] - He believes there is significant room for interest rate cuts, suggesting potential GDP growth could exceed 4% due to productivity and capital stock growth [2] - Hassett has not detailed his views on the Fed's balance sheet but has called for an independent review of the entire institution, citing concerns over perceived partisan bias [2] Waller - Waller, aged 66, is the most politically distant candidate, with a background in academia and a history as a research director at the St. Louis Fed [3] - He has influenced monetary policy discussions, advocating for interest rate cuts based on weak labor market evidence, and believes there is still room to lower rates by 50 to 100 basis points [4] - Waller does not view the Fed as constrained by partisan issues and has expressed concerns about the Fed's focus on social issues [4] Walsh - Walsh, aged 55, is a lawyer and former Fed governor, known for his critical stance on the Fed's policies and has called for a "regime change" [5] - He advocates for significant interest rate reductions to make long-term mortgages more affordable, linking low rates to a potential productivity revolution [5] - Walsh criticizes the Fed's balance sheet as indicative of excessive intervention in the economy and has raised concerns about the Fed's involvement in politically charged issues like climate change [5]

Monetary Policy Changes - The Bank of England lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%, marking the fourth rate cut this year, with uncertain impacts on the economy due to high labor costs and cautious investment attitudes from businesses [2] - The European Central Bank decided to keep its three key interest rates unchanged, with inflation in the Eurozone projected at 2.1% for 2025 and economic growth expected to be 1.4% in the same year, higher than previous forecasts [2] - The Bank of Mexico reduced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7%, the lowest level in three and a half years, while indicating a cautious approach to future rate adjustments [3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in November, down from 3% in September, with October data not published due to a government shutdown [1] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased by 13,000 to 224,000, slightly below market expectations, while continuing claims rose by 67,000 to 1.897 million, also below forecasts [2] Global Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 65.88 points to 47,951.85, a rise of 0.14%, while the S&P 500 rose by 53.33 points to 6,774.76, up 0.79%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 313.04 points to 23,006.36, reflecting a 1.38% increase [4] - COMEX gold futures fell by 0.23% to $4,363.9 per ounce, and silver futures dropped by 2.17% to $65.45 per ounce [5] - Crude oil prices saw slight increases, with light crude for January delivery rising by $0.21 to $56.15 per barrel, and Brent crude for February delivery up by $0.14 to $59.82 per barrel [5] Currency Exchange Rates - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.06% to 98.425, with the euro trading at 1.1725 dollars, the British pound at 1.3386 dollars, and the Japanese yen at 155.52 yen per dollar, all reflecting slight fluctuations from previous trading days [6]

Precious Metals Futures - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices will rise by 14% to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, with potential upside risks [1] - On December 19, New York futures gold prices rose, breaking through $4,380 per ounce (up 0.14%), $4,390 per ounce (up 0.37%), and ultimately surpassing $4,400 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.60% [2][3][4] - Spot gold also increased, breaking through $4,350 per ounce (up 0.29%), $4,360 per ounce (up 0.55%), and further rising to $4,370 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.74% [5][6][7] - However, on December 18, precious metal prices experienced a pullback, with New York futures gold falling below $4,340 per ounce (down 0.78%) and spot gold below $4,310 per ounce (down 0.65%) [8][9] - Silver showed weaker performance, with New York futures silver falling below $65 per ounce (down 2.85%) and spot silver also below $65 per ounce (down 1.84%) [10][11] Base Metals Futures - Goldman Sachs reaffirms that copper prices will reach $15,000 per ton by 2035 and continues to recommend a long position in copper and a short position in aluminum for contracts expiring in December 2027 [12] Energy and Shipping Futures - In the energy market, U.S. natural gas futures prices fell over 3.00% on December 19, currently reported at $3.233 per million British thermal units, with the decline expanding to 4.00%, now at $3.199 per million British thermal units [14][15] - The EIA natural gas report shows that as of the week ending December 12, U.S. natural gas inventories totaled 35,790 billion cubic feet, a decrease of 1,670 billion cubic feet from the previous week and down 610 billion cubic feet year-on-year (a 1.7% decline), while being 320 billion cubic feet above the 5-year average (a 0.9% increase) [16] - Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2026, the average price of Brent crude oil and West Texas Intermediate crude oil will drop to $56 and $52 per barrel, respectively [17] Macroeconomic and Market Impact - The European Central Bank's policy direction is under scrutiny, with several officials indicating that the rate-cutting cycle is likely over, maintaining deposit rates at around 2% unless a significant shock occurs; however, discussions on rate hikes are considered "premature" [18][19] - The ECB also forecasts that inflation rates will be below 2% in the first quarter of 2026 and from the third quarter of 2026 to the fourth quarter of 2027 [20] - In the U.S., concerns about premature significant rate cuts were expressed, while the White House's National Economic Council director believes there is substantial room for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [21][23] - Several banks have recently lowered U.S. dollar deposit rates, with one bank reporting a decrease of 0.05 percentage points in its latest dollar time deposit rates [24]