Market Overview - US stocks reached new record highs, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing above 45,725, the S&P 500 above 6,512, and the Nasdaq Composite marking its second consecutive closing high this week [1] Labor Market Data - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US economy likely added 911,000 fewer jobs than previously estimated for the 12-month period ending March 2025, a larger revision than the expected 680,000 [2] Federal Reserve Expectations - The labor market data has heightened discussions on how the Federal Reserve will respond, with traders anticipating an interest-rate cut in the upcoming meeting. The focus has shifted to the potential magnitude of the cut and its implications for the stock market [3] Inflation Reports - Key inflation data, including the producer price index (PPI) and consumer price index (CPI), are set to be released, which will provide insights into whether rising prices could hinder significant interest-rate cuts [4] Corporate Highlights - Apple's annual fall event showcased new products, including the iPhone 17 and new AirPods, but its stock fell approximately 1.5% [5] - Tourmaline Bio and Nebius shares surged over 50% following deal announcements with Novartis and Microsoft, respectively [5] - Oracle and GameStop are scheduled to report earnings after market close [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. preliminary benchmark payrolls revision indicates a downward adjustment of 911,000 jobs for the one-year period ending March 2025, marking the largest revision on record, suggesting a weaker labor market than previously reported [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates for the first time this year, with the possibility of a 50 basis point cut being considered instead of the previously forecasted 25 basis points due to the new labor market data [2] Group 2 - Rate-sensitive assets such as crypto, gold, and long-dated bonds experienced volatility, with gold futures initially surging past $3,700 before giving back gains and closing flat at $3,679 [3] - Bitcoin (BTC) saw a decline from $113,000 to $111,600, reflecting a 1% drop over the past 24 hours, while U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.07%, threatening to dip below 4% for the first time since February [4]

Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $3,680.60 per ounce on Thursday, up 1% from Wednesday’s close of $3,643.60. Gold is up nearly 40% this year. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will report the August Consumer Price Index data today. Analysts expect to see that prices increased 0.3%, up from 0.2% in July. A larger-than-expected increase supports the argument that President Trump’s tariffs are affecting consumer prices. It may also influence the Fed’s decision on interest rates next week. Lower interest rates can ...

Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is facing potential recession risks despite promises of a "golden era" under Trump's administration, with weak job growth and high inflation contributing to a deteriorating economic outlook [1][3] - The economy added only 22,000 jobs in August, indicating stagnation in the labor market since the initiation of Trump's tariff policies [3][4] - The probability of recession is estimated to be close to 50%, with significant reasons for economic slowdown being identified [3][4] Labor Market - The labor market is experiencing its weakest recruitment situation in over 60 years, excluding recession periods, raising concerns about economic health [3][4] - Trump's administration has faced criticism for its immigration policies, which have reduced the availability of foreign workers, further straining recruitment efforts [7][8] - The total federal government employment has decreased by 97,000, reflecting efforts to cut public sector jobs [8] Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - There is a strong expectation that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in response to economic conditions, with a 90% probability of a 0.25 percentage point cut anticipated [4][5] - Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve's delayed actions has been a recurring theme, with calls for significant rate cuts to stimulate the economy [4][5] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing sector has not shown signs of recovery related to tariffs, with a decline of 41,000 jobs since February [6][8] - Trump's tariffs, the highest since the 1930s, were intended to boost domestic manufacturing but have instead created uncertainty for businesses regarding new investments and hiring [6][8] Legislative Impact - Trump's signature legislation, referred to as the "big and beautiful plan," is expected to encourage business investment, although its effectiveness remains to be seen [6] - The economic growth forecast for the current quarter is modest, with Morgan Stanley predicting a growth rate of 1.5% [6]

JACKSON HOLE, WYOMING - AUGUST 22: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is seen walking in Grand Teton National Park on August 22, 2025 near Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Powell spoke Friday at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. (Photo by Natalie Behring/Getty Images)Getty Images In a highly anticipated event for global markets, the U.S. Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee is set to meet on September 16-17. Current market positioning suggests a strong expectation of a 25-basis-point rate cut among a ...

The US jobs market stalled over the summer, adding just 22,000 jobs in August and continuing a slowdown in the labor market as businesses adjusted to disruptions caused by tariffs.The latest jobs report also contained more bad news. The US lost 13,000 jobs in June, according to the latest survey, the first time it went into the negative since December 2020.The unemployment rate for August inched up to 4.3%, the highest it’s been since 2021.The healthcare sector added 31,000 last month but most other sectors ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the euro is experiencing a slight increase against the dollar, with the latest exchange rate at 1.1671, reflecting a 0.20% rise, while the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged [1] - The German Economic Institute (DWS) suggests that the eurozone's economic growth in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, with inflation hovering around 2%, and only a few countries showing signs of labor market weakness [1] - ING's Francesco Pesole reports that the interest rate differential between the US and the eurozone supports the potential rise of the euro against the dollar, predicting that the euro/dollar exchange rate may exceed 1.170 in the coming months [2] Group 2 - The euro/dollar exchange rate faced support above 1.1630 and encountered resistance below 1.1670, indicating a potential upward trend after a short-term decline [2] - Current market expectations suggest that the US Federal Reserve may implement more significant rate cuts than anticipated, while the eurozone market only sees a 30% chance of a rate cut by the ECB before the end of the year [2] - Short-term resistance levels for the euro are identified between 1.1660 and 1.1690, with support levels between 1.1625 and 1.1630 [2]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices rose collectively, with the S&P 500 index reaching a new closing high. The Dow Jones increased by 350.06 points (0.77%) to 45621.29 points, the Nasdaq rose by 209.97 points (0.98%) to 21707.69 points, and the S&P 500 gained 53.82 points (0.83%) to close at 6502.08 points [2][3]. Federal Reserve Insights - New York Fed President John Williams indicated that the policy interest rate will gradually decrease over time, although he did not specify a timeline for rate adjustments. He mentioned that if progress continues as per his baseline forecast, it would be appropriate to adjust rates to a more neutral level [5][6]. Earnings Reports - Lululemon reported Q2 net revenue of $2.53 billion, slightly below the expected $2.54 billion, and an EPS of $3.10, exceeding the forecast of $2.87. However, the company lowered its full-year EPS guidance to $12.77-$12.97 from a previous range of $14.58-$14.78, leading to a post-market drop of over 15% [7][8]. - Broadcom's Q3 adjusted EPS was $1.69, above the expected $1.67, with net revenue of $15.95 billion, surpassing the forecast of $15.84 billion. The company expects Q4 revenue of approximately $17.4 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $17.05 billion, resulting in a post-market increase of over 4% [7][8]. Trade Policy Developments - President Trump signed an executive order to implement a U.S.-Japan trade agreement, imposing a 15% baseline tariff on nearly all Japanese imports. Japan will provide significant market access for U.S. manufacturers and commit to purchasing $8 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products annually [10].

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices rose collectively, with the S&P 500 index reaching a new closing high. The Dow Jones increased by 0.77% to 45,621.29 points, the Nasdaq rose by 0.98% to 21,707.69 points, and the S&P 500 gained 0.83% to close at 6,502.08 points [1][3]. Federal Reserve Insights - New York Fed President John Williams indicated that the policy interest rate will gradually decrease over time, although he did not specify a timeline for rate adjustments. He mentioned that if progress continues as per his baseline forecast, it would be appropriate to adjust rates to a more neutral level [1][5]. - According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 0.6%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 99.4% [5]. Corporate Earnings Reports - Lululemon reported Q2 net revenue of $2.53 billion, slightly below the expected $2.54 billion, and an EPS of $3.10, exceeding the forecast of $2.87. However, the company lowered its full-year EPS guidance, leading to a post-market drop of over 15% [7]. - Broadcom's Q3 adjusted EPS was $1.69, above the expected $1.67, with net revenue of $15.95 billion, surpassing the forecast of $15.84 billion. The company also projected Q4 revenue of approximately $17.4 billion, exceeding analyst expectations, resulting in a post-market increase of over 4% [9]. Trade Policy Developments - President Trump signed an executive order to implement a U.S.-Japan trade agreement, which includes a 15% baseline tariff on nearly all Japanese imports entering the U.S. The agreement also specifies that Japan will provide significant market access for U.S. manufacturers and increase purchases of U.S. agricultural products by $8 billion annually [12].

Summary of Oshkosh (OSK) 2025 Conference Call Company Overview - Oshkosh is a global industrial technology company with approximately $11 billion in revenue and around 18,000 employees [3][4] - The company focuses on providing machinery for challenging jobs, with a strategy centered on innovation, service, and advancement [4][10] Key Segments 1. **Access Segment** - Produces equipment for working at heights, including booms and telehandlers [5] - Revenue guidance for this segment is projected at $4.4 billion, down about 15% from the previous year [39] - Demand is mixed due to construction market uncertainties, with strong demand from data centers and mega projects but weakness in non-residential construction [20][39] 2. **Vocational Segment** - Includes fire trucks, refuse vehicles, and airport products [6] - Strong demand driven by aging fleets and funding from the CARES Act, leading to a significant backlog [23][24] - Capacity expansions are focused on intelligent manufacturing improvements to address backlog [29] 3. **Transport Segment** - Involves vehicles for the US Postal Service and the Department of Defense [7] - Margin expansion expected due to new contracts with economic price adjustment clauses, improving from a 2.5% margin in 2024 to a projected 10% by 2028 [59][61] Financial Projections - Oshkosh anticipates a 7-10% annual compound growth rate for revenue from now until 2028 [8] - Operating income is expected to increase from 10% to 14%, and EPS is projected to rise from $11 to between $18 and $22 per share [9][10] - Cash conversion is targeted to exceed 90% through the cycle from 2025 to 2028 [9] Tariffs and Economic Impact - Recent tariffs on steel components are expected to have a delayed impact, with no material effect anticipated in Q3 but potential effects in Q4 [14][15] - Demand across segments is affected differently by tariffs, with the transport and vocational segments showing resilience [16][18] Capacity and Production - The company is investing in capacity expansions to meet increased demand, particularly in the vocational segment [29] - Intelligent capacity actions include automation and ergonomic improvements to enhance production efficiency [29][33] Market Dynamics - The fire truck market is experiencing a peak due to increased orders and funding, with lead times extending to 2028 for custom orders [26][32] - The refuse vehicle market is also growing due to aging fleets and technological upgrades [35][37] Strategic Acquisitions - The acquisition of AeroTech is seen as a strategic move to expand into the airport machinery market, with potential for international growth [73][78] - The integration of AeroTech is expected to yield operational efficiencies and cost savings [77][78] Conclusion - Oshkosh presents a compelling investment thesis with strong growth prospects across its segments, driven by strategic initiatives, market demand, and operational efficiencies [10][11]