The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates for a third straight meeting on Wednesday, but all eyes will be on its signals for 2026, as markets weigh whether the central bank will continue easing or hold steady. The move would lower the federal funds target range to 3.50%–3.75%, down from 4.25%–4.50% in August and well below the cycle peak of 5.25%–5.50% held from mid-2023 to late 2024. Despite uneven data flows caused by the government shutdown, markets have steadily increased their bets on a rat ...

Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25-basis-point rate hike during its last meeting of 2025, with concerns about a potential "hawkish rate cut" that could affect future cuts [2][5] - Traders are focused on the implications of sticky inflation and a slowly improving job outlook, which may influence the tone of Chairman Powell's commentary [5] Stock Market Performance - Major indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.38% at 47,560, the S&P 500 flat at 6,840, and the Nasdaq up 0.13% at 23,576 [2] Treasury Bonds - Treasury yields were mixed, with a strong demand for a $58 billion auction of 3-year notes, indicating a good appetite for shorter-term debt [3] - The 30-year bond yield finished at 4.81%, while the benchmark 10-year note was at 4.19% [3] Oil and Gas Market - Oil prices continued to decline due to abundant supplies and expectations of slowing demand, with Brent Crude at $62.05 (down 0.70%) and West Texas Intermediate at $58.35 (down 0.90%) [4] - Iraq's restoration of production at the West Qurna 2 oilfield added approximately 460,000 barrels per day to global supply, impacting market dynamics [4] - Natural gas prices fell significantly, closing at $4.56, down 7.21% due to profit-taking and weather-related factors [4]

德国10年期公债收益率周三创下数月新高，交易员的定价排除欧洲央行进一步降息的可能性，聚焦于稍 晚的关键美联储会议。 意大利10年期公债收益率也上升4个基点，达到3.59%。 交易员也在减少对其他全球央行进一步宽松的押注，但最重要的央行--美联储是个例外。市场预计美联 储将在周三稍晚降息25个基点，并认为明年可能还会有两次降息。 如果美联储周三会议不降息，将令市场大跌眼镜，但未来前景更令人怀疑，交易商将急于消化决策者的 经济和利率预测。 回到欧洲，虽然法国公债收益率与德国同步上涨，但涨幅略小，法国和德国10年期公债收益率差距为71 个基点，约为8月以来最低。 此举提振了市场情绪，周二，法国议会以微弱优势通过了2026年社会保障预算，为法国总理勒科尔尼 （Sebastien Lecornu）赢得关键性的胜利，但也付出了巨大的政治和财政代价，这仍可能威胁到他脆弱 的政府。 法国10年期公债收益率上升4个基点至3.60%，也接近3月以来高点。 德国10年期公债收益率略升4个基点至2.89%，上次触及该水平是在3月德国大幅增加借贷和政府支出之 后。 近几个月来，欧元区指标收益率基本处于区间波动状态，但周一欧洲央行颇具影 ...

The outlook for intrest rates next year has changed notably over the past month. ...

北京时间周四凌晨03：00，美联储在结束两天的政策会议后将宣布最新的利率决定，并发布货币政策声明。半小时后，美联储主席鲍威 尔将召开货币政策新闻发布会。 据CME"美联储观察"，美联储本周降息25个基点的概率为87.6%，维持利率不变的概率为12.4%。这一预期早已被华尔街消化，目前标普 500指数仍徘徊在历史高点附近。 "美联储本周沟通的核心，在于鲍威尔会将政策描述为'处于良好位置'（正如2025年前几个月美联储按兵不动时所做的那样），还是会重 申'适度限制性'或'略高于中性水平'的表述。若为后者，那么2026年初进一步降息的大门将持续敞开，" 杰富瑞分析师在一份报告中告诉 客户。 "我们预计他不会称政策利率'处于良好位置'，但这仍是市场需重点关注的措辞。"他们表示。 当然，鲍威尔向来以数据为导向。无论他届时如何表述，明年1月的决策仍将基于从现在到那时的宏观经济信息。 而且，货币政策并非鲍威尔一人所能决定。他所领导的FOMC几乎已陷入势均力敌的分裂状态：约半数委员担忧，进一步宽松可能加剧 股市泡沫；另一半委员则认为，美国经济正濒临衰退边缘，失业率攀升，亟需宽松货币政策来避免衰退。 麦格理集团的David D ...

Group 1: Berkeley Group Performance - Berkeley Group shares increased by 2%, with first-half profits before tax exceeding consensus by 2% and margins improving by 60 basis points [1] - House sales fell by 4% to 2,022, slightly below the consensus forecast of 2,081, with average selling prices down by 5% to £570,000 from £600,000 [1][6] - The company reported a 7.8% decline in first-half revenue, totaling £1.18 billion, and a 7.7% drop in profits, while operating costs were reduced by 6% [6][7] Group 2: Future Outlook and Strategy - Management maintained its outlook for 2026 and 2027, reiterating pre-tax profit guidance of £450 million for the full year and a similar level for 2027 [1][7] - Berkeley is developing a build-to-rent portfolio, which is expected to enhance value by achieving better prices through holding units until rents mature, although this will incur short-term costs [2]

欧洲央行管委Gediminas Simkus称，鉴于经济活动和通胀均强于预期，没有必要进一步降息。 这位立陶宛央行行长周二表示，欧元区面临的下行风险虽已显现，但程度低于预期，他援引了近期欧元 区第三季度国内生产总值（GDP）被向上修正等证据。 "中期通胀率基本接近2%的目标，这意味着没有必要调整利率——不仅是12月的下次会议，后续会议也 是如此，" Simkus在维尔纽斯接受采访时称。 "最新数据显示，在通胀和GDP方面，我们面临的风险相当平衡，"他说。 那可能意味着12月18日的下一次政策决定——市场普遍预计按兵不动——"不会是个艰难的决定"。 没有理由加息 Simkus指出，现在考虑加息还为时过早，称"没有证据"表明通胀超过了2%的目标。 "过去几年教会我们的是，不要描绘非常遥远的前景，也不要断言事情会以这样或那样的方式发生。" 另一位欧洲央行管委Francois Villeroy de Galhau周三也表示，没有理由在短期内加息，下周会议可能按 兵不动。 "当前利率处于有利水平，维持这一水平或许是明智之举，同时对未来会议持灵活开放的态度，"这位法 国央行行长在Europe 1电台谈及12月18日政策决 ...

Earnings Reports - Toll Brothers reported Q4 earnings of $4.58 per share, missing Wall Street expectations by $0.30, which anticipated $4.88 per share. However, sales were above forecasts at $3.4 billion [5] - Toll Brothers' backlog at the end of Q4 was $5.5 billion, down 15% year-over-year, indicating weakening demand for new homes. The company has 4,647 homes awaiting construction, a decrease from 5,996 homes a year ago, reflecting a 22.5% decline in unit backlog [6] - AutoZone reported Q1 profit of $31.04, missing expectations by $1.83, while revenue was $4.6 billion, slightly below analysts' forecasts [7]

How are you viewing this Fed rate cut coming up or the expected Fed rate come coming up. It seems like it's all but certain, but certainly we don't know for a fact that it's going to happen. Just 90% chance according to the CME.Is it going to be a hawkish cut or a dobish cut and how much does that matter for the market at least from now until the end of the year. >> Yeah, I think tomorrow, you know, it's very likely. I think there has been a lot of back and forth uh from market pricing for the last couple o ...

2026年，对于英国经济而言，一个悬而未决的核心问题是消费能否最终摆脱低迷。研究认为家庭会增加 消费，然而近期情况表明未必如此。持续的谨慎态度可能意味着明年英国经济增速会低于1%。 政治是经济前景面临的另一个不确定因素。首相斯塔默会不会下台？财政大臣里夫斯是否会被撤换？这 些猜测可能会在2026年继续发酵。最新预算案出台后，英国的公共财政依然脆弱不堪。如果执政的工党 领导层放松财政纪律，投资者对英国债务轨迹的担忧会再度浮现。 研究预计进入2026年，经济环比增速会有所加快，季度平均增速预计为0.3%。这意味着年增长率为 1.2%，低于2025年的1.4%，去年上半年经济活动的前置给全年经济增长带来了提振。 2026年通胀率预计会从2025年的3.4%降至2.3%，主要是由于明年4月年度同比数据会剔除多项一次性因 素。政府在预算案中提出要降低能源价格，这意味着年度CPI涨幅会从春季起逐步回归2%的通胀目标。 据研究预计，到2026年结束时，英国央行政策利率会从当前的4.0%下调到3.5%，这意味着，除了今年 12月可能会降息一次，明年还会有一次下调——可能会在4月。 消费能不能恢复活力？ 由于关税和国内税率上调 ...