Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 23.13 points, a decrease of 0.68%, ending at 3380.82 points, with a trading volume of 461.29 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 167.77 points, down 1.62%, closing at 10186.45 points, with a trading volume of 691.11 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index decreased by 39.89 points, a drop of 1.91%, closing at 2043.25 points, with a trading volume of 315.82 billion yuan [1] - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was less than 1.2 trillion yuan, an increase of nearly 160 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Industry Performance - The breeding sector saw a significant rise, with the breeding ETF (159865) reaching a peak increase of 0.7% during the day and closing up 0.34% [2] - The breeding ETF has attracted considerable capital attention recently, recording inflows over the past five days [2] - The optimism in the industry is supported by improved performance of listed pig companies due to the recovery of the pig market last year [4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is experiencing a near three-year capacity clearance, which is the foundation for the expected rise in pig prices in 2024 [6] - As of April 2024, the number of breeding sows was 39.86 million, a decrease of about 10% from the peak of 43.90 million in June 2021 [6] - The demand side remains relatively inelastic, while the supply side shows greater elasticity [6] Cost Control and Profitability - Cost optimization in pig farming companies has significantly improved, providing support for performance recovery [7] - The average cost for leading pig farming company Muyuan Foods has dropped to approximately 13 yuan per kilogram [7] - The recovery of profit margins is expected to enhance the asset-liability structure of companies in the industry, increasing resilience during the cyclical downturn [4] Future Outlook - Although it is too early to declare a turning point for pig prices, the breeding ETF (159865) remains worthy of attention as it is at a low point [5] - If pig prices begin to rise again, companies are likely to benefit from the widening "scissors difference" between rising prices and falling costs, potentially exceeding market profit expectations [5]

Group 1: Livestock and Pet Food Industry - The livestock sector is experiencing a supply contraction due to capacity reduction, leading to improved profitability for leading companies like Muyuan Foods, which benefit from scale and efficiency during the new pig cycle [1] - The white feather chicken market faced weak supply and demand, but companies like Shennong Development achieved significant profit reversals in Q1 2025 due to falling feed prices and improved farming efficiency [1] - The core driver of profitability in the livestock sector is the substantial improvement in unit costs, making chicken companies with cost control and channel advantages more attractive for investment [1] - The pet food sector is expected to see both revenue and profit growth in 2024, with profits increasing by 77.8%, driven by lower raw material prices, rapid growth in proprietary brand sales, and steady growth in overseas OEM business [1] - In Q1 2025, the pet food sector remains highly prosperous, but there is significant differentiation among companies; brands like Zhongchong and Guibao are experiencing rapid profit growth, while Petty Holdings faces profit declines due to tariff policy changes and initial investments in new capacity [1] - The seed industry is under pressure, with profits expected to decline by over 50% year-on-year in 2024, and continuing to face challenges in Q1 2025 with an 82.4% year-on-year profit drop [1] - The animal health industry is facing intense competition but is expected to see a rebound in vaccine sales and core product profits starting in Q1 2025, with a projected year-on-year profit increase of 28% [1] - Investment focus should be on leading vaccine companies with stable customer bases and comprehensive product lines, as they are likely to benefit first from downstream recovery and achieve profit restoration [1] Group 2: Medical Aesthetics and Regulatory Environment - The competition in the medical aesthetics sector is intensifying as companies rush to apply for Class III medical device certifications, with certified products expected to become the primary procurement source for downstream institutions [3] - Companies that have obtained Class III certifications and possess industrialization capabilities, such as Haohai Biological and Huaxi Biological, are recommended for their technological barriers and channel synergy advantages, which may lead to rapid profit release during the initial product rollout [3] Group 3: Corporate Restructuring and Market Strategy - Runtian Industrial's plan to "shell" ST United is seen as a strategic move to navigate the current strict IPO review environment, leveraging its profitable consumer assets to enhance the quality and sustainability of the listed company [3] - ST United has been facing continuous losses and cash flow deterioration, with a projected net loss of 63.7 million yuan in 2024, and is under pressure from potential delisting due to ongoing losses and information disclosure violations [3] - Investors are advised to pay close attention to the specific terms of the transaction, including pricing, valuation levels, and profit guarantees, to avoid potential overvaluation or capital manipulation [3] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Innovation and Market Impact - China Antibody Pharmaceutical's recent placement of new shares at an 11% discount aims to raise 124 million HKD, primarily for the development and international collaboration of its innovative drug SM17, indicating the company's strong focus on this project's clinical advancement and commercial potential [4] - SM17 is a first-in-class drug targeting the IL-25 receptor for treating atopic dermatitis, positioned in a rapidly growing market with significant potential for success [4] - The global market for atopic dermatitis patients exceeds 230 million, with over 70 million in China, and if successful, SM17 could rank among the top treatments in this category [4] - Recent acquisitions by major pharmaceutical companies in the early-stage AD candidate market suggest that SM17 could attract interest for cross-border licensing or acquisition if it demonstrates strong data in Phase II trials [4] - The funding allocation for SM17's clinical advancement and international collaboration is set at 45%, with additional funds aimed at expanding the product pipeline and ensuring operational safety [4] Group 5: Impact of U.S. Drug Pricing Policies on Chinese Pharmaceutical Companies - The U.S. administration's recent executive order aims to tie drug prices to the lowest prices in other developed countries, which may indirectly affect Chinese biopharmaceutical companies by creating opportunities for them to enter international markets [5] - While U.S. innovative drug companies may face long-term gross margin pressures due to this pricing policy, Chinese companies with cost advantages could benefit from increased market access [5]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a gradual transition of the pig cycle into a reasonable upward phase, driven by the initial effects of capacity reduction and limited short-term expansion capabilities in the industry [2][21][24]. Core Insights - The Chinese pig farming industry has experienced significant fluctuations due to factors such as African swine fever and policy-driven changes, leading to an increase in industry concentration but still remaining at a low level [4][21]. - The market demand for pork remains rigid, closely tied to the living standards of urban and rural residents, with the market size of the pig farming industry reaching 1.51 trillion yuan in 2024 [4][5]. - The report highlights that the supply-demand mismatch in the pig market leads to cyclical price fluctuations, with each cycle typically lasting around four years [5][22]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The concentration of pig farming in China has increased due to policy and environmental factors, yet it remains low, resulting in significant cyclical volatility [4]. - Pork is the primary meat source for Chinese residents, with the pig farming sector accounting for over 50% of the livestock industry's output and value [4]. Pig Production and Output Analysis - The breeding sow inventory has fluctuated since mid-2021, with a reasonable level reached by early 2025, while pig output has shown a downward trend in 2024 [5][8]. - The report notes that the breeding sow inventory is a leading indicator for future pig output, influencing supply over the next 10-12 months [5][22]. Industry Supply Chain and Price Trends - The pig farming sector is heavily influenced by feed prices, which have seen fluctuations due to global supply dynamics [9][10]. - The average wholesale price of pork was reported at 20.85 yuan/kg in early 2025, indicating a downward trend compared to the previous year [15][22]. Industry Policies - The government has implemented policies to optimize pig production capacity management, aiming to stabilize pork prices and reduce cyclical volatility [17][18]. - Recent adjustments to the breeding sow inventory targets reflect improvements in production efficiency and aim to maintain market stability [18][21]. Future Development - The report anticipates that the pig cycle will gradually stabilize as the proportion of large-scale farming enterprises increases, leading to reduced volatility in the market [21][24]. - Challenges remain for pig farming enterprises, including cost control related to raw materials and disease management, which will continue to impact profitability [21][24].

2025/5/12 1 图：生猪养殖周期示意图 图：猪价指引产能导致周期往复 2 数据来源：国金证券研究所整理 • 生产特性：生猪的生长速度无法加快，从能繁母猪配种开始生产需要10个月的时间，通过后备时间更长；而市面上 补充后备母猪为50-80KG，需要饲养至120KG以上才可以开始配种，猪价指导生产，盈利增产/亏损减产，现今亦然 如此而养殖户在决策上存在一定的时滞性， • 时滞性的来源： • 1.对后市的预期（预期乐观⬆/悲观⬇） • 2.养殖户手中的资金(宽松⬆/紧张⬇) • 以上特点使得盈利情况指引未来产能方向，亏损时间越长产能去化越充分，非瘟前每一轮周期上行多在2年左右。 图：生猪繁育体系示意图 数据来源：国金证券研究所整理 3 图：历史猪周期总结（元/公斤） | | 周期跨度 | 上行区间 | 下行区间 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 最高价 | 最低价 | 波动幅度 | | 第一轮 | 2006/5-2010/4 | 2006/5-2008/3 | 2008/4-2010/4 | 17.45 | 6.76 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The agricultural industry achieved a revenue of CNY 11,498.20 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.68%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders rose to CNY 466.39 billion, an increase of 806.55% [6][17] - In Q1 2025, the industry reported a revenue of CNY 2,706.77 billion, a year-on-year growth of 6.79%, with a net profit of CNY 133.13 billion, up 795.07% [6][17] - The overall profitability of the industry improved significantly in Q1 2025, with gross profit margin at 12.91%, net profit margin at 5.16%, and return on equity (ROE) at 2.57%, all showing year-on-year increases [21][30] Summary by Sections Overall Industry Performance - In 2024, the agricultural industry saw a slight decline in revenue but a substantial increase in net profit, indicating improved profitability despite lower sales [17] - The profitability metrics for Q1 2025 showed significant improvements compared to the previous year, with a notable decrease in the expense ratio [21] Sub-industry Analysis - The livestock sector experienced a remarkable increase in net profit, with pig farming turning profitable in 2024 and continuing strong performance into 2025 [6][29] - The poultry farming sector also showed strong growth, with net profit increasing significantly due to reduced feed costs and improved efficiency [43][44] - The pet food sector maintained high growth rates, with revenues and profits continuing to rise [6][25] Livestock Farming - In 2024, pig farming companies generated CNY 4,370.03 billion in revenue, a slight decline, but net profit surged to CNY 320.13 billion, reflecting a recovery in profitability [29] - In Q1 2025, revenues for pig farming increased by 18.69% year-on-year, with net profit rising by 236.12% [29][30] Poultry Farming - Poultry farming companies achieved a revenue of CNY 520.71 billion in 2024, with a net profit of CNY 28.49 billion, marking a significant increase [43] - In Q1 2025, revenue continued to grow, reaching CNY 118.71 billion, with net profit increasing to CNY 4.51 billion [43][44] Feed Industry - The feed industry reported a revenue of CNY 1,863.30 billion in 2024, with a net profit of CNY 52.48 billion, showing a significant recovery in profitability [58] - In Q1 2025, revenues rose to CNY 428.66 billion, with net profit increasing to CNY 15.26 billion [58][61] Animal Health - The animal health sector saw a revenue of CNY 129.02 billion in 2024, with a net profit of CNY 10.82 billion, despite a decline in profitability [66] - In Q1 2025, revenues increased to CNY 30.96 billion, with net profit rising to CNY 4.26 billion [66]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The agriculture industry achieved a revenue of 11,498.20 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.68%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders rose to 466.39 billion yuan, an increase of 806.55% [4][14] - In Q1 2025, the industry reported a revenue of 2,706.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 6.79%, and a net profit of 133.13 billion yuan, up 795.07% year-on-year [4][14] - The profitability indicators showed improvement, with the gross profit margin at 12.91% in Q1 2025, up 5.74 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin at 5.16%, an increase of 6.18 percentage points year-on-year [4][18] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The livestock sector saw significant year-on-year profit growth, with poultry farming, livestock farming, feed, and pet food sectors showing net profit increases of 1,109.96%, 389.01%, 230.88%, and 75.67% respectively in 2024 [5][20] - In Q1 2025, the net profit growth rates for feed, poultry farming, livestock farming, aquaculture, animal health, and pet food sectors were 962.42%, 588.35%, 254.62%, 117.28%, and 21.27% respectively [5][20] Weekly Perspective - The swine sector shows low-positioning value, with the recovery of profitability and consumer demand boosting the sector. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [6][24] - The feed sector benefits from the post-cycle of poultry and livestock, with strong overseas demand supporting prices. Recommended stocks include Haida Group and New Hope Liuhe [6][24] - The pet sector is experiencing a rise in domestic brands due to consumption upgrades and tariff barriers, with recommended stocks including Guai Bao Pet, Zhong Chong Co., and Petty Co. [6][26] Market Performance - During the week of April 28 to May 2, the agriculture index underperformed the market by 0.08 percentage points, with the agriculture index down 0.56% [7][27] - The feed sector led the gains among sub-sectors, with individual stocks like Ruip Biotech, New Sai Co., and Daodaoquan leading the market [7][32] Price Tracking - As of May 2, the average price of live pigs was 14.84 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the average price of white strip meat rose by 0.11 yuan/kg to 19.2 yuan/kg [8][37] - The average price of beef increased to 69.03 yuan/kg, reflecting a 0.74% rise [8][43] - The average price of bass rose to 35.30 yuan/kg, up 3.82% from the previous week [8][48]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The industry experienced a decline in revenue in 2024 but saw a significant increase in net profit, indicating improved profitability. The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue growth of 6.79% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 795.07% [4][14] - The livestock sector, particularly poultry and pet food, demonstrated high growth rates in net profit, with poultry farming seeing a 1109.96% increase in 2024 and a 588.35% increase in Q1 2025 [5][20] - The report highlights the recovery of the pig cycle and the upward trend in pig prices, suggesting a favorable outlook for the livestock sector [6][24] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - In 2024, the agriculture industry achieved a revenue of 11,498.20 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3.68%, while net profit reached 466.39 billion yuan, an increase of 806.55%. In Q1 2025, revenue was 2,706.77 billion yuan, up 6.79%, and net profit was 133.13 billion yuan, up 795.07% [4][14] Weekly Viewpoint - The pig sector shows low valuation and potential for recovery, supported by consumption revival. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and others. The feed sector benefits from strong domestic and overseas demand [6][24] Market Performance - During the week of April 28 to May 2, the agriculture index underperformed the market by 0.08 percentage points, with the agriculture index down 0.56% [7][27] Price Tracking - As of May 2, the average price of live pigs was 14.84 yuan/kg, a slight decrease from the previous week. The average price of piglets was 36.88 yuan/kg, also down slightly [8][37]

Core Viewpoint - The overall net profit of 5,399 listed companies in A-shares for 2024 is projected to be 5.2142 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.23% compared to 2023, with only the Shanghai Main Board showing a slight increase of 2.79% [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the total net profit for 5,399 companies was only 786.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 14.18%, with the Shanghai Main Board being the only sector to show a slight increase of 0.81% [4]. - The number of loss-making companies in 2024 reached 1,449, accounting for 26.84% of the total [3]. - In Q1 2025, there was a slight recovery with a total net profit of 1.4896 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.61% year-on-year, driven by significant growth in the Shenzhen Growth Enterprise Market [4][8]. Sector Analysis - The banking sector remains the most profitable, with 42 banks earning 485.59 billion yuan in Q4 2024, representing 61.70% of the total profit of 786.98 billion yuan for all companies [7]. - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector saw the highest increase in net profit for 2024 at 1,486.40%, largely due to the pig cycle [8]. - The real estate sector experienced the most significant decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 3,228.65% in 2024, indicating ongoing challenges in the industry [8]. Company Performance - The top ten companies by net profit in 2024 were all from the Shanghai Main Board, predominantly banks, with the highest being Shanghai Pudong Development Bank at 3.62366 billion yuan [11]. - The bottom ten companies included several from the real estate sector, with Vanke A reporting a loss of 553.63 million yuan, marking it as the largest loss-maker [14]. Quarterly Performance Trends - In Q4 2024, 13 out of 32 industries reported losses, with the media and real estate sectors being the most affected [8]. - By Q1 2025, only the real estate sector reported losses, indicating a potential stabilization in other sectors [8].

牧原股份此前曾在业绩预告中表示，公司一季度业绩大增的主要原因是生猪出栏量、生猪销售均价较去年同期上升，且生猪养殖成本较去年同期下降。 其中，营收达到200亿的有3家，营收同比增长的有9家，正邦科技（002157）以108.22%的同比增幅领跑全场；归母净利润超过20亿的有2家，牧原股份 （002714）以44.91亿元稳居榜首；归母净利润实现同比增长的有8家，且除了东瑞股份（001201）增速为93.31%外，其余公司增速均超100%，神农集团 （605296）更是以6510.85%的增速成为当之无愧的"黑马"。 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 营业收入 | 营业收入同比变化 | 归母净 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (亿元) | (%) | | | 002714. SZ | 牧原股份 | 360. 61 | 37. 26 | 44 | | 300498. SZ | 温氏股份 | 243. 18 | 11. 34 | 20 | | 000876. SZ | 新希望 | 244. 17 | 2. 13 | 4. | | 605296. SH | 神农集团 | 1 ...

文/纸不语 三年内实现年产值1800亿元，挺进世界500强；五年内实现年产值3000亿元，在世界500强中进位赶超......当正邦集团董事长林印孙在2021年11月放出这一豪 言时却没料到，仅仅数月后，正邦集团便陷入资金危机，供应商讨债、员工讨薪、代养户讨要代养费，甚至出现"猪吃猪"现象。 作为正邦集团核心子公司，江西正邦科技股份有限公司（以下简称"正邦科技"）的资金问题也不断曝光。其在2023年1月31日披露的业绩预告更是惊动了深 交所。正邦科技在预告中称，"预计归属于上市公司股东的净利润亏损110亿至130亿元，扣非后净利润亏损95亿至115亿元，母公司所有者权益为-84亿至-64 亿元。亏损主因是生猪销售规模和价格下降，报告期费用35亿至45亿元，以及计提资产减值准备30亿至40亿元。" 尽管林印孙和正邦集团曾尝试通过A股融资等手段进行"自救"，但还是难以扭转高负债率的局面。 图源：环球人物 正邦集团的崛起与林印孙的野心 2003年，凭借饲料加工和兽药研发优势，正邦集团开始进入生猪养殖业。随后，乘着猪肉价格上涨的东风，2007年8月17日，正邦集团通过其控股的正邦科 技在深交所成功上市，成为江西首家民 ...