美联储主席鲍威尔：亚特兰大联储的GDP模型并未显示美国经济衰退的迹象。 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of National Security emphasizes that technological self-reliance is crucial for national security, highlighting the need for coordinated development and security to address risks in the tech sector [1] - The Summer Davos Forum is expected to enhance global economic stability and cooperation, with record attendance indicating a strong commitment to economic globalization and trade [2] - The total market size of bond ETFs has surpassed 352.41 billion, with two ETFs crossing the 50 billion mark, indicating a growing interest in bond investments [3] Group 2 - Huawei collaborates with Softcom and other partners to develop intelligent robots for manufacturing, focusing on humanoid robots for various applications [4] - A breakthrough in bidirectional high thermal conductivity graphite film has been achieved, which could provide critical materials for high-power device thermal management [5] - Guangzhou aims for over 90% of new cars to be L2 or higher level intelligent connected vehicles by 2027, indicating a strong push towards smart and connected automotive technology [6] Group 3 - Concerns about a potential recession in the U.S. have been raised, with predictions of a 25% drop in the S&P 500 index, reflecting investor anxiety [7] - The Chinese government is initiating a special rectification campaign in the government procurement sector to address various illegal activities, which may impact procurement practices [8] - China is actively participating in international scientific programs, including ITER and other major initiatives, showcasing its commitment to global scientific collaboration [9][10]

关税仍是重大威胁。当前实际关税税率徘徊在15%左右，Berezin认为这很危险，若特朗普不尽快巩固贸易协议，企业将价格上涨转嫁给消费者， 经济或面临重大痛苦。低于10%的关税对经济破坏性较小，但他对特朗普将关税降至这一水平不抱希望，甚至认为特朗普可能提高制药、半导体 和木材等行业关税。 一些策略师希望特朗普"大而美"法案通过减税提振经济，但无资金支持的减税可能推高债券收益率，抵消刺激措施。Berezin强调，即将到来的经 济衰退中"没有其他路可走"。（陈十一） 【环球网财经综合报道】随着美国总统特朗普设定的90天"关税暂缓期"临近，7月9日若各国未与美达成贸易协议，"对等关税"将生效，投资者担 忧情绪近日加剧。 市场研究公司BCA Research分析师Peter Berezin态度悲观，预计美国经济今年大概率衰退，美股将大幅下跌。他将衰退可能性从75%降至60%，但 称这仍是基本预期，在此预期下，标普500指数将跌至4500点左右，较上周五收盘价下跌25%。他表示，无需太多事件就会引发这样的下跌，目前 很难对股市或经济持乐观态度。 Berezin指出，美国经济早有疲软迹象。自2022年初以来，职位空缺呈下降 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 06 月 18 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 棉花、棉纱日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 期货盘面 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 空盘量 | 增减量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CF01合约 | 13545 | 15 | 23,412 | -3475 | 151,537 | 3618 | | CF05合约 | 13540 | 5 | 1,897 | 1318 | 4,409 | 779 | | CF09合约 | 13540 | 15 | 124,617 | -21025 | 533,428 | -118 | | CY01合约 | 19810 | 19810 | 2 | 2 | 37 | -1 | | CY05合约 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | CY09合约 | 19840 | 65 | 7430 | 1 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. economy is likely to experience a systematic and gradual weakening rather than a clear segmentation of inflation followed by stagnation, with increasing risks of non-farm payroll declines [1][8][37] - Recent economic data changes in the U.S. are not keeping pace with asset price fluctuations and macro narratives, indicating a divergence between hard and soft data [3][5] - The negative impacts of various non-tariff policies are becoming increasingly evident, contributing to the suppression of U.S. economic growth [5][8] Group 2 - The rate and potential magnitude of inflation are declining, with the U.S. CPI readings falling short of expectations for four consecutive months [9][11] - There is no significant inflation in tariff-sensitive sectors, and the demand-side weakness is likely to impose stronger price constraints [11][13] - Concerns about stagnation are rising as labor market data shows signs of weakening, despite stable non-farm employment figures [16][21] Group 3 - Service consumption is expected to be the first to reflect the weakening of the U.S. economy, with signs of declining consumer willingness [27][28] - The structure of disposable income growth is unhealthy, with a significant portion coming from government welfare rather than labor income [29][33] - The overall consumption willingness is decreasing, which will further suppress service consumption levels [37]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the manufacturing sector in the U.S. is showing further signs of deterioration, with the New York Fed manufacturing index dropping from -9.2 to -16 in June, reflecting a lack of recovery [2] - The New York Fed's new orders index also fell significantly from 7 to -14.2, indicating a deepening contraction in the manufacturing sector [2] - The ongoing trade war initiated by President Trump aimed to bring manufacturing back to the U.S., but it has disrupted supply chains, exacerbating the decline in manufacturing [2] Group 2 - The U.S. economy is currently experiencing widespread turmoil, with increased uncertainty overshadowing economic prospects [2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is anticipated to focus on monetary policy direction, with expectations that the Fed may maintain current interest rates due to Chairman Powell's cautious stance on easing [2] - There is a belief that the Fed should lower interest rates promptly given the economic challenges, but various factors are causing delays in such actions, potentially increasing downward pressure on the economy [2] Group 3 - The potential for "black swan" events could lead to a crisis for the U.S. economy, further undermining the dollar and American hegemony [3]

Economic Overview - Recent economic data in the U.S. shows marginal changes that do not match the volatility in asset prices and macro narratives, indicating a potential economic slowdown[3] - Tariff inflation has not materialized as expected, and the divergence between hard and soft data is beginning to correct, but this does not imply a weakening economy[3] Inflation and Tariff Impact - The probability of tariff inflation being lower than expected is increasing, with oil prices becoming a highly volatile variable affecting this outlook[3] - The U.S. effective tariff rate has significantly increased, but the transmission mechanism to the real economy remains unclear[12] Employment and Consumption Trends - The baseline scenario suggests a systematic weakening of the U.S. economy rather than a clear fracture in any specific sector, with service consumption and employment showing signs of caution[4] - Non-farm payroll risks are increasing, with potential monthly growth dropping to around 50,000 or even negative levels[4] Risks and Uncertainties - Increased uncertainty in the Middle East could significantly raise oil prices, leading to higher inflation in the U.S.[5] - Trump's domestic policies face greater resistance, which may lead to increased fiscal stimulus and unexpected monetary easing from the Federal Reserve[5] Labor Market Dynamics - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of decoupling, with rising unemployment rates despite stable non-farm payroll data, indicating a potential shift in labor supply dynamics[27] - Permanent unemployment numbers are approaching 2 million, reflecting a concerning upward trend in the labor market[35] Consumer Behavior - Consumer sentiment is declining, as evidenced by a significant drop in auto sales and rising savings rates, indicating a cautious approach to spending[44] - The contribution of government social benefits to disposable income growth is concerning, as it suggests increased reliance on social safety nets rather than labor income[46]

王爷说财经讯：6月9日消息，虽说现在美国劳动市场表面上还算稳定，但特朗普那反复无常的贸易政策，可把商界折腾惨了。 这政策变来变去，企业们根本没法为未来制定投资计划呀！ 而且美联储（Fed）也很头疼。因为担心关税措施会让通货膨胀抬头，所以即便经济形势不太妙，也不敢轻易降息。 这下可好，外界都在担心美国经济在今年夏天会变得更加艰难，甚至有可能陷入衰退！ 另外，美国民众的消费需求也变得犹豫不决，不敢大手大脚花钱了。 对此，《华尔街日报》分析报道说，美国经济今年夏天不好过，这和安联经济顾问——伊尔艾朗 （Mohamed El-Erian）一周前预测的Fed将进入 「艰难的夏天」不谋而合。 更早之前，阿波罗全球管理公司首席经济师——史洛克（Torsten Slok）就预测经济要陷入衰退了。 实际上，王爷说财经注意到，好多专家和机构都把这经济问题的"锅"甩给特朗普的关税政策。 例如：研究顾问公司Beacon Economics创办合伙人之一桑博格（Christopher Thornberg）就分析评论称，美国经济走向全看特朗普怎么决策，可关 键是特朗普自己都不知道下一步要干啥，外界就更没法预测啦！ 现在大部分经济学家都觉 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential challenges facing the U.S. economy as it navigates through uncertain trade policies and a fragile labor market, which could lead to significant economic disruptions [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining stable between 4% and 4.2% over the past year, indicating a seemingly healthy labor market [1]. - However, there are underlying issues, such as a slowdown in job growth and a cooling real estate market, which raise concerns about future economic stability [1]. Group 2: Risks to the Economy - The article identifies three major risks that could lead to severe economic consequences: a fragile labor market, potential declines in consumer spending, and financial market shocks [3][4][5]. - The labor market is described as being in an unstable equilibrium, where companies are hesitant to lay off employees but are also not hiring, which could lead to a sudden spike in unemployment if demand weakens [4]. - Consumer debt delinquency rates have been rising, raising concerns that low-income borrowers may cut back on spending, which could further slow economic growth [5]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Challenges - The Federal Reserve is facing four significant challenges: unpredictable tariff policies, uncertainty in government fiscal policies, discrepancies in economic data, and the unpredictable impact of innovations like AI [2]. - The Fed has paused interest rate cuts due to concerns over new inflation risks stemming from tariffs, which could lead to increased borrowing costs and affect corporate profitability [6]. Group 4: Corporate Strategies - Companies are adopting various strategies to cope with the current economic challenges, with some choosing to wait and see while others adjust their supply chains [7]. - There is a consensus among economists that the key to avoiding a recession lies in the health of the U.S. consumer, with many believing the likelihood of a recession has increased compared to earlier in the year [7][8].

Group 1 - The international spot gold price opened at $3289.05, reached a high of $3403.14, and closed at $3308.83, with an increase of $20.14 or 0.61% [1] - The US dollar index opened at 99.42 points, closed at 99.19 points, and decreased by 0.23% [3] - The Wellxin precious metals index (gold, silver, palladium, platinum) opened at 6281.00 points, closed at 6592.81 points, with an increase of 4.98% [3] Group 2 - Silver price increased by 8.93% and closed at $35.91 [4] - Platinum price rose by 10.68% and closed at $1170.60 [5] - Palladium price increased by 7.64% and closed at $1046.25 [5] Group 3 - NYMEX crude oil price rose by 6.55% and closed at $64.77 [7] - The Dow Jones index increased by 1.17% and closed at 42762.87 points [7] - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.50% and closed at 5802.82 points [7] Group 4 - The US ISM manufacturing index fell to 49.9, indicating a slight recession [12][14] - The US non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 13.9 million, but previous months' data were revised down significantly [16][17] - The US unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, indicating a potential upward trend in unemployment [20] Group 5 - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month, but the monthly net purchase decreased to 1.86621 tons [31][33] - The average hourly wage in the US was $31.16, with a year-on-year increase of 4.01%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [22][24]