Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the silver market, highlighting price movements and the implications of recent Federal Reserve decisions on economic outlook and monetary policy [1][3][4]. Market Overview - As of August 4, 2025, the spot silver price is at $37.34 per ounce, with a trading range between $36.66 and $37.39 during the day [1][2]. - The silver market is experiencing fluctuations, with key support levels identified at $36.75 and $36.55, and resistance levels at $37.20 and $37.50 [5]. Federal Reserve Insights - The dissenting votes from Fed governors Bowman and Waller mark a significant internal division within the Federal Reserve, the first of its kind since late 1993, indicating differing views on employment and economic forecasts [3]. - Cleveland Fed President Mester expresses confidence in the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates, despite disappointing employment data, emphasizing the need to monitor future employment figures and inflation [3]. Political Influence - Former President Trump’s criticism of Fed Chair Powell and calls for significant interest rate cuts add complexity to the Fed's policy discussions, although internal Fed responses have been largely dismissive [4]. - The dynamics within the Fed, including potential future leadership changes, are influenced by these political pressures, but the overall policy direction remains focused on inflation concerns stemming from trade policies [4]. Technical Analysis - The technical outlook for silver suggests a cautious approach, with the price remaining below a recently broken upward channel, indicating a neutral to bearish sentiment [5]. - Key indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Average Directional Index (ADX) suggest a weak trend, with potential for consolidation in the short term [5].

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇8月4日｜法国外贸银行经济学家Christopher Hodge表示，代理美国劳工统计局局长是一位资深技 术官僚，这实属一项利好。展望未来，如果数据的真实性受到损害，这将使市场和美联储处于非常危险 的境地。预计美联储会更依赖褐皮书的定性信息。库格勒的任期本就定于明年1月结束，因此政策层面 不会有重大变化。虽然目前没有迹象表明她是出于抗议而辞职，但这一时机确实耐人寻味。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the precious metals market, with gold's non - farm data weakening and silver falling from a high. The trend strength for both gold and silver is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][6]. 3. Content Summaries by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Fundamental Data - **Prices**: -沪金2510 closed at 770.72 with a daily increase of 0.06% and a night - session close of 781.12 with a 1.33% increase; Comex黄金2510 closed at 3416.00 with a 2.21% increase; London gold spot closed at 3362.09 with a 2.25% increase [2]. -沪银2510 closed at 8918 with a - 0.98% decrease and a night - session close of 8994.00 with a 0.80% increase; Comex白银2510 closed at 37.105 with a 0.86% increase; London silver spot closed at 37.025 with a 0.97% increase [2]. - **Trading Volume and Positions**: -沪金2510 contract's trading volume was 189,185, a decrease of 71,516 from the previous day, and its position was 218,768, an increase of 1,688 [2]. -沪银2510's trading volume was 587,441, a decrease of 513,199 from the previous day, and its position was 365,193, a decrease of 5,917 [2]. - **ETF Holdings**: - SPDR黄金ETF持仓 was 953.08, a decrease of 1; SLV白银ETF持仓 (the day before yesterday) was 15,056.67, a decrease of 6 [2]. - **Inventory**: -沪金 inventory was 35,745 kg, an increase of 102 kg; Comex黄金 inventory (the day before yesterday) was 38,675,474 troy ounces, an increase of 161,012 troy ounces [2]. -沪银 inventory was 1,183,957 kg, a decrease of 24,076 kg; Comex白银 inventory (the day before yesterday) was 505,219,644 troy ounces, an increase of 881,335 troy ounces [2]. - **Spreads**: - The spread between沪金2510 contract and 2512 contract was 189,185, a decrease of 71,516; the spread between沪银2510 contract and 2512 contract was - 8,261, an increase of 176 [2]. - The cost of the spread arbitrage of buying沪金 December and selling June was 4.77, a decrease of 0.87; the cost of the spread arbitrage of buying沪银 December and selling June was 73.41, a decrease of 11.3 [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: - The US dollar to offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 7.22, an increase of 0.23%; the euro to US dollar was 1.16 with no change; the US dollar to Japanese yen was 147.42, an increase of 0.05; the British pound to US dollar was 1.21 with no change [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The US added 73,000 non - farm jobs in July, far lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was revised down by 258,000 [3]. - Trump blamed the weak non - farm data on officials appointed by Biden and called for the dismissal of the Bureau of Statistics director [5]. - There is an "open" internal struggle within the Fed. Two senior officials said "employment remains robust", while two opponents issued a statement saying "waiting is a mistake" [5]. - Fed Governor Kugler announced her resignation on August 8 [7]. - Trump threatened sanctions and demanded that Russia and Ukraine reach an agreement before August 8. Putin said that if someone was disappointed with the results of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks so far, it was because of "over - expectations" [7]. - OPEC+ agreed in principle to significantly increase production again in September [6].

氧化铝及电解铝月报 2025 年 8 月 4 日 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 关注库存动向 铝价震荡调整 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com.cn 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 20 ⚫ 氧化铝方面，成本端几内亚雨季影响矿石发运或对矿 价形成支撑，同时烧碱价格企稳反弹，未来成本端对 氧化铝支撑预计较好。供应端，氧化铝产能提升，但 现货供应增速有限，呈现一定程度的结构性紧缺，交 易所库存短暂提升之后再度回落至极低位置震荡。消 息面"反内卷"产能优化消息后续仍可能助推市场情 绪，预计短时 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent week in the U.S. stock market was marked by strong earnings reports from major tech companies, yet overshadowed by new tariff fluctuations and a disappointing employment report, leading to a chaotic and contradictory market environment [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market is grappling with conflicting signals, including a significant drop in short-term Treasury yields due to a poor non-farm employment report and new tariff uncertainties [3]. - Despite strong quarterly earnings from major tech firms, the muted stock price reactions suggest that market expectations have become more stringent [4]. - Small-cap stocks faced their worst week since last year, with the Russell 2000 index dropping 4% over five consecutive trading days, indicating a lack of market breadth [4]. Group 2: Tariff Implications - New tariff fluctuations have reintroduced uncertainty into the market, although many market participants no longer view tariffs as a primary decision-making factor [5]. - Goldman Sachs economists predict that the average effective tariff rate in the U.S. will rise by 9 percentage points, with cumulative increases of 14 and 17 percentage points expected by the end of this year and next year, respectively [5]. Group 3: Fund Flows and Leverage - Recent weeks have seen a shift in fund flows towards risk aversion, with a notable decline in speculative positions and retail investor demand expected to decrease as August approaches [6]. - The overall leverage in the market has seen its largest decline since June 2023, indicating better control over excessive risk exposure [6]. Group 4: Global Perspective - In the global asset allocation landscape, U.S. assets, particularly tech stocks, remain favorable despite a temporary sell-off in April [7]. - The report acknowledges strong performance in the Chinese market, especially in the tech sector, but notes that the market is still waiting for domestic consumption to be fully realized [7]. Group 5: Federal Reserve Challenges - The Federal Reserve's inaction amidst significant events raises concerns about the risk of policy missteps, particularly as core commodity inflation rises while the labor market weakens [8]. - Traders are advised to pay attention to market signals, with short-term options becoming an important tool for professional fund managers [8].

原创 经济学家洪灝 洪灝的宏观策略 2025年08月02日 市场质疑统计数据的声音四起。很多人认为出现如此大的就业数据下修，那么一定是统计局局长水平不够，或者是就业数据被掺水了，并据此而 对于特朗普的斩首行动拍手称快。如果各位还记得，在不到一年前，2024年的9月大选前，特朗普的手下干将Rubio认为当时的就业数据显著地低 估了拜登时期经济困难的状况。也就是说，卢比奥不到一年前认为美国的就业数据太高了，美化了拜登的执政政绩。那么，现在特朗普又认为就 业数据太低了，并以此为借口炒掉了劳力统计局局长，不免有选择性执法之嫌。顺便说一下，这位局长是拜登任命的。 上一次美国劳动统计局局长被炒，还是1932年大萧条时期。当时由于局长不同意胡佛的经济政策，胡佛就把他炒了，而大萧条继续。 特朗普不仅仅炒掉了局座，他还在自己的社交媒体上继续对于美联储主席鲍威尔攻击施压。这是过去几年来，特朗普在自己的社交媒体上攻击鲍 威尔最频繁的一次，并在上周实地视察了美联储斥资30亿美元的装修工程，当面施压。特朗普认为鲍威尔早就应该降息，但补充说不"会马上炒掉 鲍威尔"，然后又加了一句"如果不是担心市场波动，早就把他炒了"。随后，媒体又爆出了 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently in a volatile phase, with expectations surrounding the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data influencing trading strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Recent gold price movements have shown a slight rebound, closing at $3289, indicating a small bullish trend despite overall bearish sentiment [1]. - The rebound in gold prices is attributed to increased global trade uncertainties, rising inflation pressures in the U.S., and heightened geopolitical tensions [1]. - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is critical, as weak data could reignite rate cut expectations, potentially boosting gold prices, while strong data may reinforce a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, putting downward pressure on gold [1][2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The recent rebound in gold prices was stronger than anticipated, suggesting limited adjustment space in the short term, with key support around $3270 and resistance near $3300 [2]. - A breakout above the $3300 level could lead to testing the 10 and 20-day moving averages around $3340, while a negative non-farm report could push prices down to the $3260-$3250 range [2]. - The suggested trading strategy includes short positions at $3300-$3305 with a stop loss at $3315 and a target of $3250 [3]. Group 3: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic indicators to watch include the U.S. unemployment rate, adjusted non-farm employment figures, and average hourly wage data, all scheduled for release at 20:30 on August 1 [4]. - Additional data points include the final value of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and consumer confidence index, which will provide further insights into the economic landscape [4].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic commodities futures mostly closed higher, with the crude oil sector generally rising [1]. - Overseas commodity demand is experiencing a short - term weak recovery, housing prices are weakly stable, and job vacancies are lower than expected. Attention should be paid to the latest non - farm data and earnings reports. The US tariff policies may be implemented, with uncertainties remaining [7]. - The tone of the domestic policy meeting is in line with expectations, focusing on improving the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. Policies will be more flexible and forward - looking. There are administrative production - cut expectations in some industries, and domestic demand is stable with resilient exports [7]. - Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. Pay attention to the progress of China - US tariff negotiations and policy signals from the Politburo meeting. Overseas, be aware of tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. A weak US dollar pattern persists in the long - term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: US May FHFA housing price index monthly rate was - 0.2%. US consumers' willingness to buy real estate, cars, and household durables is fluctuating at a low level. US June JOLTs job vacancies were 7.437 million, lower than expected. US tariff policies may be implemented before August 1st and 12th [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: The Politburo meeting's policy tone is in line with expectations, emphasizing using existing policies effectively. There are administrative production - cut expectations in some industries. Domestic demand is stable, and exports are resilient [7]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets have structural opportunities. Overseas, pay attention to multiple risks. Maintain strategic allocations to resources like gold and copper [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner due to the strengthening of the technology - growth sector. Index options may experience volatile movements. Treasury bond futures will be affected by the Politburo meeting and China - US economic and trade talks [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase, affected by Trump's tariff policies and Fed's monetary policies [8]. - **Shipping**: The sentiment of the shipping industry has declined. The focus is on the sustainability of the increase in the June loading rate of container shipping to Europe [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: The trend of black building materials has reversed. Most varieties are expected to move in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as production, cost, and policy [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Non - ferrous metals are expected to receive support from the upcoming stable - growth plan. Most non - ferrous metal prices are expected to move in a volatile manner, affected by supply, demand, and policy factors [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil supply is increasing. Most chemical products are expected to move in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost. Some products like asphalt and high/low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to decline [10]. - **Agriculture**: Cotton prices have declined, and the month - spread has decreased. Most agricultural products are expected to move in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as weather, supply, and demand [10].

Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% and Powell's comments reduced the expectation of a rate cut in September from 65% to 45%, which weakened gold's appeal and increased downward pressure on gold prices [3] - The ADP employment report showed a higher-than-expected increase in private sector jobs for July, and the second quarter GDP growth rate was 3.0%, both of which diminished market expectations for Fed easing and led to gold sell-off [3] - The global macro environment has seen the Trump administration reach several trade agreements and impose high tariffs, which alleviated concerns about the U.S. withdrawing from global affairs, boosting confidence in the dollar but increasing global economic uncertainty [3] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold experienced a significant decline after a brief correction, indicating a continued weak trend. The 5-day moving average has crossed below multiple longer-term averages, suggesting a bearish outlook [6] - Key resistance is identified at 3310, and as long as gold prices remain below this level, a bearish stance is advised. The primary support level is at 3268, with further support at 3248/3245 if this level is breached [6][7] - On the four-hour chart, gold failed to hold above the previous low of 3302/3301 and instead broke lower, necessitating close monitoring of the downward trend. The key level to watch is 3334, which, if surpassed, could indicate a potential reversal [7]