美国政府停摆已经进入第36天，刷新1879年以来最长纪录！13000名空管、50000名TSA安检员无薪上 岗，航空公司已经炸锅。美国运输部长达菲放出狠话：如果本周五前还谈不拢，就从周五开始对40个主 要机场削减10%的计划航班！这意味着全美航空即将陷入大混乱，航班大面积延误、取消就在眼前。避 险情绪瞬间点燃黄金！市场也不乏利空消息：美国10月ADP小非农大超预期，新增就业4.2万个，高于 市场预估的2.8万个；10月ISM非制造业PMI更是飙升至52.4，创下今年2月以来最高水平。新订单指数 强劲，服务业活动全面开花。数据一出，市场瞬间"鹰"声四起，美联储12月降息概率从上周的95%暴跌 至62%，周三一度只有58%！美元指数盘中冲高100.36，创5月29日以来新高；10年期美债收益率暴涨 1.86%，收盘4.16%，创10月7日以来最高。需要提醒的是，但好于预期的ADP数据可能并不意味着劳 动力市场发生了实质性变化，因为一些行业，例如专业商业服务业，已经连续第三个月裁员，但确实有 助于缓解人们对劳动力市场疲软的担忧。短期看，美元200日均线压力、美债收益率冲高，都会给金价 制造波动；但中期看，政府停摆无 ...

Core Insights - The ADP employment number for October in the U.S. increased from a previous value of -29,000 to 42,000, surpassing the expected value of 28,000, although it remains at a historical low [2] - The significant rise in employment numbers amid the government shutdown, which has led to missing non-farm payroll data, increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate cuts in December [2] - The current uncertainties facing the U.S. economy are increasing rather than decreasing, making the economic outlook more ambiguous and significantly raising risks [2] Economic Policy Implications - The Federal Reserve is perceived to be lagging behind economic trends, often reacting to economic data rather than proactively shaping monetary policy, which amplifies economic volatility [2] - The potential for "black swan" events poses additional negative shocks to the U.S. economy, suggesting a less optimistic outlook [2] Market Sentiment - The quote from Warren Buffett highlights the idea that the true vulnerabilities in the economy may only become apparent when economic conditions worsen, raising questions about who may be unprepared for such challenges [2]

美国10月份制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）显示，美国制造业活动有所放缓，PMI从9月的49.1降至 48.7，低于市场预期的49.5。尽管这一数据给美元带来一定压力，但美国政府停摆所带来的不确定性为 避险资产提供了部分支撑。投资者目前聚焦即将发布的10月ADP就业数据，若数据疲软，可能为黄金提 供短期支撑。 美元强势与美联储政策：市场普遍预期美联储将在12月维持利率不变，这将继续支撑美元走强，从而限 制黄金上涨的空间。投资者应密切关注美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）成员的讲话，寻找关于未来货 币政策的更多线索。 在周二亚洲交易时段，黄金价格再度跌破4000美元，未能延续前期的反弹。美联储主席鲍威尔近期的讲 话中重申，今年是否再次降息"不确定"，市场对降息预期大幅下降，这助推美元进一步走强。随着美元 走高，黄金的吸引力受到压制，特别是在美联储的鹰派态度下，黄金价格难以突破上行阻力。 中国的增值税政策调整进一步削弱了黄金的短期需求，尤其是零售市场的影响尤为明显。该政策实施 后，国内黄金交易活动受限，多个国有银行暂停黄金兑换与开户，令市场情绪变得更加谨慎。这一政策 对全球最大实物黄金买家之一的中国短期需求造成压力， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, after a continuous rise, the hot sectors are rotating rapidly, with technology remaining the market's main line. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the central bank's restart of trading treasury bonds is short - term positive for the bond market sentiment. In the fourth quarter, the bond market is mainly affected by fundamentals, the implementation time of fund fee regulations, and institutional allocation power. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [7]. - For precious metals, with the Fed's indication of future easing policies, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver are provided [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different outlooks. For example, copper prices are expected to be supported at the bottom; aluminum prices may be supported by supply - side disturbances; zinc and lead are expected to be strong in the short - term; nickel is recommended to be observed in the short - term; tin is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to go long on dips; the lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate after a correction; alumina is recommended to be observed; stainless steel is expected to continue to be weak; and casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to be strongly supported [12][14][17][19][21][24][26][29][30][32]. - For black building materials, steel demand is in the off - season, but future demand may recover. Iron ore prices are at risk of a phased decline. Glass and soda ash markets have different supply - demand situations and price trends. Manganese silicon and silicon iron are likely to follow the black sector's trend. Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices are affected by supply and demand and are expected to be weak in the short - term [35][37][39][41][45][47][50]. - For energy chemicals, rubber is recommended for short - term long trading with a stop - loss set. Oil prices are recommended to be observed in the short - term. Methanol, urea, and PVC are recommended to be observed. Pure benzene and styrene prices may stop falling. Ethylene glycol is recommended to be shorted on rallies. PTA is recommended to focus on processing fee repair opportunities. PX is recommended to be observed as it mainly follows crude oil fluctuations [56][58][60][63][65][70][72][75]. - For agricultural products, it is recommended to short pigs on rallies; eggs are expected to be strong in the short - term; bean and rapeseed meal are expected to rise in the short - term and be shorted on rebounds in the medium - term; palm oil is recommended to be treated as oscillating weakly before exports improve; sugar is recommended to be shorted after a rebound; and cotton is expected to continue to oscillate [83][85][88][90][93][95]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: The central bank conducted 700 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on November 5th. The 2025 6G Development Conference will be held in Beijing from November 13th - 14th. Apple tightened its China - region distribution channels. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley warned of a decline in the US stock market in the next two years, while expressing continued interest in China from global capital allocators [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different terms are provided [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After a continuous rise, the hot sectors are rotating rapidly, with technology remaining the main line. The long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On November 3rd, Fed governors mentioned potential interest rate cuts. US financial system liquidity is approaching a dangerous level. On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 117.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 357.8 billion yuan [5][6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The central bank's restart of trading treasury bonds is short - term positive for the bond market. In the fourth quarter, the bond market is affected by multiple factors and is expected to oscillate and recover [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver prices fell. COMEX gold and silver prices are provided. US 10 - year treasury bond yields and the US dollar index are given. The Fed is expected to expand its balance sheet, and silver demand in India is strong [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the Fed's indication of future easing policies, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips, and the reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver are provided [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: The US dollar index reached 100, and copper prices continued to correct. LME copper inventory increased, and domestic spot trading showed different situations. The domestic copper spot import loss was about 700 yuan/ton [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although sentiment is under pressure, it is expected to be supported. The copper supply is expected to be marginally tight, providing strong support for copper prices. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai copper and LME copper are provided [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The decline in precious metals and copper prices led to a decline in aluminum price optimism. LME aluminum and Shanghai aluminum prices fell. Aluminum inventories showed different trends, and the spot was at a discount to the futures [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The increase in electrolytic aluminum production and the improvement in trade and inventory conditions are expected to support aluminum prices. Short - term support levels are to be noted [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Shanghai zinc index rose slightly, and LME zinc prices also increased. Zinc inventories and basis data are provided [15][16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic zinc mine inventory declined, and zinc production decreased. Downstream demand was stable, and inventories were slowly increasing. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will be strong in the short - term, but the upside space is limited [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: Shanghai lead index fell slightly, and LME lead prices decreased. Lead inventories and basis data are provided [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lead ore inventory declined, and lead production showed different trends. Downstream demand was weak, and inventories were at a low level. It is expected that Shanghai lead will be strong in the short - term [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices oscillated and fell. Spot prices and cost data are provided [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Refined nickel inventory pressure is significant, and nickel prices are dragged down. In the long - term, nickel prices may be supported. Short - term observation is recommended, and long positions can be considered at appropriate prices [21]. Tin - **Market Information**: Shanghai tin prices fell. Tin inventories increased, and supply was affected by raw material shortages. Demand from emerging fields provided support [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term tin supply - demand is in a tight balance, and prices are expected to oscillate. It is recommended to go long on dips, and the reference operating ranges are provided [24]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The lithium carbonate spot index and futures prices fell. The production and sales of new energy vehicles increased [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals lack continuous positive factors. After a correction, the market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to ore prices and production schedules [26]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index fell, and trading volume increased. Basis, overseas prices, and inventory data are provided [27][28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Ore prices may be under pressure after the rainy season. Alumina production capacity is in excess, but the current price is close to the cost line. Short - term observation is recommended, and the reference operating range is provided [29]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices fell, and trading volume increased. Spot prices and raw material prices are provided [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of stainless steel spot is relatively firm, but the demand is expected to be weak in the short - term, and the price is expected to continue to be weak [30]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Casting aluminum alloy prices fell, and trading volume decreased. Inventory data are provided [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of casting aluminum alloy has strong support, and supply is tight. Prices are expected to be strongly supported [32]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices fell. Futures and spot prices, as well as inventory and trading volume data, are provided [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The commodity market was weak, and steel prices oscillated weakly. Although demand is in the off - season, it may recover in the future with policy implementation and macro - environment changes [35]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices fell, and trading volume increased. Spot prices and basis data are provided [36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overseas iron ore shipments decreased, and demand weakened. Inventory pressure increased. There is a risk of a phased decline in ore prices [37]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass Market Information**: Glass prices rose, and inventory decreased. Trading volume data are provided [38]. - **Glass Strategy Viewpoint**: Market sentiment was boosted, but the fundamentals are weak. The impact of policies and production cuts needs to be observed [39]. - **Soda Ash Market Information**: Soda ash prices fell, and inventory decreased. Trading volume data are provided [40]. - **Soda Ash Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry's high - capacity utilization rate and weak demand lead to weak price trends. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [41]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and silicon iron prices fell. Spot prices and basis data are provided [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Macro events did not provide strong support for the market. The black sector's rebound was adjusted. Manganese silicon and silicon iron are likely to follow the black sector's trend [43][44][45]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices fell, and trading volume increased. Spot prices and basis data are provided [46]. - **Industrial Silicon Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of industrial silicon is under pressure, and demand is weakening. Prices are expected to be weak in the short - term, but cost support exists [47]. - **Polysilicon Market Information**: Polysilicon prices fell, and trading volume decreased. Spot prices and basis data are provided [48][49]. - **Polysilicon Strategy Viewpoint**: Polysilicon production is expected to decline, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally. Attention should be paid to platform company progress [50]. Energy Chemicals Category Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices were weakly sorted. There were different views on the rise and fall of rubber prices. Tire production and inventory data, as well as spot prices, are provided [52][53][54][55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Rubber prices are near the previous low. Short - term long trading with a stop - loss set is recommended, and partial hedging positions can be established [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices fell. Inventory data are provided [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although geopolitical premiums have disappeared, oil prices should not be overly shorted in the short - term. A range strategy is maintained, and short - term observation is recommended [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices fell, and basis data are provided [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Port prices fell, and inventory was high. Supply increased, and demand weakened. Observation is recommended [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices showed different trends in different regions, and basis data are provided [61][62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Urea supply and demand increased, but the market is in a relatively loose pattern. Observation is recommended [63]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene and styrene prices showed different trends. Supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Pure benzene and styrene prices may stop falling. The BZN spread has room for upward repair [65]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices fell, and cost, supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are poor, with strong supply and weak demand. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies [67][68]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices fell, and cost, supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply is high, and inventory is expected to increase. It is recommended to short on rallies [70]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose, and cost, supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [71]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply is expected to decrease, and demand is expected to be stable. Attention should be paid to PTA processing fee repair opportunities [72]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices rose, and cost, supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [73][74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: p - Xylene supply is high, and demand is weak. PXN is expected to be under pressure in November. Observation is recommended [75]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices fell, and supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PE prices are expected to oscillate at a low level. The impact of cost and supply - demand factors needs to be considered [77]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices fell, and supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PP prices are affected by cost and supply - demand factors. The market is in a weak pattern, and short - term observation is recommended [79][80]. Agricultural Products Category Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices continued to fall, and supply and demand factors are provided [82]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short pigs on rallies. Cautious investors can use reverse - spread positions [83]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable, and supply and demand factors are provided [84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Egg prices are expected to be strong in the short - term. Observation or short - term trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to upper - level pressure [85]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybean prices fell, and domestic soybean and bean meal supply, demand, and cost data are provided [86][87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Bean meal prices are expected to rise in the short - term and be shorted on rebounds in the medium - term [88]. Oils - **Market Information**: Malaysian palm oil production and export data are provided. Domestic oil consumption is expected to enter the peak season, and inventory is expected to decrease seasonally [89]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Palm oil prices are expected to be oscillating weakly before exports improve. A change in strategy can be considered if production declines [90]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices oscillated, and Brazilian sugar production data are provided [91][92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short sugar after a rebound due to strong supply and weak external market trends [93]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices oscillated, and supply, demand, and price data are provided [94]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Cotton prices are expected to continue to oscillate due to weak fundamentals [95].

Group 1 - Nvidia's market value dropped by approximately $20.14 billion (about 1.4378 trillion RMB) overnight, with its stock price falling over 4% [2] - Major technology stocks, including Nvidia and Intel, experienced declines, contributing to a mixed performance in the U.S. stock indices [2] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 1.95%, with notable declines in popular stocks such as NIO and Baidu, which dropped over 5% and 4% respectively [4][6] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that monetary policy decisions will be made based on evolving economic conditions rather than a predetermined path [6] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from July's prediction, while maintaining the 2026 growth rate at 3.1% [6] - Market expectations indicate a 97.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, following a previous cut announced on September 17 [7]

今日Ultima Markets为您带来了 2025年11月4日的黄金深入分析 黄金/美元短期技术展望 现货黄金周一在$4,000附近交易，受限于一个相对狭窄的日内区间。金融市场在美国政府持续停摆和随之而来的数据缺乏中，努力寻找新的催化剂。 投资者继续对美联储（Fed）最新的货币政策公告进行定价，该公告因主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔对12月降息的怀疑而显得鹰派。因此，美元（USD）对大多数主 要货币保持坚挺，而股市则承压，撰写时美国股指表现混合。 私人数据显示，美国的制造业产出在十月份相当稳定。一方面，标普全球制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）上调至52.5，超过预期的52.2。另一方面，ISM 制造业PMI在同一时期从9月份的49.1降至48.7，也低于预期的49.5。 总体而言，每个月的第一周通常是美国就业相关数据的高峰期，但由于联邦停摆，这次大部分数据不会发布。私人ADP就业变动调查将照常发布，但在接 下来的几天内不应期待其他数据。 此外，投资者将关注澳大利亚储备银行（RBA），预计将在周二早些时候宣布其货币政策决定。市场普遍预期RBA将维持利率不变，这对金融市场的影 响有限。相反，政策制定者接下来计划的任何暗示可能 ...

比特币从周初的约 11.2 万美元一路下跌至 10.5 万美元附近，24 小时内蒸发数百亿美元市值，引发超过十亿美元的强制平仓潮。社交媒体上一片恐慌：这次 是不是牛市终结、熊市开幕？今天这篇文章，把"为什么跌"与"是否转熊"这两个问题讲透。 这轮暴跌最直接的导火索，是杠杆多头被集体清算。 据主流交易所数据，比特币从 112,000 美元跌至 105,000 美元过程中，约有 11 亿美元的期货合约被强平，其中 9 成是多头仓位。当大量多头被爆仓时，市场 被动抛售触发连锁反应，卖压放大，价格又进一步下跌，形成了"踩踏效应"。 简单说，这并不是某个黑天鹅事件造成的暴跌，而是市场自身杠杆过高、泡沫过满的一次"自动清算"。 从宏观看，本轮下跌背后是美联储态度的微妙变化。 最近几位美联储官员释放偏鹰信号，让市场对年底降息的预期快速降温。风险资产普遍回调，科技股与加密货币首当其冲。 利率高企意味着流动性收紧，投资者倾向把资金转回债券或现金等稳健资产，加密市场的"热钱"自然被抽走。 换句话说，这次暴跌并非加密圈内部问题，而是一次全球资金避险行为的外溢反应。 这是所有人最关心的问题。 要回答它，得分时间维度来看： 目前这些信 ...

Group 1 - The current spot gold price is trading around $3981.04, with a recent drop of 0.49% and a trading range between $4004.99 and $3975.59, indicating a short-term sideways trend [1] - Federal Reserve policymakers are signaling caution regarding future interest rate paths amid a government shutdown and missing key economic data, with a focus on preventing inflation rebound risks [2][3] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee highlighted persistent high inflation, with a core inflation rate annualized at 3.6%, and service prices nearing 4%, exceeding the Fed's 2% target [2] Group 2 - The Fed officials emphasize data dependency in their decision-making, with Cook noting the current policy remains moderately restrictive while balancing inflation control and labor market risks [3] - Daly stated that the two rate cuts earlier in the year have provided economic support, but reiterated that inflation must return to target levels [3] - The uncertainty surrounding the release of key employment data due to the government shutdown increases the likelihood of maintaining current interest rates in December [3] Group 3 - Recent gold trading has shown a high volatility pattern, with the market currently in an adjustment phase, suggesting that both long and short positions can yield profits if managed correctly [4] - The analysis indicates a bearish outlook for gold, with resistance at the 4022 MA10 level, and a recommendation to maintain short positions until a clear breakout occurs [4] - Short-term indicators suggest a bearish trend, with a focus on entering short positions around $4005, while monitoring the strength of the European session for potential trading signals [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The divergence within the Fed has increased, making the December interest rate cut more uncertain. With the easing of Sino - US relations, the safe - haven sentiment has cooled significantly, and gold may迎来 a major cycle inflection point. It is expected to be in a high - level shock in the medium term [1]. - For rubber, although the overall shipment pressure remains high in November and the utilization rate of production capacity is restricted, the low inventory and low warehouse receipts in China provide medium - term support, and the downward space of rubber prices may be limited [2]. - Steel prices may fluctuate weakly in the short term due to the digestion of macro - positive news, the low - level operation of the real estate market, the end of the traditional peak demand season, and the expected reduction of blast furnace hot metal production [4]. - The coke spot market is running strongly. Although the coking profit is under pressure and the steel mill's production is restricted, the hot metal is expected to rebound after a short - term decline, and the third round of price increase has started [5]. - For silicon iron, the high cost and high steel output support the price, but the loose supply - demand relationship restricts the upward space [6]. - The economic downward pressure increases, and the bond market is expected to be slightly bullish in the medium term due to factors such as the need for counter - cyclical adjustment and the possible open - market operation of government bonds [6]. - For silver, the short - term is in a shock, and it is still bullish in the long term due to the increasing economic downward pressure in the US and the increasing demand for counter - cyclical interest rate cuts [7]. - For rapeseed meal, the rigid shortage of supply and low inventory of coastal oil mills reduce the risk of price decline, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [8]. - Palm oil is expected to run weakly in the short term due to the significant increase in Malaysian palm oil production in October and the expected inventory accumulation [8]. - The price of live pigs is expected to adjust weakly in the near future due to the increase in supply and insufficient demand growth [9]. - Methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure at 2160, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - PX should be treated with a shock perspective. Although the load of Asian and domestic PX will remain at a relatively high level and the PXN processing fee is under pressure, the stable crude oil provides support for the lower price [11]. - Crude oil prices have stabilized, but there is still supply pressure in the remaining period of the year, and the price may be in a shock state. Only when the geopolitical conflict intensifies can the price center rise [13]. - Polypropylene is expected to run in a shock in the short term, with the upper pressure at 6590, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [13]. - Soda ash is expected to run in a shock in the short term, with the upper pressure at 1205, and it is recommended to wait and see [14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Gold**: The divergence within the Fed makes the December interest rate cut uncertain. Sino - US relations ease, and gold may迎来 a major cycle inflection point. It is expected to be in a high - level shock in the medium term [1]. - **Silver**: The US economic downward pressure increases, which is bearish for silver in the short term, but the increasing demand for counter - cyclical interest rate cuts is bullish in the long term. It is in a shock - bullish state with limited downward space [7]. - **Steel (including rebar)**: Steel prices may fluctuate weakly in the short term due to factors such as the digestion of macro - positive news, the low - level operation of the real estate market, and the expected reduction of blast furnace hot metal production [4]. - **Coke**: The coke spot market is running strongly. The third round of price increase has started, and the futures price is expected to be stable [5]. - **Silicon Iron**: The high cost and high steel output support the price, but the loose supply - demand relationship restricts the upward space [6]. Agricultural Products - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rigid shortage of supply and low inventory of coastal oil mills reduce the risk of price decline. It is recommended to go long at low prices and pay attention to Sino - Canadian trade policies [8]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil production increased significantly in October, and it is expected to accumulate inventory. The domestic market is weak in the short term [8]. - **Live Pigs**: The price is expected to adjust weakly in the near future due to the increase in supply and insufficient demand growth [9]. Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: The overall shipment pressure is high in November, but the low inventory in China provides medium - term support, and the downward space of rubber prices may be limited [2]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure at 2160, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **PX**: It should be treated with a shock perspective. The high load of Asian and domestic PX and the pressure on PXN processing fees coexist with the support from stable crude oil [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The price has stabilized, but there is still supply pressure in the remaining period of the year, and it may be in a shock state [13]. - **Polypropylene**: It is expected to run in a shock in the short term, with the upper pressure at 6590, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [13]. - **Soda Ash**: It is expected to run in a shock in the short term, with the upper pressure at 1205, and it is recommended to wait and see [14]. Bonds - **Long - term Treasury Bonds**: The economic downward pressure increases, and the bond market is expected to be slightly bullish in the medium term due to factors such as the need for counter - cyclical adjustment and the possible open - market operation of government bonds [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Views of the Report - The US manufacturing sector has been in decline for eight consecutive months, with the manufacturing PMI at 48.7, indicating continued weakness in the real - economy and putting pressure on the US economy, which may require a loose monetary policy. The dollar index is expected to remain volatile [3][19][21]. - Gold prices are oscillating around $4000. With the implementation of domestic tax policies, the purchase cost of jewelry and gold bars has increased. Multiple Fed officials' statements suggest that a December rate cut is not the baseline scenario, and short - term gold prices lack direct positive factors and are in a correction trend [2][15]. - The stock market showed a small - volume increase. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.55% to 3976.52 points. The market is expected to continue to oscillate around 4000 points on the Shanghai Composite Index [23][24]. - In the commodity market, different products have different trends. For example, the supply - demand situation of agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy chemicals varies, and investment suggestions are provided accordingly [4][5][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 10 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.1. Fed officials have different views on interest - rate policies. Gold prices are oscillating around $4000, and short - term gold prices face a risk of decline [13][15][16]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US government shutdown is approaching the longest record in history, and Peru has severed diplomatic relations with Mexico. The US manufacturing activity has been in decline for eight consecutive months, and the dollar index is expected to remain volatile [17][19][22]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market had a small - volume increase. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.55% to 3976.52 points. The Ministry of Finance has established a new Debt Management Department. The market is expected to continue to oscillate around 4000 points on the Shanghai Composite Index, and it is recommended to allocate long positions in stock indices evenly [23][24][25]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US 10 - month ISM manufacturing PMI has been in decline for eight consecutive months. Fed officials have different stances on a December rate cut. The US economy is in a downward trend, and the technology sector is strong, supporting the index to oscillate at a high level. Short - term, the market is expected to oscillate at a high level, and a bullish approach is recommended [26][28][29]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's October S&P manufacturing PMI was 50.6, showing a slowdown in the expansion. The central bank conducted a 783 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse - repurchase operation. The bond market is expected to oscillate with a slightly bullish trend, but the upward space is limited [30][31][32]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean sowing progress is behind schedule. The domestic soybean - meal inventory is sufficient, and the possibility of a supply gap in China is greatly reduced with the increase in US soybean imports. It is not recommended to blindly go long on soybean meal, and future attention should be paid to the actual situation of US soybean imports and the weather in Brazilian production areas [4][33][35]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Indian sugar mills are applying for opening, and the new sugar in Yunnan has a listed price. The market has optimistic expectations for the new - season sugar production in India and Thailand. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate in the short term, and a long position in the 1 - 5 contract spread can be held [36][38][39]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - Red dates in Xinjiang are starting to be harvested. The futures price of the main contract has a small increase. The new - season red - date production is uncertain, and it is recommended to wait and see [40][41]. 2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Shijiazhuang has issued a heavy - pollution weather orange warning and launched a level - II emergency response. Steel prices are oscillating weakly, and it is recommended to adopt an oscillating approach [42][44][45]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The Canadian prime minister said that China would not immediately cancel tariffs on Canadian goods. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia has reached a two - year high. The oil market showed a differentiated trend, and corresponding investment suggestions are provided for rapeseed oil and palm oil [46][47][48]. 2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in northern ports is stable. The coal price is expected to be stable and slightly bullish in the short term, and attention should be paid to winter weather changes and November long - term contract policies [49]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The profit of domestic importers of cassava starch has increased. It is recommended to conduct band trading [50]. 2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - An Australian iron - ore project has made new progress. The iron - ore price is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to maintain a weakly oscillating approach [51][52]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn prices are rising. It is recommended to go short lightly at high prices and pay attention to wheat auction policies [53][54]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - The supply surplus of alumina has narrowed. It is recommended to wait and see [55][56]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead inventory has decreased, and the domestic lead - ingot social inventory has stopped falling and started to rise. Short - term, lead prices may remain strong, but chasing long positions requires caution [58]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - A zinc - mining project has started construction. The zinc price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and corresponding investment strategies are provided [60][61]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Global investors are calling for the establishment of an international mineral institution. Chile's copper production has rebounded. Copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and it is recommended to lay out long positions at low prices [62][63][65]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium - carbonate project in Hunan has started, and the output of an Argentine lithium project has tripled. Lithium - carbonate prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices in the medium term [66][68][69]. 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - A nickel - producing company's output has increased. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate within a narrow range, and corresponding investment suggestions are provided [70][71][73]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Brazil's oil production has increased. Oil prices lack the power to rebound in the short term [74][75]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - Asphalt inventories in factories and social warehouses have decreased. Asphalt prices are expected to remain weak in the short term [76][77]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - The spot price of methanol in Taicang has dropped significantly. It is recommended to hold short positions and add short positions on rebounds [78][79]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has fluctuated. The supply of caustic soda is relatively loose in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether supply will decrease due to profit compression [80][81]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The operating rate of compound fertilizers has increased. The urea market is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the release rhythm of reserve and speculative demand in the medium term [82][83]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp has adjusted slightly upwards. The pulp price is expected to have limited upward space [84][85]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of pure benzene in East China has increased, and the inventory of styrene in East China has decreased. The valuation of the pure - benzene industry chain is restricted, and attention should be paid to the inventory increase in East China's pure - benzene main port [88][89]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Soda - ash manufacturers' inventories have decreased slightly. The downward space of the soda - ash price in the short term depends on coal - price fluctuations and new - capacity launches, and a bearish approach is recommended in the medium term [90]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Shahe has increased slightly. The glass price is expected to have large fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [91][92]. 2.25 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The US will suspend special port fees and additional tariffs for one year. The SCFIS (European route) has declined. The container - freight - rate market is expected to have large fluctuations, and it is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities after a callback [93][94].