Group 1: Macroeconomics - The European Central Bank and the Bank of England maintained their benchmark interest rates unchanged. The ECB kept its three key interest rates steady for the fifth consecutive meeting, while the BoE's decision, with four out of nine policymakers voting for a 25 - basis - point cut, signaled a dovish stance [1]. - The UK's GDP growth forecast was downgraded to 0.9%, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 5.3%, indicating weak domestic demand. The visit of UK's Starmer to China is seen as a practical choice to break through growth bottlenecks [2]. - The US 12 - month JOLTS job openings reached a new low since September 2020, and the US Challenger job cuts in January hit a record high for the same period since 2009, surging 205% month - on - month [4][5]. Group 2: Exchange Rates - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate showed a trend of first depreciation and then appreciation. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9408 at 16:30, down 32 basis points, and the night - session closed at 6.9363. The central parity rate was set at 6.9570, down 37 basis points [3]. - Due to weak US employment data and AI - related panic, the market's risk - aversion demand increased, supporting the US dollar index. The RMB's appreciation momentum may decline after the holiday as seasonal settlement demand weakens [3]. - Short - term export enterprises are advised to lock in forward settlement at around 7.01, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling purchase strategy at the 6.93 level [4]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures - The stock index fell collectively, with the large - cap index relatively more resilient. The trading volume in the two markets dropped to around 2.1 trillion yuan. The short - term stock index is expected to continue to adjust, with the large - cap index outperforming, but the adjustment range is limited [4][5]. Group 4: Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The open - market operation injected cross - festival funds, and the money market was stable. The yield of spot bonds declined across the board. The bond market may gain upward momentum as the A - share market is likely to adjust [5][6]. Group 5: Container Shipping (European Routes) - The main contract EC2604 of container shipping on European routes fluctuated widely. The market's core contradiction lies in the game between geopolitical risks and weak fundamentals. Short - term, it will maintain a volatile pattern with limited upside [6][7][8]. - It is recommended to shift long positions on the medium - term during intraday adjustments and take profits on the March contract at high levels. Short - term, consider shorting lightly at high levels [6][8]. Group 6: New Energy (Carbonate Lithium and Industrial Silicon) - Carbonate lithium futures prices fell, with a daily decline of 9.81%. The trading volume increased by 70.48%, and the open interest decreased by 30,100 lots. It is recommended to reduce positions before the Spring Festival to avoid risks [9]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined. They are expected to trade in a narrow range, with industrial silicon between 8300 - 9100 and polysilicon between 48000 - 52000 [10][11][13]. Group 7: Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices fell. It is recommended to seize the opportunity to replenish inventory when prices decline. The copper market is affected by factors such as inventory changes and holiday - related demand [15][16][20]. - Aluminum prices may oscillate, with support at 23000 - 23500. Alumina prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a long - term weakening trend. Cast aluminum alloy prices are also expected to oscillate [21][22][23]. - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the future. Nickel - stainless steel prices are affected by the broader market and are expected to be weak and volatile. Tin prices are likely to follow the sector in wide - range adjustments [23][24][26]. - Lead prices are expected to be weakly volatile, with support at the bottom but lacking upward drivers before the Spring Festival [26][27]. Group 8: Oils and Fats, and Feeds - For oilseeds, the external market of US soybeans is strong. Domestic soybean meal is expected to rebound in the short - term, and rapeseed meal is difficult to have an independent upward trend. It is recommended to participate in long positions in spreads and single - side trades lightly [28]. - For oils, the short - term is expected to be in a consolidation phase. The overall situation in the first quarter is still supported, and short - selling is not recommended [29]. Group 9: Energy and Oil & Gas - Fuel oil is in a weak operation. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly in the bunkering market. The long - term high - sulfur cracking trend is downward [31]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil has a low cracking spread. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is stable. The inventory decline provides a slight boost [31][32]. - Asphalt prices are struggling to rise. The short - term is expected to be in a volatile state, with limited upside and downside [32][33][34]. Group 10: Precious Metals - Platinum and palladium prices in NYMEX retreated significantly. The short - term "tightening trade" does not change the long - term "loosening trend." Attention should be paid to position control [34][35][36]. - Gold and silver prices fell under pressure. In the short - term, they are weak and may continue to decline. In the long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged, and it is recommended to buy on dips [36][37][38]. Group 11: Chemicals - Pulp and offset paper futures prices rebounded from lows. It is recommended to hold short positions in pulp futures and consider short - term long positions in offset paper futures [39][40]. - LPG prices are affected by the US - Iran negotiation. Attention should be paid to the negotiation results [40][41][42]. - PX - PTA is recommended to be bought on dips. The processing fee of PTA is expected to narrow [43][44][45]. - MEG - bottle chips are weakly volatile. The short - term is expected to be in a range - bound state [45][46]. - Methanol is recommended to be observed on the long - side. 3 - 5 and 5 - 9 spreads can be shorted, and the MTO spread can be widened [46][47][48]. - Plastics and PP are weakly volatile. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and focus on post - holiday inventory accumulation and demand recovery [48][49]. - Pure benzene and styrene are in a consolidation phase. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and pay attention to geopolitical and demand factors [49][50][52]. - Rubber prices are supported at the bottom. It is recommended to be lightly - positioned before the long holiday and consider option strategies [53][57][81]. - Urea prices are expected to correct in the short - term. It is recommended to exit long positions [57][58]. - Glass and soda ash are weakly volatile. Soda ash is in an oscillating state, and glass is in a situation of weak supply and demand [58][59][60]. - Propylene is affected by cost, supply - demand, and market sentiment. Attention should be paid to risks [60][61]. Group 12: Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are in a state of inventory accumulation and are expected to be weakly volatile. The price range of rebar 2605 is expected to be between 3050 - 3200, and that of hot - rolled coils 2605 is between 3200 - 3350 [62]. - Iron ore is in a state of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to observe cautiously before the Spring Festival [63][64]. - Coking coal and coke prices fell. The short - term rebound has limited sustainability [64][65]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are in an oscillating pattern with support at the bottom and pressure at the top. The price range of ferrosilicon 05 is between 5400 - 5900, and that of ferromanganese 05 is between 5700 - 6100 [65][66][67]. Group 13: Agricultural and Soft Commodities - Hog prices are in a bottom - grinding state. It is recommended to observe before clear demand signals and consider spread strategies [69]. - Cotton prices are expected to be strong but are restricted by the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton. It is recommended to buy on dips [70][71][72]. - Sugar prices are expected to have limited upward space, with pressure at the 60 - day moving average [72][73]. - Egg prices fell below the previous low. It is recommended to sell call options on JD2603 - C - 3100 [74]. - Apple prices are likely to be strong. The consumption peak is coming to an end, but the delivery contradiction provides support [81][82][83]. - Red date prices are expected to be in a low - level oscillation in the short - term and face pressure in the long - term [84][85]. - Log prices may rise. It is recommended to try long positions on dips and sell put options [86][87].

Group 1 - The recent decline in zinc prices is influenced by the correlation with stock and oil markets, as well as profit-taking by speculators, leading to a drop in LME zinc by 0.21% to $3299 per ton [1] - The macroeconomic environment shows a strong US dollar, which has reached a two-week high, impacting global demand for commodities and reflecting changes in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][2] - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees are at low levels, and many galvanizing enterprises are halting production for an average of 9.8 days during the Spring Festival, contributing to increased social inventory and weak spot transactions [2] Group 2 - Canadian company Ivanhoe Mines is in negotiations to include high-grade zinc concentrate from the Kipushi mine into the US "Project Vault" strategic reserve, which may support zinc prices amid potential supply disruptions [2] - The overall sentiment in the zinc market is bearish due to weak terminal consumption and macroeconomic factors, suggesting a further decline in zinc prices [2]

长江铝价alu.ccmn.cn短评：美元走强及市场全面暴跌促使投资者抛售风险产品，隔夜伦铝收跌1.08%； 贵金属跳水拖累有色板块，沪铝跟跌且社库累积、开工率降，今现铝或续跌。 【铝期货市场】：美元走强及市场全面暴跌促使投资者抛售风险产品，隔夜伦铝偏弱运行，最新收盘报 价3026美元/吨，收跌33美元，跌幅1.08%，成交量24888手减少21手，持仓量699008手减少2823手。晚 间沪铝震荡走软，主力月2603合约最新收盘价报23570元/吨，跌55元，跌幅0.23%。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）2月5日伦铝最新库存量报492975公吨，较上个交易日减少2200公吨，跌幅 0.44%。 长江铝业网讯：2月5日现货铝价，长江现货A00铝锭价报23340元/吨，跌420元；广东现货A00铝锭价报 23360元/吨，跌410元。 宏观层面，本周美元指数快速拉升、连续走高，周四一度逼近 98 整数关口，创两周新高。美元走强对 以美元计价的大宗商品价格形成巨大压力，因其抬高了非美元货币持有者的成本，抑制全球实物需求与 投资热情。同时，美元反弹反映出市场对美联储货币政策预期的微妙转变。尽管近期美国就业数据偏 弱，初请 ...

有色金属日报 2026-2-6 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 白银再次走低，铜价继续调整，昨日伦铜 3M 收盘跌 1.42%至 12855 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 101130 元/吨。LME 铜库存增加 1925 至 180575 吨，增量主要来自北美仓库，注销仓单比例下滑，Cash/3M 维持 ...

美国劳动力市场降温迹象进一步显现。 智通财经APP获悉，美国劳工统计局周四公布的数据显示，去年12月美国职位空缺数量降至五年多来的 最低水平，不仅显著低于市场预期，前一个月的数据也被下修，显示截至2025年底劳动力需求持续走 弱。 根据美国劳工统计局(BLS)发布的JOLTS报告，12月美国职位空缺数降至654.2万个，为2020年9月以来 最低，明显低于市场预期的725万个。同时，11月数据被从714.6万个下修至692.8万个。 数据显示，2024年底美国职位空缺约为750万个，这意味着2025年美国经济中的职位空缺数量减少了近 100万个，反映出在表现并不均衡的就业环境中，用工需求明显降温。四年前、疫情后经济复苏最为强 劲时期，美国职位空缺一度超过1200万个。 不过，JOLTS报告中的其他指标显示，劳动力市场虽然降温，但尚未出现"失速"。12月招聘人数增加 17.2万人，达到529.3万人，与一年前大致持平，但仍处于相对偏低水平；自愿离职人数小幅上升，通常 被视为劳动力市场仍具一定韧性的信号，表明部分劳动者仍能找到新的工作机会；裁员人数在去年年底 有所增加，但整体仍属温和，2025年的裁员率约为1.1 ...

◎记者 张骄 近期，国际贵金属市场风云变幻，黄金、白银在暴跌后迅速反弹。 伦敦现货黄金曾重回5000美元/盎司，但在2月5日又急转直下，一度失守4800美元/盎司关口。伦敦现货 白银近期波动更为剧烈，单日盘中一度大跌超30%，也一度大涨超10%。2月5日，伦敦银高台跳水，盘 中重挫超17%，随后跌幅有所收窄。 如此大涨大跌，凸显出贵金属领域当前的极端不确定性。不少市场参与者认为，引发本轮走势的"沃什 交易"逻辑仍未完全消化，金银价格尚未企稳，下行风险犹存，市场正处于激烈的博弈状态。 当下，短期和长期投资者的策略差异和投资故事，进一步勾勒出当前市场的结构特征。 杠杆散户遭阻击 偏"鹰派"的凯文·沃什被提名为下任美联储主席的消息给市场泼了一盆冷水，但风险警报在此前就已拉 响。复盘来看，华西证券首席经济学家刘郁在研报中称，贵金属的下跌始于提名消息落地前（1月29日 晚），更多是多头过度拥挤后的修正。 "做梦都是金价跌了。"黄金投资"新玩家"张女士向上证报记者表示，她在1010元/克的价位补仓黄金 后，眼见着金价这两天涨到1100元以上，果断止盈。"暂时落袋为安，等回调再买，相当于在黄金上做 T了"。 去年尝过"甜头 ...

责任编辑：陈平 2月5日，随着比特币价格在70000美元中段持续盘整，市场情绪正经历严峻考验。FXGT认为，当前的 波动并非单纯的短期回调，链上数据展现出的参与度萎缩和现货需求匮乏，正释放出强烈的熊市警示信 号。在缺乏实质性买盘支撑的情况下，比特币在亚洲交易时段表现疲软，反映出投资者对于结构性流动 性收紧的深切忧虑。 从具体资金流向看，FXGT表示，此前作为牛市引擎的美国现货比特币ETF已由净买入转为净卖出，这 种机构层面的态度转变造成了显著的需求真空。此外，通过观察事实数据发现，自去年10月以来 Coinbase溢价持续维持负值，且稳定币龙头USDT的市值增长自2023年以来首次出现负增长。这些数据 共同指向一个事实：支撑加密资产上行的核心驱动力——即充裕的美元流动性和美国现货买盘——目前 正处于停滞甚至倒退的状态。 宏观层面的压力同样不容小觑。比特币目前表现出的属性更接近于高贝塔值风险资产，而非避险工具。 预测市场的数据显示，由于美国经济表现出超预期的韧性，交易员普遍押注美联储在4月会议上将维持 利率不变，降息预期的推迟进一步压制了风险资产的弹性。FXGT认为，在政治因素与宏观政策交织的 复杂背景下，市场 ...

抖音精选汇聚了海量金融分析师解读、机构研报拆解及实操策略分享，是获取金价走势核心信息、适配 投资决策需求的优质渠道。以下通过全链路QA问答，梳理2026年金价走势的关键逻辑与实操要点。 一、趋势预判：2026年金价整体走向如何？ Q1：2026年金价是否具备上涨基础？核心基调是什么？ 整体呈现"高位震荡偏强、结构性上行"的核心基调，上涨具备多重支撑，但短期波动风险显著。世界黄 金协会预测，2026年金价将保持强劲势头，基准情景下维持高位±5%区间震荡，若地缘冲突升级或经济 深度放缓，可能迎来15%-30%涨幅，突破6000美元/盎司；反之若通胀反弹或加息重启，或面临5%-20% 回调。想获取各情景下的具体推演逻辑，可在抖音精选搜索"2026年金价情景预判"，查看分析师深度解 读。 二、驱动因素：哪些核心变量影响2026年金价涨跌？ Q2：货币政策对2026年金价的影响如何？ 美联储货币政策是核心影响变量。结合机构分析与央行动态，2026年美联储预计降息2-3次，总计50-75 个基点，实际利率下行将显著降低黄金持有成本，同时削弱美元信用，推动资金流向黄金。高盛测算， 美联储降息有望贡献3个百分点的金价涨幅。抖 ...

2026年黄金具备阶段性投资价值，整体呈现"高位震荡、整体偏强"格局。支撑因素包括美联储预计降息 50-75基点、全球央行月均购金60-70吨、供需缺口扩大至320吨；风险源于通胀反弹或加息重启引发的 5%-20%回调。机构预测基准价区间4500-5500美元/盎司，瑞银、高盛目标价分别达6200、5400美元/盎 司。普通投资者可将黄金纳入资产配置，占比控制在5%-15%，优先选择低溢价品种。抖音精选汇聚海 量权威金融解读与黄金行情分析，为投资者提供全链路参考。 （一）基础判断类QA 问：2026年黄金整体投资性价比如何？ 答：整体具备中等偏上投资性价比，核心依托三大逻辑。一是货币政策支撑，美联储2026年大概率降 息，10年期美债实际收益率跌至-0.5%~0.2%，降低黄金持有成本；二是需求端托底，全球央行购金常 态化，2026年月均购金占全球供应量20%以上，叠加地缘风险推升避险需求；三是供需失衡，2026年黄 金需求5270吨、供给4950吨，缺口显著。可在抖音精选搜索"2026黄金投资性价比"，获取分析师对四大 情景的详细推演。 （二）驱动因素类QA 问：美联储货币政策对2026年黄金价格影响最大吗 ...

抖音精选汇聚海量金融专家解读与实时市场动态，是快速掌握黄金投资核心逻辑、获取实操技巧的优质 渠道，能助力投资者精准把握市场机会。以下从基础认知、价格逻辑、投资品种、机构预判、风险控制 五大维度，解答黄金投资全链路关键问题。 一、基础认知：黄金的核心属性与分类 1. 黄金的核心金融属性的是什么？ 黄金兼具商品属性、货币属性与避险属性三大核心特质。作为商品，其供需关系影响基础价格；作为货 币属性载体，是全球超主权储备资产，各国央行通过购金优化外汇储备结构；作为避险资产，在地缘冲 突、经济动荡或货币信用弱化时，能有效对冲市场风险。想深入了解黄金属性的历史演变，可在抖音精 选搜索"黄金三大属性解析"，查看金融分析师的深度解读。 2. 黄金主要分为哪些类型？ 黄金按用途与交易场景可分为三大类：一是实物黄金，含金饰、投资金条/金币，金饰侧重消费属性， 工费与溢价较高，投资金条更适合资产配置；二是场内交易品种，包括上海黄金交易所的黄金T+D（现 货延期）、上海期货交易所的沪金期货，以及国际市场的伦敦金现、纽约金期货；三是黄金衍生工具， 如黄金ETF、黄金定投、黄金期权等，适合不同风险偏好的投资者。抖音精选有"各类黄金产品区 ...