Core Insights - The overall inflation data for January in the U.S. is described as "moderate," with the CPI year-on-year falling to 2.4%, below expectations, and the core CPI dropping to 2.5%, marking the lowest level since 2021 [1][2] - The monthly core inflation remains resilient, driven by rising service prices, despite some declines in certain goods and services [3][4] Inflation Data Summary - The January CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3%, and the year-on-year rate slowed from 2.7% in December to 2.4%, also below the anticipated 2.5% [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% month-on-month, matching expectations and slightly higher than the previous value of 0.2%, with a year-on-year rate of 2.5%, down from 2.6% in December [2] Market Reactions - Following the data release, U.S. stock futures saw a short-term increase, with the Nasdaq futures up by 0.13%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.12%, and Dow futures up by 0.06%. The dollar index experienced a slight decline of 0.03% [3] - Traders are estimating a 50% probability for a third interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year [3] Service and Goods Price Dynamics - The rise in core inflation for January was primarily driven by service-related price increases, including airfares, personal care, entertainment, healthcare, and communication [3] - Conversely, prices for certain goods and services, such as used cars and trucks, household items, and auto insurance, decreased in January, offsetting some of the upward pressure from services [4] Federal Reserve Implications - The Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target is mainly based on the PCE price index, and both CPI and PCE remain above this target level. The labor market showed signs of stability, with January employment growth accelerating and the unemployment rate dropping from 4.4% in December to 4.3% [6] - Despite the lower-than-expected inflation readings, the resilience of core inflation and a stable labor market may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates for the time being, with the current benchmark overnight rate set between 3.50% and 3.75% [6] Seasonal Adjustments - It is noteworthy that core CPI often tends to "exceed expectations" in January, with many economists suggesting that seasonal adjustment factors may not fully capture the disturbances caused by one-time price increases at the beginning of the year [7]

Group 1 - The international gold price experienced a decline due to strong U.S. labor market data, which dampened market expectations for recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Current spot gold prices have dropped to approximately $5059.87 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of about 0.4%, influenced by the unexpected strength in the labor market that has raised U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar [1] - Major mining companies such as Barrick Gold and Kinross Gold have also faced declines, with companies like Gold Fields and Westwater Resources seeing stock price drops exceeding 1.2%, indicating cautious market sentiment regarding short-term gold price prospects [1] Group 2 - The current economic landscape is in a critical phase, with geopolitical tensions continuing to support long-term gold prices, while the resilience of the U.S. labor market is prompting a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path [1] - The recent market correction is viewed as a technical adjustment to overly optimistic pricing of policy shifts, with gold mining stocks' correlated declines amplifying bearish market sentiment [2] - Investors are advised to closely monitor upcoming economic data, as the ongoing fluctuations around the $5000 mark for gold prices are expected to persist until interest rate cut expectations are clarified [2]

Group 1 - The current trading price of paper gold is around 1104.34 CNY per gram, with a decline of 1.83% from the previous session, and it has fluctuated between a high of 1124.88 CNY and a low of 1082.57 CNY [1] - The market for paper gold is showing a short-term sideways trend, indicating a lack of strong momentum despite being in a bullish trend [3] - Key support levels for paper gold are identified between 1100-1105 CNY per gram, with a potential test of the 1080 CNY support line if these levels are breached [3] Group 2 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, which would align with pre-pandemic average price levels from 2017 to 2019 [2] - Recent CPI data has consistently fallen below Wall Street expectations, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision to lower benchmark borrowing rates if January's data is weak [2] - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming CPI data release, as it will significantly impact economic trends and Federal Reserve monetary policy adjustments [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the silver futures market is experiencing a price increase, with the Shanghai silver futures closing at 20,626 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a daily increase of 1.88% [1] - The spot price of silver in Shanghai on February 12 was reported at 22,025 yuan per kilogram, which is a premium of 1,399 yuan per kilogram over the futures price [3] - The U.S. retail sales data for December 2025 showed an unexpected zero growth, significantly below the expected increase of 0.4%, indicating weak consumer performance among low-income groups [3] Group 2 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for January increased by 130,000, exceeding market expectations of 70,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025 [4] - Hourly wages increased by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing expectations, but precious metals showed limited volatility, suggesting the market is awaiting clearer signals from the Federal Reserve [4] - The Federal Reserve's current policy stance is described as being close to neutral, with no further rate cuts anticipated if inflation decreases and the labor market remains stable [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing downward pressure, with the Shanghai copper futures closing down 2.24%, maintaining above the 100,000 yuan mark, amid a weak risk appetite globally [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The global copper visible inventory continues to accumulate, putting pressure on copper prices [1] - The recent sell-off in U.S. tech stocks has negatively impacted overseas risk appetite, leading to a general decline in industrial commodities [1] - The upcoming U.S. inflation data is anticipated to influence market assessments of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook [1] Group 2: Inventory and Supply - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) copper warehouse receipts have been increasing, with expectations of a significant rise in weekly inventory [1] - Both LME and COMEX copper inventories have also been rising, contributing to the overall increase in global visible inventory [1] Group 3: Price Strategy and Outlook - According to Everbright Futures, copper price trends are currently correlated with overseas financial markets and precious metals, indicating reliance on financial attributes and market sentiment [1] - The overall outlook is viewed as a fluctuating but slightly bullish market, with a strategy suggested to buy on dips [1] - Due to the upcoming Spring Festival, which may bring geopolitical disturbances in overseas markets, a light position is recommended during the holiday [1]

Core Viewpoint - ANZ Bank predicts that gold prices may reach a new high of $5,800 per ounce in the second quarter due to expected easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, potential escalation of geopolitical tensions, and a further weakening of the US dollar [1] Group 1: Price Forecast - ANZ Bank previously forecasted gold prices at $5,400 per ounce [1] - The new forecast indicates a significant increase in gold prices, reflecting market expectations [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - ANZ Bank anticipates two rate cuts of 25 basis points each, one in March and another in June [1] - These cuts are expected to drive down real interest rates, supporting capital inflows into the gold market [1] Group 3: Investor Behavior - Investors are gradually diversifying their asset allocations and reducing their exposure to the US dollar [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - The A-share market fluctuated and rose on February 12, 2026, with the Wind All A index up 0.46% and a trading volume of 2.16 trillion yuan. The TMT and power equipment sectors led the gains, while the consumer sector continued to decline. The CSI 1000 index rose 0.91%, the CSI 500 index rose 1.17%, the SSE 50 index fell 0.28%, and the SSE 300 index rose 0.12% [1]. - Geopolitical risks during the Spring Festival are one of the important factors affecting the A-share market. The situation between the US and Iran and the victory of right-wing political parties in Japan's elections are worthy of attention. The volatility of precious metals and other non-ferrous metals may increase, and the index volatility may rise if geopolitical conflicts break out during the festival. Since November last year, A-share technology themes have shown an increasing correlation with the US stock market. The new nominee for the Fed chairman has a more "hawkish" monetary policy stance, and the US economic data during the Spring Festival holiday may disturb the equity market [1]. - On February 12, 2026, the 30-year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.03%, the 10-year main contract rose 0.02%, the 5-year main contract rose 0.02%, and the 2-year main contract remained stable. The central bank conducted 400 billion yuan of 14-day and 166.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchases, with a net injection of 448 billion yuan. In the short term, the bond market has insufficient momentum to continue to strengthen, and the pattern of interest rate range fluctuations continues [3]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market showed a mixed performance, with different index movements. Geopolitical risks and US economic data are potential influencing factors, and the market is expected to be volatile [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The central bank's open market operations and the current economic policy environment affect the bond market, which is expected to remain in a range - bound state [3]. 2. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: The IH contract fell 0.27%, the IF contract rose 0.04%, the IC contract rose 1.35%, and the IM contract rose 1.18% on February 12, 2026 compared with the previous day [4]. - **Stock Indexes**: The SSE 50 index fell 0.28%, the SSE 300 index rose 0.12%, the CSI 500 index rose 1.17%, and the CSI 1000 index rose 0.91% on February 12, 2026 compared with the previous day [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The TS contract rose 0.04%, the TF contract rose 0.01%, the T contract rose 0.04%, and the TL contract fell 0.04% on February 12, 2026 compared with the previous day [4]. 3. Market News - The EU announced on February 12, 2026, that it would request the WTO to establish a panel for a dispute case related to standard - essential patent licensing litigation against China. China regrets the EU's decision and will handle the case in accordance with WTO procedures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests [5][6]. 4. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trends of each index futures [8][9][10][11][12]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: There are charts showing the trends of Treasury bond futures main contracts, bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [15][18][19][20]. - **Exchange Rates**: There are charts showing the exchange rate trends of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and other currency pairs [23][24][25][27][28].

Core Viewpoint - In January, domestic policies aimed at stabilizing demand were implemented intensively, leading to significant support for market demand and a strong performance in the commodity market, as evidenced by the rise in the China Securities Commodity Futures Index and the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index [1][5]. Index Performance Analysis - In January, the China Securities Commodity Futures Index rose by 13.57%, while the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index increased by 13.64%, indicating a strong upward trend in the commodity indices with a volatility of 19.71% throughout the month [2]. - The commodity market's strong performance was influenced by international factors, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance and geopolitical risks, which heightened market sentiment towards commodities [4]. Domestic Policy Impact - The implementation of a series of fiscal and financial policies aimed at boosting domestic demand has led to a significant improvement in the commodity market, with a broad-based increase replacing the previous differentiated performance [5]. - The People's Bank of China lowered the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points, which has positively impacted the industrial sector [5]. Sector-Specific Analysis Energy and Chemical Sector - The energy and chemical sector showed a strong performance in January, with the China Securities Energy Chemical Industry Futures Index rising by 7.54%, driven by improved demand and cost support [8][10]. - The demand for energy products, such as gasoline and diesel, improved due to the implementation of domestic policies and international geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices [10]. Steel Sector - The China Securities Steel Futures Index increased by 0.64%, supported by high demand and inventory reduction, with hot-rolled coil export orders rising by 12% year-on-year [12]. - The supply side faced tightening due to disruptions in Brazilian iron ore shipments, which provided additional cost support for the steel sector [12]. Construction Materials Sector - The China Securities Construction Materials Futures Index rose by 1.87%, reflecting a recovery in demand driven by accelerated infrastructure projects and supply-side adjustments [13]. - The market sentiment improved as the issuance of long-term special government bonds directed funds towards construction material projects [13]. Agricultural Products Sector - The China Securities Agricultural Products Index increased by 1.72%, with notable performance in oilseeds and soft commodities, driven by supply constraints and recovering demand [14]. - Palm oil prices rose due to adverse weather conditions in Malaysia, while cotton prices were supported by rising domestic purchase prices and weakening dollar index [14]. Contribution to Index Returns - The top contributors to the China Securities Commodity Futures Index in January were silver (4.09%), gold (1.47%), and crude oil (1.01%), while the only negative contributor was soda ash (-0.01%) [15][17]. - The strong performance of precious metals was attributed to increased safe-haven buying amid Federal Reserve policy uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [17].

【环球网财经综合报道】据彭博社等外媒报道，受全球金融市场突发波动影响，国际贵金属价格出现显著回调，交易 员抛售贵金属以补充流动性、弥补股市损失。与此同时，市场聚焦美国即将发布的通胀数据，多家国际机构对黄金中 长期走势维持乐观预期。 MKS PAMP SA分析师Nicky Shiels表示，市场波动速度超出预期，即便黄金等传统避险资产，在市场极度紧张时也会 被投资者抛售以换取流动性。 盛宝银行大宗商品策略师称，黄金与白银走势高度依赖市场情绪与交易动能，在市场剧烈波动阶段面临较大压力。此 外，周四金银部分抛售来自前期大涨后的获利回吐，此前投机性买盘推动价格快速上行，积累了一定回调压力。 当前，华尔街交易员密切关注即将公布的美国核心消费者价格指数，以此研判美联储货币政策走向。市场普遍认为， 较低的借贷成本对无息贵金属形成支撑。 尽管短期出现剧烈调整，多家国际银行仍预计黄金将重回上涨趋势，认为支撑本轮金价上行的核心因素未发生改变， 包括地缘政治局势、市场对相关政策与资产配置的判断等。其中，摩根大通私人银行预计年底金价将达到每盎司6000 至6300美元，德意志银行、高盛集团同样维持乐观展望。 在市场避险情绪与流动性需 ...

Stock Market - The A-share market experienced a slight increase, with Wind All A rising by 0.46% and a trading volume of 2.16 trillion yuan, while the TMT and power equipment sectors led the gains [3][9] - The consumer sector continued to decline, with the CSI 1000 index up by 0.91%, CSI 500 index up by 1.17%, CSI 300 index up by 0.12%, and the SSE 50 index down by 0.28% [3][9] - Geopolitical risks, particularly the US-Iran situation and Japan's election results, are significant factors affecting the A-share market during the Spring Festival [3][10] - The correlation between A-share technology themes and US stocks has increased since November, indicating a global market linkage rather than isolated A-share sentiment [3][10] - The newly nominated Federal Reserve Chairman's monetary policy is more hawkish than market expectations, emphasizing a results-oriented approach rather than a predictive model [3][10] Bond Market - The 30-year bond futures contract fell by 0.03%, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts rose by 0.02%, and the 2-year contract remained stable [11] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 400 billion yuan 14-day and a 166.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net injection of 448 billion yuan [11] - The interbank market saw a decline in the weighted rates for DR001 and DR007, down by 0.79 basis points to 1.362% and 1.31 basis points to 1.5257%, respectively [11][5] - The bond market's upward momentum is limited due to ongoing fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing growth, maintaining a fluctuating interest rate environment [5][11] Precious Metals - London spot precious metals saw a significant decline, influenced by geopolitical shifts, particularly Russia's potential return to the dollar settlement system [12] - Concerns over market liquidity were heightened following a drop in US stocks, leading to increased volatility in precious metals [12] - The current trend in precious metals remains unclear, with recommendations for light positions during the holiday period, focusing more on gold performance [12]