1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed has entered a new round of interest - rate cut cycles, and the continued improvement of US manufacturing data is favorable for non - ferrous metals in the long - term. However, after the interest - rate cut is implemented, there will be a phased adjustment, and future trends depend on economic data [11]. - Different non - ferrous metals have different market conditions and investment strategies. For example, copper is recommended to go long on dips; zinc can be moderately long on dips; the aluminum industry chain is recommended to be short; tin short - term long positions can be appropriately taken profit; lead can be long on dips; nickel and stainless steel can be long on dips [3][4][5][6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metal Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, starting a new round of interest - rate cut cycles. China's one - year and five - year LPR in September remained unchanged. China's central bank adheres to an independent monetary policy and implements a moderately loose monetary policy. After the interest - rate cut, there was a phased adjustment, and future trends depend on economic data [11]. - **This Week's Focus**: The release of August PCE and September European and American manufacturing PMIs, intensive speeches by Fed officials including Powell, the release of China's September LPR, and the participation of Pan Gongsheng, Wu Qing, and Li Yunze in the "14th Five - Year Plan" series of press conferences [12]. - **Non - ferrous Metal Strategies**: Different non - ferrous metals have different operation logics, support and pressure areas, market judgments, and investment strategies. For example, copper is expected to strengthen in shock and is recommended to go long on dips; zinc will fluctuate in a range and can be long on dips; the aluminum industry chain is expected to be weak and is recommended to be short; tin will rebound in shock and short - term long positions can be reduced; lead will fluctuate upward and can be long on dips; nickel and stainless steel are recommended to be long on dips [13][14][15]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metal Market Review The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are presented. For example, copper closed at 80160 with a 0.31% increase; zinc closed at 22090 with a 0.20% increase; aluminum closed at 20745 with a 0.24% decrease, etc. [16]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metal Position Analysis The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metal sector shows the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, changes in net long and net short positions, and influencing factors of different varieties such as silver, gold, tin, copper, etc. [18]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Spot Market The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are provided. For example, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price is 80340 yuan/ton with a 0.24% increase; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price is 21960 yuan/ton with a 0.14% decrease, etc. [19][21]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Industry Chain Graphs related to the industry chain of various non - ferrous metals are presented, including inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, etc. For example, for copper, there are graphs of exchange copper inventory changes and SMM social copper inventory changes; for zinc, there are graphs of zinc inventory changes and zinc concentrate processing fee changes [23][27]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metal Arbitrage Graphs related to non - ferrous metal arbitrage are presented, including changes in the Shanghai - London ratio, basis spreads, and price differences between different varieties. For example, for copper, there are graphs of copper Shanghai - London ratio changes and the basis spread between Shanghai copper and London copper [56]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metal Options Graphs related to non - ferrous metal options are presented, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, and open - interest changes. For example, for copper, there are graphs of copper option historical volatility and copper option weighted implied volatility [72].

Group 1 - On September 22, gold ETFs (518880) rose by 1.90%, with trading volume exceeding 3.6 billion yuan by the end of the day, while gold stock ETFs (159321) increased by 3.39% [1] - Spot gold reached a record high of $3,745 per ounce on September 22, marking a 1.66% increase for the day, and spot silver also hit a new high not seen since August 2011 [1] - Ping An Securities indicated that the second half of the year remains in a loose monetary cycle, with some metal fundamentals improving, suggesting a rise in both precious and industrial metal prices [1] Group 2 - Shanghai Securities maintains a long-term bullish outlook on gold, suggesting potential for further upward movement, driven by factors such as global de-dollarization and the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle [2] - Guoxin Securities noted that gold assets are supported by the trend of de-dollarization and ongoing central bank purchases, with short-term market sentiment bolstered by revised non-farm data and increased rate cut expectations [2] - Silver is transitioning from an industrial byproduct to a valuable asset, driven by industrial demand and financial attributes, with AI and 5G technology potentially widening the supply-demand gap [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00-4.25% during its September meeting, while also revising up its economic and inflation forecasts, indicating a potential for three more rate cuts by 2025 [42][46] - The U.S. retail sales in August increased by 0.6%, surpassing market expectations of a decline of 0.2%, driven by improvements in online shopping and dining services [46] Group 2 - The fourth round of U.S.-China trade talks concluded with a consensus on the TikTok issue, focusing on data security and content management, but limited progress on broader trade topics [28] - As of July, the average tariff rate imposed by the U.S. on global imports was 9.75%, with a significantly higher rate of 40.36% on imports from China, contributing approximately $10.1 billion in tariff revenue [28][31]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year [1] - Following the Fed's rate cut, several banks in China have adjusted their personal USD time deposit rates, with many currently maintaining rates in the "3% range" for one-year deposits [1] - Nanjing Bank's new USD deposit rates effective from September 13 show a decrease, with one-year rates dropping from 4% to 3.0% for a minimum deposit of $100,000 [1] Group 2 - According to a chief economist at CITIC Securities, the likelihood of further declines in USD deposit rates is high due to the Fed's recent rate cut and potential future cuts [2] - The downward adjustment of USD deposit rates may lead to reduced interest income for depositors, prompting them to seek higher-yielding assets such as bonds or stocks [2] - Investors are advised to diversify their asset allocation in USD investments and closely monitor Fed policy changes and exchange rate fluctuations [2]

昨晚美联储如预期降息了25个基点，今年预计还会有两次降息，降50个基点，按照最新的点阵图，未来 两年还会各再降25个基点。 投资人听到美联储要降息，往往是高兴的，但他们如果有心去翻一下历次美联储降息周期中资产的表 现，又会不寒而栗，历史上美股的深度熊市，恰恰发生在美联储的降息周期中。 那么，美联储降息，到底是利好，还是利空，是牛市的加速器，还是熊市的开端？ 要了解这个问题，我们先来看下过去的情况，从90年代到今天，美国有7次降息周期。 01 1990年7月-1992年10月 这个的降息背景是1990年7月，按美国统计局定义，美国经济正式进入经济衰退，衰退的主要原因是80 年代末的高利率和紧缩政策逐渐压制了需求。 当时美国的联邦基金利率是8%，10年期国债利率也是8%以上，长时间扛这样的高成本绝不是一件容易 的事。而这个时候美国的储贷危机还在持续，银行受此冲击，信贷收紧了。 另一方面，80年代末美国的通胀一度较高，但到1990年开始显著回落，物价压力减轻，也给了美联储灵 活的空间。 从1990年7月开始，美联储开始降息，一直降到1992年9月，联邦基金利率从8%降到了3%。 实际美国经济在91年一季度见底了（9 ...

Core Insights - The recent increase in posts related to resource cyclical products on investment social platforms indicates growing interest in this sector [1] - Multiple sub-sectors within the resource cycle have shown positive performance, with several resource-themed funds reaching new net asset value highs this year [1] - The anticipated arrival of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle is expected to benefit the non-ferrous metals sector, as market liquidity becomes more accommodative [1] - With the Producer Price Index (PPI) in China approaching a turning point, resource products are likely to emerge as key drivers in the next market rally, supporting a bullish outlook on cyclical investments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Russell 2000 index has shown signs of recovery and potential for growth as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations rise, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards small-cap stocks after a prolonged period of underperformance compared to the S&P 500 index [1][4][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Russell 2000 index rose by 2.1% to 2453.36 points during trading, briefly surpassing its historical closing high for the first time since November 2021, before retracting some gains to close up 0.2% [1][4]. - Since the low point in April, the Russell 2000 index has rebounded over 36%, reflecting a significant recovery from previous market fears [9][12]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, marking its first rate cut in nine months, with plans for potentially two more cuts this year [4][5]. - The Fed's policy statement shifted focus from a strong labor market to concerns about slowing job growth and rising unemployment, indicating a new phase of monetary easing [5][11]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - There is a growing optimism among investors regarding small-cap stocks, as they are seen as undervalued compared to large-cap stocks, particularly in light of the Fed's easing policies [7][10]. - Analysts predict that small-cap stocks may outperform large-cap stocks, especially if the economy avoids recession and enters a period of declining interest rates [9][11]. Group 4: Earnings and Valuation - Small-cap companies have reported better-than-expected earnings in the second quarter, which has contributed to a more favorable outlook for their future performance [10][12]. - The expectation of lower interest rates is anticipated to significantly reduce interest expenses for small-cap firms, potentially enhancing their profitability and stock valuations [13].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.0%-4.25%, marking a 25 basis points cut and the first rate decrease since 2025 [1] - Historical analysis shows that during previous Federal Reserve rate cut cycles, the A-share market exhibited varying performance, with significant declines noted in certain periods [4] - For instance, during the 2001 rate cut period, the cumulative reduction was 475 basis points, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 20.35% [4] Group 2 - In the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve cut rates 10 times, totaling a 500 basis points reduction, while the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a dramatic decline of 63.57% [4] - The data indicates that the A-share market's performance during rate cuts has often been negative, suggesting a potential correlation between rate cuts and market downturns [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that a new bull market for gold may be driven by investor demand, with predictions that spot gold prices could exceed $4,000 per ounce by Q1 2026 due to the upcoming Federal Reserve rate cut cycle and strong investor interest [1][9]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Morgan Stanley has raised its gold price forecast, expecting an average of $3,800 per ounce by Q4 2025 and over $4,000 per ounce in Q1 2026, which is a quarter earlier than previously anticipated [9]. - The report indicates a fundamental shift in the driving forces of the gold market, with investor demand now taking precedence over central bank purchases as the main catalyst for price increases [2][6]. - Historical data shows that gold typically performs well during Federal Reserve rate cut cycles, with double-digit returns often seen within nine months of the cuts [6][9]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - There has been a significant inflow into global gold ETFs, with nearly 72 tons added in a two-week period ending September 5, 2025, marking the largest inflow since mid-April [3][6]. - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields has reignited interest in gold ETFs, as lower nominal yields translate into lower real yields, which is favorable for gold investment [8][9]. Group 3: Tail Risks and Scenarios - A notable tail risk identified is the potential erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence, which could lead to a significant shift of funds from U.S. Treasuries to gold, potentially pushing gold prices to $5,000 per ounce within two quarters [11][14]. - The analysis suggests that even a small rotation of funds from the $29 trillion U.S. Treasury market to gold could result in substantial price increases, with a hypothetical $800 billion quarterly flow being sufficient to elevate gold prices significantly [12][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the optimistic outlook for gold, there are concerns regarding a potential sharp decline in central bank gold purchases, which could challenge the sustainability of the price increase [16]. - The report anticipates that central bank gold purchases will average between 700-800 tons annually in 2025 and 2026, which is significantly higher than the pre-2022 average of around 400 tons [16].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has raised its gold price forecast, expecting spot gold prices to exceed $4,000 per ounce by Q1 2026, driven by strong investor demand and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][7] Group 1: Price Predictions - The report predicts an average gold price of $3,800 per ounce by Q4 2025 and a breakthrough of $4,000 per ounce in Q1 2026, which is a quarter earlier than previous estimates [7] - Gold prices have already reacted, rising approximately 6% in September, trading near historical highs of $3,680 per ounce [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The primary driver of the current gold price increase has shifted from central bank purchases to investor demand, with significant inflows into gold ETFs observed [1][3] - Historical data indicates that gold typically performs well during Federal Reserve rate cut cycles, with double-digit returns often seen within nine months of rate cuts [3][7] Group 3: Investor Behavior - The report highlights a significant inflow of nearly 72 tons of gold into global ETFs, valued at approximately $8 billion, in the two weeks leading up to September 5, 2025 [3] - Non-commercial net long positions in COMEX gold futures have reached new highs, indicating strong investor sentiment [3] Group 4: Tail Risks and Scenarios - A potential risk identified is the erosion of Federal Reserve independence, which could lead to a significant shift of funds from U.S. Treasuries to gold, potentially pushing gold prices to $5,000 per ounce within two quarters [9][11] - The analysis suggests that even a small rotation of funds from the $29 trillion U.S. Treasury market to gold could result in substantial price increases [10][11] Group 5: Central Bank Demand - Despite the positive outlook for gold, there are concerns regarding a potential sharp decline in central bank gold purchases, which could impact the sustainability of the price increase [13] - The report notes that central bank purchases in Q2 2025 were at their lowest level since Q2 2022, although average annual purchases are expected to remain high [13]