视觉 | 顾芗 动荡，是2025年4月的月度主题。 掀起全球贸易波涛的始作俑者，是美国总统特朗普。这位曾被视为"黑天鹅"的总统再度上任，仍然高举 MAGA(让美国继续伟大)的旗帜，并决意向全球市场投入一枚炸弹。 美东时间4月2日，特朗普签署"对等关税"行政令，宣布对美国所有进口产品征收至少10%的基础关税， 对60多个贸易逆差较大的经济体加征了额外关税，于4月9日生效，而中国被加征了34%的关税。 尽管这一天，被特朗普宣布为"解放日"，但政策宣布的第二天，美股应声暴跌，标普500跌幅达4.85%， 纳斯达克指数跌幅达5.99%。 关税战，重新打响，但事情不仅没有结束，反而向更癫狂的方向发展。 文 | 任早羽 编辑 | 何子维 值班编辑｜ 宝珠 4月2日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署关于所谓"对等关税"的行政令，宣布美国对贸易伙伴加征10％的"最低基准关税"，并对某些 贸易伙伴征收更高关税。/图源：新华社记者 胡友松 摄 4月7日，美国要求中国撤回34%的反制关税，翌日，美国宣布对中国出口美国商品加征关税到84%，到 美东时间4月9日，特朗普宣布对中国加税至125%。 美国以一种近似于赌博的加税态势，把全球秩序推到 ...

不到一天后，OPEC+宣布以快于预期的速度增产，令市场震惊。双重冲击一度导致美国原油期货下跌逾6%，创下自俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来的最大跌幅，而 一项关键的波动性指标飙升至六个月高点。 在上周终于迎来三周来的首次周线上涨后，国际油价周一再度下滑，低开低走下盘中一度跌逾3%，因投资者再次担心美国对其贸易伙伴征收的关税将造成 经济逆风，从而降低燃料需求增长。而且由于周六美国和伊朗核谈判出现进展迹象，供应方面的担忧有所缓解。 据悉在会谈中，美国和伊朗同意开始制定潜在核协议的框架，此前美国官员称此次会谈取得了"非常好的进展"。而原本美国对伊朗的制裁对原油价格形成了 提振，推动布伦特原油和WTI原油价格上周上涨约5%，为三周以来首次周度上涨。 就在上个月，原油价格一直处于窄幅区间的低迷交投。在那段短暂的时期，石油市场从停滞不前转为经历了剧烈的价格波动，WTI原油价格自4月高位至本 月低位，一度累计下跌23%（当前收复近一半涨幅）。导火索是美国总统唐纳德·特朗普于4月2日宣布全面加征关税，贸易战由此升级。 也有迹象表明，石油消费者正试图通过锁定其最大的单笔成本来规避市场波动。掉期交易商上周增持了布伦特原油和ICE柴油期货的多 ...

作者 | 深鹏 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 关税战到现在，急跌经历过了，反弹也已经有了。 市场似乎进入了横盘时间，整体走势是跌不下去，但也涨不上去，略显无聊。 具体到股指和个 股方面，分化也挺大，股指因为一直有维稳资金托着，估计这周也会如此，自然不用担 心跌下去，但个股层面的变化大，轮 动快，赚钱效应很一般。 可以明显得感受得到，整个市场都在等待一个终极信号，这个信号大概率能打破市场的盘整走势。 更重要的是，这个信号就在本周揭晓。 依然要注意避险 01 在解码这个终极信号之前，还是先简单复盘一下行情走势。 今天的盘面，大体上是科技板块继续回调，有关税反向利好以及避险板块继续升温。 | 热门概念指数 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 智能物流 | 离境退税 | 数字货币 | PEEK材料 | 高关转 | | 3.35% | 3.25% | 2.59% | 2.53% | 2.39% | | 跨境支付 | 统一大市场 | 工业气体 | 未合体硅片 | IGBT | | 2.29% | 2.26% | 2.23% | 2.22 ...

Core Viewpoint - The demand for ternary materials in the market continues to diverge, with domestic high-nickel high-voltage orders persisting, while overall overseas demand remains weak [2][4]. Group 1: Production and Market Share - In Q1 2025, China's ternary material production was 140,000 tons, a year-on-year decline of 10.3%, while global production was 212,000 tons, down 9.3%. China's global market share increased from 64.4% in 2024 to 66.1% [2]. - The proportion of 6-series ternary materials in China has further increased, exceeding 30%, while the share of mid-low nickel materials continues to shrink [4]. Group 2: Price Fluctuations and Cost Impact - The cobalt price experienced significant volatility, with prices rising over 80% in about two weeks due to various policy factors, including the suspension of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo and the establishment of a strategic alliance with Indonesia. This has notably impacted the cost of ternary materials, especially mid-low nickel types [8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Competition - Currently, orders for ternary materials are limited outside of high-nickel high-voltage products, with most changes being adjustments in order distribution among suppliers. In Q1 2025, Nantong Ruixiang emerged as a top player due to strong product shipments, while companies like Rongbai Technology, Tianjin Bamo, and Guangdong Bangpu benefited from overseas high-nickel demand [12]. - The ongoing U.S. tariff war is expected to suppress overseas demand for new energy vehicles in the short term, leading to a downward adjustment in total market expectations. However, domestic orders remain relatively stable, indicating a potential widening gap in demand across different supply chains [14].

作 者丨易妍君，彭卓 编 辑丨张星，梁明，江佩佩 4月2 2日市场震荡分化，三大指数涨跌不一， 沪指重回3 3 0 0点上方 。截至早盘收盘，沪指涨0 . 3 1%，深成指跌0 . 4 1%，创业板指跌0 . 9 8%。盘 面上热点较为杂乱，个股跌多涨少， 全市场超3 1 0 0只个股下跌 。 | | | 3 0 元 / 克 关 口，续 创 历 史 新 高 。 高盛近期更新了预测，预计到2 0 2 5年年底，现货黄金价格将达到3 7 0 0美元/盎司，而到2 0 2 6年年中将攀升至4 0 0 0美元/盎司。 | | | FRENCE OF | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 年初至今 | | SHFE更全 | 833.48 | 35.02 | 4.39% | 34.26% | | SGE#31+D | 831.02 | 31.42 | 3.93% | 35.16% | | SGE黄金9999 | 831.80 | 27.69 | 3.44% | 35.30% | | 上海金 | 821.75 | 17.91 | 2.2 ...

中新网4月22日电（记者陈彩霞）"美国总统特朗普对关税的错误理解，导致他做出了一系列错误决定， 对全球资本市场、股市及债市造成严重冲击，将美国单边霸凌主义表现得淋漓尽致。"中国社科院国家 全球战略智库国际政治研究部主任赵海在接受中新网采访时如是说道。 赵海认为，目前中美双方在沟通层面存在着重大障碍，而这些障碍"明显是美方制造出来的"。 赵海强调，美国发起的关税战短期内遭遇强烈反弹，导致美国内市场陷入混乱，民众抗议不断，其阵营 内部也出现分裂——代表华尔街资本的美国亿万富翁马斯克与"美国优先"派代表、白宫贸易和制造业高 级顾问彼得·纳瓦罗激烈对立。 "面对各方压力，特朗普被迫调整策略，将关税政策仓促退让包装成'抬价后谈判'的既定计划，试图通 过施压换取他国让步，并最终将矛头集中指向中国。"赵海说道。 针对美"对等关税"一再升级，中方先后出台一系列反制措施，有力回击经济霸凌。 当地时间4月18日，美国哥伦比亚广播公司援引多名消息人士透露，由于特朗普政府对中国商品加征的 畸高关税将导致供应链危机，特朗普政府内部已开始讨论组建一个工作组，以便在未能与中国政府谈判 取得突破的情况下紧急处理这些问题。 他分析称，中美关系 ...

Group 1: General Information - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: April 22, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Views - The expectation of price increase in May for spot goods is insufficient. Airlines are lowering quotes at the end of April, and quotes at the beginning of May are basically the same as those at the end of April. The demand on the US route has dropped significantly due to high tariffs and port - calling fees, and airlines may disperse ships to other routes, increasing supply pressure and making price increases more difficult. Short - term attention should be paid to the possible oversold rebound caused by the easing of Sino - US frictions, and the risk of decline in far - month contracts may be greater [8] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot market: The expectation of price increase in May is insufficient. Airlines are lowering quotes at the end of April, and quotes at the beginning of May are basically flat with those at the end of April. The large container quotes are mostly between $1900 - 2200, HPL quotes are higher, and it plans to further raise quotes for the second half of May. But there is no collective price - supporting action from shipping alliances yet. - Supply side: High US tariffs and port - calling fees on Chinese shipping and shipbuilding industries have led to a significant drop in demand and freight rates on the US route. Airlines' dispersion of ships to other routes may increase supply pressure and make price increases more difficult. - Suggestion: Pay attention to the possible oversold rebound due to the easing of Sino - US frictions in the short term. The decline risk of far - month contracts may be greater [8] 2. Industry News - From April 14th to 18th, the Chinese export container shipping market was basically stable, with the comprehensive index slightly decreasing. China's Q1 GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year. The market expects the "tariff war" to put pressure on Q2 trade and economy. - On April 18th, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1370.58 points, down 1.7% from the previous period. The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The European shipping market was generally stable, with freight rates slightly falling. The Mediterranean shipping market was slightly stronger, with spot booking prices rising slightly. - The WTO adjusted the forecast of global merchandise trade volume from a 2.7% increase at the beginning of the year to a 0.2% decline. The US - China shipping market saw a decline in cargo volume, and the freight rate on the US - West route decreased slightly. - Discussions on a Gaza cease - fire agreement are close to completion. The US government plans to charge additional fees on Chinese ships docking in US ports. Maersk will adjust peak - season surcharges for routes from Far - East countries (excluding China and Hong Kong) to the US and Canada. US President Trump said he is confident of reaching an agreement with China [9][10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - From April 14th to 21st, the SCFIS for the European route increased by 7.6% from 1402.35 to 1508.44, while the SCFIS for the US - West route decreased by 13.8% from 1587.84 to 1368.41 [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market - The report provides the trading data of container shipping futures contracts on April 21st, including EC2504, EC2506, etc., showing information such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, and trading volume [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report includes charts of global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [19][22]

更要命的是，美国国内的对抗越来越激烈。哈佛大学拒绝联邦政府的审查令，这直接把联邦政府和学术机构、蓝州之间的矛盾推到了顶点，演变成了一 场"谁掌握定义权"的体制战争。联邦政府对传统中立领域的强制渗透，严重动摇了美国制度的根基。 总而言之，现在美国内外交困，各种风险叠加，甚至都有人说有发生内乱的风险。想想看，贫富差距拉大，社会分裂严重，加上经济危机和政治斗争，这火 药桶随时都可能爆炸。 最近美国那边，事情可真不少。感觉就像几百年前咱们老祖宗那会儿，商鞅变法的时候似的，一不小心就玩脱了。想当年商鞅那句"法治不诛心，诛心非法 治"，听起来挺霸气，结果呢？昏君奸臣一窝蜂，国家差点就散架了。现在美国这情况，跟这还真有点像，权力失衡，内忧外患，让人看着都替他们捏一把 汗。 说起来，这还得从特朗普的关税政策说起。这哥们儿一出手，就是全球关税战，那叫一个气势汹汹！结果呢？普通老百姓的钱包先瘪了，一年多花个三千多 美元，这可不是个小数目。爱荷华州的大豆农更是哭晕在厕所，价格暴跌68%，不少人直接破产。更可怕的是，美国经济对中国的依赖程度，比咱想象的还 要高，抗生素97%、稀土永磁体80%……这关税一打，风险直接飙升到爆表！国际货 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the return of multiple Boeing 737 MAX aircraft to Seattle due to increasing tariffs on aircraft purchases, which have risen by 125% since April 10 [12][15] - Airlines, including Xiamen Airlines and China Southern Airlines, are reconsidering their acceptance of Boeing aircraft amid the ongoing trade tensions, leading to delays in aircraft deliveries [12][16] - Boeing's Zhoushan factory, which has delivered fewer than 20 aircraft since its opening in late 2018, may face operational uncertainties again due to the tariff situation [13][15] Group 2 - The article highlights that Boeing has previously transferred delayed aircraft orders from Chinese airlines to Indian carriers, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [15] - The demand for narrow-body aircraft like the 737 MAX and Airbus A320neo remains high, with projections indicating that these aircraft will be sold out by 2030 [15][16] - If the tariff situation persists, other aircraft manufacturers such as Airbus and COMAC may benefit from the shifting demand in the market [16]