Core Insights - Spot gold has surpassed $3,800 per ounce, setting a new historical high, with a daily increase of over 1% [1] - Year-to-date, spot gold has risen nearly 45% [1] - Spot silver has also seen a daily increase of 2.26%, reaching $47.09 per ounce [1] Market Drivers - The recent strength in gold futures prices is attributed to the anticipation of further monetary easing following the onset of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle [1] - Increased geopolitical risks have heightened demand for safe-haven assets [1] - There has been a notable increase in global gold ETF holdings, alongside strong domestic consumption demand, creating a synergistic effect [1]

格隆汇9月29日｜根据加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets LLC)的预测，OPEC+预计将在10 月5日的会议上将供应配额再次提高13.7万桶/日。该机构还着重指出了第四季度的地缘政治风险。其表 示，实际供应增幅将远低于表面上的配额数字，因为除沙特阿拉伯外的许多国家"基本上已经达到了他 们的产能上限"。 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Gold, Silver Futures Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: September 29 - 30, 2025 [1] Group 2: Gold Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, currently possibly at the end of the trend [7]. - Trend Logic: This week, gold futures prices showed a strong - side oscillatory pattern of "rallying, pulling back, and then stabilizing again". Influenced by factors such as the market's expectation of further easing after the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, geopolitical risks boosting safe - haven demand, and the resonance of increased global gold ETF holdings and strong domestic consumption demand. Although there was a short - term pullback due to the resilience of US economic data and profit - taking by long positions, the medium - and long - term supporting factors remained unchanged, and the price quickly recovered and reached a new phased high. In the long run, the weakening of the US dollar's credit, continuous gold purchases by global central banks, and rising geopolitical risks, combined with a surge in investment demand, provide multiple supports [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The gold contract 2512 was expected to mainly oscillate at a high level, with support at 805 - 812 and resistance at 838 - 845. Attention should be paid to the Fed's policy path guidance and US economic data verification [10]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The gold contract 2512 faces pressure from profit - taking at high levels, with support at 845 - 850. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [11]. 3. Relevant Data - The report presents multiple data charts including Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar - offshore RMB exchange rate, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][21][23] Group 3: Silver Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward phase, currently at the end of the trend [32]. - Trend Logic: Last week, the main silver futures contract 2512 showed an oscillatory strengthening trend, with a weekly increase of 2.91%, and the closing price reached a record high since listing. It was mainly supported by the financial attribute premium under the strengthened Fed interest - rate cut expectation, the safe - haven demand driven by geopolitical risks, and the fundamental support formed by industrial demand (photovoltaic, new - energy vehicles) and the supply - demand gap. The capital side shows that long - position confidence is stable, with both open interest and trading volume increasing simultaneously. This week, attention should be paid to the impact of US non - farm payroll data on interest - rate cut expectations, policy signals from Fed officials, and the position - holding risks brought by China's "National Day" holiday [32]. - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [32]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The silver contract 2512 was expected to run strongly, with support in the range of 9500 - 9800. Attention should be paid to the Fed's policy path guidance, US economic data verification, and changes in silver industrial demand expectations [35]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The silver contract 2512 is expected to run strongly, with support in the range of 10400 - 10500. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [36]. 3. Relevant Data - The report presents multiple data charts including Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [44][46][48]

Core Insights - The gold price has surged to record levels, driven by optimistic institutional forecasts and macroeconomic factors, indicating potential investment opportunities in the precious metals market [1][26][30]. Domestic Retail Market - Domestic gold retail prices show significant differentiation, with international gold spot prices at $3,761.9 per ounce, approximately ¥859.5 per gram. Major brands like Caibai and Lao Fengxiang set prices at ¥1,058 and ¥1,108 per gram respectively, reflecting competitive pricing strategies [2][3]. - The lowest price recorded was at Sun Gold Store, priced at ¥969 per gram [3]. International Market Dynamics - The international precious metals market experienced volatility on September 28, with gold prices declining to ¥3,311.86 per gram, a decrease of 1.27%. In contrast, platinum and palladium prices saw significant increases, with platinum rising by 3.03% to ¥1,176.76 per gram and palladium soaring by 5.36% to ¥1,065.20 per gram [4]. Bank Paper Precious Metals Pricing - Various banks exhibited differing price trends for paper precious metals. For instance, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) reported a paper gold price of ¥863.71 per gram, up by 0.84%, while China Construction Bank's price fell by 0.51% to ¥862.66 per gram [6][7][8]. Coin Series Pricing - The 2025 Panda gold coin series pricing was detailed, with the complete set priced at ¥52,119. Individual coins ranged from ¥1,170 for a 1-gram coin to ¥480,000 for a 1-kilogram commemorative coin [14][15][22]. Price Outlook and Institutional Predictions - The gold price has seen an unprecedented rise, with a cumulative increase of over 8.5% since September, and a year-to-date increase of 38%, outperforming major global stock indices and bond yields [26]. - Key factors supporting the gold price surge include expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, concerns over economic stagflation, geopolitical risks, and increased central bank gold purchases [27][28][29]. - Institutions like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs maintain optimistic forecasts, predicting gold prices could exceed $4,000 per ounce in the near future, with potential spikes to $5,000 per ounce under certain conditions [30].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in oil prices is driven by geopolitical tensions and market dynamics, with expectations of further increases in the near future [1][3][4] Price Adjustments - A new round of oil price adjustments is underway, with an expected increase of 120 yuan per ton, leading to a rise of 0.1 yuan per liter for 92 and 95 gasoline [1][2] - By October 13, the price increase could reach 200 yuan per ton, potentially pushing 92 gasoline prices above 7.2 yuan per liter [2] Market Dynamics - The oil price fluctuations are influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has created supply concerns in the European market [3] - The recent softening of the US dollar due to Federal Reserve policies has attracted speculative investments in the oil market, further driving up prices [3] Consumer Behavior - Consumers face a dilemma on whether to refuel now or wait for potential price drops, with current prices in Shandong around 7.08 yuan per liter [4] - The upcoming holiday season is expected to increase gasoline demand, contributing to the likelihood of price hikes [3][4]

下周一策略： 多单策略 3745 - 3750 3740下方 3770 - 3775 价格回踩关键支撑区，企稳后有望再次上攻。 空单策略 3780 - 3785 3790上方 3760 - 3755 价格逼近历史高位强阻力区，遇阻回落概率大。 短期来看，市场情绪整体偏多。推动金价上涨的主要动力来自市场对美联储的降息预期以及持续的地缘 政治风险带来的避险需求。从技术图形上看，黄金目前仍处于一个上行通道内。 不过，也需要保持一份谨慎。金价在创下新高后，技术指标显示存在一定的超买迹象，这意味着市场可 能需要稍作喘息，通过震荡来消化近期的涨幅。 严格止损：无论做多还是做空，都必须提前设置好止损并严格执行。 避开中间位：在3760美元等中间价位，建议多看少动，避免盲目追涨杀跌。 总的来看，对于下周一的操作，核心思路是 "高抛低吸" ，在关键支撑位寻找做多机会，在强阻力位警 惕回落风险。 主要策略：耐心等待金价回踩3745-3750美元支撑区域，若企稳可考虑轻仓做多。 备用策略：若金价直接反弹至3780-3785美元阻力区域且上行乏力，可考虑轻仓短空。 重要提醒： 务必轻仓：当前金价处于高位，波动可能加剧，务必控制好单笔 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on copper, aluminum, and precious metals, indicating a high level of market activity and potential for growth in these sectors [13][16]. Core Insights - Copper prices have surged due to unexpected production cuts, leading to significant supply shortages and rapid price increases [13]. - Aluminum is showing signs of recovery with inventory levels decreasing and downstream processing rates improving, suggesting a potential for sustained high profitability [15]. - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to rise further due to market anticipation of continuous interest rate cuts [16]. Summary by Sections Copper - This week, LME copper price increased by 2.09% to $10,205.00 per ton, while Shanghai copper rose by 3.20% to 82,500 yuan per ton [14]. - Supply side: The import copper concentrate processing fee index rose to -$40.36 per ton; national copper inventory decreased by 4,400 tons to 140,100 tons [14]. - Consumption side: Brass rod enterprises' operating rate was 48.49%, showing a slight increase of 0.71 percentage points [14]. Aluminum - This week, LME aluminum price decreased by 1.01% to $2,649.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum fell by 0.24% to 20,700 yuan per ton [15]. - Supply side: Electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas dropped by 21,000 tons to 617,000 tons [15]. - Demand side: Downstream processing enterprises' operating rate increased by 0.8 percentage points to 63.0%, driven by pre-holiday stocking [15]. Precious Metals - This week, COMEX gold price rose by 0.23% to $3,789.80 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings increasing by 5.15 tons to 1,005.72 tons [16]. - The market is experiencing fluctuations due to U.S. tariffs and escalating geopolitical risks, contributing to a volatile trading environment [16]. Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased, while the export volume of magnetic materials saw significant growth [32]. - Domestic rare earth separation enterprises are preparing for production halts, indicating potential supply constraints [32]. Antimony - Antimony ingot price is at 174,900 yuan per ton, showing a decrease of 2.26% [33]. - The demand for antimony is expected to recover as the photovoltaic glass market stabilizes [33]. Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate price is 4,450 yuan per ton, with a slight decrease of 0.45% [34]. - The demand for molybdenum is expected to rise as major steel mills resume procurement [34]. Tin - Tin ingot price increased by 1.74% to 273,700 yuan per ton, with inventory decreasing by 6.14% [35]. - The supply-demand dynamics are favorable, supported by strong inventory levels and demand from the semiconductor sector [35].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The Federal Reserve officials express differing views on interest rate adjustments, indicating ongoing internal divisions within the Fed [1][2] - Recent economic data shows an increase in the likelihood of the Fed maintaining interest rates in October, with the probability rising from 10% to 15% [2] - The U.S. second-quarter GDP annualized growth rate was revised up to 3.8%, driven by net exports, suggesting a stronger economic outlook [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The U.S. banking system's liquidity is tightening, as evidenced by a drop in bank reserves below $3 trillion for the first time since January [3] - The U.S. fiscal deficit for August reached $344.79 billion, primarily due to increased spending, which continues to exert pressure on fiscal policy [3] - The recent rise in precious metals, particularly silver, is attributed to increased leasing rates in the silver market, indicating delivery pressure in the spot market [5] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Significant political events, including proposed tariffs on pharmaceuticals and other goods by the U.S. government, may create favorable conditions for gold [4] - The potential resurgence of tariff-related tensions could impact global trade dynamics, further influencing precious metal markets [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The long-term upward trend in precious metals remains intact, supported by global debt and geopolitical factors, although short-term volatility should be approached with caution [5] - Gold is viewed as having stronger support, while silver is recognized for its greater elasticity in price movements [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market-A" for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating an expected return that will exceed the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [4]. Core Views - The copper market may enter a bull market phase due to significant production cuts at Freeport's Grasberg copper mine, disrupting the global supply-demand balance [1]. - Precious metals prices continue to rise, with silver breaking through historical highs, driven by geopolitical risks and monetary policy uncertainties [2]. - The G7 and EU are discussing setting a price floor for rare earths, which is expected to positively impact rare earth prices in the short term [1][10]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper prices have shown a week-on-week increase, with LME copper closing at $10,205 per ton (+2.1%) and SHFE copper at 82,470 CNY per ton (+3.3%) [3]. - Supply constraints are evident as Freeport announced a production cut of over 200,000 tons this year due to a landslide at the Grasberg mine [3]. - Demand remains stable, with copper rod and wire cable enterprises operating at 73.78% and 65.44% capacity, respectively [3]. - Social copper inventory as of September 19 is 140,100 tons, a decrease of 8,800 tons from the previous week [3]. Precious Metals - COMEX gold and silver closed at $3,756.8 and $46.1 per ounce, reflecting increases of 2.2% and 8.2% respectively [2]. - The U.S. core PCE price index rose by 0.2% in August, aligning with expectations, while geopolitical tensions have increased due to the U.S. Congress's actions and international recognition of Palestine [2]. Aluminum - LME aluminum closed at $2,649 per ton, down 1.0% from the previous week, while SHFE aluminum was at 20,755 CNY per ton, down 0.24% [4]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production cost is approximately 16,283 CNY per ton, with industry average profits expanding to around 4,487 CNY per ton [4]. Tin - SHFE tin futures closed at 273,600 CNY per ton, up 1.9% [9]. - Market attention is shifting back to fundamentals, with slow recovery in Myanmar and low inventory providing price support [9]. Strategic Metals - Rare earth prices have shown slight declines, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide at 562,500 CNY per ton and terbium oxide at 7,050,000 CNY per ton [10]. - The G7 and EU's consideration of a price floor for rare earths is expected to provide short-term support for prices [10].

上周国际市场风云变幻，美联储主席鲍威尔重申通胀就业双向风险，但警告股市估值问题。 市场方面，美股小幅下跌，道指周跌0.15%，纳指周跌0.51%，标普500指数周跌0.31%。欧洲三大股指 走高，英国富时100指数周涨0.74%，德国DAX30指数周涨0.42%，法国CAC40指数周涨0.22%。 本周看点颇多，投资者将重点关注美国就业数据，若出现任何疲软迹象，都可能重新点燃未来数月内美 联储启动一系列降息的预期。欧元区9月初步通胀数据即将发布，或影响年内宽松前景；澳大利亚联储 料按兵不动。此外，美国国会需在10月1日截止日期前通过政府拨款法案，若未能就此达成共识，美国 联邦政府将面临停摆。欧美经济体9月服务业采购经理人指数（PMI）终值将反映经济强度。 美国非农是否继续弱势 上周，美国国会参议院未表决通过众议院临时预算案。鉴于2025财年将于9月30日结束，如果国会在当 天前不能通过预算案，联邦政府将于当天午夜"关门"。 就业数据将成为未来一周市场关注的核心，其中最受瞩目的则是9月非农就业数据。近期劳动力市场数 据疲软，促使美联储在最近一次会议上决定降息。在非农数据发布前，市场参与者还可能关注多位美联 储官 ...