企业信心企稳。 欧元区 19 国经济景气指数从 10 月的 96.8 升至 11 月的 97.0 。 全球大类资产表现： 海外政策： 风险提示： 海外货币政策调整超预期，关税政策的不确定性 报告导读： 美联储多位鸽派官员发言刺激市场对 12 月降息预期再度升温，全球股市均止 跌回稳，黄金价格回到 4200 美元 / 盎司上方，白银、铜价均创历史新高。 美国经济： 欧洲经济： 制造业新订单保持增长。 制造业新订单（剔除飞机后的企业生产设备订单）在 9 月同比增长 4.02% ，环比增长 0.86 。 房价涨幅放缓。 9 月全美房价指数进一步回落至 338.25 ，当月同比增速放缓至 1.36% ，低于 8 月的 1.57% 。 消费增速放缓。 美国 9 月零售和食品服务销售额同比增长 4.26% ，环比增长 0.16% 。零售销售额同比增长 3.88% ，环比增长 0.09% 。 美联储 12 月降息预期大幅升至 80% 。 欧洲央行行长拉加德称当前利率处于"设定得当"的水平。 英国工党政府推出的 "史上最重税"的预算案遭遇"技术性泄密"。 日本发债计划大幅向短债倾斜。 日央行审议委员野口旭表态中性， 12 月 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - On December 1, the market experienced a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 3900 points, driven by a surge in the non-ferrous metals sector and active technology themes [1][2] - The top ten ETFs by increase included four related to non-ferrous metals and gold, with the Gold Stock ETF rising over 4%, marking the highest increase among all ETFs [2][3] - The non-ferrous metals sector's rise is attributed to increased expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to enhanced liquidity, alongside supply constraints and growing demand supporting price increases [2] Group 2: Bond Market Activity - The bond market has been volatile, with bond-related ETFs seeing active trading. On December 1, the total trading volume of ETFs reached 4298.36 billion yuan, with seven ETFs exceeding 100 billion yuan in trading volume [6][7] - The Short-term Bond ETF had the highest trading volume at 209.61 billion yuan, although it was lower than its previous trading volume of 292.87 billion yuan [7] - Four Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETFs had trading volumes exceeding 90 billion yuan, indicating strong market interest in this segment [7][8] Group 3: Inflow into Core Assets - Core assets are attracting incremental capital, with significant net inflows observed in ETFs such as the SSE 50 ETF and the CSI 500 ETF on November 28 [9][10] - The Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Dachen received the highest net inflow of 14.36 billion yuan, indicating continued investor interest despite market fluctuations [10]

而从实物供需层面，近年来，白银产量下降导致供应不足的缺口一直存在。全球交易所白银库存已降至近十年来低位，而光伏、电动汽车 等工业领域需求持续增长，进一步加剧现货市场紧张。在租赁市场，白银短期租赁利率飙升，凸显了市场上白银供应的短缺。有分析认 为，目前黄金与白银价格比约为75∶1，显著高于过去二十年约60∶1的平均水平，这表明白银在贵金属板块中相对被低估，美国银行日前已将 2026年白银目标价上调至每盎司65美元。 ※ 编辑：洪珊珊 ※ 校对：刘子纯 ※ 审核：易福进 曾静 12月1日亚洲交易时段，伦敦现货白银价格再创历史新高，盘中首次突破每盎司57美元，截至北京时间上午10点，伦敦现货银价报每盎司 57.7美元，涨幅约2.3%。今年以来，国际银价已上涨超90%，大幅跑赢黄金。 分析指出，近期市场对美联储降息预期升高，这为白银及整个贵金属市场提供了坚实支撑。芝商所美联储观察工具的最新数据显示，市场 预计美联储在12月降息25个基点的概率为87.4%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector has shown strong performance throughout 2025, with an annual increase of approximately 70%, ranking first among all industries, even surpassing the strong performance of the AI-driven optical module sector [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The rise of the non-ferrous metal sector, including precious, industrial, and rare metals, is largely attributed to the market's expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which have led to a weaker dollar and a new round of price increases for non-ferrous metals [3] - The anticipated resignation of Jerome Powell could signal a more dovish policy stance from the Federal Reserve post-2026, providing direct stimulus to the non-ferrous metal sector, especially precious metals [3] - The current market conditions are characterized by a "perfect storm" for non-ferrous metals, driven by financial benefits from interest rate cuts, global re-inflation, and moderate recovery expectations, which support demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [3] Group 2: Supply Constraints - Supply-side constraints are a core feature of the current market, with global copper mines facing production disruptions and limited new projects, while domestic aluminum production is restricted by strict "dual carbon" policies, creating a clear ceiling on supply [3] - The price elasticity of copper and aluminum in response to demand recovery is significantly heightened due to these supply constraints [3] Group 3: Growth Drivers - The ongoing energy transition and AI revolution are injecting growth potential into the non-ferrous metal sector, with significant demand for metals like copper, aluminum, silver, and lithium due to electric vehicles, photovoltaic and wind power, and grid upgrades [4] - Copper prices have surged over 20% this year, reaching a historical high of $11,294 per ton, with predictions suggesting it could reach $13,000 per ton by the end of 2026 driven by energy transition demands [4] Group 4: Gold Market Divergence - There is a growing divergence in market consensus regarding gold, with strong bullish logic supported by ongoing central bank purchases, as 95% of surveyed central banks expect to continue increasing their gold holdings in the next 12 months [5][6] - However, cautious and bearish voices are emerging, with some investors believing that the best phase for gold has passed, citing recent sales by the Russian central bank as a warning sign [7] - The traditional pricing framework for gold, based on the dollar and real interest rates, is seen as "ineffective," with the pricing power shifting from Western ETF investors to global central banks and Asian private sectors [7][8] Group 5: Strategic Position of Gold - The strategic position of gold is being reassessed in light of the accelerating growth of U.S. debt and geopolitical events, prompting central banks and investors to seek asset diversification [8] - Gold is viewed as a decentralized "stateless currency," likely to continue attracting global attention amid the long-term strategic competition between major economies [8] - The non-ferrous metal sector is being redefined as a combination of cyclical and growth attributes, moving beyond its traditional classification as a purely cyclical industry [8]

而从实物供需层面，近年来，白银产量下降导致供应不足的缺口一直存在。全球交易所白银库存已降至 近十年来低位，而光伏、电动汽车等工业领域需求持续增长，进一步加剧现货市场紧张。在租赁市场， 白银短期租赁利率飙升，凸显了市场上白银供应的短缺。有分析认为，目前黄金与白银价格比约为 75∶1，显著高于过去二十年约60∶1的平均水平，这表明白银在贵金属板块中相对被低估，美国银行日前 已将2026年白银目标价上调至每盎司65美元。 12月1日亚洲交易时段，伦敦现货白银价格再创历史新高，盘中首次突破每盎司57美元，截至北京时间 上午10点，伦敦现货银价报每盎司57.7美元，涨幅约2.3％。今年以来，国际银价已上涨超90％，大幅跑 赢黄金。 分析指出，近期市场对美联储降息预期升高，这为白银及整个贵金属市场提供了坚实支撑。芝商所美联 储观察工具的最新数据显示，市场预计美联储在12月降息25个基点的概率为87.4％，且被认为持鸽派立 场的哈西特成为下任美联储主席热门人选，进一步增强了市场对未来低利率环境的信心。 （来源：经济日报） 转自：经济日报 ...

01 12月1日，市场震荡拉升，沪指重返3900点上方。有色金属板块爆发，科技题材持续活跃，带动相关ETF上涨，涨幅前十的ETF中，有4 只有色、黄金相关ETF以及4只物联网相关ETF。 02 近期，债市持续震荡，债券相关ETF成交活跃。12月1日，成交额前十的ETF中，除1只短融ETF和2只货币ETF外，其余均为债券相关 ETF。科创债ETF成交持续活跃，4只科创债ETF成交额超90亿元。 03 核心资产迎来增量资金。11月28日，资金净流入居前的ETF中，出现上证50ETF（510050）、中证500ETF（510500）等产品。 有色、物联网相关ETF涨幅居前 12月1日，有色金属板块爆发。涨幅前十的ETF中4只为有色、黄金相关ETF，其中，黄金股票ETF基金涨超4%，在所有ETF中涨幅最 高。工业有色ETF涨近4%。 科技题材表现活跃，通信设备、物联网等相关ETF涨幅居前。涨幅居前的ETF中，有4只为物联网相关ETF。 对于今日大涨的有色金属板块，业内人士分析称，有色金属行业大涨的主要原因是，美联储降息预期升温导致流动性宽松预期增强，叠 加供给紧张和需求增长支撑价格上涨。 跌幅方面，12月1日，多只跨 ...

消息面上，美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示，如果特朗普提名他担任美联储主席，他将乐于效 劳。降息预期持续升温，据CME"美联储观察"数据，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为87.4%，远高于 11月21日的39.6%。12月1日，现货黄金突破4230美元/盎司，日内涨0.26%。 高盛调查显示，超70%机构投资者预计黄金明年将继续上涨，36%预计明年年底前升破5000美元；受联 储降息预期提振，现货黄金年初至今累计上涨超60%。此外，在全球供应紧张与美联储降息预期推动 下，白银价格史上首次突破57美元/盎司。 紫金矿业 紫金矿业 灵宝黄金 中国黄金国际 中国白银集团 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 30.06 1.48 5.18% 7.24% 4.83% 2.41% 0.00% 2.41% 4.83% 7.24% 26.51 27.20 27.89 28.58 29.27 29.96 30.65 09:30 10:30 11:30/13:00 14:00 15:00 0 715万 1430万 2145万 黄金股涨幅居前，截至发稿，中国白银国际(00815)涨11.27%，报0.79港元；灵宝黄金(0333 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年12月01日16时21分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位分化，沪金主力收涨1.33%，沪银主力收涨5.86%，铂金主力收涨3.96%，钯金主力收涨2.44%。①核心逻辑，短 期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期仍存。②避险属性方面，中美经贸磋商成果 共识公布。俄乌、中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币属性方面，美联储理事沃勒和纽约联储威廉姆斯讲话共同提高美联储降息可能 性。美联储褐皮书显示，美国经济活动变化不大，但政府停摆令多地需求受抑。美国9月零售销售不及预期，消费者信心降至七个 月低点。美国9月就业增长超预期，但失业率升至4.4%。美国政府结束停摆，市场等待更多经济数据指引。目前市场预期美联储12 月降息25基点概率暴涨至80%附近。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币升值利 空内价格。需求端氢能产业被列为战略新兴产业，对铂基催化剂的需求形成长期强劲预期。钯金长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。 ⑤预计贵金属短期金弱银强，铂强钯弱，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 策略： ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of silver has reached a historic high, surpassing $57 per ounce, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and supply-demand dynamics in the market [1] Market Dynamics - As of December 1, during Asian trading hours, London spot silver prices hit $57.7 per ounce, reflecting a 2.3% increase [1] - Year-to-date, international silver prices have risen over 90%, significantly outperforming gold [1] Federal Reserve Influence - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December stand at 87.4%, providing strong support for silver and the broader precious metals market [1] - The potential appointment of a dovish candidate, Haskett, as the next Federal Reserve Chair further boosts confidence in a low-interest-rate environment [1] Supply and Demand Factors - A persistent supply shortage has emerged due to declining silver production in recent years [1] - Global silver inventories at exchanges have fallen to near a decade low, while demand from industrial sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles continues to grow, intensifying market tightness [1] - In the leasing market, short-term silver leasing rates have surged, highlighting the scarcity of silver supply [1] Valuation Insights - The current gold-to-silver price ratio is approximately 75:1, significantly higher than the 20-year average of 60:1, indicating that silver may be undervalued within the precious metals sector [1] - Bank of America has raised its silver price target for 2026 to $65 per ounce [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall black market is expected to experience low - level oscillations with a slight rebound. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, while the iron ore market will see the futures price moving towards the spot price, with short - term interval operations recommended. The coal - coke market is expected to have the basis repaired, and the ferroalloy market is likely to maintain a weak consolidation [12][13][15][16]. Summary According to the Directory 01 周度行情回顾 - **Price Changes**: The prices of most varieties showed fluctuations. For example, the futures price of rebar RB2601 increased by 1.73% from 3057 to 3110, and the spot price of HRB400E: Φ20 in Shanghai rose by 0.93% from 3220 to 3250. The price of coking coal JM2601 decreased by 3.26% from 1103 to 1067, and the spot price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu decreased by 2.82% from 1420 to 1380 [8]. 02 本周黑色行情预判 - **Steel**: The supply side may tighten as the impact of production line maintenance on output is expected to shrink significantly. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with a view of low - level oscillations and a slight rebound. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures price is moving towards the spot price. The supply pressure of foreign mines may decline, and the domestic demand is decreasing. It is recommended to conduct interval operations in the short term, with the price of the main contract of Dalian iron ore ranging from 765 to 800 yuan/ton [13]. - **Coal - Coke**: The domestic coal production is stabilizing, but the high - level import of coal and the decreasing domestic hot - metal output may lead to a decline in the spot market, and the basis is expected to be repaired. The futures price is expected to oscillate near the lower limit of the range (1100 - 1300) [15]. - **Ferroalloy**: The demand side lacks resilience and is expected to weaken further. The supply - side contraction is not as expected, and the market is expected to maintain a weak consolidation. Attention should be paid to the changes in the supply side and downstream demand [16]. 03 品种数据 成材 - **Rebar**: The weekly output was 206.08 tons, a decrease of 1.88 tons compared to the previous week. The apparent demand was 227.94 tons, a decrease of 2.85 tons. The total inventory was 531.48 tons, a decrease of 21.86 tons [19][30]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The weekly output was 319.01 tons, an increase of 3.00 tons compared to the previous week. The apparent demand was 320.22 tons, a decrease of 4.20 tons. The total inventory was 400.90 tons, a decrease of 1.21 tons [31][37]. 铁矿石 - **Port Inventory**: The total port inventory of imported ore was 15210.12 tons, an increase of 155.47 tons compared to the previous week. The daily port throughput was 330.58 tons/day, an increase of 0.66 tons/day [51]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8942.48 tons, a decrease of 58.785 tons compared to the previous week. The daily consumption was 289.43 tons/day, a decrease of 2.25 tons/day [61]. - **Global Shipment**: The total global shipment was 3323.3 tons, an increase of 44.8 tons compared to the previous week. The shipment from Australia and Brazil to the world was 2663.2 tons, an increase of 65.7 tons [69]. 煤焦 - **Coke Inventory**: The total coke inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) was 884.7 tons, an increase of 4.1 tons compared to the previous week. The inventory of independent coke enterprises was 71.8 tons, an increase of 6.5 tons [95]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal - washing plants) was 2635.5 tons, an increase of 25.8 tons compared to the previous week. The inventory of independent coke enterprises was 1010.3 tons, a decrease of 27.9 tons [101]. 铁合金 - **Spot Price**: The price of semi - carbonated manganese ore in Tianjin Port was 34 yuan/dry - ton degree, a decrease of 0.2 yuan compared to the previous week. The spot price of ferromanganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 5500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan compared to the previous week [132]. - **Output**: The weekly output of ferromanganese silicon was 194775 tons, a decrease of 2135 tons compared to the previous week. The weekly output of ferrosilicon was 10.72 tons, a decrease of 0.11 tons compared to the previous week [139][141]. - **Demand**: The weekly demand for ferromanganese silicon in five major steel products was 121727 tons, an increase of 320 tons compared to the previous week. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon was 19660 tons, an increase of 117 tons compared to the previous week [144]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of ferromanganese silicon was 368000 tons, an increase of 5000 tons compared to the previous week. The inventory of ferrosilicon was 71830 tons, a decrease of 1220 tons compared to the previous week [147].