Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On January 6, platinum and palladium futures prices generally rose. The PT2606 contract closed up 6.02% to 616.8 yuan/gram, and the PD2606 contract closed up 5.16% to 471.9 yuan/gram. Affected by geopolitical risks, precious metal prices collectively rose, driving platinum and palladium prices to strengthen significantly. Due to market concerns about the spillover of the Venezuelan situation to South America, mineral resources were favored by funds, which also boosted platinum and palladium prices. [5] - Recently, the premium of domestic platinum and palladium futures prices over spot prices and the external premium have continued to narrow, indicating that platinum and palladium prices are returning to a relatively reasonable range. [5] - Looking ahead, under the macro - favorable conditions and relatively stable performance of gold and silver, platinum and palladium are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly. However, in the short - term, the volatility of platinum and palladium may still remain at a relatively high level, and investors are advised to control their positions. In the long - term, with the supply gap of platinum still existing and the supply of palladium tending to be loose, the strategy can focus on buying platinum at low prices or adopting a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy. [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Domestic Prices (yuan/gram) - Platinum futures main contract closing price: The current value is 616.8, the previous value is 583.95, with a rise of 5.63%. [5] - Spot: Gold Exchange - Pt9995 closing price: The current value is 605.53, the previous value is 573.65, with a rise of 5.56%. [5] - Spot platinum (99.95%): The current value is 600, the previous value is 566, with a rise of 6.01%. [5] - Platinum basis (spot - futures): The current value is - 16.8, the previous value is - 17.95, with a decline of 6.41%. [5] - Palladium futures main contract closing price: The current value is 471.9, the previous value is 452.85, with a rise of 4.21%. [5] - Spot palladium (99.95%): The current value is 445, the previous value is 436, with a rise of 2.06%. [5] - Palladium basis (spot - futures): The current value is - 26.9, the previous value is - 16.85, with a rise of 59.64%. [5] International Prices (15:00, US dollars/ounce) - London spot platinum: The current value is 2318.782, the previous value is 2211.121, with a rise of 4.87%. [5] - London spot palladium: The current value is 1742.095, the previous value is 1671.588, with a rise of 4.22%. [5] - NYMEX platinum: The current value is 2327.6, the previous value is 2218, with a rise of 4.94%. [5] - NYMEX palladium: The current value is 1791.5, the previous value is 1719.5, with a rise of 4.19%. [5] Internal - External 15:00 - US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate: The current value is 7.0173, the previous value is 7.023, with a decline of 0.08%. [5] Price Spreads (yuan/gram) - Guangdong platinum - London platinum: The current value is 25.65, the previous value is 19.79, with a rise of 29.62%. [5] - Guangdong platinum - NYMEX platinum: The current value is 23.40, the previous value is 18.03, with a rise of 29.77%. [5] - Guangdong palladium - London palladium: The current value is 27.77, the previous value is 26.35, with a rise of 5.39%. [5] - Guangdong palladium - NYMEX palladium: The current value is 15.17, the previous value is 14.12, with a rise of 7.44%. [5] Platinum - Palladium Price Ratio - Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium price ratio: The current value is 1.3071, the previous value is 1.2895, with a change of 0.0176. [5] - London spot platinum/palladium price ratio: The current value is 1.3310, the previous value is 1.3228, with a change of 0.0083. [5] Inventory (ounces) - NYMEX platinum inventory: The current value is 652841, the previous value is 652841, with a change of 0.00%. [5] - NYMEX palladium inventory: The current value is 210029, the previous value is 650012 (data may be lagged), with a change of 0.00%. [5] Positions - NYMEX total platinum position: The current value is 82836, the previous value is 90330, with a decline of 8.30%. [5] - NYMEX non - commercial net long platinum position: The current value is 18042, the previous value is 19343, with a decline of 6.73%. [5] - NYMEX total palladium position: The current value is 20593, the previous value is 22709, with a decline of 9.32%. [5] - NYMEX non - commercial net long palladium position: The current value is - 571, the previous value is 122, with a decline of 568.03%. [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 6, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.27% to 1,004.98 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 7.06% to 19,452 yuan/kilogram [6]. - After the escalation of the US - Venezuela situation and Trump's radical statements, geopolitical risks and the tight supply of silver spot have driven up the prices of precious metals. In the short term, precious metal prices are expected to remain strong, but there are still potential risks. Investors are advised to control their positions [6]. - In the long - term, the Fed is still in an easing cycle, geopolitical uncertainties are high, and the credit risk of the US dollar is increasing. The demand for precious metal allocation by central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue. The long - term price of gold is likely to rise, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On January 6, 2026, compared with January 5, London gold spot price was 4,466.61 dollars/ounce (up 1.0%), London silver spot price was 78.96 dollars/ounce (up 4.7%), COMEX gold price was 4,476.70 dollars/ounce (up 1.1%), COMEX silver price was 78.76 dollars/ounce (up 4.7%), AU2602 was 1,004.98 yuan/gram (up 1.0%), AG2602 was 19,457.00 yuan/kilogram (up 6.6%), AU (T + D) was 1,002.30 yuan/gram (up 1.0%), and AG (T + D) was 19,468.00 yuan/kilogram (up 6.4%) [3]. - **Price Spreads/Ratios**: From January 5 to January 6, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price decreased by 7.6%, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price decreased by 69.4%, the spread of gold TD - London decreased by 9.5%, the spread of silver TD - London decreased by 30.6%, the SHFE gold - silver main ratio decreased by 5.2%, the COMEX gold - silver main ratio decreased by 3.4%, the spread of AU2604 - 2602 increased by 5.2%, and the spread of AG2604 - 2602 decreased by 61.5% [3]. 2. Position Data - From January 2 to January 5, gold ETF - SPDR remained unchanged at 1,065.13 tons, silver ETF - SLV decreased by 0.55% to 16,353.59541 tons. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions decreased by 5.02% to 275,592 contracts, non - commercial short positions decreased by 10.19% to 44,419 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions decreased by 3.96% to 231,173 contracts. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions decreased by 8.57% to 50,506 contracts, non - commercial short positions increased by 5.60% to 20,443 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions decreased by 16.22% to 30,063 contracts [3]. 3. Inventory Data - From January 5 to January 6, SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 97,704 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 13.16% to 581,436 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory increased slightly (0.00%) to 36,403,452 ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.06% to 449,521,788 ounces [3]. 4. Other Market Data - From January 5 to January 6, the US dollar index decreased by 0.08%, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate remained unchanged at 7.02, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.29% to 3.46%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.48% to 4.17%, VIX increased by 2.69% to 14.90, the S&P 500 increased by 0.64% to 6,902.05, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 1.78% to 58.35 [5].

Summary of Cobalt Market Outlook and Key Insights Industry Overview - The cobalt market is experiencing significant changes due to supply constraints and increasing demand driven by technology sectors such as 3C products and AR glasses. [1][3] Supply and Demand Projections - **Global Supply**: In 2025, global refined cobalt supply is expected to decrease by 11% to 228,000 tons, but is projected to recover to 239,000 tons in 2026. [1][2] - **Global Demand**: Demand for cobalt is anticipated to grow by 9.4% in 2025 to 242,000 tons, reaching 251,000 tons in 2026, although the growth rate is expected to slow. [1][3] - **China's Supply**: China's refined cobalt supply is expected to decrease by 8.6% to 151,800 tons in 2025, with a recovery to 193,500 tons in 2026. [1][4] - **China's Demand**: China's demand for refined cobalt is projected to grow by 20% in 2025 to 193,000 tons, reaching 202,600 tons in 2026, driven by the aging population and health economy. [1][4] Impact of Congo's Export Policies - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has implemented strict export controls, leading to a 31% decline in global raw material supply in 2025. [5][11] - The DRC's policies have resulted in a significant reduction in imports of wet intermediate products and a notable increase in MHP imports, while imports of products like cobalt tetroxide have decreased. [6][11] - The DRC's export quota for 2026-2027 is limited to 96,600 tons, exacerbating supply constraints. [5][11] Price Trends - Prices for cobalt salts have seen significant increases, with intermediate prices rising by 112% from 2024 to 2025. [9] - Cobalt sulfate prices increased from 29,900 CNY/ton to 55,900 CNY/ton, while cobalt chloride rose from 36,800 CNY/ton to 67,800 CNY/ton. [9] - The price of refined cobalt is expected to reach new highs, with projections of 350,000 to 600,000 CNY/ton. [8] Market Dynamics - The cobalt market is expected to face a supply shortage of approximately 12,000 tons in 2026, with global refined cobalt supply at 249,000 tons and demand at 251,000 tons. [2][12] - MHP projects and recycling materials are anticipated to be the main sources of supply growth, contributing over 20% to the market. [13] Regional Insights - Indonesia's share in raw material supply is expected to increase to around 27% in 2026, with new projects expected to come online. [2][14] - The Chinese market is projected to maintain strong demand, particularly in the battery sector, driven by the growth of 3C products. [4][32] Challenges and Opportunities - The cobalt industry faces challenges from geopolitical risks and policy changes, which may lead to price volatility. [8][11] - Despite the challenges, the demand for cobalt in aerospace and military applications remains stable, providing a buffer against market fluctuations. [8] Conclusion - The cobalt market is navigating a complex landscape of supply constraints, rising demand, and significant price fluctuations, with the DRC's export policies playing a crucial role in shaping future dynamics. [1][5][11]

汇通财经APP讯——在全球地缘政治紧张局势急剧升温的背景下，黄金作为传统避险资产的表现异常亮 眼。周二，现货黄金价格延续了前一交易日的涨势，进一步上涨约1%，收盘于4494美元每盎司。周三 （1月7日）亚市早盘，现货黄金高位震荡，截止07:30，一度触及4500.27美元/盎司，这一价格水平已经 非常接近去年12月24日创下的4549.71美元每盎司的历史最高纪录。与此同时，2月交割的美国黄金期货 也上涨1%，收报4496.10美元每盎司。黄金价格的这一波上涨，主要源于投资者对全球不确定性的担忧 大幅增加，特别是周末美国对委内瑞拉的军事行动引发了广泛的避险情绪，推动资金大量流入贵金属市 场。 KitcoMetals公司高级分析师Jim Wyckoff指出，当前贵金属交易者比股票和债券市场的参与者更敏锐地 感知到风险的存在。他强调，美国周末对委内瑞拉总统马杜罗的突袭行动，进一步刺激了对黄金和白银 的持续避险需求。这反映出市场对地缘政治事件的敏感反应，正在直接转化为对黄金的强劲买入力量。 上周末，美国军方在委内瑞拉首都加拉加斯展开突袭行动，成功逮捕了该国总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗，并 将其押送至纽约。周一，马杜罗在法庭 ...

近期委内瑞拉总统马杜罗被美军抓捕并押送至美国受审，为全球市场增添新的地缘政治风险。思博瑞投 资管理指，总括而言，尽管委内瑞拉政治动荡带来新的不确定性，其对全球市场的实时影响仍属有限。 然而，任何局势升级皆可能加剧投资者不安情绪，增加市场波动性。目前市场焦点仍较集中于核心驱动 因素，包括美国货币政策、通胀走势与科技创新进程。 委内瑞拉政治动荡对拉丁美洲及全球地缘政治具有更广泛的影响。特朗普政府的迅速行动可能提升美国 在区内的政治话语权。随着拉丁美洲多国关键选举定于2026年举行，委内瑞拉过渡进程的成败，将决定 邻国政治右倾格局会否加速发展。整体而言，近期事件并未改变对区内主要国家的观点，但特朗普对哥 伦比亚政权的相关言论确实值得关注。 对投资者而言，委内瑞拉局势凸显了保持投资组合多元化及持续监察地缘政治风险的重要性。受AI等 乐观情绪及稳健的企业盈利推动，股票等增长资产需求依然旺盛，而由于市场尚未对重大军事升级或国 防支出增长进行定价，债券收益率预计将保持稳定。 虽然目前直接影响主要集中在黄金及美元等特定资产类别，但对大宗商品、区域政治及全球权力格局的 更广泛影响值得持续关注。 委内瑞拉的政治剧变推动金价上涨近 ...

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices have significantly declined due to geopolitical tensions, particularly following the U.S. military actions against Venezuela, which have raised concerns about market supply and investor sentiment [3][4]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - On January 7, international oil prices fell sharply, with New York crude oil down by 2.12% to $55.916 per barrel and Brent crude oil down by 2.06% to $60.49 per barrel [1]. - The geopolitical tensions have led to fluctuations in oil prices, with a notable increase in prices prior to the recent decline [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Analysts from various European market institutions have indicated that U.S. military actions against Venezuela could exacerbate geopolitical uncertainties, impacting oil market supply and risk expectations [3]. - The current geopolitical risks, including trade tensions and Middle Eastern conflicts, are significantly affecting market psychology and investment decisions [3]. Group 3: Venezuela's Oil Production Outlook - The impact on the oil market largely depends on the extent to which Venezuela's oil production can be increased, given its status as having the largest proven oil reserves globally [4]. - Despite its vast reserves, Venezuela's oil production has been declining for decades, and sanctions have limited its supply to approximately 500,000 barrels per day by late December 2025 [3].

前言： 这个市场从来不缺投资者，因为它本身的利润会不断地吸引一批又一批的有钱人进来。市场的法则就是 胜者为王，败者为寇。它在不断淘汰那些投机的人、那些不把规则当回事、不严格律已、不止损止盈、 不适仓操作、不风险控制、不调整心态的人。这个世界永远只有百分之二十的人起到关键作用，剩余的 百分之八十就是衬托和服务于这百分之二十的人。你的投资生活前半生我没有参与，后半生我不会缺席 这边提供最优惠的福利，最稳定的平台，最优秀的服务指导，陪您走过这投资道路。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 市场参与者密切关注即将公布的美国经济数据，特别是周五的非农就业报告，预计12月份新增就业岗位 约6万个，略低于前月水平。这将为美联储的利率路径提供重要线索。目前，交易商普遍预期美联储今 年将实施两次降息。里奇蒙联储主席巴尔金表示，货币政策需要根据数据进行精细调整，以平衡失业和 通胀风险。摩根士丹利则预测，到今年第四季度，黄金价格可能升至4800美元每盎司，主要原因是利率 下降、美联储领导层变动以及央行和基金的强劲购买需求。瑞银财富管理专家指出，中央银行购买、财 政赤字增加、更低利率以及持续地缘风险，将推动黄 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks are escalating globally, leading to an upward trend in resource prices. Precious metals, copper, and other commodities are showing strong performance. The market is influenced by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, Fed's monetary policy expectations, and supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][5]. - In the short term, most commodity prices are expected to maintain a volatile or upward - trending pattern, but there are also risks such as capital outflows and weak demand in some sectors [6][10][15]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Geopolitical risks from events like the US' strategic intervention in Greenland and the situation in Venezuela are driving up precious metal prices. Silver has set a new high. The long - term outlook for precious metals remains positive, but short - term price fluctuations will be intense [3][4]. - On Tuesday, COMEX gold futures rose 1.22% to $4505.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 5.95% to $81.22 per ounce [3]. Copper - Dovish voices suggest that the Fed may cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year. The copper price is oscillating upwards. Although the spot market trading is sluggish and inventories are rising, supply disruptions from strikes in Chile and a tight supply - demand balance are expected to keep the copper price at a high level in the short term [5][6]. - On Tuesday, the Shanghai copper main contract continued its strong upward trend, and LME copper broke through $13,000 without showing signs of adjustment [5]. Aluminum - The aluminum price is strongly influenced by short - term capital and sentiment. Although the supply - demand fundamentals show an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, in the context of the Fed's expected interest - rate cut cycle, capital continues to flow into the aluminum market, leading to a strong performance of the aluminum price [7]. - On Tuesday, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,395 yuan/ton, up 3.26% [7]. Alumina - The alumina spot price is still weak, but due to the expectation of maintenance and production cuts by loss - making enterprises after the execution of long - term contracts in January and the overall strength of the non - ferrous sector, the alumina futures have rebounded. However, the rebound may limit the scale of production cuts [8]. - On Tuesday, the alumina futures main contract closed at 2,818 yuan/ton, up 0.9% [8]. Cast Aluminum - The continuous sharp rise in copper and aluminum prices has pushed up the cost of recycled aluminum raw materials, driving up the spot price of cast aluminum. Although the demand is weak, the inflow of capital has supported the cast aluminum price to be strong recently [9]. - On Tuesday, the cast aluminum alloy futures main contract closed at 22,995 yuan/ton, up 2.29% [9]. Zinc - Driven by capital, the zinc price has continued to rise. The geopolitical conflict has brought resource premiums, and the price hitting a nearly 10 - year high in China has boosted capital's enthusiasm for long - positions. However, the fundamentals are mixed, and chasing the rise requires caution [10]. - On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc main contract 2602 continued its strong intraday trend and oscillated at a high level at night [10]. Lead - With the market maintaining a bullish atmosphere, the rise of LME lead has driven up the Shanghai lead price. The supply - demand is weak on both sides, but the low inventory provides support. The lead price is expected to continue to rise slowly in the short term [11]. - On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead main contract 2602 moved up during the day and continued to rise at night [11]. Tin - In the context of resource risk premiums, capital enthusiasm has pushed the tin price back to a strong level. Although the raw material supply disturbances have eased, the seasonal decline in Indonesian refined tin exports and the reduction in domestic supply in January support the price. However, the downstream demand is weak, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [13]. - On Tuesday, the Shanghai tin main contract 2602 rose strongly during the day and continued to rise at night [12]. Industrial Silicon - The market sentiment is high, and the industrial silicon price has rebounded. The supply is marginally shrinking, and the demand is also weak. The overall inventory has slightly decreased, and the futures price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation in the short term [14][15]. - On Tuesday, the industrial silicon main contract rebounded slightly [14]. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - The supply - demand of steel is in a weak balance. The off - season demand suppresses the price, while inventory reduction provides support. With positive macro - expectations, the steel price is expected to oscillate and rise in the short term [16]. - On Tuesday, steel futures rose. The trading volume of steel in the spot market was 96,000 tons [16]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price is supported by the expectation of pre - holiday restocking. Although the supply is abundant due to the year - end shipping rush by overseas miners, the change in the South American situation has worried the market about supply, leading to an oscillating rebound of the futures price [17][18]. - On Tuesday, iron ore futures rose. The trading volume of iron ore in the spot market was 1.33 million tons [17]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - The fundamentals lack strong drivers. The decline in raw coal prices has narrowed, supporting the coke price, and the downstream procurement demand has recovered. After the holiday, coal mine production has increased slightly. The steel mills' procurement is still cautious, and the double - coking price is expected to oscillate and rebound [19]. - On Tuesday, double - coking futures rebounded [19]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - South American weather is favorable for crop growth, maintaining the expectation of a bumper harvest. The US soybean export sales progress is slow, and the external market is under pressure. The trading volume of soybean meal has increased, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [20][21]. - On Tuesday, the soybean meal 05 contract rose 1.09% to 2,776 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract rose 1.06% to 2,390 yuan/ton [20]. Palm Oil - The palm oil price is waiting for the guidance of the MPOB report. The production in Malaysia in early January decreased significantly, while exports improved moderately. With positive macro - sentiment and weak oil prices, the palm oil price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [22][23]. - On Tuesday, the palm oil 05 contract rose 0.09% to 8,500 yuan/ton [22].

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 委内瑞拉事件影响深远，部分国家局势紧张，地缘溢价交易继续，流动性风险偏好 | | 黄金 | 长线持有 | 尚可。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战 | | ★★ | | 略配置价值不变。 | | | | COMEX 近月合约再现多头交割拿货、资源紧张预期等因素影响白银大涨，长期降息 | | 白银 | 长期持有 | 持续、供需缺口连续 5 年持续，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，另外资源交易也是 | | ★★ | | 2026 年一大主题，长期做多逻辑不变。关注海外市场调仓风险 | | | | 全球地缘剧变，南美铜资源或成为地缘博弈筹码，加剧全球铜供应扭曲和紊乱，宏 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 观情绪叠加海外铜矿扰动，铜短期强势运行，但也要警惕情绪消退后铜高位回落风 | | ★ | | 险，中长期对铜依旧看好。 | | 锌 | | 宏观和板块情绪积极叠加供应预期收缩，支撑锌价走高。短期宏观情绪占据主导， | | | 反弹 | 需警惕宏观情绪消退后，锌高位回落风险。建议多单及时 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Report Core Views Copper - The medium - to long - term fundamentals of copper are still good, with capital expenditure constraints on the supply side supporting a gradual upward shift in the bottom center. However, in the short term, the sharp rise in prices has significantly suppressed real terminal demand, and the current copper price is overvalued to some extent. But in a macro - environment with high speculative sentiment and risk appetite, the short - term price may remain strong. The volatility of Shanghai copper options remains high, and short - term price fluctuations may intensify, with the main focus on the 99,000 - 100,000 support level [2]. Zinc - Affected by the Venezuela event, the zinc price continued to be strong. Domestic zinc concentrate production is in a reduction season, and the supply of domestic zinc ore is tight. The import window for zinc ore has opened, which may relieve the short - term supply pressure. The supply pressure of refined zinc has eased, and downstream demand has shown good performance. In the future, the price will be supported by tight domestic zinc ore and low zinc ingot inventory, and pressured by the expected supply of imported ore. The short - term price will fluctuate strongly in a warm macro - atmosphere, and attention should be paid to import profit and loss, TC inflection points, and refined zinc inventory changes [6]. Nickel - Due to the resonance of supply - side contraction expectations and geopolitical risks, the nickel price rose sharply. The spot of Jinchuan nickel resources is still tight, and the spot premium remains high. The price of nickel iron has a stronger bottom support, but the terminal demand is weak. Overall, the short - term disk is expected to remain strong, with the main contract expected to run in the 142,000 - 152,000 range [8]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel disk was affected by raw - material disturbances and rose. The spot resources are generally tight, and the market sentiment is boosted by the expected tightening of the nickel ore market. The supply - side pressure has eased slightly, but the demand in the off - season is still insufficient. The short - term disk is expected to remain strong, with the main contract expected to run in the 13,500 - 14,200 range [9]. Tin - The tin price rose strongly. On the supply side, the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is expected to accelerate, and the export of tin ingots from Indonesia has basically completed the annual target. The safety situation in Congo (Kinshasa) may affect tin production. On the demand side, the tin - soldering enterprises in South China show certain resilience, while those in East China are more restricted. The short - term price is mainly affected by macro factors [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate disk continued to rise rapidly. The market's expectation of supply disturbances has been strengthened, and the supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream demand maintains a certain resilience, but the orders in the power market have declined. The short - term disk is expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to liquidity risks and regulatory possibilities [16]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy price followed the aluminum price and continued to reach new highs, but the spot - market trading was light. The cost is the main driving factor, and the market is in a tight - balance state with both supply and demand weak. The ADC12 price is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22,600 - 23,600 yuan/ton [18]. Aluminum - The aluminum oxide disk fluctuated widely, and the spot trading was light at the end of the year. The policy has stimulated the supply - side contraction expectation, but the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed. The aluminum oxide price is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry's cash - cost line and may follow the aluminum price to rise emotionally in the future. The aluminum price is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock in the short term, with the main contract of Shanghai aluminum expected to run in the 23,800 - 24,800 yuan/ton range [21]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial - silicon price was affected by the news of the organic - silicon monomer factory meeting. The 1 - month industrial silicon is expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand. The demand may decline, and the export may increase. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [22]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is firm, and the futures price rose and then fell. The upstream hopes to drive the price increase of the entire industry chain by holding up the price, but the downstream demand is weak. In January, the demand has no bright spots, and the price may rise while the volume falls. The polysilicon price will remain in a high - level shock, and attention should be paid to the production - reduction efforts or price - decline pressure [24]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 3.07% to 103,665 yuan/ton, and the price of SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper increased by 3.58% to 103,815 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of various copper types and related indicators such as refined - scrap spread, LME 0 - 3, and import profit and loss have changed to varying degrees [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the electrolytic copper production was 117.81 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.80%. In November, the electrolytic copper import volume was 27.11 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.90%. The inventory of various types has also changed [2]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 1.54% to 23,970 yuan/ton, and the premium and discount and other indicators have changed [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the refined zinc production was 55.21 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.24%. In November, the refined zinc import volume was 1.82 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22%, and the export volume increased significantly. The operating rates of related industries and inventory levels have also changed [6]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 3.84% to 143,450 yuan/ton, and the premium and discount of various nickel products and other indicators have changed [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, China's refined nickel production was 33,342 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.38%. In November, the refined nickel import volume was 12,671 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.08%. The inventory of various types has also changed [8]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) increased by 0.76% to 13,300 yuan/ton, and the prices of raw materials and month - to - month spreads have changed [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 178.70 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72%. The import and export volumes of stainless steel have also changed, and the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel has decreased slightly [9]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 2.85% to 341,050 yuan/ton, and the premium and discount, import profit and loss, and month - to - month spreads have changed [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the tin ore import volume was 15,099 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81%. In December, the SMM refined tin production was 15,950 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06%. The inventory of various types has decreased to varying degrees [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 6.69% to 127,500 yuan/ton, and the prices of related lithium products and spreads have changed [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the lithium carbonate production was 99,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.04%. The demand decreased by 2.50%, and the inventory of various types has decreased [16]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 1.73% to 23,500 yuan/ton, and the price differences between refined and scrap aluminum and month - to - month spreads have changed [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 68.20 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.74%. The operating rates of related industries and inventory levels have also changed [18]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 2.57% to 23,910 yuan/ton, and the prices of alumina and related indicators such as import profit and loss and month - to - month spreads have changed [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the alumina production was 751.96 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.08%. The production of domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum increased, and the inventory of various types has changed [21]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton, and the month - to - month spreads have changed significantly [22]. - **Fundamental Data**: The national industrial silicon production was 39.71 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15%. The production and operating rates in different regions and the production of related downstream products have changed, and the inventory has increased slightly [22]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 increased by 0.47% to 53,500 yuan/kg, and the futures price and month - to - month spreads have changed [24]. - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly and monthly production of polysilicon and silicon wafers, import and export volumes, and inventory levels have all changed [24].