各央行依然对黄金青睐有加。 世界黄金协会6月17日发布的《2025年全球央行黄金储备调查》（CBGR）数据显示，逾九成（95%）的受访 央行认为，未来12个月内全球央行将继续增持黄金。这一比例创下自2019年首次针对该问题进行调查以来的 最高纪录，同时也较2024年的调查结果上升了17个百分点。 《2025年全球央行黄金储备调查》共收集了来自全球73家央行的回应，创下历年参与央行数量新高。调查还 发现， 近43%的央行计划在未来一年内增加自身黄金储备。 据介绍，即便金价屡创新高，且全球央行已连续 15年净购入黄金，各央行依然对黄金青睐有加。 经济与地缘政治不确定性持续存在，对各央行策略产生影响，黄金将继续作为避险资产用以对冲风险。 调查 显示，当前央行持金的三大主要动机为：黄金长期的价值储存功能（80%）、有效实现投资组合多样化的手段 （81%）以及危机时期的表现（85%）。 谈及黄金在未来储备组合中的份额，新兴市场和发展中经济体央行依旧抱持积极态度。调查显示，58家受访 新兴市场和发展中经济体央行中，有28家（占比48%）预计其黄金储备将在未来12个月内增加，而持相同观 点的发达经济体央行比例为21%，两者 ...

王爷说财经讯：2025年差不多快过完一半，而全球资本市场收益也公布！美元暴跌10%，其他避险资产却出现不同程度上涨，不过，有一个终极避险资产 ——黄金今年狂涨30％还没停！ 那么今年黄金为何持续大涨？背后逻辑是什么？ 另外，接下来，黄金价格走势又会如何？今天就和大家一起来聊聊这个话题！ 01、今年已暴涨30%！黄金完胜其他避险资产！ 6月17日消息，虽然2025年才过一半，不过，有一个资产今年却是暴涨了30%，而且还没停！ 没错，它就是黄金！ 最新数据显示，今年以来，现货黄金价格已经飙涨了30%，直接完胜其他避险资产——日元、瑞士法郎和美债。 作为一个对比，今年以来，美元指数下跌近10%。同一期间，日元和瑞士法郎兑美元分别升值约8%和10%。今年以来，美国10年期美债利率下跌约19个基 点。 所以，黄金再次向世人证明：谁才是真正的"终极避险资产"。 02、为何黄金如此受欢迎？ 如王爷说财经之前就报道过，最近几个月以来，黄金价格屡屡创下新高。 今年以来，现货金价格已上涨约30%，来到约3403.09美元，4月时更曾一度涨破3500美元大关。 从关税和经济的不确定性，乃至于现在以色列-伊朗爆发新冲突导致中东紧张局 ...

Core Insights - The recent geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran have led to surprising market reactions, with gold prices falling and U.S. Treasury yields rising, indicating a "risk-on" environment [1] - Historical data suggests that oil prices often anticipate conflicts and that significant increases in oil prices are required to trigger a recession in the West [2] - The S&P 500 index typically experiences a short-term decline following geopolitical shocks but tends to recover fully within a few weeks [4] Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices have decreased while U.S. Treasury yields have increased, reflecting a shift towards riskier assets [1] - The performance of stocks relative to long-term bonds has reached its strongest level since Trump's inauguration [1] - Oil prices have not surged despite the conflict, remaining significantly lower than their January peak [1] Group 2: Historical Context - Historical patterns indicate that oil prices need to double to potentially cause a recession, with current prices far below this threshold [2] - The S&P 500 index has historically shown resilience, with a median recovery time of 16 trading days after geopolitical events [4] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Experts warn against complacency in the market, highlighting the potential for tail risks, including Iran's nuclear capabilities [5] - Probability analyses suggest varying outcomes from the conflict, with a notable risk of Iran achieving nuclear armament [5] Group 4: Bitcoin's Performance - Bitcoin has demonstrated characteristics of a safe-haven asset during the crisis, outperforming gold [6][8] - The perception of Bitcoin as a strategic asset is growing, influenced by regulatory developments and institutional interest [8]

智通财经APP注意到，黄金重夺避险资产王冠。2025年迄今现货价格飙升30%的走势，使其涨幅远超日元、瑞士法郎和美国国债等传统避险资产——在财政 可持续性担忧和战争阴云笼罩下，这迫使投资者重新思考何为真正的安全港湾。 周一在亚太贵金属年会上接受采访的市场专家指出，黄金的核心吸引力在于其脱离政府负债的属性。 "黄金的关键优势在于它不构成任何主体的债务责任，" Metals Focus董事总经理尼科斯·卡瓦利斯表示，"当投资者持有国债、其他主权债券甚至货币时，他 们本质上是在买入对应经济体的信用。" 相比之下，金价已连续数月刷新历史高位。现货黄金年内上涨约30%，当前报每盎司3403.09美元(4月曾突破3500美元)。世界黄金理事会央行全球负责人 Shaokai Fan指出："市场越来越不确定美元和美债市场的未来，这推动了对黄金等替代避险资产的兴趣。" 其他典型避险资产今年表现如下：衡量美元兑一篮子货币汇率的美元指数年内下跌近10%；同期日元和瑞郎兑美元分别升值约8%和10%；基准10年期美债收 益率下降约19个基点(债券价格与收益率反向变动)。 尽管美元和美债历来是金融安全的堡垒，但裂痕已然显现。4月特朗普" ...

Group 1 - The recent decline in gold prices is surprising given the prevailing global uncertainties, which typically drive investors towards gold as a safe haven asset [1][3] - Despite expectations for gold prices to rise above $2000 per ounce following the Federal Reserve's continued interest rate hikes, market sentiment has shifted, leading to a decrease in gold demand [3][5] - Investors are increasingly favoring higher returns from U.S. Treasury bonds, especially as the 10-year Treasury yield surpasses 3.5%, resulting in a significant outflow of funds from the gold market [5][7] Group 2 - The easing of pandemic restrictions in domestic markets has led to a recovery in economic activity and consumer confidence, prompting investors to shift their focus towards equities, particularly in high-risk sectors like technology and renewable energy [5][7] - The current performance of the gold market reflects a change in investor perception of risk, as gold is losing its appeal when market sentiment favors stocks and bonds [7] - The lack of a significant crisis has contributed to gold being perceived as less attractive, raising questions about whether investors are overly reliant on the expectation of rising gold prices while neglecting deeper market dynamics [7]

10年期美国国债收益率今日上行3个基点至4.43%，表现逊于德国同类债券。交易员削减了对美联储降 息的押注，预计年底前降息幅度为46个基点，而上周五为49个基点。经济学家表示，市场波动剧烈，投 资者涌向避险资产并推高原油价格。这可能导致10年期美国国债收益率进一步上升。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 16, the JM2509 contract closed at 795.5, up 2.84%. The spot price of Meng 5 raw coal was reported at 708. The coking coal mine capacity utilization rate has declined for 5 consecutive weeks, the cumulative import growth rate has decreased, there are signs of marginal improvement in supply, and the clean coal inventory continues to increase. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On June 16, the J2509 contract closed at 1371.0, up 1.90%. The third round of coke price cut has been implemented. In the first five months of 2025, China's imports and exports to the five Central Asian countries reached 286.42 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%, reaching a record high for the same period. Fundamentally, there are signs of marginal improvement in raw material supply, and the hot metal output has declined from a high level. In terms of profit, the average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide this period is 46 yuan/ton. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 795.50 yuan/ton, up 21.00 yuan [2]. - J main contract closing price: 1371.00 yuan/ton, up 21.50 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract holding volume: 717,718.00 hands, up 28,840.00 hands [2]. - J futures contract holding volume: 55,902.00 hands, down 1,318.00 hands [2]. - Net holding volume of the top 20 JM contracts: - 22,629.00 hands, down 2,410.00 hands [2]. - Net holding volume of the top 20 J contracts: 96.00 hands, down 265.00 hands [2]. - JM 1 - 9 month contract spread: 15.00 yuan/ton, up 1.50 yuan [2]. - J 1 - 9 month contract spread: 21.50 yuan/ton, up 4.50 yuan [2]. - JM main contract basis: 184.50 yuan/ton, down 21.00 yuan [2]. - J main contract basis: 74.00 yuan/ton, down 21.50 yuan [2]. Spot Market - Dry Qimantage Meng 5 raw coal: 708.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR): 116.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal: 1,140.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal: 1,230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal: 980.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 980.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tangshan quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,445.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,370.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - Raw coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants (weekly): 3.3613 million tons, up 87,200 tons [2]. - Clean coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants (weekly): 2.5147 million tons, up 64,100 tons [2]. - Operating rate of 110 coal washing plants (weekly): 57.36%, down 3.23 percentage points [2]. - Raw coal output (monthly): 40.328 million tons, up 1.3974 million tons [2]. - Coal and lignite import volume (monthly): 3.604 million tons, down 179,000 tons [2]. - Daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines: 187,800 tons, down 2,100 tons [2]. - Imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports (weekly): 5.4473 million tons, down 10,000 tons [2]. - Coking coal total inventory of independent coking enterprises (full sample, weekly): 7.9807 million tons, down 208,500 tons [2]. - Coking coal available days of independent coking enterprises (full sample, weekly): 12.32 days, up 0.06 days [2]. - Coking coal import volume (monthly): 0.88934 million tons, up 25,970 tons [2]. - Coking coal output (monthly): 3.92616 million tons, down 235,310 tons [2]. Industry Situation - Coke inventory at 18 ports (weekly): 2.5869 million tons, down 81,600 tons [2]. - Coke inventory of independent coking enterprises (full sample, weekly): 1.2571 million tons, down 13,000 tons [2]. - Coke inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide (weekly): 6.4284 million tons, down 29,600 tons [2]. - Coke available days of 247 sample steel mills (weekly): 11.62 days, up 0.04 days [2]. - Coke and semi - coke export volume (monthly): 0.00 tons, down 55,000 tons [2]. - Capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises (weekly): 73.96%, down 1.40 percentage points [2]. - Profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants (weekly): - 46.00 yuan/ton, down 27.00 yuan/ton [2]. - Coke output (monthly): 4.238 million tons, up 78,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly): 83.39%, down 0.15 percentage points [2]. - Blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly): 90.56%, down 0.07 percentage points [2]. - Crude steel output (monthly): 8.655 million tons, up 53,100 tons [2]. Industry News - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have sharply increased. Gold prices have risen, but the increase is often short - term and impulsive. In the medium and long term, factors such as the repeated US tariff policies, the expansion of the US fiscal gap, and the weakening of the US dollar and US Treasury bond credit are driving the upward trend of gold prices [2]. - At the end of May, the broad money (M2) balance was 325.78 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. The narrow money (M1) balance was 108.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.3% [2]. - The "Implementation Plan for the Special Action to Boost Consumption in Guangzhou (Draft for Comment)" is open for comments, which mentions optimizing real estate policies, completely canceling purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, and price restrictions, and reducing the down - payment ratio and interest rate of loans [2].

印度金银珠宝协会副会长Aksha Kamboj称："由于以色列和伊朗之间的紧张局势持续存在，金价正在攀 升，目前还看不到明确的解决方案。"她指出，虽然黄金在目前的水平上可能出现一些获利了结，但地 缘政治风险和即将召开的美联储会议可能会使其价格保持高位。 在今年之前，黄金、美元和美国国债长期以来一直是投资者在地缘政治紧张或市场压力时期寻求的主要 避风港。甚至在特朗普去年11月当选之前，他在竞选期间对关税的强硬言论就已促使全球投资者涌入黄 金，作为美元储备之外的多元化选择。 据道琼斯市场数据，最活跃的黄金期货合约上周五收于创纪录的3452.80美元，为今年第24次刷新历史 高点。相比之下，自4月关税动荡以来，"抛售美国"交易的担忧笼罩全球市场。美元指数上周五上涨 0.3%，但年初至今仍下跌9.5%。 美国国债面临的压力源于对美国政府巨额债务负担的关注，以及共和党税收和支出法案下的近期财政赤 字预测——该法案目前已提交参议院。由投资策略师迈克尔·哈特尼特（Michael Hartnett）领导的美国 银行全球研究团队称，美国36万亿美元国债的利息支付每年超过1万亿美元。 随着以伊冲突驱动的中东局势新一轮升温刺激了避 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent conflict between Israel and Iran is likely to lead to a sustained sell-off in U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly the 10-year bonds, as historical patterns suggest similar outcomes in past conflicts [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Since the escalation of tensions last Friday, the yield on U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury bonds has increased by 9 basis points, driven by rising oil prices and heightened inflation concerns [1] - Historical analysis indicates that during previous conflicts, such as the direct attack by Iran in April 2024 and the renewed conflict in October last year, U.S. Treasury yields also rose sharply and remained elevated for about 30 days [1] Group 2: Investor Behavior - Market volatility is prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets, which is contributing to the increase in oil prices and may further push up the 10-year Treasury yields [1] - Current geopolitical tensions, combined with ongoing trade wars initiated by former President Trump, are exacerbating inflation worries and worsening the U.S. debt situation [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - As tensions in the Middle East impact energy prices, market traders may continue to demand higher risk premiums, potentially leading to further increases in Treasury yields [1]

Group 1 - Iran launched a significant retaliatory attack against Israel, firing hundreds of ballistic missiles after Israel's preemptive strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, marking a new escalation in the conflict [1][2][6] - The U.S. military assisted in intercepting and shooting down Iranian missiles, indicating heightened military involvement in the region [1] - Global markets reacted negatively, with the Dow Jones dropping over 700 points and WTI crude oil prices surging by more than 13%, the largest increase since March 2022 [1] Group 2 - Israel's operation involved 200 fighter jets and over 330 munitions targeting Iranian nuclear sites, which Israeli officials described as a decisive moment in their national history [2] - The Israeli government has stated that the operation will continue for several days, indicating a prolonged military engagement [2] - Iran's military reported that at least 200 missiles entered Israeli airspace, with dozens hitting strategic targets [7][8] Group 3 - The oil market is experiencing significant volatility, with traders hesitant to short oil prices amid geopolitical uncertainty, reminiscent of the oil crisis of the 1970s [10][12] - There is speculation about Iran potentially blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping route, which could severely disrupt global oil supply [11] - The demand for oil options surged, with a record number of call options being purchased, reflecting market fears of escalating conflict [13][14] Group 4 - Traditional safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds did not exhibit the expected flight to safety, with the dollar initially declining before a slight recovery [15][18] - In contrast, gold prices surged past $3,400, and significant inflows were observed in military and gold ETFs, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards commodities [18][20] - The global gold ETF market saw a net outflow of $1.8 billion in May, but the recent geopolitical tensions may lead to renewed interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [22]