Group 1 - Gold prices reached a historical high, with spot gold touching $3546.919 per ounce and COMEX futures rising to $3616.9 per ounce, driven by renewed concerns over the Federal Reserve and increased demand for safe-haven assets [1] - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by over one-third, making it one of the best-performing major commodities, with geopolitical and economic risks contributing to the rising demand for gold and silver [1] - The market is awaiting a significant court ruling regarding President Trump's potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook, which could impact the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][2] Group 2 - Analysts predict that international gold prices will continue to rise, with Deutsche Bank forecasting gold to reach $3600 per ounce by the end of next year, and Morgan Stanley setting an even higher target of $3800 per ounce [4] - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve is seen as a catalyst for a new upward trend in gold prices, as the dollar's safety is increasingly questioned [4] - The trend of central banks purchasing gold instead of holding dollar reserves is expected to accelerate, driving long-term demand for gold [4]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices surged over 1% on September 2, breaking the historical high of $3,500 per ounce, driven by investor demand for safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainty [1][2] - Year-to-date, gold has seen a cumulative increase of 34.5%, significantly outperforming other asset classes [1][2] - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to heightened expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a 90% probability of this occurring according to CME FedWatch [2][3] Group 2: U.S. Manufacturing Sector - The U.S. manufacturing sector has been in contraction for six consecutive months, with the PMI rising slightly from 48.0 to 48.7 in August, still below the neutral 50 mark [2] - Manufacturing accounts for approximately 10.2% of the U.S. economy, and its weakness is impacting employment, investment, and consumption [2] - Factory construction spending fell by 6.7% year-on-year in July, indicating a cooling investment sentiment in the manufacturing sector [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have increased following President Trump's dismissal of a Fed board member, contributing to a rise in safe-haven buying [3] - The market is closely monitoring upcoming economic data releases, including non-farm payrolls and inflation reports, which could influence Fed policy and gold prices [5] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies and tariffs is expected to continue affecting investor sentiment and gold demand [3][5] Group 4: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices have been supported by U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports and expectations that OPEC+ will not adjust production levels in the near term [6][8] - WTI crude oil closed at $65.37 per barrel, while Brent crude settled at $69 per barrel, reflecting a rise due to sanctions and declining U.S. oil inventories [6][8] - The market is cautious about the demand outlook due to weak economic data, which could limit further price increases [6][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: The US macro - fundamentals are stable, but the political pressure on the Fed has pushed up market expectations of interest rate cuts. Although there are positive feedbacks on investment and consumption, there are still tail risks. Domestically, the market's expectation of corporate profit margins has improved, and recent real - estate policies in first - tier cities may boost transaction volume [7]. - In the short term, market volatility in China may increase. After important events, the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets, especially short - duration commodity assets, may rise. Overseas, liquidity will expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak dollar" repair channel [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US macro - fundamentals are stable. The political pressure on the Fed has reached a new high, pushing up market interest - rate cut expectations. However, service inflation stickiness, tariff shocks, and concerns about the Fed's independence remain tail risks [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: The market's expectation of corporate profit margins has improved. "Anti - involution" has promoted the improvement of mid - stream profits in July. In the real - estate market, first - tier cities have introduced demand - side policies, which may increase transaction volume but the sustainability needs to be observed [7]. - **Asset Views**: In China, short - term market volatility may increase at the beginning of September. After important events, the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets may rise. Overseas, liquidity will expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters, supporting total demand recovery [7]. 2. Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in shock, index options will fluctuate, and treasury bond futures will also be in a shock state, still depending on the performance of the stock market [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are expected to rise in shock as the US interest - rate cut cycle may restart in September, but market risks need attention [8]. - **Shipping**: The freight rate of the European container shipping line may fluctuate as the peak season fades in the third quarter [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties in this sector, such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc., are expected to be in a shock state due to factors like inventory changes, policy influences, and supply - demand relationships [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Although the weak dollar supports non - ferrous metals, the weak demand also needs attention. Most varieties will be in a shock state, with zinc prices expected to fall in shock [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are expected to fall in shock, while most other chemical products will be in a shock state due to factors such as supply - demand relationships, new - capacity pressures, and cost changes [10]. - **Agriculture**: Most agricultural products, including grains, oils, and fibers, are expected to be in a shock state, waiting for further information such as field inspection results [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Insights of the Report - The Fed is expected to restart the easing cycle. Powell's dovish stance at the global central bank meeting paves the way for a September rate cut, making the path of overseas inflation more straightforward [2]. - The current commodity fundamentals are still weak, and caution should be exercised regarding the implementation of policy expectations. Commodity price volatility may remain high [2]. - With the continuous increase in risk aversion and rate - cut expectations, the prices of gold and silver have reached record highs [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In August, there were initial signs of rising overseas inflation. Global economic data in July remained resilient. China's official manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.3, while non - manufacturing remained in expansion. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year in US dollars, higher than expected [1]. - The State Council emphasized measures to stabilize the real estate market, and the government plans to expand service consumption and investment. China's official manufacturing PMI in August slightly rebounded to 49.4, and non - manufacturing accelerated its expansion [1]. - On September 2, A - shares fluctuated and adjusted throughout the day, with the three major indices closing down. The basis of IC and IM futures of stock indices has widened, and subsequent basis changes and risks should be monitored [1]. - In the US, the ISM manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7, with the contraction rate of manufacturing activities slightly slowing down. The "Big Beautiful" Act may support subsequent consumption, and attention should be paid to the further transmission and verification of overseas inflation [1]. Fed and Global Central Banks - Powell's dovish speech at the global central bank meeting on August 22 increased the downward risk of employment, which may lead to a policy adjustment. He also abandoned the 2020 flexible average inflation target framework [2]. - The New York Fed President Williams believes that if the neutral interest rate is 1% or slightly lower, the current situation is in a restrictive area. Trump threatened to remove Fed Governor Cook, and the Fed stated that the removal needs "just cause" [2]. - The European Central Bank's July meeting minutes showed that officials considered inflation risks to be "generally balanced." The preliminary annual CPI rate in the eurozone in August was 2.1%, slightly higher than the previous month, supporting the ECB to maintain the status quo [2]. Commodity Market - Domestically, the black and new energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas inflation expectations can focus on precious metals and agricultural products [2]. - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" situation. The supply constraints in the non - ferrous sector have not been alleviated, and the government will regulate the photovoltaic industry [2]. - In the medium - term, the supply of energy is expected to be relatively loose, with OPEC+ accelerating production increases. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of some varieties is worthy of attention [2]. - Agricultural products are currently driven by tariffs and inflation expectations, but they still need fundamental signals and attention should be paid to Sino - US negotiations [2]. Key News - The central bank's liquidity injection in August included a net MLF injection of 30 billion yuan, a net PSL withdrawal of 16.08 billion yuan, and a net injection of 30 billion yuan through repurchase agreements [4]. - The ceremony commemorating the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War will be held on September 3, with the parade lasting about 70 minutes [4]. - The overall market fluctuated and adjusted, with more stocks falling than rising. The trading volume exceeded 2.91 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.14%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.85% [4]. - The US ISM manufacturing index in August was 48.7, with new orders and other sub - indices showing different trends [4]. - The preliminary annual CPI rate in the eurozone in August was 2.1%, and the core CPI also showed certain changes [4]. - The yield of UK long - term government bonds reached the highest level since 1998, putting pressure on the government. US stocks before the market opened saw a decline in European and US stocks, a surge in long - term bond yields, and a rise in gold prices [4].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts from Philip Nova suggest that if spot gold prices continue to break above $3,500, gold prices may reach a range of $3,600 to $3,900 per ounce in the coming months driven by factors such as interest rate cut expectations, political turmoil, and strong ETF demand [1] Group 1 - Spot gold prices are currently experiencing upward momentum, with a potential target range of $3,600 to $3,900 per ounce [1] - The shift in gold's role from a tactical hedge to a strategic asset for many investors is influenced by various market factors [1] - Key drivers for this shift include expectations of interest rate cuts, ongoing political instability, and robust demand for gold ETFs [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global long - term bonds are facing a "Black September". Political crises and fiscal deficits have pushed the 30 - year bond yields of the UK, Germany, and France to multi - year highs [1] - The import tariffs in the US have raised commodity prices, leading to an increase in the PPI annual rate in July and the core CPI annual rate. Fed Chairman Powell's remarks due to weak employment supply - demand make the September interest - rate cut expectation almost certain, but the US August non - farm payrolls and CPI on September 5th and 11th should be monitored [1] - The European Central Bank has paused interest - rate cuts, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. With the eurozone and Germany and France's manufacturing PMI in August higher than expected and previous values, and the CPI annual rates also higher, the ECB may cut interest rates at most twice before the end of 2025 [1] - The Bank of England cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August, continued to reduce its holdings of £100 billion in government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025, and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction. Given economic data, it may cut interest rates at most once by the end of 2025 [1] - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% in July and will reduce its quarterly government bond purchases from ¥400 billion to ¥200 billion in April 2026. With economic data and the US Treasury Secretary's call for a rate hike, there is still an expectation of a rate hike before the end of 2025, possibly as early as October [1] - The US August ISM manufacturing PMI has shrunk for six consecutive months, with new orders improving and the price index falling again [1] - Metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to mainly place long orders when prices decline. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals Market Data Gold - **Shanghai Gold**: Closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, and basis are provided for different dates. For example, on September 2, 2025, the closing price was 804.32, and the trading volume was 199,052.00 [1] - **COMEX Gold**: Closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, and basis are also given. On September 2, 2025, the closing price was 3599.50 [1] - **London Gold**: The spot price on September 2, 2025, was 3490.00. Data on ETF holdings are also provided, such as the SPDR Gold ETF holding 990.56 on that day [1] Silver - **Shanghai Silver**: Closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, basis, and inventory data are presented. On September 2, 2025, the closing price was 9800.00, and the trading volume was 444,734.00 [1] - **COMEX Silver**: Closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, and basis are provided. On September 2, 2025, the closing price was 41.73 [1] - **London Silver**: The spot price on September 2, 2025, was 40.52. Data on ETF holdings are also given, like the US iShare Silver ETF holding 15366.48 on that day [1] Price Ratios - Ratios between gold and silver prices in different markets (Shanghai, New York, London) are presented, such as the London gold - to - silver ratio being 86.13 on September 2, 2025 [1] Other Commodities - Prices of INE crude oil, ICE Brent crude, NYMEX crude, Shanghai copper, LME copper, Shanghai rebar, and Dalian iron ore are provided with their changes compared to previous days and weeks [1] Interest Rates - Interest rates of major countries are given, including the US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield (4.2800 on September 2, 2025), the US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield, and the US 10 - year Treasury breakeven inflation rate [1] Stock Indices - Closing prices and changes of major global stock indices (Shanghai Composite, S&P 500, FTSE 100, CAC40, DAX, Nikkei 225, South Korea Composite Index) are presented [1] Exchange Rates - Exchange rates such as the US dollar index, the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate are provided with their changes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold ETF fund (159937) is experiencing a strong upward trend, with a recent price increase and significant trading volume, indicating positive market sentiment towards gold investments [1][4]. Market Performance - As of September 3, 2025, the gold ETF fund has risen by 1.31%, marking a five-day consecutive increase, with the latest price at 7.75 yuan [1]. - Over the past week, the gold ETF fund has accumulated a 2.90% increase [1]. - The fund's trading volume reached 12.42 million yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 590 million yuan over the past week, ranking it among the top three comparable funds [1]. Price Predictions - UBS has reiterated its forecast for gold prices to reach $3,700 per ounce by June 2026, with a possibility of hitting $4,000 in case of geopolitical or economic deterioration [2]. - Morgan Stanley has set a year-end target price for gold at $3,800 per ounce, emphasizing the strong inverse correlation between gold and the US dollar [2]. - Goldman Sachs has also maintained its mid-2026 gold price forecast at $4,000 per ounce, citing ongoing central bank purchases and inflows into gold ETFs as key supporting factors [2]. Investment Drivers - Short-term catalysts for gold prices include a rebalancing of risks and expectations of interest rate cuts, which may lead to a temporary weakening of the dollar [3]. - Long-term support for gold prices is driven by persistent global inflation, economic recovery uncertainties, and increasing gold reserves held by central banks [3]. - Gold's dual attributes of being an inflation hedge and a risk mitigator enhance its appeal in asset allocation, especially in volatile market conditions [3]. Fund Characteristics - The gold ETF fund (159937) closely tracks the Shanghai gold benchmark price, offering convenient trading options and low fees, suitable for both short-term trading and long-term asset allocation [4]. - The fund has seen significant leverage with a recent financing buy-in amount of 24.65 million yuan and a financing balance of 3.56 billion yuan [4]. - Over the past five years, the fund's net value has increased by 85.87%, ranking it second among comparable funds [4]. Performance Metrics - As of August 29, 2025, the gold ETF fund has a Sharpe ratio of 2.34 over the past year, indicating strong risk-adjusted returns [5]. - The fund has experienced a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.50% year-to-date as of September 2, 2025 [6]. Fee Structure - The management fee for the gold ETF fund is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10% [7]. - The fund has demonstrated high tracking accuracy, with a tracking error of 0.002% over the past month, outperforming comparable funds [7].

Core Viewpoint - The gold and silver stocks are experiencing a significant upward trend, driven by macroeconomic policies and political risks, with notable increases in ETF investments and stock prices [1][4][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) rose by 3.03%, with key stocks such as Silver Industry (601212) up by 10.09%, Western Gold (601069) up by 10.00%, and Jiangxi Copper (00358) up by 7.88% [1]. - The Gold Stock ETF (517520) increased by 2.81%, with a cumulative rise of 10.03% over the past week as of September 2, 2025 [1][2]. Group 2: Fund Inflows - The Gold Stock ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past six days, totaling 1.346 billion yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 561 million yuan [3]. - The latest scale of the Gold Stock ETF reached 6.835 billion yuan, marking a one-year high and ranking it first among comparable funds [2]. Group 3: Market Drivers - The recent surge in gold and silver prices is attributed to expectations of macroeconomic policy changes and political risks, particularly the dovish shift from the Federal Reserve and concerns over its independence due to political maneuvers [4][5]. - Factors such as fluctuating dollar interest rate expectations, geopolitical tensions, and ongoing central bank gold purchases are supporting gold prices [5].

行情回顾： 国际黄金周二（9月2日）大幅收涨，开盘价3474.08美元/盎司，最高价3520.38美元/盎司，最低价3470.15美元/ 盎司，收盘价3520.38美元/盎司。 消息面： 美国8月ISM制造业PMI录得48.7，低于市场预期49，前值为48；美国7月营建支出月率录得-0.1%，符合市场预 期，前值为-0.4%；美国8月标普全球制造业PMI终值录得53，低于市场预期53.3，前值为53.3。 供应管理协会（ISM）制造业商业调查委员会主席苏珊·斯宾塞表示，8月份，美国制造业活动收缩速度略有放 缓，新订单增长是制造业PMI上升0.7个百分点的最大因素。然而，由于生产收缩的速度几乎等于新订单的扩张 速度，制造业PMI的增长是名义上的。四个需求指标中有两个有所改善，新订单和新出口订单指数显示出增 长，而客户库存和未完成订单指数的收缩速度略快。 世界黄金协会市场情报经理Krishan Gopaul指出，市场持续不确定性、对美联储独立性的担忧、九月降息预期 重燃、美国滞胀风险再现以及美元普遍走弱，共同强化了黄金的吸引力。地缘政治紧张局势与关税忧虑进一步 巩固了这一趋势。Gopaul表示，黄金ETF、金条与 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long position recommended, ★★★ [1] - Silver: Long position recommended, ★★ [1] - Copper: Hold long positions, ★★ [1] - Zinc: Sell on rallies, ★ [1] - Lead: Under pressure, ★ [1] - Tin: Under pressure, ★ [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure, ★ [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound, ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish, ★★★ [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bearish, ★ [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver: Multiple risk factors have pushed gold to a new all - time high. Long - term gold is expected to benefit from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [2] - Copper: It has broken through the 80,000 - yuan mark. In the long - term, it is favored due to tight copper concentrate supply and the explosion of green copper demand [1][5] - Zinc: Macro and sector sentiment are positive, but domestic demand is weak, inventory is piling up, and there is a policy vacuum. In the long - term, supply will increase while demand decreases [1][8] - Aluminum: As the peak season approaches, the price has rebounded, but there are still constraints on the supply and demand side [9][11] - Nickel: Supply pressure persists, and the price rebounds and then falls [13][15] - Lithium carbonate: Wait for a new driving force, and the price is in a wide - range shock [17][19] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Review - Factors such as interest - rate cut expectations, tariff disputes, and doubts about the Fed's independence have boosted gold, with foreign gold hitting a new all - time high [2] Basic Logic - US data has weakened, with a decline in construction spending and a contraction in the manufacturing index. There is a stand - off between the White House and the Fed, and Trump's tariffs have been ruled illegal. In the long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, etc. [2] Strategy Recommendation - Gold has support around 800 in the short - term, and pay attention to the performance around the recent high of 838. Silver has support around 9530. Long - term upward trend remains unchanged [3] Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper has strengthened and broken through the 80,000 - yuan mark, and London copper has reached the $10,000 mark [5] Industry Logic - Copper concentrate supply is tight, and production may decline in September. With the arrival of the peak season, demand will pick up, and domestic inventory is at a relatively low level [5] Strategy Recommendation - Hold existing long positions, and new entrants can try long positions on pullbacks. Enterprises can wait for high - level opportunities for selling hedging. In the long - term, be bullish on copper [6] Zinc Market Review - London zinc has strengthened, and Shanghai zinc has followed slightly [8] Industry Logic - Zinc concentrate supply is abundant in 2025, processing fees are rising, and smelter enthusiasm is high. Domestic inventory is piling up, and overseas inventory is decreasing [8] Strategy Recommendation - Temporarily wait and see in the short - term, and sell on rallies in the long - term [8] Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum price has rebounded, while alumina is relatively weak [10] Industry Logic - There are obvious expectations of interest - rate cuts overseas. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production is increasing slightly, and inventory is piling up. Alumina supply is abundant, and demand is expected to be loose in the short - term [11] Strategy Recommendation - Try long positions on dips in the short - term, paying attention to the changes in the downstream processing enterprises' operating rate [12] Nickel Market Review - Nickel price has rebounded from a low level, and stainless steel has also rebounded [14] Industry Logic - There are expectations of interest - rate cuts overseas. Political instability in Indonesia has raised concerns about nickel ore supply. Domestic refined nickel supply is excessive, and stainless steel inventory is gradually decreasing [15] Strategy Recommendation - Take profits and wait and see, paying attention to downstream inventory changes [16] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2511 opened lower and closed lower, with an intraday decline of more than 4% [18] Industry Logic - Rumors of CATL's resumption of production have eased supply concerns. Production remains high, and demand is picking up, with inventory declining for three consecutive weeks [19] Strategy Recommendation - Wait and see, waiting for the price to stabilize in the range of [71300 - 74500] [20]