【铁矿】 铁矿 今日盘面偏强震荡，近期基差有所走弱。供应端，本期铁矿 全球发运环比回落但仍然强于去年同期水平。澳洲和巴西发运 均小幅下滑，非主流发运小幅增加，考虑到年底矿山发运仍有冲量预期，我们预计海外发运继续偏强。国内到横量环比回落， 仍然处于同期高位。需求端，淡季终端需求处于低位，铁水产量下降幅度仍然较大。短期宏观相关表述偏积极，反内卷情绪也 再次升温，市场情绪有所好转。 铁矿石基本面较为宽松，我们预计短期盘面走势以震荡为主。 【焦炭】 日内价格偏强震荡。焦炭第三轮提降全面落地，焦化利润一般，日产略微下降。焦炭库存小幅下降，目前下游少量按需采购， 贸易商采购意愿一般。整体来看，碳元素供应充浴，下游铁水季节性回落，目前对原材料需求仍有韧性，钢材利润水平一般, 对于原材料压价情绪较浓。焦炭盘面升水，市场对刺激政策有一定预期，价格大概率震荡为主。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 | | | | MILIA | ビリメアル | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月22日 | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月22日 铜行业快评 铜精矿长单加工费基准降为零，促使冶炼行业"反内卷" | 行业研究·行业快评  | | | 有色金属  | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 刘孟峦 | 010-88005312 | liumengluan@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520040001 | | 证券分析师： | 焦方冉 | 021-60933177 | jiaofangran@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522080003 | 事项： 12 月 19 日左右，智利矿业公司安托法加斯塔和国内某头部铜冶炼厂达成协议，将 2026 年铜精矿加工精炼 费用 Benchmark 分别定为 0 美元/吨和 0 美分/磅，低于 2025 年的 21.25 美元/吨和 2.125 美分/磅。 国信金属观点：长单加工费降为零，除了铜矿-铜冶炼供需错配，还因为副产品和回收率收益都处于历史 最好水平。中国铜冶炼厂工艺水平、成本控制全球领先，副产品消纳顺畅，在铜冶炼低迷期竞争 ...

Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is at the bottom of the cycle in 2025, with both investment in cyclical sectors and thematic trends progressing simultaneously. Since Q3 2025, global manufacturing has shown signs of recovery, but demand growth is slowing, leading to a decline in the PPI of chemical products year-on-year [1][65] - On the demand side, the domestic real estate market is at a cyclical low, while sales of new energy vehicles continue to grow significantly. Retail sales are stabilizing, supported by ongoing consumption promotion policies [1][65] - On the supply side, China has become a global leader in the chemical industry, while the manufacturing and chemical production capacity utilization rates in the EU have been declining, particularly in Germany, where the production of basic chemicals has been continuously decreasing [1][65] Group 1: Chemical Industry Overview - The chemical industry is experiencing a prolonged bottoming phase, with a three-year duration already observed. The potential for a turnaround may be approaching [1][65] - The PPI of chemical products has been under pressure, with year-on-year declines noted in major economies, including China, the EU, and Japan [9][74] - The domestic chemical industry is facing a situation of excess supply, which is exerting short-term pressure on prices, while the inventory cycle is still in a passive replenishment phase [1][65] Group 2: Demand Side Analysis - The domestic real estate market is at a cyclical low, with significant declines in new construction and sales figures. The cumulative sales area of new commercial housing in major cities has decreased by 11% year-on-year [18][25] - Sales of new energy vehicles in China have maintained high growth, with a year-on-year increase of 19% in the first eleven months of 2025, indicating strong market demand [25][28] - Retail sales in China have shown a steady improvement, with a growth rate of 4% year-on-year for the first eleven months of 2025, supported by consumption promotion initiatives [28][29] Group 3: Supply Side Analysis - China has replaced Europe and the US as the global leader in chemical production, with a year-on-year increase of 8% in output, while the EU and Germany have seen declines [30][36] - The production capacity in the EU has been declining, particularly in Germany, where the output of various basic chemicals has dropped significantly compared to 2019 levels [36][37] - The investment in basic chemical projects in China has turned negative, indicating a potential shift in the supply landscape as excess capacity begins to face clearing risks [1][65] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on low-valuation leading companies and sectors with improving supply-demand dynamics, including major players in the chemical industry such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and others [3][67] - The fertilizer sector is expected to benefit from slowing capacity growth and increasing overseas demand, which may support price increases [66] - The tire market is showing signs of recovery, with domestic leading companies expanding their global production bases, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [66]

11月12日，浙江大学召开本科学业评价改革学生座谈会。来自不同年级和学科专业的19名本科学生代表 及教务处学籍中心工作人员参与座谈。与会人员就优化课程评定方式及绩点折算办法、探索课程成绩的 容错机制和学业评价多元化改革等几个方面展开深入讨论。 今年以来已有多所高校推进学业评价改革。 近日，河南大学微信公众号发布了《@2025级本科生！新规来了！》一文。文中指出，为缓解过度竞 争，弱化分数竞争，引导学生注重学科素养提升等原因，正式出台2025级本科生成绩与学分管理新规。 文章称，学业评价改革是该校在"提质进位年"深化教育教学改革、提升人才培养质量的关键举措，更是 推动评价理念从"分数导向"向"能力导向"转型升级的重要一步。 复旦大学历时多年的绩点改革在2024年6月尘埃落定。根据学校教务处官网发布的新修订版《复旦大学 本科生成绩记载规定》，新规内容变动主要涉及三方面：一是引入P和NP设置，学生可选择不超过16个 学分不计入绩点；二是增设对创新实践学分的认定；三是调整学分绩点的计算方法，将等级对应的绩点 改为区间形式。 厦门大学经济系副教授丁长发分析，学生到了大学，应该着重于创新能力和综合素质等方面的培养。同 时 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is expected to enter a continuous capacity clearing cycle by 2026, following a period of severe supply-demand mismatch and price wars, with a focus on addressing the industry's pain points and promoting "anti-involution" measures in 2025 [1][9]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The first half of 2025 was characterized as "difficult," with all segments of the photovoltaic industry experiencing unprecedented losses, totaling a net loss of 12.58 billion yuan among 31 A-share listed companies in the photovoltaic main industry chain, a year-on-year increase of 274.3% [3][4]. - Over 40 companies have announced delistings, bankruptcies, or mergers since 2024 due to severe supply-demand imbalances and rapid price declines below industry cost lines [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Major companies reported significant losses in the first half of 2025, with Longi Green Energy losing 2.569 billion yuan, Tongwei Co. losing 4.955 billion yuan, JA Solar losing 2.58 billion yuan, Trina Solar losing 2.918 billion yuan, and TCL Zhonghuan losing 4.242 billion yuan, totaling 17.264 billion yuan in losses among these five leading firms [4][5]. - Despite a temporary boost in market demand from a "rush installation" trend in the distributed photovoltaic market, this demand growth was not sustained [4]. Group 3: Anti-Involution Measures - In the second half of 2025, measures to promote "anti-involution" began to intensify, with government and industry collaboration aimed at addressing low-price disorder and enhancing product quality [6][9]. - The implementation of the Anti-Unfair Competition Law in June 2025 positively impacted pricing, leading to a recovery in prices from July to October 2025, with prices across the photovoltaic industry chain rising compared to the beginning of the year [7][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The establishment of a multi-crystalline silicon capacity integration acquisition platform is seen as a significant step towards optimizing capacity and breaking the cycle of excessive competition [1][8]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to strengthen capacity regulation and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, indicating that 2026 will be a critical year for industry governance [9][10]. - The industry is expected to undergo a continuous capacity clearing cycle, with a focus on improving product quality standards and enhancing market entry barriers to ensure sustainable profitability across the entire supply chain [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growing consensus in the workplace against "involution" competition, highlighting the impact of this trend on employee behavior and corporate practices, with a significant portion of employees considering job changes due to unhealthy work environments [3]. Group 1: Employee Sentiment and Behavior - 78% of employees are willing to change jobs due to involution, indicating a strong desire for a healthier work-life balance [3]. - Nearly 80% of employees express that prolonged exposure to an overly competitive environment would lead them to consider leaving their jobs, with 31.5% preferring companies with healthier work rhythms [3]. - Employees are adopting strategies such as "strategic loafing" and turning off notifications after work to resist "performative" work behaviors [3]. Group 2: Corporate Responses and Policies - The Chinese government has emphasized the importance of protecting workers' rights to rest and vacation, marking a significant step in the anti-involution movement [4]. - Companies like DJI, Haier, and Midea have implemented measures such as mandatory clock-out times and resisting unnecessary overtime, while some Zhejiang enterprises are adopting a 4.5-day workweek [5]. - 8.4% of companies have officially adopted a "mandatory clock-out" policy, while 50.8% maintain a neutral stance on overtime, and 40.8% still promote a culture of overtime [5]. Group 3: Employee Expectations and Corporate Strategies - 54.5% of employees prioritize optimizing compensation and incentive mechanisms as a key measure against involution, seeking fair pay and recognition for their contributions [7]. - University students identify good job characteristics as competitive salaries, favorable benefits, and ample training and development opportunities, indicating a shift in what attracts young talent [7]. - Companies need to focus on enhancing their compensation and training systems to attract and retain top young talent in the evolving job market [7].

Core Insights - The report highlights the "anti-involution" policy as a catalyst for coal price recovery, with expectations for stable price increases in 2026. The lowest price for Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal was 610 RMB/ton in June 2025, while it rose to 813 RMB/ton by December 1, 2025, indicating a recovery trend [7][8] - The coal industry is expected to shift from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement" due to regulatory measures and market mechanisms, which will likely lead to a decrease in domestic coal production in 2026 [8][12] - The demand for thermal power is projected to remain resilient, supported by AI computing power driving new electricity demand, with a forecasted increase in coal consumption due to sustained thermal coal demand [9][10] Industry Overview - The report discusses the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on the coal industry, emphasizing the need for self-discipline and capacity checks, which may lead to a reduction in production capacity and a tightening of imports [8][12] - The report notes that the coal price index fluctuated between 1100 and 1570 RMB/ton in 2025, with a significant increase in prices following the implementation of long-term contracts [7][8] - The report anticipates that the coal industry will see a shift towards high-quality development, with a focus on stable dividends and improved return on equity (ROE) for listed companies [11][12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investing in leading coal companies with strong resource endowments, cost advantages, and stable dividend policies, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [12] - It also recommends companies with growth potential based on their production capacity and profitability, including Guanghui Energy and Huayang Co [12]

大疆、海尔、美的等企业相继推出"反卷"措施 从年初的政府工作报告到年末到中央经济工作会议，都将"整治'内卷式'竞争"列为经济工作的重要任务。这一年自上而下的"反内卷"对普通打工人有何影 响？ 智联招聘近日发布的《2025雇佣关系趋势报告》（下称报告）的调查显示，"反内卷"已经成为职场新共识，78%职场人会因内卷跳槽，职场人对健康工作环 境与生活平衡的诉求，也在推动企业人力资源管理的转变，国内8.4%的公司已正式推行"强行下班"制度。 今年3月，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《提振消费专项行动方案》，要求对各单位休息休假制度执行情况的常态化监督，依法保障劳动者休息休假 权益，不得违法延长劳动者工作时间，"保障休息休假权益"成为职场反内卷的一个标志。 年初，大疆、海尔、美的等企业相继推出"反卷"措施——到点强制下班、抵制无效加班、严禁非必要会议，浙江民企也开始自觉推行4.5天工作制。 上海社科院经济研究所研究室主任詹宇波曾对第一财经表示，"内卷"和竞争激烈，是人才市场长期热议的话题。因此，减少劳动时间，增加闲暇时光，趋势 兴起就很容易获得认可，也具有内生的动力。 报告显示，这些变化表明企业开始调整考核考核和激励 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空僵持，煤焦震荡运行 核心观点 焦炭：截至 12 月 19 日当周，全样本独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂焦炭日均产 量合计 109.49 万吨，周环比降 1.1 万吨；全国 247 家钢厂铁水日均产量 226.55 万吨，周环比下降 2.65 万吨，钢厂盈利率周环比持平，维持 35.93%的水平，大部分钢厂仍处亏损状态，焦炭短期需求压力仍存。整体 来看，焦炭供需格局未明显改善，但下游冬储补库预期和反内卷预期驱动 焦炭期货止跌反弹，关注后续钢厂补库节奏。 焦煤：截至 12 月 19 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 75.8 万 吨，环比增 0.8 万吨，同比降 4.1 万吨；下游焦化厂和钢厂焦炭日均产量 合计 109.49 万吨，周环比降 1.1 万吨，减量主要集中在独立焦化厂。因 原材料焦煤价格上涨，独立焦化厂吨焦盈利走低，生产积极性下滑。整体 来看，焦煤供应端压力阶段性释放，随着下游冬储补库预期和反内卷预期 扰动再现，市场情绪由弱转强，焦煤主力合约低位 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent implementation of the "Internet Platform Pricing Behavior Rules" aimed at regulating price competition in the platform economy, promoting healthy development, and protecting the rights of consumers and operators [3][5]. Summary by Sections Internet Platform Pricing Behavior Rules - The new rules consist of 7 chapters and 29 articles, prohibiting practices such as predatory pricing, price discrimination, collusion to raise prices, price fraud, and price gouging, thereby establishing clear boundaries for competition [5][6]. - The rules aim to enhance transparency, collaboration, and a healthy platform ecosystem, providing clear pricing behavior guidelines for platform operators and their internal operators [5][6]. Consumer Protection - The rules include provisions to protect consumer rights, focusing on the right to know and the right to choose, requiring operators to provide clear pricing and cancellation options for services [6][7]. - Platforms are encouraged to establish online dispute resolution mechanisms and quality assurance systems to enhance consumer trust [7]. Progress in Various Industries - The article highlights significant progress in various sectors, including solar energy, automotive, and battery industries, in combating "involution" or excessive competition [3][8]. - The solar industry has seen the establishment of a "polysilicon capacity integration acquisition platform" to address issues of unhealthy competition, with major stakeholders like Tongwei Group and GCL-Poly Energy holding significant shares [9][10]. Central Economic Work Conference - The recent Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for deeper regulation of "involution" competition, indicating a shift from comprehensive to in-depth measures [13][14]. - The conference underscored the importance of establishing a unified national market and enhancing industry self-regulation to foster a competitive market environment [13][14]. Future Directions - The article suggests that the solar industry is entering a critical phase of governance, with plans for capacity regulation and monitoring to ensure a balanced market [10][11]. - The focus will be on promoting high-quality development and addressing issues such as low-price bidding and quality control in the industry [11][12].