瑞达期货研究院 「2025.6.6」 集运指数（欧线）期货周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号： Z0020723 联系电话：0595-86778969 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 本周集运指数（欧线）期货价格小幅下行，主力合约EC2508收跌1.05%，远月合约收跌1-3%不等，MSC、赫伯罗特、 达飞、现代商船、长荣海运等相继宣涨亚欧航线运价至3000-3300美金/FEU，小幅支撑期价，但加征关税所带来的负 面影响仍未改善。最新SCFIS欧线结算运价指数为1252.82，较上周回升5.77点，环比上行0.5%。美国总统特朗普宣布 将进口钢铁和铝及其衍生制品的关税从25%提高至50%，该关税政策自美国东部时间2025年6月4日凌晨00时01分起生效。 美联储最新公布的"褐皮书"显示，美国经济活动自上次报告以来略有下降，企业和消费者面临政策不确定性上升、 物价压力加大的压力，整体经济前景仍显悲观。在此背景下，贸易战不确定性尚存，叠加俄乌冲突有所升级，集运指 数（欧线）需求预期转冷，期价震荡 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The trade situation affects demand expectations, and the energy and chemical sector is generally in a weak and volatile state. Macro data shows a weakening economic pattern, and chemical demand is unlikely to perform strongly, with futures prices expected to be in a weak and volatile state [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **View**: Supply pressure continues, and attention should be paid to macro and geopolitical disturbances. Short - term macro - level positives boost oil prices, but terminal demand is weak. OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical factors lead to oil price fluctuations [5] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [5] Asphalt - **View**: The rise in crude oil drives up the asphalt futures price. However, factors such as OPEC+ production increase, sufficient domestic raw material supply, and high asphalt cracking spread suggest that the current price is overvalued [5] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Weakly volatile [5] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The high - sulfur fuel oil futures price rises following crude oil. But with the increase in heavy - oil supply and the weakening of demand drivers, the supply - demand situation is unfavorable [5] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Weakly volatile [5] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price fluctuates following crude oil. It is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with low valuation [6] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Weakly volatile [6] LPG - **View**: Demand remains weak, and the rebound space of PG is limited. Although the spot price has stabilized, the fundamental supply is loose, and the demand is weak [6][7] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [7] PX - **View**: Affected by polyester production cuts, PX prices decline. Short - term crude oil weakness squeezes PX cost, and the supply - demand pattern is in a state of game [8] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Weakly volatile [8] PTA - **View**: Affected by polyester production cuts, PTA prices decline. PTA is in a state of inventory reduction, but attention should be paid to whether polyester factories increase production cuts [8] - **Mid - term Outlook**: High - level volatile in the single - side market [8] Benzene Ethylene - **View**: The current situation is still poor, and benzene ethylene is expected to be in a weakly volatile state. Although the cost side has improved, supply is increasing, and demand is average [8][9] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Weakly volatile [9] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **View**: There is an expected reduction in supply, and the near - end is strong. If US ethane exports are restricted, EG supply will decrease, and current demand is acceptable [10] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [10] Short - Fiber - **View**: Terminal demand is low, and it is difficult to expand the processing fee. Terminal demand is the main negative factor, and the short - fiber may not be stronger than raw materials [10][11] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [11] Bottle Chip - **View**: The processing fee is further compressed, and there are no highlights in the situation. The supply pressure is large, and the price follows the raw materials [13] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [13] Methanol - **View**: The port continues to accumulate inventory, and methanol fluctuates. Supply is relatively loose, port inventory is increasing, and the support from downstream olefins is limited [16] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [16] Urea - **View**: The market is weak, waiting for the callback opportunity when agricultural demand is released. Supply is high, agricultural demand has not yet been concentrated, and industrial demand is weakening [14][16] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Weakly volatile [16] LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: Oil prices rebound, and attention should be paid to maintenance changes. The cost side has some support, but the supply pressure is high, and demand is weak [19] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [19] PP - **View**: Oil prices rebound, and attention should be paid to maintenance changes. Similar to LLDPE, the cost side has support, but supply is increasing, and demand is average [20][21] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [21] PVC - **View**: Short - term sentiment warms up, and PVC has a weak rebound. Although the market sentiment has improved, the long - term fundamentals are under pressure due to new capacity, weak demand, and other factors [22] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Volatile [22] Caustic Soda - **View**: Strong current situation but weak expectations, mainly short - selling on rallies. Although the current supply is tight, the supply expectation for the 09 contract is pessimistic [22] - **Mid - term Outlook**: Weakly volatile [22] Group 4: Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as SC (M1 - M2) is 5 with a change of 0, WTI (M1 - M2) is 0.92 with a change of - 0.04, etc. [23] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, for example, the basis of asphalt is 173 with a change of 9, and the warehouse receipt is 91510 [24] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are also different inter - variety spread values and changes, like 1 - month PP - 3MA is - 93 with a change of 10 [25] Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Not detailed in the content

中国需求与巴西供给之间的这种契合形成了一个"联盟"，并随着全球地缘政治紧张局势加剧而不断深 化。当西方大国加大对中国施压，并试图迫使各国选边站时，巴西提供了自然资源、农业产品和制度稳 定性，中国以市场、投资和工业技术作为回应。 巴西应利用这些优势吸引中国在基础设施领域的投资。日益深化的战略关系为双方洽谈具有变革性的项 目创造了机遇。两洋铁路将连接大西洋和太平洋，途经巴西和秘鲁并接入钱凯港，而这仅仅是一个开 始。巴西可以吸引高铁、地铁系统和轻型轨道交通等投资，从而彻底革新国内的城市交通系统。 正如孔子所言："有朋自远方来，不亦乐乎？"在巴中伙伴关系中，这种友谊已转化为真正的地缘政 治"血脉契约"，其基础是共同的关键需求和共享的未来愿景。（作者米格尔·多·罗萨里奥，肖攀译） 巴西Ocafezinho新闻网6月3日文章，原题：巴西和中国之间的"血脉契约" 巴西和中国之间的关系继续以 非同寻常的方式深化。2025年前4个月（1月至4月），巴西对中国的出口总额约285亿美元，占同期巴西 出口总额的26.5%。巴西出口到中国的主要产品是大豆、石油、铁矿石和牛肉。 这不仅仅关乎贸易，因为这些并非普通商品，而是对中国民众的生 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the recent China - US summit call helps ease the current deadlock, but the US Bureau of Industry and Security's restrictions on ethane and butane exports to China have brought new trade disruptions. The geopolitical trade disturbances are heating up again, and the ethane MB price has dropped to a historical low. The strategy is that oil prices are oscillating at the bottom, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - New York Mercantile Exchange's July - delivery light crude oil futures rose 52 cents to $63.37 per barrel, a 0.83% increase; August - delivery London Brent crude oil futures rose 48 cents to $65.34 per barrel, a 0.74% increase. The SC crude oil main contract fell 1.07% to 463 yuan per barrel [1]. - The European Central Bank cut the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2%, in line with market expectations, for the 7th consecutive meeting. The main refinancing rate and marginal lending rate were cut from 2.4% and 2.65% to 2.15% and 2.4% respectively, reaching the lowest level since early 2023 [1]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week unexpectedly increased to the highest level since October last year. The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending May 31 increased by 0.8 million to 24.7 million, higher than the market expectation of 23.5 million. The four - week average also rose to 23.5 million, the highest since October last year [1]. - As of the week ending June 4, Singapore's fuel oil inventory rose 243,000 barrels to a 6 - week high of 22.581 million barrels; middle distillates inventory fell 686,000 barrels to a 4 - week low of 9.24 million barrels; light distillates inventory rose 81,000 barrels to a 2 - week high of 13.102 million barrels [1]. - Israel assured the White House that it would not attack Iran's nuclear facilities unless US President Trump signaled the failure of negotiations with Iran [1]. Investment Logic The recent China - US summit call helps ease the current deadlock, but the US has restricted the export of ethane and butane to China. The largest US NGL exporter EPD has three ethane shipments affected, which is bad news for both US ethane consumption and Chinese ethane cracking enterprises. The ethane MB price has dropped to a historical low, and trade disturbances due to geopolitics have intensified [2]. Strategy Oil prices are oscillating at the bottom, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3]. Risks - Downside risks: The Iran nuclear deal is reached, and macro black - swan events occur [3]. - Upside risks: Supply of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) tightens, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to Middle East conflicts [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-06-05 成品油开始累库，原油或将拖累化⼯进 ⼊偏弱格局 欧美的贸易和谈以及美伊之间的冲突对油价形成支撑，加拿大减产一 度造成WTI强于Brent。6月4日加拿大一运营商开始重启一处因大火关停的 原油生产，后期如果天气合适，加拿大约50万桶/日的原油生产将陆续重 启。EIA发布周报，成品油终于开始出现较大的累库，这表明炼厂开工提 升已经临近尾声，原油的直接需求增量可能临近尾声。 板块逻辑： 化工市场仍处于无主线阶段。焦煤在6月4日日盘大幅反弹7%，对甲醇及 其下游的聚烯烃又拉升作用，聚烯烃自身产业链变化较小，产量同比依旧 有10%以上的增速。聚酯链略显平淡，博弈较大，短纤开始减产减合约， 短纤的加工费立即得到部分修复。市场最大的担忧是后期需求会在抢出口 结束后出现失速，能化品延续震荡整理格局。 原油：美国成品大幅累库，供应压力仍在 LPG：需求仍弱势，PG反弹空间或有限 沥青：沥青期价高估等待回落 高硫燃油：高硫燃油期价如期回落 低硫燃油：低硫燃油期价跟随原油震荡 甲醇：煤炭小幅提振，甲醇震荡 尿素：盘面偏弱，等待农需 ...

Group 1: Crude Oil Market Dynamics - As of May 30, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding strategic reserves, decreased by 4.304 million barrels to 436 million barrels, while gasoline inventories increased by 5.219 million barrels [1] - U.S. domestic crude oil production rose by 0.07 million barrels to 13.408 million barrels per day [1] - Iran's Supreme Leader stated that Iran has achieved a complete nuclear fuel cycle, indicating potential long-term oversupply in the global crude oil market if OPEC+ continues to increase production, which could exert downward pressure on oil prices [1] Group 2: Methanol Market Insights - China's methanol port sample inventory stands at 581,000 tons, increasing by 58,000 tons week-on-week; production enterprise inventory is at 370,500 tons, up by 15,500 tons [1] - The market price for methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu, is 2,302 yuan/ton, rising by 27 yuan/ton; operating rate is at 87.19%, up by 0.22% [1] - The forecast for methanol September contract indicates short-term fluctuations with resistance at 2,270 yuan/ton, suggesting a wait-and-see or short position strategy [1] Group 3: Chlor-alkali Market Overview - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda is stable at 880 yuan/ton; chlor-alkali profit is at 681 yuan/ton [1] - Weekly production capacity utilization for caustic soda is at 84.1%, up by 1.5% [1] - The forecast for caustic soda September contract suggests short-term fluctuations with resistance at 2,365 yuan/ton, recommending a wait-and-see approach [1] Group 4: Iron Ore Market Trends - Global iron ore shipments totaled 34.31 million tons from May 27 to June 2, an increase of 2.423 million tons week-on-week [1] - Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments amounted to 28.688 million tons, with Australian shipments at 19.205 million tons, down by 0.927 million tons [1] - The forecast for iron ore prices indicates a weak trend due to seasonal demand decline and expected supply recovery, with a reference pressure level of 750 yuan/ton [1]

周三现货黄金市场再次走V型反转走势，因国际经济环境的不稳定，特朗普政府新关税政策的冲击以及美国服务业意外萎缩，就业数据的低迷，使得市场投 资者纷纷涌入避险市场，现货黄金市场昨日触底反弹，最低至3343.86美元/盎司，最高至3384.71美元/盎司，最终收盘于3372.60美元/盎司。 现货白银市场 若市场价格跌破34.170美元/盎司的支撑位，可择机建立空单头寸，并将下方目标价位设定为33.700-33.300美元/盎司。 现货黄金市场 小时图目前处于高位震荡阶段，短线15分钟图处于震荡阶段，震荡区间3369.00-3385.00，操作上可在这个区间高抛低吸。 若后市市场下破3369.00点位则可介入空单，下方目标可看向3359.00-3349.00美元/盎司。 若后市市场上破3385.00点位则可介入多单，上方目标可看向3395.00-3405.00。（止损为5.00美元/盎司空间） 小时图目前处于震荡阶段，短线15分钟图周期处于震荡阶段，震荡区间34.170-34.570，操作上可在这个区间内高抛低吸。 对于后市热点，需要继续关注贸易关税情况，同时要密切关注地缘政治的发展情况以及美联储未来货币政策的动向 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普宣布将进口钢铁和铝及其衍 生制品的关税从25%提高至50%，该关税政策自美国东部时间 2025年6月4日凌晨00时01分起生效。美国从英国进口的钢铝关 税仍将维持在25%。评：避险情绪再度增加，利多黄金，但是美 元指数大幅反弹，有所抵消。地缘政治和关税博弈变数增加， 避险需求增加，黄金短期偏多。黄金中期依然高位震荡对待， 关注关税矛盾是否进一步激化。 【短评-橡胶】泰国胶水大跌，下跌4.75泰铢/公斤至56.5 泰铢/公斤；版纳原料下跌，制干胶胶水下跌0.1-0.2元/公斤至 12.5-12.6元/公斤，制浓乳胶水下跌0.1元/公斤至12.8-12.9元 /公斤；海南原料持稳。割胶工作还未完全恢复，原料产出偏 紧，国营胶水收购价为13900元/吨，民营胶水收购价为14900- 15300元/吨；截至2025年5月29日，中国半钢胎样本企业产能利 用率为72.51%，环比-1.23个百分点，同比-7.58个百分点；中 国全钢胎样本企业产能利用率为60.80%，环比-1.29个百分点， 同比-4.40个百分点。评：国内现货价格持续走低，带动原料价 格整体下滑 ...

美国国务卿鲁比奥：在地缘政治问题的决策中，确保原材料和重工业能力已成为核心关注点，这一点越 来越明显。 ...

（1）基本面 价格：5 月 30 日苯乙烯主力合约收跌 1.19%，报 7140 元/吨，基差 585 元/吨（+21 元/吨）； 成本：5 月 30 日布油主力合约收盘 60.9 美元/桶（-0.9 美元/桶），WTI 原油主力合约收盘 63.4 美元/桶（-0.9 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报价 5835 元/吨（-25 元/吨）。 能源化工 通惠期货•研发产品系列 苯乙烯日报 2025 年 6 月 3 日 星期二 地缘政治影响原油大涨，但供需仍然偏弱 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 库存：苯乙烯样本工厂库存 17.1 万吨（-1.6 万吨），环比减少 8.44%， 江苏港口库存 7.5 万吨（+2.3 万吨），环比上升 43.2%，苯乙烯开始累库。 供应：苯乙烯检修装置将于 6 月中下旬逐渐回归，届时供应有增量预 期。目前，苯乙烯周产量环比回升 3.9%至 33.0 万吨（+1.3 万吨），工厂产能 利用率 72.0%（+2.7%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率变化不一，其中 EPS 产能利用率 58.7%（+0.9%）， ABS 产能利用率 62.3%（+1.45%），PS 产能利用率 61.8%（+ ...