编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.06.20） 宏观及策略研究 科创板改革获推进，市场延续窄幅震荡——A 股市场投资策略周报 晨会纪要（2025/06/20） 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 4 晨会纪要（2025/06/20） 宏观及策略研究 科创板改革获推进，市场延续窄幅震荡——A 股市场投资策略周报 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、市场回顾 近 5 个交易日（6 月 13 日-6 月 19 日），重要指数纷纷收跌；其中，上证综指收跌 1.19%，创业板指收跌 1.95%； 风格层面，沪深 300 收跌 1.26%，中证 500 收跌 2.12%。成交量方面小幅缩量，两市统计区间内成交 6.33 万亿元，日均成交额达到 1.27 万亿元 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of abandoning illusions and tackling challenges head-on, highlighting the transition between old and new economic drivers, with a focus on domestic demand and technological innovation in sectors like AI, robotics, and semiconductors [3][13][36] - The report notes that while there are short-term risks, the long-term competitive advantages of Chinese exports are significant, with a record trade surplus of $1,127.1 billion as of May 2025, indicating a strong export trend [36][40] - The report discusses the increasing significance of the capital market, with expectations of a shift from a focus on liquidity to encouraging credit expansion, supported by recent policy changes aimed at stabilizing and activating the capital market [3][62][70] Group 2 - The report identifies key investment themes, including domestic consumption driven by policy support and the emergence of autonomous and controllable sectors, which are seen as vital for national strategy and economic resilience [4][5][30] - The report highlights the rapid growth potential of the marine economy, which is projected to contribute significantly to GDP, with a focus on deep-sea technology and green transformation initiatives [5][30] - The report outlines the expected growth in the humanoid robotics market, with a projected CAGR of over 80% from 2023 to 2028, indicating a strong investment opportunity in this sector [30][32]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the acquisition of control over Haimer Technology by Fan Zhonghua, who invested 202 million yuan for a 5% stake and additional voting rights, totaling 28.02% of the voting rights [2][4][6] - The acquisition price was set at 7.9 yuan per share, which is the latest closing price before the suspension, indicating no premium was paid [4][12] - Fan Zhonghua's background includes a significant family enterprise, Yinghai Group, which has a strong presence in the cement industry, and he has transitioned from family business management to equity investment [12][13] Group 2 - Haimer Technology reported a revenue of approximately 600 million yuan in 2024, with a net loss of about 228 million yuan, indicating a significant decline in profitability [13][14] - The company aims to expand through mergers and acquisitions to seek new growth avenues, although there are currently no plans for asset injection from Fan Zhonghua [13][14] - The oil and gas equipment service industry is experiencing a shift from being driven by cycles to being driven by structural changes, presenting new growth opportunities [14]

Core Viewpoint - The recent policies introduced in Guangzhou, Zhuhai, and Shanghai reflect China's determination and action to accelerate breakthroughs in the semiconductor industry, emphasizing the importance of the integrated circuit sector for national technological self-reliance and competitiveness [1][9]. Guangzhou - Guangzhou aims to establish itself as a core area for China's integrated circuit industry, focusing on high-quality development through various measures, including enhancing chip design capabilities and supporting domestic production of core design tools [2][5]. - The policy includes financial support for companies developing high-end chips, with subsidies up to 5 million yuan for specific design projects [3]. - Measures also promote the localization of essential semiconductor materials and equipment, with subsidies for fixed asset investments exceeding 10 million yuan [4]. Zhuhai - Zhuhai has introduced ten measures to support the high-quality development of the semiconductor and integrated circuit industry, focusing on areas such as factory acquisition and advanced packaging [6][7]. - The policies encourage the development of the RISC-V ecosystem, with financial rewards for product development and sales achievements, aiming to foster innovation in key technology areas [6][7]. - The establishment of the RDSA industry alliance and the RISC-V application innovation center in Zhuhai highlights the city's commitment to building a robust RISC-V ecosystem [7]. Shanghai - Shanghai is enhancing its semiconductor industry by implementing a comprehensive strategy that focuses on the entire supply chain, from design to manufacturing and testing [8]. - The city plans to leverage a 100 billion yuan fund to support the development of the semiconductor sector, with a projected industry scale exceeding 390 billion yuan by 2024, marking a growth of over 20% [8]. - Recent initiatives include the establishment of a semiconductor materials laboratory and policies to support wide-bandgap semiconductor development, aiming to create a conducive environment for innovation and industry growth [9]. Overall Implications - The coordinated policies from Guangzhou, Zhuhai, and Shanghai collectively aim to enhance China's self-sufficiency and advancement in the semiconductor industry, fostering a competitive edge in the global market [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and an increase in losses for the year 2024, attributed to various factors including industry demand fluctuations, high costs, and asset impairment provisions [1][3][13]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 235.38 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.39% [1][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -26.8 million yuan, compared to -20.3 million yuan in the previous year, indicating a worsening loss situation [1][13]. - The non-recurring net profit was -29.2 million yuan, compared to -22.7 million yuan in the previous year [1]. Product Segmentation - The company's A product segment generated revenue of 98.28 million yuan, a significant year-on-year decrease of 42.28% [1][3]. - The B product segment reported revenue of 136.02 million yuan, showing an increase due to market expansion and increased deliveries of other information processing products [1][13]. - The main product categories include command control information processing systems, software radar information processing systems, and intelligent unmanned systems [2][5][6]. Cost Structure - The company reported a gross margin of 45.78% for 2024, a slight decline of 0.34 percentage points from the previous year [13]. - Sales expenses increased by 29.19% to 22.74 million yuan, driven by higher employee compensation, travel, and promotional expenses [14][15]. - R&D expenses totaled 266.06 million yuan, up 7.98% year-on-year, reflecting increased investment in innovation and product development [18]. Market and Industry Trends - The company is focusing on the development of intelligent unmanned systems and smart wireless communication technologies, aligning with national strategic initiatives [6][18]. - The demand for autonomous and core component localization in the electronic information industry is increasing due to geopolitical tensions and trade frictions [1][6]. - The company is actively expanding its market presence in the intelligent unmanned equipment sector, which is expected to grow rapidly [2][6].

ETF Industry News - Major indices collectively rose, with several communication sector ETFs leading the gains. The Communication ETF (515880.SH) increased by 2.08%, 5G50ETF (159811.SZ) rose by 1.87%, and Communication Equipment ETF (159583.SZ) gained 1.79% [1] - The construction materials sector saw declines, with the Construction Materials ETF (516750.SH) down by 1.30% and another Construction Materials ETF (159745.SZ) down by 1.25% [1] Communication Industry Insights - A recent report from Western Securities highlighted that AMD and NVIDIA mentioned that agent-based AI is expected to drive exponential growth in inference workloads. Collaboration with leading AI companies and cloud providers is anticipated [2] - The report emphasizes that computing power remains a major bottleneck for AI innovation, and self-developed ASIC chips from large companies are becoming an important supplement to computing power supply [2] - Key areas to focus on include overseas computing chain growth, domestic computing demand, and the importance of self-controllable technology in the industry [2] Dividend Asset Allocation - Dividend-themed funds are gaining traction as core investment targets due to their stable cash flow and defensive attributes. Several dividend-themed ETFs have recently reached record high shares [3] - As of June 17, the E Fund CSI Dividend Low Volatility ETF reached 1.576 billion shares, up 85% year-to-date, while the Southern S&P China A-share Large Cap Dividend Low Volatility 50 ETF reached 6.564 billion shares, a 75% increase [4] Sci-Tech Board ETF Developments - Following the implementation of the "Sci-Tech Board Eight Measures," the number and scale of Sci-Tech Board ETFs have both seen significant growth, with a total of 88 ETFs and a combined scale exceeding 250 billion yuan [5] Market Overview - The A-share market saw all major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.04% to 3388.81 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.24% to 10175.59 points, and the ChiNext Index up 0.23% to 2054.73 points [6][7] - The electronic, communication, and defense industries performed well, with daily increases of 1.5%, 1.39%, and 0.95%, respectively [9] ETF Market Performance - Stock-style ETFs showed the best performance today, with an average increase of 0.27%, while cross-border ETFs had the worst performance with an average decrease of 0.57% [12] - The top-performing stock ETFs included 5G Communication ETF (515050.SH) with a 2.37% increase, 5GETF (159994.SZ) with a 2.22% increase, and Communication ETF (515880.SH) with a 2.08% increase [14][15] Trading Volume Insights - The top three stock ETFs by trading volume were A500 ETF (159351.SZ) with 2.862 billion yuan, A500 ETF Fund (512050.SH) with 2.770 billion yuan, and Sci-Tech 50 ETF (588000.SH) with 2.175 billion yuan [17][19]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shanghai Zhaoxin Integrated Circuit Co., Ltd., has officially received acceptance for its IPO application on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, marking its entry as a "hard technology" enterprise in the market [1] Company Overview - Zhaoxin Integrated has been deeply engaged in the industry for many years, mastering core technologies in the design and development of general-purpose processors and supporting chips, positioning itself as a leading CPU design company in China that is compatible with multiple fields including desktop PCs, servers, workstations, and embedded systems [1] - The company has established a comprehensive and professional R&D team focused on the key core technologies of general-purpose processor chip development, with a fully autonomous design process and environment [1] - Zhaoxin has achieved the definition, expansion, and innovation of its own instruction set, fully mastering CPU core design methods and independently developing CPU core microarchitectures [1] Market Position and Achievements - In 2024, Zhaoxin's CPUs are expected to lead in market share among domestic desktop PC manufacturers, including Lenovo, Softcom, Unisoc, Ascend, and Vision Source, establishing a leading market position in the domestic desktop PC market [2] - The company has made significant progress in market expansion across various sectors such as government, finance, education, energy, communication, transportation, industry, and healthcare [2] Ecosystem Development - Zhaoxin's processors currently support various operating systems including Tongxin, Kirin, Zhongke Fangde, Euler, and Longxi, and have achieved compatibility and optimization with over 3,000 partners across databases, middleware, application software, security software, and cloud platforms [2] - The company has formed over 200,000 software and hardware adaptation and optimization projects, maintaining industry-leading ecosystem compatibility [2] Fundraising and Future Plans - The funds raised from the IPO will primarily be directed towards new generation server processors, new generation desktop processors, advanced process processor R&D projects, and R&D center projects [2] - The completion of these fundraising projects is expected to further solidify the company's market leadership in key desktop PC industries, enhance product competitiveness across the market, and support national information security strategies while improving domestic CPU self-sufficiency [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the establishment of the "Growth Layer" in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board aims to further optimize the market segmentation structure, promoting resource integration among Sci-Tech enterprises [1] - Following the implementation of the "Eight Policies" for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, the number of disclosed major asset restructuring plans reached 105, indicating accelerated resource integration in the sector [1] - Year-to-date data shows that Sci-Tech Innovation Board listed companies have participated in 18 major restructurings, particularly in the biopharmaceutical sector, fostering the cultivation of new productive forces through mergers and acquisitions of technology-intensive enterprises [1] Group 2 - Huaxi Securities highlights four key directions for the Sci-Tech 100 industry: 1) AI+: Domestic large models like DeepSeek are continuously iterating, with improved technical performance and reduced training costs, leading to a projected compound annual growth rate of 32.1% over the next five years [2] 2) Satellite Internet: As a key infrastructure for the 6G era, domestic satellite constellations are entering a dense launch phase, with significant market potential for applications like aviation WiFi [2] 3) Low-altitude economy: Driven by policy, the market is expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2030, with infrastructure construction showing high certainty [2] 4) Replacement fields: There is an urgent need for self-controlled demand in critical areas like CAE and EDA, with significant room for domestic substitution [2] Group 3 - The Sci-Tech 100 ETF (588120) tracks the Sci-Tech 100 Index (000698), which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., selecting 100 securities with larger market capitalization and better liquidity from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board to reflect the overall performance of representative listed companies [3] - The components of the Sci-Tech 100 Index are mainly concentrated in new-generation information technology, biomedicine, and high-end equipment manufacturing, fully reflecting the technological innovation attributes of Sci-Tech Innovation Board enterprises [3]

Core Insights - The transformation of the China-Kazakhstan energy corridor signifies a shift from a simple oil export relationship to a comprehensive technological partnership, enhancing Kazakhstan's energy sector capabilities and independence [3][5][11] Group 1: Historical Context and Evolution - Kazakhstan, rich in oil and gas reserves, faced challenges due to outdated Soviet-era technology and reliance on Russian pipelines, leading to a "resource curse" [3][4] - The initiation of the China-Kazakhstan oil pipeline in 2005 marked the beginning of a cooperative relationship, evolving from mere oil sales to a collaborative effort involving technology transfer and infrastructure development [3][4] Group 2: Technological Advancements - Chinese technology has significantly improved oil extraction and refining processes in Kazakhstan, such as increasing oil recovery rates from 30% to 55% in the Kashagan oil field and enhancing gasoline yield from 35% to 42% at the Shymkent refinery [4][5] - The introduction of cost-effective monitoring technologies has reduced operational costs by 60% while increasing fault detection accuracy from 70% to 95% [4][5] Group 3: Economic Impact - The partnership has transformed Kazakhstan from a resource provider to an industrial participant, with significant increases in refinery profits and the establishment of new projects like the world's first asphalt-based carbon material production line [5][9] - The collaboration has led to the creation of over 5,000 jobs in new industries, showcasing the economic diversification driven by technological cooperation [9][10] Group 4: Geopolitical Implications - The energy corridor has shifted Kazakhstan's geopolitical stance, allowing it to choose its energy partners independently and reducing reliance on traditional powers like Russia and the West [8][10] - Kazakhstan's adoption of Chinese technology has enabled it to meet international standards, positioning it favorably in the global energy market [8][9] Group 5: Environmental Considerations - The integration of eco-friendly technologies in oil extraction and refining processes has improved environmental outcomes, addressing pollution issues and promoting sustainable practices [7][10] - Projects like the "green oilfield" initiative demonstrate a commitment to balancing energy development with ecological preservation [7][10] Group 6: Regional Cooperation - The success of the China-Kazakhstan energy corridor has fostered collaborative efforts among Central Asian nations, leading to the establishment of the Central Asia Energy Technology Alliance [10] - This regional cooperation aims to create a unified approach to energy resource management, enhancing collective bargaining power and technological sharing [10]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the **high-end equipment** sector within the context of **China's self-sufficiency** strategy, particularly in light of increasing restrictions from the U.S. and Western countries on Chinese technology [1][2][5] Core Insights and Arguments - **Self-sufficiency as Investment Theme**: The current geopolitical climate emphasizes the need for self-sufficiency, supported by China's 14th Five-Year Plan, which signals strong policy backing for domestic alternatives [1][2] - **Investment Strategy**: The strategy involves mapping macroeconomic and market correlations, focusing on policy-supported areas, critical sectors facing supply chain constraints, and fields with low domestic production rates but short technology advancement cycles [1][4] - **Key Sectors for Investment**: The report highlights several sub-sectors within the mechanical industry, including: - **Semiconductor Equipment**: Low domestic production rates, with photolithography machines near zero, inspection segments below 5%, and testing machines under 10% [12] - **Scientific Instruments**: Companies are encouraged to enhance market share through continuous R&D [12] - **High-end Equipment**: Low domestic production rates for five-axis machine tools (approximately 10%) and high-end CNC systems (in single digits) [12] Historical Context and Market Dynamics - **Past Market Trends**: The mechanical sector has historically been influenced by external pressures and domestic policy support. Key events include: - **2018-2020**: U.S.-China trade tensions led to a surge in high-end equipment manufacturing, particularly in the semiconductor sector [7][8] - **2021**: Further U.S. restrictions on the semiconductor industry prompted domestic companies to focus on mature process chip production [7] - **2022 Onwards**: The addition of Chinese wafer manufacturers to the U.S. entity list had a limited initial impact, with companies performing well despite market concerns [7][8] Investment Opportunities and Recommendations - **Focus on Low Domestic Production**: The emphasis is on sectors with low domestic production rates that have the potential for significant growth due to policy support and market demand [2][10] - **Encouragement for Investors**: Investors are urged to explore specific stocks within the self-sufficiency strategy, particularly in the semiconductor and high-end equipment sectors, where valuations may not be high [11] Additional Important Points - **Technological Progress and Policy Catalysts**: The acceleration of technological advancements and supportive policies is expected to create substantial investment opportunities in the mechanical sector [11] - **Long-term Viability**: The sustainability of the self-sufficiency sector's growth is contingent on achieving higher domestic production rates and the ability of companies to convert orders into performance to manage valuations [9]