Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market's short - term trend is uncertain, with high - level volatility likely to increase this month. In the medium term, despite external trade frictions, the Chinese economy will continue to develop, and the bull market will resume after the market's risk appetite recovers. [17][18] - For different commodities, their trends are affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international trade situations. Traders should adjust their strategies according to specific commodity characteristics and market conditions. [10][11][12][14][16] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro News - The implementation of special port dues for US ships starts today. Ships meeting certain conditions related to the US need to pay the fee, with some exemptions. [6] - In September, China's goods trade imports and exports reached 4.04 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%. Exports were 2.34 trillion yuan, up 8.4%, and imports were 1.7 trillion yuan, up 7.5%, with consecutive 4 - month year - on - year double - growth. The third - quarter trade also had a 6% year - on - year increase. However, China's rare - earth exports in September were 4000.3 tons, showing a third - consecutive - month decline. [6] - China's three major telecom operators have obtained approval for eSIM mobile phone service commercial trials, and Apple will launch the iPhone Air in China. [7] - The 2025 Nobel Economics Prize is awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt. [7] - Regarding Pakistan - US rare - earth cooperation and the Dutch government's restrictions on Chinese chip manufacturers, the Chinese Foreign Ministry has responded, emphasizing market principles and the protection of legitimate rights. [7] - Since October 13, 24:00, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have been reduced by 75 yuan and 70 yuan per ton respectively, with a 0.06 - yuan per - liter reduction for 92 - octane, 95 - octane gasoline, and 0 - octane diesel. It is expected that the next round of refined - oil price adjustments may be downward. [8] 2. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 2.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut futures on October 13 closed at 7902 yuan/ton, up 1.10%, breaking through the shock range. In the short term, it may continue to be strong, but there is pressure around 7950 yuan and support at 7800 yuan. [10] - Sugar futures on October 13 closed at 5470 yuan/ton, down 0.85%, weaker than expected. After breaking the 5500 - yuan support, there is limited downward space, and it is recommended to wait for stabilization before going long. [10] - Corn futures on October 13 closed at 2092 yuan/ton, down 1.83%, with supply pressure from new - season corn in the Northeast and cautious demand. It is recommended to go short, focusing on the 2080 - 2090 - yuan support. [10] - The pig market is under pressure due to post - holiday supply release and consumption decline, with prices continuing to fall and the market in a weak and bottom - exploring state. [10] - Egg prices are expected to be low - volatile, with some regions continuing to be weak. It is recommended to go long on the far - month contract and conduct inter - month reverse spreads. [12] - Cotton futures on October 10 closed at 13325 yuan/ton, up 0.26%, with supply pressure from new cotton and weak demand. It is expected to be bottom - oscillating, with pressure at 13400 yuan and support at 13200 yuan. [12] 2.2 Energy and Chemicals - The domestic urea market price is weak, with good low - price sales. The daily output is expected to decline briefly and then recover. Attention should be paid to downstream follow - up and Indian tenders. [12] - For caustic soda, the market supply is relatively abundant, and the 2601 contract is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the support at the 2400 - point level. [12] - For coking coal and coke, the port prices are stable, and the steel mills' procurement is cautious. The prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. [12][14] 2.3 Industrial Metals - For copper and aluminum, due to the intensification of Sino - US trade frictions, prices have dropped significantly, and short - term adjustment risks should be noted. [14] - For alumina, the supply is in excess, and the 2601 contract is running weakly. Attention should be paid to factors such as bauxite. [14] - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, the spot market has weak transactions, and the prices are under pressure in mid - month. The short - term downward space is limited, and they are expected to be weakly volatile. [14] - For ferroalloys, the fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to the impact of macro and Sino - US tariff frictions on the financial market. [16] - For lithium carbonate, the price is under pressure due to increased supply and weak demand. Attention should be paid to the support at 71800 yuan. [16] 2.4 Options and Finance - On October 13, the three major A - share indexes corrected, with more falling stocks. The trading volume was 2.37 trillion. For stock - index futures and options, the basis and implied volatility changed. Trend investors can consider buying bullish call spreads, and volatility investors can consider buying straddles or wide - straddles. [16] - The A - share market is in high - level shock, and it is recommended to buy on dips and reduce positions when the market sentiment is high. [17][18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes China's stance on trade relations with the U.S., asserting that China is open to dialogue but will respond firmly to threats and restrictions [2][3] - China has clarified its position regarding the U.S. threats of imposing 100% tariffs and highlighted that its export control measures on rare earths are legitimate actions to safeguard national security [2] - The article mentions that China has communicated its export control measures to the U.S. through bilateral dialogue mechanisms before their implementation [2] Group 2 - The article reiterates that both countries have significant common interests and potential for cooperation, suggesting that mutual benefits can be achieved through respectful and equal negotiations [3] - It criticizes the U.S. for its inconsistent approach of seeking dialogue while simultaneously threatening new restrictions, urging the U.S. to correct its actions and engage sincerely in discussions [3] - The article calls for maintaining the achievements of previous negotiations and emphasizes the importance of managing differences through dialogue to promote a healthy and stable development of Sino-U.S. economic relations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes its commitment to maintaining national security and international stability through its export control measures, particularly regarding rare earth elements, while criticizing the U.S. for its discriminatory practices and threats of tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: Export Control Measures - China asserts that its export control measures on rare earths are legitimate actions based on legal regulations aimed at improving its export control system [1]. - The Chinese government maintains that its export controls do not equate to a ban, as applications that meet regulations will continue to be approved [1]. Group 2: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The Chinese side expresses a consistent stance on the trade conflict, indicating readiness to engage in both dialogue and confrontation, highlighting the mutual benefits of cooperation [2]. - The Chinese government urges the U.S. to correct its erroneous practices and demonstrate sincerity in negotiations, emphasizing the importance of maintaining the outcomes of previous discussions [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak, and the prices of finished steel products trended downwards. Although the direct impact of tariffs on steel is small, steel prices may decline in the context of a weakening commodity market. The current weak reality pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term, and attention should be paid to the policy strength during the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - For the black sector, the research team is not pessimistic. Instead of short - selling, it believes that finding callback positions to do long may be more cost - effective. The key time point may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel Products (including rebar and hot - rolled coil) - **Rebar**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3083 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.64%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 10910 tons, and the open interest increased by 26595 lots. The terminal demand dropped to a new low, inventory continued to accumulate, and the inventory - to - sales ratio increased significantly [1]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3261 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-0.73%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 2058 tons, and the open interest increased by 24873 lots. The production decreased slightly, but the apparent demand decreased more significantly, and the inventory increase was prominent [1]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main contract (I2601) closed at 804.50 yuan/ton, up 1.19% (+9.50). The open interest increased by 9148 lots to 48.53 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 796 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 42.15 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 4.98% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overseas iron ore shipments decreased seasonally. The daily average pig iron output was 241.54 million tons, down 0.27 million tons. The profitability of steel mills continued to decline. If the finished steel situation weakens after the holiday, the iron ore price may adjust accordingly [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Manganese Silicon**: The main contract (SM601) closed down 0.24% at 5746 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a premium of 124 yuan/ton over the futures. Its fundamentals are not ideal, and it is likely to follow the black sector [8][10]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract (SF511) closed down 0.55% at 5406 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 244 yuan/ton over the futures. Its supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and it is also likely to follow the black sector [8][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract (SI2511) closed at 8805 yuan/ton, up 1.38% (+120). The open interest increased by 13950 lots to 429365 lots. The supply - demand situation has no immediate concerns, and the far - month contract valuation is expected to rise [12][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract (PS2511) closed at 48740 yuan/ton, down 0.46% (-225). The open interest decreased by 107 lots to 246615 lots. The market may enter a fundamental correction stage, and the price is under pressure in the short term [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The main contract closed at 1179 yuan/ton, down 2.32% (-28). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 346.9 million cases (+5.84%). The short - term price is expected to continue the stable and narrow - range oscillation pattern [18][19]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract closed at 1247 yuan/ton, up 0.56% (+7). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 5.99 million tons (+5.84%). The short - term market is expected to continue the stable and weak trend [20][21].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index opened lower, dropping 656 points to 25634, and at one point fell by 954 points to a low of 25336, ultimately closing down 400 points or 1.52% at 25889, with a total turnover of 4903.66 million [3] - Among 88 blue-chip stocks, 63 declined while only 19 rose, indicating a bearish market sentiment [3] - The technology index experienced a near 5% drop, but some buying interest was noted in the afternoon, leading to a narrowing of losses for several tech stocks [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic and Trade Data - In September, China's exports in USD terms increased by 8.3%, surpassing expectations of 6.6%, while imports rose by 7.4%, significantly above the anticipated 1.8% [6] - For the first three quarters of the year, China's total trade value in USD reached 4.68 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, with exports growing by 6.1% and imports declining by 1.1% [7] - China's trade surplus for the first three quarters was 8750.8 billion, indicating a robust trade performance despite global economic challenges [7] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - China Unicom has officially opened eSIM reservation channels, with over 60,000 online appointments reported [11] - China Mobile also launched eSIM business reservations, with over 150,000 registrations within four hours of opening [12] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing has established a new subsidiary in Dubai to expand its commodity business, focusing on pricing management services for the metals market [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various sectors including macro - finance, black commodities, non - ferrous metals, agriculture, and energy - chemical industries. It assesses the market trends, price movements, and influencing factors of different commodities, offering corresponding investment strategies and outlooks based on fundamental and technical analyses [12][16][22]. Summary by Directory Macro Information - China imposes special port fees on US ships starting today, and in September, China's goods trade imports and exports reached 4.04 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%. Exports were 2.34 trillion yuan, up 8.4%, and imports were 1.7 trillion yuan, up 7.5%. China's rare earth exports in September were 4000.3 tons, showing a decline for the third consecutive month [9]. - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference will be held from October 27th to 30th in Beijing. Fed's Paulson supports two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year. In September, China's soybean and iron ore imports reached record highs, and coal imports were the second - highest on record. OPEC slightly raised the global crude oil demand growth forecast for this year [10]. Macro Finance - **A - share Strategy**: Consider a buy - on - dips approach and pay attention to index rotation. Although there are uncertainties in the US - China trade conflict, the actual impact may be limited. Be cautious of short - term market fluctuations if the 100% tariff is imposed [12]. - **Treasury Futures**: Adopt an oscillatory approach and focus on the odds of short - term bonds. The bond market is expected to oscillate, but there is an overall optimistic bias based on odds and future fundamentals [13][14]. Black Commodities - **Steel**: Steel may experience oscillatory adjustments, and iron ore will maintain high - level oscillations. The real demand improvement in the steel downstream is limited, and the market may have an oscillatory or off - peak season performance. The cost of raw materials is expected to remain between valley and peak electricity costs [16][17]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke may continue to oscillate weakly in the short term. The supply of coking coal is gradually recovering, and the demand from steel mills is strong, but the post - holiday replenishment demand is weak [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloy market is expected to maintain a weak and stable trend. Pay attention to the stop - profit points for short positions and the entry points for long positions during sharp drops in the next 1 - 2 weeks [18]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Hold a bearish view on soda ash and consider taking short - term profits. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for glass. The supply - demand contradiction in soda ash is difficult to resolve, and the inventory of glass is relatively high [19][20]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Alumina prices are expected to continue to seek a bottom, and shorting on rallies can be considered [22]. - **Zinc**: Hold short positions. The domestic zinc market has weak fundamentals, with increasing inventory and a downward - trending price. The global zinc price may show a resonance decline [23]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon will oscillate within a range. For polysilicon, wait and see the progress of the industry conference this week [24]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Adopt a short - on - rallies strategy. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The international and domestic cotton markets are affected by macro factors and supply - demand changes [26]. - **Sugar**: Adopt a short - selling strategy. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus of 740 million tons in the 2025/26 season. The domestic sugar market is under supply pressure [27][28]. - **Eggs**: Gradually stop - profit and reduce short positions, and wait and see. The supply - demand of eggs is loose, but the downside space of the spot is limited [28][29]. - **Apples**: Consider a light - position long - on - dips strategy. The new - season apples have a strong expectation of a high opening price, but the price may decline as the listing volume increases [30]. - **Corn**: Consider a long - on - dips strategy for the 07 contract or sell out - of - the - money call options for the 01 contract. The new - season corn supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure, but there may be support from state purchases [30]. - **Red Dates**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The market price is stable, and the consumption is weak, but the opening price has a high expectation [31]. - **Pigs**: Hold short positions for near - month contracts. The post - holiday supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak, and the spot price is likely to continue to be weak [31]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Hold existing short positions. The supply - demand contradiction of crude oil is that supply exceeds demand, and the price center is moving down. There may be a short - term price repair [33]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price of fuel oil will follow the trend of crude oil. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak [34]. - **Plastics**: Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly. The supply pressure is high, and the downstream demand is weak [35]. - **Methanol**: Adopt a bullish - oscillatory view. The port inventory pressure is large, but the arrival of Iranian goods may be affected, which may lead to a short - term rebound [36]. - **Caustic Soda**: The futures price is expected to oscillate. The inventory of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises is slowly declining, and the spot price is slightly stronger [38]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt will follow the trend of crude oil. The asphalt's own fundamentals are stable, and the demand in the north is entering a critical period [39]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to continue to be weak. Be cautious when short - selling during sharp drops. Pay attention to macro policies, device changes, and downstream procurement sentiment [47]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Adopt a long - term bearish view. The supply is abundant, and the demand is difficult to strengthen beyond expectations [42]. - **Urea**: Adopt an oscillatory approach. Pay attention to the impact of cost and supply changes on urea futures [46]. - **Paper - related Products**: - **Printing Paper**: It is expected to oscillate. Consider a light - position long - on - dips strategy or sell put options [40]. - **Paper Pulp**: Observe the port de - stocking and spot trading. Consider going long on the 01 contract on dips if the spot is stable [44]. - **Log**: Pay attention to the implementation of spot price support and downstream orders in the peak season. Consider a light - position long - on - dips strategy if conditions are met [45]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The polyester chain is expected to continue to oscillate weakly. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the cost support is weak [41].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes its commitment to maintaining national security and international stability through its export control measures, particularly regarding rare earth elements, while criticizing the U.S. for its discriminatory practices and threats of tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The Chinese stance on the trade war is clear: they are willing to engage in negotiations but will also respond firmly to U.S. actions [2]. - There is a recognition of mutual interests and cooperation potential between the U.S. and China, with past negotiations demonstrating the ability to resolve issues through respectful dialogue [2]. - The Chinese government urges the U.S. to correct its approach, emphasizing the need for sincerity in negotiations and adherence to previous agreements made by the leaders of both countries [2]. Group 2: Export Control Measures - China's export control measures are framed as legitimate actions to enhance its regulatory framework, not as outright bans, with a commitment to approving compliant applications [1]. - The Chinese government has communicated its export control measures to the U.S. through bilateral channels prior to their implementation, indicating a desire for transparency [1]. - The U.S. is criticized for its broad interpretation of national security and for imposing a series of restrictions that harm Chinese interests and disrupt the atmosphere for trade talks [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes its commitment to maintaining national security and international stability through its export control measures, particularly regarding rare earth elements, while criticizing the U.S. for its discriminatory practices and threats of tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Relations - China has consistently stated its position on the trade war, indicating readiness to engage in both conflict and dialogue, highlighting the mutual benefits of cooperation between China and the U.S. [2]. - The Chinese side has maintained communication within the framework of the China-U.S. economic and trade negotiation mechanism, asserting that solutions can be found through mutual respect and equal consultation [2]. Group 2: Export Control Measures - China's export control measures are described as legitimate actions based on laws and regulations, aimed at improving its export control system rather than outright bans [1]. - The Chinese government has communicated its export control measures to the U.S. through bilateral dialogue mechanisms prior to their implementation [1]. Group 3: U.S. Actions - The U.S. has been accused of abusing export controls and implementing a series of restrictive measures against China, which have harmed China's interests and disrupted the atmosphere for economic talks [1]. - China urges the U.S. to correct its erroneous practices and demonstrate sincerity in negotiations, emphasizing the importance of maintaining the hard-won results of previous discussions [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses China's stance on recent export control measures regarding rare earth materials and the ongoing trade tensions with the United States, emphasizing China's commitment to maintaining national security and international stability while criticizing the U.S. for its discriminatory practices and threats of tariffs [1][2][4][5]. Group 1: Export Control Measures - China has implemented export control measures on rare earth materials as a legitimate action to enhance its export control system, citing the importance of these materials in military applications amid global instability [4]. - The Chinese government assures that these export controls do not equate to a ban on exports, as applications that meet regulations will continue to be approved [4][5]. - Prior to the announcement, China communicated these measures through bilateral export control dialogue mechanisms to relevant countries [4][5]. Group 2: U.S. Tariff Threats - The U.S. has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods in response to China's export controls, which China views as a double standard and an abuse of national security concerns [5][7]. - The U.S. has a significantly larger export control list, with over 3,000 items compared to China's 900, indicating a disparity in the application of export controls [7]. - China expresses strong opposition to the U.S. actions, stating that such measures severely damage legitimate business interests and disrupt international trade order [7][8]. Group 3: Call for Dialogue - China maintains an open stance for dialogue, stating that both countries have extensive common interests and cooperation potential, and urges the U.S. to correct its approach and engage in sincere negotiations [2][6]. - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of mutual respect and equal consultation in resolving trade issues, advocating for a stable and sustainable development of Sino-U.S. economic relations [2][6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by factors such as Sino-US trade frictions, Fed interest rate policies, and supply-demand relationships in various industries. Different sectors show different trends, with some facing pressure and others having potential opportunities [2][3][4] - Sino-US trade relations are a significant factor influencing the market, and their development will have an impact on multiple industries, including metals, agriculture, and shipping [3][4][12] Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - On Monday, A-shares opened lower due to weekend news but recovered during the day. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.19%, and the four major stock index futures contracts all declined. The basis spreads of the four major stock index futures contracts fluctuated narrowly [2][3] - The market is affected by Sino-US trade frictions. The short-term risk appetite may be suppressed, but the medium- to long-term upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to observe first and then look for opportunities [4] Bond Futures - Bond futures opened high and closed lower, with all contracts closing up. The spot bond yields rebounded. The market is affected by factors such as the easing of Sino-US relations and changes in risk appetite. It is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [5][7] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Due to the intensification of Sino-US trade frictions and the US government shutdown, the market's concerns have not been truly alleviated. The dollar index has strengthened, and precious metals have reached new highs under short squeeze trading. It is expected that precious metals will continue to be bullish in the future, but short-term fluctuations may occur [9] - It is recommended to buy precious metals at a low price above 910 yuan and set stop-profit and stop-loss points. For silver, it is recommended to maintain a long position above $50 [10] Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The spot prices of container shipping on the European line are showing a downward trend, and the futures market is also under pressure. The macro factors are highly uncertain, and it is recommended to observe cautiously [11][12] Commodity Futures - Non-Ferrous Metals Copper - The price of copper is running strongly due to the easing of tariff concerns. The supply of copper mines is tight, and the demand has strong resilience. It is recommended to take profit on long positions at a high price and pay attention to the support level of 84,000 - 85,000 yuan [12][17] Alumina - The supply of alumina is sufficient, and the spot price is falling. It is expected that the supply will continue to be in excess in October, and the price will be under pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the cost-profit change and overseas production growth [17][20] Aluminum - The price of aluminum is oscillating at a high level. The macro environment is favorable, and the supply and demand are in a tight balance. It is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the inventory reduction rhythm and downstream acceptance of high prices [21][23] Aluminum Alloy - The price of aluminum alloy is following the trend of aluminum. The supply is affected by factors such as raw material supply and tax policies, and the demand is recovering moderately. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the upstream raw material supply and demand recovery rhythm [23][26] Zinc - The price of zinc is oscillating. The supply is abundant, and the demand is not outstanding. It is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the supply and demand changes and inventory performance [27][31] Tin - The price of tin is oscillating. The supply is tight, and the demand is weak. It is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to observe [31][34] Nickel - The price of nickel is affected by macro factors and news from the ore end. The supply is increasing, and the demand is diverse. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [34][37] Stainless Steel - The price of stainless steel is oscillating downward. The macro environment is weak, and the supply is increasing while the demand is not strong. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the macro expectations and steel mill dynamics [38][40] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate is oscillating. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the macro risks [42][44] Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - The price of steel is weakly consolidating. The Sino-US trade friction has a negative impact on the market, but the supply and demand are basically balanced, and the inventory pressure is not large. It is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of 3,000 yuan for rebar and 3,200 yuan for hot-rolled coil [45][46] Iron Ore - The price of iron ore is oscillating strongly. The supply is affected by factors such as shipping volume and negotiation results, and the demand is at a high level but slightly decreasing. It is recommended to go long on iron ore 2601 contract at a low price and consider the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short hot-rolled coil [47][50] Coking Coal - The price of coking coal is experiencing a phased correction. The supply is affected by factors such as mine production and import volume, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2601 contract at a high price and consider the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal [51][53] Coke - The price of coke is oscillating downward. The first round of price increase has been implemented, but the space for further increase is limited, and there is a possibility of price reduction in the future. It is recommended to short the coke 2601 contract at a high price and consider the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coke [54][58] Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - The price of meal is under pressure due to the uncertain Sino-US trade relations and supply pressure. The supply of soybeans in the fourth quarter of 2025 is sufficient, but there is a gap expected in the first quarter of 2026. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of the M2601 contract and the 1-5 positive spread opportunity [59][61] Live Pigs - The price of live pigs is at a low level. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short live pigs on the futures market and consider the LH1-5 and LH3-7 reverse spread strategies [62][63]