Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 11960, with an opening price of 12290 and a current price of 12083, reflecting a 1.03% increase [1] - The highest price reached today is 12306, while the lowest is 11912, indicating a short-term bullish trend in silver futures [1] - The recent upward momentum in silver prices is notable, with expectations for targets around 12500 in the near term [2] Group 2 - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release September non-farm payroll data, marking the end of a data interruption due to government shutdown [2] - The report is expected to show an increase of 50,000 jobs in both public and private sectors, an improvement from the initial report of 22,000 in August, although it still indicates a weak labor market [2] - Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas anticipates that the September report, along with revisions for July and August, will show a slightly better outlook than expected, but the labor market remains fragile [2]

美联储官员普遍认为劳动力市场处于逐步降温状态，但未出现急剧恶化。一方面失业率保持低位、失业 救济金申请人数不多；另一方面就业创造极其缓慢。与会官员认为就业大概率不会迅速下滑。 来源：中国金融信息网 新华财经纽约11月19日电（记者徐静）美国联邦储备委员会19日公布的10月货币政策会议纪要显示，由 于经济温和扩张、劳动力市场虽逐步降温但未出现急剧恶化，美联储官员就12月份是否进一步降息出现 显著分歧。 会议纪要显示，美联储官员注意到，美国经济活动一直以温和的速度扩张，今年就业增长放缓，失业率 略有上升，通胀率自年初以来有所上升，目前仍处于较高水平。鉴于风险平衡变化，美联储在10月29日 结束货币政策会议后宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至3.75%至4.00%之间。这是美联储 继9月17日降息25个基点后再次降息，也是自2024年9月以来第五次降息。 由于消费者支出表现超预期强劲，为经济提供了有力支撑，美联储官员10月对经济增长的判断从9月 的"增速放缓"上调为"以温和速度扩张"，但也提及政府"停摆"会暂时拖累经济活动，且整体经济前景仍 存在较高的不确定性。 在10月货币政策会议上，美联储公开市场委员 ...

Core Insights - The upcoming jobs report is expected to show a slight improvement in the labor market, with a forecasted gain of 50,000 jobs in September, up from 22,000 in August, indicating a soft labor market overall [3][10] - The report will be the first official jobs data released since the government shutdown, providing some insights for investors and policymakers, although it may not significantly alter the current economic outlook [2][4] - The Federal Reserve is cautious about making decisions based on limited data, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell describing the current situation as "driving in the fog" [4][8] Labor Market Data - The unemployment rate is projected to remain at 4.3%, with average hourly earnings increasing by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, consistent with previous months [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will not release an October jobs report separately, combining it with the November report, which has been delayed to December 16 [6] - Goldman Sachs anticipates a total of 80,000 jobs created in September but predicts a decline of 50,000 jobs in October due to the expiration of a federal program [8][9] Economic Outlook - Economists suggest that the September report and revisions for July and August may indicate a slightly brighter outlook than previously assumed, although the overall economic conditions remain uncertain [2][10] - The BLS has updated its release schedule for various data points, reflecting the ongoing challenges in accurately assessing the labor market due to the recent government shutdown [5][7] - Other indicators, such as private payroll data and layoff announcements, are being monitored to gauge the labor market's status amid the uncertainty [7]

哈塞特在周一接受媒体采访时指出，当前就业市场正在发出复杂信号。他解释道，企业发现人工智能极大提高了现有员工的生产效率，以至于他们不一定需 要雇佣刚毕业的大学生。这种变化可能导致劳动力市场出现短暂停顿。 关于货币政策，哈塞特强调现在是美联储真正以数据为导向的时候了。经济学家们认为，劳动力市场走弱可能促使美联储下月再次降息二十五个基点。 尽管如此，哈塞特对经济前景保持乐观。他认为由于产出增长和收入增长非常强劲，自由市场将相对快速地解决这个问题。随着新的消费方式出现，这种由 技术调整引起的劳动力市场波动不会持续太久。 白宫经济顾问凯文·哈塞特近日公开表示，人工智能技术的广泛应用正显著提升员工生产率，这可能导致企业放缓招聘步伐，使劳动力市场进入一段"平静 期"。不过他强调，这种由AI引发的就业市场疲软将是暂时现象。 数据显示，人工智能对就业市场的影响已经显现。斯坦福大学一项研究发现，在AI暴露度最高的职业中，二十二至二十五岁早期职业者的就业率相对于暴 露度较低的职业下降了百分之十三。另一份报告则直接指出，人工智能在今年一至九月期间导致了一万七千三百多个岗位被裁减。 ...

ADP的劳动力市场数据有助于填补美国官方就业数据的空白。官方数据因史上最长美国政府停摆而延迟发布。虽然统计机构的资金已恢复，但10月经济数 据的发布时间仍不明确。 劳工统计局将于周四发布9月就业报告，预计该报告将显示美国非农就业人数较上月增加5.5万人。 ADP分析指出，在就业增长整体放缓的背景下，新雇佣比例仍持续走高，反映出员工离职率正在上升。数据进一步显示，美国55岁及以上员工占比已从 2015年的不到25%攀升至当前的36%，劳动力结构老龄化正推动招聘逻辑发生根本变化，雇主不再主要为业务扩张而招聘，而是越来越多地为填补离职缺 口进行"替换型招聘"。 劳动力市场亦出现松动迹象。10月，亚马逊、Target等多家企业相继宣布裁员计划。据Challenge统计，该月计划裁员人数创下二十多年来同期最高纪录。 新雇佣占比上升 ADP最新工资数据显示，10月新雇佣员工占比升至4.4%，较去年同期的3.9%有所上升。这一趋势表面上与整体招聘放缓相矛盾，实则揭示了劳动力市场 的结构性转变。 就业市场的疲软已逐渐影响劳动者信心。Harris于10月23日至25日进行的民调显示，55%的在职美国人担心失业，反映出劳动力心态 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - China's October economic data shows that fixed - asset investment and export growth are lower than market expectations, while social consumer goods retail sales growth slightly exceeds expectations. The growth of industrial added value above designated size and service industry production index is not as expected. Real estate sales and prices continue to decline. New social financing and credit scale in October are lower than market expectations. The central bank will continue to optimize intermediate variables of monetary policy. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate slightly more in the short - term, and the impact of stock indices should be continuously monitored. [3][4] Summary by Directory Market Review - On Tuesday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher and fluctuated horizontally throughout the day. The 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 rose 0.06%, the 10 - year T2512 rose 0.03%, the 5 - year TF2512 rose 0.03%, and the 2 - year TS2512 rose 0.01% [3] Important Information - Open market: On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 407.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 403.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, resulting in a net investment of 3.7 billion yuan [3] - Funding market: On Tuesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funding market rose slightly compared to the previous trading day. DR001's weighted average was 1.53% (previous day: 1.51%), and DR007's weighted average was 1.52% (unchanged from the previous day) [3] - Cash bond market: On Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.01 BP to 1.43%, the 5 - year increased by 0.53 BP to 1.59%, the 10 - year increased by 0.12 BP to 1.81%, and the 30 - year decreased by 0.10 BP to 2.14% [3] - According to ADP Research, in the four weeks ending November 1st, US companies laid off an average of 2,500 people per week, an improvement from the previous week's average reduction of 11,250 people [3] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 48.9%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 51.1%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 49.7%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 31.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 18.4% [3] Market Logic - China's October economic data shows mixed performance. Fixed - asset investment and export growth are lower than expected, while social consumer goods retail sales growth slightly exceeds expectations. Industrial added value and service industry production index growth are not as expected. Real estate sales and prices continue to decline. New social financing and credit scale in October are lower than market expectations. The central bank will optimize monetary policy intermediate variables. The Wande All - A index fell 0.15% on Tuesday with slightly reduced trading volume. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate slightly more in the short - term, and the impact of stock indices should be monitored [3][4] Trading Strategy - Traders should conduct band - trading operations [4]

Core Insights - The recent jobless claims data indicates that 232,000 individuals filed for unemployment in the week ending October 18, which is an increase from 219,000 in late September, marking a significant moment as it is the first data released post the government shutdown [1][6]. Economic Implications - The jobless claims figure provides insights into economic trends that were previously obscured during the government shutdown, suggesting that the labor market remains stable without alarming signs for economists [3]. - Forecasters anticipate a modest job growth report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, indicating that the economy added jobs in September, although job growth has slowed significantly since summer due to various uncertainties, including tariffs and immigration policies [4]. Labor Market Analysis - The overall assessment of the labor market suggests a deterioration, yet it is not on the verge of recession, as noted by Dean Baker, a senior economist [5].

钛媒体App 11月19日消息，美国里士满联储主席巴尔金对通胀前景表示乐观，同时指出劳动力市场可能 比现有数据显示的更疲软。巴尔金强调，新增就业与招聘职位数量下降，加之失业救济申领数据基本持 平，表明就业市场趋缓。"我们的调研表明，劳动力市场可能比这些数字反映的更弱，"巴尔金在周二于 弗吉尼亚州温彻斯特发表的讲话中表示。"如果你问企业如今如何看待劳动力市场，他们会说'平衡'。 但当他们进一步解释这种'平衡'时，情况似乎并非如此。"巴尔金提到，亚马逊、Verizon和Target等大型 企业近期的裁员公告"让人对劳动力市场更加谨慎"。他还表示，企业联系人对里士满联储的反馈让他认 为，"通胀仍略高，但不太可能大幅上升"。在会后接受采访时，巴尔金表示他同意美联储主席鲍威尔关 于12月是否降息"远未成定局"的说法。（广角观察） ...

智通财经APP获悉，里士满联邦储备银行行长托马斯·巴金对通胀前景持积极看法，但同时暗示劳动力 市场可能比现有数据所反映的更为疲软。巴金强调了一些显示就业增长和职位发布数量下降、而失业救 济申请人数基本保持稳定的数据。 "我们的调查表明，劳动力市场的状况比这些数字所显示的稍弱一些，"巴金在为周二弗吉尼亚州温彻斯 特一场活动准备的发言中称，"如果询问企业如何看待当前的劳动力市场，他们会说'平衡'。但当他们对 这种'平衡'展开更详细的描述时，似乎又不是那么回事。" 巴金表示，亚马逊(AMZN.US)、Verizon(VZ.US)和塔吉特(TGT.US)等大公司近期宣布的裁员消息，"为 劳动力市场提供了额外的谨慎理由"。 在最近的两次会议上均下调利率后，美联储决策者对是否继续降息已产生分歧。这场辩论正变得愈发公 开化，双方阵营的官员在近期的讲话中各执一词。一些人呼吁美联储目前应保持利率不变，认为通胀压 力比失业率上升的威胁更大;而对通胀前景持更乐观看法的人则表示，美联储应进一步降息以缓冲劳动 力市场。 他们的判断因联邦政府停摆结束后经济数据延迟发布而变得复杂。巴金将这种情况形容为"试图在漆黑 一片中把船驶向岸边，而灯 ...

Key Points - The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose to 232,000 for the week ending October 18, an increase from 219,000 for the week ending September 20, and above the Dow Jones consensus of 223,000 claims [1][2] - Continuing jobless claims increased slightly to 1.957 million from 1.947 million the previous week [2] - The Labor Department's jobless claims data has not been updated for the previous three weeks due to the government shutdown, but updates are expected soon [2][3] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics is anticipated to release delayed unemployment data, with September's jobs report scheduled for Thursday, projecting an addition of 58,000 nonfarm jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.3% [3]