Group 1 - Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve marks the first time a sitting U.S. president has visited the Fed in nearly 20 years, making him the fourth president to do so [2] - The visit coincides with rising criticism regarding the Fed's $2.5 billion renovation project, suggesting Trump's interest may relate to his background in real estate development [2] - Trump has been pressuring Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates from the current target range of 4.25%-4.50% to 1% to alleviate fiscal pressure [2] Group 2 - Market expectations indicate that the Fed is likely to maintain interest rates in the upcoming meeting, with only about a 60% chance of a rate cut in September according to the CME FedWatch tool [3] - Recent data shows a decrease in initial jobless claims, indicating a resilient U.S. labor market, which supports the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged [4] Group 3 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to pause interest rate cuts for the first time in over a year, citing that current inflation has reached the mid-term target of 2% [5] - ECB President Christine Lagarde warned of downside risks to economic growth, particularly due to escalating global trade tensions [5] - There are expectations that the ECB may consider a rate cut in September, with traders anticipating at least one more cut this year [5]

Core Viewpoint - The strong labor market, increase in real income, and robust private sector balance sheets are supporting consumer spending [1] Group 1 - The labor market remains strong, contributing positively to economic stability [1] - Real income has seen an increase, which enhances consumer purchasing power [1] - Private sector balance sheets are described as robust, indicating financial health and capacity for investment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Chairman Bullock expects core inflation to gradually decline to 2.5% despite ongoing global economic uncertainties and unpredictability [1] Economic Indicators - Monthly data suggests that core Consumer Price Index (CPI) may not meet expectations [1] - A significant drop in CPI alongside only a slight increase in unemployment rate is surprising [1] Monetary Policy - The committee is seeking a cautious and gradual path for monetary easing [1] - The RBA's rate hikes have been smaller compared to other central banks, indicating that extensive rate cuts may not be necessary [1] Labor Market - The labor market remains tight, with expectations of some easing by the end of the year [1] - Leading indicators do not suggest a significant rise in the unemployment rate [1]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor, Philip Lowe, indicated that the labor market is only slowly easing, with the unemployment rate remaining relatively low [1] - There is no specific target set for the unemployment rate or the number of job reductions [1]

美联储古尔斯比：如果开始看到劳动力市场恶化，这将成为我政策考量中的一个重要因素。 ...

Core Insights - The significant reduction in immigration and large-scale deportation policies are expected to negatively impact economic growth, contrary to claims that new budget proposals will boost growth above 3% [1][2] - The new budget allocates $70 billion for border security and $75 billion for domestic enforcement, which may lead to a decrease in population and labor force, adversely affecting economic growth [1][2] - A projected sharp decline in undocumented immigrants this year could lower U.S. GDP growth by 0.8 percentage points, given the historical average growth rate of about 2.5% [1][2] Immigration Policy Impact - If the Trump administration achieves its goal of deporting one million people annually, the economic drag could increase to 1.5 percentage points by 2027 [2] - The current U.S. economy is nearing full employment, with an unemployment rate of 2.7% for native workers in 2024, making the impact of reduced immigration on the labor market more pronounced [2] - The claim that limiting immigration will create job opportunities for native workers is challenged by data showing that native workers occupy only 1/8 of the jobs held by undocumented immigrants, which are often low-paying and physically demanding [2] Labor Market Dynamics - The complementary relationship between native workers and undocumented immigrants suggests that deportation may not create jobs for natives, as evidenced by past enforcement programs that reduced native employment rates and wages [2] - Automation and AI are unlikely to quickly fill the gap left by undocumented immigrants, as current AI applications primarily replace professional and clerical jobs rather than manual labor [3] - Strict immigration controls may deter STEM workers and students, delaying technological advancements and negatively impacting long-term productivity growth [3] Future Considerations - The U.S. faces a demographic challenge with an aging workforce and declining birth rates, necessitating a forward-looking immigration policy rather than merely reducing immigration and increasing deportations [3] - Without immigration, the U.S. population is projected to begin declining by 2033, which could constrain economic growth [3] - To achieve its economic growth objectives, the administration should reconsider its restrictive immigration policies [3]

Group 1 - The overall data from the labor market is described as "good" by Federal Reserve Governor Waller [1] - The performance of the private sector is not as strong as previously thought [1] - There is a reluctance to pre-commit to any specific action ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting [1]

美联储理事沃勒：不需要太多就能扭转劳动力市场。 ...

【要闻速递】 美国劳工部报告显示，截至7月12日当周，初请失业金人数减少7000人至22.1万人，创三个月来最低水 平，低于市场预期的23.5万人。续请失业金人数小幅增加至195.6万人，但整体仍处于历史低位，表明劳 动力市场稳定支持了消费支出。 周五（7月18日）亚盘时段，现货白银震荡上行，最新白银价格交投于38.17美元，涨幅0.13%，美国劳 动力市场数据表现强劲，为美联储推迟降息提供了支撑，也对白银走势形成了短期压力。 全球最大白银ETF--iShares Silver Trust持仓较上日减少124.34吨，当前持仓量为14694.95吨。 【技术分析】 现货白银昨日开盘在37.914的位置后行情先拉升给出38.008的位置后行情强势回落，日线最低给到了 37.511的位置后行情强势拉升，日线最高触及到了38.16的位置后行情整理，日线最终收线在了38.128的 位置后行情以一根下影线很长的锤头形态收线，而这样的形态收尾后，今日银价目标看38.2和38.4- 38.6。 美国失业救济申请人数连续第五周下降，降至4月中旬以来的最低水平，显示就业市场保持韧性。经历5 月和6月的上升趋势后，每周申领人数已 ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller advocates for a rate cut this month to support a weakening labor market, marking a significant divergence from most of his colleagues who believe the job market remains strong [1][3][4] - Waller's speech emphasizes that inflation is near target levels and that the risks of a labor market deterioration warrant a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting [3][4] - He identifies a precarious balance in the labor market, supported by both hard data (employment numbers, unemployment rates) and soft data (business hiring intentions, consumer confidence) [3][4] Group 2 - Waller and Vice Chair Michelle Bowman are the only two Fed officials publicly supporting a rate cut this month, highlighting their minority position among those advocating for maintaining current rates [4] - Waller has previously held differing views from colleagues, particularly regarding the temporary impact of tariffs on inflation, and he stresses the need to focus on core inflation, which is close to the FOMC's 2% target [4][5] - Despite recent data showing that tariffs have begun to raise some prices, core inflation has remained below expectations for five consecutive months, alleviating concerns about persistent inflation [4][5] Group 3 - Waller warns that the risks of a weakening job market are significant enough to justify a rate cut, noting that while the economy is still growing, momentum has slowed considerably [5] - Other Fed officials express caution regarding the potential impacts of tariffs, suggesting a wait-and-see approach before deciding on rate cuts [5] - Market reactions indicate that investors expect the Fed to maintain rates this month, with a slightly higher than 50% probability of a rate cut in September, reflecting cautious sentiment amid internal Fed disagreements [5] Group 4 - Waller is considered a potential candidate to succeed Powell as Fed Chair after his term ends in May, and his current stance aligns with President Trump's calls for looser monetary policy, adding a political dimension to his economic views [6]