格隆汇8月13日｜据《商业内幕》，摩根大通经济学家Murat Tasci警告，AI将取代大批白领知识工作者 ——也就是从事"非例行性认知职业"的办公室工作者。考量到白领知识工作者约占美国所有家庭就业的 45%，这种转变也可能对整体经济构成巨大风险，可能出现经济复苏但就业机会没有相应增加、失业率 居高不下的现象。 根据摩根大通分析，近年来"非例行性认知"工作者占失业比例已超过例行性工作者。Tasci指出，AI对 就业市场的影响尚未显著冲击就业数据。美国整体失业率仍接近历史低点，7月约为4.2%。不过，该行 相信对白领知识工作者的压力可能随时间累积。 (责任编辑：宋政 HN002) 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

每经AI快讯，8月13日，韩国7月调整后失业率2.5%，预期2.6%。 ...

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has lowered the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.6%, marking the third rate cut this year, totaling a reduction of 75 basis points [1][2] - Inflation in Australia has significantly decreased since its peak in 2022, with June inflation at 2.1% and an expected annual inflation of 2.7%, approaching the target range of 2%-3% [2][5] - The RBA emphasizes the importance of maintaining price stability and full employment, considering further monetary easing appropriate as inflation continues to decline [5] Group 2 - The Australian dollar fell to 0.6505 against the US dollar following the RBA's decision, and the yield on three-year Australian government bonds dropped to 3.41% [6] - Global central banks are taking divergent paths in their monetary policies, with the Bank of England cutting rates to 4% while the European Central Bank has opted to keep rates unchanged [7][8] - The Canadian central bank maintained its policy rate at 2.75%, citing uncertainties from US tariff policies, while the Federal Reserve is also under pressure to consider rate cuts [8][9]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.60%, marking the third rate cut this year, with a total reduction of 75 basis points in 2023 [1] - The RBA emphasizes that maintaining price stability and full employment are its primary objectives, noting a decline in underlying inflation to around the midpoint of the 2-3% range and a slight easing in the labor market [1] - A recent survey indicated that 31 out of 34 experts predicted the rate cut, with AMP's Deputy Chief Economist suggesting that the moderate quarterly inflation data warranted the decision [1] Group 2 - The RBA highlighted the lagging effects of recent monetary policy easing and the uncertainty surrounding corporate pricing decisions, alongside global economic uncertainties that could pressure Australia's economic activity and inflation [2] - The decision comes at a delicate moment in global policy shifts, with potential implications for the Australian dollar, investor expectations, and the broader economic environment due to changes in the U.S. Federal Reserve's stance [2]

每经AI快讯，8月12日消息，英国7月失业率为4.42%，前值4.50%。 ...

今年以来，美国政府与美联储之间围绕是否应该尽快降息的问题展开博弈，从唇枪舌剑到人事变动，已 从政策分歧升级为关于美国经济治理方向的较量，牵动着全球市场的神经。这场纷争未来走向值得密切 关注。 本届美国政府就职以来，频频向美联储施压，希望迅速推动大幅降息。有分析认为，三重现实压力让本 届美国政府对降息的需求尤为迫切。 首先是财政压力。美国财政部数据显示，联邦政府2024财年债务利息支出约1.1万亿美元。随着国债总 额的不断攀升，利息支出还将进一步增加。8月10日，美国国债总额突破37万亿美元，且增速未见丝毫 放缓。这种局面下，美国政府尤其看重降息对缓解财政负担发挥的作用。 有分析认为，特朗普政府正试图控制数据定义权以制造降息合理性，改组美联储理事会以改变投票格 局。短期看，美国政府推动的人事变动可能影响美联储内部的投票权结构，从而影响9月份降息表决， 为降息打开技术通道。但长期来看，无论是美联储还是美国政府，都无法承受数据公信力受损带来的伤 害。当前黄金价格飙升，已有预测短期内将突破4000美元/盎司，显露出市场对"定制化数据"的警惕。 对于美国政府的频频施压，美联储并不买账。美国有关法律规定总统无权因政策分歧 ...

每经AI快讯，8月11日消息，冰岛7月失业率维持在3.4%不变。 ...

摩根大通首席美国经济学家Michael Feroli最新预测，美联储将在2025年实施三次降息，首次降息将在9 月进行，幅度为25个基点。 这一观点变化发生在美国总统特朗普周四提名其经济顾问委员会主席史蒂芬.米兰填补美联储理事会空 缺席位之后。此前，Feroli仅预计美联储将在12月降息一次。如今，他认为，美联储将从9月开始连续三 次降息，分别在10月、12月以及2026年1月各降息25个基点。 回顾此前，美联储在2024年9月实施了50个基点的降息，随后在11月和12月各降息25个基点，但此后一 直暂停行动。美联储主席鲍威尔曾表示，央行需要时间评估特朗普关税政策对消费者价格的影响。 Feroli将预测调整直接与特朗普提名米兰挂钩。尽管米兰过去曾主张维持高利率，Feroli认为，这位哈佛 大学经济学博士已不再持此立场，且近期米兰公开表示，特朗普重返白宫后实施的新关税并不会显著推 升通胀。 虽然在美联储9月会议前快速完成米兰的参议院确认程序存在难度，Feroli认为并非不可能。而且，虽然 部分新任美联储理事会成员在首次会议上遵循不投票的传统，但Feroli怀疑米兰会采取这种做法。 目前，美联储内部已有分歧迹象。 ...

Core Insights - The unemployment rate in France for the second quarter of 2025 is reported at 7.5%, unchanged from the revised first quarter rate [1] - The number of unemployed individuals increased by 29,000 from the first quarter, reaching a total of 2.4 million [1] - The current unemployment rate is slightly above the lowest point of 7.1% since 1982, but has decreased by 3 percentage points from the peak of 10.5% in the second quarter of 2015 [1] Age Group Analysis - The unemployment rate for young people aged 15 to 24 remains high at 19%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [1] - For the age group of 25 to 49 years, the unemployment rate stands at 6.9%, up by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The unemployment rate for individuals aged 50 and above is at 4.8%, showing a decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [1] Employment Rate Insights - The employment rate in France has risen to 69.6%, marking the highest level since records began in 1975, with an increase of 0.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] - Employment rates for the 15 to 24 and 25 to 49 age groups remained stable quarter-on-quarter, while the employment rate for older populations continues to rise [1] - Employment rates for individuals aged 50 to 64 and 55 to 64 have reached new highs since 1975 [1]

行情回顾： 国际黄金周四（8月7日）震荡收涨，开盘价3377.41美元/盎司，最高价3397.28美元/盎司，最低价3365.25美元/ 盎司，收盘价3390.07美元/盎司。 消息面： 地缘局势： 俄总统助理：俄美正在筹备两国元首会晤，目标是下周举行会晤。 普京：阿联酋是与特朗普会面的合适地点之一，不介意会见泽连斯基。 美国6月批发销售月率录得0.3%，高于市场预期0.1%，前值位-0.3%；美国至8月2日当周初请失业金人数录得 22.6万人，高于市场预期22.1万人，前值位21.8万人。 评论称，美国上周初请失业金人数小幅上升，暗示就业市场基本稳定，尽管就业岗位创造正在减弱，且失业人 员寻找新工作所需时间延长。最新的初请失业金人数数据显示，随着经济失去动力，雇主们尚未转向大规模裁 员，而是在通过自然减员来应对。这有助于在就业增长放缓的情况下将失业率保持在相对较低的水平。7月份 失业率为4.2%。在白宫打击移民的背景下，劳动力供应的下降也有助于避免失业率的上升。 纽约联储最新月度调查显示，消费者对美联储长期通胀管理的信心下降。数据显示，消费者对未来五年通胀率 的预期为2.9%，高于6月份调查的2.6%。短期 ...