Economic Indicators - August CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, while PPI fell by 2.9% year-on-year[15] - August manufacturing PMI stood at 49.4, indicating a slight contraction in the manufacturing sector[14] - Exports in August grew by 4.4% year-on-year, down from 7.2% in the previous month[15] Market Trends - Social financing growth rate has declined for the first time since October last year, indicating weak overall demand[1] - The 10-year government bond yield briefly exceeded 1.8%, suggesting a potential buying opportunity[1] - The bond market is expected to benefit from continued monetary easing as the economic fundamentals remain under pressure[1] Policy Developments - The government is expected to implement new policies to support the bond market, including early issuance of local government debt limits for 2026[21] - The State Council has approved the establishment of a national-level nature reserve, reflecting ongoing environmental policy initiatives[9] External Environment - The U.S. and Europe are discussing new sanctions against Russia, which may introduce uncertainties in external demand[1] - Global central banks' gold reserves have surpassed U.S. Treasury holdings, indicating a shift in reserve asset preferences[18]

编者按：《机警理财日报》作为南财集团、21世纪经济报道、南财理财通的金牌理财专栏，目前细分了现金、纯固收、固收+期权、固收+权益、混合、权 益、衍生品七大类，已实现对银行理财市场的每日追踪。为了进一步反映银行理财行业发展现状，南财理财通课题组增设机警理财周报专题，力求及时准确 研判理财行业趋势、洞悉理财产品表现，以期为银行理财行业转型发展带来参考价值。 【市场回顾】 上周债市震荡偏弱，资金面均衡偏紧。9月12日DR007加权均价为1.4575%，10年期国债收益率收至1.87%。A股震荡上行，科创50指数周涨幅达5.48%，上证 指数、沪深300指数周涨幅分别为1.52%、1.38%，电子、房地产、农林牧渔板块周涨幅居前。 【破净情况】 【新发情况】 产品数量：南财理财通数据显示，32家理财公司上周（9月8日—9月12日）合计发行了481只理财产品（同一产品登记编码下不同份额合并计算），股份行理 财公司产品发行量居前，信银理财发行了37只产品，浦银理财和光大理财分别发行了35只、34只。 产品特点：理财公司上周新发产品仍以R2（中低风险）、封闭式净值型、固收类公募型产品为主，混合类产品发行数量为1只，权益类产 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Since the third quarter, the A-share market has continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 12.08%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 24.28%, and the ChiNext Index by 42.41% as of September 15 [1] - In contrast, the bond market has experienced a significant adjustment, with the ten-year government bond yield rising from 1.6553% on June 30 to 1.8615% by September 15, an increase of over 20 basis points [1] Group 2: Fund Performance - Recent performance of pure bond funds has been disappointing, with nearly 70% of the 4,329 funds analyzed showing negative returns over the past month, and over 20% of funds reporting losses year-to-date [2] - The average returns for both medium- and short-term pure bond funds have also been negative during this period [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Some analysts, such as Yin Hua Fund, suggest that if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, it could narrow the interest rate differential between China and the U.S., alleviating depreciation pressure on the RMB and creating favorable conditions for the People's Bank of China to implement looser monetary policies [3] - The market may see a technical rebound in bond prices due to reduced selling pressure and the upcoming "Double Festival," which typically leads to increased liquidity from the People's Bank of China [3][4] - However, other analysts, like Changcheng Fund, caution that the bond market remains in a weak phase driven by fragile sentiment, making it difficult to predict the trajectory of future market movements [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Huaxia Securities view is to wait for the bond market to return to fundamental pricing, focus on trading long - term bonds, and the anti - decline of credit bonds may continue under loose funds. The current bond market is weak, with long - term interest rates reversing multiple times during the day. Policy factors, the stock - bond seesaw, and bond fund redemption fee reforms have impacted the bond market. The bullet strategy is theoretically better, and 10Y and 30Y bonds are suitable for intraday trading. There are opportunities in the spread compression of some high - coupon local bonds. Credit bonds are more anti - decline under loose funds [2]. - The seller's view is that the bond market sentiment remains low, and most expect a sideways movement. Currently, 22% of institutions are bullish, 56% are neutral, and 22% are bearish [2]. - The buyer's view is that over 60% of buyers are neutral. Overall, the sentiment of fixed - income buyers is bullish, and the sentiment index has risen. Currently, 20% of institutions are bullish, 68% are neutral, and 12% are bearish [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Seller and Buyer Market 3.1.1 Seller Market情绪指数与利率债 - The weighted sentiment index this week is - 0.02, and the unweighted index is 0, both lower than last week. The overall view of institutions is neutral - bearish, with 6 bullish, 15 neutral, and 6 bearish institutions [10]. 3.1.2 Buyer Market情绪指数与利率债 - The weighted sentiment index this week is 0.05, and the unweighted index is 0.08, both higher than last week. The overall view of institutions is neutral - bullish, with 5 bullish, 17 neutral, and 3 bearish institutions [11]. 3.1.3 Credit Bonds - Market hot topics include the stock - bond seesaw and public fund fee reforms. The stock - bond seesaw leads to intensified capital diversion from the bond market, increased pressure on bond fund redemptions, and the public fund fee reform triggers a structural adjustment on the liability side, causing a full - scale increase in credit bond yields [16][17]. 3.1.4 Convertible Bonds - This week, institutions generally hold a neutral - bullish view. 40% of institutions are bullish, and 60% are neutral [20]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Tracking 3.2.1 Futures Trading - Futures prices generally declined. As of September 12, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL contracts were 102.38 yuan, 105.60 yuan, 107.71 yuan, and 115.27 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.01 yuan, + 0.01 yuan, - 0.24 yuan, and - 1.08 yuan compared to last Friday. The trading volume and open interest of each contract increased [24]. 3.2.2 Spot Bond Trading - The turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds decreased to 4.00% on September 12, down 0.52 pct from last week. The turnover rate of interest - rate bonds and 10Y China Development Bank bonds increased [33][36]. 3.2.3 Basis Trading - The basis of TS and TF contracts widened, while that of T and TL contracts narrowed. The net basis of most contracts widened, and the IRR of main contracts showed mixed trends [40][43]. 3.2.4 Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads - Except for the narrowing of the inter - period spread of the TL contract, the inter - period spreads of other contracts widened. Except for the narrowing of the 2*TS - TF spread, the inter - variety spreads of other contracts widened [51].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of "oscillating with a bearish bias, and paying attention to the stock-bond seesaw" [4] Core Viewpoints - In the third quarter, the bond market issuance has accelerated, increasing supply. The liquidity in the interbank market faces pressure from bond supply, and the tight balance of liquidity due to the demand from the real economy and the warming stock market has increased negative factors for the bond market [2][27] - China's economic prosperity continues to expand overall. The acceleration of the economic recovery rhythm in September is a long - term negative factor for the bond market. However, during the Fed's interest - rate meeting this week, the stock - bond seesaw logic may have a significant impact on the bond market [2][27] - The loose liquidity is the main tone of the second half of the year. The central bank is expected to provide timely liquidity support according to the bond issuance rhythm of the Ministry of Finance [3] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - In the third quarter, the fiscal bond - issuing rhythm has accelerated. The supply - demand logic and the stock - bond seesaw logic have increased the difficulty of bond market operations [9] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - China's economic prosperity continues to expand. In August, the official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and comprehensive PMI were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5% respectively, with month - on - month increases of 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points [13] - At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 2.8%, the lowest since June 2021 [13] - Affected by the high base and food prices, in August, China's CPI was flat month - on - month and decreased by 0.4% year - on - year. The core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the fourth consecutive month. The PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month [13][14] - In August, China's exports denominated in US dollars decreased by 4.4% year - on - year, lower than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 5%, and imports decreased by 1.3% year - on - year, lower than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 3% [14][15] - The market's expectation of restarting the central bank's treasury bond trading operations has been gradually rising [14] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - China's economic prosperity continues to expand. The overall economic data in August shows that the endogenous economic momentum is strengthening, and the downward pressure on the economy has weakened. Continuous strengthening of counter - cyclical adjustment will be a long - term negative factor for the bond market [15] 3.2 Policy Aspect - At the end of August, the narrowing of the M1 - M2 gap indicates that economic activities have increased. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock has slightly increased, and the monthly new social financing has increased compared with last year, mainly driven by government bond issuance [18] 3.3 Capital Aspect - After July 25, DR007 continued to decline, reducing the cost of funds. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, and the Fed's interest rate cut may provide more room for domestic monetary policy easing [18] 3.4 Supply - Demand Aspect - The issuance of special treasury bonds and special bonds has accelerated. The market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [22] 3.5 Sentiment Aspect - The stock - bond ratio has broken through the short - term shock range, indicating that the market's attention to the stock market is greater than that to the bond market, and the market risk preference has increased. Short - term bonds are more affected by the capital aspect, while long - term bonds are more affected by the stock - bond seesaw [24] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - In the third quarter, the increase in bond market supply and the tight balance of liquidity have increased negative factors for the bond market. However, during the Fed's interest - rate meeting this week, the stock - bond seesaw logic may have a significant impact on the bond market [27]

Group 1 - The current market status indicates increasing pressure in the bond market, primarily due to redemption pressures from fixed income products rather than the stock-bond relationship [7][12][15] - The risk in the bond market may have exceeded the influences of fundamentals, liquidity, and the stock-bond relationship, with the stock market showing signs of structural volatility without alleviating bond market pressure [22][26][30] - Institutional buying power for bonds is weak, and trading desks are in a phase of reducing positions under pressure, indicating a lack of enthusiasm for bond purchases compared to previous years [15][19][20] Group 2 - Observing signals for market sentiment turning points is crucial, including monitoring deposit certificate rates, which can indicate liquidity conditions and the attractiveness of bond assets [32][33] - The bond market is still returning to reasonable valuation levels, with current adjustments potentially setting the stage for a bullish trend by the end of 2024 [37][41][44] - The bond market may be in a phase of accelerated risk release, with limited opportunities for bullish positions until clearer signals of easing emerge [37][39][45]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is suppressed by the recent increase in risk appetite. Meanwhile, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the rising global trade uncertainty add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3]. - With the repurchase rate rising, the prices of Treasury bond futures fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the decline of the basis of the 2512 contract. In the medium - term, there is adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's monthly CPI has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's monthly PPI has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.90% year - on - year change [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale is 431.26 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 1.04 trillion yuan (+0.24%); M2 year - on - year growth is 8.80%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% (+6.02%); the manufacturing PMI is 49.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% (+0.20%) [9]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 97.54, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.28 (-0.29%); the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 7.1180, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.002 (-0.03%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.47, with a day - on - day increase of 0.02 (+1.17%); DR007 is 1.48, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 (+0.34%); R007 is 1.51, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.05 (-3.26%); the yield of 3 - month inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 (+0.32%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-11.11%) [9]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Relevant figures include the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of Treasury bond futures, the price changes of each Treasury bond futures variety, the precipitation of funds in each Treasury bond futures variety, the proportion of open interest in each Treasury bond futures variety, the net open interest ratio (top 20) of each Treasury bond futures variety, the long - short open interest ratio (top 20) of each Treasury bond futures variety, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds, and the issuance of Treasury bonds [11][12][20]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - Relevant figures include the Shibor interest rate trend, the yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) at maturity, the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance of local government bonds [23][26]. 4. Spread Overview - Relevant figures include the inter - delivery spread trend of each Treasury bond futures variety, and the term spread of cash bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures (4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 3*T - TL, 2*TS - 3*TF + T) [32][33][34]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the term spread of cash bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures (2*TS - 3*TF + T), the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [36][41][48]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [50][54]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [57][58]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [64][70].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in government bond futures has led to increased expectations for the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to resume government bond trading operations, particularly in the fourth quarter, to release medium- to long-term funds and improve market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds have fallen below 1.8% and 2.1%, respectively, indicating a significant rise in yields since the beginning of the year [1]. - The bond market sentiment is currently bearish, with the 10-year government bond yield recently rising to around 1.8% [2]. - The PBOC has suspended government bond trading operations for eight consecutive months, leading to a notable shift in the bond market compared to earlier in the year [2]. Group 2: PBOC Operations - The PBOC's resumption of government bond trading is seen as having suitable conditions, although the urgency is not strong at the moment [1][6]. - The PBOC has previously indicated that it would consider resuming operations based on market supply and demand conditions [1]. - The PBOC's operations are primarily aimed at managing liquidity and influencing government bond yield trends [2][3]. Group 3: Analyst Perspectives - Analysts believe that the resumption of government bond trading could stabilize bond prices and mitigate negative feedback loops from large-scale redemptions of wealth management products [6]. - Some analysts argue that the PBOC's bond trading operations are more flexible and effective compared to other liquidity management tools like reverse repos [5]. - The current market dynamics suggest that the resumption of bond trading may not fundamentally alter the interest rate trends, as the core factors are related to the stock-bond valuation relationship [6].

以下文章来源于21世纪资管研究院 ，作者21世纪资管研究院 受此影响，最近一周债基收益较为低迷。wind数据显示，截至9月11日发稿，所收录的930只 短期纯债型基金中有751只近一周回报为负；3571只中长期纯债基金中有2926只近一周回报为 负。 CNEX债券分歧指数显示，在此轮债市"阵痛"行情中，基金机构持续抛券，成为市场卖方主 力。 21世纪资管研究院 . 21世纪资管研究院是南方财经全媒体集团旗下致力于资管领域政策和业务研究的独立智库，研究院宗 旨：探索全球资管发展新趋势，求解国内资管发展新问题，搭建资管人才成长大平台，促进资管行业健 康长远发展。 记者丨 吴霜 余纪昕 编辑丨方海平 公募基金费用新规的余波席卷至债市。 近两日，债券收益率大幅攀升。 10年期国债收益率自9月4日1.74%的低位于几个交易日内连 续快速上行，9月10日，债市跌势仍未止步，10年期国债收益率当日下午突破1.8%的关键点 位，一度触及1.83%的高点；30年期国债收益率也上行2.9个基点，来到2.10%附近。 9月11日截至发稿， 债市现已有企稳迹象，呈现长短端表现分化。 利率债品种中，长端还在继 续跌，比如30年期国债活 ...

对债市的判断仍要回到决定债券市场表现的根本性因素中，就是资金面、基本面、政策面以及估值。目 前看，债券市场机会大于风险，最大的潜在风险点可能来自于机构一致性降低仓位导致的恐慌和踩踏。 中证报中证网讯(记者张韵)9月11日晚间，大成基金基金经理万晓慧在中国证券报"中证点金汇"直播间 表示，维持年初对债市的震荡行情判断，债市仍然具备中期的配置价值。 在她看来，参考过去经验，在资金面、基本面不发生根本性变化的前提下，"股债跷跷板"只是阶段性影 响，并不会造成债市趋势性转熊。无论是回溯我国的历史资产价格表现，还是回溯世界其他主要国家的 历史资产价格表现，股和债两类资产的相关性是不稳定的，两者仅在特定时期表现出明显的负相关性。 ...