贵金属日报 | 2025-08-05 美联储戴利称降息时机已临近 交易主线转向宽松预期 策略摘要 海外宏观方面，旧金山联储主席戴利表示，鉴于越来越多的证据表明就业市场正在疲软，且并无证据表明关税通 胀的持续性，则现阶段转向宽松的时机已经接近。戴利称，年内两次25BP的降息看起来仍然是一个适当的重新调 整，且重要的是是否在9月和12月都降息，而非是否选择降息；考虑到美国非农数据的低迷，目前市场交易重心已 经重新回到年内的货币政策转宽上。关税方面，欧盟委员会发言人表示，欧盟将在6个月内暂停实施原定于8月7日 对美国生效的关税反制措施；欧盟将继续与美国合作，以敲定一项关于贸易的联合声明。马来西亚同意削减或取 消美国关税清单中98.4%商品的进口关税，并将在五年内采购价值1500亿美元的美国半导体、航空航天和数据中心 领域产品。瑞士联邦委员会表示，在美国宣布对瑞士进口商品征收39%的高关税后，瑞士决定继续进行谈判，必要 时将在8月7日新税率生效后继续谈判。瑞士准备提出更具吸引力的方案。整体看，特朗普政府的新一轮关税税率 公布后各经济体多选择在与美国的谈判中让步，市场对于美关税不确定性风险的定价权重或将降低；短期贵金属 ...

Economic Indicators - July manufacturing PMI slightly decreased to 49.3, indicating continued contraction for four months[4] - Raw material purchase prices increased by 3.1 percentage points to 51.5, driven by significant price rises in upstream materials like rebar and coke[4] - July service PMI was 50.0, showing a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points, with new orders and business activity expectations being the main drivers[5] Market Trends - The liquidity environment remains a key variable for the equity market, with expectations of continued monetary policy easing supporting market growth[2] - The recent adjustment in the equity market was driven by trading behavior, particularly in "anti-involution" related sectors, leading to significant price drops in futures like coking coal and rebar[7] - The central bank's recent statements suggest a continuation of liquidity support without immediate rate cuts, indicating a stable monetary policy outlook[9] U.S. Economic Outlook - U.S. Q2 GDP growth was reported at 3.0%, a significant increase of 3.5 percentage points from Q1, exceeding market expectations[15] - July non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs, a sharp decline of 74,000 from the previous month, indicating growing risks in the labor market[20] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points, while the labor force participation rate fell to 62.2%[23] Inflation and Interest Rates - The market anticipates approximately three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, with expected cuts in September, October, and December, totaling around 61 basis points[24] - Recent adjustments in tax policy for newly issued bonds may widen the spread between new and old bonds, impacting the attractiveness of government bonds relative to credit bonds[12]

一、美元利率趋于宽松，贵金属板块整体受益 截至2025年8月，美联储已完成本年度首轮降息，联邦基金利率降至4.75%。随着通胀回落至目标区间附近，市场普遍预计下半年仍有一次降息的空间。货 币政策边际宽松意味着： | 以联系电话 | ◎联系地址 | 开盘 实时会价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 专注于金银铲铂铭钵钉回收精炼! | | | | 商品 | 回收 | 销售 | ■ | | | 2025-08-05 10:36 平泽回收行情 | | | | 黄金 | 779.09 | 781.13 | 780 | | | | | 776 | | 白银 | 8.49 | 8.66 | 8.1 8. | | 铂金 | 300.60 | 304.60 | 304 | | | | | 300 | | 把金 | 269.50 | 277.50 | 274 269 | | | | | . | | 粗佬 | 1300.00 | -- | - | | 粗錶 | 660.00 | i | 660 | | | | | 660 | | 粗钉 | | | 130 | | | 130.00 | -- | 1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current copper market shows inventory accumulation both at home and abroad, and it is the off - season for domestic demand. The short - term spot market has weak support for copper prices, and copper prices are mainly macro - driven. The weak US dollar and the loose monetary policies of China and the US are conducive to risk assets, so the short - term downside space for copper is limited, and attention should be paid to the support level of 77,000 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai copper market showed a slight increase of 0.08%, with the main contract closing at 78,330 and the spot price rising by 90 to 78,420. The spot premium of Shanghai copper was stable, rising by 5 to 180. The premium of US - dollar copper declined, and the market supply and demand were weak. The LME0 - 3 contango structure remained around 50, and the expectation of inventory accumulation for LME copper was strong [10]. - The domestic and foreign markets are both experiencing inventory accumulation, and it is the off - season for domestic demand. The short - term spot market has weak support for copper prices. Copper prices are mainly influenced by the macro - environment. The weak US dollar and the loose monetary policies of China and the US are favorable for risk assets, and the short - term downside space for copper is limited. Attention should be paid to the support level of 77,000 [10]. 3.2. Industry News - Mitsubishi Materials Corporation is considering reducing the copper concentrate processing volume of its Onahama Smelting Co., Ltd. It plans to reduce the copper concentrate processing volume by shutting down some facilities after the scheduled equipment maintenance from October to November this year, while maintaining the processing volume of electronic waste to improve the utilization ratio of recycled materials and profitability [11]. - Non - formal miners in Peru have suspended negotiations with the government and may resume protests due to differences in the negotiations. Miners who cannot meet the deadline will be excluded from the government's work regularization plan [11]. - Vedant's performance report for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 shows that the company's quarterly profit did not meet expectations. Although local demand was strong, it could not offset the negative impacts of falling aluminum and copper prices and increased tax expenditures. The company's total revenue increased by 6.2% year - on - year to 374.34 billion rupees (about 4.3 billion US dollars), but the net profit decreased by 11.7% year - on - year to 31.85 billion rupees [12].

彭博社调查显示，经济学家普遍预计，截至2026年初，央行还将再降息三次。部分分析师指出，近期就 业市场疲软是值得担忧的因素之一——本月早些时候的数据显示，澳大利亚6月失业率从5月的4.1%升 至4.3%，创四年新高。 就业数据公布后，央行行长米歇尔·布洛克上周表示，当前失业率与央行5月的预测相符，并补充称，货 币政策委员会认为"渐进、审慎"的宽松节奏是合适的。 市场将密切关注澳大利亚央行对此次通胀报告的解读——副行长安德鲁·豪泽将于周四在悉尼的一场"炉 边谈话"活动中发表讲话。 智通财经APP获悉，澳大利亚6月当季核心通胀率有所回落。随着物价压力缓解的迹象日益明显，这为 澳大利亚央行最早于8月启动货币政策宽松提供了更充分的理由。澳大利亚统计局周三发布的数据显 示，备受关注的"截尾均值"消费者价格指数(剔除波动性较大的项目)在二季度环比上涨0.6%，低于预期 的0.7%;同比上涨2.7%，符合预期，较一季度的2.9%有所下降。 由于政府补贴压低了整体通胀数据，模糊了对经济整体物价压力的判断，因此澳大利亚央行更关注核心 通胀指标。核心通胀率在一季度才刚刚回落至央行2%-3%的目标区间，如今进一步下行，意味着政策制 ...

金十数据7月30日讯，最新数据显示，澳大利亚第二季度核心通胀率进一步降温，为澳洲联储最早于8月 启动货币政策宽松提供了更强依据。澳大利亚统计局周三公布的数据显示，备受关注的剔除极端波动项 后的核心通胀率在第二季度环比上涨0.6%，低于预期的0.7%。同比来看，该指标从第一季度的2.9%回 落至2.7%，符合市场预期。由于政府补贴等因素压低了整体通胀数据，使其难以真实反映经济中的价 格压力，澳洲联储更关注核心通胀指标。此次核心通胀率进一步回落至2.7%，且仅在第一季度就进入 了澳洲联储设定的2%-3%目标区间，表明决策层现在可以将政策重心从抑制通胀逐步转向支持经济增 长。 澳大利亚核心通胀降温，为澳洲联储降息提供有力支持 ...

Group 1 - Turkey's central bank unexpectedly cut the benchmark interest rate by 300 basis points to 43%, marking the first rate cut since the monetary easing cycle was interrupted in March due to financial and political turmoil [2][3] - The annual inflation rate in Turkey decreased to 35% in June, significantly lower than the peak of approximately 75% in May of the previous year, indicating initial success of tightening policies [3][4] - Moody's upgraded Turkey's sovereign credit rating from "B1" to "Ba3" with a stable outlook, citing improved policy continuity, credibility, and alleviation of external imbalances as key reasons for the upgrade [3] Group 2 - Despite the decline in inflation, analysts suggest that this is largely due to base effects rather than structural improvements, with expectations that inflation will remain high at the end of the year [4] - The market remains cautious regarding the consistency of policies and actual improvements in economic fundamentals, with the central bank emphasizing that future rate cuts will be carefully evaluated based on inflation outlook [5] - A recent survey of 34 economists predicts that the central bank's policy rate will further decrease to 41% by the end of September and to 36% by the end of the year, while the annual inflation rate is expected to be around 30% by year-end, exceeding the central bank's target [5]

Group 1 - The US stock market has recently reached historical highs, but several analysts warn that the risk of a bubble is significantly increasing [1][3] - The current market environment shows extreme investor optimism, with risk appetite at a multi-month high, which may indicate an impending correction due to the high level of consensus among investors [1][3] Group 2 - Global central banks' shift towards loose monetary policy has created a conducive environment for stock market bubbles, with US, UK, and European central banks significantly lowering borrowing costs, reducing global policy rates from 4.8% last year to 4.4% [3] - It is expected that this rate will further decline to 3.9% within the next 12 months, providing ample liquidity support for asset price increases [3] - US policymakers are considering regulatory reforms to increase retail investor participation, which may further amplify market volatility, as a larger retail investor base often leads to increased liquidity and volatility, key drivers of bubble formation [3] Group 3 - A recent fund manager survey indicates that investor risk appetite has grown at the fastest pace since 2001 over the past three months, with the largest increase in US stock allocation since December of the previous year [4] - The allocation to technology stocks has seen the largest three-month increase since 2009, reflecting extreme optimism that historically appears near market tops [4] - Fund managers' cash levels have dropped to 3.9%, falling below the critical 4.0% threshold, which is viewed as a clear "sell signal" in trading rules [4] - The proportion of respondents believing that the economy will not enter a recession in the next year has completely reversed, with pessimistic expectations nearly vanishing, indicating a one-sided market consensus that could trigger rapid adjustments with any negative data [4]

Group 1 - President Trump expressed optimism about the Federal Reserve starting to lower interest rates following a meeting with Chairman Powell, indicating a positive atmosphere during their discussion [1] - Powell and other Fed officials remain cautious about the need for rate cuts, wanting to observe the impact of tariffs on inflation before making any decisions [1][2] - The White House budget director, Russell Vought, criticized the Fed's operations and called for a comprehensive review, emphasizing the need for monetary policy to support the economy, particularly the housing market [1][2] Group 2 - The meeting between Trump and Powell marked a thaw in the previously tense relationship between the White House and the Fed, with both sides expressing a positive tone [1] - Despite Trump's previous criticisms of Powell, he has recently retracted those statements and no longer believes Powell should resign [2] - Market expectations for an imminent rate cut are low, with futures indicating that the earliest potential cut may not occur until September [2]

Group 1 - President Trump expressed confidence that the Federal Reserve is preparing to lower interest rates following a positive meeting with Chairman Powell [1][2] - Trump believes the Fed is ready to provide the monetary policy easing he has sought for months, indicating a strong economy can handle higher rates while waiting for data on the impact of tariffs [2][3] - White House Budget Director Russell Vought has been pressuring the Fed for a review and to lower rates, viewing it as a way to support the economy, particularly the real estate market [2][3] Group 2 - The tone of the meeting between Trump and Powell was more conciliatory compared to previous months, with both sides viewing the discussion positively [2][3] - Despite the positive meeting, the futures market does not expect the Fed to lower rates in the upcoming meeting, with potential action not anticipated until September [3]