编者荐语： 日经中文网"开设了"日经BP精选"栏目。日经BP是日本经济新闻社媒体集团的一员，成立于1969年。作 为日本领先的B2B媒体公司，聚焦经营管理、专业技术及生活时尚三大主要领域。敬请读者关注。 以下文章来源于日经BP ，作者日经BP 目 录 序 章 日本央行与 传统观 念的破坏者 1 第一章 首位经济学家央行行长的诞生22 1.意外的人事任命之谁是植田23 2.告别任期长行长40 日经BP . 日经BP成立于1969年4月, 隶属于日本经济新闻社集团。作为日本领先的B2B媒体公司，我们聚焦"经营 管理"、"专业技术"及"生活时尚"三大主要领域，满足客户多元化的需求。 日本央行的光与影：央行与失去的三十年 出版社 : 机械工 业 出版社 编辑推荐 "火箭筒""艺术大师""魔术"......公众有时会神话央行行长的言行。雷曼危机后，很多央行同时将政 策利率降零，失去了宽松空间。日本央行推出的则是"改变通缩预期"的政策，用无限宽松的豪言壮语刺 激经济。这种语言的力量打动市场的央行行长被当时的日本经济学家称为"货币萨满"。世上并不存在解 决日本经济停滞不前问题的"魔法棒"。正是对宏观政策的过度依赖，才造了" ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The discussions primarily focus on the macroeconomic environment, particularly the industrial goods sector and the real estate market in China, as well as the implications of U.S. monetary policy on global markets [1][4][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Industrial Goods Outlook**: The future direction of industrial goods is contingent on the relaxation of financial conditions versus weakening U.S. fiscal policies and uncertainties surrounding tariffs affecting manufacturing demand. There are concerns about recession risks, but recent trends suggest a stabilization in risk appetite, indicating potential for demand recovery [1][4][10]. 2. **Inflation and Employment Trends**: A decline in oil prices and marginal weakening in the U.S. job market have led to February's inflation data falling below expectations. The upcoming FOMC meeting is seen as a critical point for market sentiment. If the dot plot and Powell's statements lean hawkish, it could negatively impact risk appetite; conversely, a neutral or dovish stance could boost sentiment in industrial goods [1][5][11]. 3. **Credit and Investment Dynamics**: February's social financing data indicates strong fiscal expansion, but the private sector continues to reduce leverage. Investment and consumption willingness in the private sector remain unactivated, perpetuating a negative cycle of domestic deflation [2][6][11]. 4. **Real Estate Market Discrepancies**: The current fundamental disagreements in the real estate market revolve around the adequacy of low-priced demand to support the market. Bears argue that it lacks credit stimulation, while bulls believe that the transmission of volume to price requires time. Observations of first-tier second-hand housing prices are crucial, as stability in these prices could lead to structural recovery in new construction in the second half of the year [3][7][12]. 5. **Bond Market Sentiment**: The short-term outlook for the bond market remains bearish, with expectations of difficulty in price recovery. It is suggested to wait for clearer drivers, such as a decline in first-tier second-hand housing prices or a peak in real estate transactions, before making strategic moves. If first-tier housing prices stabilize, a shift in the bond market direction may occur [8][13]. Additional Important Insights - The discussions highlight the importance of monitoring the German parliament's voting on defense spending, which could influence European economic contributions [4]. - The emphasis on the need for more evidence regarding the stabilization of first-tier housing prices suggests a cautious approach to investment in the real estate sector [7][12]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the macroeconomic landscape, particularly in relation to industrial goods and real estate, while also considering the implications of U.S. monetary policy.

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the industry, suggesting a focus on potential investment opportunities following the "Two Sessions" policy signals [3]. Core Insights - The manufacturing sector has returned to an expansion phase, with a PMI of 50.2 in February 2025, indicating improved production and new orders [8]. - The construction industry has shown significant improvement, with a PMI of 52.7 in February 2025, driven by post-holiday resumption of work and supportive fiscal policies [13]. - There has been a notable increase in corporate credit demand, with new RMB loans reaching 4.78 trillion yuan in January 2025, reflecting a recovery in the real economy [16]. - The government work report highlights a commitment to maintaining a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, alongside a historic high fiscal deficit rate of 4% [27][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Manufacturing Sector Recovery - The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 in February 2025, with production and new orders indices at 52.5 and 51.1 respectively, indicating a return to expansion [8]. - Export orders have improved, with a new export orders index at 48.6, suggesting better-than-expected export performance despite tariff impacts [8]. 2. Significant Growth in Corporate Credit - In January 2025, the new social financing scale reached 7.06 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans contributing significantly to this growth [16]. - The increase in corporate credit demand is attributed to enhanced confidence in the economy and supportive government policies [23]. 3. Government Work Report Highlights - The report sets a GDP growth target of 5% for 2025, maintaining consistency with previous years [27]. - The fiscal deficit rate is set to rise to 4% in 2025, reflecting a strong commitment to fiscal expansion [28]. - The government plans to increase the special bond quota to 4.4 trillion yuan in 2025, with a focus on infrastructure and debt resolution [29].

导读 从2 0 0 8年利用加杠杆效应刺激需求以抵御金融危机的外部冲击，到2 0 1 6年至2 0 1 8年 间再次加杠杆以应对供给端调整的压力，这些举措所取得的成功让投资者记忆犹新，虽有 其必要性，但也带来了巨量的地方政府债务、产能和房地产等后遗症，并对当前居民部门 和 企 业 部 门 造 成 了 影 响 ， 需 要 意 识 到 一 代 居 民 部 门 的 资 产 负 债 表 承 受 能 力 并 非 无 限 ， 因 此，对于未来的货币与财政政策究竟是继续杠杆效应模式，还是直接补偿模式，需要重新 审视其重心在哪侧。 为可能会导致长期发展与转型失败。 正如前面讲到的进入到今年以来短期的风险与矛盾已日益凸显，此时我们应适时 调整重心：既要长期"固本培元"，也要短期"对冲风险"，不应将政策短期的对冲视 为放弃长期固本培元思路的妥协； 短期迫切需要遏制螺旋式通缩压力 自从房地产开始不断萎缩以来，消费者和投资者一直信心低迷。投资者的情绪发生了变化。 当前我们面临的一项紧迫任务是遏制中产 阶级陷入螺旋式下滑的风险，短期需要有政策来对冲和阻断中产阶级的资产负债表的螺旋式循环，做肯定比不做强，当前做任何刺激措施 都会有所帮助 ...

今天小伙伴给我转发了一个研报pdf，日本经济回顾及展望(1945~2024)，你们百度一下也能搜得到，是 申万宏源分析师写的。 一整个下来44页图文，我比较感兴趣的是1990-2013这个阶段，正好对应了日本资产负债表的大衰退时 期。 里面提到1989年起日本央行为了抑制经济过热，15个月内加息5次，把利率从2.5%提高到了6%，从而导 致股市和房市的泡沫双双被刺破。之后日本资产大幅下降，全社会都在跑步去杠杆，日本资产负债表大 衰退。 面对这个情况日本政府的反应有些迟钝，有可能它们一开始并不觉得这是个问题，反而觉得适当的降温 有助于经济回归理性。因为我看到日本在1997年还加征了一次消费税，哈哈，迷之自信，说明起码在 1997年日本政府还没觉得本国经济有什么大问题，这战略定力刚刚的。 大概从2000年左右日本政府开始发力提振经济，这个时候离泡沫崩溃已经过去10年了，政府给企业减 税，另外大幅增加政府负债，赤字一年高过一年，但这个时候日本经济已经具备很强的惯性，很难显著 挽回。 然后时间一晃就到了2013年，安倍晋三上台后施行更为激进的经济政策，货币超宽松，主动让日元贬 值，进一步给企业减税，优化劳动力市场和企 ...

顺带说一句，李嘉诚除了房地产，最喜欢做的就是公用事业的生意，发电+自来水。我港股就买了老李旗下的电能实业，是港股这么烂的情况下少数还有 盈利的港股。 今天两市成交7400亿，缩量非常明显，不过我打听到的说法是近期日内做t的量化交易大幅变少了，虽然监管没有明确的说日内t不准做，但机构们在这个 时候都倾向于业务收缩，不愿当出头鸟。没有了这些日内来回撸毛的交易，a股正常就是7000-8000亿的规模。 市场中位数-1.28%，如果看中位数的话今年-17%很惨了，那些炒小票的2024年被打到深水区，很难上岸。资金继续向主板的权重股集中，上证指数今天 跌0.48%，是几个大盘指数里表现最好的。 板块里一马当先的依然是近期连续上涨的电力，+2.7%，也是76个行业里唯一涨幅超过1%的板块。随着6月份的临近，外部资金的涌入呈现加速的状态。 中央在山东济南召开企业和专家座谈会，就深化电力体制改革、发展风险投资等提出i意见建议。这就是继续走该走的流程，但市场上已经在提前消化涨 价的利好。 昨晚有读者问长江电力为什么一直涨，其实长江电力不是孤例，整个水电板块最近都很好。国投电力、川投能源、华能水电、桂冠电力，也都是一天一个 新高 ...