Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a downturn despite the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" [1][5] - Second-hand housing prices continue to decline, with a 0.19% month-on-month drop and a 0.98% year-on-year drop in Chengdu, indicating a broader national trend [1] - New housing sales area has decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing market sluggishness [3] Market Dynamics - Despite the overall decline, some popular new projects in first and second-tier cities are selling out quickly, suggesting a structural adjustment in the market [5] - Local policies are being optimized to boost market confidence, such as changes in housing fund policies in Chengdu that lower down payment requirements and increase loan limits for affordable housing [5][8] - New regulations in cities like Beijing and Shanghai aim to attract more buyers by easing restrictions on single individuals and non-local residents [8] Future Outlook - Experts express skepticism about the vitality of this year's "Golden September and Silver October" due to a weak supply environment [8] - However, companies are encouraged to enhance marketing efforts to stimulate demand, with projections indicating that 23 new projects with 1,500 units are expected to launch in Chengdu in September [8] - The overall sentiment in the real estate market may improve as policies and pricing strategies take effect, potentially leading to a more favorable environment for both companies and buyers in 2025 [8]

Group 1 - The traditional peak season for the real estate market in Guangzhou, "Golden September and Silver October," has led to an increase in new property launches and a faster market pace, with a wider selection for buyers [1][3] - Popular new projects in areas like Tianhe and Panyu have seen significant visitor interest, with over 3,000 groups visiting the Zhujiang Tianhe Duohui Phase II project and more than 300 registrations of intent [1][3] - According to statistics from CRIC, the number of visitors to key projects in Guangzhou has exceeded 5,000 groups, with transaction volumes increasing by 40% month-on-month, indicating a peak in the market for the second half of the year [3][5] Group 2 - The overall real estate market in Guangzhou has been gradually recovering over the first eight months of the year, with a total of 45,000 new residential units signed, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13% [5] - The second-hand residential market also showed strong performance, with 77,000 units signed, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.1% [5] - The market is characterized by stable prices, high visitor levels, and active new property launches, with expectations for increased pre-sale volumes and enhanced developer confidence in the fourth quarter [5]

Core Points - The "2025 Good Housing Renewal Season" event was launched in Guangzhou, with 100 real estate projects participating to offer discounts for homebuyers during the traditional peak buying season of "Golden September and Silver October" [1][2] Group 1: Event Overview - The event is organized by the Guangzhou Real Estate Industry Association and aims to provide various purchasing incentives to homebuyers [1] - A total of 100 real estate projects are involved, with significant participation from various districts, including 18 from Baiyun District, 15 from Haizhu District, and 14 from Panyu District [2] Group 2: Discount Offers - Discounts include purchase coupons ranging from 30,000 to 100,000 yuan, with additional offers such as "move-in ready" homes and "old-for-new" exchange programs [2] - Specific projects, such as those by Zhu Shi Real Estate and Vanke, are offering substantial discounts and additional incentives like home appliance packages and reduced management fees [2] Group 3: Consumer Experience Initiatives - The event features differentiated offers catering to various buyer needs, including fully furnished homes, free trial stays, and exclusive discounts for residents affected by urban renewal [2][3] - A unique initiative allows customers to experience a three-day, two-night free stay at selected properties to assess the living environment and service quality [3] Group 4: Industry Commitment - Major real estate companies, including Poly Development and Vanke, signed a commitment to ensure transparent pricing and eliminate hidden discounts in the home buying process [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the passenger car market in China, indicating a stable retail trend in September 2025 compared to previous years, with a slight year-on-year growth [1][5] - From September 1 to 21, 2025, the national retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.191 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1% and an 8% increase compared to the previous month [1][5] - The cumulative retail sales for the year reached 15.955 million units, reflecting a 9% year-on-year growth [1][5] Group 2 - The retail sales of new energy vehicles from September 1 to 21, 2025, amounted to 697,000 units, marking a 10% year-on-year increase and an 11% increase from the previous month [1][5] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market reached 58.5%, with cumulative retail sales for the year at 8.267 million units, a 24% year-on-year increase [1][5] - The article notes that the market is entering the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October," with various local subsidies encouraging consumer purchases [5] Group 3 - The wholesale performance of passenger cars from September 1 to 21, 2025, showed 1.307 million units sold, a 0% year-on-year change and a 16% increase from the previous month [9] - Cumulative wholesale sales for the year reached 19.349 million units, reflecting a 12% year-on-year growth [9] - The article discusses the cautious approach of manufacturers in increasing domestic sales while maintaining price stability and reducing dealer inventory pressure [9]

Group 1: Market Overview - From September 1 to 21, 2025, the national passenger car retail market reached 1.191 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1% and an 8% increase compared to the previous month. Cumulative retail for the year is 15.955 million units, up 9% year-on-year [2][5] - During the same period, wholesale of passenger cars reached 1.307 million units, showing no year-on-year growth but a 16% increase from the previous month. Year-to-date wholesale totals 19.349 million units, up 12% year-on-year [2][9] Group 2: New Energy Vehicles - Retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles from September 1 to 21 reached 697,000 units, a 10% year-on-year increase and an 11% increase from the previous month. The penetration rate for new energy vehicles is 58.5%, with cumulative retail for the year at 8.267 million units, up 24% year-on-year [2][5] - Wholesale of new energy vehicles during the same period was 724,000 units, also a 10% year-on-year increase and a 19% increase from the previous month. Year-to-date wholesale totals 9.668 million units, up 31% year-on-year [2][5] Group 3: Market Trends and Challenges - The market is experiencing a stable start in September 2025, with performance similar to 2023 but weaker than September 2024. The "trade-in" policy initiated in late July 2024 has positively impacted sales, but some regions are cautious about the sustainability of subsidies [5][6] - The introduction of new models at the Chengdu Auto Show has generated significant interest, but the overall contribution of new models is below expectations due to a lack of entry-level popular models [6] Group 4: Wholesale Trends - Daily average wholesale for passenger cars in the first three weeks of September showed a mixed performance, with a decline in the first week but growth in the subsequent weeks. The cumulative wholesale for the first 21 days is 1.307 million units, reflecting a 0% year-on-year change [9][10] - Major manufacturers are focusing on maintaining price stability and reducing dealer inventory pressure, indicating cautious optimism in domestic sales growth [9] Group 5: Commercial Vehicles - The domestic commercial vehicle market saw a 14% year-on-year increase in insurance data, with August sales reaching 246,000 units. Year-to-date sales for commercial vehicles are 2.01 million units, up 8% year-on-year [10][11] - The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles has significantly increased, reaching 25% in the first eight months of 2025, indicating strong growth in this segment [11] Group 6: Future Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" anticipates a total automotive sales volume of 40 million units, with an average annual growth rate of 3%. The growth is expected to be driven by increased domestic demand and exports [12][13] - The potential for growth in the automotive market is attributed to the expansion into lower-tier cities, the impact of electrification on vehicle ownership cycles, and the increasing share of Chinese brands in international markets [13] Group 7: International Market Analysis - The Russian automotive market saw a significant increase in sales in 2024, with a total of 1.83 million units sold, but a decline in 2025. Chinese brands have captured over 60% of the market share in Russia, indicating strong performance [14][15] - Chinese automakers are adopting various strategies to enhance their presence in the Russian market, including local production and supply chain restructuring to mitigate risks associated with tariffs and delivery times [16]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views - The view on finished products is that they will run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center of gravity moving downward and weak operation, and the market sentiment is pessimistic in the context of weak supply and demand, and this year's winter storage is sluggish with limited price support [1][3] - The view on aluminum ingots is that they are supported by the peak season, and attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point. The price is expected to be adjusted weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - flow construction steel enterprises are expected to stop production from mid - January and resume around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production [2] - Six short - flow steel mills in Anhui, one stopped on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - Later, it is necessary to pay attention to macro - policies and downstream demand [3] Aluminum - The fundamental situation of alumina remains in an oversupply pattern. The domestic alumina operating capacity is at a high level, the import window is open, and the inventory is high [3] - As of last Thursday, the total installed capacity of national metallurgical - grade alumina was 110.32 million tons/year, and the operating total capacity was 92.33 million tons/year, with the weekly starting rate up 0.92 percentage points to 83.69% [3] - Last week, the starting rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 62.2%, 1.3 percentage points lower than the same period last year [3] - On September 22, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots at domestic mainstream consumption areas was 638,000 tons, the same as last Thursday and 100 tons higher than last Monday. From September 16 - 21, the domestic aluminum ingot delivery volume was 122,300 tons, an increase of 14,700 tons from the previous period [3] - Later, it is necessary to pay attention to macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crisis development, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in coking coal futures indicate a divergence between spot prices and futures, with some coking enterprises starting to raise prices, while the overall market remains cautious due to recent price reductions by steel mills [6] Supply - As of September 18, the average daily coking coal production from independent coking plants was 667,000 tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.1 tons, while the average daily production from 247 steel mills was 466,000 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.1 tons, leading to a total production of 1,134,000 tons per day, unchanged from the previous week [3] Demand - As of September 18, the average daily pig iron production was 2.4102 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.47 tons; the blast furnace operating rate was 83.98%, up by 0.15%; the capacity utilization rate for blast furnace ironmaking was 90.35%, an increase of 0.18%; and the profit margin for steel mills was 58.87%, down by 1.30% [4] Inventory - As of September 18, the total inventory of coking coal was 9.719 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 124,000 tons. Among this, the inventory at independent coking enterprises was 664,000 tons, down by 14,000 tons week-on-week, while the inventory at 247 steel mills was 6.447 million tons, up by 114,000 tons week-on-week, and port inventory was 2.608 million tons, an increase of 25,000 tons week-on-week [5] Profitability - The average profit per ton of coking coal for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was -17 yuan; with Shanxi's first-grade coking coal averaging a profit of -12 yuan, Shandong's first-grade coking coal averaging a profit of 34 yuan, Inner Mongolia's second-grade coking coal averaging a loss of 70 yuan, and Hebei's first-grade coking coal averaging a profit of 13 yuan [2] Market Outlook - The market anticipates a gradual rebound in coking coal prices due to improved profitability in coking enterprises and the resumption of production and logistics. The steel industry is expected to maintain stable growth, with a focus on controlling total production and reducing pollution emissions. The upcoming peak season in September and October may provide further support for raw material prices [6]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年9月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘反弹，站回20均线以上，20均线上下震荡运行。产业链上，镍矿价格坚挺，海运费受 煤炭价格上升也稳中有升。镍铁价格继续小幅上涨，成本线进一步上移，但总体镍铁企业仍然亏损。不 锈钢库存继续回落，金九银十去库存良好。新能源汽车产销数据良好，三元电池装车仍然呈现下降，对 镍需求提升有限。中长线过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货121950，基差1040，偏多 3、库存：LME库存230454，+1554，上交所仓单25464，-72，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向上，中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2511：20均线上下震荡运行。 利空： 1、金九 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite weak terminal demand leading to continuous price declines, PTA prices are not expected to drop significantly due to low processing fees and stable supply-demand fundamentals [1]. Group 1: Processing Fees and Production Costs - Processing fees for PTA have been compressed to a historical low of 130 yuan/ton, while the comprehensive production cost has reached 4500 yuan/ton, resulting in a loss of approximately 330 yuan per ton [2]. - Domestic PTA production enterprises have not significantly reduced their operating rates despite the losses. After a brief decline in mid-August, the operating rate has rebounded to 77.37% as of September 22, an increase of 3.89 percentage points year-on-year and 8.2 percentage points from the end of August [2]. - PTA production for the week ending September 18 was 1.4309 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 42,900 tons and a year-on-year increase of 47,000 tons, indicating that supply has largely returned to normal levels [2]. Group 2: Inventory and Supply Stability - As of September 22, PTA social inventory was 3.3091 million tons, a decrease of 0.73% week-on-week and significantly lower than the same period last year. The available days of PTA enterprise inventory have dropped to 3.8 days, a reduction of 0.81 days year-on-year [2]. - The available days of PTA inventory for downstream polyester enterprises have also decreased to 6.85 days, down 2.7 days year-on-year, suggesting limited inventory pressure [2]. Group 3: Terminal Demand and Market Sentiment - Despite being in the traditional peak season for inventory replenishment, the textile industry is experiencing weak demand, with the operating rate of the terminal weaving industry at 67%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The lack of terminal orders has dampened market confidence, leading to a cautious approach in raw material procurement across the supply chain, which is a primary reason for the pressure on chemical fiber product prices [4]. - Polyester enterprises are maintaining high operating rates, with the polyester operating load at 87.43% as of September 22, an increase of 1.95 percentage points year-on-year, although inventory levels for polyester products are rising due to low purchasing willingness [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing difficulties faced by PTA production enterprises have not yet led to a contraction in supply, but if low processing fees persist, the industry may adopt production limitation strategies to maintain prices [3].

Group 1 - The coal ETF (515220) has stabilized and rebounded, with an intraday increase of nearly 1% [1] - The coal ETF has attracted over 400 million yuan in inflows recently, with a year-to-date share growth of nearly 300%, bringing its current scale to over 10.9 billion yuan [1] - According to Kaiyuan Securities, the current prices of thermal coal and coking coal are still at historical lows, providing room for a rebound [1] Group 2 - The supply-side "overproduction checks" policy is expected to lead to production cuts, while the demand-side anticipates a recovery in non-electric coal demand during the "golden September and silver October" peak season [1] - The fundamental supply-demand situation for coal is expected to continue improving, with both types of coal showing upward price elasticity [1] - Thermal coal benefits from long-term contract mechanisms and the logic of profit-sharing between coal and power companies, while coking coal, being more market-sensitive, may exhibit greater price elasticity [1]