Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the strong performance of the Kerry Jinling Huating project, which achieved a subscription rate of 190% and set a new record for new home registration prices in Shanghai at 32.68 million yuan per square meter [1][5][10] - Kerry Properties reported a contract sales amount of 16.186 billion HKD in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 130%, and a reduction in the debt ratio by 3.1 percentage points [1][8][9] - The company aims to reduce its debt ratio to the low 30% range by the end of 2026 through the sales proceeds from the Jinling Huating project and other projects in Hong Kong and mainland China [1][9][10] Group 2 - The high-end residential market in Shanghai is experiencing a surge, with 12 out of 35 upcoming projects having a registration average price exceeding 100,000 yuan per square meter [2][10] - The scarcity of land in core areas of Shanghai is driving demand for high-end properties, with significant sales recorded in various luxury projects [10][12] - The market is expected to maintain a positive outlook due to supportive policies and the concentration of high-end project supply, which is likely to lead to increased transaction volumes [12][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile upward trend, with the main contract 2510 rising by 0.65%. After the Fed's interest - rate cut announcement, the overall trend was volatile and upward [4]. - The market has digested the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. The expectation of continuous interest rate cuts has cooled, and risk appetite has declined. Some funds have taken profits, weakening the support for lead prices. The preliminary progress in China - US economic and trade negotiations has a positive impact on market sentiment [4]. - On the supply side, some primary lead smelting enterprises in regions like Henan and Inner Mongolia are in the centralized maintenance stage. The raw material market is in a tight - balance state, and the processing fee of lead concentrates continues to decline. The production of primary lead decreases this week. The production of recycled lead is restricted by environmental inspections, low waste battery recycling efficiency, and the off - season of battery scrapping [4]. - On the demand side, the demand for automotive starting batteries is relatively stable. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is warming up, and the demand in emerging energy - storage fields is promising. However, the overall demand has not increased significantly, and downstream enterprises are still mostly in a wait - and - see state [4]. - In terms of inventory, both domestic and foreign lead inventories, as well as the number of warehouse receipts, have decreased, indicating that demand has effectively driven inventory reduction. - Overall, the supply of Shanghai lead decreases slightly, and demand increases slowly. The lead price is expected to consolidate at a high level, and it is recommended to go long on dips. The main contract 2510 is expected to fluctuate upward in the range of 16,800 - 17,300, with a stop - loss range of 16,600 - 17,400 [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile upward trend this week, with the main contract 2510 rising by 0.65% [4]. - **Market Outlook**: The market has digested the Fed's interest - rate cut. The supply of primary and recycled lead decreases, while the demand in the lead - acid battery field is expected to increase. The overall demand has not increased significantly, and downstream enterprises are still waiting and seeing. The inventory has decreased, and it is recommended to go long on dips [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract 2510 is expected to fluctuate upward in the range of 16,800 - 17,300, with a stop - loss range of 16,600 - 17,400 [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: The domestic futures price of Shanghai lead rose slightly compared with last week, the foreign futures price remained flat, and the ratio increased. As of September 18, 2025, the LME 3 - month lead futures price was $1,938 per ton, the active - contract lead futures price was 17,145 yuan per ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.71 [6][10]. - **Premium and Discount**: Both domestic and foreign futures premiums and discounts weakened. As of September 11, 2025, the domestic futures premium and discount was - 120 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium and discount (0 - 3) was - $44.05 per ton [12][14]. - **Inventory**: Both domestic and foreign lead inventories and the number of warehouse receipts decreased. As of September 18, 2025, the total lead inventory was 5,960 tons, a decrease of 3,200 tons; the LME lead inventory was 222,675 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons; the number of Shanghai lead warehouse receipts was 49,375 tons, a decrease of 10,362 tons [28][33]. 3.3 Industry Situation Supply Side - **Primary Lead**: As of September 11, 2025, the average operating rate of primary lead in major production areas was 81.52%, a decrease of 3.67% from last week; the weekly output was 35,900 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons from last week [19]. - **Recycled Lead**: As of September 11, 2025, the domestic production of recycled lead in major production areas was 13,200 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous week; the average capacity utilization rate was 34.85%, a decrease of 0.5% from the previous week. It is expected to recover next week [23][26]. - **Trade**: In August 2025, the refined lead export volume was 1,795 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 43.62% and a year - on - year increase of 408.31%. The refined lead import volume was 3,417 tons. The lead alloy import volume was 12,784 tons. The lead concentrate import volume was about 122,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 28.3%. The total lead ingot import volume was 13,450 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,940 tons (106.70%) and a year - on - year decrease of 9,730 tons (41.98%) [37]. Demand Side - **Processing Fee**: As of September 11, 2025, the national average processing fee of lead concentrates was 370 yuan per ton, and the average monthly processing fee of imported lead concentrates (Pb60) was - $90 per thousand tons [41]. - **Automobile Sales**: In August 2025, the total automobile sales were 2.857 million, a month - on - month increase of 10.18% and a year - on - year increase of 16.4%. The sales of passenger cars, commercial vehicles, and new - energy vehicles all increased. The new - energy vehicle sales accounted for 48.8% of the total new - car sales in August and 45.5% from January to August [46]. - **Battery Price**: As of September 18, 2025, the average price of 48V/20AH waste lead - acid batteries in Zhejiang was 394 yuan per set, and the price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2 - 4% antimony) in Shanghai was 20,150 yuan per ton [49].

Core Viewpoint - The energy metals sector showed resilience amidst a broader market decline, with significant gains in cobalt and lithium prices driven by supply constraints and strong demand [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 19, the market experienced a downturn with all three major indices closing lower, while the energy metals sector rose, with the energy metals index increasing by 3.23% [1]. - Key stocks in the energy metals sector, including Ganfeng Lithium, Tengyuan Cobalt, Tianqi Lithium, and Hanrui Cobalt, saw substantial gains, with Ganfeng Lithium hitting the daily limit and others rising over 3% [1]. Group 2: Cobalt Market Insights - Recent reports indicate that cobalt prices are on a strong upward trend, influenced by a decline in production from smelting companies and a temporary ban on cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is expected to significantly reduce global cobalt supply [1]. - The anticipated tightening of cobalt supply is likely to disrupt the previously expected surplus situation by 2025, providing support for cobalt prices [1]. Group 3: Lithium Market Insights - The current period is characterized by a traditional demand peak, referred to as "golden September and silver October," leading to a robust purchasing demand from downstream material manufacturers [1]. - The demand growth for lithium is expected to outpace supply growth, providing a firm support for lithium prices during this peak demand season [1].

Group 1 - The new housing policy in Shenzhen has significantly lowered the purchasing threshold, activating various housing demands and expanding new home transaction hotspots from "single point explosion" to "multiple blooming" [1] - In the first week after the policy implementation, the top ten new home projects accounted for 55% of the total new home subscriptions, which dropped to 33% in the second week, indicating a broader distribution of transactions [1] - The average total price of new homes increased by 29% from 364 million yuan in the first week to 470 million yuan in the second week, driven by the entry of improvement demand into the market [1] Group 2 - The second-hand housing market in Shenzhen also experienced similar trends, with the Luo Hu district showing the most significant impact from the new policy, with viewing and signing volumes increasing by 29% and over 25% respectively [2] - The traditional "Golden September" marketing season is currently underway, with many developers actively preparing to seize the policy window, leading to an expected acceleration in project launches [2] - The new policy is expected to significantly activate the market in the short term, with non-core areas experiencing both price and volume increases, while core areas show moderate recovery [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price trend of the Shanghai Tin 2510 contract faces certain uncertainties due to bottlenecks on the supply - side, uncertainties on the demand - side, and inventory changes. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress in Myanmar [9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1.2 Variety Price - There are 12 Shanghai Tin futures contracts. The total trading volume of the variety is 79,845 lots, and the total open interest of Shanghai Tin contracts is 55,467 lots. The open interest of the Shanghai Tin contract 2510 is 23,007 lots [5][6] 2 Spot Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin 2510 contract today is 274,260 yuan/ton. The spot quotation of Shanghai Tin in the Yangtze River spot market on the same day is 274,260 yuan/ton, with a basis of 1,720 yuan/ton [7] 3 Influence Factors - Supply - side: Although Myanmar's Wa State has obtained mining licenses, the rainy season hinders resumption of production, and Thailand prohibits over - land transit transportation. It is difficult to significantly increase production before November. The power negotiation deadlock in Congo - Kinshasa and the decline in ore grade in Australia also restrict supply, making the current Shanghai Tin spot market relatively tight [8] - Demand - side: Despite the expected "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, the market is still cautious about domestic consumption performance, and the demand release rhythm may be postponed. The tight supply situation supports the spot price above the futures price [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - After the FOMC meeting, the bullish factors were exhausted, and the Shanghai copper futures price oscillated. The macro - environment showed that the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected. The previous loose trading for copper may have ended, and attention should be paid to whether the macro - market style switches to recovery trading. The fundamentals were in a state of "weak reality + stable expectation". In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction provided bottom support, and in the short - term, copper prices oscillated strongly under the loose background. The subsequent upward cycle needed the resonance of the commodity and financial attributes of copper. The reference range for the main contract was 79000 - 81000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina futures price oscillated at the bottom. The market was in a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". Supply - side factors such as the potential restart of a mining company in Guinea and a possible strike, as well as production cuts in Henan due to environmental protection, provided short - term support, but the overall supply was in excess. The demand was weak, and the inventory pressure increased. The short - term main contract was expected to oscillate between 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton. For aluminum, the macro - atmosphere was bullish, and the fundamentals improved moderately. The short - term price was expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton. If the demand improvement was less than expected, the price might fall back [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy futures price oscillated and declined with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the procurement cost of recycled aluminum enterprises was high, which supported the price. The demand showed a mild recovery, and the inventory was still accumulating. The short - term main contract was expected to run in the range of 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - In the context of improved interest - rate cut expectations, non - ferrous metals prices were generally strong, but Shanghai zinc was relatively weak due to the expectation of loose supply. The supply side saw overseas mines entering the production and resumption cycle, and the smelting profit was repaired. The demand entered the peak season, but the domestic and overseas performance was differentiated. The short - term price might be driven up by the macro - environment, but the upward space was limited. The reference range for the main contract was 21500 - 22500 [7]. Tin - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp in September as expected. The supply of tin ore remained tight, and the demand was weak. Although AI computing power and photovoltaic industry growth drove some tin consumption, it was difficult to make up for the decline in traditional demand. If the supply in Myanmar recovered smoothly, a short - selling strategy could be considered; otherwise, the price was expected to oscillate at a high level, with the running range of 265000 - 285000 [9]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel futures price was weak, and the spot price was stable. The Fed's interest - rate cut did not bring more than expected benefits, and the macro - environment was weak. The spot trading of refined nickel did not change significantly. The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia was relatively loose, and the price of nickel - iron was strong. The short - term price was expected to oscillate in the range of 120000 - 125000 [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel futures price oscillated narrowly and weakened in the afternoon. The spot price decreased slightly, and the market trading was average. The macro - environment overseas was weak after the Fed's interest - rate cut, while domestic policies were positive. The raw material prices were firm, and the supply of nickel - iron increased, but the demand for stainless steel had not significantly increased. The short - term price was expected to oscillate in the range of 12800 - 13400 [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated sharply. The Fed's interest - rate cut did not bring more than expected benefits, and the domestic policies had been digested by the market. The fundamentals were in a tight - balance state. The supply increased due to new projects and increased lithium - spodumene processing, and the demand was expected to increase in the peak season. The short - term price was expected to oscillate, with the main - contract price center of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [15]. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79990 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from the previous day. The electrolytic copper production in August was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The import copper concentrate index decreased by 0.45 dollars/ton week - on - week, and the domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 0.44 million tons week - on - week [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price was 20780 yuan/ton, down 0.53% from the previous day. The alumina production in August was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The aluminum profile开工率 increased by 0.6 percentage points week - on - week, and the Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 1.3 million tons week - on - week [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spreads**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20950 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day. The regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production in August was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The regenerated aluminum alloy开工率 decreased by 0.2 percentage points week - on - week, and the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory increased by 0.2 million tons week - on - week [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22010 yuan/ton, down 0.68% from the previous day. The refined zinc production in August was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The galvanizing开工率 increased by 1.99 percentage points week - on - week, and the Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 0.43 million tons week - on - week [7]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price was 270200 yuan/ton, down 0.66% from the previous day. The domestic tin ore import in July decreased by 13.71% month - on - month [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The SHEF inventory increased by 124 tons, and the social inventory increased by 108 tons [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 122700 yuan/ton, down 0.08% from the previous day. The Chinese refined nickel production increased by 400 tons month - on - month [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The SHFE inventory increased by 547 tons week - on - week, and the social inventory increased by 460 tons week - on - week [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spreads**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13100 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous day. The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 6.83 million tons month - on - month [13]. - **Fundamentals**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.60 million tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.451 million tons [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 73450 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous day. The lithium carbonate production in August was 85240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month [15]. - **Fundamentals**: The lithium carbonate total inventory in August decreased by 366 tons month - on - month, and the downstream inventory increased by 7552 tons month - on - month [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish rebound [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [4] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [4] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [4] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical risk of the Russia - Ukraine conflict has decreased, and oil prices have returned to fundamental pricing. The supply of crude oil is expected to be in excess in the medium - to - long term, and there is a high probability that it will be pressured to around $60. For other chemical products, their market trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and seasonal demand [1][6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices fell. WTI dropped 0.69%, Brent dropped 1.52%, and SC dropped 0.70% [5]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical risks have declined, and oil prices have returned to fundamental pricing. The U.S. crude oil inventory has decreased more than expected in the short term, providing some support, but there is a large probability of supply excess in the medium - to - long term, which may push the price down to around $60 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Russia's seaborne oil product exports increased in August. The U.S. crude oil net imports decreased, and exports increased. OPEC predicts stable growth in global oil demand. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased, while diesel inventory increased [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [480 - 495] for SC [8]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On September 18, the PG main contract closed at 4466 yuan/ton, down 0.42% [10]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end crude oil supply is in excess, and the demand from the chemical industry has weakened. The supply and inventory have increased, which is bearish [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [4400 - 4500] for PG [12]. L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 7188 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan [16]. - **Basic Logic**: The peak season is less than expected, and the spot price has continued to fall. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is gradually shifting to a situation of both strong supply and demand. The production is expected to increase next week, and the demand from the agricultural film industry is strengthening [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term weak oscillation. Industrial customers can hedge at high prices and wait for bullish drivers. Pay attention to the range of [7150 - 7250] for L [17]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 closed at 6926 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan [21]. - **Basic Logic**: High - level maintenance cannot offset high - level expansion. The peak season is less than expected, and the spot price is weak. The cost of propylene is high, suppressing processing profits. The downstream demand is gradually entering the peak season [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The futures price is at a premium. Industrial customers can hedge at high prices. Pay attention to the range of [6850 - 7000] for PP [22]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 closed at 4923 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [26]. - **Basic Logic**: The basis has strengthened, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased from a high level. The cost support from thermal coal has improved. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating. The export is expected to weaken [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips due to low valuation. Pay attention to the range of [4900 - 5050] for V [27]. PX - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the PX spot price was 6864 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [30]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side devices have little change at home and abroad. The demand - side PTA processing fee is low, and the device maintenance has led to a short - term increase in load. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the inventory is still relatively high. The macro - environment has put pressure on prices [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of [6620 - 6720] for PX511 [32]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the PTA spot price in East China was 4565 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan. The TA01 closed at 4648 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [34]. - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is low. The supply pressure has increased due to new device production and the resumption of previous maintenance devices. The market has expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, and the demand is slightly better. The supply - demand is in a tight balance in September and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies for single - side trading; pay attention to the opportunity to expand the PTA processing fee for arbitrage [2]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4378 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan. The EG01 closed at 4319 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have slightly reduced their loads, and overseas devices have little change. The market has expectations for the peak season, and the demand is slightly better. The inventory is low, providing some support. The market is trading on the expectation of new device production, showing a weak oscillation [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold high - level short positions, pay attention to shorting opportunities on rebounds, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of [4235 - 4280] for EG01 [40]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: On September 12, the methanol spot price in East China was 2317 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. The main 01 contract closed at 2379 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [42]. - **Basic Logic**: The device maintenance of methanol has increased, and the supply - side pressure is expected to improve. The demand has slightly improved, and the social inventory has continued to accumulate, but at a slower pace. The cost support is stabilizing [43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 01 contract. Pay attention to the range of [2328 - 2370] for MA01 [45]. Urea - **Basic Logic**: The short - term supply is tight, but the supply is expected to be loose. The domestic demand is weak, while the export is good. The factory inventory has continued to accumulate, and the warehouse receipts are at a high level. The macro - environment has put pressure on prices [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and sell call options [2]. Natural Gas - **Basic Logic**: The U.S. natural gas inventory has increased more than expected, causing the price to weaken. The cooling weather has increased the combustion demand and the winter gas storage, which provides some support [4]. Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end crude oil has rebounded due to geopolitical disturbances, but the supply is in excess. The asphalt supply - demand is generally loose, and the valuation is high [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [4]. Glass - **Basic Logic**: The production and sales in some regions are okay, and the spot price has increased. The supply is under pressure, and the terminal demand is still weak [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long due to peak - season demand support, and short on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4]. Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: The demand for heavy soda ash has improved, and the enterprise inventory has decreased for four consecutive weeks. The supply is expected to be loose after the end of summer maintenance [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long due to slight demand improvement, and short on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For Shanghai Nickel (2510), it is expected to oscillate around the 20 - day moving average. The long - term supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, but there are short - term bullish factors such as the potential impact of Indonesia's mine inspection and the "Golden September and Silver October" demand boost [2]. - For Stainless Steel (2511), it is expected to run in a wide - range oscillation. The market is neutral to bullish in the short term due to factors like firm nickel ore prices, rising nickel iron prices, and good inventory reduction during the "Golden September and Silver October" [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - On September 18, the Shanghai Nickel main contract was at 120,940, down 850 from the previous day; the London Nickel was at 15,335, down 110; the Stainless Steel main contract was at 12,875, down 60. Among the spot prices, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was at 122,700, down 100 [11]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of September 12, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 27,500 tons, with the futures inventory at 23,529 tons, an increase of 514 tons and 1,815 tons respectively. On September 18, LME nickel inventory was 228,450, a decrease of 18; Shanghai Nickel warehouse receipts were 25,866, a decrease of 275 [13][14]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On September 12, the inventory in Wuxi was 583,700 tons, in Foshan was 297,100 tons, and the national inventory was 1,012,500 tons, a decrease of 41,100 tons month - on - month. The 300 - series inventory was 623,700 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons. On September 18, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 90,146, a decrease of 5,119 [18][19]. Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - On September 18, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 29 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged. High - nickel (8 - 12) was at 954.5 yuan per nickel point, up 0.5 [22]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost was 13,155, the scrap steel production cost was 13,562, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 16,859 [24]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 123,586 yuan per ton [27]. Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors include the demand boost expectation during the "Golden September and Silver October", anti - involution policies, and cost support at 120,000 [6]. - Bearish factors include the continuous significant year - on - year increase in domestic production with no new demand growth points, and the year - on - year decline in ternary battery loading [6].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in September 2025 is experiencing a mixed performance, with core cities showing resilience while other areas face significant declines in transaction volumes [1][18]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first half of September 2025, the transaction area in 30 key cities reached 159.3 million square meters, a decrease of 6% compared to the same period last year [1]. - The opening sales rate for projects in these cities was 38%, a slight decrease of 4 percentage points from August 2025 but an increase of 11 percentage points compared to September 2024 [1]. Group 2: City-Specific Trends - Core cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu are performing better than last year, with Shanghai's sales rate at 61%, up 4 percentage points from August 2025 and 12 percentage points from September 2024 [5][6]. - Hangzhou's sales rate was 72%, slightly down from August 2025 but up 27 percentage points from September 2024 [5][6]. - Chengdu had a remarkable sales rate of 100% with only one project launched, indicating strong market interest [6]. Group 3: Visitor and Conversion Rates - In Guangzhou, the average weekly visitor count was around 5,121 since June 2025, with a notable recovery in the second week of September, where visitor numbers increased by 11% and sales surged by 40% [9][10]. - Tianjin also saw a rise in customer conversion rates due to new project launches, with significant increases in sales in specific districts [10][11]. - Wuhan's market heat improved with a project opening rate of 60% in the first half of September, up 26 percentage points from July [13]. Group 4: Market Divergence - There is a clear divergence in market performance, with cities like Xi'an, Zhengzhou, and Nanjing experiencing declining sales and high levels of buyer hesitation [17]. - Overall, the market remains volatile, driven by the concentration of new projects in core cities and enhanced marketing efforts [18].

Group 1 - The automotive market is experiencing a surge in new vehicle launches, with nearly 40 new models expected in September 2023, compared to 17 in the same month of 2024, indicating a significant increase in activity [1] - September 17 alone saw the launch of five new electric vehicle models, including the 2025 Mercedes-Benz EQS and the new Chery Fengyun X3L, highlighting the trend towards electric vehicles [1] - The Chinese government has been supporting the electric vehicle industry by exempting vehicle purchase tax since 2014, with 2023 being the last year for full exemption, and a gradual reduction in tax for 2026 and 2027 [1] Group 2 - Automakers are under pressure to meet annual sales targets, with Geely and BYD leading in completion rates at 63% and 62% respectively, while others like BAIC are struggling at 36% [2] - New energy vehicle brands such as XPeng and Li Auto have shown higher completion rates, while brands like NIO and Zeekr face significant sales challenges with rates below 40% [2] - In response to market pressures, several automakers have introduced promotional strategies, including Tesla's price cuts and financing offers, to stimulate sales [2] Group 3 - Over 20 provinces and cities in China have launched regional purchase subsidies in September, creating a layered subsidy effect to encourage vehicle purchases [3] - For example, Guangxi province has initiated a vehicle purchase subsidy program with amounts ranging from 2,000 to 5,000 yuan, totaling 350 million yuan in subsidies [3] - Local governments are also offering additional incentives such as fuel vouchers and insurance coupons to further promote vehicle sales [3]