Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Short - term copper prices are likely to run strongly around 85,000 yuan. Supply - side disruptions in copper mines continue, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment is high due to the potential shutdown of the US federal government. These two factors drive up the futures price, and copper prices may not decline until these factors subside [3]. - In the next week, copper prices may oscillate at a high level due to the interaction between supply shortages and demand uncertainties. It is estimated that copper prices will fluctuate between 84,000 - 86,000 yuan/ton (SHFE) and 10,500 - 11,000 US dollars/ton (LME) [35][36]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - **Price Changes**: On October 14, the SHFE copper main - contract price dropped from 86,310 yuan/ton to 84,900 yuan/ton, while the LME copper price rebounded slightly from 10,374 US dollars/ton to 10,802 US dollars/ton. The LME (0 - 3) basis strengthened significantly, rising from - 31.19 US dollars/ton to 226.78 US dollars/ton. The domestic premium for premium copper increased from 80 yuan/ton to 150 yuan/ton, and the flat - copper changed from a discount of 5 yuan/ton to a premium of 45 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: LME inventory increased by 2,926 tons to 32,890 tons for three consecutive days of inventory accumulation. SHFE inventory decreased slightly by 50 tons to 139,350 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1,350 short tons to 340,875 short tons [1]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring | Index | October 14, 2025 | October 13, 2025 | September 30, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM: 1 Copper (Premium Copper) | 86,070 yuan/ton | 85,180 yuan/ton | 86,770 yuan/ton | 890 yuan/ton | 1.04% | | SMM: 1 Copper (Flat Copper) | 20 yuan/ton | 45 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | - 25 yuan/ton | - 55.56% | | SMM: 1 Copper (Wet - Process Copper) | - 45 yuan/ton | - 45 yuan/ton | - 75 yuan/ton | 0 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | LME (0 - 3) | 55 US dollars/ton | 227 US dollars/ton | - 31 US dollars/ton | - 172 US dollars/ton | - 75.80% | | SHFE Price | 85,320 yuan/ton | 84,900 yuan/ton | 86,310 yuan/ton | 420 yuan/ton | 0.49% | | LME Price | 10,585 US dollars/ton | 10,802 US dollars/ton | 10,374 US dollars/ton | - 218 US dollars/ton | - 2.01% | | LME Inventory | 36,295 tons | 32,890 tons | 29,964 tons | 3,405 tons | 10.35% | | SHFE Inventory | 138,800 tons | 139,350 tons | 139,400 tons | - 550 tons | - 0.39% | | COMEX Inventory | 342,280 short tons | 340,875 short tons | 339,525 short tons | 1,405 short tons | 0.41% | [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **October 11**: Chile's mining authority is investigating a worker's death at BHP's Escondida copper mine, and the mine is operating normally after the incident [6]. - **October 10**: Codelco's copper production in August dropped significantly to 93,400 tons due to an accident at its El Teniente copper mine, which caused six deaths and subsequent shutdown [6]. - **October 9**: Japan's PPC expects its copper production in the second half of the 2025/26 fiscal year to decline by 2.5% year - on - year to 287,400 tons. Mitsubishi Materials Corporation will reduce the concentrate processing volume of its Onahama smelter by about 25%, equivalent to about 75,000 ore tons in the second half of the year [6]. - **October 9**: Aurubis raised the long - term premium for electrolytic copper in Europe in 2026 to 315 US dollars/ton, a record high [6]. - **October 9**: Teck Resources' Quebrada Blanca copper mine extended its shutdown due to tailings dam construction. Its 2025 copper production guidance was lowered from 210,000 - 230,000 tons to 170,000 - 190,000 tons, and the 2026 forecast production was also reduced. Highland Valley Copper also lowered its 2025 production guidance due to grade decline and maintenance needs [7]. 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on China's PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between the US interest rate and LME copper price, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net - long positions, Shanghai copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [8][10][12]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The copper market is facing supply disruptions due to incidents at major mines, leading to potential operational halts and fluctuations in prices, while demand remains stable but is influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties [1][2][3]. Group 1: Supply Disruptions - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is experiencing a landslide, which may force Freeport Indonesia to suspend operations at the Manyar smelter by the end of October due to a shortage of copper concentrate [1]. - Codelco's copper production significantly dropped to 93,400 tons in August due to an accident at the El Teniente mine, resulting in six fatalities and subsequent mine closure [2]. - Weekly copper concentrate processing fees for imports have shown a slight increase, reflecting instability in overseas mining operations [2]. Group 2: Demand and Market Conditions - Recent data indicates a decrease in operating rates for copper cable and brass rod manufacturers, primarily due to the National Day holiday in China [2]. - Strong export data from China in September, along with ongoing expansion in domestic demand and manufacturing, has improved industrial profits [3]. - The global supply concerns are expected to lead to a continued rebound in copper prices, despite low social inventory levels [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The expectation of tariff relief and tight supply of copper mines support copper prices. Fed rate - cuts, loose fiscal policies in multiple countries, production disruptions in overseas copper mines, and the easing signal after the US threat to impose tariffs on China may make the Shanghai copper price more likely to rise than fall [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Shanghai Copper Futures - **Price and Volume**: On October 13, 2025, the closing price of the active Shanghai copper futures contract was 85,120, down 790 from the previous day. The trading volume was 291,422 lots, an increase of 78,954 lots. The open interest was 201,831 lots, a decrease of 14,284 lots. The inventory was 32,890 tons, an increase of 2,926 tons [1]. - **Basis and Premium**: The Shanghai copper basis was - 75, down 845. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price was 85,045, down 1,635. Various copper premiums and discounts showed different changes [1]. - **Spread**: The spread between the near - month and the first continuous contract of Shanghai copper was - 120, down 110. The spread between the first and the second continuous contracts was 0, unchanged, and the spread between the second and the third continuous contracts was 40, an increase of 70 [1]. 3.2. London Copper - On October 13, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,802, an increase of 428. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 226.78, an increase of 257.97, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 209.5, an increase of 135.30. The Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 7.8800, down 0.40 [1]. 3.3. COMEX Copper - On October 13, 2025, the closing price of the active COMEX copper futures contract was 5.13, down 0.01, and the total inventory was 340,875 tons, an increase of 2,716 tons [1]. 3.4. Supply - Demand - Inventory - **Supply**: There are production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates. The scrap copper supply is expected to be tight, and the processing fees for domestic blister copper or anode plates have begun to rise. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in October has increased month - on - month [1]. - **Demand**: Due to the sharp rise in copper prices, downstream buyers mainly make rigid - demand purchases [1]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper has increased compared with last week. The LME electrolytic copper inventory has decreased, and the COMEX copper inventory has increased [1]. 3.5. Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to mainly lay out long positions when the price falls. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 80,000 and the resistance level around 86,000 - 89,000 for Shanghai copper. For London copper, pay attention to the support level around 9,500 - 10,200 and the resistance level around 11,000 - 12,000. For US copper, pay attention to the support level around 4.0 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 5.5 - 6.0 [1].

Report Title - Nonferrous Metals Weekly - Copper [1] Report Date - October 14, 2025 [2] Core Viewpoint - The expected tight supply and demand of copper concentrates support copper prices. The Fed's expected interest rate cut and fiscal easing in many countries, along with production disruptions in overseas copper mines, are likely to drive up copper prices. However, concerns about the potential easing of Sino-US trade conflicts may disrupt the upward rhythm of Shanghai copper prices. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices fall [3]. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Summary by Directory Part 1: Spread and Inventory Situation - **Spread Analysis**: - Shanghai copper basis is negative and within a reasonable range, and the monthly spread is positive and also within a reasonable range. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in Shanghai copper basis and monthly spreads [9]. - LME copper (0 - 3) contract spread is negative and within a reasonable range, (3 - 15) contract spread is positive and at a relatively high level. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads [10]. - COMEX copper near - far month contract spread is negative and within a reasonable range; LME copper and Shanghai copper spread is negative and within a reasonable range, COMEX copper and Shanghai copper spread is positive and within a reasonable range, COMEX copper and LME copper spread is negative and within a reasonable range [12]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - China's electrolytic copper social inventory increased compared with last week; LME electrolytic copper inventory decreased compared with last week; COMEX copper inventory increased compared with last week [3][20]. - The closing of the import window may limit the import volume of domestic electrolytic copper, causing the inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded area to increase compared with last week [20]. - The ratio of non - commercial long - short positions in COMEX copper decreased month - on - month [21]. Part 2: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - **Copper Concentrate**: - China's port copper concentrate inventory increased compared with last week. The accident at Freeport's Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia may reduce domestic copper concentrate production and imports in October, with the China copper concentrate import index being negative and rising compared with last week [28][30]. - The positive domestic refined - scrap copper price difference may boost the economy of scrap copper. However, due to export restrictions in Europe and uncertainties in Sino - US tariff negotiations, domestic scrap copper production may increase in October while imports may decrease, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation [31][33]. - **Crude Copper and Anode Plate**: - Domestic crude copper production and imports in October may decrease month - on - month. The start - up rate of China's scrap - produced anode plate weekly capacity increased compared with last week, and the processing fee for anode plates increased [34][37][39]. - **Electrolytic Copper**: - Domestic electrolytic copper production in October may decrease month - on - month. Due to production cuts in Congo and Zambia and maintenance plans in Japan, domestic electrolytic copper imports in October may also decrease month - on - month [40][42]. Part 3: Downstream Demand Situation - **Copper Rod**: - The capacity utilization rate of domestic refined (recycled) copper rods decreased compared with last week. The processing fees for power and enameled wire - used refined copper rods in East China decreased, and the raw material and finished product inventories of refined and recycled copper rod enterprises decreased [46][48]. - **Copper Wire and Cable**: - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper wire and cable decreased compared with last week, and the raw material inventory decreased while the finished product inventory increased. The capacity utilization rate of copper wire and cable in October may increase month - on - month [59][61][66]. - **Copper Enameled Wire**: - The order volume and capacity utilization rate of China's copper enameled wire decreased compared with last week, and the raw material and finished product inventory days increased. The capacity utilization rate of copper enameled wire in October may decrease month - on - month [63][65][66]. - **Copper Plate and Strip**: - The capacity utilization rate and production of China's copper plate and strip decreased compared with last week, and the raw material and finished product inventory days increased. The capacity utilization rate of copper plate and strip in October may increase month - on - month [74][76][78]. - **Copper Tube**: - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper tube decreased compared with last week, and the raw material and finished product inventory days increased. The capacity utilization rate of copper tube in October may decrease month - on - month [80][81][87]. - **Brass Rod**: - The capacity utilization rate of China's brass rod decreased compared with last week, and the raw material and finished product inventory days decreased. The capacity utilization rate of brass rod in October may increase month - on - month [82][84][87]. - **Copper Foil**: - The AI - related HVLP ultra - low profile copper foil demand in the copper foil industry has increased significantly, but the capacity utilization rate of lithium - ion and electronic circuit copper foils in October may decrease or increase month - on - month [78].

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 14 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 宏观金融研究团队 021-60635739 有色金属研究团队 021-60635734 黑色金属研究团队 021-60635736 石油化工研究团队 021-60635738 农业产品研究团队 021-60635732 量化策略研究团队 021-60635726 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 沪铜冲高回落，主力最高涨至 88090，伦铜最高涨至 11000，均在前高附近 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - In the short - term, copper prices are mainly oscillating weakly due to the enhanced market expectation of an economic downturn caused by Sino - US trade conflicts, although the fundamentals still support copper prices in the medium - term as domestic demand expectations during the "Golden September and Silver October" period are rising while domestic production is expected to decline slightly [6]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Review - During the National Day holiday, LME copper rose about 5% compared to before the holiday, driven by macro factors such as a 32,000 - person drop in ADP employment data, which strengthened the market's expectation of two Fed rate cuts within the year, and supply - side factors like the shutdown of the Grasberg copper mine and the fermentation of copper mine disruptions. The Shanghai copper main contract rose 4% on the first trading day after the holiday but weakened slightly on the 10th, closing at 85,910 yuan/ton. However, on the Friday night session, copper prices dropped significantly due to Trump's mention of imposing a 100% tariff on China, and are currently at the level of 83,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Supply and Demand - Supply: The Grasberg mine's output in Q4 2025 is nearly zero, about 200,000 tons less than the original guidance, and its 2026 output may drop about 35% from the original plan. Codelco in Chile had a significant year - on - year decline in August output, BHP's copper mine production disruptions increased, and Teck Resources lowered the production target of its large - scale mines. China's refined copper production in September was 1.121 million tons, a 4.31% month - on - month decrease, and is expected to decline 3.43% month - on - month in October. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has proposed to strictly control the expansion of copper smelting capacity, and there may be a global copper mine supply gap in Q4 [4]. - Demand: After the holiday, the State Grid released some orders, and the resumption of work after the holiday is expected to further improve the downstream operating level, but high copper prices have a certain impact on market activity [4]. - Inventory: Global inventories have started to rise slightly. SMM expects an increase in imported and domestic copper supplies, and high copper prices will suppress downstream purchasing sentiment, so inventories are expected to increase this week [4]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Factors - On October 10th, the US announced a 100% tariff on China in response to China's export controls on rare earths and other related items and imposed export controls on all key software, which intensified market concerns about the global economic outlook and led to an increase in risk - aversion sentiment [5].

Core Viewpoint - Jiangxi Copper (600362) shares fell over 6%, closing at HKD 34.18 with a trading volume of HKD 1.313 billion, influenced by renewed US tariff threats on Chinese goods [1] Group 1: Market Impact - On October 10, Trump announced that the US would impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, along with export controls on key software [1] - Following this announcement, both domestic and international copper prices experienced significant declines, with Shanghai copper dropping by 4.5% and LME copper also down by 4.5% [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - Hualian Futures suggests that copper, as an essential raw material for the new economy, will continue to see strong market demand, driving long-term price increases [1] - Goldman Sachs indicated that while they remain optimistic about long-term copper prices, short-term price increases are limited to USD 11,000 per ton due to an oversupply in the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangxi Copper Co., Ltd. (00358) experienced a decline of over 6%, closing at HKD 34.18 with a trading volume of HKD 1.313 billion, influenced by renewed U.S. tariff threats on Chinese goods [1] Group 1: Market Impact - On October 10, former President Trump announced that the U.S. would impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, along with export controls on key software, leading to significant drops in copper prices [1] - Both domestic and international copper prices fell sharply, with Shanghai copper and LME copper both declining by 4.5% [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Hualian Futures suggests that despite short-term negative impacts, the strong demand for copper as an essential raw material for the new economy will drive long-term price increases, presenting a buying opportunity during price corrections [1] - Goldman Sachs indicated that while they remain optimistic about long-term copper prices, short-term price increases are limited to USD 11,000 per ton due to an oversupply in the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article indicates that short-term trade conflicts are suppressing copper prices, but there is an optimistic outlook for copper price increases in the future due to supply constraints and recovering demand [4]. Macroeconomic Factors - On October 10, Trump announced a 100% new tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1, which may exert pressure on copper prices [4]. Supply and Demand - Freeport is reducing copper production for 2025-2026, leading to sustained supply tightness. Demand from downstream sectors like air conditioning is expected to improve in Q4, which may support copper price increases [4]. Inventory Levels - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 18.7% compared to September 29, while LME copper inventory decreased by 0.1% [5]. - As of October 10, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stood at 660,000 tons, up 3.5% week-on-week [5]. Production and Processing - In July 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 138,000 tons, down 6.3% month-on-month and 1.6% year-on-year. Global copper concentrate production was 2.012 million tons, up 7.2% year-on-year and 4.7% month-on-month [6]. - In September 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, down 4.3% month-on-month but up 11.6% year-on-year [7]. Demand Trends - Cable manufacturing, which accounts for 31% of domestic copper demand, saw a decrease in operating rate by 6.91 percentage points to 58.53% as of October 9 [8]. - Air conditioning production is expected to decline year-on-year by 18%, 15%, and 9% for the months of October to December [8]. Futures Market - As of October 10, the open interest for SHFE copper contracts decreased by 5.6% week-on-week, with a total of 216,000 contracts [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report expresses optimism for copper prices to rise in the future due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. - The report highlights that the recent trade conflicts have temporarily suppressed copper prices, but a recovery is expected as downstream demand rebounds in Q4 [1][4]. Supply and Demand Summary - **Supply**: In September 2025, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.3% month-on-month to 1.121 million tons, while year-on-year it increased by 11.6% [3][68]. - **Demand**: The cable industry's operating rate fell by 6.9 percentage points to 58.53% [3][76]. The report notes that air conditioning production is expected to decline year-on-year by 18%, 15%, and 9% for October, November, and December respectively [3][96]. - **Inventory**: Domestic copper social inventory increased by 18.7% compared to September 29, 2025, while LME copper inventory decreased by 0.1% [2][24]. Price and Futures Summary - **Copper Prices**: As of October 10, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 85,910 RMB/ton, up 3.37% from September 30, while LME copper closed at 10,374 USD/ton, down 3.05% from October 3 [1][17]. - **Futures**: The active SHFE copper contract's open interest decreased by 5.6% week-on-week, with a total of 216,000 contracts [4][35]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining, while keeping an eye on Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4].