Copper prices have dropped from the highest levels on record in July, but that doesn't mean a powerful rally in the industrial metal has reached its end. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Macro-level factors like the potential end of the US government shutdown, the continuation of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, and a more relaxed global monetary policy are favorable for copper prices, while on the supply-demand side, the recovery of Indonesian mines and weak short-term spot demand with high inventories may put pressure on the spot market in the future. In the short term, due to news stimulation, the market sentiment is strong and copper prices may fluctuate at a high level, but in the medium term, there is a contradiction between macro expectations and spot demand, with high uncertainty [3][4]. Summary According to Related Content Market Performance - Today, the LME copper rose slightly, trading around $10,785, and the Shanghai copper also rose slightly, closing at 86,480. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper were basically stable, and the market sentiment was neutral [4]. - The Shanghai copper closed at 86,480, and the spot price was 88,610, with the spot at a premium of 130 points over the futures. The spot basis premium was 55 points, and the spot trading improved slightly. The LME spot discount narrowed to -$18 this week, and the external spot demand was average [3]. - This week, the RMB exchange rate rose significantly, and the Yangshan copper premium dropped to a recent low of $33.5, indicating poor domestic spot demand. The ratio of LME copper to Shanghai copper dropped to 8, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper dropped to 496 points, with the external price ratio higher than the internal one [3]. Market Analysis - Macroscopically, the global trade pattern is gradually stabilizing, the Fed's interest rate cut cycle continues, and the global monetary policy tends to be loose, which is beneficial to copper prices; on the supply-demand side, Indonesian mines are gradually resuming production, but the spot demand remains weak in the short term, with high inventories, and there may be pressure on the spot side in the future [4]. - Technically, the technical form of Shanghai copper is neutral. In the short term, market sentiment is strong due to news such as the end of the US government shutdown, and copper prices may fluctuate at a high level. In the medium term, there is a contradiction between macro expectations and spot demand, with high uncertainty [4]. Future Concerns - Future attention should be paid to when the US government shutdown will end, whether the Fed's interest rate cut cycle can continue, and when the current weak spot demand at home and abroad will improve [4].

财达期货｜铜周报 财达期货｜铜周报 2025-11-10 铜价短期震荡走势为主 F3084967 Z0018883 总的来看，鲍威尔言论偏鹰对铜价不利，下游需求不能为铜价提供持续 上行动能，前期冲高后短期有回调压力，铜价可能重回震荡走势，但基本面 支撑较强，中长期还是易涨难跌。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1页共 3页 财达期货｜铜周报 国内外铜期货近期走势 数据来源：同花顺 iFinD 国内铜现货价格近期走势 数据来源：同花顺 iFinD 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 2页共 3页 行情回顾：上周沪铜主力合约周一大幅走弱，延续上周冲高回落的跌势， 后续周内维持震荡走势，周五收于 85920 元/吨，较上周有 1.25%的跌幅。 供需方面，嘉能可（Glencore）公布数据显示前三个季度铜产量下降 17%， 公司还下调了今年铜产量目标。进口铜精矿现货 TC 指数维持在-42 美元/吨 一线，现货冶炼利润持续亏损。SMM 铜线缆企业开工率 63.45%，环比回升 2.66 个百分点，铜价出现回调，缓解了部分前期高铜价对需求的抑制。下游 提货节奏加快，漆包线行业成品库存周转天数也有小幅下降。SM ...

Group 1: Report Title and Date - Title: Copper Weekly Report: Macroeconomic Sentiment Digested, Copper Prices Corrected at High Levels [1] - Date: November 10, 2025 [1] Group 2: Main Viewpoints and Strategies 1. Last Week's Market Review - Last week, Shanghai copper prices corrected at high levels, closing at 85,940 yuan/ton last Friday, with a weekly decline of 1.46%. After the release of positive factors such as the suspension of Sino-US tariff consultations and the Fed's expected interest rate cut, copper prices gave back some gains. In the long - term, the copper price center is supported by the continuous shortage of copper mines and the expected resumption of Grasberg copper mine next year. Domestic electrolytic copper production may remain low due to anti - involution expectations in copper smelting and anode copper supply. High copper prices suppress downstream industries, and terminal demand is mainly for rigid procurement, leading to correction pressure on copper prices. After the correction, copper prices may fluctuate at high levels [5]. 2. Supply Side - The contradiction between mining and smelting persists, and TC is at a low level. As of November 7, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 498,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 8.03%. The spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrate dropped to a historical low of - 42 US dollars/ton. In October, domestic southern crude copper processing fees rebounded slightly. Domestic electrolytic copper production continued to decline. In October, the electrolytic copper production was 1.0916 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.63% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.31%, mainly affected by smelter maintenance and difficulty in anode copper procurement [9]. 3. Demand Side - With the high - level correction of copper prices, the operating rate increased month - on - month. As of November 6, the weekly operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 62%, a month - on - month increase of 1.54 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 14.03 percentage points. The correction of copper prices stimulated the concentrated release of orders, and the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises increased. In September, the operating rates of copper plate and strip, copper foil, and copper rod were 66.02%, 82.17%, and 45.10% respectively. The terminal orders of copper plate and strip increased, but the growth was limited due to high copper prices. The copper rod industry showed a slight recovery, and the strong terminal demand for lithium - ion copper foil boosted the operating rate of copper foil enterprises to a new high for the year [10]. 4. Inventory - Domestic copper inventory continued to accumulate, the de - stocking of LME copper slowed down, and COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate. As of November 7, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 11.50 tons, a weekly decrease of 0.95%. As of November 6, the domestic social copper inventory was 203,300 tons, a weekly increase of 11.34%. As of November 7, the LME copper inventory was 135,900 tons, a weekly increase of 0.95%, and the COMEX copper inventory was 36,940 short tons, a weekly increase of 3.85% [10]. 5. Strategy Suggestion - Macroscopically, the Fed's hawkish remarks increased, the expectation of an interest rate cut in December decreased, and the delay of key US employment data due to the government shutdown made the market sentiment cautious. The strengthening of the US dollar also suppressed copper prices. Fundamentally, the slow resumption of overseas mines did not alleviate the tight supply of copper concentrates, and TC/RC remained at a low level. Domestic electrolytic copper production decreased month - on - month, and short - term supply growth was limited. High copper prices suppressed consumption, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. Near the delivery date, the willingness of holders to support prices increased, and the spot premium rebounded. In the short term, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels, and the operating range of Shanghai copper may be between 84,000 - 88,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading within the range [11]. Group 3: Macroeconomic and Industrial News 1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - China's October RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.6, remaining above the boom - bust line for three consecutive months, indicating continuous improvement in manufacturing prosperity, but the growth rate slowed down. China's exports denominated in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year in October, while imports increased by 1.0%. The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 30,000 ounces in October. The US October ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for the eighth consecutive month, with weak demand and employment. The eurozone's October manufacturing PMI was 50, indicating stagnation. The US officially included copper in the new critical minerals list [15]. 2. Industrial News Overview - Ivanhoe Mines' Q3 profit dropped significantly due to the shutdown of the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine. Glencore plans to close its copper smelter in Canada due to cost issues. Codelco lowered its 2025 copper production forecast. Chile's copper exports to China remained high in October. Lundin Mining raised its 2025 copper production forecast and lowered its cost estimate [17]. Group 4: Spot and Futures Market and Positioning 1. Premium and Discount - As copper prices declined, the sentiment of spot procurement and sales of Shanghai copper improved, and the spot premium rebounded. The LME copper 0 - 3 discount narrowed, and the New York - London copper price difference weakened slightly [20]. 2. Domestic and Foreign Positions - As of November 7, the futures position of Shanghai copper was 207,136 lots, a weekly decrease of 19.81%; the average daily trading volume was 130,438 lots, a weekly decrease of 43.52%. As of October 31, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions was 9,862.02 lots, a weekly increase of 318.60% [26]. Group 5: Fundamental Data 1. Supply Side - The contradiction between mining and smelting persists, and TC is at a low level. Domestic copper concentrate port inventory increased, and the spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrate dropped to a historical low. Domestic electrolytic copper production continued to decline in October [31]. 2. Downstream Operating Rate - As of November 6, the weekly operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises increased month - on - month. In September, the operating rates of copper plate and strip, copper foil, and copper rod showed different trends. Copper foil enterprises' operating rate reached a new high for the year [35]. 3. Inventory - Domestic copper inventory continued to accumulate, the de - stocking of LME copper slowed down, and COMEX copper inventory continued to increase [38].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the copper industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The macro - environment and fundamentals still offer positive support, but high copper prices suppress consumption and there is inventory accumulation pressure. As a result, Shanghai copper is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level [3][4]. 3. Summary by Category Copper Futures Market - **Price and Volume Data**: The latest price of Shanghai Copper Main Contract is 85,940 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.23%. Its position is 207,136 lots, down 51,183 lots from the previous week, and the trading volume is 91,276 lots. Similar declines are seen in other copper futures contracts such as Shanghai Copper Index - weighted, International Copper, LME Copper 3 - month, and COMEX Copper [5]. Copper Spot Market - **Price and Premium Data**: The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 86,015 yuan/ton, down 1.555 yuan/ton (-1.78%) from the previous week. Different spot trading platforms show varying price changes and premium adjustments [9][10]. Copper Advanced Data - **Import Profit, TC, and Ratios**: The copper import profit is - 521.63 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 301.49 yuan/ton (-36.63%). The copper concentrate TC is - 42 dollars/ton, with a slight change. The copper - aluminum ratio and the refined - scrap copper price difference also show certain fluctuations [11]. Copper Inventory - **Inventory Changes**: The total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts are 43,394 tons, up 3,684 tons (9.28%) from the previous week. Different inventory types, including international copper, LME copper, COMEX copper, and social inventories, show various trends [17][19]. Copper Mid - stream Production - **Output and Capacity Utilization**: In September 2025, the refined copper production was 1.266 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.1%, and the cumulative production was 11.125 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. The capacity utilization rates of different copper products in the mid - stream, such as copper rods, plates, and tubes, show different levels of change [22][24]. Copper Element Import - **Import Volume and Growth**: In September 2025, the import volume of copper concentrate was 2.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. Different types of copper imports, including anode copper, cathode copper, scrap copper, and copper products, show different growth trends [28].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - Ferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Copper prices are expected to oscillate upwards as they return to the logic of improved macro - atmosphere, strong medium - term fundamentals, and short - term high prices suppressing spot demand [10] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Copper prices rose, the US dollar index declined, and risk assets rose across the board. Shanghai copper reached 86,000, with total positions decreasing by 299 lots. Spot copper rose 660 to 85,995, and the premium rose to 30 [10] - Due to the rising copper prices, downstream buyers showed obvious fear of high prices. The social inventory in China increased by 0.32 tons this week compared with Monday, indicating weak short - term demand [10] - The LME0 - 3 contango widened to 38, the spot import loss was nearly 500 yuan/ton, and the trading volume of Yangshan copper was limited [10] Group 5: Industry News - There are rumors that Glencore plans to shut down the Horne smelter and CCR refinery in Canada. The two facilities have a combined annual output of over 300,000 tons of copper, accounting for about 17% of US imports. If the shutdown plan is implemented, it will exacerbate the global supply shortage [11] - Kenadyr Metals Corp. announced that its Adelita copper - gold - silver project has obtained all social, environmental, and exploration permits and a 20 - year mining license. The first - phase exploration plan will start in November [11] - On November 5, Zambia reopened its border with Tanzania, resuming the flow of goods on an important trade corridor. The average number of trucks cleared in each direction per day is 250 [11]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 2、基差：现货85845，基差-475，贴水期货； 中性。 3、库存：11月6日铜库存增500至134475吨，上期所铜库存较上周增11348吨至116140吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向上运行；中性。 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铜: 每日观点 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，10月份中国制造业生产活动 较上月放缓，制造业采购经理指数(PMI)降至49.0%；中性。 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政治扰动。 2、美联储降息。 3、矿端增产缓慢,自由港印尼矿区减产事件 6、预期：库存回 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 6, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] - Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [4] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai copper price bottomed out and rebounded. The main contract of Shanghai copper dropped to a minimum of 84,900 during the day, and the total open interest decreased by 4,052. The US dollar index above 100 and the overnight slump in overseas stock markets pressured the copper price, causing it to return to the mid - October trading range. The spot price dropped by 1,255 to 85,335, the spot premium rose by 25, and downstream short - term centralized restocking occurred. The spot import loss narrowed to around 520, and the LME 0 - 3 contango structure widened to 30.45. The domestic spot showed resistance to decline when the copper price fell. It is expected that the copper price will stop falling around 85,000 as downstream demand is released and the US dollar index is difficult to have a unilateral upward trend [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai copper price bottomed out and rebounded. The main contract hit a low of 84,900 during the day, with a 4,052 decrease in total open interest. The US dollar index above 100 and the overnight slump in overseas stock markets increased selling sentiment, pushing the copper price back to the mid - October range. The spot price dropped by 1,255 to 85,335, the spot premium rose by 25, and downstream short - term restocking took place. The spot import loss narrowed to around 520, and the LME 0 - 3 contango structure widened to 30.45. The domestic spot was resistant to decline. It is expected that the copper price will stop falling around 85,000 [10]. 2. Industry News - Kinterra Capital and its subsidiary received a non - binding letter of intent from the US Export - Import Bank for up to $200 million in debt financing. $180 million will be used to restart the Pumpkin Hollow underground copper mine in Nevada, and $20 million for technology R & D of the Southwest open - pit project. The mine has invested over $1 billion in infrastructure, is expected to restart underground mining in Q2 2026, and will gradually achieve an annual domestic copper supply of about 60 million pounds (about 27,200 tons) after production [11]. - Codelco lowered its 2025 copper production forecast to 1.31 - 1.34 million tons from the previous 1.34 - 1.37 million tons. It still plans to exceed last year's 1.321 million tons. The company emphasized the output growth at the Ministro Hales mine and the role of the Rajo|nca project at the Salvador mine in increasing production. The CEO said the adjustment would not affect the 2030 target of 1.7 million tons per year [11][12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The US government shutdown continues to affect market risk appetite, and the copper market has been weak recently. The downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the support during the peak season has weakened. There is no clear signal for copper prices [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened low and moved high, showing a weak trend during the day. The US Senate failed to pass the government's temporary appropriation bill again, and the government shutdown may break the historical record. The copper ore resources are tight, and the accident at the Indonesian copper mine is expected to affect the global copper supply until next year. Although the copper concentrate inventory has increased this week, it is still significantly lower than the same period last year. The market expects the long - term contract price to be zero or negative. In October, 8 smelters were under maintenance, and 5 are expected to be under maintenance in November, leading to a downward trend in copper production. With the recent rise in copper prices, the downstream demand has been suppressed, and the downstream operating rates have slightly declined. The Shanghai copper inventory has increased slightly [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened low and moved high, showing a weak trend during the day. - Spot: The spot premium in East China is 30 yuan/ton, and in South China it is - 15 yuan/ton. On November 3, 2025, the LME official price was 10624 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 24 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of November 4, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 42.06 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.13 cents/pound [8]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory is 42,600 tons, an increase of 6816 tons from the previous period. As of November 3, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 100,100 tons, a decrease of 6500 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory is 133,900 tons, a decrease of 1025 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory is 360,500 short tons, an increase of 2826 short tons from the previous period [11].

Core Viewpoint - Recent concerns over overseas liquidity have led to a decline in copper prices, with a closing drop of 0.88%. The market is closely monitoring supply and demand dynamics moving forward [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Copper prices opened lower and experienced a slight narrowing of the decline during the day, closing down 0.88% [1] - The rebound of the US dollar and the overall decline in commodity prices in the US market have contributed to the downward shift in copper prices [1] - Despite an increase in production in the first nine months of the year, Codelco has revised its 2025 production forecast down from 1.34-1.37 million tons to 1.31-1.34 million tons [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand - Concerns about tight supply persist as some overseas mining companies have lowered their production and sales forecasts [1] - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees are hovering around -40 USD, indicating a challenging environment for producers [1] - The social inventory of refined copper in China continues to accumulate, suggesting limited purchasing willingness from downstream sectors due to high prices [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Jinrui Futures indicates that the market logic may remain macro-driven, with less optimistic expectations for US-China negotiations and differing views on the Federal Reserve's future policy path, leading to a stronger dollar and a pullback in copper prices [1] - The macroeconomic situation has not fully reversed, and the tight supply backdrop remains unchanged, suggesting that copper prices may maintain high volatility in the short term [1]