Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing fluctuations with current spot prices lower than futures prices, indicating a potential opportunity for investors to monitor market movements closely [1][2]. Price Summary - On July 4, the spot price of silver in Shanghai was quoted at 8897.00 yuan per kilogram, which is 22.00 yuan lower than the futures price of 8919.00 yuan per kilogram [1]. - The market prices for 1 silver (IC-Ag99.99) varied slightly across different trading platforms in Shanghai, with quotes ranging from 8897 yuan to 8913 yuan per kilogram [2]. - The Shanghai silver futures market closed at 8919.00 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a 0.59% increase, with a daily trading volume of 385,997 contracts [2]. Market Insights - As of July 3, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a silver futures warehouse receipt of 1,340,792 kilograms, which is an increase of 2,133 kilograms from the previous trading day [2]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) reported a silver futures trading volume of 60,640 contracts on July 3, an increase of 15,784 contracts from the previous day, with open interest rising by 2,016 contracts to 166,220 [2]. Analytical Perspective - According to Ningzheng Futures research, the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" Act may lead to a new round of economic recovery in the U.S., which is bullish for silver [2]. - Despite a significant increase in U.S. non-farm payrolls, expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have weakened, suggesting a resilient U.S. economy that could support risk assets, including silver [2]. - The potential for further silver price increases appears limited, and the market may remain in a consolidation phase, warranting cautious observation [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices showed mixed performance, with the T2509 contract falling 0.02% and the positions changing little. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates generally declined. Key - term Treasury bond yields in China also showed mixed trends, with the 10Y Treasury bond yield rising 0.45bp to 1.64%. Overseas, US, German, and Japanese key - term Treasury bond yields had different changes. At present, the external environment is more complex, the domestic real - estate market is not yet stable, effective demand is insufficient, and prices are continuously low. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, and the loose capital situation will support Treasury bond futures prices [2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Prices and Positions**: The prices of Treasury bond futures showed mixed performance. For example, the T2509 contract fell 0.02%. The positions of some contracts changed, such as the T2509 contract's positions changing little, while the positions of other contracts had increases or decreases. The trading volume of each contract also varied [2]. - **IRR**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Short - term Market Interest Rates - Short - term market interest rates generally declined. SHIBOR7 - day interest rate dropped 4.1bp, DR007 interest rate dropped 5.2bp, and GC007 interest rate dropped 5.3bp [2]. Domestic Treasury Bond Yields - Key - term Treasury bond yields in China showed mixed trends. The 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 0.45bp to 1.64%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 23.01bp [2]. Overseas Treasury Bond Yields - US 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 5bp, German 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 0bp, and Japanese 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 1.5bp [2]. Macro News - **Domestic**: The central bank conducted 572 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on July 3, with a net withdrawal of 452.1 billion yuan. The Caixin China Services PMI in June was 50.6, down 0.5 percentage points from May. The National Development and Reform Commission arranged over 300 billion yuan to support the third - batch of "two major" construction projects in 2025, and most institutions expect the annual infrastructure investment growth rate to reach 6% [3]. - **Overseas**: US non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, far exceeding expectations. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%. The market abandoned the bet on a Fed rate cut in July, and the probability of a rate cut in September dropped to about 80%. The US House of Representatives passed the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill, which will increase the federal government's debt ceiling by 5 trillion US dollars and may increase the government budget deficit by 3.4 trillion US dollars in the next decade [3]. Industry Information - On July 3, most money - market interest rates in China declined, with some reaching new lows. US Treasury bond yields rose collectively, mainly due to strong US labor - market data, which cooled market expectations of a Fed rate cut [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The better-than-expected US non-farm data has significantly reduced the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut, while US stocks have shown an independent upward trend. Attention should be paid to the possible tariff agreements the US may reach with other countries before July 9. For China, the second-phase trade negotiation between China and the US has been implemented, with the restrictions on chip design EDA and ethane lifted, and the tariff negotiation related to China may be postponed to August. The domestic A-share market remains in a structural stock game. Although the index rebounded on Thursday, the trading volume shrank, and the index may face divergence in the short term. The index will generally fluctuate between 3400 - 3500, and the dumbbell strategy remains unchanged [2][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis Overseas Market - US non-farm employment in June was 147,000, higher than the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 144,000; the unemployment rate was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2%, indicating the resilience of the US labor market and significantly reducing the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. The probability of a 25BP rate cut in July dropped to 4.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 25BP rate cut in September dropped to 64%. Affected by the decline in rate cut expectations, the US dollar index rose, the yields of short - and long - term US bonds increased, gold prices fell, crude oil prices closed down, but the three major US stock indexes rose independently, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose, and the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciated. Attention should be paid to US tariff news as the July 9 tariff suspension deadline approaches [1][6]. Domestic Market - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened higher, fluctuated, and rose 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.17%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.9%. The market showed a volatile recovery trend. Blue - chip stocks such as banks dragged down the market, showing a pattern of stronger Shenzhen and weaker Shanghai. Ningde Times had the greatest contribution to the rise of the ChiNext Index. Sector rotation continued, and the sustainability of the marine economy and anti - involution sectors was poor. The consumer electronics sector strengthened, mainly stimulated by the easing of Sino - US trade relations. Although the technology sector remained active, the lack of incremental funds in the market made it difficult to drive up. In terms of sectors, electronics, power equipment, medicine and biology, communication, and building materials led the gains, while coal, transportation, steel, and petroleum and petrochemicals led the losses. There were 3,270 rising stocks and 1,863 falling stocks in the whole market [1][7]. 2. Important Information - US Treasury Secretary Besent warned countries not to delay trade negotiations, stating that tariffs could return to the level of April 2, and about 100 countries are expected to receive at least 10% reciprocal tariffs. Trump will decide whether to extend the July 9 deadline. - Trump will send letters to trade partners as early as Friday local time to inform them of unilateral tariff rates. - EU aims to reach a "principled agreement" with the Trump administration before July 9; Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru said Trump may be misled on tariff issues; Indonesia will sign a $34 billion trade and investment memorandum of understanding with the US; Canadian Finance Minister said Canada can reach an optimal trade agreement with the US and there will be no more digital tax. - The US "Big and Beautiful" bill was passed in the House of Representatives with two Republican lawmakers defecting, and Trump will sign it early on Saturday. - Trump had a phone call with Putin to discuss the Middle East situation and Russia - Ukraine negotiations, and also plans to have a phone call with Zelensky on Friday to discuss military aid issues. - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that rare earths will not be a problem between China and the EU. - The US - Vietnam trade agreement will impose a 40% tariff on transshipment goods, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry said that relevant agreements should not harm third - parties. - The State Council issued a document to replicate and promote 77 pilot measures of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone [8][9][10]. 3. Futures Market Tracking - The report provides detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and positions of various stock index futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volume changes, and position changes [15][16]. 4. Spot Market Tracking - The report presents the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading volumes, and valuations of major domestic stock indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index, as well as the performance of various sectors and the impact of market styles on different indexes [39][40][41]. 5. Liquidity Tracking - The report shows the central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest rate level, including currency injection, currency withdrawal, and net currency injection, as well as the interest rates of different tenors of Shibor [54][55][56].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Silver, industrial silicon, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil [1] - **Bearish**: Alumina, zinc, tin, log, LPG [1][2] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, bond futures, gold, copper, nickel, stainless steel, rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, ferrosilicon, manganese silicon, coking coal, coke, cotton, corn, soybeans, pulp, live pigs, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, ethylene glycol, short fiber, styrene, PVC, VCM, shipping freight rates [1][2] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the market trading volume is gradually shrinking, and there are few positive factors at home and abroad. The stock index faces resistance in breaking through upward and may show an oscillating pattern. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short-term warning on interest rate risks suppresses the upward space. The strong non-farm payrolls in June dampened the expectation of interest rate cuts, which may suppress the price of gold, but the high uncertainty of tariff policies and tax reform bills supports the price of gold. The macro and commodity attributes still support the price of silver, which may be strong in the short term [1]. - The unexpected non-farm payrolls in the United States dampened the expectation of interest rate cuts. The copper price may oscillate due to the overseas squeeze risk. The aluminum price has a risk of decline due to the cooling expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts and the high price suppressing downstream demand. The price of alumina and zinc may be weak. The nickel price has rebounded in the short term, but the upward space is limited, and the medium- and long-term excess of primary nickel still exerts pressure. The stainless steel has rebounded in the short term, but the sustainability remains to be observed. The price of tin has a risk of decline due to the weakening of the macro sentiment and the limited production expectation in the glass and photovoltaic industries [1]. - The industrial silicon is favored by the production cut of large factories in Xinjiang, the marginal increase in the demand for polysilicon, and the high market sentiment. The polysilicon is expected to have a supply-side reform in the photovoltaic market and high market sentiment. The supply of lithium carbonate has not decreased, the downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and the factory procurement is not active. The rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore may oscillate due to the short-term production restriction of some steel mills. The price of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is under pressure due to the weakening of supply and demand. The coking coal and coke may oscillate, and the industry customers can take advantage of the premium to establish futures-spot positive hedging positions [1]. - The palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are favored by the latest US tax bill from the demand side, and the short-term view is bullish. The domestic cotton price is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend due to the entry of the domestic cotton spinning industry into the consumption off-season and the accumulation of downstream finished product inventory. The sugar production in Brazil in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high, and the production may exceed expectations if the crude oil continues to be weak. The corn price may oscillate, and the C01 contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies. The soybean price may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The pulp price is currently undervalued with macro positives. The log price is weak. The live pig futures may be stable due to the weak impact of the current slaughter on the spot price [1]. - The crude oil and fuel oil may oscillate due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation, the possible continuation of the OPEC+ production increase operation, and the support of the current consumption peak season in Europe and the United States. The asphalt price may decline slowly due to the cost drag, the possible increase in the consumption tax rebate in Shandong, and the slow recovery of demand. The BR rubber price is expected to be weak in the short term. The PTA price is becoming more abundant in the spot market, and the polyester replenishment willingness is not high due to the profit compression. The ethylene glycol price is expected to oscillate due to the large arrival volume in the later period and the impact of the concentrated procurement of polyester production and sales [1]. - The short fiber price may oscillate due to the small number of registered warehouse receipts and the close follow-up of costs. The styrene price may oscillate due to the increase in the device load and the weakening of the basis. The PVC price may oscillate strongly due to the positive impact of the anti-involution policy on the spot, the end of the maintenance, the commissioning of new devices, and the arrival of the seasonal off-season for downstream demand. The VCM price may oscillate due to the end of the maintenance, the decline of the spot price to a low level, the decline of liquid chlorine eroding the comprehensive profit, and the small number of current warehouse receipts. The LPG price has a downward space in the short term due to the seasonal off-season of combustion and chemical demand and the narrow spread between industrial and civil use [2]. - The shipping freight rate on the European route is expected to peak in the first half of July and show an arc-shaped top in July and August, with the peak time advancing. The subsequent weeks will have sufficient shipping capacity deployment [2]. Summary by Industry Segments Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Faces resistance in breaking through upward and may show an oscillating pattern due to the shrinking trading volume and few positive factors at home and abroad. Follow-up attention should be paid to the guidance of macro incremental information on the direction of the stock index [1]. - **Bond Futures**: Favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short-term warning on interest rate risks suppresses the upward space [1]. - **Gold**: The strong non-farm payrolls in June dampened the expectation of interest rate cuts, which may suppress the price, but the high uncertainty of tariff policies and tax reform bills supports the price [1]. - **Silver**: The macro and commodity attributes still support the price, which may be strong in the short term [1]. Non-Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: May oscillate due to the overseas squeeze risk and the unexpected non-farm payrolls in the United States dampening the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - **Aluminum**: Has a risk of decline due to the cooling expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts and the high price suppressing downstream demand [1]. - **Alumina**: The price may be weak due to the unexpected non-farm payrolls in the United States dampening the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - **Zinc**: Has a risk of decline due to the unexpected non-farm payrolls in the United States and the continuous inventory accumulation [1]. - **Nickel**: Has rebounded in the short term, but the upward space is limited, and the medium- and long-term excess of primary nickel still exerts pressure. Short-term interval operation is recommended, and follow-up attention should be paid to the improvement of demand [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Has rebounded in the short term, but the sustainability remains to be observed. Short-term operation is recommended, and follow-up attention should be paid to the raw material changes and the steel mill production schedule [1]. - **Tin**: Has a risk of decline due to the weakening of the macro sentiment and the limited production expectation in the glass and photovoltaic industries [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Favored by the production cut of large factories in Xinjiang, the marginal increase in the demand for polysilicon, and the high market sentiment [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Expected to have a supply-side reform in the photovoltaic market and high market sentiment [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply has not decreased, the downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and the factory procurement is not active [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: May oscillate due to the short-term production restriction of some steel mills. Temporary waiting and observation are recommended [1]. - **Hot-Rolled Coil**: May oscillate due to the short-term production restriction of some steel mills. Temporary waiting and observation are recommended [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The upward space is suppressed by the production restriction of steel mills, but the high short-term demand provides support [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The price is under pressure due to the weakening of supply and demand. The production decreases under the pressure of profit, and the demand weakens marginally [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is under pressure due to the short-term increase in production, the weakening of demand, and the insufficient cost support [1]. - **Coking Coal**: May oscillate, and the industry customers can take advantage of the premium to establish futures-spot positive hedging positions. The short-term trading level cannot be falsified, so the short positions on the futures market can be temporarily avoided [1]. - **Coke**: Similar to coking coal, focus on the opportunity of futures premium for selling hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil**: Favored by the latest US tax bill from the demand side, the short-term view is bullish. Follow-up attention should be paid to the hearing on the 8th and the supply and demand reports from the producing areas [1]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton price is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend due to the entry of the domestic cotton spinning industry into the consumption off-season and the accumulation of downstream finished product inventory. Follow-up attention should be paid to the progress of the US economic recession and the Sino-US tariff war [1]. - **Sugar**: The sugar production in Brazil in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high, and the production may exceed expectations if the crude oil continues to be weak. Follow-up attention should be paid to the impact of the crude oil price on the sugar production ratio in Brazil's new crushing season [1]. - **Corn**: The short-term import of corn and the release of brown rice have impacted the market, but the impact is within the market expectation. The old crop of corn has a tightening supply and demand expectation, and the decline of the futures price is expected to be limited. The C01 contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [1]. - **Soybeans**: May oscillate due to the strong US soybeans under the expectation of Sino-US trade negotiations and the slight decline of the Brazilian premium. The domestic oil mills have a phenomenon of urging提货, and the basis is weak. Short-term attention should be paid to the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations, and waiting and observation are recommended [1]. - **Pulp**: The outer quotation has decreased, the shipping volume has increased, the domestic demand is weak, and the current valuation is low, with macro positives [1]. - **Log**: The current season is the off-season, and the supply decreases limitedly even when the outer price rises. The view is weak [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The inventory is expected to be abundant on the futures market, and the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price. The short-term spot price is less affected by the slaughter, but the overall decline is limited, so the futures price remains stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: May oscillate due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation, the possible continuation of the OPEC+ production increase operation, and the support of the current consumption peak season in Europe and the United States [1]. - **Fuel，Oil**: Similar to crude oil, may oscillate due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation, the possible continuation of the OPEC+ production increase operation, and the support of the current consumption peak season in Europe and the United States [1]. - **Asphalt**: The price may decline slowly due to the cost drag, the possible increase in the consumption tax rebate in Shandong, and the slow recovery of demand [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The price is expected to be weak in the short term due to the limited support from the raw material end, the pressure on the synthetic rubber fundamentals, the high basis, and the follow-up of the butadiene price. Follow-up attention should be paid to the price adjustment of butadiene and the spot price of cis-polybutadiene rubber, as well as the de-stocking progress of synthetic rubber [1]. - **PTA**: The price is becoming more abundant in the spot market, and the polyester replenishment willingness is not high due to the profit compression. The polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of load reduction, and the bottle chips and short fibers will enter the maintenance cycle in July [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is expected to oscillate due to the large arrival volume in the later period and the impact of the concentrated procurement of polyester production and sales. The macro sentiment has improved, and the chemical industry has followed the downward trend of the crude oil price [1]. - **Short Fiber**: May oscillate due to the small number of registered warehouse receipts and the close follow-up of costs. The short fiber factory has a maintenance plan [2]. - **Styrene**: May oscillate due to the increase in the device load and the weakening of the basis. The market speculative demand has weakened, and the pure benzene price has rebounded slightly [2]. - **PVC**: May oscillate strongly due to the positive impact of the anti-involution policy on the spot, the end of the maintenance, the commissioning of new devices, and the arrival of the seasonal off-season for downstream demand [2]. - **VCM**: May oscillate due to the end of the maintenance, the decline of the spot price to a low level, the decline of liquid chlorine eroding the comprehensive profit, and the small number of current warehouse receipts. Follow-up attention should be paid to the change of liquid chlorine [2]. - **LPG**: Has a downward space in the short term due to the seasonal off-season of combustion and chemical demand, the narrow spread between industrial and civil use, and the slow decline of the spot price [2]. Others - **Shipping Freight Rate on the European Route**: Expected to peak in the first half of July and show an arc-shaped top in July and August, with the peak time advancing. The subsequent weeks will have sufficient shipping capacity deployment [2].

Price Trends - The overall gold price in the domestic market remains above 1000 yuan per gram, with specific prices from various brands showing slight fluctuations [1][4] - The highest price is from Liufu Gold at 1005 yuan per gram, while the lowest is from Shanghai China Gold at 969 yuan per gram, resulting in a price difference of 36 yuan per gram [1][3] Brand Price Summary - Liufu Gold: 1005 yuan/gram (no change) [1] - Zhou Dafu: 1005 yuan/gram (no change) [1] - Zhou Liufu: 985 yuan/gram (up 7 yuan) [1] - Lao Miao: 999 yuan/gram (down 3 yuan) [1] - Lao Fengxiang: 1003 yuan/gram (down 3 yuan) [3] - Chao Hongji: 1005 yuan/gram (no change) [3] - Zhou Shengsheng: 1004 yuan/gram (down 6 yuan) [3] - Cai Bai: 978 yuan/gram (no change) [3] - Shanghai China Gold: 969 yuan/gram (no change) [3] International Market Influence - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, reducing the likelihood of a near-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has strengthened the dollar and put pressure on gold prices [6] - As of the latest report, spot gold is trading at 3342.15 USD/ounce, reflecting a 0.48% increase [6] - The market is closely monitoring the implications of U.S. tariff announcements, which could have both short-term negative and long-term positive effects on gold [6]

Market Overview - Strong U.S. employment data has alleviated market concerns regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a significant increase in the U.S. dollar index, which rose to a high of 97.42 before closing at 97.08, up 0.32% [1][2] - The precious metals market showed mixed results, with spot gold experiencing a substantial decline, dropping to a low of $3311.65, a decrease of over $50 from its daily high, ultimately closing down 0.94% at $3325.50 per ounce [1][2] - Spot silver, while also retreating, saw a strong rebound, closing up 0.78% at $36.82 per ounce [1][2] Employment Data - The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report indicated an increase of 147,000 jobs in the U.S., surpassing the June expectation of 110,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate decreasing from 4.2% to 4.1% [3] - Weekly jobless claims fell from 237,000 to 233,000, reflecting resilience in the U.S. labor market [3] - The ADP employment change for June marked the first decline in over two years, with a reduction of 33,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 95,000 jobs [3] Manufacturing and Job Vacancies - The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index improved from 48.5 in May to 49.0 in June, exceeding expert expectations of 48.8, indicating a slight recovery in U.S. manufacturing activity [4] - Job openings in the U.S. rose from 4.395 million in April to 4.76 million in May, surpassing the market expectation of 7.3 million [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - The price of finished steel is expected to move in a range of consolidation [2]. - The price of aluminum is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [3]. 3) Summary by Related Contents Finished Steel - Yunguizhou short - process construction steel producers' shutdown during the Spring Festival is expected to affect a total output of 741,000 tons, and 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui will also shut down, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [1][2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [2]. - Finished steel prices continued to decline, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center of gravity moved down, and winter storage was lackluster, providing little price support [2]. Aluminum - On July 3, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 474,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from Monday and 11,000 tons from last Thursday. It is expected that the inventory will increase steadily in early July [2]. - As of Thursday, the national metallurgical alumina's total built - in capacity is 110.82 million tons/year, the operating capacity is 88.63 million tons/year, and the weekly operating rate decreased by 0.31 percentage points to 79.97%. By the end of June, the alumina inventory in enterprises increased by 81,000 tons [2]. - This week, the operating rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% due to factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand [2]. - The better - than - expected US employment data strengthened the expectation that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates early. The market now expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in October and cut rates by 51 basis points by the end of the year, lower than the previous expectation of about 66 basis points [1]. - The current off - season inventory accumulation has emerged, the impact of the rainy season in Guinea is reflected in the ore price, but the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space. Macro - risk pricing has increased, and short - term aluminum prices are expected to move within a range [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The U.S. Congress House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which will raise the federal government's statutory debt ceiling by $5 trillion and may increase the government budget deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade [1]. - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures down 0.71% and COMEX silver futures up 0.85%. The Fed's policy shift expectation and trade tensions support the gold price, but strong non - farm payroll data weakens the safe - haven demand [1]. - For major varieties, methanol is short - term bullish, glass is in a inventory - digestion cycle, and gold has long - term support but is hesitant to rise at high prices [2][3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Main News Focus International News - The U.S. Department of Commerce revoked the requirement for three major global chip design software suppliers to apply for government licenses for their business in China. Siemens fully restored Chinese customers' access to its software and technology, while Synopsys and Cadence are gradually restarting related services [5]. Domestic News - China and the EU held the 13th round of high - level strategic dialogue. Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that China and the EU should strengthen exchanges and cooperation. He also responded to the issue of China's rare - earth export control, stating that it should not be a problem between China and the EU [6]. Industry News - The State Council issued a document to replicate and promote 77 pilot measures of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, including 34 measures for other free trade zones and 43 measures for the whole country [7]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.83%, the European STOXX 50 rose 0.28%, the FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.98%, and the U.S. dollar index rose 0.35%. ICE Brent crude oil fell 0.43%, London gold spot fell 0.92%, and London silver rose 0.77%. Other commodities also had different price changes [9]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The U.S. three major indexes rose. The previous trading day, the stock index rebounded. The electronic sector led the rise, and the coal sector led the decline. The market turnover was 1.33 trillion yuan. It is recommended to be bullish on stock index futures and buy options on stock index options. A - shares have high investment value in the long - term [10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds showed mixed performance. The central bank's open - market operations at the beginning of the month were mainly net withdrawals, and the market liquidity was relatively loose. The U.S. economic data and policy changes affected the U.S. bond yield. The domestic economic situation supported the Treasury bond futures price [11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices fell slightly at night. The uncertainty of tariffs and the end of the 90 - day tariff suspension on July 9th raised concerns about economic impact and fuel demand. The U.S. labor market was healthy, and the number of U.S. online drilling oil wells decreased [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 0.88%. The average operating load of domestic coal - to - olefin (methanol) plants decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory increased. It is short - term bullish [2][14]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber futures fluctuated. The new rubber supply in producing areas was affected by weather, and the raw rubber price was supported. The inventory in Qingdao area fluctuated, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins traded in a narrow range. The consumption of polyolefins entered the off - season, and the cost support weakened. It is necessary to focus on the supply contraction effect during the summer device maintenance [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures did not continue the rebound, and the inventory decreased slightly. Soda ash futures fell, and the inventory increased. Both are in the inventory - digestion cycle, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand balance [17]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metal prices fell. The better - than - expected U.S. non - farm employment data reduced the Fed's early - rate - cut expectation. Gold has long - term support but is hesitant to rise at high prices. Attention should be paid to policy uncertainties [18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices closed lower at night. The low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices tested smelting output. The domestic downstream demand was stable overall, and copper prices may fluctuate in a range [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices closed higher at night. The concentrate processing fees continued to rise. The domestic demand showed mixed performance, and zinc prices may fluctuate widely [20]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed down 0.17% at night. The Fed's easing expectation boosted the non - ferrous sector. The alumina market was in a complex situation, and the aluminum ingot inventory increased slightly. Shanghai aluminum may oscillate at a high level [21]. - **Nickel**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed up 0.86% at night. The nickel ore supply in Indonesia was tight, and the price of Philippine nickel ore rose. The nickel market had both bullish and bearish factors, and nickel prices may oscillate [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium ore price showed signs of stopping falling. The weekly output of lithium carbonate increased, and the inventory also increased. The lithium market is still in a weak situation [23][24]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore was supported by the strong production momentum of steel mills. The global iron ore shipment decreased recently, and the port inventory decreased rapidly. Iron ore prices may be supported in the short - term and weaken in the later period [25]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel gradually emerged, and the inventory continued to decrease. The steel export was affected by tariffs and anti - dumping, and the demand for both building materials and plates may weaken in the later period. The steel market may be in a weak and oscillating state [26]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Soybean and rapeseed meal futures rose at night. The U.S. soybean growth data was mixed, and the domestic oil - mill operation rate increased, which may lead to an increase in soybean meal inventory [27]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil futures were strongly oscillating at night, while soybean and rapeseed oil futures fell slightly. The Malaysian palm oil inventory, production, and export data showed different trends, and the oils and fats may continue to oscillate [28]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index oscillated, and the 08 contract rose 0.11%. The market's pessimistic expectation about the peak season of European routes was repaired, and the freight rate may be stable in the later period. Attention should be paid to the shipping companies' price - increase notices and macro - tariff factors [29].

受强于预期的非农数据打压，周四（7月3日），国际金价冲高回落，日K线呈现小阴线形态，结束前期 三连阳的震荡回升走势。预计短线金价将陷入震荡回落之中，继续在3300美元整数关口附近震荡。 基本面上看，超强的非农就业数据，显示美国劳动力市场韧性犹存，推迟了市场对美联储的降息预期， 美元指数强势回升，黄金则受阻回落。 美国劳工统计局发布的数据显示，6月非农就业人口增加14.7万，远超市场预期的11万，前值从13.9万上 修至14.4万。失业率意外下降至4.1%，低于市场预期的4.3%和前值的4.2%。此外，当周初请失业金人数 也略低于预期；5月贸易逆差收窄至964.2亿美元。 在美联储降息预期减弱的同时，中东地区局势整体相对缓和，也使得短期内黄金市场缺乏重要信息刺 激，维持在3300美元关口附近的反复震荡的概率增大。 技术上看，金价在3250美元附近止跌之后，连续三连阳的回升，把金价从布林带下轨拉升至布林带中轨 附近，然而，在3365美元一线受阻，并短线回落，导致金价再次向下调整的可能性增加。从目前走势来 看，金价中短期均线黏合，没有明显的方向趋势，震荡横盘可能是主要态势。同时今日（7月4日）美国 市场提前休市，也 ...

当地时间7月3日公布的美国6月新增非农就业和失业率均超预期强劲，显示美国劳动力市场仍有韧性， 但前一日公布的有"小非农"之称的美国ADP就业人数则"爆冷转负"减少3.3万人，录得2023年3月以来的 最大降幅，使得市场对美联储降息预期再度出现摇摆。 对于两份天差地别的美国就业报告，接受新华财经采访的分析师多数认为，美国就业市场结构正逐步恶 化，政府部门占新增非农就业人数一半，私人部门就业人数较上个月减少了6.3万，劳动力市场整体趋 弱。但6月非农就业数据可以让美联储进一步观察夏季关税对通胀的影响，预计美联储将在9月的议息会 议上再度降息。 国盛证券首席经济学家熊园认为，两者巨大的差异背后主要有两方面原因，一是，ADP就业调查只能覆 盖约17%的就业岗位，且样本中有79%是大中型企业；而非农就业调查可以覆盖80%左右的就业岗位。 二是，关税对大中型企业的影响更大，对小企业的影响要小很多，原因在于小企业通常很少参与国际贸 易。实际上，ADP与非农就业的背离幅度从3月之后开始加深，这也与关税升级的时间相一致。 美联储降息预期反复摇摆 近期美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼均表示支持7月降息后，市场对美联储降息时点提前至7月的押注 ...