在全球供应紧张与美联储降息预期推动下，白银价格史上首次突破57美元/盎司，同时中国白银库存降至715.875吨的七年新低。这一行情不仅反映10月 份中国创纪录出口660吨白银引发的供需失衡，更印证供应驱动型涨价正从贵金属向工业金属蔓延，成为大宗商品的普遍趋势。 在全球供应趋紧与货币政策宽松预期的双重推动下，白银正成为大宗商品市场的新焦点，其价格已飙升至历史新高。这一强劲势头不仅反映了贵金属市 场的普遍乐观情绪，也凸显了特定于白银的供需失衡问题。 12月1日周一，现货白银价格史上首次突破每盎司57美元，日内涨约1%。而纽约商品交易所的白银期货也触及每盎司57.81美元的新高。 价格的迅猛上 涨，直接源于市场对供应短缺的深度担忧，以及交易员对美国联邦储备委员会即将降息的普遍押注。 最新的动态显示，中国的白银库存已降至七年来的最低水平，这与10月份创纪录的出口量直接相关。分析师指出，这种大规模的库存消耗是由跨境关税 套利活动引发的，加剧了全球市场的供应紧张局面。 对于投资者而言，白银的突破性行情并非孤立事件。它既是美联储鸽派转向预期下，整个贵金属板块走强的缩影，也呼应了如铜等工业金属市场同样面 临的供应瓶颈。这一系 ...

Group 1: Silver Price Surge - Silver prices have reached a historic high, surpassing $57 per ounce, driven by supply constraints and expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [2] - The price increase of nearly 6% on the day reflects ongoing concerns about a tight global supply of silver, despite a record influx of 54 million ounces into London [2][3] - The one-month silver borrowing cost remains significantly elevated, indicating persistent supply tightness in the market [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Trade Risks - The U.S. Geological Survey has listed silver as a "critical mineral," which may lead to potential tariff discussions, adding a layer of trade risk to the silver market [3] - Since early October, 75 million ounces of silver have exited New York Comex warehouses, raising concerns about potential price spikes and causing traders to be cautious about shipping silver overseas [3] Group 3: Company Insights - China Silver Group (00815) reported a 20.97% decline in total revenue to 4.319 billion yuan and a 31.5% drop in net profit to 9.966 million yuan for 2024, indicating challenges in the silver production sector [4] - Zijin Mining (02899) has shown strong growth with a 5.55% increase in revenue to 78.928 billion yuan and a 62.39% rise in net profit to approximately 10.167 billion yuan, benefiting from rising prices of metals [4] - Jiangxi Copper (00358) maintains a stable silver production as a byproduct of copper and gold refining, with potential for additional revenue if silver prices continue to rise [4]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Aviation Industry - The A320 series aircraft are grounded globally due to solar radiation issues, affecting over half of the active fleet. In China, 24 airlines with 2,015 A320 aircraft are impacted. Domestic airlines are performing software downgrades, but insufficient external maintenance capabilities may lead to flight delays, though overall risk is manageable [1][4] - The supply-demand relationship in the aviation market is expected to improve, with ticket prices rebounding and high load factors maintained. Upstream maintenance and manufacturing capacity shortages are anticipated to become the norm, with peak maintenance periods expected in 2027-2028. Continued optimism for major Chinese airlines and low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines [1][5] - Recent issues on the China-Japan route have led to over 500,000 passenger ticket cancellations, with a reduction in flight frequency by approximately 5%. Load factors have dropped from nearly 90% to around 70%, impacting airlines like Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines more than the three major airlines [2] Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery sector is showing signs of reversing internal competition, with leading companies regaining market share. ZTO Express reported double-digit growth in shipment volumes for October and November. The industry is expected to continue this trend into 2026, with a positive outlook for leading firms like ZTO and YTO [1][6] Dry Bulk Shipping Market - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is nearing 2,500 points, reaching a two-year high, which boosts confidence in the dry bulk market. The industry anticipates a favorable market trend, with Haitong Development showing the most elasticity and Pacific Shipping being relatively stable, making them attractive for investors [1][7] Precious Metals Market - Silver prices are rising due to expectations of interest rate cuts and a decrease in inventory. The upcoming delivery month in December is expected to act as a catalyst for price increases. Silver price volatility is expected to increase, with potential for significant daily price jumps. Investors are advised to focus on companies like Shengda Resources and Xingye Silver [1][8] - Copper and gold are entering a favorable investment period, with increased financial attributes due to rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Anticipated stock movements for these metals are expected by the end of December to January, supported by the risk of a bubble burst in the U.S. stock market's AI narrative [1][9] Coal Industry - The coal market is currently weak, with a decline in demand for thermal coal, down 7% year-on-year, and an increase in supply leading to higher inventories. However, a potential drop in temperatures next week may boost short-term demand, suggesting a rebound in the coal sector. High-dividend coal companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry are recommended for their investment value [1][10][11]

新 3 社 主管主办 12月1日现货自银历史首次触及57美元/ 盎司 11月28日美股三大指数集体收涨 市场回顾 11月28日欧洲三大股指全线上涨 一周前瞻 美联储主席鲍威尔将发表讲话 美国9月个人消费支出报告将于周五公布 日本央行行长植田和男将于今日发表演讲 12月1日，日经225指数开盘小幅上涨，报50318.59点，随后走低，一度跌破50000点；韩国综合股价指数（KOSPI）开盘上涨1.05%，报3967.92点。 企业资讯 约6000架空客A320系列客机或因软件问 题紧急停飞 nbtain 【市场回顾】 市场焦点转向即将出炉的诸多经济数据。其中，"美联储最青睐的通胀指标"——美国9月个人消费支出（PCE）报告将于周五公布，预计9月整体PCE同比 涨幅将微升至2.8%，核心PCE价格指数同比涨幅预计将维持在2.9%不变。 近期，美联储降息预期升温，点燃贵金属行情。12月1日亚洲早盘，现货黄金在4220关口上方震荡；现货白银历史首次触及57美元/盎司，日内涨超1%； COMEX白银盘中突破58美元/盎司，日内涨1.47%。 当地时间11月28日，美股因感恩节假期提前3小时收盘，三大指数集体收涨。截至收 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced a strong rebound last week, recovering most of the losses from its historical high and maintaining a bullish outlook due to a favorable interest rate environment and diminishing bearish fundamentals [1][3]. Price Movement - Gold prices opened at $4067.47 per ounce, reached a weekly low of $4040.02, and then rebounded strongly, hitting a weekly high of $4226.59 before closing at $4217.40, resulting in a weekly fluctuation of $186.57 and a gain of $149.93, or 3.69% [1][3]. Influencing Factors - The Federal Reserve's internal discussions indicated a strong support for a rate cut in December, with the probability rising from 40% to over 80%, alongside geopolitical tensions and disappointing retail sales data, which further fueled expectations for a rate cut and supported gold prices [3][5]. - The potential announcement of a new Federal Reserve chair, who is expected to favor loose monetary policy, could also enhance market expectations for future rate cuts, benefiting gold prices [5]. Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators to watch this week include the U.S. November ADP employment figures and the September core PCE price index, with expectations that weaker data will bolster rate cut predictions and support gold prices [3][5]. Technical Analysis - On a weekly chart, gold prices have shown a strong rebound, supported by the 10-week moving average, with bullish momentum indicated by the upward extension of the Bollinger Bands [7]. - The daily chart shows that after consolidating at the middle Bollinger Band, gold prices have rebounded strongly, with multiple moving averages now acting as support, indicating a continued bullish outlook [9]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term trend for gold remains bullish, with expectations of a new bull market driven by low interest rates, economic uncertainty, and geopolitical risks, with a target of $5000 per ounce being considered feasible [5].

黄金高开后一度直线跳水。特朗普最新称他知道自己将选谁来担任下一任美联储主席。俄乌方面，也传 出大消息。 周一（12月1日）亚洲早盘，国际黄金高开后直线跳水，现货黄金一度转为下跌，随后拉升跌幅收窄。 美联储，大消息 消息面上，12月1日媒体报道称，美国总统特朗普称他知道自己将选谁来担任下一任美联储主席。 美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示，如果特朗普提名他担任美联储主席，他将乐于效劳。 而据悉，12月2日，美联储主席鲍威尔发表讲话。美联储理事鲍曼在众议院委员会做证词陈述。 有成效"，但还有很多工作要做，美国政府会在未来一周加强外交努力，威特科夫预计将前往俄首都莫 斯科进行进一步会谈。鲁比奥称，美国官员一直与俄罗斯方面保持着不同程度的接触。 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为87.4%，维持利率不变的概率为12.6%。美联 储到明年1月累计降息25个基点的概率为67.5%，维持利率不变的概率为9.2%，累计降息50个基点的概 率为23.2%。 俄乌，大消息 关于俄乌，也传来大消息。 据央视新闻当地时间11月30日消息，美国总统特朗普在"空军一号"上对媒体表示，他对美乌官员当天在 佛罗里达 ...

此次创历史新高，距离上个月伦敦主要交易中心出现严重供应挤压仅过去一个多月。当时伦敦库存紧缺 导致价格暴涨，甚至高于上海与纽约价格。尽管约5400万盎司白银近期流入伦敦市场帮助缓解了紧张， 供应仍然吃紧，1个月期白银借贷成本至今仍显著高于常态。 市场也在关注白银可能面临的新贸易风险。白银已于11月被美国地质调查局列入"关键矿物"名单，意味 着未来可能被纳入关税讨论范围。自10月初以来，纽约Comex仓库已有7500万盎司白银出库，但因担忧 美国白银可能出现突然溢价，不少交易商对将金属运往海外保持谨慎，进一步加剧了海外市场紧俏。 白银相关港股： 由于供应紧张以及对美国本月降息的预期升温，白银价格创下历史新高。 银价突破每盎司57美元，超过了上周五创下的前高 —— 银价当天飙升了近6%。 由于美国劳动力市场持续疲软，而且美联储官员发表了一系列鸽派言论，市场现在笃定美联储将在12月 降息25个基点。 全球市场供应紧张的担忧重燃，也支撑了银价。尽管创纪录数量的白银流入伦敦、缓解了历史性的供应 紧张局面，但1个月期白银借贷成本仍然居高不下。 其他交易中心也面临压力， 交易所数据显示，上海期货交易所相关仓库中的白银库存近期 ...

自上月白银交易发生严重供应挤压以来，市场仍然明显偏紧，一个月期的白银借贷成本远高于正常水平。作为金融与工业属性共同定价的品种，白银自2021 年来持续处于供不应求状态。 分析认为，由于市场对美联储在12月降息的预期升温、资金流入以实物白银为支撑的ETF，再加上供应持续紧张，使白银价格获得了强劲支撑。 芝商所"美联储观察"工具显示，市场预计该行12月会议上降息25个基点的概率为86.9%。一周前，这个概率还在40%左右。 有机构认为，在降息周期与美国关税政策的背景下，美国的通胀风险将更为突出，白银因其独特的双重属性，是表达"多通胀"预期的优质工具，比价优势显 著。 现货白银史上首次突破57美元/盎司，日内涨约1%。白银价格因供应趋紧和美联储降息预期而触及新高。中国白银库存降至七年新低，10月出口超660吨创 历史新高。 相关阅读 交易员还在关注白银可能面临的关税风险，因为美国地质调查局（USGS）本月早些时候将白银列入关键矿产名单。（智通财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - Spot silver prices have historically surpassed $57 per ounce, increasing by approximately 1% in a single day due to tightening supply and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Price Movement - Silver prices have reached a new high, breaking the $57 per ounce mark for the first time in history [1] - The daily increase in silver prices is around 1% [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Supply constraints are contributing to the rise in silver prices [1] - China's silver inventory has dropped to a seven-year low [1] Group 3: Export Performance - In October, silver exports from China exceeded 660 tons, setting a new historical record [1]

[ WTO警告称，美国关税政策可能对国际贸易体系造成"80年来前所未见的破坏"，预计明年全球货物贸 易量增速将从今年的2.4%降至0.5%。 ] 今年，我国金融市场顶住了高强度外部冲击，呈现"股汇双升"。其中，人民币对美元汇率（如非特指， 本文均指人民币对美元双边汇率）摆脱了2022年以来跌多涨少的下行行情。尤其是11月24~28日（均指 当地时间，下同）最后一周，境内外人民币交易价连续升破7.07~7.10比1。前11个月，境内中间价累计 升值1.55%，即期汇率（指境内银行间市场下午四点半成交价）升值3.10%，离岸人民币汇率（CNH） 升值3.76%。 随着人民币止跌反弹，市场对于明年的汇率走势普遍趋于乐观，重估之旅、破7之旅甚至新周期之说又 甚嚣尘上。其实，在"十五五"时期我国发展处于战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多的总 体判断下，与其去赌新周期还不如进一步适应双向波动新常态。 根据国际清算银行（BIS）编制的实际有效汇率（REER）指数，人民币REER自2022年3月起见顶回 落，到今年10月累计下跌17.3%。有人据此认为，人民币低估，需要升值。然而，同期日元REER也下 跌了16.1 ...