Group 1 - Gold prices increased by over 1% due to a decline in the dollar and falling U.S. yields, with trading prices reaching $3,338 [1] - The geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan have contributed to the high prices of gold bars, as the conflict escalates [2] - The dollar index fell by 0.32% to 100.31 after breaking the key level of 100.00, creating a favorable environment for gold [2] Group 2 - The recent rebound in gold prices has halted as they fell below $3,400, with the next key resistance level at $3,350 [3] - If gold closes below $3,300, it may further decline, potentially exposing the cycle low of $3,202 from May 1 [3]

Core Viewpoint - In May, the RMB appreciated against the USD, with onshore RMB rising by 1% and offshore RMB by 0.86% [1][3] Exchange Rate Performance - On May 30, the onshore RMB closed at 7.1989, down 0.18% for the day, while the offshore RMB closed at 7.2065, down 0.24% [3] - The RMB's middle rate against the USD on May 30 was reported at 7.1848, reflecting a 0.23% appreciation compared to the end of April [3] - Year-to-date, the middle rate has appreciated by 0.05%, with onshore and offshore RMB appreciating by 1.38% and 1.65% respectively [3] Factors Influencing RMB Appreciation - The appreciation in May was driven by two main factors: ongoing stable growth policies and positive outcomes from US-China trade talks, which boosted market confidence [3][4] - The weakening of the USD, with the index dropping for the fourth consecutive month to below 99, also contributed to the RMB's strength [4] Monetary Policy and Market Outlook - The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate for the third consecutive time, leading to increased market pessimism and a rise in US Treasury yields [4] - The widening of the interest rate differential between China and the US is expected to have limited impact on the RMB due to effective regulatory frameworks controlling cross-border capital flows [5] - The People's Bank of China is anticipated to continue implementing interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to support the economy and stabilize the RMB [5]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's latest report indicates that the US Dollar Index (DXY) is expected to undergo a significant adjustment due to the dual pressures of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a slowdown in global economic growth, predicting a decline of approximately 9% by mid-2026, reaching a low of 91 points, the lowest since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 [1][4]. Group 1: Key Drivers - The first key driver is the shift in Federal Reserve policy, which is anticipated to push real interest rates down. Morgan Stanley forecasts that the 10-year US Treasury yield will drop to 4.0% by the end of 2025, with the Federal Reserve expected to cut rates by a cumulative 175 basis points, leading to a more significant decline in the benchmark rate range by 2026, thereby diminishing the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [4]. - The second driver is the restructuring of global trade patterns, which is reshaping the currency landscape. Policies such as tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have not only impacted market confidence but have also prompted a reassessment of the dollar's status as a reserve currency. Current data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) indicates that bearish sentiment towards the dollar has not yet reached historical extremes, suggesting further potential weakness for the dollar [4]. Group 2: Currency Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley is optimistic about three non-USD currencies: the euro is expected to rise from the current exchange rate of 1.13 to 1.25, benefiting from the European Central Bank's cautious rate cuts and improved trade conditions due to falling energy prices; the Japanese yen, a traditional safe-haven asset, may appreciate from 143 yen to 130 yen, particularly as the uncertainty from Trump’s trade policies continues to support its value; and the British pound is projected to increase from 1.35 to 1.45, driven by a relatively mild trade environment in the UK and the interest rate advantage from the current 5.25% policy rate [4]. - Additionally, JPMorgan's strategist team has also issued a bearish signal for the dollar, advising investors to short the dollar and favor currencies such as the yen, euro, and Australian dollar. During the Asian trading session, the dollar index continued its downward trend, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falling by 0.2%, indicating potential for further selling pressure if key support levels are breached [5].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that the US Dollar Index will decline by approximately 9% from its current level by mid-next year, influenced by interest rate cuts and slowing economic growth [1] Group 1 - The forecast indicates a significant depreciation of the US Dollar Index, reflecting broader economic trends [1] - The prediction is based on the anticipated impact of interest rate cuts on the currency's value [1] - Slowing economic growth is identified as a contributing factor to the expected decline in the dollar's strength [1]

Group 1 - The US dollar strengthened against the euro, pound, and Swedish krona, while it weakened against the Swiss franc, yen, and Canadian dollar, with the dollar index rising by 0.05% to 99.328 [1] - The US international goods trade deficit for April was reported at $87.6 billion, significantly lower than the expected $143 billion and the revised $162.3 billion from March [1] - The US personal consumption expenditures price index increased by 0.1% month-on-month in April, matching market expectations, while the year-on-year increase was 2.1%, slightly below March's 2.3% [1] Group 2 - The German consumer price index for May rose by 0.1% month-on-month, below the expected 0.2% and April's 0.4%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [1] - The likelihood of the European Central Bank lowering interest rates increased due to inflation data being close to the 2% target [1] - The Bank of England's external member Alan Taylor suggested that the central bank should consider lowering interest rates due to economic growth risks from the US-China trade war [2] Group 3 - Japan's consumer price index for May increased by 3.4% year-on-year, with the core index rising by 3.6%, and industrial production for April grew by 0.7%, exceeding the expected 0.1% [2] - The probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates by the end of the year is now estimated at 67% following the latest data [2] - Canada's GDP for March rose by 0.1%, and the annualized growth rate for the first quarter was reported at 2.2%, surpassing the expected 1.6% [2]

Summary of Conference Call Minutes Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the global market impact of the "reciprocal tariff" policy Core Points and Arguments - The recent tariff reduction from 145% to 10% exceeded expectations, alleviating short-term market concerns, but medium to long-term risks related to trade restrictions need monitoring, particularly around key dates in July and August [1][2] - The U.S. effective tax rate has decreased to 16-17%, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [2] - The performance of U.S. stocks, particularly in the tech sector, has rebounded quickly, suggesting that previous recession fears may have been overstated [4] - The current market is characterized by limited upward momentum and constrained downside potential, indicating a state of indecision [2] - The liquidity shock is viewed as an occasional event that presents buying opportunities, with central bank interventions typically proving effective [4] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The recommendation to focus on sectors with strong end-demand and technology innovation, while also capitalizing on short-term trading opportunities in Hong Kong stocks [1] - The expectation that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate will decline to 3.5-4% by year-end, with the Federal Reserve potentially lowering rates 1-2 times in Q4 [4] - The suggestion to wait for U.S. Treasury yields to rise to 4.8-5% before making long positions, as the current yield of 4.5% is deemed unattractive [5][8] - The impact of tariff adjustments on China's market is projected to reduce GDP influence from 3% to 1-1.5%, with Hong Kong's earnings being less affected than A-shares [7][9] - Recommendations for gold investment strategies include dollar-cost averaging or grid trading, given the high levels of market congestion [6][9]

美元指数DXY短线走低15点，现报99.46。 ...

Group 1 - The international gold price opened at 3287.97 USD, reached a high of 3331.11 USD, and closed at 3317.19 USD, showing a daily increase of 30.85 USD or 0.94% [1] - The market sentiment improved after the U.S. International Trade Court ruled against Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff policy, leading to a temporary drop in gold prices to 3245 USD, but buying support remained strong due to geopolitical and economic uncertainties [3] - The U.S. GDP data revision is not expected to change the Federal Reserve's cautious stance, with expectations of interest rate cuts later this year [3] Group 2 - Gold prices are currently within the expected range of 3150-3450 USD, with a focus on maintaining around the 3300 USD level as the month ends [4] - Short-term fluctuations saw gold prices drop to 3245 USD after hitting a high of 3366 USD, but support was found at the 10-week moving average [4] - The overall judgment indicates that gold prices will oscillate around 3300 USD, with support at 3280-3290 USD and resistance near 3350 USD [4] Group 3 - Silver prices have broken out of a triangular consolidation pattern and are currently fluctuating within the Bollinger Bands, indicating cautious upward movement [6] - The silver price is supported at 32.6-32.8 USD and faces resistance at 33.6-33.8 USD, with a potential upward breakout expected [6] - Important levels for trading strategies include maintaining support at 32.6-32.8 USD for silver, while gold has support at 3300 USD and resistance at 3350 USD [6]

美元指数DXY短线走高15点，现报99.56。 ...

规格 报价 报价类型 交货地 交易商 品名:1#白银 ;牌号:IC-Ag99.99 ; 8157元/千克 市场价 上海 上海华通有色金属现货市场 品名:1#白银 ;牌号:IC-Ag99.99 ; 8190元/千克 市场价 上海 长江有色金属现货市场 品名:1#白银 ;牌号:IC-Ag99.99 ; 8187元/千克 市场价 上海 上海白银现货市场 品名:1#白银 ;牌号:IC-Ag99.99 ; 8207元/千克 市场价 上海 上海白银 数据显示，5月29日上海白银现货价格报价8187.00元/千克，相较于期货主力价格（8224.00元/千克）贴 水37.00元/千克。 （5月29日）全国白银价格一览表 5月29日，上期所沪银期货仓单录得1035919千克，较上一交易日增加29669千克；最近一周，沪银期货 仓单累计增加86722千克，增加幅度为9.14%；最近一个月，沪银期货仓单累计增加104595千克，增加 幅度为11.23%。 5月28日芝加哥商业交易所（CME）：白银期货成交量为45860手，较上个交易日减少21727手。未平仓 合约为148156手，较上个交易日增加601手。 分析观点： 宁证期货研 ...