富兰克林邓普顿投资解决方案副首席投资官Max Gokhman表示："当你设定如此低的门槛，如此多的公 司下调甚至撤回业绩指引，而最终的盈利却超出预期时，美国股市就会再次变得有吸引力。当科技股开 始公布业绩时，它们仍然是一股不容小觑的力量。" 智通财经APP获悉，最新的Markets Pulse调查显示，美国股市将摆脱关税风险，从第二季度财报季中获 得提振。这项于7月10日至17日进行的调查显示，在102名受访者中，近三分之二的人认为，随着未来几 周财报季进入高峰，美国股市的表现将优于美国国债，并带来更好的波动性调整后回报。受访者表示， 科技股有望在本财报季表现最强劲，并继续支撑股市的乐观前景。 多数受访者预计Q2财报季将提振美股 第二季度财报季刚刚开始，但标普500指数成分股的业绩指引已经好于分析师预期。财报发布前，华尔 街预测盈利增速仅为2.8%，为2023年年中以来的最低水平。受银行业绩稳健的影响，盈利增速预期已 略高于3%。 非必需消费品公司"压力山大" 尽管如此，七大科技巨头与标普500指数其他成分股之间仍然存在巨大差距。根据Bloomberg Intelligence 汇编的数据，科技巨头在人工智能 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The upward trend of domestic soybean meal is slowing down due to decreased import costs, and the short - term CBOT soybean futures are expected to fluctuate between 1020 - 1040 cents. The domestic continuous soybean meal M09 contract has strong upward momentum but may face short - term high - level callback risks. The domestic soybean meal supply is generally abundant, and the demand side lags behind. The domestic hog market is in a state of short - term supply increase and weak demand, showing an overall oscillatory trend [16][17][18] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The DCE soybean meal main 2509 contract rose 0.29% to 3095 yuan/ton, and the coastal mainstream regional oil mills' quotes increased by 10 - 60 yuan/ton. The DCE hog main 2509 contract rose 1.46% to 14590 yuan/ton, while the national average ex - factory price of ternary hogs decreased by 0.11 yuan/kg to 14.2 yuan/kg. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract decreased by 0.07% to 1026 cents/bushel [2] 2. Weather in Main Production Areas - The rainfall system in the US Midwest is active this week, and the temperature will rise. Most areas in the Midwest have good soil moisture, and corn and soybeans are entering the pollination period. However, some areas still need rainfall, and northern Indiana is a key area to focus on. The high - temperature weather this week may put pressure on areas with less rainfall [3][4] 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - Brazil's July soybean export forecast is 12.11 million tons, and the soybean import costs from the US, Brazil, and Argentina have decreased. On July 22, the domestic mainstream oil mills' soybean meal trading volume decreased, and the average trading price rose for four consecutive days. The US soybean futures prices are oscillating strongly, and the Brazilian soybean export premium quotes are slightly falling. The rapeseed meal continues to rise, and the spot basis weakens slightly. Argentina's June soybean crushing volume is 4.055149 million tons. As of July 20, the EU's 2025/26 soybean, palm oil, and soybean meal imports are lower than last year. The domestic soybean meal futures and spot prices are rising strongly, and the import soybean crushing profit has recovered [5][6][7] 4. Data Charts - The report provides charts related to the prices and basis of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and hogs, as well as the inventory of Chinese soybeans and soybean meal [10][13][15] 5. Analysis and Strategies - For soybean meal, the short - term CBOT soybean futures are expected to fluctuate between 1020 - 1040 cents. The domestic continuous soybean meal M09 contract has strong upward momentum but may face short - term high - level callback risks. The domestic soybean meal supply is generally abundant, and the demand side lags behind. For hogs, the short - term supply increases and the demand is weak, showing an overall oscillatory trend, and the short - term price changes with the rhythm of slaughter and second - fattening entry and exit [16][17][18]

虽然美银的结构性观点保持不变，但最新进展给美银的基准情景带来了上行风险（基准情景即有效关税将稳定在 10% 左右）。特别是可能会有更多针 对特定行业的关税出台。不确定性和关税冲击的持续时间在延长。即使有特朗普看跌期权，关税可能也不会完全回到中美协议中 5 月份的低点。 7月22日，美银发布研究报告指出，美国最新的关税公告可能使有效税率提高约 5 个百分点。根据过去 12 个月的进口构成，美银估计有效税率将升至 近 16%（图表 1）。 有效关税税率大约提高 5 个百分点，将使美国财政赤字降低约 50 个基点，对于仍高于 GDP 6% 的赤字来说不算多，并且会给通胀带来约 30 个基点的 上行风险，给增长带来下行风险。 但最新的关税公告远非板上钉钉。相反，截止日期从 7 月 9 日延长至 8 月 1 日表明还有谈判的空间。尽管如此，由于滞胀冲击可能延续到 2026 年，美 联储更有可能按兵不动，这与美银与众不同的观点一致，即今年美联储不会降息。 截至 5 月，美银对有效关税的估计与实际征收的关税非常接近，总体有效关税税率为 9.6%。 不过，美银发现了一些差异。5 月份对中国的关税征收超过了美银的估计，实际计算 ...

Market Outlook - Bank of America Merrill Lynch CIO's capital market outlook suggests fiscal stimulus offsetting tariff impacts [1] - The report views AI from a historical perspective, comparing it to the advent of calculators [1] - Fixed income opportunities are present before potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1]

隔夜，现货黄金价格强势突破3400美元关口，盘中最高触及3433.37美元，创下6月16日以来新高，收盘上涨1%至3431.59美元。今日亚市盘中，黄金窄幅 震荡，目前在3433美元附近徘徊。 美日达成贸易协议！ 隔夜，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数上涨0.40%，报收于44502.44点；纳斯达克指数下跌0.39%，报收于20892.69点；标普500 指数上涨0.06%，报收于6309.62点，再创新高。 消息面上，关税再度迎来重磅消息。 今年以来，特朗普多次批评鲍威尔并威胁解除其美联储主席职务，以此施压美联储降息。近期，特朗普政府又频繁提及美联储花费25亿美元翻修办公大楼 且"成本超支"一事，对鲍威尔"加码逼宫"。 当地时间7月22日，美国总统特朗普通过社交媒体宣布美国与日本达成贸易协议。原定25%的对等关税税率将下调至15%，日本将向美国投资5500亿美元 并放开大米等农产品市场。 对此，日本首相石破茂表示，将根据需要与特朗普进行会谈，已收到日本贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正的初步报告。但他拒绝置评有关谈判细节的问题。 日本分析人士认为，美国提出的高额关税对日本来说后果是"极其严峻"的。对外 ...

Group 1: AI Technology and Investment Opportunities - Morgan Stanley's report highlights the expanding impact of AI technology across over 3,600 global stocks, indicating significant alpha opportunities in relative returns and earnings revisions [1] - The report recommends focusing on four categories of stocks: those with increased AI importance and exposure, stocks where AI is a core investment logic, AI adopters with pricing power, and stocks with the highest AI importance and pricing power [1] Group 2: Global Data Center Growth - Global data center capacity is projected to grow by 23% annually by 2030, with the U.S. contributing 60% of this growth, while the UAE and Saudi Arabia are expected to expand their capacities by 6-7 times [1] - Major U.S. tech companies' AI capital expenditures are expected to see a compound annual growth rate of 19% from 2024 to 2029, driven by four major cloud service providers, although challenges such as energy supply and GPU availability remain [1] Group 3: AI Financing and Semiconductor Market - By 2028, global data center investments are expected to reach $2.9 trillion, with a financing gap of $1.5 trillion that will primarily be filled by the credit market, including $800 billion from private credit [2] - The easing of export restrictions on lower-end AI GPUs by the U.S. is expected to benefit companies like Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom in the Chinese market, with Nvidia's revenue in China projected to reach $25-35 billion by 2025 [2] Group 4: U.S. Economic and Taxation Outlook - The Inflation Reduction Act's tax provisions may significantly lower U.S. corporate cash tax rates, potentially bringing overall cash tax rates down to single digits due to immediate deductions [2] - Tariffs are impacting core commodity prices, with significant price increases observed in categories like appliances and furniture, leading to an expected rise in core PCE inflation by approximately 60 basis points by 2025 [2] Group 5: Currency Strategy and Chinese Economic Forecast - The U.S. dollar is expected to depreciate further, with potential increases in the euro/dollar exchange rate if hedging ratios return to historical averages [3] - China's GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been adjusted upward by 30 basis points to 4.8%, although a slowdown is anticipated in the second half of the year [3]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs economists predict that the U.S. basic tariff rate will increase from 10% to 15%, with a 50% tariff on copper and key minerals, potentially exacerbating inflation and pressuring economic growth [2] - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecasts for U.S. inflation and GDP growth to reflect the new tariff assumptions, indicating that tariffs will raise core inflation by 1.7% over 2-3 years [2] - The firm now forecasts a core inflation rate of 3.3% for 2025, down from a previous estimate of 3.4%, and anticipates GDP growth of 1% for 2025, impacted by tariffs [2] Group 2 - Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan setting tariffs on imported goods at 15%, including automobiles, which are a major component of the trade deficit [3] - A separate agreement with the Philippines sets a tariff rate of 19%, similar to that agreed with Indonesia, indicating a trend of lower tariffs in Southeast Asia compared to Vietnam's 20% benchmark [3] - Trump praised the trade agreements as significant victories, claiming the deal with Japan is potentially the largest trade agreement in history [4] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs expects the effective tariff rate in the U.S. to rise by 16 percentage points this year, indicating a slight upward risk to inflation and a slight downward risk to growth [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Shinichi Uchida, stated that trade agreements represent a significant step forward for the economy [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Economic prospects will always have both upward and downward risks [1] - The impact of tariffs on the economy remains uncertain [1] - The upcoming economic outlook report will reflect the implications of the trade agreement [1]

Stock Market & Financial Performance - Tesla's stock closed at $332.11, up 1.10% [2] - GM's Q2 2025 profits are projected to shrink by 35%, from $2.9 billion to $1.9 billion, due to 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and parts [2] - Tariffs are expected to cost GM $4 billion to $5 billion annually [2] - Stellantis reported a $2.7 billion loss in the first half of the year due to tariffs [2] Impact of Tariffs - GM faces significant losses due to tariffs on imported parts, while Tesla is less affected because its cars sold in the US are manufactured domestically [2] - Tesla still imports 20-30% of its parts, leading to increased costs [2] - Goldman Sachs reports that import car prices may increase by $5,000 to $15,000 due to tariffs [2] Tesla's Q2 2025 Earnings Call Key Investor Concerns - Robotaxi performance and expansion plans, including regulatory hurdles and consumer acceptance [2] - Technical and regulatory obstacles for unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) [2] - Optimus current tasks and production timeline, aiming for thousands of robots in factories by the end of 2025 and external sales starting in 2026 [2] - Plans for cheaper Tesla models based on existing platforms to stimulate demand, especially in markets like India [2][3] - Timing of unsupervised FSD availability for customer vehicles and potential hardware upgrades for HW3 owners [2] Tesla Production and Sales - In Spain, the Model 3 RWD is available for €25,000 with government subsidies and Tesla incentives [3] - Honda and Acura EV owners can now use Tesla's Supercharger network with an adapter [3] - Lucid Motors Air models will also be able to use the Tesla Supercharger network with a dedicated adapter from July 31, achieving up to 50 kW charging speeds [3]

Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the U.S. debt market, with a focus on the recent fluctuations in bond yields, particularly the 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year Treasury yields [4] - It also discusses the impact of geopolitical events, such as tariff negotiations involving the Philippines and the EU's potential countermeasures against the U.S. [4] - The report notes the performance of major stock indices, including the Nasdaq and Dow Jones, indicating a mixed market sentiment [5] Economic Data - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 2016.00, down by 1.75% [5] - The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 20892.69, down by 0.39%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 44502.44, up by 0.40% [5] - The ICE Brent crude oil price was reported at 68.67, down by 0.78%, and the London gold spot price was at 3431.20, up by 1.02% [5] - The U.S. dollar index was at 97.36, down by 0.49%, and the exchange rate for USD to RMB was 7.18, down by 0.02% [5] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25130.03, up by 0.54%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index was at 9075.60, up by 0.39% [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3581.86, up by 0.62%, and the Shenzhen Composite Index was at 2188.95, up by 0.58% [5] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4118.96, up by 0.82%, and the ChiNext Index was at 2310.86, up by 0.61% [5]