随着4月2日美国实施对等关税的临近，全球金融市场避险情绪越发高涨。3月31日周一，市场上黄金闪耀、日元狂舞、美债收益率下滑三大信号同时闪现，市 场已对潜在风险拉响最高级别警报。 3月31日，纽约期货交易所（COMEX）黄金期货价格，盘中一度刷新历史高点至3162美元/盎司，再创历史纪录新高。伦敦现货黄金盘中一度至3128美元/盎 司，今年以来，全球现货黄金的累计涨幅已经超过18%，大幅跑赢全球股市主要股指，是表现最好的资产之一。 国内黄金期货主力合约盘中最高达到732.10元/克，现货黄金T+D以最高价收盘达到730.60元/克。值得注意的是，在商品期货市场上，黄金成为市场为数不多 的资金净流入板块。3月31日，黄金期货市场有超过11亿元资金流入，而有色板块则出现资金净流出，其中沪铜成资金撤离重灾区，沉淀资金流出逾9亿元， 铜价的下跌也导致铜业个股大幅跳水，北方铜业、铜陵有色、云南铜业跌幅靠前。 美国全面对等征税正在引发市场资金涌入黄金市场避险。 3月31日，全球金融市场上演经典避险行情，大量资金涌入黄金、日元、美债等传统避险板块。纽约黄金期货价格最高达到3162美元/盎司，刷新历史高点； 美元兑日元跌至14 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the impact of Trump's announcement regarding tariffs on global markets, leading to significant declines in stock and cryptocurrency prices, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum [1][2][3] - The fear and uncertainty in the market are primarily driven by the potential for repeated adjustments to tariffs, which could exacerbate perceived risks [2][3] - Major cryptocurrency holders, referred to as "whales," are facing significant liquidation risks due to recent price drops, with specific addresses holding large amounts of ETH nearing their liquidation prices [3][4] Group 2 - The current market sentiment indicates a strong inclination towards risk aversion, with many investors opting to exit positions ahead of the tariff announcements [2][8] - There is a notable disparity in short positions between Bitcoin and Ethereum, with more investors shorting Bitcoin, suggesting a complex market dynamic [4][9] - The articles suggest that the market is in a unique state, with historical patterns not necessarily applicable to the current situation, emphasizing the importance of strategic positioning and risk management [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rising global risk aversion leading to a continuous increase in gold prices, with significant geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainties driving this trend [1][3][8]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of March 31, the spot gold price reached a record high of $3120 per ounce, marking an increase of 1.1% on that day, while COMEX gold futures surpassed $3140 per ounce, also setting a new historical peak [3]. - Year-to-date, both spot gold and COMEX gold futures have seen an increase of over 18%, significantly outperforming major global stock indices [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - Recent statements from U.S. President Trump regarding threats to Russia and Iran have intensified market risk aversion, contributing to the surge in gold prices [3][4]. - Trump's comments included potential secondary tariffs on Russian oil and military threats against Iran, which have heightened geopolitical tensions [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The core PCE inflation rate for February rose by 2.8% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding expectations, which has led to increased concerns about inflation and potential stagflation [4]. - Anticipation of upcoming tariffs and economic reports has caused global stock markets to decline, with fund managers reducing portfolio risks in response to the uncertain economic outlook [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts expect that the combination of rising inflation and geopolitical tensions will maintain upward pressure on gold prices in the medium to long term [4][8]. - The potential for retaliatory measures from U.S. trade partners could further exacerbate market volatility, reinforcing the demand for safe-haven assets like gold [8].

由于对关税、贸易和地缘政治不确定性的担忧加剧，避险需求仍在继续，推动黄金价格持续创新高。上 周五，现货黄金涨0.88%，报3084.25美元/盎司；COMEX黄金期货6月合约涨0.59%，报3116.6美元，周 累涨2.26%；均继续创历史新高。 今日（2025年3月31日），现货黄金高开，盘中继续走高，将历史新高刷新至3109美元/盎司。黄金ETF 基金（159937）今日高开高走，盘中涨超1%，价格最高报7.030元，再创历史新高，成交额已超2亿 元，盘中交易溢价。该ETF年内涨幅超17%，资金净流入额超18亿元，最新规模超194亿元。 消息面上，特朗普关税政策进一步加码。3月26日，特朗普签署行政令对汽车和关键零部件进口额外征 收25%关税，自加墨进口的汽车仅对非美国成分加征，自加墨进口的关键零部件暂缓征收。欧盟和加拿 大均暗示将报复汽车关税。 此外，特朗普周日（3月31日）在空军一号上作出震撼性表态，宣布即将于4月2日"解放日"公布的对等 关税政策将覆盖所有贸易伙伴国，彻底打破此前仅针对10-15个贸易逆差大国的预期。这一政策转向标 志着美国贸易保护主义进入全新阶段，可能引发全球贸易体系的地震式重构。 ...

投资者对特朗普即将宣布的新一轮关税政策感到担忧，全球市场因避险情绪而扰动。 日本、韩国和澳大利亚股指均告下跌，标普500期货也出现下滑。与此同时，澳元和纽元小幅走低，避险需求刺激黄金价格创下新高，日元升值趋 势明显，10年期美债收益率跌至4.20%。 上周五公布的美国消费者信心大幅下滑、支出疲软以及价格回升的数据推动美股下跌。考虑到本周是季度末，特朗普还将于周三公布所谓的"对 等关税"，市场波动可能进一步加剧。 黄金本周以创纪录新高开始交易，在特朗普即将宣布的最新关税攻势引发全球贸易战担忧之际，金价一度突破3,093美元/盎司，超过上周五创下 的历史最高纪录，这也是黄金连续第四周上涨。截至发稿回落至3083.99美元/盎司。 交易中，2025-03-31 08:43:16 (北京时间) 概览 图表 黄金今年已上涨约17%，这轮涨势受到央行购买和避险需求的推动，因为地缘政治和宏观不确定性上升。即使掉期交易员已减少对美联储今年降 息的押注至两次25个基点的降息，这些驱动因素仍然支撑着金价。 中信证券研报称，近期黄金价格再创新高，主要是海外市场衰退交易与关税恐慌交易所致。综合通胀、增长、关税、地缘等多个因素来看，当 ...

避险情绪推动黄金价格再创新高，有媒体报道称，特朗普政府考虑实施更广泛、更高的关税计划。 周一亚市早盘，随着特朗普政府即将推出新一轮关税政策，黄金高开，每盎司价格突破3093美元，超过上周五创下的历史高点。 具体执行方式仍未最终确定。据报道，特朗普顾问团队近期考虑了一项高达20%的全球性关税，几乎覆盖全部美国贸易伙伴。这一方案与特朗普竞选期间鼓 吹数月的政策一致，尽管此后特朗普曾公开转向支持所谓"对等关税"，即"他们收我们多少，我们就收他们多少"。 一位政府官员表示，"对等关税"方案仍在考虑之中，并透露总统倾向对所有与美贸易逆差国家征税，希望每个国家都有一个"简单明了的数字"。该官员强 调，无论最终方案如何，总统要求政策必须"大而简单"。 黄金今年已上涨约17%，至少创下15次历史新高。尽管市场已经降低了对美联储今年降息的预期至两次25个基点，但央行购买和地缘政治与宏观经济不确定 性上升的避险需求仍支撑着金价。 尽管特朗普多次淡化4月2日所谓"对等关税"计划的力度，但据媒体最新报道，近日特朗普已转向更为强硬立场，督促团队设计覆盖面更广、税率更高的方 案。其中一项选择是高达20%的全球性关税，几乎覆盖全部美国贸易 ...

Group 1: Market Reactions to Tariff Policies - The recent announcement of a 25% tariff on imported cars by President Trump has intensified market volatility, leading to a significant drop in U.S. and Asia-Pacific stock markets [2][3] - The tariff policy has resulted in a surge in safe-haven assets, with gold prices reaching historical highs, surpassing $3100 per ounce, and a notable increase in copper prices [2][5] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. policies and ongoing tariff measures has heightened risk aversion among investors, prompting a shift of funds into gold [3][5] Group 2: Impact on Inflation and Economic Indicators - Goldman Sachs estimates that the implementation of tariffs will increase the effective tariff rate by a total of 2.2 percentage points, which is expected to raise core inflation by approximately 0.2 percentage points [4] - The automotive sector is a primary target for tariffs, with only about 50% of the 16 million light vehicles sold in the U.S. in 2024 expected to be assembled domestically [3][4] Group 3: Commodity Price Movements - Copper prices have reached a year-to-date high of $5.22 per ounce, reflecting a cumulative increase of 28% this year, driven by concerns over potential import tariffs and supply shortages [6][7] - A "copper hoarding" trend is emerging, with expectations that the U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on copper imports, which could lead to a significant increase in U.S. copper net imports by 50% to 100% in the coming months [7][8] Group 4: Gold Market Dynamics - The demand for physical gold has surged, with U.S. gold imports in January valued at $30 billion, double the amount during the pandemic, indicating a strong shift in market dynamics [8] - The movement of gold from London to New York is indicative of market panic, as traders anticipate potential tariffs on gold and other metals, leading to a temporary shortage in the London market [8]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to face downward pressure due to various influencing factors, including the performance of overseas markets and geopolitical uncertainties [3][6]. Market Performance - The FTSE China A50 index futures closed lower, indicating a negative sentiment for the upcoming A-share market [3]. - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index, which tracks Chinese stocks listed in the U.S., fell by 3.11%, contributing to a pessimistic outlook for A-shares [3]. - U.S. stock markets also experienced significant declines, with the Nasdaq dropping by 2.7%, which may trigger a global market reaction and increase risk aversion [3]. Influencing Factors - Trump's firm stance on tariffs, particularly regarding the automotive sector, introduces new uncertainties that could negatively impact the A-share market [6]. - A significant decrease in trading volume on the A-share market, which fell to 1.12 trillion yuan, suggests a lack of buying momentum that could hinder market performance [6]. Market Predictions - There are mixed opinions regarding the A-share market's performance, with some analysts predicting a potential decline while others foresee a rebound, possibly reaching a peak around the 8th of the month [6]. - Regardless of the predictions, it is emphasized that investors should remain calm and rational, developing strategies based on their risk tolerance and investment goals [6].

黄金上周自3057高点回落至3000附近，跌幅达57美元。昨日金价震荡下行，日线收阴，触及短期均线。从技术调整角度看，金价修正尚未完成，存在进一步 下跌可能，3000关口面临破位风险。黄金已连续三日回调，相较于前期连阳上涨行情显得异常。通常在连阳行情中出现的阴线，那么翁富豪认为，若欧盘时 段抗跌，美盘前可尝试空单，以早间高点为分水岭设置止损。目前日线节奏已遭破坏，今日能否探底回升尚需观察。 当前金价陷入震荡，多头延续性不足。昨日日内震荡上行，但晚间十点后转跌，凌晨收于低位，整体呈现震荡格局。今日早间金价探底回升，突破凌晨高点 3014，但不建议盲目追高，需重点关注欧盘表现。若欧盘上涨，晚间或维持震荡，上方压力位在3035-3038区间，触及可考虑空单介入。若欧盘下跌，跌破 3007，则今日可能延续空头趋势，3000关口或将失守，需警惕重复昨日走势。因此翁富豪认为，需密切关注欧盘节奏，若震荡上行，晚间仍可择机高空。 翁富豪：黄金技术面承压，3000关口面临考验 1.黄金3025-30附近空，止损6个点，空间10-30点； 亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，今年美联储可能仅降息一次，而非此前预期的两次，关税上调对通胀 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the production disruption in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has led to an increase in global prices for copper, cobalt, and tin. The DRC government announced a four-month suspension of cobalt exports, and mining operations in the Bisie tin mine were halted due to conflict, significantly impacting metal prices [2] - The report notes that the aluminum price is supported by seasonal demand and ongoing inventory depletion, with the current profit margin for the electrolytic aluminum industry around 2800 RMB/ton [3] - Gold prices have surged above 3000 USD/oz due to inflation concerns and uncertainties surrounding tariffs, with expectations of three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 [3] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Performance Review - The non-ferrous metal sector rose by 3.56%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.17 percentage points [17] 2. Industrial Metal Fundamentals Tracking (a) Aluminum - Aluminum prices are supported by seasonal demand and inventory depletion, with a stable production environment and a profit margin of 2800 RMB/ton [3][25] (b) Copper - Copper prices continue to rise, driven by stable demand and tight supply conditions, with domestic copper inventories decreasing [3][39] (c) Tin - Tin prices have surged due to the suspension of operations at the Bisie mine in the DRC, which has been affected by conflict [2][21] 3. Precious Metal Fundamentals Tracking (a) Gold - Gold prices have reached 3000 USD/oz, influenced by inflation data and tariff uncertainties, with expectations of continued support from central bank purchases [3][40] 4. Energy Metals and Rare Earths Fundamentals Tracking (a) Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate has slightly decreased, with production expected to decline due to cost pressures [5][12] 5. Industry Weekly Dynamics - The report indicates that the overall market dynamics are influenced by geopolitical factors, particularly in the DRC, which is a significant contributor to global metal supply [2][3]