近期原油市场面临多重因素交织影响。美国就业数据表现疲软，为市场带来降息预期升温的利好因素。与此同时，库存数据的意外变化正在重塑市场对供需 平衡的认知。 市场焦点正逐步转向即将公布的非农就业数据。此前ADP私人就业数据出现意外下降，录得近年来较大降幅。这一变化引发市场对劳动力市场健康状况的重 新评估，同时强化了美联储可能加快降息步伐的预期。 就业市场的疲软表现为原油需求前景带来不确定性。续领失业金人数升至数月来高位，显示就业市场降温趋势正在延续。房屋建筑许可与开工数据同样表现 低迷，反映出高利率环境对经济活动的抑制作用持续显现。 美联储政策取向的潜在变化将对原油价格产生重要影响。降息预期的升温通常有利于大宗商品价格表现，但当前就业数据的疲软也暗示经济增长动能可能面 临挑战。这种双重影响使得原油价格走势更加复杂化。 原油期货价格目前在关键技术位附近震荡整理。短期内，市场将密切关注非农数据的具体表现，以判断美联储政策调整的时机与幅度。库存数据的意外增长 已经为多头情绪带来冲击，后续价格走势将更多依赖于宏观经济数据的指引作用。 美国能源信息署最新公布的库存数据显示意外增长态势。截至最近统计周期，商业原油库存环比增加幅 ...

Group 1 - The ADP non-farm data showed a surprising decline, recording a negative growth of 33,000 jobs in June, which was below the expected increase of 98,000, marking the first negative growth since March 2023. This has heightened concerns about the weakening labor market [2] - The market is anticipating a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with expectations rising to a reduction of approximately 66 basis points by the end of the year, up from 63 basis points previously [2] - The overall sentiment in the market is leaning towards a bullish outlook for precious metals, as inflation and economic slowdown are expected to persist, making it likely for gold and silver prices to continue rising [1][2] Group 2 - Asset management firm abrdn suggests that the current global debt levels justify a new normal for gold prices above $3,000, as the U.S. debt has surpassed $37 trillion and European spending has increased [3] - Sprott's senior partner indicates that rising government debt is creating sovereign risks for the global economy, leading investors to seek hard assets like gold and silver. There is an expectation that gold prices will continue to rise, potentially stabilizing around $3,300 per ounce during the summer [4]

涨跌都能赚 盈利就能离场！点击开通期货"T+0、双向交易"特权！>>> "反内卷"成为市场热点，商品大幅拉升；多晶硅大涨4%，价格创近一个月新高，焦煤大涨3%，焦炭、 玻璃、碳酸锂、铁矿石、原油等涨幅超1%。跌幅方面，红枣、20号胶、欧线集运表现较弱，跌幅超 1%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨幅(结)1 | | --- | --- | --- | | 多昌硅2508 | 35715 | +4.08% | | 焦煤2509 | 850.5 | +3.09% | | 佳炭2509 | 1443.0 | +1.87% | | 玻璃2509 | 1040 | +1.66% | | 原油2508 | 505.3 | +1.36% | | 铁矿石2509 | 725.0 | +1.33% | | 碳酸锂2509 | 64340 | +1.32% | | 棕櫚油2509 | 8470 | +1.12% | | 氧化铝2509 | 3031 | +1.10% | | 菜油2509 | 9628 | +0.89% | | 螺纹钢2510 | 3059 | +0.89% | | 魅油2509 | 2982 | +0.88% | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. Since late April, London gold has been in a range - bound oscillation, but the short - term trend has strengthened. The support level for London gold is 3330, with a key support at 3300, and resistance levels at 3365 and then 3400. The support for London silver has moved up to 36.2, and the resistance is in the range of 36.6 - 36.8. The operation strategy is to buy on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Wednesday, the precious metals market was generally strong. Peripheral assets such as US stocks, US bonds, the US dollar index, Bitcoin, crude oil, and the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index all performed well. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3368.7 per ounce, up 0.56%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $36.79 per ounce, up 1.08%. SHFE gold 2508 main contract closed at 776.04 yuan per gram, up 0.7%; SHFE silver 2508 contract closed at 8747 yuan per kilogram, up 0.09%. Trump's "Great Beautiful" bill was blocked in the House of Representatives, and the infighting within the Republican Party escalated. The US "small non - farm" ADP employment data released on Wednesday evening was unexpectedly poor, with a decrease of 33,000, turning negative for the first time in more than three years, slightly increasing the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut this year [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 25.3%. In September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 7.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 69.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 22.8%. In October, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 2.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 29.8%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 52.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point rate cut is 14.6%. The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings decreased by 0.57 tons to 947.66 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF's holdings increased by 42.4 tons to 14896.01 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 0.1 tons to 1338.8 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 34.6 tons to 1323.2 tons in the week ending June 27 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week, the main data to focus on is the US non - farm payrolls report on Thursday night. In terms of events, attention should be paid to the progress of the US House of Representatives' vote on Trump's "Great Beautiful" bill. Also, due to the US Independence Day holiday on Friday, COMEX precious metals trading will end early at 01:00 Beijing time on the 5th [4]. 3.4 Price and Inventory Tables - **Precious Metal Futures and Spot Prices**: SHFE gold main - continuous contract was at 776.04 yuan per gram, down 0.01%; SGX gold TD was at 770.33 yuan per gram, down 0.22%; CME gold main contract was at $3368.7 per ounce, up 0.56%. SHFE silver main - continuous contract was at 8747 yuan per kilogram, down 0.72%; SGX silver TD was at 8737 yuan per kilogram, down 0.77%; CME silver main contract was at $36.79 per ounce, up 1.5%. SHFE - TD gold was at 5.71 yuan per gram, up 40.64%; SHFE - TD silver was at 10 yuan per kilogram, down 85.29%; CME gold - silver ratio was 91.5656, down 0.93% [7]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: SHFE gold inventory was 18,456 kilograms, up 0.02%; CME gold inventory was 1152.3287 tons, unchanged; SHFE gold holdings were 168,596 lots, up 0.68%; SPDR gold holdings were 947.66 tons, down 0.06%. SHFE silver inventory was 1338.659 tons, down 0.01%; CME silver inventory was 15,557.4558 tons, down 0.2%; SGX silver inventory was 1323.225 tons, down 2.55%; SHFE silver holdings were 249,023 lots, down 5.93%; SLV silver holdings were 14,869.009712 tons, up 0.29% [17][18]. 3.5 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - The US dollar index was 96.7751, up 0.12%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.1634, down 0.01%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was 44,484.42 points, down 0.02%. WTI crude oil spot was at $67.45 per barrel, up 3.06%. LmeS copper 03 was at $10,010 per ton, up 0.67%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.3%, up 0.94%; the 10 - year US real interest rate was 2%, up 1.52%; the 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread was 0.52%, up 8.33% [23].

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250703 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：美元指数止步九连跌，国内市场响应"反内卷"政策 海外方面，特朗普宣布与越南达成贸易协议，越南市场将全面向美开放，并同意对输美 商品征收 20%关税、对转运货物征收 40%关税，突显美国打击转口贸易的意图。美国 6 月 "小非农"录得-3.3 万人，创 2023 年 3 月以来最大降幅，近期就业数据冷暖不一，关注今 日晚间非农就业数据。目前市场几乎定价美联储将在 9 月前降息，美元指数震荡上涨、结束 9 连跌，美股再创新高，黄金、原油与铜价齐涨。 国内方面，市场对"反内卷、出清落后产能"政策反映积极，长期产能过剩的内需品种 （新能源、黑色、生猪）迎来显著反弹，相较于 2015 年以去产能为核心、聚焦上游行业的 供给侧改革，本轮"反内卷"政策更倾向于调整中下游产业结构，着力缓解部分中下游行业 的过度竞争与无效内卷，以缓解物价低迷的困局。目前处于"反内卷"叙事的初期，从预期 走向落地，预期到现实仍需 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. ADP employment report for June showed an unexpected decrease of 33,000 jobs, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, against an expectation of an increase of 98,000 jobs [1] - The service sector experienced a significant decline, losing 66,000 jobs in June, the largest drop since the pandemic began, indicating a bleak employment outlook in the U.S. [1] - Following the ADP report, the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in July increased, with FedWatch showing a rise from 20% to approximately 23% for a rate cut, and the federal funds futures indicating a jump to 27.4% [1] Group 2 - Recent comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggested that inflation and employment conditions may lead to an earlier rate cut, contributing to rising market expectations for such a move [2] - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, supported by Trump, passed a procedural vote in the Senate, potentially increasing U.S. debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade, which may heighten concerns over fiscal deficits and benefit gold prices [2] Group 3 - The gold ETF (518800) closely tracks gold price movements and offers T+0 trading, making it a more convenient and liquid option compared to physical gold investments [3] - Investors are encouraged to consider gradual investments in gold ETFs during price corrections, as the current market shows high volatility in gold prices [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Short - term copper prices are strong. The core drivers are the ongoing "232" investigation in the US and the unresolved LME warehouse receipt issue, which provide strong support for copper prices. Before the "232" investigation is finalized, the tight supply situation in non - US regions is difficult to reverse, and the main contract is expected to trade between 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to be weak in the short - term, with the main contract trading in the range of 2,750 - 3,150 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels in the short - term, with the main contract trading between 20,000 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to be weak and fluctuate, with the main contract trading between 19,200 - 20,000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Short - term zinc prices have rebounded due to higher interest rate cut expectations and a weak US dollar. However, the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and a short - on - rallies strategy is recommended in the medium - to - long - term, with the main contract trading between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The macro - sentiment provides support, but the nickel fundamentals have not changed much. The cost support for refined nickel has weakened, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. The price upside is limited. The short - term price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract trading between 116,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term under macro - support, with the main contract trading between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy trends and steel - mill production cut rhythms [12]. Tin - In the short - term, tin prices are expected to be strong and fluctuate. However, considering the pessimistic demand outlook, a short - on - rallies strategy based on inventory and import data is recommended [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate still face pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the performance around 65,000 yuan/ton and changes in macro - expectations [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose 0.98% to 80,990 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 120 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread increased by 11.18% to 2,403 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a decrease of 0.30%. In May, the import volume was 253,100 tons, an increase of 1.23%. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 12.44% week - on - week [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum rose 0.14% to 20,810 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, a decrease of 0.19%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, a decrease of 3.22%. The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.86% week - on - week [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,100 yuan/ton. The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 85 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 100% to 0 tons. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.38% to 26,100 tons. The import volume of unforged aluminum alloy ingots increased by 11.75% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot rose 0.04% to 22,290 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 262.82 yuan/ton to - 911 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, refined zinc production was 585,100 tons, an increase of 6.50%. The social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots in seven regions increased by 3.60% week - on - week [8]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose 0.49% to 122,050 yuan/ton. The premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 3.85% to 2,500 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, Chinese refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a decrease of 10.04%. The import volume was 19,157 tons, an increase of 116.90%. The SHFE inventory decreased by 1.51% week - on - week [10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) rose 0.40% to 12,700 yuan/ton. The spot - futures spread decreased by 23.08% to 200 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) was 1.7912 million tons, an increase of 0.36%. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan decreased by 0.28% week - on - week [12]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin rose 0.75% to 268,500 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 17.60% to - 13,401.25 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, tin ore imports were 13,449 tons, an increase of 36.39%. SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 2.37% [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate rose 0.57% to 61,650 yuan/ton. The 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 160 yuan/ton to 140 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, an increase of 8.34%. The demand was 918,866 tons, a decrease of 0.15%. The total inventory increased by 2.27% month - on - month [17].

美东时间7月2日，美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.02%； 标普500指数涨0.47%，创历史新高； 纳指涨0.94%，创收盘历史新高 。 当地时间7月2日，美国公布6月ADP报告（由美国自动数据处理公司发布的就业数据报告，通常被视为 非农就业数据的先行指标，被称为"小非农"）。私营部门就业人数6月减少3.3万人，创2023年3月以来 最大降幅，而预估为增加9.8万人。 | 新版 成分 | 资讯 | 相关基金 | | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ◆ | | 特斯拉(TESLA) | 315.650 | 4.97% | | TSLA.O | | | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 157.250 | 2.58% | | NVDA.O | | | | 苹果(APPLE) | 212.440 | 2.22% | | AAPL.O | | | | 谷歌(ALPHABET)· | 179.760 | 1.61% | | GOOG.O | | | | 微软(MICROSOFT | 491.090 | -0.20% | | MSFT.O | | | | 亚马逊(AMAZON) | ...

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首席点评： 纵深推进全国统一大市场建设 铜： 夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。根据国家统计局数据来 看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持 续疲弱。多空因素交织，铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因素 变化。 美国 6 月 ADP 就业人数意外减少 3.3 万人，自 2023 年 3 月以来首次负增长，预期为增长 9.8 万人， 5 月份数据在向下修正后仅增加 2.9 万人。服务业就业在 6 月份减少 6.6 万个就业岗位，遭遇自疫情以来 的最大降幅。美国利率期货完全消化美联储 9 月降息预期。证监会党委召开扩大会议强调，要持续优化 股债融资、并购重组等资本市场机制安排，促进要素向最有潜力的领域高效集聚。牢记我国资本市场中 小投资者众多的最大市情，不断完善投资者保护制度体系。深入推进以"两创板"改革为抓手的新一轮全 面深化资本市场改革。全力抓好资本市场自主开放重点举措落地。始终把维护市场稳定作为监管工作首 要任务，推动健全常态化稳市机制安排，平稳有序防控债券违约、私募基金等领域风险。央行近日发文 明 ...