今晚的美股开盘，备受全球瞩目——毫不夸张地说，这将是今年最漫长的一夜。在周四美股休市后，市 场失去了主心骨，全球资产普遍进入观望状态。更微妙的是，交易员已清晰意识到：美联储降息预期已 被推至极致，继续加码已变得危险，因此不敢贸然押注——等待美股给出新的定价信号。然而，在周五 美股开盘前，华尔街最大的交易所之一芝商所（CME）数据中心的冷却系统出了问题，导致全球期货 交易系统停摆，进一步加剧了市场的不确定性。 市场失去主心骨 全球资产进入观望状态 今晚的美股开盘将是一个充满不确定性的关键时刻。CME数据中心的故障引发了全球期货市场的停 摆，使得市场失去了重要的定价信号。在全球投资者的密切关注下，今晚的美股收盘将对未来的市场走 势产生重要影响。 来源：热点快报 在周五美股开盘前，发生了一件让交易员们震惊的事情——芝商所（CME）数据中心的冷却系统出现 了故障，导致全球期货交易系统停摆。CME是全球最大的期货交易所之一，其数据中心的故障直接影 响了全球期货市场的正常运作。CME不仅是市场情绪的风向标，还是全球期货的重要定价中心，涵盖 了股指、外汇、国债、原油、黄金、玉米、豆粕等多个品种的流动性枢纽。 CME的停摆不 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, PX and PTA have limited supply pressure, polyester demand remains stable, and the futures market has support at the bottom. However, the continuous weakening of the terminal restricts the rebound momentum, and the market is in a range - bound pattern. The price of ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate at a low level due to insufficient demand. In the medium - to - long - term, the demand drive is insufficient, and supply changes dominate the market rhythm. The polyester sector shows a differentiated trend in the fourth quarter, with PX and PTA being relatively strong and ethylene glycol having limited upward potential [33]. - For methanol, in the short - term, although the shutdown of Iranian plants and tight supply in the inland region boost the market, the high - supply and high - operation situation will continue, and the demand support is insufficient, so the upward space of the futures market is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the import is expected to decrease from mid - December to next year, but the demand increase is still weak, and the market may fluctuate widely. - For plastics, in the short - term, the social inventory continues to decline, but the supply remains high, and the demand support is weak. The market may continue to fluctuate in a low - level range. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure may not decrease, and the overall demand is expected to weaken significantly, so the plastic market may continue to be weak [61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Crude Oil Important News - Geopolitical news: Ukrainian President Zelensky plans to continue implementing the Geneva Conference results with the US. Russian President Putin said that the US delegation will visit Moscow next week, but Russia will not make concessions on key issues, and negotiating with the current Ukrainian leadership is meaningless at this stage. OPEC+ is expected to maintain the current crude oil production policy and may establish a new mechanism to assess member countries' production capacity [5]. - Crude oil supply and demand: Russian seaborne crude oil imports decreased by 23% in the week ending November 25. US sanctions on Russian oil companies have led to a reduction in purchases by major buyers. US commercial crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories all increased in the week ending November 21 [6][7]. - Market sentiment: Fed officials' dovish speeches have increased the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut, with the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut rising to 86.9%. The US dollar index is under pressure, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield has declined rapidly [6]. 3.2 Polyester Sector Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: WTI crude oil increased by 0.65% week - on - week, PX601 decreased by 1.64%, TA601 decreased by 1.36%, EG601 increased by 1.33%, PF602 decreased by 0.93%, and PR601 decreased by 0.70%. - Spot prices: Naphtha decreased by 1.24%, PX CFR Taiwan decreased by 0.96%, PTA spot decreased by 0.39%, ethylene glycol in East China increased by 0.34%, polyester staple fiber in East China decreased by 0.40%, and polyester bottle chips in East China decreased by 0.35% [9]. 3.3 Supply and Demand of Polyester Raw Materials - PX: The 800,000 - tonne unit of Sinochem Quanzhou has been shut down for maintenance, but the restart of Shanghai Petrochemical has increased supply. As of November 28, the domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 89.74%, and the output was 752,600 tonnes. Asian PX capacity utilization decreased slightly to 79.4%. Next week, supply is expected to decline slightly, and PX processing fees have bottom - end support [14]. - PTA: The restart of Shenghong's unit was offset by the maintenance of Yisheng Ningbo and Sichuan Energy Investment units, resulting in a slight decrease in supply this week. As of November 28, the domestic PTA weekly capacity utilization rate was 71.92%, and the output was 1.3747 million tonnes. Social inventory continued to decline. Next week, supply is expected to increase slightly [17]. - Ethylene glycol: The shutdown of Sinochem Quanzhou's unit and the delay of Puyang's restart led to a slight decrease in supply this week. As of November 28, the domestic ethylene glycol weekly average capacity utilization rate was 62.67%. The restart of Hongsifang's unit and the planned restart of Huayi's unit are expected to increase supply next week, but supply is expected to decline in December [19]. 3.4 Polyester End and Terminal Situation - Polyester end: The weekly average polyester operating rate was 87.38%, a decrease of 0.21 percentage points week - on - week. - Terminal: As of November 28, the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 66.93%, a decrease of 0.76 percentage points. The order days of Chinese weaving sample enterprises were 13.04 days, a decrease of 0.50 days, and the坯布 inventory days were 23.45 days, an increase of 0.60 days [20][30]. 3.5 Methanol and Polyethylene Data - Price trends: The futures price of MA2601 increased by 6.54%, and the spot price of methanol in Taicang increased by 3.71%. The futures price of L2601 increased by 0.28%, while the spot prices of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE decreased [35]. - Methanol supply: As of November 27, the domestic methanol operating rate was 89.09%, and the output was 2.0235 million tonnes. This week, some units resumed production, and next week, Jiutai New Materials plans to resume production [42]. - Methanol demand: The overall downstream operating rate increased slightly, but MTO operating rate has limited room for further increase, and traditional downstream is in the off - season. The 1.2 - million - tonne acetic acid unit of Celanese has been shut down for maintenance since November 28 [45]. - Methanol inventory: As of November 26, the port inventory was 1.3635 million tonnes, a decrease of 7.83%, and the inland inventory was 373,700 tonnes, an increase of 4.19%. Iranian units have entered the gas - restricted shutdown state [48]. - Plastic supply: As of November 27, the domestic plastic operating rate was 84.51%, and the output was 684,800 tonnes. This week, some units were under maintenance, and some units resumed production. Next week, no units are planned for maintenance, and some units are expected to resume production [51]. - Plastic demand: As of November 27, the plastic downstream operating rate was 44.3%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points. The demand for greenhouse films is expected to decline, and the packaging film is still digesting previous orders, with a decreasing scale [55]. - Plastic inventory: As of November 26, the social plastic inventory was 471,100 tonnes, a decrease of 3.05%, and the two - oil enterprise inventory was 384,000 tonnes, a decrease of 9.43%. Manufacturers are actively reducing inventory [59].

Group 1 - Silver futures prices have reached a new high of $53.93 per ounce due to tightening supply and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3] - Domestic silver inventory in China has dropped to a seven-year low, with exports exceeding 660 tons in October, marking a historical high [1][5] - The surge in exports is attributed to cross-border tariff arbitrage, which has intensified supply constraints [5][6] Group 2 - The overall precious metals market is supported by macroeconomic conditions, with traders betting on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver [5][7] - The expectation of interest rate cuts has been reinforced by dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials, indicating a potential for further rate reductions [7] - The tightening supply theme is also affecting the industrial metals market, particularly copper, with predictions of a significant supply shortfall leading to potential price increases [8]

Core Viewpoint - The gold futures market is experiencing fluctuations influenced by geopolitical developments and macroeconomic factors, with a notable focus on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine negotiations and expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Market Data - On November 28, the closing price for Shanghai gold futures was 953.92 yuan per gram, reflecting a daily increase of 0.76% with a trading volume of 189,713 lots and an open interest of 202,129 lots [1]. - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was reported at 948.49 yuan per gram, indicating a discount of 5.43 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [1]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - According to Galaxy Futures, the market sentiment was relatively subdued due to the absence of significant news and data during the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, continuing the trend of a dovish shift from Federal Reserve officials and renewed bets on a potential rate cut in December [2]. - The weakening U.S. dollar, combined with the ongoing and complex negotiations regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has led to gold and silver prices experiencing high-level fluctuations, with silver showing stronger performance than gold [2]. - The increase in silver ETF holdings and low global inventory levels, alongside elevated leasing rates around 5%, suggest a tight supply-demand situation in the overseas spot market [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ suspending the production increase plan in Q1 2026 will relieve supply - side pressure to some extent, but supply surplus will remain the main trading logic as demand enters the off - season. Geopolitical factors will cause fluctuations in the oil price. The market is expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation, and it is recommended to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $55 - $65 per barrel [51] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In November, the crude oil market showed a weak and oscillating pattern under the game of long and short factors. At the beginning of the month, the suspension of the production increase plan in Q1 2026 by OPEC+ and sanctions on Russian oil companies supported the oil price. However, in the middle and late of the month, the weakening global crude oil outlook in the OPEC+ monthly report and the rising expectation of geopolitical easing suppressed the market, and the supply surplus expectation was the main trading logic [7] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - **OPEC+ Production Policy**: OPEC+ will increase production in December and suspend production increase in Q1 2026. Eight countries will increase the production quota by 137,000 barrels per day in December. The suspension of production increase can relieve supply pressure in the short - term, but OPEC+ still aims to compete for market share through production increase in the long - term [11][12] - **OPEC Monthly Report**: OPEC's expectation for the global crude oil market has shifted from balance to surplus, with a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day currently compared to a previous shortage expectation of 400,000 barrels per day. The supply growth expectation of non - OPEC countries in 2025 has been raised by 110,000 barrels per day, and the demand for OPEC crude oil in 2026 has been lowered [12][15] - **Fed's Interest Rate Expectation**: Fed officials have made dovish statements, and the market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December has risen to 85%. The labor market shows a "split" situation, and the Fed's latest "Beige Book" indicates that consumer spending decline is the main drag on the US economy [13] - **Geopolitical Factors**: A 28 - point peace plan to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict was proposed, then reduced to 19 points. Trump said the peace agreement was "very close to being reached", but Russia believes the 19 - point plan does not meet its interests. Short - term geopolitical easing expectation has risen, but there are still large differences between the two sides [14] 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side** - **OPEC Production**: In October, OPEC's crude oil production was 28.46 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 33,000 barrels per day. OPEC+ production in October was 43.02 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 73,000 barrels per day. The supply - side pressure has increased significantly as demand enters the off - season [17] - **US Crude Oil Production**: As of November 21, the US weekly EIA crude oil production was 13.814 million barrels per day, an increase of 170,000 barrels per day compared to the same period last month. Supported by technological progress and policy, US crude oil production is expected to remain stable, but the growth rate will slow down [20] - **US Oil Drilling Rigs**: As of November 21, the total number of US oil drilling rigs was 419, an increase of 2 compared to the previous statistical period and the same as the same period last month. It is expected to remain at a low level [22] - **Demand Side** - **US Manufacturing**: In October, the US ISM manufacturing PMI decreased to 48.7, while the Chicago PMI rebounded. The contraction of the manufacturing industry has restricted crude oil demand to some extent [24] - **US Refinery Utilization Rate**: As of November 21, the US refinery utilization rate was 92.3%, a month - on - month increase of 5.7 percentage points. It is expected to boost crude oil consumption seasonally [28] - **China's Manufacturing**: In October, China's manufacturing PMI decreased and remained below the boom - bust line, with weak demand and significant differentiation between supply and demand. Small and medium - sized enterprises face greater pressure [36] - **China's Refinery Utilization Rate**: As of November 20, the utilization rate of domestic major refineries was 75.69%, a decrease of 5.2 percentage points compared to the same period last month. The utilization rate of local independent refineries was 62.97%, an increase of 1.62 percentage points. Overall, domestic crude oil consumption faces short - term weakening pressure [40] - **Inventory** - **US EIA Crude Oil Inventory**: As of November 21, the US weekly EIA crude oil inventory was 2.774 million barrels, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 498,000 barrels. With the increase in refinery utilization rate and the slowdown in production growth, the inventory is expected to decline seasonally [45] - **Cushing Crude Oil Inventory and Gasoline Inventory**: As of November 21, the EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was - 68,000 barrels, and the gasoline inventory was 2.099 million barrels. The Cushing inventory has remained stable at a low level in recent years, and the oil inventory has entered the accumulation stage [49]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report Core Views - The overall macro - sentiment is warming up, and different non - ferrous metals have different market trends and investment suggestions based on their own supply - demand fundamentals. For aluminum, copper, and lithium carbonate, short - and long - term investment strategies are proposed according to their market conditions [44][47][50] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Metal Spot Price Trends - Copper: The futures主力合约 (CU2601) rose from 85,660 yuan to 87,430 yuan, a weekly increase of 2.07%. The average price of 1 copper in Shanghai spot rose from 85,870 yuan to 87,340 yuan, a 1.71% increase [4] - Aluminum: The futures主力合约 (AL2601) rose from 21,340 yuan to 21,610 yuan, a 1.27% increase. The average price of A00 aluminum in Shanghai spot rose from 21,370 yuan to 21,440 yuan, a 0.33% increase [4] - Zinc: The futures主力合约 (ZN2601) rose slightly from 22,390 yuan to 22,425 yuan, a 0.16% increase. The average price of 0 zinc in Shanghai spot fell from 22,430 yuan to 22,370 yuan, a 0.27% decrease [4] - Lead: The futures主力合约 (PB2601) fell from 17,165 yuan to 17,090 yuan, a 0.44% decrease. The average price of 1 lead ingot fell from 17,075 yuan to 16,975 yuan, a 0.59% decrease [4] - Nickel: The futures主力合约 (NI2601) rose from 114,050 yuan to 117,080 yuan, a 2.66% increase. The average price of 1 electrolytic nickel rose from 116,700 yuan to 119,500 yuan, a 2.40% increase [4] - Alumina: The futures主力合约 (AO2601) fell from 2,713 yuan to 2,707 yuan, a 0.22% decrease. The alumina price in Foshan spot fell from 2,880 yuan to 2,870 yuan, a 0.35% decrease [4] - Industrial Silicon: The futures主力合约 (SI2601) rose from 8,960 yuan to 9,130 yuan, a 1.90% increase. The average price of 553 silicon remained unchanged at 9,600 yuan [4] - Lithium Carbonate: The futures主力合约 (LC2605) rose from 91,960 yuan to 96,420 yuan, a 4.85% increase. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) rose from 91,800 yuan to 92,500 yuan, a 0.76% increase [4] - Polysilicon: The futures主力合约 (PS2601) rose from 53,360 yuan to 56,425 yuan, a 5.74% increase. The price of N - type polysilicon material remained unchanged at 52,300 yuan [4] 3.2 Metal Inventory Changes - **Copper**: As of November 28, SHFE copper inventory was 97,900 tons, a decrease of 12,700 tons (- 11.48%) from last week; LME copper inventory was 157,200 tons, a decrease of 700 tons (- 0.44%); COMEX copper inventory was 417,700 tons, an increase of 19,200 tons (+ 4.82%) [11][12] - **Zinc**: As of November 28, LME zinc inventory was 50,800 tons, an increase of 4,700 tons (+ 10.20%); SHFE zinc inventory was 67,600 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons (- 7.27%) [21] - **Aluminum**: As of November 28, LME aluminum inventory was 541,100 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons; SHFE aluminum inventory was 115,300 tons, a decrease of 8,400 tons; COMEX aluminum inventory was 5,669 tons, a decrease of 402 tons. Overall, electrolytic aluminum inventory showed a destocking trend [35] 3.3 Metal Ore Processing Fees and Indexes - Copper concentrate processing fees are at a historical low. As of November 27, the copper concentrate spot TC was - 42.15 dollars/ton, and the RC was - 4.21 cents/pound, with a tight supply expectation [13][15] - The lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) index rose by 61 dollars/ton to 1,150 dollars/ton as of November 28 [17] - Zinc concentrate processing fees remained high. As of November 21, the zinc concentrate main port TC was 90 dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 dollars from November 14 [19][22] 3.4 Aluminum Supply - side Situation - **Raw materials**: As of November 21, the bauxite port inventory was 28.0236 million tons, a decrease of 498,700 tons from last week. As of the end of October, the bauxite inventory of alumina plants was 24.53 million tons, at a historical high [28] - **Alumina supply**: As of November 28, the weekly operating rate of alumina enterprises was 86.06%, slightly increased; the weekly output was 1.858 million tons, also increased. The total inventory was 4.942 million tons, an increase of 59,000 tons from last week [30] - **Electrolytic aluminum supply**: As of the end of October, China's primary aluminum output was 3.766 million tons, imports were 248,400 tons, and inventory was 618,000 tons. The electrolytic aluminum industry operating rate was 98.24%, remaining at a high level [33] 3.5 Non - ferrous Metal Demand - side Situation - **Automobile**: In October 2025, automobile production and sales were 3.359 million and 3.322 million vehicles respectively, with month - on - month growth of 2.5% and 3%, and year - on - year growth of 12.1% and 8.8%. From January to October 2025, automobile production and sales were 27.692 million and 27.687 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 13.2% and 12.4% [37] - **New energy vehicles**: In October 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.772 million and 1.715 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 21.1% and 20%. From January to October 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 13.015 million and 12.943 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 33.1% and 32.7% [38] - **Real estate**: From January to October, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.52939 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The new housing start area was 490.61 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%. The housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9% [40] - **Power generation**: As of the end of October, the cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.75 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.3%. The solar power installed capacity was 1.14 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 43.8%. In October, the new photovoltaic installed capacity was 12.6 GW, a 30.4% increase from September [42] 3.6 Strategy Recommendations - **Aluminum**: Short - term: Alumina is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to go long on SHFE aluminum at low prices. Long - term: Under the quantitative easing environment, SHFE aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly, and alumina will oscillate weakly without large - scale production cuts [44][45] - **Copper**: Short - term: The game between long and short positions intensifies, and the price will oscillate in a high - level range. Long - term: There is long - term positive demand support, and it is recommended to go long in the medium - to - long - term [47][48] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term: The price may oscillate repeatedly at a high level, and attention should be paid to the resumption progress of mines. Long - term: Energy storage provides strong demand support, and it is recommended to allocate long positions [50][51][52]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This year from January to October, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size slowed down, and the inventory of finished products increased year - on - year. After removing the influence of the low - base effect of the same period last year, corporate profitability remained weak. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has sharply increased, and gold is expected to rebound in the short term. The stock index may continue its phased adjustment after a short - term rebound [13][21][37] - In the short term, be cautious about the stock index's rebound and be vigilant against the risk of a fall again. Gold may continue to adjust after a short - term rebound. In the medium to long term, the stock index will maintain a wide - range shock, and gold may face a deep adjustment [37] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic and International Macroeconomic Data - From January to October this year, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5,950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%, and the growth rate dropped by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month. In October, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, turning negative again after two months [4] Stock Index Fundamental Data Corporate Profit - From January to October this year, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size slowed down, and after removing the influence of the low - base effect of the same period last year, corporate profitability remained weak [13] Capital Situation - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets slightly declined to 2,444.787 billion yuan. The central bank conducted a total of 1,511.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 1,000 billion yuan of one - year MLF operations this week, achieving a net injection of 6.42 billion yuan [16] Gold Fundamental Data Risk - Free Interest Rate: Holding Cost and Inflation Level - Fed officials unexpectedly sent dovish signals, and the market's expectation of a rate cut in December soared. According to the CME 'FedWatch' tool, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December rose to 86.9%, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield slightly declined [21][22] U.S. Retail Sales Monthly Rate and Employment Situation - Not provided Domestic and International Gold Inventory Situation - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures slowed down, and the inventory of COMEX gold in New York continued to decline, reflecting a cooling of the market's bullish sentiment [36] Strategy Recommendation - This year from January to October, the year - on - year profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size slowed down, mainly affected by the increase in the base of the same period last year and the weakening of demand. The prices of industries such as new energy, non - ferrous metals, and coal have rebounded, which is helpful for the profit recovery of upstream raw material processing industries; the profit growth of industries such as home appliances, mobile communications, and consumer electronics has slowed down, while the profit of high - end and equipment manufacturing industries has maintained rapid growth; downstream enterprises still face great operating pressure [37] - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has heated up, the external market has clearly recovered, and concerns about the bursting of the technology stock bubble have been temporarily alleviated. After a short - term rebound, the stock index may continue its phased adjustment. Gold can be regarded as a short - term rebound [37] - In the short term, be cautious about the stock index's rebound and be vigilant against the risk of a fall again. Fed officials' dovish remarks have reignited the market's expectation of a rate cut in December, and gold may continue to adjust after a short - term rebound. In the medium to long term, the stock index will maintain a wide - range shock, and gold may face a deep adjustment [37] - Next week's key points and risk warnings: important data such as the U.S. November manufacturing PMI and ADP employment figures [37]

震荡偏强 发布日期：2025 年 11 月 28 日 【行情分析】 今日铜低开高走，震荡偏强，印尼 Grasberg 矿区预计明年二季度复产，铜冶炼端长 单谈判依然在进行中，目前粗炼费精炼费延续窄幅波动，基本无变化。精炼铜进口环比 减少，但国内铜相对供应充裕，暂时未出现货源偏紧的状态。770 号文目前尚未落地， 再生铜杆企业开工谨慎，江西安徽等产地再生铜杆产量下降，后续随着政策的落地，预 计再生铜杆开工负荷能有回升。上周铜价下跌后，下游市场逢低拿货有增加，2025 年 10 月中国铜材产量 200.4 万吨，环比下滑超 10%，同比下降 3.3%；主要系 10 月份铜价大幅 反弹，受成本高价的制约，铜材生产受抑制，负反馈铜基本面偏弱势。近期上期所铜库 存冲高回落，库存压力有所缓解，但依然同比偏高，处于历年同期高位。综合来看，近 期随着美联储降息的预期概率提升，美元走弱，铜价也逐渐反弹，基本面暂无明显变 化，关注库存去化持续性，降息预期未反转之前，预计偏强。 【冠通期货研究报告】 资料来源：同花顺期货通（日线图表） 【期现行情】 期货方面：沪铜低开高走，震荡偏强。 现货方面：今日华东现货升贴水 105 元/吨， ...

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 本周全国沥青均价为3388.43元/吨，环比下跌36.57元/吨或1.07%。首先从成本端来看，美联储针对12月 降息预期不断增强，美元偏弱，宏观环境改善。但由于美国原油累库，利空油价，市场多空因素交织， 原油价格维持窄幅波动，成本端对沥青现货价格缺乏有效支撑。其次从供需角度分析，本周沥青装置开 工负荷率有所上涨，而沥青刚性需求整体延续淡稳态势，部分地区沥青现货资源供应较为充裕，沥青基 本面仍然偏弱，施压本周沥青现货价格持续下跌。下周来看，成本端变化不大，需求季节性下滑持续， 供应量降幅较小，现货价格继续下行，预计均价运行区间在3350-3380元/吨。（卓创资讯） 沥青：刚性需求持续偏弱 沥青现货价格难止跌势 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuating performance of global tech stock indices, particularly those related to AI technology, which have shown similar patterns across A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and U.S. stocks since October [1] - The recent volatility in tech stocks is attributed to two main factors: changes in interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve and ongoing debates about the potential bubble in AI giants [1][2] - The financial aspect indicates a strong correlation between tech stock performance and shifts in interest rate expectations, with an 84.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, up from 69.4% the previous week [1] Group 2 - From a fundamental perspective, the valuations of U.S. AI tech giants are considered relatively high after a prolonged increase, raising concerns about potential bubble tendencies [2] - Comparisons are made between the current market and the 2000 internet bubble, noting that current AI leaders have more substantial revenue growth and a stronger economic impact, with tech contributing approximately 59% to the overall growth in the U.S. economy by mid-2025 [2] - Investment sentiment has not yet reached the peak levels seen during the internet bubble, with the dynamic P/E ratio of the "Magnificent Seven" around 30 times, significantly lower than the peak of over 60 times during the internet bubble [2] Group 3 - The analysis concludes that it may be premature to declare a bubble in U.S. AI tech stocks, although the market might be entering a "halftime" phase, suggesting potential shifts in leadership among companies [3] - While U.S. tech giants drive the industry wave, other markets may not diverge significantly in trends, but they are influenced by various macroeconomic, financial, and structural factors [3] - For investors concerned about tech stock volatility, diversification of asset allocation is recommended to mitigate portfolio fluctuations and enhance the investment experience [3]