Core Viewpoint - Trump's tariff policies aim to reshape global trade order and promote U.S. re-industrialization, with a focus on generating new revenue sources through tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Implementation and Impact - Trump imposed high tariffs on nearly all U.S. trading partners within 40 days, with China facing the highest tariffs, reaching 145% on certain goods [4][6]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies has reached historical highs, significantly impacting market confidence and leading to increased concerns among businesses [2][6]. - A temporary suspension of tariffs was announced for 90 days, reducing tariffs from 49% to 10% for certain countries, but China remained unaffected [4][7]. Group 2: Business Challenges - U.S. businesses, particularly small companies reliant on Chinese imports, faced severe challenges due to rising costs and declining sales, leading to cash flow issues [9][10]. - Major retailers like Walmart indicated they could not fully absorb tariff costs, leading to price increases for consumers [11][12]. - The toy industry, represented by companies like Mattel, anticipated price hikes due to tariffs, with significant portions of their products manufactured in China [12][13]. Group 3: Agricultural Sector Impact - U.S. farmers have suffered significant losses due to trade wars, with agricultural exports dropping by over $27 billion during Trump's first term [15][18]. - California pistachio growers, heavily reliant on the Chinese market, faced potential devastating losses due to tariffs [16][17]. - The soybean export market has seen a drastic decline, with exports to China dropping by 75% since the onset of the trade war [18]. Group 4: Consumer Confidence - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has been negatively affected by tariff policies, with a reported decline in consumer sentiment index [20][21]. - The uncertainty and rising costs associated with tariffs have led to a significant reduction in imports at major California ports, indicating broader economic impacts [22]. - The recent agreement to reduce tariffs between the U.S. and China has provided some clarity, but economists warn of potential economic slowdowns in the coming quarters [23][24].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled on May 29 that President Trump's imposition of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) was illegal, challenging the legitimacy of the U.S. trade war and potentially leading to significant changes in trade policy [2][24]. Summary by Sections Current Status of the U.S. International Trade Court Ruling - The court found that the President lacked the authority to unilaterally impose tariffs on all imported goods under IEEPA, infringing on Congress's constitutional trade legislative powers [2][25]. - A permanent injunction was issued against the Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to cease the collection of tariffs imposed under IEEPA, effective within 10 days unless a stay is granted by a higher court [2][25]. Who Are the Plaintiffs? - The ruling was a result of a combined lawsuit from 12 Democratic state attorneys general and five importers represented by a nonprofit organization [3][26]. - The court's reasoning included that Trump's tariffs exceeded the authority granted by IEEPA and lacked a reasonable connection to the issues of fentanyl and immigration [3][26]. Which Tariffs May Become Invalid? - Tariffs related to fentanyl and those imposed on Mexico and Canada, as well as a global 10% baseline tariff, are likely to be affected [4][27]. - However, tariffs from Trump's earlier policies, such as the Section 301 tariffs on China, remain in effect, with potential reductions to around 12% [4][27]. Impact of the Ruling and Trump's Possible Responses - Trump has appealed the ruling and may seek a stay from the Federal Circuit Court, with the appeal process potentially lasting 6 to 18 months [5][28]. - The administration still has other tools available, such as Sections 301, 232, and 122, to impose tariffs, although these come with more constraints compared to IEEPA [5][28]. Historical Context and Market Reaction - Historically, major trade wars initiated by Republican presidents have ended in three ways: domestic opposition leading to electoral defeat, achieving specific trade goals, or WTO rulings against the U.S. [6][29]. - Following the court's decision, risk assets surged while safe-haven assets declined, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.2% and the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by 3.2 basis points [6][29].

宝盛银行：英伟达的业绩增长令人惊讶 金十数据5月29日讯，瑞士宝盛银行分析师写道，尽管面临贸易战带来的种种挑战，英伟达仍以惊人的 速度持续增长。我们不知道它是如何做到的，但它确实做到了。英伟达继续逆势而上。该行分析师指 出，尽管因美国的限制措施，英伟达无法销售H20芯片，从而产生了与过剩库存和采购义务相关的45亿 美元费用，但该公司仍实现较高增长率。 ...

| | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | 2025/5/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 | 最新 环比 最新 | 数据指标 | | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 1808.000 19.1↑ EC次主力收盘价 | | 2131 | +127.10↑ | | 期货盘面 EC2506-EC2508价差 | -323.00 -146.50↓ EC2506-EC2510价差 | | 415.60 | -8.00↓ | | EC合约基差 | -560.95 -35.00↓ | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 12716 0↑ | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 1247.05 -18.25↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | | 1,719.79 | 273.43↑ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | 1586.12 106.73↑ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | | 1,227.97 | 0.00↑ | | 现货价格 CCFI（综合指数）（周） | 1107.40 2.52↑ CCFI（欧线）（周） 1,3 ...

智通财经APP获悉，周四公布的调查显示，受美国总统特朗普关税政策影响抵消半导体强劲需求的拖 累，韩国5月出口可能录得四个月来首次下滑。 韩亚证券经济学家Chun Kyu-yeon表示，"5月半导体出口表现超预期，但这可能是由于担忧美国对芯片 进口加征关税而提前下单所致"。本月前20天出口下降2.4%，其中对美出口骤降14.6%，对华出口下滑 7.2%。 5月，美中两国同意通过取消大部分相互加征的关税90天来暂停贸易战。 根据5月19-28日进行的调查，韩国5月进口预计下滑3.1%，4月为下降2.7%。贸易顺差中值预计为46.1亿 美元，上月为48.8亿美元。 特朗普已对进口汽车和钢铁产品征收25%关税，并暗示可能对半导体和医药产品加征更多关税。其在4 月初宣布的包括对韩国25%关税在内的报复性关税措施，目前除10%基础税率外均暂缓实施以待谈判。 根据16位经济学家的预测中值，这个亚洲第四大经济体5月出口预计同比下滑2.7%，这将是自1月以来 首次出现同比负增长。 作为全球主要出口经济体中最先公布月度贸易数据的国家，韩国定于6月1日周日当地时间上午9点发布5 月贸易数据。 梅里茨证券经济学家史蒂芬·李指出，"令 ...

Macroeconomic Overview - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that the Trump administration's "Day of Liberation" tariff policy exceeded its authority, leading to a suspension of its implementation, emphasizing that presidential trade management powers cannot surpass those granted to Congress by the Constitution [1] - This lawsuit, initiated by five small import businesses, marks the first significant legal challenge against the tariff policy, with seven similar lawsuits ongoing [1] - The ruling has alleviated market concerns regarding the trade war, resulting in a rise in U.S. stock index futures, with the Nasdaq futures increasing by 1.8% [1] - The dollar index surpassed the 100 mark, reflecting a positive market sentiment following Trump's postponement of tariffs on the EU and an agreement with China to reduce tariffs [1] - The Federal Reserve's May meeting minutes indicate officials are grappling with the dual challenges of rising inflation and unemployment, with a 60% probability of a rate cut in September [1] - Despite gold prices rising by 26% this year, the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve has suppressed gold prices [1] - Consumer confidence data exceeded expectations, reinforcing a robust economic outlook, while investors are focused on upcoming GDP, PCE data, and fiscal policy developments [1] Dollar Index - On Wednesday, the dollar index showed an upward trend, reaching a high of 99.933 and a low of 99.414, closing at 99.865 [2] - The market exhibited a bullish sentiment after a brief period of fluctuation, with a significant rise in the U.S. trading session [2] - Key resistance levels to watch include 100.20, with a focus on whether the index can maintain this level [2] - The weekly analysis indicates resistance at 101.70, suggesting a potential bearish trend in the medium term [2] Gold Market - Gold prices experienced a decline on Wednesday, with a high of 3325 and a low of 3276.48, closing at 3288.35 [4] - The market showed a bearish trend after testing key resistance levels, leading to a significant downward movement [4] - Current support levels are identified at 3270, with a focus on potential further declines if this level is breached [5] Euro/USD - The Euro/USD pair showed a downward trend on Wednesday, with a low of 1.1283 and a high of 1.1344, closing at 1.1289 [6] - The market remains under pressure due to resistance levels, indicating a bearish outlook [6] - Long-term support is noted at 1.0800, while short-term focus is on the 1.1130 area [6] Key Financial Data and Events - Upcoming key financial events include the Bank of England Governor Bailey's speech, Canadian current account data, U.S. initial jobless claims, and revisions to U.S. GDP [11]

Macroeconomic Overview - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that the Trump administration's "Liberation Day" tariff policy exceeded its authority, suspending its implementation, which indicates that presidential trade management powers cannot surpass those granted to Congress by the Constitution [1] - This lawsuit, initiated by five small import businesses, marks the first significant legal challenge against the tariff policy, with seven similar lawsuits ongoing [1] - The ruling has alleviated market concerns regarding the trade war, leading to an increase in U.S. stock index futures, with the Nasdaq futures rising by 1.8% [1] - The U.S. dollar index surpassed the 100 mark, following Trump's postponement of tariffs on the EU and an agreement with China to reduce tariffs, which eased economic pessimism [1] - The Federal Reserve's May meeting minutes revealed officials are facing a "difficult trade-off" between rising inflation and unemployment, with a 60% probability of a rate cut in September [1] - Despite gold prices rising by 26% this year, the Fed's cautious stance has suppressed gold prices [1] - Investors are focused on upcoming GDP, PCE data, and fiscal policy developments, following consumer confidence data that exceeded expectations, reinforcing economic stability [1] Gold Market Analysis - On Wednesday, gold prices showed a downward trend, peaking at 3325 and dropping to a low of 3276.48, closing at 3288.35 [2] - The price experienced short-term fluctuations in the morning, testing key resistance levels before facing downward pressure, resulting in a bearish closing [2] - Monthly analysis indicates a correction after three months of price increases, with a four-month upward trend now facing a single-month correction [3] - Weekly analysis shows gold prices supported at the 3160 level, suggesting a continued bullish outlook unless the weekly support is broken [3] - Daily analysis indicates a support level at 3270, with a bearish outlook following a breach of this support [3] - Short-term analysis highlights resistance at the 3295 level, with a cautious approach recommended for further price movements [3] - A trading strategy suggests a short position in the 3294-3295 range, with a stop loss of 10 USD and a target between 3245-3210 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Federal Court has blocked President Trump's tariff policy, leading to a surge in global market optimism and a reversal of the "sell America" trading strategy. Nvidia's strong earnings forecast also boosted investor sentiment [1][11]. Market Reactions - U.S. stock futures rebounded strongly, with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures rising by 1.7% and 2.1% respectively [2]. - Asian stock markets saw significant gains, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index rising by 1.2% [4]. - The U.S. dollar index climbed to its highest point in over a week, while the Japanese yen depreciated by 0.8% against the dollar [4]. Bond Market - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds increased by 2 basis points following the tariff news [10]. Currency Market - The U.S. dollar had previously fallen over 7% since its peak in February due to the negative market sentiment caused by the tariff policy. The recent court ruling has led to a more positive outlook for trade, resulting in a rebound of the dollar [6][7]. Company-Specific Developments - Nvidia's CEO provided a robust sales forecast, indicating that the AI computing market is still in a phase of "exponential growth," which led to a nearly 5% jump in Nvidia's stock during after-hours trading [11]. - Conversely, HP's stock fell approximately 8% in after-hours trading due to lower-than-expected profit forecasts and a downward revision of its annual earnings outlook [11]. - Companies like Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys experienced significant stock declines due to news of chip restrictions from the Trump administration [11].

Group 1 - Trump's recent announcement offers a "get out of jail free card" for countries imposing tariffs on China, aiming to reshape global trade dynamics [1] - The only country supporting Trump is the UK, while others like the EU, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and Australia show a negative attitude towards his approach [3] - Trump's strategy to pressure allies into imposing tariffs on China has seen limited success, particularly with the EU hesitating to agree due to its significant trade ties with China [5][8] Group 2 - Countries are reluctant to respond to Trump's call for tariffs on China due to the importance of the Chinese market for their economies, with significant exports at stake [8] - China's strong stance against any actions that harm its interests has been made clear, with potential retaliatory measures that could impact global supply chains [8][10] - Trump's credibility is questioned due to past actions, leading countries to avoid jeopardizing their relationships with China for uncertain short-term gains [8][12] Group 3 - The global trade situation remains unstable, with China showing resilience against U.S. pressure while remaining open to negotiations [10][19] - Trump's global trade strategy appears to be at an impasse, as allies are unwilling to cooperate, and domestic pressures are mounting [21] - Countries are cautious about engaging in conflict with China, recognizing the potential negative consequences of such actions [19][22]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Federal Court has blocked President Trump's tariff policy, ruling that he overstepped his authority by imposing comprehensive tariffs on countries that export more to the U.S. than they import [1][10][12]. Group 1: Court Ruling and Implications - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that Trump's declaration of trade deficits as a "national emergency" under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) exceeded legal authority [10][12]. - The court emphasized that the Constitution grants Congress exclusive power to regulate foreign trade, and the President's emergency powers cannot override this [11]. - This ruling is a significant setback for Trump, as it challenges the limits of presidential power in trade matters [12]. Group 2: Legal Challenges and Future Actions - The ruling can be appealed to the U.S. Court of Appeals and potentially to the Supreme Court, with at least five other legal challenges against the tariffs ongoing [13]. - Trump has decided to appeal the trade court's ruling, but if he loses, it could halt the implemented 10% comprehensive tariffs and any pending reciprocal tariffs [14]. - The outcome may reshape ongoing trade negotiations with the EU, Japan, India, and other countries [14]. Group 3: The Role of the U.S. International Trade Court - The U.S. International Trade Court, which has jurisdiction over nationwide tariff and trade disputes, operates largely unnoticed and is unfamiliar to many lawyers [15][16]. - The case was heard by a panel of three judges, including notable figures from previous administrations, indicating the careful handling of constitutional power distribution cases [16]. - Regardless of whether a ban is issued, the ruling will set an important precedent for future presidential use of the IEEPA [17].