Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Spiral Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil Morning Report (2025-4-10) [1] - Analyst: Hu Yuxiu from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - **Rebar**: The overall view on rebar is bearish. Demand is seasonally rising, but inventory is only slightly decreasing, and traders' purchasing willingness remains weak. The downstream real estate industry is in a downward cycle. With a bearish outlook on the real estate market and potential cooling demand, a bearish approach is recommended for rb2510 in the range of 3070 - 3150 [2]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: The view on hot rolled coil is also bearish. Both supply and demand are weakening, inventory is decreasing, and although demand is better than last year and the historical average, exports are blocked. A bearish approach is recommended for hc2510 in the range of 3150 - 3250 [5]. Group 4: Rebar Analysis Fundamental Factors - **Demand**: Seasonal demand is rising, but downstream real estate is in a downward cycle, and terminal demand is weak [2]. - **Inventory**: National inventory in 35 major cities is 590.95 tons, decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year [2]. - **Base Difference**: The spot price of rebar is 3130, and the base difference is 42, which is bullish [2]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The short position of the main rebar contract is decreasing [2]. Influencing Factors - **Positive**: Production and inventory are at a low level, and consumption is increasing month - on - month [3]. - **Negative**: The downstream real estate industry's downward cycle continues, and terminal demand is weaker than the same period [3]. Group 5: Hot Rolled Coil Analysis Fundamental Factors - **Supply and Demand**: Both supply and demand are weakening, inventory is decreasing, and demand is better than last year and the historical average, but exports are blocked [5]. - **Base Difference**: The spot price of hot rolled coil is 3240, and the base difference is 32, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: National inventory in 33 major cities is 301.09 tons, decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year [5]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [5]. - **Main Position**: The short position of the main hot rolled coil contract is decreasing [5]. Influencing Factors - **Positive**: Demand remains higher than the same period, and inventory is starting to decrease [6]. - **Negative**: Inventory is relatively high, and exports are blocked [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resilience of Yiwu's small commodity market in the face of U.S. tariff policies, highlighting the market's strong supply chain, diverse export destinations, and competitive pricing as key factors for maintaining growth despite external pressures [3][4][12]. Group 1: Market Overview - Yiwu is recognized as the world's largest small commodity distribution center, often referred to as the "world supermarket" [3]. - The market has shown strong adaptability, with local businesses continuing operations normally despite the looming threat of U.S. tariffs [5][6]. - Yiwu's export to the U.S. reached 83.57 billion yuan in 2024, making it the largest export market for Yiwu [11]. Group 2: Business Sentiment - Local business owners express confidence that U.S. tariff policies will not significantly impact their sales, citing the competitive pricing and quality of Yiwu products [6][9]. - Business owners like Wang Xuxue and Jiang Jiangping report that their U.S. clients remain committed to purchasing, indicating a stable demand for Yiwu products [6][8]. Group 3: Export Dynamics - Yiwu's exports to the U.S. have shown significant growth during previous trade tensions, with export growth rates of 11.98%, 25.14%, 33.04%, and 64.8% during Trump's first term [12]. - The market's diverse product offerings, with over 2.1 million SKUs, ensure a steady demand, particularly for essential goods [13]. Group 4: Competitive Advantages - Yiwu's small commodity market benefits from a strong supply chain and cost advantages, allowing it to compete effectively against U.S. products [13][18]. - The market's ability to maintain low prices, even in the face of tariffs, is attributed to its efficient production processes and strong supplier relationships [10][13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite the challenges posed by U.S. tariffs, Yiwu businesses are optimistic about exploring new markets and diversifying their customer base, particularly in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [15][16]. - The article suggests that the ongoing trade tensions may lead to a restructuring of global supply chains, but Yiwu's market resilience and adaptability position it well for future growth [18].

2025年04月10日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周三贵金属价格反弹；消息面，美联储会议纪要显示大多数官员担心关税对通胀影响持续更久， 一些人表示若通胀持续存在，增长和就业前景却减弱，可能面临"艰难取舍"；几乎全体支持上月会议的放慢 缩表决定，但多人认为此次会议没有信服的放慢理由；特朗普表示暂缓对中国以外国家的关税 90 天；经济数 据方面，欧央行表示贸易战可能拖累欧盟 GDP 约 0.25%，全年增速仅 1%。库存数据方面，印度 2 月白银进 口减至 250 吨左右；上期所白银库存昨日减少 64 吨至 1060 吨，金交所白银库存上周增加 37 吨 1768 吨。伦 敦 3 月库存减少 335 吨至 22124 吨，主要流向美国。近期国内白银价格走低，点价盘涌现，出现库存去化。 操作上，贸易战反复，建议白银空单控制仓位或者做多金银比。风险点：贸易战反复 基本金属 招商评论 铜 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏弱运行，但凌晨一点之后特朗普宣布对除了中国外的大部分国家关税下调到 10% 且暂缓 90 天增税，外盘铜价大幅上行。精废价差 1500 元左右。交易策略：建议逢 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Weak [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak [2] - Rebar: Weak [2] - Glass: Weak [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 300: Fluctuation [2] - CSI 500: Fluctuation [4] - CSI 1000: Fluctuation [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Fluctuation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: Correction [4] - Silver: Correction [4] - Soybean oil: Fluctuation [6] - Palm oil: Fluctuation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Fluctuation [6] - Soybean meal: Fluctuation with a bullish bias [6] - Rapeseed meal: Fluctuation with a bullish bias [6] - Soybean No. 2: Fluctuation with a bullish bias [6] - Soybean No. 1: Fluctuation with a bullish bias [6] - Rubber: Fluctuation with a bearish bias [6] - Pulp: Weak fluctuation [8] - Logs: Weak fluctuation [8] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Wait-and-see [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8] - PF: Buy on dips [8] - Plastic: Fluctuation with a bullish bias [8] - PP: Fluctuation with a bullish bias [10] - PVC: Fluctuation with a bullish bias [10] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tariff policy has disrupted the market, causing increased volatility in commodities. The US has imposed a 104% tariff on China, leading to a short-term bearish sentiment. The export order index of China's manufacturing industry in March continued to rise but remained in the contraction range, which will restrict the export of steel products and downstream products and drag down raw material demand [2]. - The geopolitical situation and high-interest rate environment are changing the pricing mechanism of gold. The global central bank's gold purchases are the key factor, reflecting the "decentralization" and hedging demand. Although the geopolitical risk has marginally decreased, Trump's tariff policy has intensified global trade tensions, and the market's hedging demand remains strong [4]. - The soybean production in South America is expected to be a record high, but some institutions have lowered the forecast for Brazil's soybean production. The increase in soybean imports in China in April may ease the tight supply situation. The inventory of the three major oils is at a high level, and the supply is abundant. It is expected that the oils will fluctuate in the short term [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The global iron ore shipment is expected to increase, and the supply is in a loose state. The profitability of steel enterprises has improved, and the daily average pig iron output has increased slightly. However, the export demand is weak. The iron ore price is affected by the macro - expectation and the reality. Conservative investors can consider the 05 - 09 positive spread operation of iron ore, and the 09 contract can be used as a long - term short allocation [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: China has increased the tariff on imported coking coal from the US. The import of coking coal from the US is expected to decrease, and imports from Mongolia, Russia, and Australia will increase to replace it. The coke supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the coking enterprises' inventory pressure has increased. The coking coal and coke generally follow the trend of finished products [2]. - **Rebar**: The mutual tariff increase is bearish for the black industry. Although there may be positive stimuli in China, it is difficult to reverse the situation. The rebar is at a neutral valuation level, and the valley - electricity cost supports the price. The production and demand of rebar are both increasing, but the demand recovery is slow. It is expected that the production will gradually increase in April [2]. - **Glass**: The production and sales in Shahe have declined significantly. The production has increased slightly from a low level, and the production profit has shrunk. The demand in the glass industry is seasonally increasing, and inventory reduction in April is expected. The short - term tariff policy is bearish for the market [2]. Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day saw gains in the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. The Central Peripheral Work Conference emphasized building a peripheral community with a shared future. The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the tariff rate on US - imported goods. The external market has stabilized, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment has eased. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond has decreased, and the market funds are stable. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the net回笼 was 11.1 billion yuan. It is expected that the Treasury bond price will rise [4]. - **Precious metals**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting. Although the geopolitical risk has decreased, Trump's tariff policy has increased the market's hedging demand. The physical gold demand in China has increased significantly. The short - term trade war and inflation expectations support the gold price [4]. Oils and Fats - **Oils**: Southeast Asian palm oil has entered the seasonal production - increasing cycle. The market expects the Malaysian palm oil inventory to rise for the first time in six months. The soybean production in South America is expected to be a record high, but the tariff policy may affect the trade pattern. The inventory of the three major oils is at a high level, and it is expected that the oils will fluctuate in the short term [6]. - **Meals**: China's counter - tariff on US goods may lead to a decline in US soybean exports. However, the US bio - energy policy and the reduction in planting area support the demand for US soybean crushing. The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans will occupy the Chinese market. It is expected that the tight supply of soybean meal will ease in the later stage [6]. Other Commodities - **Rubber**: The global natural rubber supply is entering the production - increasing period, and the import arrival has increased the inventory pressure. The downstream consumption is affected by the tariff dispute. The demand side shows signs of further weakening, and it is expected that the natural rubber market will show a weak - fluctuation trend in the short term [6]. - **Pulp**: The spot market price of pulp has continued to decline. The external price of pulp provides cost support, but the demand side is weak. It is expected that the pulp price will fluctuate weakly [8]. - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume of logs at the port has increased, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The spot market price is running steadily, and it is expected that the logs will mainly fluctuate [8]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR**: The US suspension of taxation on some countries supports the short - term rebound of oil prices. The load of domestic PX has continued to decline, and the PTA load has fluctuated. The raw materials of PTA have temporarily stopped falling, and the supply and demand of PTA are not bad in the short term. The domestic MEG load has decreased, and the port inventory has increased. The polyester load has rebounded. It is expected that these products will follow the oil price fluctuations [8]. - **PF**: The oil price has rebounded, but the terminal orders are insufficient, and the market sentiment is bearish. It is expected that the polyester staple fiber market will narrow - range consolidate in the near future [8]. - **Plastic, PP, PVC**: The cost of plastic and PP is affected by the rise in oil prices. The supply of plastic is under pressure, and the downstream start - up is recovering. The price of PP is affected by the cancellation of some tariffs and the rise in oil prices. The cost of PVC is stable, the upstream and downstream start - up has increased slightly, and the short - term inventory has decreased. It is expected that these products will fluctuate with a bullish bias [8][10].

Group 1 - The article highlights the concerns of merchants in Yiwu, the world's largest wholesale market, regarding the impact of the US-China trade war, particularly the recent announcement of a 50% tariff on Chinese goods by President Trump [1][2] - Merchants in Yiwu are shifting their focus away from the US market, with many reporting that their US customer base has decreased significantly, now accounting for less than 10% of their business [2] - The Chinese government is actively promoting market diversification, with only 15% of China's exports currently going to the US, down from 19% in 2017, indicating a strategic shift to reduce reliance on the US market [2] Group 2 - Economic analysts suggest that the proposed tariffs will ultimately burden American consumers more than they will impact China, with the self-damage to the US economy potentially exceeding any retaliatory measures from China [3] - Yiwu's trade statistics for 2024 show a significant increase in trade with regions outside the US, with 18% of trade with Africa, 17% with Latin America, and 10% with ASEAN countries, reflecting a clear trend towards diversifying export markets [2]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs initially predicted a 65% chance of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months but retracted this forecast shortly after [1] - Goldman Sachs has frequently revised its recession expectations, raising the probability from 20% to 35% just a week prior, and then to 45% [2] - Notable economist Nouriel Roubini believes the U.S. will avoid recession, suggesting that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates for the remainder of the year after tariff-related disputes ease [2] Group 2 - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warns that the economy is still in danger, criticizing the current administration's strategies and highlighting potential losses for middle-class families due to tariffs [2] - Market reactions have been volatile, with significant stock market gains following Trump's comments on tariffs, including a more than 9% rise in the Nasdaq and over 10% increases in stocks like Apple and Nvidia [1] - The Federal Reserve is under pressure to respond to economic impacts from new tariffs, with traders speculating on multiple rate cuts in the near future [2]

Apple CEO Tim Cook inspects the new iPhone 16 during an Apple special event at Apple headquarters on September 09, 2024 in Cupertino, California.Apple shares skyrocketed 15% on Wednesday after President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on his administration's "reciprocal tariffs," which would have affected the company's production locations in Vietnam, India, and Thailand.The rally added over $400 billion to Apple's market cap, which now stands just under $3 trillion. It was Apple's best day since Janu ...

这不是贸易谈判，这是敲诈勒索。特朗普嘴上说要"平衡贸易"，实际上却在用国家机器为特定行业开疆 扩土。他要的不是规则平等，而是霸权收益；他要的不是市场竞争，而是用威胁关税的方式逼迫盟友变 成"定向采购商"。 然而，更讽刺的是，这种做法发生在美国自己对全球所有主要贸易伙伴加征关税之后。4月2日，美国宣 布对全球商品全面加税，点燃了新一轮全球贸易战。而这场火刚刚点燃，特朗普就上演了"条件交换"， 乖乖掏钱买美国能源，就能在这场火里少烧一点。这种"我放火，你买灭火器"的套路，毫无公平可言， 却被特朗普吹嘘为"谈判艺术"。 而欧盟的回应也开始变得强硬。据悉，欧盟委员会已提议对包括美国产鸡蛋、香肠、钻石和牙线等商品 加征25%关税，涉及面之广、报复性之强史无前例。欧盟不仅不打算接受特朗普的"购买换豁免"交易， 反而准备在本月中旬启动新一轮对美反击。这种回击不是冲动，而是对特朗普式勒索的清醒应对——你 若强买强卖，我们就对等还击。 文丨陆弃 特朗普又出新招，不过这一次，他的交易逻辑已经不再遮掩——拿能源当人质，用关税做武器，逼迫欧 盟就范。据"政治新闻网"4月7日报道，特朗普公开喊话欧盟，称若想从其发动的全球关税战中获得豁 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing trade war between China and the US, suggesting that both sides are preparing for a prolonged conflict, with neither willing to back down in the short term [1][4]. - It highlights the potential for a temporary peak in tensions, followed by a return to negotiations where both parties may agree to reduce tariffs, with China possibly making larger concessions [1][3]. - The article emphasizes the internal factors that will determine the outcome of the trade war, such as the need for China to reform and open more sectors to private enterprises, and the importance of increasing labor income [2][3]. Group 2 - The article points out that the trade war may lead to different economic challenges for China and the US, with China facing overcapacity and potential deflation, while the US may struggle with undercapacity and inflation [5][11]. - It mentions that China's average working hours are strictly regulated, which could help reduce overcapacity by limiting production [5]. - The article also notes that the US economy may undergo significant restructuring in the long term, with a potential decline in the dollar's dominance and a shift towards a multipolar world [3][12]. Group 3 - The article draws historical parallels, referencing Napoleon's continental blockade as a cautionary tale about the consequences of economic isolationism [9][10]. - It suggests that while a complete breakdown in trade between China and the US could occur, both countries would still find alternative trading partners, similar to Russia's situation with Europe [11][12]. - The article concludes that the trade war could lead to increased domestic pressures for reform within China, as external challenges often prompt internal changes [8].

Industry Overview - The MedTech sector has emerged as a resilient investment option amid macroeconomic challenges, characterized by innovation and a rising demand for personalized healthcare solutions [6][8] - The global MedTech industry market is projected to grow to $694.70 billion by 2025, with an estimated year-over-year increase of approximately 4% [8] Market Dynamics - The medical device industry has historically been a reliable refuge during turbulent market periods, with investors currently prioritizing long-term stability over short-term gains [4] - Innovations in artificial intelligence, robotics, and minimally invasive techniques are expected to revolutionize healthcare services, increasing the demand for advanced medical equipment and diagnostic instruments [8] Company Highlights - **Fresenius Medical Care AG (FMS)**: A leading provider of products and services for dialysis patients, recently launched the NxStage Versi HD home dialysis machine, with over 14,000 U.S. patients using its system [10][11] - FMS has a Zacks Rank of 1 and a Value Score of A, with a P/E ratio of 11.36X, below the industry average of 23.48X, and is expected to see a 27.1% growth in earnings by 2025 [12] - **Phibro Animal Health (PAHC)**: A global diversified animal health company that recently acquired Zoetis Inc.'s product portfolio, enhancing its profitability and EBITDA margin [14][15] - PAHC holds a Zacks Rank of 1 and a Value Score of B, with a P/E of 9.88X, below the industry average of 15.56X, and is projected to achieve 63% growth in earnings by 2025 [16] - **Cencora, Inc. (COR)**: A major pharmaceutical services company that launched Accelerate Pharmacy Solutions and is expanding its leadership in specialty products through strategic acquisitions [17][18] - COR has a Zacks Rank of 2 and a Value Score of B, with a P/S ratio of 0.18X, significantly lower than the industry average of 1.29X, and is expected to see an 11.6% growth in earnings by 2025 [19]