Core Viewpoint - The China Convertible Bond Index reached a new high of over 438.92 points on June 24, marking the highest level since June 26, 2015, indicating a significant recovery in the convertible bond market [1] Group 1 - Since September of the previous year, the cumulative increase of the China Convertible Bond Index has exceeded 20%, signaling a technical bull market in the convertible bond sector [1]

日本央行审议委员田村直树：日本国债市场的功能已有所改善，但仍然偏低。 ...

日本央行审议摘要：一位成员表示，包括国际会议等场合在内，全球国债市场的形势已成为讨论的主要 议题之一，需关注海外市场动向可能蔓延至日本的可能性。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：国债市场在经历巨大压力下依然正常运作。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicates that the US dollar is expected to remain the reserve currency for an extended period, and the US Treasury market is functioning normally [1] Group 1 - The US dollar's status as a reserve currency is projected to persist for a long time [1] - The normal operation of the US Treasury market is highlighted [1]

Core Viewpoint - The first batch of private equity venture capital technology innovation bonds has been successfully issued, with a total scale of 1.35 billion yuan, featuring significantly extended maturities and lower interest rates compared to state-owned enterprise bonds [1] Group 1: Bond Characteristics - The bonds have a significantly extended maturity period, with the longest term reaching up to 10 years, compared to the typical 3 to 5 years for medium-term notes [1] - The issuance interest rates are notably lower than the coupon rates of similar state-owned enterprise bonds [1] Group 2: Market Impact - This issuance marks the first financing subject to the risk-sharing tools created by the central bank since the establishment of the "technology board" in the bond market [1] - The introduction of risk-sharing mechanisms and optimization of the funding transmission chain has initially achieved a linkage between equity, bonds, and loans [1] - The further expansion of issuing entities is expected to attract more participants to the bond market's "technology board," enriching the market ecosystem [1]

Market Overview - The bond market showed a weak consolidation on June 24, with the long-end driving an overall pullback in the curve, leading to a decline in government bond futures across the board [1] - The interbank bond yield rose by approximately 1 basis point, with a net injection of 209.2 billion yuan in the open market, and funding rates approaching the end of the month maintained an upward trend [1] Bond Futures and Yields - Government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.27% at 120.930, the 10-year down 0.11% at 109.025, the 5-year down 0.07% at 106.185, and the 2-year down 0.02% at 102.504 [2] - Major interbank interest rate bond yields generally increased, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.5 basis points to 1.645%, and the 30-year government bond yield up 1.25 basis points to 1.849% [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 2-year yield down 4.44 basis points to 3.855% and the 10-year yield down 2.75 basis points to 4.346% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 1.5 basis points to 1.424% [3] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all decreased, reflecting market expectations for easing policies from the European Central Bank [3] Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average winning yields for 91-day and 30-year government bonds at 1.2594% and 1.8477%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.87 and 5.37 [4] - The China Development Bank's 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year financial bonds had winning yields of 1.4541%, 1.5253%, and 1.6447%, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.78, 3.17, and 2.43 [4] Liquidity and Funding - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 406.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 209.2 billion yuan for the day [5] - Short-term Shibor rates mostly rose, with the overnight rate up 0.3 basis points to 1.37% and the 7-day rate up 13.2 basis points to 1.629% [5] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities noted that the 10-year government bond yield has recently broken below 1.65%, with long-term bonds like the 30-year and 50-year performing better, driven by institutional buying [7] - China International Capital Corporation suggested increasing allocations to 3-5 year bonds with relatively high coupons, while also considering trading opportunities in long-term bonds with good credit quality [7]

半年度报告-国债期货 因势利导，进退有度 国 债 期 债市对于经济形势已有充分认识，研究基本面的主要意义是判 断债市是否会出现趋势性转熊的风险。下半年，美国的财政政 策力度并未很强，在贸易摩擦的影响下，滞胀压力会逐渐显性 化。国内方面，外需和内需均存在着自发走弱的压力，财政发 力必要性凸显。财政以托底、转型为主，其应在 Q3 中后期 Q4 中前期温和发力，最终经济增速先降后升，波动整体不大。供 强于求的问题难以在短期内解决，通胀水平偏低运行。基本面 利多国债的格局不会发生变化，下半年中前期的利多会更明显 一点，但由于经济增速波动不大，通胀进一步下降的概率也不 高，基本面对于债市的进一步利多也有限。 货 ★货币与债市估值：相似的政策节奏，不同的心态与估值 货币政策与资金面对于债市的影响更为直接，其决定了债市的 节奏。稳汇率压力明显下降的背景下，货币政策整体的基调是 适度宽松的，8-9 月降息概率较高，流动性整体会处于偏宽松的 状态上，但是若利率快速下行，央行或将提示利率风险。Q3 政 策节奏和往年类似，但债市和过去今年存在多方面的差异：一 是心态更趋谨慎；二是负债端扰动不时出现，机构行为不如往 年积极；三是市场 ...

Group 1 - The overall bond market is showing a strong upward trend, supported by the need for economic growth and a stable liquidity environment, despite limited downward space for interest rates due to growth policies [1][7] - Economic fundamentals indicate weak domestic demand, which underpins the bond market's strength, with a mixed performance in production, consumption, investment, and exports [2][7] - The central bank's actions, including large-scale reverse repos, are maintaining a balanced and loose liquidity environment, which supports optimistic market expectations [4][7] Group 2 - Incremental policies are currently in an observation phase, focusing on existing policies and financial tools, with an emphasis on structural monetary policy rather than broad rate cuts [6] - The bond market's focus is shifting towards economic fundamentals and monetary policy changes, with expectations of limited interest rate declines and potential market corrections [7] - The market anticipates a strong performance in short-term and ultra-long-term bonds, with a cautious approach to potential adjustments [7]

Group 1 - The Japanese Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, emphasized the importance of monitoring the Japanese government bond market conditions [1] - The government will implement appropriate debt management measures in response to market developments [1]