1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 24, the liquidity was ample, with major repo rates hovering at low levels; the bond market showed a narrow - range oscillation; the convertible bond market's main indices followed the upward trend, and most convertible bond issues rose; yields on U.S. Treasuries of various maturities generally declined, and yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally decreased [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - President Xi Jinping had a phone call with U.S. President Trump, emphasizing that the Busan meeting had set the right course for China - U.S. relations, and both sides should maintain the positive momentum [3] - On November 25, the central bank conducted 100 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net injection of 10 billion yuan in November, marking the ninth consecutive month of increased roll - overs, in line with market expectations [3] - As of November 21, the issuance of science - innovation bonds in the inter - bank market exceeded 530 billion yuan, with the proportion of issuance scale exceeding 10% for the first time, 5 percentage points higher than before [4] 3.1.2 International News - On November 24, Fed Governor Waller and San Francisco Fed President Daly signaled dovish stances, with Waller advocating a rate cut at the next meeting and Daly supporting a December rate cut [5][6] 3.1.3 Commodities - On November 24, international crude oil futures prices turned up, while international natural gas prices turned down. WTI January crude oil futures rose 1.34% to $58.84 per barrel, Brent January crude oil futures rose 1.29% to $63.37 per barrel, COMEX December gold futures rose 0.36% to $4094.2 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 1.55% to $4.506 per ounce [7] 3.2 Liquidity 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On November 24, the central bank conducted 338.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 55.7 billion yuan as 283 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day [9] 3.2.2 Funding Rates - On November 24, the liquidity was ample, with major repo rates hovering at low levels. DR001 dropped 0.22bp to 1.319%, and DR007 rose 2.95bp to 1.470% [10] 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - rate Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On November 24, the bond market showed a narrow - range oscillation with lower trading volume. By 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250016 dropped 0.05bp to 1.8120%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active issue 250215 remained flat at 1.8740% [13] - **Bond Tendering Results**: Information on the tendering of multiple bonds including 25贴现国债72, 25附息国债23, etc., was provided, covering details such as term, issuance scale, winning yield, and bid - to - cover ratios [14] 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - **Secondary - market Transaction Anomalies**: On November 24, no credit bond transaction prices deviated by more than 10% [15] - **Credit Bond Events**: Multiple companies such as Fanhai Holdings, Fangyuan Real Estate, and Baolong Industry had bond - related events including non - payment, extension of redemption dates, and holder meetings [16] 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On November 24, the A - share market rose, with over 4200 stocks increasing. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rose 0.05%, 0.37%, and 0.31% respectively. The convertible bond market also rebounded, with the CSI Convertible Bond, Shanghai Convertible Bond, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond indices rising 0.22%, 0.14%, and 0.34% respectively [17] - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: News such as the approval of Shang Sheng Electronics' convertible bond issuance and the possible early redemption of Nenghui Convertible Bond were reported [24] 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - **U.S. Treasury Market**: On November 24, yields on U.S. Treasuries of various maturities generally declined. The 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 5bp to 3.46%, and the 10 - year yield dropped 2bp to 4.04%. The 2/10 - year U.S. Treasury yield spread widened by 3bp to 58bp, and the 5/30 - year spread narrowed by 2bp to 107bp [20][21] - **European Bond Market**: On November 24, yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally declined, except for Germany and Spain where yields remained unchanged [23] - **Price Changes of Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds**: Price changes of Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds of multiple companies such as Ctrip Group, Pinduoduo, and iQiyi were presented, including daily changes, credit entities, bond balances, and other information [25]

01 谜题尽解，尚待新局——2026年债市年度策略报告 16:00-17:00 核心看点： 2026年债市走向？货币政策宽松空间是否依然有限？面对基本面改善与微观体感疲软 的矛盾，债市将如何抉择？当资本利得惯性遭遇有限票息，是坚守久期还是转向票息策略？明年债 市是否真的只能"小幅看多"，且逆向布局优于顺势而为？ 嘉宾： 杜渐 丨浙商证券固收首席分析师 扫码预约 02 03 中信建投 | 科技团队联合展望 - 2026年度策略报告汇报会议之四 20:00-21:00 核心看点： 2026年科技投资的主线是否仍由AI引领？面对"无就业增长"的降息周期，机遇与挑战 如何分化？中国AI能否凭借其庞大的应用市场、世界级的模型层与自主硬件的快速迭代实现系统性 重估？在算力端，散热、PCB、电源等方向是否蕴含确定性机会？国产芯片会否迎来订单倾斜与集 中度提升？而AI应用商业化、计算机领域的国产化、量子科技及智驾等高景气赛道，又将是下一轮 行情的关键吗？ 嘉宾： 于芳博丨中信建投证券人工智能首席分析师 应瑛丨中信建投证券计算机首席分析师 崔世峰丨中信建投证券海外研究首席分析师 杨伟松丨中信建投证券科技前瞻首席分析师 扫码预约 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Report's Core View - In October, broad funds significantly increased their holdings of negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs). The total bond custody scale increased by 1.31 trillion yuan month-on-month to 176.8 trillion yuan, with NCD custody scale up 7214 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly driven by broad funds. [2][10][77] - There is uncertainty about the Fed's rate cut in December. The US added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, higher than market expectations. The 9 - month non - farm data may be more accurate, and the unemployment rate was 4.4%. As of November 23 noon Beijing time, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December is 71%. [2][23][77] - The current bond market has prominent allocation value, with bond yields likely to decline in a volatile manner. The report is bullish on the bond market, predicting that the 10Y Treasury yield will return to around 1.65% this year. [4][78] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro News - In October, the total bond custody scale increased by 1.31 trillion yuan month - on - month to 176.8 trillion yuan, with the increase mainly from Shanghai Clearing House. NCDs were the main driver of the increase, with broad funds as the major buyers. [10] - On November 21, the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China announced that savings bonds (electronic) will be included in the scope of personal pension products starting from June 2026. [23] 2. Medium - term High - frequency Data 2.1 Consumption - As of November 16, the daily average retail volume of passenger car manufacturers decreased by 9.2% year - on - year, and the daily average wholesale volume decreased by 5.4% year - on - year. As of November 21, the 7 - day national movie box office revenue increased by 74.8% year - on - year. As of November 7, the total retail volume of three major household appliances decreased by 21.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales decreased by 34.6% year - on - year. [25][30] 2.2 Transportation - Affected by Double 11, freight activity remained high. As of November 16, the weekly port container throughput increased by 3.1% year - on - year. As of November 21, the 7 - day average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities increased by 5.4% year - on - year. The weekly postal express pick - up volume increased by 8.9% year - on - year, and the delivery volume increased by 5.8% year - on - year. The weekly railway freight volume and highway truck traffic volume increased by 5.3% year - on - year. [32][36] 2.3 Industrial Operating Rates - As of November 19, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises increased by 0.5 percentage points year - on - year. As of November 20, the average asphalt operating rate decreased by 5.0 percentage points year - on - year. The soda ash operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points year - on - year, and the PVC operating rate increased by 1.4 percentage points year - on - year. [38][43] 2.4 Real Estate - As of November 21, the 7 - day total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 16.2% year - on - year. As of November 16, the number of land transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 41.3% year - on - year. [46][49] 2.5 Prices - As of November 21, most prices recovered month - on - month. The average pork wholesale price decreased by 24.4% year - on - year but increased by 1.3% compared to 4 weeks ago. The average price of northern port thermal coal decreased by 0.7% year - on - year but increased by 11.9% compared to 4 weeks ago. [50] 3. Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On November 21, short - term rates mostly declined. Treasury yields mostly increased, with the 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year Treasury yields at 1.40%/1.59%/1.82%/2.16% respectively, up 0.9BP/0.2BP/1.0BP compared to November 14 (except for the 1 - year, which decreased by 0.5BP). The US, Japanese, British, and German 10 - year Treasury yields were 4.06%, 1.78%, 4.55%, and 2.76% respectively, down 8BP/up 8BP/down 2BP/down 3BP compared to November 14. The US dollar - RMB central parity rate and spot exchange rate increased by 50/96 pips compared to November 14. [58][60][69] 4. Institutional Behavior - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for interest - rate bonds has shown a trend of first declining, then rising, and then declining. As of November 21, the estimated average duration was about 4.9 years, and the median was about 4.4 years, down 0.02/up 0.18 years compared to November 14. The duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for credit bonds has shown a volatile trend, and has declined this week. The estimated average duration was about 2.1 years, and the median was about 2.0 years, down 0.07 years compared to November 14. [73][74] 5. Investment Suggestions - The report is bullish on the bond market. Due to domestic economic pressure, falling housing prices, and high short - term interest rates, there is a significant need to cut policy rates. With the Fed's rate - cut cycle, policy rates may be cut by 20BP in the next six months. The report predicts that the 10Y Treasury yield will return to around 1.65% this year, the 30Y Treasury yield to 1.9%, and the 5Y secondary capital bonds of large banks to 1.9%. [4][78]

| | 11/25 待定 美国9月PPI | | --- | --- | | 重点关注 | 11/26 21:30 美国第三季度GDP修正值、10月份个人收入、支出及PCE价格指数 | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：T为10年期国债期货，TF为5年期国债期货，TS为2年期国债期货 研究员： 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 免责声明 国债期货日报 2025/11/24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 项目 最新 | | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.505 | 0.06% T主力成交量 | 79246 | -23755↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.890 | 0.03% TF主力成交量 | 46495 | -17953↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.460 | 0.01% TS主力成交量 | 23207 | -6065↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 115.760 | 0.15% TL主 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of not getting caught up in daily market fluctuations, as shorter time frames exhibit greater randomness and less meaningful reference points [1]. Group 1: Market Overview - The stock market experienced slight fluctuations with a minor increase, while the central bank continued to inject liquidity through a 1000 billion MLF operation [5]. - The central bank conducted a net injection of 2557 billion through reverse repos and cash deposits, indicating a balanced and slightly loose liquidity environment [3]. - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated within a narrow range of 1.809% to 1.813%, reflecting stable market sentiment [5]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Bond Market - The weighted average rates for various repo codes showed minimal changes, with R001 at 1.39% and R007 at 1.56%, indicating a stable interest rate environment [4]. - The article notes that the bond market is experiencing a narrow range of interest rate fluctuations, with a slight decrease of 0.2 basis points in rates causing mixed reactions among investors [6]. - The government bond yields for different maturities, such as 1Y at 1.4025% and 10Y at 1.8130%, reflect the current market conditions and investor sentiment [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. Core View of the Report In the third week of November, the scope of construction shutdown in the north accelerated its expansion, showing the characteristics of weak supply and demand for investment products. Both new and second - hand housing transactions followed seasonal trends, with the former showing a slight stabilization. In terms of inflation, food prices changed from rising to falling, and the drag from pork and vegetable prices increased. In the export sector, container shipping prices continued to diverge, with SCFI weakening and CCFI remaining strong. Port transportation volume weakened compared to the previous week, indicating the impact of the off - season. In the investment field, the decline in cement prices continued to widen. The apparent demand for rebar improved and inventory clearance accelerated, mainly due to supply contraction. In the real estate sector, new housing sales recovered seasonally, while second - hand housing sales continued to weaken, and both showed year - on - year negative growth. For the bond market, the impact of fundamental factors on the bond market further weakened under the influence of the off - season. Policy expectations for the current year were not strong, and the market focused on the possibility of "front - loaded efforts" in the next year. [3][33] Summary by Directory Weekly High - Frequency Tracking: Export Cargo Volume Maintains Resilience Inflation - Related: Food Prices Decline Food prices decreased slightly. From November 15th to 22nd, the average wholesale price of pork in China decreased by 0.74% week - on - week, and vegetable prices decreased by 1.32% week - on - week, both weaker than the previous week. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products decreased by 0.09% and 0.08% week - on - week respectively, changing from rising to falling. [8] Import and Export - Related: Container Shipping Prices Diverge, SCFI Continues to Weaken The decline of SCFI widened, while CCFI continued to rise. This week, the CCFI index increased by 2.6% week - on - week, and SCFI decreased by 4.0% week - on - week. The container transportation market was basically stable, and the freight rates in the ocean - going routes showed an adjustment trend. In the North American routes, the growth of transportation demand was weak, and freight rates continued to decline. From November 10th to 16th, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports decreased by 5.4% and 1.1% week - on - week respectively. This week, they increased by 3.1% and 0.4% year - on - year respectively, continuing to weaken compared to the previous week under the influence of the off - season. The increases of BDI and CDFI indexes further expanded. [11] Industry - Related: Most Production Operating Rates Continue to Decline - Coal price increase significantly narrowed. This week, the price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 0.26% week - on - week, with a significant narrowing of the increase. - Rebar price increase widened. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) increased by 1.2% week - on - week. - Asphalt operating rate accelerated its decline. This week, the operating rate of asphalt plants decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% week - on - week, a 7.0% year - on - year decrease. - Copper price changed from rising to falling. This week, the average prices of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Copper and LME Copper both decreased by about 0.9% week - on - week. - The decline of glass futures prices widened. This week, the market trading sentiment was cold, and most manufacturers continued to sell at reduced prices. [13][15][20] Investment - Related: New Housing Sales Slightly Stabilize, Second - Hand Housing Sales Weaken - Cement price decline slightly widened. This week, the weekly average of the national cement price index decreased by 0.62% week - on - week. - New housing sales seasonally stabilized. From November 14th to 20th, the transaction area of new houses in 30 cities was 1.936 million square meters, a 22.5% week - on - week increase and a 23% year - on - year decrease. - Second - hand housing sales slightly declined. From last Friday to this Thursday, second - hand housing sales decreased by 3.8% week - on - week and 7.6% year - on - year. [25][27] Consumption: Passenger Car Retail Sales in Mid - and Early November Continue to Decline - Passenger car retail sales in mid - and early November showed a year - on - year negative growth. From November 1st to 16th, the national retail sales of the passenger car market were 886,000 vehicles, a 14% decrease compared to the same period last November and a 6% decrease compared to the same period last month. - Crude oil price changed from rising to falling. As of November 21st, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices decreased by 2.8% and 3.4% week - on - week respectively, weaker than the previous week. [28][32]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 300 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on November 20, with a fixed interest rate of 1.40% and a total bid amount of 300 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 110 billion yuan for the day after accounting for 190 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market saw a loosening of funding conditions, with major term repurchase rates declining. The overnight repurchase rate for deposit-taking institutions fell over 5 basis points to around 1.36%, while the overnight quotes on the anonymous X-repo system dropped significantly to 1.35% [3] - There is abundant overnight funding supply, with non-bank institutions borrowing overnight funds at around 1.50%. The end of tax period impacts has led to a recovery in funding conditions, with expectations for further declines in short-term rates [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is at 1.64%, showing a slight increase from the previous day [7] Group 4: Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed a decline in the 30-year main contract by 0.21%, while the 10-year and 5-year main contracts increased by 0.06% each, and the 2-year contract remained unchanged [11] Group 5: LPR and Regulatory Developments - The November LPR remained stable at 3% for the one-year rate and 3.5% for the five-year and above categories. The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the need for stronger institutional frameworks and risk prevention measures during a recent meeting [12] Group 6: Global Macro Developments - Japan plans to introduce a new spending plan amounting to 17.7 trillion yen, necessitating the issuance of more bonds to raise funds. The Japanese Finance Minister highlighted the challenges of balancing inflation, bond yields, and a weak yen [14] Group 7: Bond Market Events - The Export-Import Bank plans to auction up to 2 billion yuan of 3-year floating rate bonds on November 21. The bond market's "technology board" remains active, with a cumulative issuance scale of nearly 1.5 trillion yuan this year [16]

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] - Team: Macro Financial Team [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report Core View - The negative factors in the bond market have basically been released, and November has entered a stage of accumulating positive factors. The bond market environment has improved. Considering the central bank's bond - purchasing and the slowdown of economic momentum, there is support at the bottom of treasury bond futures. Investors should seize the opportunity to lay out positions at low prices. In the short term, weak economic data and the passing of the tax - payment peak may boost the market's expectation of monetary easing and reduce disturbances to the bond market [11][12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Condition**: Affected by the tightening of inter - bank funds and stock market fluctuations, the sentiment in the bond market was weak, and treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The yields of major inter - bank interest - bearing bonds changed narrowly, with the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 rising 0.3bp to 1.8080%. The money market was tight in the morning and gradually loosened in the afternoon. The central bank achieved a net injection of 1.15 billion yuan. The weighted overnight interest rate of inter - bank deposits fell 10.64bp to 1.4221%, and the 7 - day rate fell 1.08bp to 1.5131%. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.62 - 1.64% [8][9][10] - **Conclusion**: Since June, domestic economic indicators have continued to weaken. Exports turned negative in October, and price indicators remained low. Currently, loose monetary and fiscal policies are being strengthened. The restart of treasury bond trading brings direct buying demand to the bond market. The impact of wide - credit effects on the bond market should be limited. The bond market's negative factors have basically been released, and it is in a stage of accumulating positive factors. Although there are still some uncertain disturbances, overall, the bond market environment has improved, and investors should seize the opportunity to lay out positions at low prices [11][12] 3.2 Industry News - Diplomatic events: The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs was dissatisfied with the results of the Sino - Japanese consultation, and the Chinese side demanded that Japan correct its wrong remarks. The US modified the transparency rules for patent invalidation applications, which was a discriminatory restriction on Chinese enterprises, and the Chinese side would closely monitor the situation [13] - Domestic policies: The Chinese Premier called for free trade and strengthened cooperation within the SCO. Local financial departments are actively deploying the reserve work for special bond projects in 2026, and multiple "two - major" construction projects have started, which is expected to maintain a moderate growth rate of infrastructure investment [13][14] 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Presented the trading data of treasury bond futures on November 19, including contract details such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, and open interest [6] - **Money Market**: Included the changes in SHIBOR term structure and trend, and the changes in inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate and inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase rate [28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: Showed the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixed - rate curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixed - rate curve (mean) [34]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in interest rate bonds have been observed, while credit bonds have performed well due to some banks redeeming interest rate bond funds. The new redemption fee regulation has not yet been implemented, affecting bank investment funds, which remain cautious [1] Group 1: Market Overview - The estimated total scale of the market's financial products is 34 trillion yuan, with a low proportion of bond holdings and short durations, coupled with strong growth in financial product scales, supporting the performance of credit bonds [1] - There is a continued bullish outlook on 5-year capital bonds, despite previous bearish sentiments towards the bond market based on expectations of a continuing bull market in stocks [1] Group 2: Future Expectations - The general consensus anticipates the Shanghai Composite Index to reach 5000 points by 2026; however, without performance support, this could lead to increased sell-offs, as valuations are at historical highs, making the sustainability of the bull market uncertain [1] - The bond market is expected to remain favorable, awaiting the implementation of the new redemption fee regulation, which could lead to a significant downward adjustment in policy interest rates [1]

国债期货日报 2025/11/19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 66875 | 108.425 | -0.06% T主力成交量 | | 3202↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 54572 | 105.880 | -0.03% TF主力成交量 | | 2656↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 28995 | 102.462 | -0.03% TS主力成交量 | | -5728↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 100953 | 116.090 | -0.41% TL主力成交量 | | 11525↑ | | 期货价差 | TL2512-2603价差 | 0.23 | +0.01↑ T12-TL12价差 | -7.67 | 0.36↑ | | | T2512-2603价差 | 0.26 | +0.01↑ TF12-T12价差 | -2.55 | 0.03↑ | | | TF2512-2603价差 | 0.02 | -0.02↓ TS12-T12价差 | -5.96 ...