【大河财立方 记者 秦龙】2025年对于债券市场而言，是挑战与机遇并存的一年。这一年，债券市场告 别相对"躺赢"，步入高波动震荡期。同时，政策与机制的进一步优化，创新品种与新型工具的持续推 出，也为经济高质量发展提供了坚实支撑。 年终岁尾，大河财立方记者梳理2025债市领域关键词，既是对过去一年的回顾，也是对来年债券市场趋 势的探寻。 关键词一 地方化债 2025年，中国计划发行总额为2.8万亿元的专项债券用于化解地方政府隐性债务，其中，2万亿元为用于 置换隐性债务的再融资专项债，8000亿元为用于化债的特殊新增专项债。此外，10月17日，财政部宣 布，中央财政从地方政府债务结存限额中安排5000亿元下达地方，该部分结存限额一方面持续助力化 债，另一方面支持投资建设；其中，专门用于支持部分省份投资建设专项债券额度为2000亿元。 关键词二 债务管理司成立 2025年11月，财政部债务管理司的正式亮相，被外界认为政府债务多头管理的局面得到改善。从其主要 职责来看，债务司主要负责中央和地方政府债务有关管理、国债和地方政府债务余额限额、政府债务监 测监管、防范化解隐性债务风险以及外债管理等工作。 关键词三 债市"科 ...

Market Overview - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 141.7 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40% on November 7, resulting in a net withdrawal of 213.4 billion yuan for the day, with a total net withdrawal of 157.22 billion yuan for the week [2][4] - The interbank market showed a convergence in funding supply, with overnight repurchase rates slightly rising to around 1.33% [4] - The latest one-year interbank certificates of deposit traded at approximately 1.63%, showing a slight increase from the previous day [6] Bond Market - Major interest rates on interbank bonds mostly increased, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [8] - The main contracts for government bonds collectively declined, with the 30-year contract down by 0.15% and the 10-year contract down by 0.09% [10] Trade and Economic Data - In the first ten months of the year, China's total import and export value reached 37.31 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%, with exports in October showing a decline of 0.8% year-on-year [11] - The State Council issued opinions to accelerate the cultivation of new application scenarios, aiming to leverage China's large market and diverse application scenarios to support economic development [11] Foreign Exchange and Reserves - As of the end of October, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at 33,433 billion USD, an increase of 47 billion USD from the end of September [12] - The current account surplus for the third quarter of 2025 was reported at 13,948 billion yuan, with a goods trade surplus of 19,213 billion yuan [12] Bond Issuance and Events - The "Technology Board" in the bond market has seen an issuance scale of 1.38 trillion yuan over the past six months [16] - Notable bond issuance events include the successful issuance of 235 billion new Taiwan dollar bonds by TSMC at a 5-year interest rate of 1.5% [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The second batch of 14 Science - and - Technology Innovation Bond ETFs were submitted on August 20, 2025. With policy support, the second batch is expected to be launched soon. The Science - and - Technology Innovation Bond ETFs have shown rapid scale growth and good liquidity since their listing, and are expected to thrive in the future [1][10]. - The second batch of Science - and - Technology Innovation Bond ETFs will introduce incremental funds to the market, enhancing the liquidity of the underlying bonds and potentially lowering their yields. However, the short - term decline may be limited due to various disturbances. It is recommended to focus on the post - adjustment allocation opportunities of 1 - 3 - year medium - to - high - grade Science - and - Technology Innovation Bond index underlying bonds [1][29]. - The stock market was strong last week, suppressing the bond market. Credit bond yields increased across the board, and the net issuance of corporate - type credit bonds decreased, while that of financial - type credit bonds increased significantly [2][3]. - In the secondary market, trading of medium - and - short - duration bonds was active, and the proportion of long - duration bond trading increased slightly [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Credit Hotspots - On August 20, 2025, the second batch of 14 Science - and - Technology Innovation Bond ETFs were submitted, with 10 tracking the CSI AAA Science - and - Technology Innovation Corporate Bond Index, 3 tracking the Shanghai Stock Exchange AAA Science - and - Technology Innovation Corporate Bond Index, and 1 tracking the Shenzhen Stock Exchange AAA Science - and - Technology Innovation Corporate Bond Index. Referring to the approval process of the first batch, the second batch is likely to be launched soon [10]. - Since the first batch of Science - and - Technology Innovation Bond ETFs were listed, they have become the second - largest type of credit bond ETFs. As of August 22, 2025, the scale of credit bond ETFs was 348.3 billion yuan, and the Science - and - Technology Innovation Bond ETFs accounted for 34.6% with a scale of 120.4 billion yuan [11]. - The Science - and - Technology Innovation Bond ETFs have shown good liquidity since their listing. From July 17 to August 22, the average daily trading volume fluctuated between 18 - 106 billion yuan, and the average daily turnover rate was 46.48% [15]. - The net value of Science - and - Technology Innovation Bond ETFs has experienced two rounds of adjustments. As of August 22, compared with the listing date on July 17, the average decline of the net value of 10 Science - and - Technology Innovation Bond ETFs was 0.43% [19]. - With policy support, increased supply of Science - and - Technology Innovation Bonds, and the launch of the repurchase business, the Science - and - Technology Innovation Bond ETFs are expected to develop well. The second batch of ETFs will enhance the liquidity of the underlying bonds and lower their yields, but the short - term decline may be limited [27][29]. Market Review - From August 15 to August 22, 2025, the stock market was strong, suppressing the bond market. Credit bond yields increased across the board, with most medium - and long - term yields rising by more than 6BP, and medium - and short - term credit bonds being relatively resilient. The yields of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds also increased by 4 - 8BP [2][34]. - Last week, bond funds were redeemed, with net sales of 13.3 billion yuan, while wealth management products had net purchases of 19.3 billion yuan. The scale of credit bond ETFs was 348.3 billion yuan, up 1.7% from the previous week [2]. - The median spreads of public bonds of AAA - rated entities in various industries generally increased by 2 - 6BP, and the median spreads of urban investment bonds in each province increased across the board, with Inner Mongolia, Chongqing, and Liaoning seeing increases of more than 6BP [2][34]. Primary Issuance - From August 18 to August 22, 2025, the total issuance of corporate - type credit bonds was 235 billion yuan, a 21% decrease from the previous period, with a net repayment of 64.1 billion yuan. The total issuance of financial - type credit bonds was 120.4 billion yuan, a 142% increase from the previous period, with a net financing of 61.9 billion yuan [3][60]. - Among corporate - type credit bonds, urban investment bonds issued 101.8 billion yuan with a net repayment of 21.6 billion yuan, and industrial bonds issued 126.6 billion yuan with a net repayment of 37 billion yuan [3][60]. - The average issuance rates of medium - and short - term notes and corporate bonds mostly showed an upward trend [3][60]. Secondary Trading - Active trading entities are mainly medium - to - high - grade, medium - and short - term, and central and state - owned enterprises [4][71]. - For urban investment bonds, active trading entities are from strong economic and financial provinces like Jiangsu and Guangdong, and high - spread areas in large economic provinces. For real - estate bonds and private - enterprise bonds, active trading entities are mostly AAA - rated, with trading terms mostly in the medium - and short - term [4][71]. - Among actively traded urban investment bonds, the proportion of bonds with a maturity of more than 5 years increased slightly from 0% to 4% compared with the previous week [4][71].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the "Technology Board" in the bond market has achieved significant milestones within its first hundred days, with a total issuance of 739 technology innovation bonds amounting to 926.13 billion yuan, reflecting a collaborative innovation effort among financial regulatory bodies, infrastructure, and market participants [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The interbank market has dominated the issuance of technology innovation bonds, accounting for 62.14% of the total issuance, with 5,755.77 billion yuan issued [2]. - Commercial banks have been particularly active, with 32 commercial banks and 2 policy banks issuing a total of 2,413 billion yuan in technology innovation bonds [2]. - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges have also contributed, with a total issuance of 3,467.01 billion yuan in technology innovation corporate bonds, primarily directed towards sectors like chip design, biomedicine, and artificial intelligence [2]. Group 2: Bond Issuance Characteristics - The issuance structure of technology innovation bonds has shown a significant lengthening of maturity, with over 75% of bonds having a maturity of more than 3 years, and over 30% exceeding 5 years [4][5]. - This maturity design addresses the long-cycle characteristics of technology research and development, providing stable funding for hard technology projects [5]. Group 3: Financial Innovation Tools - Over 300 of the issued bonds have special clauses, and nearly 60 have introduced innovative credit enhancement measures, such as credit risk mitigation certificates (CRMW) [6]. - These tools have been instrumental in reducing investor concerns by sharing 30%-50% of default risks, especially for technology companies with insufficient credit ratings [6]. - The use of blockchain technology has also been highlighted, with the issuance of the first blockchain-based technology board bond, ensuring traceability of funds [6][7]. Group 4: Evolving Investor Landscape - The investor structure for technology board bonds is changing, with insurance fund allocations increasing from 22% at the beginning of the year to 35% [8]. - The rapid growth of technology board bond ETFs indicates a strong interest from long-term funds, with the first ETF surpassing 100 billion yuan in just five trading days [8]. Group 5: Future Directions - The People's Bank of China has emphasized the need for optimizing the technology board mechanism and innovating risk-sharing tools [8][9]. - There are ongoing discussions about establishing a dual-track system for technology and credit ratings to better assess the value of technology companies [9]. - The development of innovative financing tools is expected to enhance the financing ecosystem for technology enterprises, addressing the historical imbalance between equity and debt financing [9].

Group 1 - The credit bond market is expected to recover, with a forecasted issuance volume of approximately 16.3-16.7 trillion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 3%-6% [4][48][49] - The issuance of innovative products, particularly in the technology and green sectors, is accelerating, with technology bonds surpassing 1 trillion yuan in issuance, growing by 29.88% year-on-year [16][20] - The financing environment for private enterprises remains challenging, with only 1,400 billion yuan issued in the first quarter, accounting for just 3.62% of the total credit bonds [27][28] Group 2 - The first quarter saw a contraction in total credit bond issuance, with a total of 3.65 trillion yuan issued, a decrease of 2,104.14 billion yuan year-on-year [6][12] - The structure of credit bond issuance is shifting towards medium to long-term bonds, with those over three years accounting for nearly 40% of the total issuance [12][20] - The real estate sector continues to have the highest credit spread, at 84 basis points, indicating ongoing challenges despite some signs of recovery [45][46] Group 3 - The secondary market experienced a tightening of liquidity, with total credit bond transactions decreasing by 4.48% year-on-year to 12.92 trillion yuan [34] - The yield on 10-year government bonds rose from 1.60% at the beginning of the year to 1.90% by mid-March, reflecting market volatility [37][40] - Credit spreads narrowed across various industries, with most sectors experiencing a reduction in spreads, particularly in technology and transportation [43][45]

Core Insights - In June, a total of 1,003 debt financing instruments were registered and issued, amounting to 9,308 billion yuan, representing a 67% increase compared to May [1][2] - The issuance of various short-term financing instruments included 2,825 billion yuan in ultra-short-term financing, 300 billion yuan in short-term financing, 5,121 billion yuan in medium-term notes, 515 billion yuan in directed tools, and 547 billion yuan in asset-backed notes [1][2] Group 1: Debt Financing Instruments - The total issuance of debt financing tools in June reached 9,308 billion yuan, with a significant increase from the previous month [1][2] - The breakdown of issuance includes 2,825 billion yuan in ultra-short-term financing, 300 billion yuan in short-term financing, 5,121 billion yuan in medium-term notes, 515 billion yuan in directed tools, and 547 billion yuan in asset-backed notes [1][2] Group 2: Innovative Products - In June, the issuance of sci-tech notes and bonds amounted to 1,011 billion yuan, indicating the growing influence of the "technology board" in the bond market [2][3] - Other innovative products such as green debt financing tools, asset-backed commercial papers, and rural revitalization notes had issuance volumes of 292 billion yuan, 153 billion yuan, and 61 billion yuan respectively [2][3] Group 3: Market Trends - As of the end of June, the cumulative issuance of panda bonds in the interbank market reached 7,868 billion yuan, with a custody volume of 2,628 billion yuan [3] - The custody volumes for various financing instruments as of June 30 included 16,138 billion yuan for ultra-short-term financing, 5,117 billion yuan for short-term financing, 121,575 billion yuan for medium-term notes, 19,946 billion yuan for directed debt financing tools, and 6,798 billion yuan for asset-backed notes [3] Group 4: Holder Distribution - Non-legal person products accounted for the majority of holdings in various tools, with a total holding scale of 109,074 billion yuan, representing 65.06% of the total [4] - Deposit-taking financial institutions and non-bank financial institutions held 40,395 billion yuan and 11,610 billion yuan respectively, ranking second and third in terms of holdings [4][5]

Group 1 - The establishment of the first quantum chip production line in Hefei and the 2 billion yuan "Science and Technology Innovation Loan" supporting GuoDun Quantum highlights the critical role of financial engines in driving technological innovation and economic growth [1] - The launch of the bond market technology board aims to provide financial support for technology enterprises, with a focus on issuing technology innovation bonds by financial institutions and private equity investment firms [1][2] - China's investment in research and development (R&D) is projected to reach 36,130 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 8.3% increase from the previous year, positioning the country as the second-largest R&D investor globally [2] Group 2 - The efficiency of organizing R&D funds can be improved, as exemplified by Huawei's 2024 revenue of 862.1 billion yuan and R&D expenditure of 179.7 billion yuan, which constitutes 20.8% of its total revenue [3] - The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei National Technology Innovation Center aims to enhance the growth engine of technological innovation by fostering a collaborative innovation system that integrates research, industry cultivation, and talent development [4] - The bond market technology board has broken down financing barriers, allowing for a more flexible and tailored approach to financing for technology enterprises, which often lack collateral and profitability [5][6] Group 3 - Since the launch of the bond market technology board on May 7, 2024, 506 technology innovation bonds have been issued, with a total issuance scale of 702.378 billion yuan by July 15 [5] - Approximately 90% of the issuers of technology innovation bonds in 2024 are state-owned enterprises, but the proportion of private and public enterprises has approached 20% since the board's establishment [6] - The bond market technology board not only signals strong governmental support for hard technology but also aims to stimulate innovation among private enterprises and promote the deep integration of technology and capital [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the launch and significance of the "Penghua Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF," emphasizing its role in supporting technological innovation and providing a standardized investment tool for investors in the bond market [5][22]. Summary by Sections Introduction to Science and Technology Bonds - The Science and Technology Bond market in China began in 2016 and has rapidly expanded, reaching a market size of over one trillion yuan by 2022. The introduction of the "Technology Board" concept by the central bank in March 2023 further accelerated this growth [5][6]. Characteristics of Science and Technology Bond ETF - The Science and Technology Bond ETF aims to track the performance of a bond index specifically for technology innovation companies, providing investors with a convenient tool to participate in this market [8][9]. Index Composition and Selection Criteria - The core selection criteria for the index include "technology innovation attributes," focusing on industries such as high-tech and strategic emerging sectors, with stringent requirements for credit quality [9][10]. Performance and Risk Management - The ETF is designed to provide lower risk for investors while maintaining a focus on high-quality bonds, with 99% of the index constituents being state-owned enterprises [14][20]. Market Impact and Liquidity - The introduction of the ETF is expected to enhance market liquidity for technology innovation company bonds, facilitating easier access for investors and promoting healthy market development [5][22]. Investment Strategy and Management - The ETF employs a dual fund manager model to leverage expertise in both research and operational management, enhancing its ability to respond to market changes and manage risks effectively [29][30]. Fund Overview - The Penghua Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF is managed by a team with extensive experience in fixed income investments, aiming to maintain a tracking deviation of less than 0.2% and an annual tracking error of less than 2% [35][36].

Core Viewpoint - The first batch of private equity venture capital technology innovation bonds has been successfully issued, with a total scale of 1.35 billion yuan, featuring significantly extended maturities and lower interest rates compared to state-owned enterprise bonds [1] Group 1: Bond Characteristics - The bonds have a significantly extended maturity period, with the longest term reaching up to 10 years, compared to the typical 3 to 5 years for medium-term notes [1] - The issuance interest rates are notably lower than the coupon rates of similar state-owned enterprise bonds [1] Group 2: Market Impact - This issuance marks the first financing subject to the risk-sharing tools created by the central bank since the establishment of the "technology board" in the bond market [1] - The introduction of risk-sharing mechanisms and optimization of the funding transmission chain has initially achieved a linkage between equity, bonds, and loans [1] - The further expansion of issuing entities is expected to attract more participants to the bond market's "technology board," enriching the market ecosystem [1]

Core Insights - The launch of the "Technology Board" in the bond market on May 7 has generated significant interest, with over 190 technology innovation bonds issued by June 6, totaling approximately 374.5 billion yuan [1][2] - The market consensus is that the scale of the "Technology Board" will continue to expand, with expectations for more small and medium-sized private technology enterprises to enter the market [1][4] - The introduction of innovative bond types and risk-sharing mechanisms is essential to attract long-term capital and support the financing needs of technology enterprises [2][3] Market Overview - As of June 6, the total issuance includes 2.958 billion yuan from the interbank market and approximately 787 million yuan from the exchange market [1] - There are 32 technology innovation bonds currently in the issuance process, with a proposed issuance scale of 475.5 million yuan [1] - The average coupon rate for technology innovation bonds is 1.95%, with an average maturity of 3.3 years, indicating a trend towards longer-term financing [5][6] Issuer Diversity - The "Technology Board" features a diverse range of issuers, including financial institutions, technology companies, private equity, and venture capital firms, creating a comprehensive financing chain for technology innovation [2][7] - Financial institutions have played a significant role, accounting for approximately 60% of the total issuance, with a focus on supporting private technology enterprises [7][8] Innovation in Bond Products - The market has introduced various innovative bond products, such as intellectual property pledge bonds and green bonds, to meet the diverse financing needs of technology enterprises [2][3] - The flexibility in setting bond terms, including options for equity conversion and interest rate linkage to project performance, enhances the attractiveness of these bonds [3][4] Future Expectations - There is a strong expectation for increased participation from private technology enterprises in the bond market, supported by favorable policies and market conditions [8][9] - The ongoing development of the "Technology Board" is anticipated to improve market liquidity and pricing efficiency, providing robust financial support for national technology innovation strategies [10]