证券研究报告 固收 第二批科创债 ETF 上报，关注指数成 份券机会 2025 年 8 月 25 日│中国内地 信用周报 信用热点：第二批科创债 ETF 上报，关注指数成份券机会 8 月 20 日第二批 14 只科创债 ETF 集中上报，首批科创债从申报到上市用 时 1 个月，第二批科创债 ETF 也有望较快落地。科创债 ETF 上市以来规模 快速增长、流动性表现较好，已成为信用债 ETF 的第二大品种。受股市走 强、债市偏弱影响，科创债 ETF 净值经历两轮调整。考虑到政策支持+科创 债供给增长+科创债 ETF 质押回购业务落地，科创债 ETF 未来发展可期。 若第二批科创债 ETF 落地，科创债指数成份券流动性有望进一步提升，收 益率仍有下行空间，但短期幅度或有限，且面临股市、政策、重要事件等扰 动较多，建议关注 1-3 年中高等级科创债指数成份券的调整后增配机会。 市场回顾：股强债弱持续，信用债收益率全面上行 SAC No. S0570523080005 SFC No. BTF199 华泰研究 朱沁宜 研究员 zhuqinyi@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 仇文竹* 研究员 S ...

Group 1 - The credit bond market is expected to recover, with a forecasted issuance volume of approximately 16.3-16.7 trillion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 3%-6% [4][48][49] - The issuance of innovative products, particularly in the technology and green sectors, is accelerating, with technology bonds surpassing 1 trillion yuan in issuance, growing by 29.88% year-on-year [16][20] - The financing environment for private enterprises remains challenging, with only 1,400 billion yuan issued in the first quarter, accounting for just 3.62% of the total credit bonds [27][28] Group 2 - The first quarter saw a contraction in total credit bond issuance, with a total of 3.65 trillion yuan issued, a decrease of 2,104.14 billion yuan year-on-year [6][12] - The structure of credit bond issuance is shifting towards medium to long-term bonds, with those over three years accounting for nearly 40% of the total issuance [12][20] - The real estate sector continues to have the highest credit spread, at 84 basis points, indicating ongoing challenges despite some signs of recovery [45][46] Group 3 - The secondary market experienced a tightening of liquidity, with total credit bond transactions decreasing by 4.48% year-on-year to 12.92 trillion yuan [34] - The yield on 10-year government bonds rose from 1.60% at the beginning of the year to 1.90% by mid-March, reflecting market volatility [37][40] - Credit spreads narrowed across various industries, with most sectors experiencing a reduction in spreads, particularly in technology and transportation [43][45]

Group 1 - The establishment of the first quantum chip production line in Hefei and the 2 billion yuan "Science and Technology Innovation Loan" supporting GuoDun Quantum highlights the critical role of financial engines in driving technological innovation and economic growth [1] - The launch of the bond market technology board aims to provide financial support for technology enterprises, with a focus on issuing technology innovation bonds by financial institutions and private equity investment firms [1][2] - China's investment in research and development (R&D) is projected to reach 36,130 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 8.3% increase from the previous year, positioning the country as the second-largest R&D investor globally [2] Group 2 - The efficiency of organizing R&D funds can be improved, as exemplified by Huawei's 2024 revenue of 862.1 billion yuan and R&D expenditure of 179.7 billion yuan, which constitutes 20.8% of its total revenue [3] - The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei National Technology Innovation Center aims to enhance the growth engine of technological innovation by fostering a collaborative innovation system that integrates research, industry cultivation, and talent development [4] - The bond market technology board has broken down financing barriers, allowing for a more flexible and tailored approach to financing for technology enterprises, which often lack collateral and profitability [5][6] Group 3 - Since the launch of the bond market technology board on May 7, 2024, 506 technology innovation bonds have been issued, with a total issuance scale of 702.378 billion yuan by July 15 [5] - Approximately 90% of the issuers of technology innovation bonds in 2024 are state-owned enterprises, but the proportion of private and public enterprises has approached 20% since the board's establishment [6] - The bond market technology board not only signals strong governmental support for hard technology but also aims to stimulate innovation among private enterprises and promote the deep integration of technology and capital [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the launch and significance of the "Penghua Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF," emphasizing its role in supporting technological innovation and providing a standardized investment tool for investors in the bond market [5][22]. Summary by Sections Introduction to Science and Technology Bonds - The Science and Technology Bond market in China began in 2016 and has rapidly expanded, reaching a market size of over one trillion yuan by 2022. The introduction of the "Technology Board" concept by the central bank in March 2023 further accelerated this growth [5][6]. Characteristics of Science and Technology Bond ETF - The Science and Technology Bond ETF aims to track the performance of a bond index specifically for technology innovation companies, providing investors with a convenient tool to participate in this market [8][9]. Index Composition and Selection Criteria - The core selection criteria for the index include "technology innovation attributes," focusing on industries such as high-tech and strategic emerging sectors, with stringent requirements for credit quality [9][10]. Performance and Risk Management - The ETF is designed to provide lower risk for investors while maintaining a focus on high-quality bonds, with 99% of the index constituents being state-owned enterprises [14][20]. Market Impact and Liquidity - The introduction of the ETF is expected to enhance market liquidity for technology innovation company bonds, facilitating easier access for investors and promoting healthy market development [5][22]. Investment Strategy and Management - The ETF employs a dual fund manager model to leverage expertise in both research and operational management, enhancing its ability to respond to market changes and manage risks effectively [29][30]. Fund Overview - The Penghua Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF is managed by a team with extensive experience in fixed income investments, aiming to maintain a tracking deviation of less than 0.2% and an annual tracking error of less than 2% [35][36].

Core Viewpoint - The first batch of private equity venture capital technology innovation bonds has been successfully issued, with a total scale of 1.35 billion yuan, featuring significantly extended maturities and lower interest rates compared to state-owned enterprise bonds [1] Group 1: Bond Characteristics - The bonds have a significantly extended maturity period, with the longest term reaching up to 10 years, compared to the typical 3 to 5 years for medium-term notes [1] - The issuance interest rates are notably lower than the coupon rates of similar state-owned enterprise bonds [1] Group 2: Market Impact - This issuance marks the first financing subject to the risk-sharing tools created by the central bank since the establishment of the "technology board" in the bond market [1] - The introduction of risk-sharing mechanisms and optimization of the funding transmission chain has initially achieved a linkage between equity, bonds, and loans [1] - The further expansion of issuing entities is expected to attract more participants to the bond market's "technology board," enriching the market ecosystem [1]

Core Insights - The launch of the "Technology Board" in the bond market on May 7 has generated significant interest, with over 190 technology innovation bonds issued by June 6, totaling approximately 374.5 billion yuan [1][2] - The market consensus is that the scale of the "Technology Board" will continue to expand, with expectations for more small and medium-sized private technology enterprises to enter the market [1][4] - The introduction of innovative bond types and risk-sharing mechanisms is essential to attract long-term capital and support the financing needs of technology enterprises [2][3] Market Overview - As of June 6, the total issuance includes 2.958 billion yuan from the interbank market and approximately 787 million yuan from the exchange market [1] - There are 32 technology innovation bonds currently in the issuance process, with a proposed issuance scale of 475.5 million yuan [1] - The average coupon rate for technology innovation bonds is 1.95%, with an average maturity of 3.3 years, indicating a trend towards longer-term financing [5][6] Issuer Diversity - The "Technology Board" features a diverse range of issuers, including financial institutions, technology companies, private equity, and venture capital firms, creating a comprehensive financing chain for technology innovation [2][7] - Financial institutions have played a significant role, accounting for approximately 60% of the total issuance, with a focus on supporting private technology enterprises [7][8] Innovation in Bond Products - The market has introduced various innovative bond products, such as intellectual property pledge bonds and green bonds, to meet the diverse financing needs of technology enterprises [2][3] - The flexibility in setting bond terms, including options for equity conversion and interest rate linkage to project performance, enhances the attractiveness of these bonds [3][4] Future Expectations - There is a strong expectation for increased participation from private technology enterprises in the bond market, supported by favorable policies and market conditions [8][9] - The ongoing development of the "Technology Board" is anticipated to improve market liquidity and pricing efficiency, providing robust financial support for national technology innovation strategies [10]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of the "Technology Board" in the bond market is creating significant opportunities for institutional investors, driven by policy incentives and innovations in the market structure [1][2][7]. Group 1: Policy Support and Market Structure - The People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission have issued policies to support the issuance of technology innovation bonds, including an "innovative credit rating system" and a "risk dispersion mechanism" to better meet the financing needs of technology enterprises [2][3]. - The innovative credit rating system aims to break traditional barriers, allowing for a more accurate assessment of technology companies' value and potential, thus enhancing investor confidence in technology bonds [2][3]. - The risk dispersion mechanism focuses on alleviating credit risks for small and medium-sized technology enterprises through various innovative financial instruments, thereby supporting their bond issuance [3][4]. Group 2: Market Expansion and Growth Potential - The establishment of the "Technology Board" is expected to lead to a significant increase in the issuance of technology bonds, with more financial institutions participating as issuers and more flexible standards for recognizing technology enterprises [5][6]. - Data shows that from May 7 to May 16, 84 companies issued 99 technology bonds, totaling 20.235 billion yuan, which is over half of the total issuance from January to April [6]. - The market for technology bonds is projected to reach a scale of at least one trillion yuan within the year, significantly increasing its proportion in the overall bond market [6]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities and Strategies - The rapid advancement of the "Technology Board" is providing more investment opportunities for institutions, with improved mechanisms for risk dispersion and enhanced liquidity in the secondary market [7][8]. - Institutions are encouraged to actively participate in the primary market for technology bonds and to adapt their credit risk strategies in light of the evolving credit rating paradigms [7][8]. - The focus is shifting from the scale of enterprises to the quality of their business models, necessitating a deeper analysis of future industry trends and company development paths [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the Technology Innovation Bonds in China's interbank market has received a positive response, with significant participation from various technology companies and investment institutions, indicating a strong demand for innovative financing solutions in the tech sector [1][3]. Group 1: Market Response and Participation - The Technology Innovation Bonds were officially launched on May 9, with 36 companies announcing a total issuance of 21 billion yuan, and 14 companies registering for an additional 18 billion yuan [1][3]. - The event featured a centralized roadshow with participation from multiple technology firms and investment institutions, highlighting the collaborative effort to promote these bonds [1][3]. - The initial response from institutional investors has been enthusiastic, suggesting a robust market appetite for these bonds [1]. Group 2: Issuer Details - Among the first 50 issuers, 26 technology companies are expected to issue bonds totaling 23.5 billion yuan, while 24 investment institutions plan to issue bonds worth 15.5 billion yuan [3][4]. - Notable issuers include both private enterprises like Luxshare Precision and public companies such as BOE Technology Group, covering a wide range of sectors including artificial intelligence and biomedicine [4][5]. - The geographical distribution of issuers spans 13 provinces, indicating a nationwide interest in the bonds [4]. Group 3: Fund Utilization - The funds raised through these bonds are primarily aimed at enhancing liquidity, supporting R&D, and facilitating comprehensive operational development for the issuing companies [3][7]. - Investment institutions are expected to use the funds for equity investments in technology sectors, ensuring that at least 50% of the raised capital is directed towards technology-focused enterprises [7][8]. - The flexibility in fund usage is a key feature of the Technology Innovation Bonds, allowing issuers to address specific financial needs [6][7]. Group 4: Risk Mitigation and Support Mechanisms - The issuance of Technology Innovation Bonds is supported by various risk-sharing mechanisms, including credit enhancement tools provided by financial institutions [10][12]. - The central bank has introduced a risk-sharing tool to support long-term financing for equity investment institutions, enhancing the credibility and market acceptance of these bonds [13][14]. - The involvement of diverse underwriting teams and the introduction of innovative credit risk mitigation measures are expected to improve the attractiveness of these bonds to investors [10][12].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission have jointly announced measures to support the issuance of technology innovation bonds, aiming to enhance the product system and improve supporting mechanisms for these bonds [1][2]. Group 1: Issuance Focus - The new issuance primarily targets three types of entities: financial institutions (such as commercial banks and securities companies), technology enterprises (especially those in growth and maturity stages), and private equity investment institutions [1]. - The policy aims to eliminate barriers between technology and capital, with the introduction of a "technology board" in the bond market [1]. Group 2: Current Challenges - Current technology innovation bonds are predominantly issued by traditional industries like construction, coal, and public utilities, with insufficient direct support for high-tech industries [1]. - The average duration of existing technology innovation bonds is approximately 2.88 years, which limits long-term financing support for enterprises [1]. Group 3: Policy Enhancements - The policy allows issuers to flexibly choose issuance methods and financing terms, and encourages innovative bond terms to better match funding needs [2]. - Local governments may establish risk compensation funds or other supportive policies to provide interest subsidies and government financing guarantees for technology innovation bonds [2]. - Credit rating agencies are encouraged to innovate the credit rating system for technology innovation bonds based on the characteristics of equity investment institutions and technology enterprises [2]. Group 4: Ecosystem Development - The collaboration among commercial banks, securities companies, private equity institutions, and technology enterprises is expected to create a comprehensive support system for technology innovation, integrating debt, loans, equity, and insurance [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for comprehensive financial support measures to stabilize the market and expectations, particularly focusing on export enterprises, small and micro businesses, and employment groups affected by external demand shocks [1][5]. Group 1: Financial Policies - A total of ten incremental monetary policies and eight incremental financial policies were announced, along with three capital market initiatives [3]. - Two new monetary policy tools were introduced: a 500 billion yuan service consumption and pension re-loan, and a technology innovation bond risk-sharing tool, aimed at mitigating external demand disturbances [3]. - The technology innovation bond risk-sharing tool is designed to enhance the attractiveness and trading activity of technology innovation bonds, addressing the financing difficulties faced by tech enterprises [3]. Group 2: Economic Stability Measures - The article suggests establishing no less than 500 billion yuan in stable foreign trade and export re-loans, specifically targeting labor-intensive export enterprises transitioning to domestic sales or relocating production capacity [1][5]. - The need for coordinated economic cycles is highlighted, as any lag in one sector can negatively impact the overall economic structure, necessitating a "package" approach to policy implementation [5][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current external environment has led to a significant drop in new export orders, with the PMI reflecting this downturn, indicating a need for timely policy adjustments such as interest rate cuts [2]. - The article notes that the comprehensive tax rate imposed by the U.S. on Chinese exports exceeds 100%, which has a direct impact on China's trade surplus and domestic manufacturing investment [5]. - The relationship between stock market stability and consumer spending is emphasized, as wealth effects from a stable stock market can help boost consumption and mitigate declines in real estate investment [3].