Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report [2] - Report date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] Group 2: Market Data Price Changes from July 9 - 15, 2025 - WTI decreased by $0.46 to $66.52 [3] - BRENT decreased by $0.50 to $68.71 [3] - DUBAI decreased by $0.06 to $70.00 [3] - SC decreased by 9.30 to 518.20 [3] - OMAN decreased by $1.25 to $68.53 [3] - Domestic gasoline increased by 10 to 7990 [3] Other Price - Related Changes - BRENT 1 - 2 month spread decreased by 0.05 to 0.93 [3] - WTI - BRENT increased by 0.04 to - 2.19 [3] - DUBAI - BRT decreased by 0.47 to 1.65 [3] - SC - BRT decreased by 0.81 to 3.77 [3] - SC - WTI decreased by 0.85 to 5.96 [3] - Domestic gasoline - BRT increased by 40 to 3898 [3] Group 3: News and Forecasts News - Goldman Sachs raised its H2 2025 Brent crude price forecast by $5 to $66/barrel and WTI to $63/barrel, predicting a drop to $56 and $52/barrel respectively in 2026 [3] - US API crude inventory for the week ending July 11 was 83.9 million barrels, against an expected - 163.7 million barrels [4] - Trump pressured Russia to cease fire, and secondary sanctions would target buyers of Russian oil [4] - Egypt postponed some LNG imports due to a new terminal not being operational [4] - Iran may face severe sanctions if no agreement is reached by end - August [4] - US President Trump won't set up tariff exemptions for the energy industry [4] Regional Fundamentals - US crude exports in the week of July 4 increased by 452,000 barrels/day to 2.757 million barrels/day [4] - US domestic crude production in the week of July 4 decreased by 48,000 barrels to 13.385 million barrels/day [4] - US commercial crude inventory (ex - SPR) increased by 7.07 million barrels to 426 million barrels (1.69% increase) [4] - US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory in the week of July 4 increased by 238,000 barrels to 403 million barrels (0.06% increase) [4] - US EIA gasoline inventory for the week ending July 4 was - 2.658 million barrels, against an expected - 1.486 million barrels [4] - US EIA refined oil inventory for the week ending July 4 was - 0.825 million barrels, against an expected - 0.314 million barrels [4] - In China, refinery operating rates had mixed changes, with production and sales of gasoline and diesel showing different trends, and inventories of gasoline and diesel increased this week [4] Group 4: Weekly Outlook - Crude oil prices oscillated this week, with the monthly spreads of the three major markets at high levels [5] - The US plans to impose new tariffs on some countries from August 1, and other trade partners may face 15% - 20% tariffs [5] - OPEC+ is discussing pausing production increases from October, after restoring 2.2 million barrels of supply in September and waiting to consider restoring another 1.66 million barrels/day [5] - Global oil inventories increased this week, with significant increases in US crude and Cushing inventories, and decreases in gasoline and diesel inventories [5] - US oil rig count decreased by 1 in the week ending July 11, while the fracturing count rebounded [5] - Refinery profits in Europe and the US strengthened this week, with a sharp rise in the near - month spread of European diesel [5] - The fundamentals of gasoline and diesel in Asia and China are neutral, with accelerated inventory accumulation in China and a decline in refinery profits [5] - In the peak refinery operation season, the monthly spreads of crude oil are expected to remain at high levels, with WTI and Brent stronger than Dubai. The absolute price faces downward pressure in the medium - term due to OPEC's increased production and tariff policies [5]

Group 1 - As of July 16, crude oil futures experienced a downward trend, with the main contract priced at 516.5 yuan/ton, reflecting a decline of 1.09% [1] - According to the Japan Petroleum Association (PAJ), as of the week ending July 12, Japan's commercial crude oil inventory increased by 81,965 thousand liters to 12,215,588 thousand liters, while gasoline inventory decreased by 14,425 thousand liters to 1,629,222 thousand liters [2] - The average operating rate of Japanese refineries was reported at 85.3%, down from 89.8% the previous week [2] Group 2 - OPEC's monthly report indicated that Kuwait's crude oil production increased by 12,000 barrels per day in June to 243,600 barrels per day, while Libya's production decreased by 24,000 barrels per day to 128,000 barrels per day [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new round of fuel price adjustments, effective from July 15, with gasoline and diesel prices reduced by 130 yuan/ton and 125 yuan/ton, respectively [2] - Chaos Tiancheng Futures noted that expectations for OPEC+ production increases are strengthening, leading to a potential oversupply in the medium term, although short-term diesel tightness may support prices [3] Group 3 - According to industry insights, OPEC maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth at 1.29 million barrels per day for 2025, with a global economic growth rate of 2.9% [3] - OPEC's total production in June increased by 220,000 barrels per day to 27,235,000 barrels per day [3] - The API reported unexpected crude oil inventory builds, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market, with overall supply concerns easing [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for each individual energy and chemical product, the ratings are as follows: - Crude oil: Oscillating [1] - Fuel oil: Oscillating [2] - Asphalt: Oscillating [2] - Polyester: Oscillating [2][4] - Rubber: Oscillating [4] - Methanol: Oscillating [5] - Polyolefin: Oscillating [5] - Polyvinyl chloride: Oscillating [5][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are affected by factors such as tariff policies and inventory changes, and are expected to continue oscillating [1]. - The fuel oil market is mainly driven by the cost - end crude oil, with the LU - FU spread reaching a high level this year, and attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunity [2]. - The asphalt market is affected by supply and demand factors and follows the cost - end crude oil for narrow - range fluctuations [2]. - The polyester market is under pressure due to factors such as weak terminal demand and inventory accumulation [4]. - The rubber market is affected by export volume and production, and is expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - The methanol market is expected to return to an oscillating trend due to factors such as device load and downstream profit [5]. - The polyolefin market has limited supply changes, and demand is at the bottom, with prices expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [5]. - The PVC market has limited fundamental changes, and the upward rebound space is not large [5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices fell again. API data showed an increase in US crude oil and refined product inventories. Trump's tariff measures may suppress oil prices. However, domestic energy production and processing have positive trends, and oil prices are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Fuel oil**: The main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil fell. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil weakened slightly, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market remained stable. It is expected to follow the cost - end crude oil for oscillation, and attention can be paid to the short - selling opportunity of the LU - FU spread [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract fell slightly. The adjustment of the fuel oil and diluted asphalt consumption tax deduction policy has not yet shown an impact. Supply has decreased, and demand has support. It is expected to follow the cost - end crude oil for narrow - range fluctuations [2]. - **Polyester**: The prices of PTA, EG, and PX futures fell. The downstream demand is weak, the inventory of polyester factories is increasing, and the prices of polyester products are under pressure [2][4]. - **Rubber**: The prices of some rubber varieties fluctuated. The rubber export volume in Cote d'Ivoire increased in the first half of 2025, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol is affected by factors such as device load and downstream profit, and is expected to return to an oscillating trend [5]. - **Polyolefin**: The prices of polyolefin products are affected by supply and demand. Supply changes are limited, demand is at the bottom, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [5]. - **Polyvinyl chloride**: The PVC market price has a narrow - range adjustment. Although demand has not improved significantly, the fundamentals have not deteriorated further, and the upward rebound space is limited [5][6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on July 16, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the percentile of the latest basis rate in historical data [7]. 3.3 Market News - Trump plans to impose a 30% tariff on most imported goods from the EU and Mexico starting from August 1, which may suppress global fuel demand and oil prices [1][9]. - API data shows that as of the week of July 11, US API crude oil and refined product inventories increased [1][9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, etc. [11][13][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It includes the basis charts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc., showing the basis changes over time [29][33][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spread charts of different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc., reflecting the price differences between different contract periods [44][46][49] - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: It includes the spread and ratio charts between different products, such as the spread between crude oil internal and external markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [61][63][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It presents the cash - flow chart of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production and the production profit chart of PP, etc. [70]

美国石油协会（API）数据显示，7月11日当周，美国API原油库存 +83.9万桶，分析师预期 -163.7万 桶，之前一周 +712.8万桶。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The oil market rating for the current week has been adjusted from relatively strong to neutral and volatile [5] Core Views - **Crude Oil**: In Q2, global oil inventories increased by 2.7%, accelerating marginally from 2% in Q1. In the first week of Q3, overall inventories decreased by 0.3% due to crude oil destocking and refined oil stockpiling. The upward drive of strong real - world factors on oil prices may be weakening, and the further upside for Brent above $70 per barrel is limited [5] - **Fuel Oil**: Last week, global fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.7% week - on - week and remained at a low level. The spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils in Singapore widened [5] - **Asphalt**: In June, refinery production exceeded the plan, breaking the de - stocking pattern. The increase in asphalt supply is still uncertain, and demand recovery is expected to be delayed [5] - **Natural Gas**: High temperatures have boosted market demand. In the US, the upside is limited before further strengthening of power demand. In Europe, the market is expected to remain volatile [8] - **LPG**: Middle East production pressure persists, and the overseas price continues to be weak. The domestic market is currently experiencing weak supply and demand, with the futures market showing weak volatility [8] - **Container Shipping Index (European Route)**: The spot price was stronger than expected last week. The short - term futures market will fluctuate with the spot price. In the medium term, freight rates are likely to decline seasonally [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Energy & Shipping Price Trends - **Energy Commodities**: Last week, crude - related products continued to rise, with Brent up 3.1%. By - products LPG and fuel oil were weak. The natural gas market showed mixed performance, with European gas up 5.2% and US gas down 0.89%. The steam coal market continued to rebound [4] - **Shipping**: European route quotes mostly remained stable in late July. US route freight rates bottomed out and stabilized, with SCFI West & East US routes up 5% and 1.2% week - on - week respectively [4] Crude Oil & Oil Products Chain Key Volume and Price Data - **Price Trends**: The crude oil monthly spread declined from a high. The premium of domestic futures was strong. The spot premium of crude oil declined slightly from a high [10] - **Crack Spreads**: Overseas gasoline and diesel crack spreads fluctuated, and the crack spread of high - sulfur fuel oil weakened. Domestic energy - chemical product crack spreads continued to decline with the rebound of crude oil [12] - **Global Oil Consumption High - Frequency Indicators**: The 7 - day average of global commercial flights was down 1.2% year - on - year. The 4 - week average of US refined oil apparent demand was down 1.6% year - on - year [13] - **China's Oil Consumption High - Frequency Indicators**: China's ground congestion index was flat year - on - year, and highway truck traffic was up 0.8% year - on - year. The number of domestic flights was up 2% year - on - year [17] - **Refining Profits & Refinery Operations**: The comprehensive refining profits of refineries in three regions and the refining margins of Chinese refineries are presented in the report, along with refinery capacity utilization rates [19] - **China & India Procurement Shipping Schedules**: In June, China's above - scale crude oil processing volume was up 8.5% year - on - year, and imports were up 7.4% year - on - year. India's crude oil imports and refining product demand also showed certain trends [22] - **Major Oil - Producing Countries' Shipping Schedules**: The shipping schedules of major oil - producing countries such as OPEC 9 countries, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iran are presented [24] - **US Crude Oil Production**: Data on US crude oil production, including production volume, four - week average year - on - year growth rate, and rig counts, are provided [26] - **Crude Oil Inventories**: Data on on - land commercial inventories, floating storage inventories, and total inventories of crude oil are presented [28] - **Refined Oil Inventories**: Data on global refined oil inventories, including light distillates, diesel, kerosene, and fuel oil, are provided [31] - **Fund Positions**: The relative net long positions of management funds in Brent and WTI crude oil are presented [33] Asphalt Key Volume and Price Data - **High - Frequency Supply and Demand**: The shipment volume of domestic refinery asphalt increased slightly week - on - week, and the cumulative year - on - year increase decreased by 1 percentage point to 7% compared to the end of June [5] - **Inventory**: Data on domestic asphalt inventories, including refinery inventories and trader inventories, are provided [38] Natural Gas Key Volume and Price Data - **Core Spreads**: Data on key spreads such as the TTF - balance spread, JKM - TTF spread, and HH forward curve are presented [41] - **Short - Term Temperature Forecast**: Short - term temperature forecasts for regions such as Northwest Europe, the US, and China are provided [46] - **European Consumption and LNG Imports**: Data on natural gas consumption and LNG imports in Europe are presented [49] - **US Production and Global LNG Exports**: Data on US natural gas production and LNG exports from the US, Qatar, and Australia are provided [51] - **Inventory Levels and Change Rates**: Data on natural gas inventory levels and change rates in the US and Europe are presented [53] LPG Key Volume and Price Data - **Core Spreads**: Data on key spreads such as the PG - FEI spread, ether - post - carbon - four - civil - gas spread, and Far - East propane - naphtha spread are presented [55] - **Inventory Levels**: Data on propane inventories in the US, refinery inventories in China, and port storage capacity utilization rates in South and East China are provided [57] Steam Coal Key Volume and Price Data - **Trade Spreads and Profits**: Data on inland trade shipping profits, high - calorie coal premiums at Bohai Rim ports, and the import advantages of imported coal are presented [59] - **Upstream Supply**: Data on the weekly production of 442 coal mines in the Three Western Regions, Ordos coal mine operating rates, and China's imported steam coal weekly shipments are provided [62] - **Mid - Stream Transportation**: Data on the supply - demand surplus, number of ships, and inventories at four Bohai Rim ports, as well as inland port inventories, are presented [64] - **Downstream Manufacturing & Construction Industry Prosperity**: Data on sub - industry PMIs, real estate sales areas, cement and coal - to - methanol operating rates, and steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rates are provided [66] - **Downstream Daily Consumption & Inventory**: Data on the daily consumption and inventory of eight coastal provinces, seventeen inland provinces, and twenty - five provinces across the country are presented [68][69] Container Shipping (European Route) Key Volume and Price Data - **Price Trends**: The spot price was stronger than expected last week. The short - term futures market will fluctuate with the spot price, and the basis will gradually converge [71] - **Capacity Turnover**: Data on the idle capacity, sailing speed of container ships, and the scale of container ships in ports in Northwest Europe and Asia are presented [76]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report suggests that crude oil prices are expected to be volatile and slightly bullish in the short term due to rising refining processing rates to meet summer travel and power generation demand, a slowdown in US production growth, and potential further sanctions on Russia. In the medium term, the production increase stance of OPEC+ may lead to an expected increase in crude oil supply. The recommended short - term trading strategy is to go long at low levels [2][28]. 3) Summary by Relevant Sections Chapter 1: Market Review - Crude oil prices were volatile and slightly bullish. The SC2509 contract opened at 497, reached a high of 513, a low of 490, and closed at 503, with a weekly increase of 5.1 or 1.05% [3]. Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors - **OPEC**: On July 5, eight OPEC+ member countries announced a production increase of 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. OPEC+ has increased production for five consecutive months, with a cumulative production recovery of 1.918 million barrels per day, and 282,000 barrels per day short of the 2.2 million barrels per day target. The IEA increased its forecast of global oil supply this year by 300,000 barrels per day to 2.1 million barrels per day. OPEC+ maintains its stance of increasing production, and Saudi Arabia shows signs of accelerating production release, resulting in continuous supply pressure [5]. - **Russia**: In 2024, Russia's crude oil production was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). In June, Russia's crude oil and refined oil exports were at abnormally low levels, and its refined oil exports dropped to an eight - month low due to government policies. The decline in exports has raised questions about Russia's ability to maintain upstream production capacity and increased supply - tight sentiment in the European and American markets [6]. - **US**: As of the week ending July 4, 2025, US crude oil production was 13.385 million barrels per day, a decrease of 48,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The US Energy Information Administration predicts that US crude oil production will decline next year [7]. - **Americas' Production Increase**: The IEA expects global oil production capacity to increase by more than 5 million barrels per day by 2030, reaching 114.7 million barrels per day. OPEC says that the supply from non - OPEC+ countries will increase by about 800,000 barrels per day in 2025, lower than last month's forecast [14]. - **Inventory**: In May, global oil inventories surged by 73.9 million barrels to 7.818 billion barrels. As of the week ending July 4, 2025, US crude oil inventories increased, with total inventory rising by 7.308 million barrels (+0.89%), strategic inventory by 238,000 barrels (+0.06%), commercial inventory by 7.07 million barrels (+1.69%), and Cushing area inventory by 464,000 barrels (+2.24%) [15]. - **Consumption**: OPEC's forecast of global oil demand growth remains basically unchanged, while the IEA has lowered its average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 704,000 barrels per day and for 2026 to 722,000 barrels per day. As of the week ending July 4, 2025, US refinery crude processing volume decreased, and refinery operating rates declined. Refinery processing fees showed different trends in different regions, and refinery operating rates were at a low level in some areas [18][21][23]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - In the short term, rising refining processing rates, a slowdown in US production growth, and potential sanctions on Russia provide support for crude oil prices. In the medium term, the production increase stance of OPEC+ may lead to an increase in supply. The recommended short - term trading strategy is to go long at low levels [28].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices showed resilience, with Brent and WTI prices reaching $70.36 and $68.45 per barrel respectively as of July 11, 2025, supported by various factors including OPEC+ production increases and a decrease in refined oil inventories [2][8] - The report highlights a significant increase in oil prices, with Brent crude futures rising by $2.06 per barrel (+3.02%) and WTI crude futures increasing by $1.45 per barrel (+2.16%) in the week ending July 11, 2025 [28] - The report notes a decrease in U.S. crude oil production to 13.385 million barrels per day, a reduction of 48,000 barrels per day from the previous week [48] - The report identifies key companies in the sector, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) [2] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of July 11, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $70.36 per barrel, up $2.06 (+3.02%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures settled at $68.45 per barrel, up $1.45 (+2.16%) [28][21] - The report indicates that the increase in oil prices is attributed to OPEC+ production adjustments and geopolitical factors affecting supply and demand [2][8] Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms increased to 385, with a net addition of 5 platforms, while the number of floating drilling platforms remained stable at 134 [33] U.S. Crude Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production decreased to 13.385 million barrels per day, with active drilling rigs dropping to 424 [48][39] - The report notes an increase in the number of pressure pumping fleets to 180, indicating some activity in the sector despite the overall production decline [48] U.S. Crude Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude processing decreased to 17.006 million barrels per day, with a refinery utilization rate of 94.70%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous week [59] U.S. Crude Oil Inventory - As of July 4, 2025, total U.S. crude oil inventories rose to 829 million barrels, an increase of 7.308 million barrels (+0.89%) from the previous week [68] Refined Oil Prices - In North America, the average prices for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel were $101.69, $91.13, and $94.08 per barrel respectively, with respective increases of $2.12, $2.86, and $1.96 [89][93]

Report Information - Report Date: July 11, 2025 [2] - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Products Weekly - Crude Oil [2] - Researcher: Liu Chenrui [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - Absolute low inventory and peak season support the downside of oil prices. There is a consensus on the weakening of the medium - term fundamentals, but it is necessary to observe the actual production increase of OPEC and guard against the time point of the outbreak of US trade negotiation risks [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Price and Financial Data - **Crude Oil Price**: The report presents the price trends of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil over a long - term period, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [11][12]. - **CFTC Positioning Data**: It shows the historical data of WTI futures and options management fund positions, including long, short, and net positions, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [13][14][15]. 2. Supply - **US Crude Oil Supply**: US production is 1338.5 barrels per day, with a环比 change of - 0.36% and a同比 change of 0.64%. The net import volume of US crude oil is 325.6 barrels per day, with a环比 change of - 29.43% and a同比 change of 17.93%. The report also shows the trends of US domestic crude oil production, net import volume, and rig platform numbers [8][18][19]. - **OPEC Crude Oil Supply**: It shows the production trends of OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq from 2021 - 2025 [21][22]. - **Non - OPEC Crude Oil Supply**: It shows the production trends of Russia, Canada, and Brazil from 2023 - 2025 [23][24]. 3. Demand - **US Petroleum Demand**: US refinery processing volume is 1700.6 barrels per day, with a环比 change of - 0.58% and a同比 change of - 0.60%. The US refinery operating rate is 94.7%, with a环比 change of - 0.2 pts and a同比 change of - 0.7 pts. The report also shows the seasonal trends of US refinery operating rate, crude oil processing volume, gasoline and diesel apparent demand [8][28][29]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance Seasonality**: It shows the seasonal trends of global, North American, and Northwest European CDU maintenance volumes [31][32][34]. - **Domestic Crude Oil Demand**: It shows the seasonal trends of China's crude oil monthly import volume, daily processing volume, and the operating rates of major refineries and Shandong local refineries [35][36]. 4. Inventory - **Global Crude Oil Supply - Demand Forecast**: The July EIA monthly report shows that the annual inventory accumulation rate in 2025 is 107 barrels per day, and provides the supply - demand data for each quarter of 2025 [40]. - **US Petroleum Inventory**: It shows the seasonal trends of various US petroleum inventories, including total inventory, refined oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, Cushing crude oil inventory, and Gulf of Mexico crude oil inventory [42][44][45]. - **US Refined Oil Inventory**: It shows the seasonal trends of US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene inventories [48][49][51]. - **China's Crude Oil Inventory and Global Floating Storage**: It shows the trends of INE crude oil inventory, global crude oil floating storage, global water - borne crude oil, and global in - transit crude oil [52][53]. - **Other Regions' Petroleum Inventory**: It shows the seasonal trends of ARA European crude oil inventory, Northwest European refined oil inventory, and Singapore refined oil inventory [54][55]. 5. Spreads and Premiums - **Global Regional Crack Spreads**: It shows the seasonal trends of crack spreads in the US Gulf, DTD trans - Atlantic, Dubai, and Minas [59][60]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: It shows the seasonal trends of RBOB - WTI, HO - WTI, Gasoline - Dubai (SING), and Gasoil - Dubai (SING) [62][63]. - **Futures Calendar Spreads**: It shows the spreads of WTI and Brent futures [64][65]. - **Regional Spreads**: It shows the spreads of WTI - Brent, SC - Brent, EFS, and SC - WTI [66][67]. - **Freight Rates**: It shows the freight rates from the Arabian Gulf to Ningbo, China, and from Arabia to Singapore and the Arabian Gulf to Japan [68][69]. - **Saudi OSP**: It shows the OSPs of Saudi medium, heavy, and light crude oils exported to different regions [70][71]. - **Different Oil Grade Premiums**: It shows the premiums of Midland WTI, WCS - WTI, and Urals - Dated Brent [73][74][75].

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a strengthening dollar index supported by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with most officials favoring interest rate cuts this year, although rates remain unchanged for now [2] - The extension of tariff implementation to August 1 has led to a generally positive market outlook, with expectations for negotiations [2] - The technical analysis indicates a consolidation pattern in gold, with successful trades noted at specific price points [2] Group 2 - U.S. crude oil inventories have significantly increased, offsetting seasonal demand, alongside expectations of increased production from OPEC+ [4] - Recent attacks in the Red Sea have not sustained market speculation, leading to a technical retreat in oil prices [4] - The prevailing supply-demand imbalance suggests a continuation of a bearish outlook for oil, with recommendations to maintain a short position on rebounds [4] Group 3 - For gold, a buying opportunity is suggested around 3322/4 with a target of 3340/50 [5] - For oil, a selling opportunity is indicated around 67.6 with a target of 66/65 [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The EIA weekly report is relatively positive. Although the most important commercial crude oil inventory unexpectedly increased significantly, there was a one - time adjustment factor from EIA. The gasoline apparent consumption during the driving peak season remains strong, and the distillate oil inventory is continuously decreasing, which is expected to support refineries to maintain high operating rates and drive crude oil demand. After the report was released, oil prices rebounded slightly but then narrowed the gains, with little overall change [7] Summary by Relevant Catalog Main Data Overview - As of July 4, US commercial crude oil total inventory was 426.021 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 7.07 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 2.1 million barrels. Cushing inventory increased by 464,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 238,000 barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 2.658 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.5 million barrels, and distillate oil inventory decreased by 825,000 barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 300,000 barrels [2] - From June 27 to July 4, US crude oil production decreased by 48,000 barrels per day to 13.385 million barrels per day; net imports decreased by 1.358 million barrels per day to 3.256 million barrels per day; processing volume decreased by 99,000 barrels per day to 17.006 million barrels per day. The four - week smoothed terminal apparent demand for US crude oil increased by 275,250 barrels per day to 20.5635 million barrels per day [3] Report Review - Last week, the significant increase in US commercial crude oil inventory was not related to imports, exports, or the operating rate. The refinery operating rate dropped slightly by 0.2% to 94.7%, still at a high level in the same period, and net imports decreased significantly. The large inventory increase was mainly due to a data adjustment of 1.8 million barrels per day to reflect "unaccounted - for crude oil", which can be considered a one - time event [4] Product Oil Situation - Gasoline demand remained at a high level, causing gasoline inventory to decline more than expected despite the high refinery operating rate. Since the data was as of July 4 (US Independence Day, Friday), and the Independence Day long weekend is often the peak of the US driving season, the strong gasoline demand is likely to continue in next week's report. Distillate oil inventory is also significantly lower than in previous years, and the low inventory is conducive to supporting cracking and helping refineries maintain high operating rates [6]