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豆类油脂早报-20250604
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 01:50
策略参考 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报(2025 年 6 月 4 日) 品种观点参考 备注: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格,计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种:豆粕(M) 日内观点:震荡偏强 中期观点:震荡 参考观点:震荡偏强 核心逻辑:随着大豆生长步入对天气高度敏感的时间段,美豆期价仍将受到天气题材和贸易风险的双重影 响,易涨难跌走势维持。国内市场供应改善预期正在逐渐兑现,油厂开工率快速攀升,豆粕负基差有所扩 大。短期豆粕期价跟随美豆波动,维持反弹判断,反弹空间受到供应压制。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 策略参考 品种:棕榈油(P) 日内观点:震荡偏强 中期观点:震荡 参考观点:震荡偏强 核心逻辑:棕榈油和菜籽油呈现此消彼长的格局。随着印度下调 CPO 进口关税,马棕累库节 ...
商品期货早班车-20250603
Zhao Shang Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 09:42
招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 【市场表现】 | | 金 | 昨日贵金属市场大幅走强,白银涨幅超过 5%。 | | 属 | 【消息面】 | | | 特朗普 5 月 30 日上周五称,6 月 4 日起,将把美国进口钢铁和铝的关税从目前的 25%上调至 50%;欧盟表 | | | 示如果双方无法达成一致,最迟 7 月中,可能打击超千亿美元进口美国产品的欧盟反制措施就要生效;美国 | | | 称中方违反中美日内瓦经贸会谈共识;周末俄乌冲突加剧,俄罗斯重要战略武器遭到攻击。 | | | 【经济数据方面】 | | | 美国 5 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 指数为 48.5,连续三个月萎缩,进口指标创十六年新低,不及预期和前值;订单量 | | | 连续第四个月萎缩,进口指数创 2009 年以来新低,出口指数创五年新低,物价支付指数仍高企。;欧元区 5 | | | PMI 月制造业 为 49.4,萎缩放缓,产出连续第三个月增长,显示复苏迹象。 | | | 【库存数据方面】 | | | 国内黄金 ETF 前一交易日小幅流出,COMEX 黄金库存 1206 吨,较前一交易日减少 ...
宝城期货煤焦早报-20250603
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 03:33
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报(2025 年 6 月 3 日) ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 基本面预期不佳,焦煤持续走低 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素堆积,焦炭偏弱震荡 | 备注: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格,计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种:焦煤(JM) 日内观点:震荡偏弱 中期观点:下跌 参考观点:偏弱运行 核心逻辑:端午节前,焦煤主力合约加速下挫,不断刷新年内低 ...
国内商品期货开盘 沪银涨超3%
news flash· 2025-06-03 01:01
国内商品期货开盘 沪银涨超3% 智通财经6月3日电,国内商品期货开盘,互有涨跌。沪银涨超3%,氧化铝、原油等涨超2%,苯乙烯、 尿素等涨超1%;NR、焦煤等跌超2%,热卷、橡胶等跌超1%。 ...
商品日报(5月30日):原油系、橡胶再度重挫 焦煤跌超5%续创近9年新低
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-05-30 10:36
哈萨克斯坦能源部副部长昨日表示,"已通知欧佩克该国没有减产计划,""OPEC+将在周六的会议上决定增产,但增产幅度仍不明确",引发市场对OPEC+7 月份将继续大幅增产的担忧,国际油价冲高回落。内盘原油系跳空低开,高硫燃料油跌幅居前。光大期货分析称,供应方面,5月俄罗斯和伊朗发货量在下 降,叠加全球三大港口以及美国燃料油库存不多,整体供应压力不突出。需求方面,随着气温逐渐升高,中东、南亚以及非洲等地区的燃油发电需求在攀 升,但是5 月国内炼厂集中检修抑制高硫消费,预计检修损失量将达到 1050 万吨的年内高位,整体消费呈现出国外好转、国内受阻的特征。综合来看,近 期原油价格变化主导燃油走势,OPEC+产量会议降至,油价波动幅度或加剧,关注端午节假期风险。 橡胶期货大幅下跌,中信建投期货分析称,近期东南亚产区雨水偏多,对割胶工作造成一定影响,但整体来看符合产区的正常天气现象,截至5月产区的天 气条件依然显著优于去年同期,目前供应端不具备打破价格平衡的条件。需求端来看,随着关税政策压制,国内下游的生产活动逐步放缓,成品库存的堆积 或体现实际销售环节正在经历"走弱"的动态过程,远月合约承接更多的远期需求下滑预期。 ...
宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250530
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-30 02:21
策略参考 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报(2025 年 5 月 30 日) 品种观点参考 备注: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格,计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种:豆粕(M) 日内观点:震荡偏强 中期观点:震荡 参考观点:震荡偏强 品种:棕榈油(P) 日内观点:震荡偏强 中期观点:震荡 参考观点:震荡偏强 核心逻辑:美豆期价反弹趋势持续,但短期在天气改善和播种加速影响下,反弹受限。随着大豆生长步入 对天气高度敏感的时间段,未来一段时间美豆期价仍将继续保持易涨难跌的走势。国内市场供应改善预期 正在逐渐兑现,短期豆粕负基差持续。随着内外联动增强,国内豆类市场震荡偏强,反弹空间受到供应压 制。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收 ...
商品期货早班车-20250530
Zhao Shang Qi Huo· 2025-05-30 02:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market for various commodities shows different trends and characteristics, with each commodity facing unique supply - demand situations, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on these fundamentals [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: The price is in a range - bound oscillation. The Trump administration's tariff appeal, a weaker dollar, and low risk appetite put pressure on base metals. Social inventory decreased weekly, and downstream stocking was limited. It is expected to continue range - bound in the short term [1]. - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum 2507 contract price rose 0.52% to 20,185 yuan/ton. Supply is at a high level with increasing operating capacity, while demand is slowing with a slight decline in the aluminum product start - up rate. The continuous inventory reduction supports the price, and it is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract price fell 0.90% to 2,964 yuan/ton. Supply is increasing due to the resumption of some plants and new capacity release, and demand from electrolytic aluminum plants is also rising. The expected supply surplus suppresses futures prices, but there is uncertainty in Guinea's mining policy [1]. - **Zinc**: The 2506 contract price rose 1.24% to 22,780 yuan/ton. Social inventory decreased. The supply is relatively loose with high raw material inventory in smelters and the resumption of some smelters. Apparent consumption shows resilience. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Lead**: The 2506 contract price rose 0.09% to 16,715 yuan/ton. The supply of recycled lead increases with new capacity and production resumption, while demand from lead - acid battery markets is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in a small range [1][2]. - **Tin**: The price continued to weaken. The Trump administration's tariff appeal and concerns about increased supply from Myanmar's resumption of production led to a bearish market. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [2]. Industrial Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: The price hit a new low. Supply did not contract significantly, and there was a high inventory. Demand from the polysilicon industry may decline in May. The price is expected to oscillate between 7,000 - 8,000 yuan, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The 2507 contract price fell 2.52%. Supply increased with a weekly output of 16,580 tons (up 3.03% week - on - week). Demand growth was slow, and inventory was high with a slight decrease. It is recommended to hold short positions or short sell far - month contracts [2]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price showed a differentiated performance. Supply was relatively stable in the short term, and inventory decreased but remained high. Demand in the component segment was weak. After the 06 contract delivery month, consider short - selling the 07 contract on rebounds [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract price rose. Steel demand increased marginally, and production decreased. It is recommended to close long positions and consider short - selling for aggressive investors [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract price rose. Port inventory decreased, and iron - water production decreased slightly. Supply was in line with the seasonal pattern, and the medium - term supply surplus remained. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract price fell. Iron - water production decreased slightly, and the first - round price cut was implemented, with a second - round cut proposed. Supply was relatively loose. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybeans rose slightly. Supply is loose in the near - term from South America and the sowing of new US soybeans is accelerating. Demand is seasonally weak. US soybeans are expected to oscillate, and the domestic market will follow the international market [5]. - **Corn**: The 2507 contract price rebounded slightly. The supply - demand situation is tightening marginally this year. The price is expected to oscillate and strengthen due to wheat price support [5]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract price fell 0.21%. The global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the 25/26 season. The domestic market is affected by import and inventory conditions. The price trend follows the raw sugar market and is expected to be bearish [5][6]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price fell, and the domestic Zhengzhou cotton price oscillated downward. Yarn prices are weak, and it is recommended to sell on rallies and adopt a range - bound strategy [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The price rebounded. Supply is in the seasonal increase period, and demand for exports has improved. The price is expected to be in a weak but not smooth phase [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2506 contract price oscillated narrowly. Supply is high, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract price rebounded after hitting a low. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak due to high temperatures. It is recommended to pay attention to the reverse - spread strategy [6]. - **Apples**: The price is at a high - level oscillation. New - season production is affected by extreme weather, and there are concerns about yield. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The price rebounded slightly. Supply is increasing with new device production and the resumption of maintenance devices, and demand is in the off - season for agricultural films. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and be short - sold in the long term [8]. - **PVC**: The V09 contract price fell 0.6%. Supply is expected to increase with new device production and some maintenance. Inventory is decreasing, and demand for exports has slowed. It is recommended to close short positions and sell out - of - the - money call options [8]. - **Rubber**: The 2509 contract price fell 1.35%. Raw material prices are falling, and the market is weak. It is recommended to close short positions gradually and consider an arbitrage strategy [8]. - **Glass**: The FG09 contract price fell 3%. Supply is expected to increase, and inventory is high. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [8]. - **PP**: The price oscillated slightly. Supply is increasing with the resumption of maintenance and new device production, and demand is expected to improve. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and be short - sold in the long term [8][9]. - **Crude Oil**: The price fluctuated. The Trump administration's tariff appeal and Kazakhstan's non - reduction stance increased supply concerns. The price is affected by the US - Iran negotiation and OPEC meeting [9]. - **Styrene**: The price rebounded slightly. Supply is expected to increase with inventory accumulation, and demand is affected by downstream profit and inventory. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and be short - sold in the medium term [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The SA09 contract price fell 1.5%. Supply and demand are both weak, and inventory is high. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The sh09 contract price rose 1.2%. Some manufacturers' inventory is tight, and the price is rising. It is expected to stop falling and stabilize [9].
宝城期货橡胶早报:偏空因素主导,橡胶震荡偏弱-20250530
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-30 02:05
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-05-30 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导,沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导,合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格,计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶(RU) 日内观点:震荡偏弱 中期观点:震荡 参考观点:偏弱运行 核心逻辑:随着宏观因子逐渐消化,胶市交投逻辑开始转向品种自身的供 ...
宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20250529
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 13:25
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Report's Core View - Gold has a long - term upward trend, but mid - and short - term multi - and short - side games intensify. The short - term, mid - term, and intraday views are mainly oscillatory, with the intraday being oscillatory and weak. The core logic is that the US economic outlook turning better is negative for gold prices, while frequent geopolitical events are positive. Also, the recent rise in the US dollar index, US Treasury prices, and the US stock market has led to a decline in risk aversion demand [1][3]. - Nickel is expected to be weak in the short term. The short - term view is a decline, the mid - term is oscillatory, and the intraday is oscillatory and weak. The core logic is that the upstream is strong while the downstream is weak, and the recent increase in the rumor of an increase in the Indonesian nickel ore quota has led to a significant decline in nickel prices. Technically, the short - term price has broken through the technical support of 120,000, and it may continue to operate weakly [1][5]. 3) Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, the gold price oscillated narrowly above 770, then oscillated downward at night, broke through 770, and then rebounded after hitting the bottom [3]. - **Market Environment**: The US dollar index and US Treasury prices have bottomed out and rebounded, and the US stock market has also shown an upward trend, leading to a decline in risk aversion demand [3]. - **View**: Short - term, mid - term, and intraday views are oscillatory, with the intraday being oscillatory and weak. The long - term upward trend remains unchanged, but mid - and short - term multi - and short - side games intensify [1][3]. Nickel (NI) - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, the nickel price dropped significantly with increased positions in the afternoon, the main contract price broke through the 120,000 mark, then oscillated and stabilized; at night, it once broke through 119,000 and then rebounded after hitting the bottom. Recently, the nickel price has been oscillating downward and accelerated yesterday [5]. - **Market Environment**: Affected by the rumor of an increase in the Indonesian nickel ore quota, the nickel price dropped significantly [5]. - **View**: Short - term view is a decline, mid - term is oscillatory, and intraday is oscillatory and weak. The short - term bears have an obvious advantage, and the price may continue to operate weakly after breaking through the technical support of 120,000 [1][5].
商品期货早班车-20250526
Zhao Shang Qi Huo· 2025-05-26 02:33
2025年05月26日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现:周五夜盘铜价偏强运行。基本面:美元指数走弱,紫金卡莫阿项目暂停部分井下作业。铜矿紧张 | | | | 铜 | 格局延续,周度加工费-44 美金。下游开工率环比略走弱,精废价差 860 元左右。交易策略:短期宏观压力存 | | | | | 在,供需依旧偏紧,铜价预期依然区间震荡。风险提示:全球流动性冲击,全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | | | 市场表现:周五电解铝 2507 合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.56%,收于 20155 元/吨,国内 0-3 月差 325 | | 元/吨, | | | LME 价格 2466 美元/吨。 | | | | | 基本面:供应方面,电解铝厂维持高负荷生产,运行产能小幅上升。需求方面,铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | | | 铝 | | | | | | 铝价有支撑,预计铝价维持震荡走势。 | | | | | 操作建议:观望。 | | | | | 市场表现:周五氧化铝 2509 合约收盘价较前一交易日-1.46 ...