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全球第二大消费市场、出口份额稳超14%……商务高质量发展这五年怎么看?
证券时报· 2025-07-18 10:49
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant achievements in China's high-quality business development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting the strong contributions of consumption, foreign trade, and foreign investment to economic growth. Group 1: Consumption - Consumption has become a major engine for economic growth, contributing approximately 60% annually to economic growth during the first four years of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3][4] - The total retail sales of consumer goods (social retail) in China is expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5% over the past four years [2][4] - Service consumption has entered a rapid growth phase, with an average annual growth rate of 9.6% from 2020 to 2024 [4][5] - Innovations in the retail sector and new consumption models, such as AI and IP-driven consumption, are emerging as new growth points [5] Group 2: Foreign Trade - China maintains a leading position in global trade, with export and import market shares stable at over 14% and 10%, respectively [6][7] - The scale of China's goods trade remains the largest globally, with service trade ranking second, surpassing 1 trillion USD for the first time last year [7][8] - The proportion of high-tech products in goods trade is projected to reach 18.2% by 2024, indicating a shift towards more advanced trade [8] Group 3: Foreign Investment - China has achieved its foreign investment target of 700 billion USD six months ahead of schedule, with actual foreign investment reaching 708.73 billion USD by mid-2023 [9][10] - The negative list for foreign investment access continues to shrink, with all restrictions in the manufacturing sector eliminated [10] - China is actively enhancing its open environment and market conditions to attract foreign investment and expand imports [10]
碳酸锂市场周报:供需偏弱VS预期改善,锂价仍将谨慎交易-20250718
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 10:27
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate futures main contract showed a weekly oscillatory and slightly stronger trend, with a weekly increase of 8.84% and an amplitude of 10.39%. The main contract was quoted at 69,960 yuan/ton [5]. - The macro - level policy focuses on promoting the high - quality development of the new energy vehicle industry and standardizing its competition order. In terms of fundamentals, the supply expectation of lithium carbonate has been repaired due to the mine rectification, and there are hedging opportunities in the futures market, with the lithium ore price rising accordingly. However, the demand side is still mainly for rigid consumption, and the spot market trading is light. The industrial inventory is at a high level and slightly accumulating [5]. - Overall, the lithium carbonate market is in a state where the expectation is repaired but the actual situation is still weak. More effective demand is needed to drive inventory reduction [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The lithium carbonate main contract was oscillatory and slightly stronger. The closing price was 69,960 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 5,680 yuan/ton [5][11]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply expectation was repaired due to mine rectification, but the actual supply might decrease. The demand was mainly rigid, and the inventory was high and accumulating [5]. - **Strategy**: Light - position oscillatory trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to trading rhythm and risk control [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of July 18, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 69,960 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 5,680 yuan/ton. The near - far month inter - period spread was - 80 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1,060 yuan/ton [11]. - **Spot Price**: As of July 18, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 66,650 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,900 yuan/ton. The main contract basis was - 3,310 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 2,780 yuan/ton [15]. 3.3 Upstream Market - **Lithium Spodumene**: As of July 18, 2025, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 708 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 12 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate was 7.1796, with a weekly increase of 0.03% [19]. - **Lithium Mica**: As of July 18, 2025, the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone was 5,825 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 425 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 1,781 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 45 yuan/ton [24]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: As of May 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,145.78 tons, a decrease of 7,190.11 tons from April, a decline of 25.37% and a year - on - year decline of 13.92%. The monthly export volume was 286.735 tons, a decrease of 447.55 tons from April, a decline of 60.95% and a year - on - year increase of 34.96%. As of June 2025, the monthly output was 44,100 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from May, an increase of 4.75% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decline of 5% and a year - on - year decline of 32% [30]. - **Demand Side** - **Hexafluorophosphate Lithium**: As of July 18, 2025, the average price was 49,250 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 500 yuan/ton. As of June 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 161,150 tons, an increase of 2,650 tons from May, an increase of 1.67% and a year - on - year increase of 35.25% [33]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of the latest data this week, the average price was 30,450 yuan/ton, with no weekly change. As of June 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 203,300 tons, a decrease of 6,800 tons from May, a decline of 3.24% and a year - on - year increase of 31.16%. The monthly operating rate was 52%, a month - on - month increase of 3% and no year - on - year change [37]. - **Ternary Materials**: As of June 2025, the monthly output was 59,000 tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons from May, a decline of 9.51% and a year - on - year increase of 13.46%. The monthly operating rate was 51%, a month - on - month decline of 4% and a year - on - year decline of 4%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of ternary materials 811, 622, and 523 remained stable [40]. - **Lithium Manganate**: As of June 2025, the monthly output was 10,800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from May, a decline of 2.7% and a year - on - year increase of 61.19%. As of the latest data this week, the average price was 28,500 yuan/ton, with no weekly change [45]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of June 2025, the monthly output was 12,400 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from May, a decline of 5.34% and a year - on - year increase of 58.97%. As of the latest data this week, the average price was 220,000 yuan/ton, with no weekly change [48]. - **Application Side** - **New Energy Vehicles**: As of June 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 44.32%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.33% and a year - on - year increase of 9.12%. The monthly output was 1,268,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%; the monthly sales volume was 1,329,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 1.68% [50]. - **New Energy Vehicle Exports**: As of June 2025, the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 1.06 million, a year - on - year increase of 75.21% [56]. 3.5 Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is 0.07, indicating a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of option at - the - money contracts and the fundamental situation, it is recommended to build a long straddle option to bet on increasing volatility [61].
商务部公布“十四五”成绩单 主要指标进展符合预期
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-07-18 08:41
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights China's significant achievements in high-quality economic development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, including strong performance in consumption, foreign trade, and foreign investment [1][4][6] Group 2 - China's social retail sales are projected to exceed 50 trillion yuan in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5% from 2020 to 2024, and the actual purchasing power of social retail sales is 1.6 times that of the United States [2][3] - The retail sales of household appliances have seen double-digit growth, driven by policies promoting the replacement of old products with new ones, with approximately 4 billion people benefiting from subsidies [3][4] Group 3 - China's goods trade has maintained its position as the world's largest for eight consecutive years, with a projected scale of 6.16 trillion USD in 2024, reflecting a 32.4% increase from the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [4][5] - The proportion of China's goods imports in global imports is nearly equivalent to that of the United States, indicating China's status as the second-largest import market globally [5][6] Group 4 - China has exceeded its foreign investment target of 700 billion USD for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period six months ahead of schedule, with a total of 70.87 billion USD in actual foreign investment by mid-2023 [6][7] - The quality of foreign investment has improved significantly, with high-tech industries accounting for 34.6% of foreign investment in 2024, an increase of 6 percentage points from 2020 [7][8] Group 5 - China's outbound investment has maintained a steady growth rate of over 5% annually, ranking among the top three in the world, with ongoing international cooperation in production and supply chains [8][9] - The conversion of tourism flow into consumption growth is evident, with a 77.8% increase in total spending by inbound tourists in 2024, amounting to 94.2 billion USD [9]
商务部:“十五五”期间将继续减少服务消费领域限制性措施
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-07-18 08:41
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government aims to continue reducing restrictive measures in the service consumption sector during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, building on the achievements of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][2] Group 1: Economic Growth and Consumer Market - China's retail sales of consumer goods increased from 39.2 trillion yuan in 2020 to 48.3 trillion yuan in 2022, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5% [1] - In absolute terms, China's retail sales in 2022 were approximately 80% of the United States; however, in terms of purchasing power, China's retail sales exceeded that of the U.S., being 1.6 times greater according to World Bank data [1] Group 2: Service Consumption Trends - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," service consumption in China entered a rapid growth phase, with annual growth in residents' service consumption expenditure projected at 9.6% from 2020 to 2024 [1] - The primary challenge during this phase is a supply-side shortage, particularly in high-quality service offerings [1] Group 3: Policy Initiatives - The Ministry of Commerce plans to address the shortage of high-quality services through both external and internal measures, including expanding pilot programs in sectors like healthcare and reducing restrictive measures in service consumption [1] - The government intends to convert effective and popular policies from the "14th Five-Year Plan" into long-term, sustainable policies while introducing targeted measures to stimulate commodity consumption and unleash service consumption potential [2]
建信期货焦炭焦煤日评-20250718
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 02:07
021-60635736 期货从业资格号:F3033782 投资咨询证书号:Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 18 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员:翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:聂嘉怡 研究员:冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1:7月17日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况(单位:元/吨、手、亿元) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | J2509 | 1494. ...
做强国内大循环再举“发令枪” 扩内需存量增量政策或一起上
news flash· 2025-07-17 17:59
今年以来,中央政府层面已多次部署做强国内大循环工作:7月16日召开的国务院常务会议明确,研究 做强国内大循环重点政策举措落实工作;5月15日国务院召开做强国内大循环工作推进会;"大力提振消 费、提高投资效益,全方位扩大国内需求",也是2025年政府工作报告提出的重点任务。"当前以促消费 为核心,部署壮大内循环,有很强的迫切性和必要性。这也符合经济增长动能转换的大方向。"东方金 诚首席宏观分析师王青说。中国财政学会绩效专委会副主任委员张依群表示,把做强国内大循环摆在更 加突出的位置,积极应对外部环境的不确定性,以消费带动投资,促进产业结构转型和产业技术升级, 推动经济转型和高质量发展。同时,激发内需消费动能,补足民生领域短板,提升居民生活水平,用大 循环推动消费经济良性循环。(上海证券报) ...
疏通堵点释放需求 做强国内大循环推动经济行稳致远
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-07-17 16:35
本报记者 张芗逸 7月16日,国务院总理李强主持召开国务院常务会议,研究做强国内大循环重点政策举措落实工作。会议指出,做强国内 大循环是推动经济行稳致远的战略之举。 今年以来,我国将做强国内大循环摆在更加重要的位置,综合施策扩大内需、促进生产、畅通循环,以中国经济的稳定性 和确定性来应对外部的不确定性。 内需潜力释放 今年以来,我国加大力度实施更加积极的宏观政策,以消费品以旧换新、工业企业设备更新等举措为抓手,做强国内大循 环。 以消费品以旧换新为例,据国家发展改革委政策研究室副主任李超介绍,消费品以旧换新方面,超长期特别国债资金支持 力度为3000亿元,前2批共1620亿元资金已按计划分别于1月、4月下达。 从政策成效来看,国家发展改革委数据显示,今年以来以旧换新相关商品销售额超过1.4万亿元。 随着政策持续显效,发挥稳投资、扩消费、促转型、惠民生作用,内需成为上半年经济增长的主动力。国家统计局最新数 据显示,上半年内需对GDP增长的贡献率为68.8%,其中最终消费支出贡献率为52%。 中航证券首席经济学家董忠云对《证券日报》记者表示,此次会议将做强国内大循环明确定位为"推动经济行稳致远的战 略之举",凸显 ...
5年再造一个长三角!改革跑出“中国速度”
21世纪经济报道· 2025-07-17 13:53
五年时间"再造"一个长三角! 最近,国家发展改革委召开了一场重磅的新闻发布会,既是对"十四五"规划的一份详细总结和 梳理,也是这五年来国家晒出来的一份亮眼成绩单。您要想了解过去五年中国干成了什么,干 好了什么,未来五年的方向是什么,就一定要仔细关注了!要说这五年,咱可没闲着,经济底 盘更稳了,办事效率更高了,老百姓的实惠也更多了。总结起来就是三大感受:国家更强了, 办事更快了,生活更好了! 首先是,"国家更强了"——这几年里经济增长总量超35万亿,这是什么概念?相当于再造一 个"长三角"那么大的经济体量!"十四五"期间,前四年中国经济平均增速达到5.5%,虽然增速 有所放缓,但步子走得更稳当,更踏实,增长水平仍然远超西方发达国家。特别是在经受过疫 情冲击、产业升级、有效需求不足、贸易摩擦等一系列问题和挑战后,能取得这样的成绩,确 实是来之不易。当前的经济增长,增速和质量同等重要,如此巨大的经济体量,仍能保持5% 左右的增速,可见全国统一大市场和以国内大循环为主的战略的巨大潜力。中国速度,关键时 刻真靠得住! 出品丨21财经客户端 财经早察工作室 总统筹丨邓红辉 执行统筹丨陈晨星 祝乃娟 监制丨洪晓文 曾婷芳 ...
瑞达期货沪铜产业日报-20250717
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 13:06
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of both supply and demand increasing. The industrial inventory, although accumulating, is still in a low - level range, and the consumption expectation is positive. The option market sentiment is bullish, with a slightly decreased implied volatility. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 77,840 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 9,599.50 dollars/ton, down 35.50 dollars. The spread between different months of the main contract was 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 153,791 hands, down 6,666 hands. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 4,039 hands, up 4,268 hands. The LME copper inventory was 121,000 tons, up 10,525 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 81,462 tons, down 3,127 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants were 12,325 tons, down 300 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 42,139 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 78,020 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 78,035 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 66 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper was 51 dollars/ton, down 2.50 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was 180 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The LME copper premium (0 - 3) was - 64.49 dollars/ton, down 16.22 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 43.79 dollars/kiloton, up 0.46 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 68,320 yuan/metal ton, down 70 yuan; the price in Yunnan was 69,020 yuan/metal ton, down 70 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 1.302 billion tons, up 0.048 billion tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 464,000 tons, up 34,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 54,790 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 66,950 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of sulfuric acid (98%) of Jiangxi Copper was 600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 2.2145 billion tons, up 0.1185 billion tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 203.986 billion yuan, up 63.169 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 4,665.756 billion yuan, up 1,042.372 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 9.96%, down 0.27%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 9.12%, down 0.17%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month was 10.15%, down 0.0065. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.62, up 0.0102 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The State Council Premier Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting. The National Committee Chairman Wang Huning emphasized the importance of expanding domestic demand. From July 1 - 13, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 571,000 vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of 7% and a month - on - month decrease of 5%. The retail sales of the new - energy passenger car market were 332,000 vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of 26% and a month - on - month decrease of 4%. The US PPI in June was flat month - on - month. The Fed's "Beige Book" showed a slight increase in economic activity [2]
瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20250717
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 13:05
Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report suggests a temporary wait - and - see approach, with a reference price range of 26.0 - 26.5. The macro - economic situation shows the US June PPI hitting a near - one - year low, and Trump's tariff plans and trade agreement announcements. In terms of fundamentals, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted mining license approvals, actual ore output will not occur until the fourth quarter, and the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in phases. Currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historical lows. On the smelting side, Yunnan faces raw material shortages and cost pressures, while Jiangxi's scrap recycling system is under pressure with low operating rates. On the demand side, after the photovoltaic industry's rush to install, some producers' operating rates have declined, and the electronics industry is in a slack season with a strong wait - and - see attitude. Recently, tin prices have dropped, but downstream procurement willingness is still low, and domestic inventories have decreased slightly while LME de - stocking has slowed and the premium has declined. Technically, there is a divergence between long and short positions at a low level of holdings, and the price has broken below the MA60 support, increasing the downward pressure [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 261,920 yuan/ton, down 2,040 yuan; the 3 - month LME tin price is 33,260 US dollars/ton, down 300 US dollars. The 8 - 9 month contract closing price for Shanghai tin is - 170 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the main contract position volume for Shanghai tin is 22,969 lots, up 221 lots. The net position of the top 20 in futures for Shanghai tin is 610 lots, up 261 lots. LME tin total inventory is 1,980 tons, down 115 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory is 7,097 tons, down 101 tons; LME tin cancelled warrants are 420 tons, down 150 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 6,777 tons, down 70 tons [3]. 2. Spot Market - The SMM1 tin spot price is 261,900 yuan/ton, down 1,700 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 263,570 yuan/ton, down 970 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 360 yuan/ton, down 1,720 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 115 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 254,700 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 258,700 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 171,130 yuan/ton, down 1,040 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 160,140 tons, up 14,450 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3]. 6. Industry News - The US June PPI year - on - year growth was 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024, with a month - on - month growth of 0%. Trump said he plans to impose "slightly more than 10% tariffs" on at least 100 countries and mentioned trade agreements. Li Qiang said to study the implementation of key policies for strengthening the domestic large - cycle and regulate the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry [3]. 7. Key Focus - There is no news today [3].