债 券 研 究 2025 年 06 月 15 日 债市节奏或向利率债行情切换 策 略 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 联系人 栾强 (8621)23297818× luanqiang@swsresearch.com 相关研究 - 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 债 券 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 近期债市行情分化，呈现类似存款搬家影响的逻辑。可能主要有两方面因素 驱动：第一，5 月份开始新一轮存款利率下调，市场有较强的存款搬家预期， 而存款搬家往往利好非银偏好的信用债标的，交易行为结果导致了信用债走 势偏强。第二，2025 年以来收益率曲线长短端期限利差持续压缩，目前处 于偏低水平，而信用利差相对而言性价比较高，资产比价效应下，也起到了 一定的催化剂作用。 ⚫ 但实际上，并无明显的存款搬家迹象。第一，参考 2024 年代表性的存款搬 家过程，其影响动力在于禁止手工补息，而非存款利率调降。随着上一轮存 ...

去年很多存款搬家去了债券市场赚差价，可现如今债券市场也不好赚钱了，资金又流回银行存成了定期。 先把刚出来的最新的 5 月金融数据，分析一波。 代表经济活跃度的 M1 ，增速 2.3% ，升至一年来的新高。这里面的核心原因是因为去年打击存款补息， 把基数拉得很低，参考意义不大。更关键点是环比数据，比上个月减少了2307亿元，说明企业和居民手里 的活钱又变少了，老问题还是没解决，消费和投资的意愿还在往下掉。广义货币供应量M2增速7.9%，增 速同样不低。 钱不少，但是都在银行手里捂着呢。 从最新的数据来看，前五个月住户存款增加了 8.3 万亿，全国人民存在银行的钱，又重新突破 160 万亿规 模。 周末有不少卖方在吹社融数据很好。 社会融资规模增加 2.3 万亿，同比多增 2271 亿元，月末增速 8.7% ，与上个月持平。和过去五年同期做 个横向对比，今年 5 月的社融属于次高水平，仅低于 2022 年。 乍一看总数，是一份相当亮眼的数据，可拆开来看，结构问题仍然存在。 从上面的图，最后一栏就是政府债券。 看看这条有多长，就会发现新增主要靠的是什么了，就是政府发债。 整个 5 月政府债券增加 14633 亿元， ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent trend of lowering deposit interest rates among banks, particularly small and medium-sized banks, is a response to the earlier rate cuts by major state-owned and joint-stock banks, aimed at stabilizing funding costs for banks [1][5]. Group 1: Deposit Rate Adjustments - Many rural commercial banks and village banks have announced reductions in deposit interest rates, following the lead of larger banks [1][3]. - For example, Qionghai Xingfu Village Bank adjusted its interest rates on various deposit products, with the current account rate dropping from 0.1% to 0.05%, and fixed-term rates for one to five years also reduced [3][5]. - A number of other banks, including Chaoyang Rural Commercial Bank and Xuwen Rural Commercial Bank, have also lowered their deposit rates in early June [3]. Group 2: Impact on Banking Sector - The reduction in deposit rates is seen as a necessary step to alleviate the pressure on net interest margins faced by banks [5]. - As of the first quarter of 2025, net interest margins for different types of banks have decreased, with state-owned banks at 1.33%, joint-stock banks at 1.56%, city commercial banks at 1.37%, and rural commercial banks at 1.58%, all showing declines compared to the end of 2024 [5]. - Lowering deposit rates can help banks reduce interest expenses, mitigate the trend of long-term deposits, stabilize funding costs, and improve profitability, thereby enhancing the sustainability of financial services to the real economy [5].

Core Points - The issuance of new savings bonds has seen a decrease in interest rates, with the 3-year bond now at 1.63% and the 5-year bond at 1.7%, down by 30 basis points compared to earlier months [1][2] - The recent trend shows that despite the decline in savings bond rates, they still offer better returns compared to traditional bank deposit rates, which have also been reduced [2][7] - The popularity of savings bonds among younger investors is increasing, with many expressing interest in purchasing them despite the lower rates compared to previous offerings [4][5] Summary by Sections Issuance and Rates - The Ministry of Finance announced the issuance of the third and fourth phases of savings bonds from June 10 to June 19, 2025, with maximum issuance amounts of 250 billion yuan each [1] - The interest rates for the bonds have decreased significantly from previous months, with the 3-year bond previously at 1.93% and the 5-year bond at 2% [2][3] Market Comparison - Current bank deposit rates have been lowered, with major banks offering 3-year and 5-year rates at 1.25% and 1.3% respectively, making savings bonds more attractive [7][8] - Many investors are finding that local banks offer higher deposit rates compared to savings bonds, indicating a competitive market for savings products [9] Investor Sentiment - Younger investors are increasingly interested in savings bonds, with discussions on social media about purchasing strategies, indicating a shift in investment preferences [4][5] - The flexible interest payment structure of electronic savings bonds is appealing to investors compared to traditional bank deposit terms [5]

作者 | 第一财经 安卓 以非法手段进行金融活动，不仅损害他人财产权益，还严重扰乱金融秩序。 6月13日，广州市中级人民法院发布了两件依法惩治非法金融活动的典型案例，提醒公众提高风险防 范意识和识别能力，远离金融诈骗陷阱，守护"钱袋子"的安全。 在"以不具备合法手续的公寓项目非法集资"的案情中，被告人张某清以其实际控制的某公司名义承 租某大厦部分楼层。随后，张某清在不具备吸收公众存款资格且未获得改建公寓的合法手续情况下， 与其他两名被告人合谋，通过打造复式公寓样板间、拨打电话、发宣传资料等方式公开宣传上址项 目，并采用与投资人签订租赁及合作经营合同等方式出售上址公寓使用权，承诺售后包租、保证固定 收益的方式，吸引社会公众参与投资，造成112名投资人实际损失2750余万元。 广州市白云区人民法院生效判决认为，被告人张某清等人结伙非法吸收公众存款，扰乱金融秩序，数 额巨大，其行为均已构成非法吸收公众存款罪，判处张某清等三人有期徒刑八年至四年不等，并处罚 金四十万元至二十五万元不等，并追缴张某清等人的违法所得发还各集资参与人。 随着我国城市化进程的加快，公寓项目逐渐吸引公众的关注和投资。公寓项目主要有选择自住或委托 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking industry is experiencing a significant reduction in long-term large-denomination certificate of deposit (CD) interest rates, leading to a phenomenon known as "deposit migration" as consumers seek better returns from other financial products [1][8]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Changes - Major banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China, have removed five-year large-denomination CDs from their offerings, with some banks now only providing up to three-year products at rates as low as 1.2% to 1.4% [1][2][6]. - The three-year large-denomination CD currently has a rate of 1.55%, while two-year and one-year products are offered at 1.2% [5][6]. Reasons for Rate Reductions - The primary reason for the reduction in long-term large-denomination CD rates is the pressure on net interest margins, prompting banks to reform their liability structures [1][10]. - As loan rates continue to decline, banks are compelled to lower high-cost long-term liabilities to alleviate pressure, thereby reducing their interest rate risk exposure [1][10]. Impact on Consumer Behavior - The decline in large-denomination CD offerings has led to a "deposit migration," where consumers are increasingly turning to alternative investment options such as money market funds, government bonds, and insurance products [8][9]. - The current three-year government bond rate is 1.63%, and five-year bonds yield 1.7%, making them attractive alternatives to traditional deposits [8]. Market Trends - The banking wealth management market has seen significant growth, with the scale of bank wealth management products reaching 29.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.41% [8]. - Insurance products are gaining popularity as alternatives to long-term deposits, with many clients showing increased interest in savings-type insurance products that offer higher returns [9]. Future Outlook - The trend of reducing long-term deposit offerings is expected to continue as banks aim to manage their interest margins effectively [10][11]. - Ordinary fixed-term deposit rates may further decline, with current rates for two-year ordinary deposits ranging from 1.2% to 1.4% [11].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that as of the end of May, the total balance of both domestic and foreign currency deposits reached 324.08 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.3% [1] - The balance of RMB deposits at the end of May was 316.96 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.1% [1] Summary by Category - **Total Deposits** - The total balance of deposits (both domestic and foreign currency) is 324.08 trillion yuan, showing an 8.3% increase compared to the previous year [1] - **RMB Deposits** - The balance of RMB deposits stands at 316.96 trillion yuan, which is an 8.1% year-on-year growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The event organized by China Minsheng Bank's Jinan branch successfully enhanced employees' understanding of the deposit insurance system and financial risk awareness through targeted educational activities [1][2][3] Group 1: Event Overview - The bank set up a dedicated promotional point at the enterprise, displaying well-designed exhibition boards covering key aspects of the deposit insurance system, including an overview, coverage, and compensation standards [1] - Sufficient promotional materials, such as brochures and leaflets, were provided for employees to read [1] Group 2: Educational Activities - Professional staff conducted focused presentations across various departments, explaining the essence of the deposit insurance system and its role in safeguarding depositors' funds [2] - Real-life scenarios of potential financial risks faced by enterprises were analyzed, highlighting the deposit insurance system as a "safety net" [2] - A dedicated Q&A session was held to address employees' inquiries about the deposit insurance system, ensuring comprehensive understanding [2] Group 3: Impact and Future Plans - Over 80 brochures were distributed, and more than 80 employees participated, significantly improving their awareness of the deposit insurance system [3] - Many employees expressed that they previously had misunderstandings about the system but now recognize its effective protective role, increasing their confidence in the safety of bank deposits [3] - The bank plans to continue diverse financial knowledge promotion activities to expand the reach and impact of financial education [3]

2025年《存款保险条例》迎来施行十周年。十年间，存款保险制度始终是筑牢金融安全网的坚实屏障。 值此重要节点，民生银行济宁邹城支行紧扣"存保十年"主题，创新开展多元化宣传活动，全力守护邹城 百姓的"钱袋子"。 未来，民生银行济宁邹城支行将以存保十年为新起点，持续深化宣传工作，创新宣传形式，扩大宣传覆 盖面，为维护邹城地区金融稳定、保护存款人合法权益贡献民生力量。 除网点宣传外，民生银行济宁邹城支行积极拓展宣传场景，将服务延伸至群众身边。支行员工走进当地 大型商超，开展"存保知识进万家"主题宣传活动。活动现场，工作人员通过设立咨询台、发放宣传资料 等方式，向过往市民普及存款保险知识。针对老年群体和普通消费者，工作人员用通俗易懂的语言，结 合典型案例，详细讲解存款保险的保障范围、偿付限额等内容，帮助群众消除存款安全疑虑。同时，通 过有奖问答等互动形式，提升群众参与热情，让存款保险知识更加深入人心。 作为金融服务的前沿窗口，民生银行济宁邹城支行将营业网点打造为宣传主阵地。自2015年起，支行持 续优化宣传场景，在营业厅入口、现金柜台等显著位置规范张贴存款保险标识，让客户第一时间感知保 障，设立专门的宣传展示区，定期 ...

事实上，利息高，不代表存钱就一定更划算，利息低，也不一定就不能存钱。 现在有一个非常害人的观点： 因为现在利息低，所以就要把钱拿去投资，不要存款。 相反，我想告诉大家的是： 现在利息越低，越是要存钱。 为什么这么说呢？ 因为利息低利率低，往往代表此刻整体大环境不乐观。 就说一个很简单的道理： 银行的投资途径和投资能力远超普通人吧。 银行愿意给大家存款更高的利息，是因为它能找到其他更高收益率的投资去覆盖存款利息的支 出。 但是现在银行都给不了大家高息，说明现在这个环境下，银行自己也找不到更高收益率的投资途 径，自然就没法用更高的利息吸引储户揽储。 银行都找不到更好的投资途径，普通人怎么可能找到呢？ 所以，作为一个普通人，如果你想要知道现在的经济怎么样，想要搞清楚当下手里的钱去哪里， 我建议大家就看两个指标就好了： 一个是 利率的高低 ； 一个是 黄金的价格 黄金越跌，越要投资；黄金越涨，越要存钱。 大家千万不要随意反驳这两句话，因为这两句话都是经过历史验证过的。 黄金这一点我想其实大家是有感受的。 从2022年开始，国内的黄金价格从300多一克涨到了现在接近800一克。 黄金上涨，是因为其他投资品都没有了稳定的 ...