Summary of FOMC Statement Core Viewpoint - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a change, which aligns with market expectations [1] Interest Rate Decision - There was a notable division in the voting, with members Waller and Bowman advocating for a rate cut, marking the first time in over 30 years that two members voted against the majority [2] Inflation Outlook - The FOMC did not alter its inflation language, indicating that inflation remains somewhat elevated [3] Economic Outlook - Economic growth has slowed in the first half of the year, and uncertainty regarding the economic outlook remains high [4] Powell's Press Conference Insights - Current policy stance is considered favorable; no decisions have been made regarding the September meeting, and future decisions will rely on incoming data [5] - Core PCE inflation is projected to rise by 2.7% year-over-year in June, while overall PCE is expected to increase by 2.5%; most long-term inflation expectations align with the Fed's target [6] - The economy is viewed as being in a stable position, although indicators suggest a slowdown in growth; the large infrastructure bill is not seen as particularly stimulative [7] - The labor market remains balanced, but there are evident downside risks [8] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be temporary, with 30% to 40% of core inflation attributed to tariffs; it is considered premature to assess the full impact of tariffs [9] - The dissenting members are expected to clarify their positions in the coming days, with both advocating for a rate cut [10] Market Reaction - Following the statement, market volatility was minimal; however, during Powell's remarks, gold prices dropped by $50, the dollar strengthened, and U.S. Treasury yields rebounded, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.38% and the 2-year yield approaching 4% [11] - U.S. stock markets faced downward pressure, and Bitcoin briefly fell below $116,000 per coin [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has maintained the interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without changes, aligning with market expectations [5][6]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, consistent with market predictions [5]. - This decision reflects a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties and inflation concerns [6]. Voting Discrepancies - There was a notable dissent among the board members, with Governors Waller and Bowman advocating for a rate cut, marking the first time in over 30 years that two members voted against the majority [5][6]. Inflation Outlook - The Fed did not alter its inflation language, indicating that inflation remains somewhat elevated [6]. - Core PCE inflation is projected to rise by 2.7% year-on-year, while overall PCE is expected to increase by 2.5% [6]. Economic Outlook - Economic growth has slowed in the first half of the year, and uncertainty regarding future economic conditions remains high [6]. - The Fed's current policy stance is viewed as favorable, but decisions regarding future meetings will depend on incoming data [6][10]. Market Reactions - Analysts suggest that the Fed may resume a loosening cycle in the fall if inflation pressures from tariffs are confirmed to be temporary [10]. - The market is closely monitoring the Fed's stance, with expectations of potential rate cuts depending on economic data trends [10][13].

新华财经北京7月31日电（郭洲洋）当地时间7月30日，美联储决定维持联邦基金利率目标区间在 4.25%-4.50%之间不变，符合市场预期，这是美联储连续第五次决定维持利率不变。投票结果为9票赞 成、2票反对，1位理事缺席未投票。其中反对的两票来自由特朗普任命的两位理事——沃勒和鲍曼，两 人均认为当前的货币政策过于紧缩，他们倾向于在本次会议上将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点。 经济评估 美联储声明指出，尽管净出口的波动仍在影响数据，但近期指标显示，今年上半年经济活动的增长有所 放缓。失业率仍处于低位，就业市场状况依然稳固。通胀仍略高于目标水平。美联储重申经济前景的不 确定性"仍然较高"，但删除了不确定性"已经减弱"的表述。 未来政策展望 为支持既定目标，委员会决定将联邦基金利率的目标区间维持在4.25%-4.50%。在评估是否以及何时进 一步调整该目标区间时，委员会将审慎分析最新数据、经济前景的演变以及风险平衡情况。委员会将继 续缩减所持的国债、机构债务和机构抵押支持证券。委员会坚定致力于实现最大就业，并将通胀率恢复 至2%的目标。 货币政策立场 委员会将持续关注新发布信息对经济前景的影响。如若出现可能妨碍 ...

1、货币政策 并没有针对9月FOMC货币政策会议做决定。 那些对7月美联储决议声明持异议的人将在未来一两天披露相关信息。 2、通胀 通胀朝着2%这一目标回落的过程已经过半。 服务通胀显著放慢，商品通胀正在上升。 5、去留问题 对于是否会在美联储主席任期届满之后继续担任理事，没有透露任何消息。 6、市场反应 并没有看到就业市场走弱。 4、关税 关税传导至价格的过程可能比之前预料的更慢。 判断特朗普关税对通胀的影响仍然太早。 当前所看到的仅仅是关税通胀的开端而已，预计后续发布的通胀数据将体现出更多的关税影响。 无法在通胀问题上单独划分出关税的影响。 某些公司将从特朗普关税中获益。 面临长期住房供应短缺问题，美国并没有建设足够多的住房。 3、就业 鲍威尔新闻发布会结束后，标普500指数跌0.35%，道指跌290点跌幅0.64%，纳指跌0.06%，半导体指数 涨0.54%，银行指数跌0.63%，罗素2000指数跌0.47%。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：通胀距离我们的目标比就业更远。 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that the majority opinion in policy discussions is that current inflation is above target levels while employment is at target levels, suggesting that policy should remain somewhat restrictive [1] Group 1 - Current inflation is higher than the target level [1] - Employment is at the target level [1] - The policy should maintain a certain level of restrictiveness [1]

③关注加拿大央行对美国与欧盟、美国与日本等国家签订的贸易协议的看法。 ④关注加拿大央行通胀、经济、就业、油价、汇率等的看法。 ①市场普遍预计加拿大央行将维持利率于2.75%不变。 ②关注加拿大央行对未来降息可能性的暗示。 注：北京时间21:45，加拿大央行将公布利率决议。 ...

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China released the results of the Q2 2025 survey indicating that over half of entrepreneurs and bankers view the current macroeconomic performance as stable and normal, holding a neutral to cautious attitude towards the overall economy [1][3][4] Group 1: Entrepreneur Insights - The entrepreneur's business climate index and profit index both increased compared to the previous quarter, with values of 49.3% and 53.2% respectively, indicating a slight improvement in business sentiment [3] - 50.8% of entrepreneurs believe the macroeconomic performance is normal, while 48.6% consider it "cold" [3] - The survey revealed that 32.5% of entrepreneurs expect to "increase profits or reduce losses," an increase of 6.5 percentage points from the previous quarter [3] Group 2: Banker Insights - The banker macroeconomic heat index for Q2 was 33.2%, a decrease from the previous quarter, with 61.9% of bankers viewing the macroeconomic performance as normal [4] - 50% of bankers rated the monetary policy as loose, with a monetary policy sentiment index of 74.6%, which is high [4] - The banker’s expectation for the macroeconomic heat index for Q3 is 37.3%, indicating a more optimistic outlook compared to Q2 [4] Group 3: Resident Insights - In a survey of urban residents, 69.7% reported that their income remained stable in Q2, with a cautious outlook on employment [5] - 51.5% of residents perceive the employment situation as severe, reflecting a cautious sentiment towards job security [5] - 32.1% of residents plan to increase spending on tourism, surpassing education as the top choice for additional expenditures [2][6]

Core Viewpoint - The overall sentiment among entrepreneurs and bankers regarding the macroeconomic performance is neutral but cautious, with over half of the respondents perceiving the current economic situation as stable [1][11]. Group 1: Entrepreneur Sentiment - The business climate index and profit index for entrepreneurs have both increased compared to the previous quarter, indicating a slight improvement in sentiment [2][9]. - In the second quarter, 50.8% of entrepreneurs believe the macroeconomic performance is normal, while 48.6% consider it "cold" [5]. - The entrepreneur's macroeconomic heat index stands at 26.0%, which is a decrease from the previous quarter [5]. - The perception of product sales prices and raw material purchase prices remaining stable is reported by 71.2% and 75.5% of entrepreneurs, respectively [7]. Group 2: Banker Sentiment - The macroeconomic heat index for bankers is recorded at 33.2%, showing a decline from the previous quarter, with 61.9% of bankers viewing the macroeconomic performance as normal [11]. - The bankers' sentiment towards monetary policy is positive, with 50% rating it as accommodative [14]. - The bankers' macroeconomic heat expectation index for the third quarter is 37.3%, indicating a more optimistic outlook compared to the second quarter [11]. Group 3: Consumer Sentiment - The urban residents' survey indicates a cautious outlook on employment, with 51.5% perceiving the job market as severe [17]. - Approximately 69.7% of residents believe their income situation remains unchanged in the second quarter [16]. - The top spending intention among residents for the next three months is tourism, surpassing education, with 32.1% planning to increase spending in this area [19]. Group 4: Economic Policy and Market Response - The central bank has implemented a series of monetary and financial policies to stabilize the economy, which has positively impacted market confidence [12]. - The overall demand for loans has decreased compared to the previous quarter, reflecting a cautious lending environment [15].

Core Viewpoint - The recent college admission scores in China indicate a shift in the higher education landscape, with new universities like Southern University of Science and Technology and Shenzhen Polytechnic surpassing traditional "Double First Class" universities in admission scores, particularly in physics and technology-related fields [1][2]. Group 1: Admission Scores and Trends - The highest admission score for physics in Guangdong Province reached 617, exceeding the special control line by 83 points, while the lowest score was 566 [1]. - Shenzhen Information Polytechnic University, newly upgraded to a vocational university, has set a total enrollment plan of 300 students across five undergraduate programs, each with a planned enrollment of 60 students [2][3]. - Comparatively, traditional "Double First Class" universities like South China Agricultural University still maintain higher admission scores in certain fields, indicating a competitive landscape [4]. Group 2: Employment and Industry Trends - The emphasis on employment outcomes has become a primary concern for students when selecting majors, with fields like computer science and engineering seeing increased interest due to their perceived job security [6][27]. - The total number of college graduates in 2025 is projected to reach 12.22 million, intensifying competition in the job market [27]. - There is a significant mismatch between the skills taught in universities and the demands of the job market, leading to challenges for graduates in securing suitable employment [37][38]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical trends show that popular majors often fluctuate based on economic conditions and industry demands, with a notable shift in the popularity of fields like construction and finance over the years [20][23]. - The current educational landscape reflects a need for universities to adapt their curricula to align more closely with industry needs, particularly in fast-evolving fields like artificial intelligence and renewable energy [10][23][50]. - The ongoing changes in the job market and educational requirements suggest that students must navigate a complex landscape of opportunities and challenges as they prepare for their futures [54][55].