Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on July 18, 2025 [1][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On July 18, 2025, the domestic spot price was 78,010, the LME price was 9,538, and the ratio was 8.19. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.17, with a profit of - 219.86. The domestic three - month price was 77,830, the LME price was 9,597, and the ratio was 8.12 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,120, the LME price was 2,693, and the ratio was 8.21. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.68, with a profit of - 1,248.97. The domestic three - month price was 22,085, the LME price was 2,696, and the ratio was 6.24 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,570, the LME price was 2,564, and the ratio was 8.02. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.53, with a profit of - 1,293.96. The domestic three - month price was 20,355, the LME price was 2,567, and the ratio was 7.96 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 118,550, the LME price was 14,787, and the ratio was 8.02. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.25, with a profit of - 2,413.78 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,625, the LME price was 1,946, and the ratio was 8.58. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.86, with a profit of - 540.93. The domestic three - month price was 16,905, the LME price was 1,974, and the ratio was 11.19 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were - 130, - 150, - 190, and - 290 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 492, 882, 1281, and 1680 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 75, 40, 10, and - 35, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 332, 452, and 571 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 60, - 120, - 185, and - 240, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 328, 442, and 557 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 20, 10, 30, and 105, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 315, 420, and 526 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 580, - 460, - 220, and - 70 [4] - **Tin**: The spread between the 5 - month and 1 - month contracts was 450, and the theoretical spread was 5437 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 20 and - 150, and the theoretical spreads were 465 and 878 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 75 and 0, and the theoretical spreads were 186 and 315 (also 172 and 286 in another record) [4][5] - **Lead**: The spreads were 270 and 250, and the theoretical spreads were 216 and 327 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On July 18, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) were 3.52, 3.82, 4.60, 0.92, 1.20, and 0.77 respectively, and in London (three - continuous contracts) were 3.53, 3.75, 4.90, 0.94, 1.31, and 0.72 [5]

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/17 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/17 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 78060 9576 8.15 三月 77940 9641 8.09 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.17 -149.02 现货出口 -105.62 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/17 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22060 2686 8.21 三月 21995 2695 6.27 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.68 -1243.32 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/17 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20520 2579 7.96 三月 20360 2581 7.92 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.51 -1436.31 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/17 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 119950 14947 8.02 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.25 -2104.30 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/17 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Not available Core View - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on July 16, 2025 [1][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On July 16, 2025, the domestic spot price was 78,025, the LME price was 9,596, and the ratio was 8.19; the three - month domestic price was 77,990, the LME price was 9,645, and the ratio was 8.09. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.17, with a profit of - 326.69 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,150, the LME price was 2,702, and the ratio was 8.20; the three - month domestic price was 22,070, the LME price was 2,712, and the ratio was 6.28. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.68, with a profit of - 1,293.29 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,510, the LME price was 2,590, and the ratio was 7.92; the three - month domestic price was 20,395, the LME price was 2,592, and the ratio was 7.88. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.52, with a profit of - 1,549.55 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 118,450, the LME price was 14,799, and the ratio was 8.00. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.25, with a profit of - 2,657.39 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,800, the LME price was 1,956, and the ratio was 8.61; the three - month domestic price was 16,965, the LME price was 1,988, and the ratio was 11.13. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.86, with a profit of - 480.20 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On July 16, 2025, the spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month were - 360, - 460, - 490, and - 540 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 494, 887, 1288, and 1689 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 95, - 110, - 110, and - 145 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 334, 454, and 574 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 55, - 90, - 150, and - 215 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 328, 442, and 557 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 100, - 65, - 35, and - 15 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 210, 316, 422, and 529 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 2320, - 2180, - 1950, and - 1790 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 460, and the theoretical spread was 5451 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were 475 and 115 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 561 and 940 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 30 and - 65 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 185 and 314 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 230 and 130 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 218 and 330 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On July 16, 2025, for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc, the Shanghai (three - continuous) ratios were 3.53, 3.82, 4.60, 0.92, 1.20, and 0.77 respectively, and the London (three - continuous) ratios were 3.58, 3.74, 4.83, 0.96, 1.29, and 0.74 respectively [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Alumina**: The alumina market is in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand. The previous optimistic sentiment in the market has cooled, and it is gradually returning to the fundamentals. It is recommended to trade with a light - position, expecting a slightly stronger and volatile trend [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum market has a situation of a slight increase in supply and weak demand. Affected by the off - season and trade uncertainties, the upward space for the price of Shanghai aluminum may be limited [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cast aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum, the cost - support logic is relatively strong. In the short term, the upward space for the price of cast aluminum may be limited [2]. 3. Directory Summaries 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,430 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,165 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The spread between this month and next month's contracts for Shanghai aluminum decreased by 5 yuan, while that for alumina increased by 73 yuan [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: The positions of the main contracts of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy changed, with decreases in Shanghai aluminum and alumina and an increase in cast aluminum alloy. The LME aluminum inventory increased by 5,275 tons, and the Shanghai aluminum inventory on the SHFE increased by 8,565 tons [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum increased by 703 hands, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased by 0.02 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum and Yangtze River Non - ferrous AOO aluminum increased, while the price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot remained unchanged. The spot price of alumina increased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 500 yuan/ton, the basis of electrolytic aluminum increased by 25 yuan/ton, and the basis of alumina decreased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium increased by 150 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum discount decreased by 2.17 dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: The production of alumina increased by 16.50 million tons, the demand increased by 26.32 million tons, and the supply - demand balance decreased by 15.33 million tons. The import volume increased by 5.68 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 5 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan and Shandong remained unchanged. The import volume of aluminum scrap decreased by 30,651.64 tons, and the export volume increased by 35.90 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The total production capacity increased by 0.50 million tons, the production of primary aluminum decreased by 27,381.21 tons, and the export increased by 18,421.29 tons. The production of aluminum products decreased by 0.20 million tons, and the export of un - forged aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 6.10 million tons [2]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy Ingot**: The production increased by 0.29 million tons, and the export increased by 0.76 million tons. The built - in production capacity decreased by 1.10 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile**: The monthly automobile production was 2.809 million vehicles, an increase of 0.167 million vehicles [2]. - **Real Estate**: The national real - estate climate index was 93.60, a decrease of 0.11 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of Shanghai aluminum decreased, and the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased slightly [2]. - **Put - Call Ratio**: The put - call ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.16, an increase of 0.0711 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Trade**: In the first half of the year, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 21.79 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. Exports were 13 trillion yuan, up 7.2%; imports were 8.79 trillion yuan, down 2.7% [2]. - **Monetary Policy**: At the end of June, the balance of broad money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%; the stock of social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [2]. - **Automobile Registration**: In the first half of the year, 16.88 million new motor vehicles were registered nationwide, including 5.622 million new energy vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 27.86% [2].

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/14 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/14 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 78670 9662 8.16 三月 78340 9684 8.10 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.16 -220.79 现货出口 -64.09 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/14 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22450 2772 8.10 三月 22355 2773 6.17 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.65 -1530.73 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/14 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20790 2607 7.97 三月 20630 2609 7.93 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.50 -1371.41 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/14 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 120300 15058 7.99 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.24 -2894.10 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -100 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Alumina**: The fundamentals may be in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand. The previous optimistic sentiment in the market has cooled down, and the market is gradually returning to the reality of fundamentals [6]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The fundamentals may be in a situation of a slight increase in supply and weak demand. Affected by the off - season and trade uncertainties, the upward space of Shanghai Aluminum may be limited [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The fundamentals may be in a situation of weak supply and demand. Due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum, the cost - support logic is relatively strong, and the short - term upward space may be limited [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated strongly, up 0.29% to 20,695 yuan/ton; Alumina first rose and then fell, up 3.08% to 3,117 yuan/ton; Cast Aluminum rose 0.23% to 19,930 yuan/ton [6][8]. - **Market Outlook**: Alumina supply is expected to remain high in the short term, and demand is stable; Electrolytic Aluminum supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand is weak; Cast Aluminum Alloy supply and demand are both weak [6][8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Lightly short the main contracts of Shanghai Aluminum and Alumina, and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: As of July 11, 2025, Shanghai Aluminum closed at 20,835 yuan/ton, up 0.1%; LME Aluminum closed at 2,606 US dollars/ton, up 0.02%; Alumina futures were at 3,195 yuan/ton, up 1.11%; Cast Aluminum Alloy was at 19,930 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [11][15]. - **Ratio and Spread**: The Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 8.01, up 0.17; The aluminum - zinc spread was 1,685 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton; The copper - aluminum spread was 57,735 yuan/ton, down 1,360 yuan/ton [12][23]. - **Spot Prices**: As of July 11, 2025, the average price of alumina in Henan was 3,160 yuan/ton, up 1.94%; in Shanxi was 3,110 yuan/ton, up 2.11%; in Guiyang was 3,110 yuan/ton, up 2.11%; The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was flat; The A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 20,760 yuan/ton, up 0.05%, with a spot discount of 70 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from last week [26][30]. - **Positions**: As of July 11, 2025, the Shanghai Aluminum position was 691,850 lots, up 0.12%; The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was 4,602 lots, down 9,660 lots [18]. 3.3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of July 10, 2025, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 395,725 tons, up 10.86%; SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 103,197 tons, up 9.05%; Domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 412,000 tons, down 2.83%. As of July 11, SHFE electrolytic aluminum warrants were 51,980 tons, up 35.07%; LME electrolytic aluminum registered warrants were 387,500 tons, up 11.11% [34]. - **Raw Materials**: In May 2025, alumina production was 7.488 million tons, up 5% year - on - year; The cumulative production from January to May was 37.401 million tons, up 9.5% year - on - year. The total import of bauxite increased, and the port inventory rebounded. The domestic bauxite nine - port inventory was 24.54 million tons, up 50,000 tons month - on - month [37]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: As of the latest data this week, the price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong was 15,800 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week. In May 2025, the import of aluminum scrap was 159,700.92 tons, up 3.7% year - on - year; the export was 72.44 tons, up 34.3% year - on - year [43]. - **Production and Trade**: In May 2025, electrolytic aluminum production was 3.828 million tons, up 5% year - on - year; the cumulative output from January to May was 18.59 million tons, up 4% year - on - year. The import of electrolytic aluminum increased year - on - year. The production of aluminum products, cast aluminum alloy, and aluminum alloy all increased, with different trends in imports and exports [49][53][57][60][63]. - **Downstream Markets**: In May 2025, the real estate market declined slightly, with the real estate development climate index at 93.72, down 0.13 from last month. Infrastructure investment was positive, and automobile production and sales increased year - on - year [66][69]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis Given that the aluminum price is expected to decline slightly with fluctuations in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [73].

Report Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating Core Views - The report mainly presents the cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data of various non - ferrous metals on July 10, 2025, including copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, nickel, and tin [1][4][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price is 79040 (domestic) and 9683 (LME) with a ratio of 8.25; March price is 78200 (domestic) and 9661 (LME) with a ratio of 8.17. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.16 with a profit of - 437.33 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot price is 22160 (domestic) and 2719 (LME) with a ratio of 8.15; March price is 22045 (domestic) and 2717 (LME) with a ratio of 6.34. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.67 with a profit of - 1420.13 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot price is 20660 (domestic) and 2583 (LME) with a ratio of 8.00; March price is 20455 (domestic) and 2585 (LME) with a ratio of 7.95. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.51 with a profit of - 1323.71 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot price is 118350 (domestic) and 14781 (LME) with a ratio of 8.01. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.25 with a profit of - 2437.48 [1] - **Lead**: Spot prices are 17025 and 17195 (domestic), 2032 and 2049 (LME) with ratios of 8.37 and 10.78 respectively. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.84 with a profit of - 957.80 [1][3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month are - 1440, - 1640, - 1840, and - 2030 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 501, 900, 1309, and 1717 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month are 50, - 25, - 80, and - 125 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 213, 333, 452, and 571 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month are - 185, - 245, - 335, and - 410 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 215, 330, 446, and 561 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month are 70, 90, 85, and 75 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 211, 317, 424, and 530 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month are - 1010, - 920, - 720, and - 550 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is - 610 with a theoretical spread of 5443 [4] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) are 3.55, 3.82, 4.55, 0.93, 1.19, and 0.78 respectively; in London (three - continuous) are 3.51, 3.71, 4.68, 0.95, 1.26, and 0.75 respectively [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market may continue its volatile upward trend in the short term, but its upward space is still limited by the oversupply on the supply side. The fundamental contradiction remains prominent, and the growth in new energy vehicle sales has not yet translated into restocking momentum for the material sector. The midstream continues to use the customer-supplied model to avoid exposure risks. Additionally, the expansion of the spot discount to over a thousand yuan will attract arbitrage funds, and attention should be paid to the risk of a pullback under inventory pressure. Key factors to monitor include the production schedule of cathode materials and the seasonal production rhythm of Qinghai Salt Lakes [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Main Contract and Basis**: On July 8, the main contract of lithium carbonate was reported at 63,880 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.35% from the previous day. The basis continued to weaken, and the spot discount to the futures widened to -1,080 yuan, indicating a divergence in the expectation of improved long-term supply and demand [1] - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position of the main contract increased significantly by 15,500 lots in a single day, and the trading volume soared by 155.69% to 545,000 lots, reaching a new high in the past week, intensifying the game between long and short funds [1] 2. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: Short-term disturbing factors have increased. The capacity utilization rate of lithium salt plants decreased by 1 percentage point to 61.8% month-on-month, but the pressure of medium-term supply expansion still exists. The raw material prices remained stalemate, with the prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remaining flat in the past two weeks [2] - **Demand Side**: There was a marginal improvement but limited elasticity. In June, the retail sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.071 million units, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and the penetration rate exceeded 52.7%, with terminal data exceeding expectations. However, the transmission to the cathode material sector was limited. Ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate only saw a slight increase, the cell prices remained stable across the board, and midstream procurement was still mainly based on long-term agreements, with a low willingness to replenish inventory with spot orders [2] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The inventory accumulation pressure in the industrial chain continued. The total inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 1,510 tons month-on-month to 138,347 tons, rising for four consecutive weeks [2] 3. Market Summary - The lithium carbonate market may continue its volatile upward pattern in the short term, but the upward space is still limited by the oversupply on the supply side. Attention should be paid to the risk of a pullback under inventory pressure, and key factors to monitor include the production schedule of cathode materials and the seasonal production rhythm of Qinghai Salt Lakes [3] 4. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - The main contract of lithium carbonate, battery-grade lithium carbonate, power-type ternary materials, and power-type lithium iron phosphate all saw slight increases on July 8 compared to the previous day, while the prices of lithium concentrate, lithium hexafluorophosphate, and various types of cells remained unchanged [5] - The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased by 1 percentage point to 61.8% compared to July 4, and the inventory increased by 1,510 tons to 138,347 tons [5] 5. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotations**: On July 8, the SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate index price was 62,788 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 306 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 62,900 yuan/ton, and that of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 61,300 yuan/ton, both increasing by 350 yuan/ton. The spot transaction price of lithium carbonate continued to oscillate upward. In the future, the price may maintain a low-level volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the change in actual demand increments [6] - **Downstream Consumption Situation**: In June, the retail sales of the national new energy passenger vehicle market were 1.071 million units, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and the wholesale volume was 1.259 million units, a year-on-year increase of 28% [7] - **Industry News**: Multiple companies announced production expansion and technological transformation plans, including the construction of the "Mamico Salt Lake Mining Project" by Tibet Ali Mamico Mining Development Co., Ltd., the technological transformation project of a 25,000-ton lithium salt production line by Zhongkuang Resources (Jiangxi) Lithium Industry Co., Ltd., etc [8][9] 6. Appendix: Large Model Inference Process - The futures price of lithium carbonate has rebounded, but it is constrained by high inventory and weak demand, and may maintain a low-level volatile trend in the future. Attention should be paid to whether there is a substantial improvement in subsequent demand or more adjustments on the supply side [30][31]

南华煤焦产业风险管理日报 2025/07/09 南华研究院 黑色研究团队 严志妮：Z0022076 张泫：F03118257 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 双焦价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 780-900 | 31.17% | 60.79% | | 焦炭 | 1350-1500 | 23.97% | 44.10% | source： 南华研究,wind 双焦风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存套保 | 焦炭盘面大幅升水现货，交割利润可观 | 多 | 做空J2509 | J2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 1425-1450 | | | | | | | | 50% | 1450-1500 | source： 南华研究 黑色仓单日报 | | ...

铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/08 | | 国内价格 | LME价格 | 比价 | | 均衡比价 | 盈利 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现货 | 16950 | 2018 | 8.41 | | | | | 三月 | 17225 | 2043 | 10.86 | 现货进口 | 8.84 | -854.51 | 跨期套利跟踪 2025/07/08 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -720 -870 -1120 -1350 理论价差 502 902 1311 1720 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -350 -400 -465 -515 理论价差 215 336 458 579 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -405 -460 -550 -635 理论价差 215 331 447 563 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -30 -15 -30 -55 理论价差 211 318 426 533 镍 次月-现货 ...