跨期套利跟踪 2025/06/16 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -890 -1100 -1310 -1540 理论价差 497 891 1295 1698 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -560 -855 -1010 -1105 理论价差 215 336 457 578 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -235 -465 -615 -725 理论价差 214 330 445 561 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 65 60 35 45 理论价差 209 315 420 526 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 1920 2120 2260 2480 锡 5-1 价差 1290 理论价差 5448 期现套利跟踪 2025/06/16 铜 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 -15 -905 理论价差 114 421 锌 当月合约-现货 次月合约-现货 价差 105 -455 理论价差 8 137 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the reports. Core Views - In the stock index market, investors can focus on hedging and arbitrage opportunities arising from short - to medium - term fluctuations, and pay close attention to macroeconomic data and policy trends [4]. - For crude oil, the WTI main contract should be watched around the next resistance level of $70 per barrel. In the long - term, without major geopolitical impacts on supply, the upside for crude oil is limited [5]. - Gold price is in a range - bound pattern. Short - term fluctuations depend on the Fed's policy signals and geopolitical situations in the Middle East [7]. - Silver prices are highly volatile. Investors should be cautious of high - level pullbacks and focus on policy signals, geopolitical trends, and the divergence between speculation and fundamentals [8]. - For PTA, it may run with a short - term downward bias [9]. - Ethylene glycol prices may be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [10]. - PVC futures prices will likely oscillate at low levels due to weak fundamentals [11]. - PP futures prices may oscillate at low levels due to weak demand [13]. - Plastic futures prices may fluctuate in the short term due to weak fundamentals [14]. - Soda ash futures are expected to continue bottom - range oscillations in the short term [16]. - Glass futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [17]. - Rubber prices are mainly weak, but there is an expectation of a rebound after negative factors are realized [18]. - Methanol futures prices will oscillate in a short - term range, and the risk of continuous inventory accumulation should be watched [19]. - Corn futures will mainly oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan/ton in the short term [21]. - Peanut futures prices will adjust weakly in the short term [22]. - Cotton futures prices will run strongly in a short - term range [23]. - Live hog futures will oscillate weakly [24]. - It is recommended to wait and see for egg futures for now [25]. - Soybean No. 2 futures will likely oscillate in a short - term range [26]. - Soybean meal futures will likely oscillate in a short - term range [27]. - Soybean oil futures will likely oscillate in a short - term range [28]. - Rapeseed meal futures' 2509 contract performance at the previous high - price platform should be watched [29]. - Rapeseed oil futures' 2509 contract will likely oscillate in a short - term range [30]. - For copper, it is recommended to relieve defenses at high prices based on the island - shaped technical pattern [31]. - Shanghai aluminum futures' 2507 contract will likely oscillate in a range [32]. - Alumina futures' 2509 contract shows a weak adjustment trend [33]. - Cast aluminum alloy futures' 2511 contract will likely run strongly [34]. - For lithium carbonate, conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive ones can operate within a range [36]. - Industrial silicon futures' 2507 contract will oscillate strongly at the bottom [37]. - Polysilicon futures' 2507 contract will mainly oscillate, and the support at previous lows should be watched [37]. - Stainless steel futures are in a wide - range low - level oscillation, and it is recommended to wait and see [38]. - Rebar futures can be treated with a light - position, low - buying strategy in the short term [40]. - Hot - rolled coil futures can be treated with a light - position, low - buying strategy [41]. - Iron ore futures' 2509 contract will likely maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [42]. - Coking coal and coke futures will mainly oscillate recently, and attention should be paid to steel mills' inventory destocking and policy implementation [42]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock Index - Market analysis: Sino - US economic and trade consultations have reached a principle framework, the US May CPI is lower than expected, and China's May PPI remains low. The market shows a divergence in the inter - term structure of stock index futures [3]. - Reference view: Investors can focus on short - to medium - term hedging and arbitrage opportunities, and pay attention to macroeconomic data and policy trends [4]. Crude Oil - Macro and geopolitics: The Sino - US second - round negotiation "reached a framework agreement in principle", and the oil price broke through the key level of $65 per barrel [5]. - Market analysis: OPEC has significantly lowered future global demand growth, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have increased supply uncertainty [5]. - Reference view: Watch the next resistance level of $70 per barrel, and the upside is limited in the long - term without major geopolitical impacts [5]. Gold - Macro and geopolitical drivers: The US May CPI data was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East boosted the safe - haven demand for gold [7]. - Market performance: Gold price is in a range - bound pattern [7]. - Operation suggestion: Pay attention to the Fed's policy signals and geopolitical situations in the Middle East [7]. Silver - Market price: The international spot silver price fell on June 12, and the gold - silver ratio rose [8]. - Market analysis: Weak inflation and smooth trade negotiations reduced safe - haven demand, and the price increase was mainly driven by futures speculation [8]. - Operation suggestion: Be cautious of high - level pullbacks and focus on policy signals, geopolitical trends, and the divergence between speculation and fundamentals [8]. Chemicals PTA - Spot information: The East China spot price increased, with a discount [9]. - Market analysis: Oil price fluctuations affect costs, the overall PTA operating rate increased, and the inventory decreased. The polyester factory load decreased, and textile orders were weak [9]. - Reference view: It may run with a short - term downward bias [9]. Ethylene Glycol - Spot information: The East China spot price remained unchanged, with a positive basis [10]. - Market analysis: The supply decreased slightly, the demand was suppressed by weak terminal orders, and the inventory increased [10]. - Reference view: Prices may be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [10]. PVC - Spot information: The spot prices in East China remained unchanged [11]. - Market analysis: The production capacity utilization rate increased, downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the social inventory decreased [11]. - Reference view: Futures prices will likely oscillate at low levels due to weak fundamentals [11]. PP - Spot market: Spot prices in different regions showed slight changes [12]. - Market analysis: The supply increased, demand entered the off - season, and the production enterprise inventory increased [12]. - Reference view: Futures prices may oscillate at low levels due to weak demand [13]. Plastic - Spot market: Spot prices in different regions increased slightly [14]. - Market analysis: The supply capacity utilization rate increased, the downstream average operating rate changed slightly, and the inventory increased [14]. - Reference view: Futures prices may fluctuate in the short term due to weak fundamentals [14]. Soda Ash - Spot information: The mainstream prices in different regions remained unchanged [15]. - Market analysis: The supply increased, the inventory increased slightly, and the demand was average [15]. - Reference view: Futures are expected to continue bottom - range oscillations in the short term [16]. Glass - Spot information: The market prices in different regions remained unchanged [17]. - Market analysis: The supply decreased slightly, the inventory decreased slightly, and the demand was weak [17]. - Reference view: Futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [17]. Rubber - Market price: The prices of different types of rubber and raw materials are provided [18]. - Market analysis: The Sino - US trade situation and oversupply have dragged down the price, and the downstream tire operating rate decreased [18]. - Reference view: Pay attention to the downstream operating rate, and the price shows a pattern of slow rises and sharp falls under weak fundamentals [18]. Methanol - Spot information: The East China spot price decreased [19]. - Market analysis: The futures price rose slightly, the port inventory increased, the supply pressure continued, and the demand was weak [19]. - Reference view: Futures prices will oscillate in a short - term range, and the risk of continuous inventory accumulation should be watched [19]. Agricultural Products Corn - Spot information: Corn purchase prices in different regions are provided [20]. - Market analysis: Favorable weather in the US and concerns about imports, tight domestic supply in the short term, and weak downstream demand [21]. - Reference view: Futures will mainly oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan/ton in the short term [21]. Peanut - Spot price: Peanut prices in different regions are provided [22]. - Market analysis: The expected increase in planting area in 2025, current low inventory, and weak supply and demand [22]. - Reference view: Futures prices will adjust weakly in the short term [22]. Cotton - Spot information: The domestic cotton spot price index and Xinjiang arrival price are provided [23]. - Market analysis: Sino - US relations have improved, long - term supply is expected to be loose, and short - term inventory is low with weak downstream demand [23]. - Reference view: Cotton futures prices will run strongly in a short - term range [23]. Live Hog - Spot market: The average price of live hogs in major production and sales areas increased [24]. - Market analysis: Support from the breeding side and weak demand [24]. - Reference view: Futures will oscillate weakly [24]. Egg - Spot market: The average egg price in the main production areas decreased [25]. - Market analysis: Sufficient supply and weak demand [25]. - Reference view: It is recommended to wait and see for now [25]. Soybean No. 2 - Spot information: Import costs of soybeans from different countries are provided [26]. - Market analysis: The market has digested the Sino - US trade talks, good weather in the US, and a peak in Brazilian soybean exports [26]. - Reference view: Futures will likely oscillate in a short - term range [26]. Soybean Meal - Spot information: Spot prices in different regions are provided [27]. - Market analysis: Uncertain US tariff policies, international factors, and domestic supply pressure with weak demand [27]. - Reference view: Futures will likely oscillate in a short - term range [27]. Soybean Oil - Spot information: Spot prices in different regions are provided [28]. - Market analysis: Increased supply pressure abroad, weak international oil prices, and increased domestic supply with weak demand [28]. - Reference view: Futures will likely oscillate in a short - term range [28]. Rapeseed Meal - Spot market: The price of rapeseed meal in Dongguan increased [29]. - Market analysis: Sufficient supply in the near - term and tight in the far - term, and weak downstream demand [29]. - Reference view: Watch the performance of the 2509 contract at the previous high - price platform [29]. Rapeseed Oil - Spot market: The price of rapeseed oil in Dongguan increased [30]. - Market analysis: Sufficient supply in the near - term and tight in the far - term, neutral demand, and high inventory [30]. - Reference view: The 2509 contract will likely oscillate in a short - term range [30]. Metals Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper increased [31]. - Market analysis: Complex US interest - rate cut expectations, global tariff issues, and domestic policy support. Raw material problems and inventory declines [31]. - Reference view: It is recommended to relieve defenses at high prices based on the island - shaped technical pattern [31]. Shanghai Aluminum - Spot information: The Shanghai spot aluminum price increased [32]. - Market analysis: Stable supply, weakening demand in the off - season, and inventory reduction [32]. - Reference view: The 2507 contract will likely oscillate in a range [32]. Alumina - Spot information: The national average price of alumina decreased [33]. - Market analysis: Sufficient supply, increased inventory, and weak demand [33]. - Reference view: The 2509 contract shows a weak adjustment trend [33]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Spot information: The national and East China spot prices of cast aluminum alloy increased [34]. - Market analysis: Cost support, supply surplus, and weakening demand in the off - season [34]. - Reference view: The 2511 contract will likely run strongly [34]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [36]. - Market analysis: Stabilizing upstream raw materials, stable supply, and weak demand [36]. - Reference view: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive ones can operate within a range [36]. Industrial Silicon - Spot information: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon remained unchanged [37]. - Market analysis: Slight increase in supply, weak demand, and slow inventory digestion [37]. - Reference view: The 2507 contract will oscillate strongly at the bottom [37]. Polysilicon - Spot information: The prices of different types of polysilicon remained unchanged [37]. - Market analysis: Stable supply, weak and differentiated demand, and weak overseas demand [37]. - Reference view: The 2507 contract will mainly oscillate, and the support at previous lows should be watched [37]. Black Metals Stainless Steel - Spot information: The price of cold - rolled stainless steel coil remained unchanged [38]. - Market analysis: Weak cost support, high supply pressure, and weak demand [38]. - Reference view: Low - level wide - range oscillation, wait and see [38]. Rebar - Spot information: The Shanghai rebar price decreased [39]. - Market analysis: Stabilizing raw materials, low inventory, and weak demand in the off - season [40]. - Reference view: Treat with a light - position, low - buying strategy in the short term [40]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Spot information: The Shanghai hot - rolled coil price remained unchanged [41]. - Market analysis: Stabilizing raw materials, low inventory, and rising apparent demand [41]. - Reference view: Treat with a light - position, low - buying strategy [41]. Iron Ore - Spot information: The prices of iron ore indexes and futures are provided [41]. - Market analysis: Increased supply, decreased demand, and high inventory pressure [41]. - Reference view: The 2509 contract will likely maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [42]. Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The prices of coking coal and coke remained unchanged [42]. - Market analysis: Supply contraction expectation for coking coal, weakening demand for both coking coal and coke [42]. - Operation suggestion: Mainly oscillate recently, pay attention to steel mills' inventory destocking and policy implementation [42].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as Sino - US tariff negotiations, central bank policies, and trade consultations. Different sectors have different market trends and investment opportunities [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: The index has stable lower support and upward breakthrough pressure. TMT stocks are down, and A - shares are in a correction. Sell put options on the CSI 1000 Index expiring in July with a strike price around 5800 to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is in a range - bound oscillation. The probability of an upward movement in bond futures has increased. For the 10 - year treasury bond, the interest rate is expected to be in the range of 1.60% - 1.75%, and for the 30 - year, 1.80% - 1.95%. Consider appropriate strategies based on interest rate fluctuations [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is in a range - bound oscillation with possible pulse - type fluctuations. Use a strategy of selling out - of - the - money gold option straddles to earn time value. Silver is in a short - term strong trend, and long positions can be held [2]. Industrial Sector - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) is in a range - bound consolidation. Consider going long on the main contract at low prices, with the 08 contract expected to oscillate between 1900 - 2200 [2]. - **Steel**: Industrial steel demand and inventory are deteriorating. Consider a long - steel short - raw material arbitrage operation. The steel market is in a range - bound oscillation [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market is in a range - bound oscillation between 700 - 745. The molten iron output is falling from a high level [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price may still fall, but the expectation has improved. Go long on the JM2509 contract at low prices [2]. - **Coke**: After the third round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills, the futures price is expected to rebound. Go long on the J2509 contract at low prices [2]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The market is in a bottom - bound oscillation. Try shorting when the price rebounds to 5300 - 5400 [2]. - **Manganese Silicon**: There is still supply pressure. Try shorting when the price rebounds to 5700 - 5800 [2]. - **Copper**: The CL spread has widened again, and the US copper inventory replenishment continues. The main contract price is expected to be between 78000 - 80000 [2]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price is oscillating weakly, with the main contract price expected to be between 21000 - 23000 [2]. - **Nickel**: The spot sentiment is weak, and the fundamentals have not changed much. The main contract price is expected to be between 118000 - 126000 [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The steel mills have cancelled price limits, and the market is weak. Adopt a high - short strategy after the sentiment stabilizes. The main contract price is expected to be between 12400 - 13000 [2]. - **Tin**: The tin price continues to rise due to slow supply recovery and improved macro - sentiment [2]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The macro - environment has improved market confidence. The short - term trend is bullish. The upper pressure for WTI is [64, 66], for Brent is [67, 69], and for SC is [475, 485] [2]. - **Urea**: Supply is at a high level while demand is sluggish. The downward pressure on the futures price remains. The support level for the main contract is adjusted to 1640 - 1660 [2]. - **PX**: Supply has increased significantly, and downstream polyester production cuts have intensified. PX is under short - term pressure. Pay attention to the support around 6400 [2]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand is weaker than expected. PTA is under short - term pressure. Pay attention to the support around 4500 - 4600 [2]. - **PF**: Some factories have reduced contracts, and the short - term processing fee has slightly recovered. The strategy is similar to that of PTA [2]. - **Bottle Chips**: In the peak demand season, there are expectations of production cuts. The processing fee is bottom - seeking. The strategy is similar to that of PTA [2]. - **Ethanol**: Short - term demand is weak, but the supply - demand structure is good. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 4200 - 4400 [2]. - **Styrene**: Short - term raw materials and inventory reduction support the price. Pay attention to medium - term contradictions [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply - demand expectations are poor, and the spot price has corrected. Exit the 7 - 9 calendar spread and wait on the sidelines [2]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve. Adopt a high - short strategy and pay attention to Indian BIS policy changes in June [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It follows the commodity market trend. Hold short positions in the BR2507 contract [2]. - **LLDPE**: The spot price has increased by 30 - 50, and the trading volume is moderate [2]. - **PP**: Supply and demand are both weak, and it is in a weak oscillation. Adopt a high - short strategy [2]. - **Methanol**: The inventory inflection point has appeared, and it is in an oscillation [2]. Agricultural Sector - **Meal**: During the Sino - US trade consultations, the futures price is strong [2]. - **Pigs**: Demand is weak due to hot weather, but the rising feed price supports the futures price. Pay attention to the performance around 13500 [2]. - **Corn**: The wheat support purchase has started, and the corn price is slightly bullish [2]. - **Oils**: There are both long and short factors, and the market is in a narrow - range oscillation. Palm oil is testing the support at 8000 in the short term [2]. - **Sugar**: Overseas supply is expected to be loose. Adopt a high - short trading strategy in the range of 5600 - 5850 [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market is weak. Adopt a high - short trading strategy [2]. - **Eggs**: The spot price may weaken again. Short the 07 contract on rebounds and hold short positions [2]. - **Apples**: The price is a bit chaotic, and the main contract is trading around 7500 [2]. - **Juice**: The market price is weakly stable, and it is trading around 8900 in the short term [2]. - **Peanuts**: The market price is oscillating, and the main contract is trading around 8300 [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The oversupply situation continues. Hold short positions at high prices and consider the 7 - 9 calendar spread [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: The market is affected by cold - repair news and is volatile. Wait on the sidelines in the short term [2]. - **Rubber**: Market sentiment has improved, and the rubber price is rebounding. Adopt a high - short strategy above 14000 [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: After a rise, the futures price is oscillating with a reduction in positions. It is in a low - level oscillation [2]. New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: The fundamentals have no obvious changes, and the futures price is oscillating. Hold short positions if any [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The sentiment is stable, and the price is in a narrow - range oscillation. The main contract is expected to trade between 56,000 - 62,000 [2].

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/11 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/11 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 79260 9814 8.06 三月 78770 9730 8.13 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.17 -1195.14 现货出口 375.79 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/11 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22170 2603 8.52 三月 21655 2636 6.39 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.70 -481.62 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/11 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20160 2472 8.15 三月 19880 2465 8.13 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.66 -1240.39 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/11 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 123050 15171 8.11 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.27 -3823.28 跨期套利跟踪 2025/06/11 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -120 -230 -370 -600 理论价差 497 892 1296 1700 锌 ...

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/09 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/09 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 78870 9826 7.97 三月 78820 9756 8.07 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.18 -1323.74 现货出口 833.76 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/09 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22660 2660 8.52 三月 22225 2696 6.19 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.73 -556.23 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/09 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20230 2462 8.21 三月 19975 2467 8.14 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.66 -1105.12 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/06/09 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 123450 15320 8.06 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.27 -4308.57 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 16450 1963 8.41 三月 16775 1990 11.21 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.91 -996.08 跨期套利跟踪 2025/06/0 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report presents the cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data of non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on June 6, 2025, including domestic and LME prices, price ratios, spreads, and theoretical spreads. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price in China is 78380, LME is 9731, ratio is 8.06; March price in China is 78040, LME is 9638, ratio is 8.11. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.19, profit is - 1366.56; spot export profit is 799.54 [1]. - **Zinc**: Spot price in China is 22870, LME is 2660, ratio is 8.60; March price in China is 22180, LME is 2696, ratio is 6.20. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.71, profit is - 303.28 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Spot price in China is 20250, LME is 2469, ratio is 8.20; March price in China is 19935, LME is 2477, ratio is 8.10. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.64, profit is - 1099.54 [1]. - **Nickel**: Spot price in China is 123100, LME is 15213, ratio is 8.09. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.26, profit is - 3495.98 [1]. - **Lead**: Spot price in China is 16500, LME is 1956, ratio is 8.44; March price in China is 16695, LME is 1979, ratio is 11.32. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.90, profit is - 900.72 [3]. 3.2 Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spreads of next - month, March, April, and May relative to spot - month are - 180, - 310, - 450, - 720 respectively; theoretical spreads are 494, 886, 1286, 1687 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: Spreads of next - month, March, April, and May relative to spot - month are - 415, - 575, - 695, - 785 respectively; theoretical spreads are 217, 340, 462, 585 respectively [4]. - **Aluminum**: Spreads of next - month, March, April, and May relative to spot - month are - 155, - 230, - 280, - 325 respectively; theoretical spreads are 212, 325, 437, 550 respectively [4]. - **Lead**: Spreads of next - month, March, April, and May relative to spot - month are 75, 75, 55, 55 respectively; theoretical spreads are 208, 312, 416, 520 respectively [4]. - **Nickel**: Spreads of next - month, March, April, and May relative to spot - month are - 730, - 520, - 310, - 170 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: Spread of 5 - 1 is - 100, theoretical spread is 5377 [4]. 3.3 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spreads of current - month and next - month contracts relative to spot are 0, - 180 respectively; theoretical spreads are 207, 615 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: Spreads of current - month and next - month contracts relative to spot are - 115, - 530 respectively; theoretical spreads are 33, 165 respectively [4]. - **Lead**: Spreads of current - month and next - month contracts relative to spot are 120, 195 respectively; theoretical spreads are 127, 237 respectively [5]. 3.4 Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - Ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) are 3.52, 3.91, 4.67, 0.90, 1.19, 0.75 respectively; in London (three - continuous) are 3.63, 3.93, 4.92, 0.92, 1.25, 0.74 respectively [5].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The index has stable support below and pressure to break through above. It is affected by news in the short - term and will continue neutral oscillation after the fluctuations subside. TMT has become popular again, and all major A - share indices have closed higher [2]. - 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond interest rates are expected to fluctuate within certain ranges. The short - end varieties of treasury bonds are relatively strong [2]. - Gold has resistance at the previous high of $3430, and silver has broken through the resistance of last year's high and is expected to continue rising in the short - term [2]. - The shipping index (European line) is in a volatile consolidation phase [2]. - Industrial materials in the steel sector have poor demand and inventory, and iron ore and coke are in different market conditions [2]. - Gold and silver are differentiated. Gold has resistance at the previous high, and silver is expected to continue rising in the short - term [2]. Group 3: Summary by Category Stock Index - Index short - term is affected by news, and after the fluctuations subside, it continues neutral oscillation. TMT is popular again, and all major A - share indices close higher. It is recommended to mainly wait and see and sell put options on the CSI 1000 index with an execution price around 5700 in July to collect the premium [2]. Treasury Bond - 10 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.75%, and 30 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.8% - 1.95%. It is recommended to conduct interval band operations for the unilateral strategy and wait and see for now. Pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract for the spot - futures strategy, and pay attention to the opportunity of band steepening for the curve strategy [2]. Precious Metals - Gold has resistance at the previous high of $3430, and a strategy of selling out - of - the - money gold options on both sides can be adopted after the volatility increases. Silver has broken through the resistance of last year's high of $34.8 and is expected to continue rising in the short - term [2]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The market is in a volatile consolidation phase. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously, and the 08 contract is expected to oscillate between 2050 - 2250 points [2]. Steel - Industrial materials demand and inventory are poor. Pay attention to the decline range of apparent demand. Unilateral operations are mainly on hold, and pay attention to the arbitrage operation of buying finished products and shorting raw materials [2]. Iron Ore - Iron ore is in an interval oscillation, with a reference range of 700 - 745. Pay attention to the marginal change of terminal demand [2]. Coke - Mainstream steel mills started the third round of price cuts on June 4. Coke is weak and making concessions, and the futures have advanced rebound expectations. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Coking Coal - The market auction non - successful bid rate has decreased, and coal mine production has declined from a high level. The spot price may still fall, but the expectation has improved. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Copper - The CL spread has widened again, and the US copper restocking continues. The main contract should pay attention to the pressure level of 78000 - 79000 [2]. Zinc - Domestic and overseas inventories are increasing simultaneously, and the zinc price is oscillating weakly. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23500 [2]. Nickel - The market is in a narrow - range oscillation, and the fundamentals have not changed much. The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [2]. Stainless Steel - The market maintains oscillation, with cost support and supply - demand contradictions still existing. The main contract reference range is 12600 - 13200 [2]. Tin - The supply recovery progress is slow, and the macro - sentiment has improved. The tin price continues to rebound. After the sentiment stabilizes, a short - selling strategy from high levels is recommended [2]. Crude Oil - The conversation between Chinese and US leaders has eased market concerns. The market is likely to oscillate in the short - term. A band strategy is recommended in the long - term, and it is recommended to wait and see during the oscillation period. The upper pressure for WTI is [64, 66], for Brent is [67, 69], and for SC is [475, 485] [2]. Urea - The upstream inventory continues to increase in the short - term, and the export scale is difficult to increase for the time being, with limited support for the market. A band strategy is recommended in the long - term, and it is still bottom - grinding in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and wait for rebound opportunities. The main contract is expected to fluctuate around [1740, 1850] [2]. PX - The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, and the price is under pressure, but there is still support due to the tight spot situation. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels in the 6500 - 6900 range, pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity for PX9 - 1, and shrink the PX - SC spread when it is high [2]. PTA - The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, but the raw material support is strong. The PTA price has support at low levels. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels in the 4600 - 4900 range and conduct reverse arbitrage for TA9 - 1 when it is high [2]. Short - fiber - Some factories have reduced contracts, and the short - term processing fee has slightly recovered, but the driving force is still limited. The unilateral operation of PF is the same as that of PTA, and it is recommended to expand the processing fee at the low level of the PF disk [2]. Bottle - chip - During the peak demand season, there is a production - reduction expectation for bottle - chips, and the processing fee is supported. PR follows the cost fluctuation. The processing fee of the PR main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to expand it at the lower edge of the range [2]. Ethanol - The port inventory continues to decline. Attention should be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity. It is recommended to buy at around 4200 for EG09 and conduct positive arbitrage for EG9 - 1 at low levels [2]. Styrene - In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the opportunity of raw material resonance decline. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels and pay attention to the raw material resonance opportunity [2]. Caustic Soda - The alumina procurement supports the spot price. Attention should be paid to the inventory and cost. The 7 - 9 positive arbitrage position should be held [2]. PVC - The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to effectively relieve. Attention should be paid to the changes in the Indian BIS policy in June. A high - level short - selling strategy is recommended [2]. Synthetic Rubber - BR follows the commodity price fluctuation. The short position of BR2507 should be reduced [2]. LLDPE - The spot price has risen with the market, and the trading volume is moderate [2]. PP - The supply and demand are both weak, and it is in a weak oscillation. A short - selling strategy from high levels gradually is recommended [2]. Methanol - The inventory inflection point has appeared, and it is in an oscillation phase [2]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - CBOT has stabilized, and the two are oscillating. M2509 is expected to oscillate between 2900 - 3000 [2]. Live Pig - The demand is weak after the festival, and the spot price is under pressure again. Attention should be paid to the performance around 13500 [2]. Corn - The spot price is relatively stable, and the corn price is in a narrow - range oscillation. It is expected to oscillate around 2330 in the short - term [2]. Palm Oil - The production has increased, and the market is in an oscillating consolidation phase. Palm oil is expected to test the support at 8000 in the short - term [2]. Sugar - The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended, with a reference range of 5600 - 5850 [2]. Cotton - The downstream market remains weak. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [2]. Egg - The spot price may weaken again. A short - selling strategy on rebounds for the 07 contract is recommended, and short positions should be held [2]. Apple - The bagging is in progress, and the trading is priced according to quality. The main contract is expected to run around 7700 [2]. Jujube - The market price is weakly stable and is in a bottom - building phase [2]. Peanut - The market price is oscillating. The main contract is expected to run around 8400 [2]. Soda Ash - The oversupply logic continues. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended, and short positions should be held. A 7 - 9 positive arbitrage strategy between months is recommended [2]. Glass - The market sentiment has reversed, and the market has rebounded. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [2]. Rubber - The market sentiment has improved, and the rubber price continues to rebound. A short - selling strategy on rebounds above 14000 is recommended [2]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures opened lower, oscillated, and declined slightly [2]. Polysilicon - The spot price has stabilized, and the polysilicon futures have declined in an oscillating manner. If there are long positions, it is recommended to close them first [2]. Lithium Carbonate - The sentiment is temporarily stable, and the market is in a narrow - range oscillation. The fundamental logic has not reversed. The main contract is expected to run between 56,000 - 62,000 [2].

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Report Overview - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals on June 3, 2025 [1] Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spot price: domestic 78,240, LME 9,604, ratio 8.13; March price: domestic 77,420, LME 9,554, ratio 8.14; equilibrium ratio for spot import 8.22, profit - 778.22; profit for spot export 507.68 [1] Zinc - Spot price: domestic 22,780, LME 2,639, ratio 8.63; March price: domestic 21,980, LME 2,662, ratio 6.22; equilibrium ratio for spot import 8.74, profit - 281.50 [1] Aluminum - Spot price: domestic 20,290, LME 2,446, ratio 8.29; March price: domestic 19,975, LME 2,452, ratio 8.18; equilibrium ratio for spot import 8.67, profit - 945.16 [1] Nickel - Spot price: domestic 122,450, LME 15,179, ratio 8.07; equilibrium ratio for spot import 8.28, profit - 4,102.92 [1] Lead - Spot price: domestic 16,350, LME 1,929, ratio 8.50; March price: domestic 16,610, LME 1,953, ratio 11.39; equilibrium ratio for spot import 8.93, profit - 824.33 [1][3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spread: next month - spot month - 330, March - spot month - 510, April - spot month - 710, May - spot month - 1030; theoretical spread 492, 881, 1280, 1679 respectively [4] Zinc - Spread: next month - spot month - 425, March - spot month - 670, April - spot month - 860, May - spot month - 945; theoretical spread 216, 339, 461, 583 respectively [4] Aluminum - Spread: next month - spot month - 105, March - spot month - 200, April - spot month - 250, May - spot month - 300; theoretical spread 212, 325, 438, 551 respectively [4] Lead - Spread: next month - spot month 85, March - spot month 75, April - spot month 50, May - spot month 50; theoretical spread 208, 311, 415, 519 respectively [4] Nickel - Spread: next month - spot month 1010, March - spot month 1260, April - spot month 1420, May - spot month 1550 [4] Tin - 5 - 1 spread not provided, theoretical spread 5,219 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spread: current month contract - spot - 285, next month contract - spot - 615; theoretical spread 238, 623 respectively [4] Zinc - Spread: current month contract - spot - 130, next month contract - spot - 555; theoretical spread 51, 183 respectively [4][5] Lead - Spread: current month contract - spot 185, next month contract - spot 270; theoretical spread 154, 264 respectively [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - Ratios for Shanghai (three - continuous): copper/zinc 3.52, copper/aluminum 3.88, copper/lead 4.66, aluminum/zinc 0.91, aluminum/lead 1.20, lead/zinc 0.76; ratios for LME (three - continuous): copper/zinc 3.63, copper/aluminum 3.89, copper/lead 4.85, aluminum/zinc 0.93, aluminum/lead 1.25, lead/zinc 0.75 [5]

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/05/28 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/05/28 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 78440 9617 8.15 三月 77660 9577 8.18 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.23 -822.25 现货出口 67.80 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/05/28 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22720 2671 8.51 三月 22155 2692 6.24 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.73 -598.42 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/05/28 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20200 2445 8.26 三月 19975 2446 8.18 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.69 -1042.43 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/05/28 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 123400 15305 8.06 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.28 -4225.15 跨期套利跟踪 2025/05/28 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -370 -610 -880 -1100 理论价差 493 885 1285 1685 锌 ...