Core Viewpoint - The expectation is that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December and continue to do so approximately three more times next year, despite recent hawkish comments from Powell [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Non-farm payrolls have shown weak performance over the last four months, with potential marginal improvement expected after the government reopens, but strong growth is unlikely [1] - Inflation is likely to remain moderate [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The impact of Powell's hawkish remarks is expected to be temporary, with a return to a rate-cutting cycle anticipated [1] - U.S. Treasury yields are expected to continue in a downward trend, and the U.S. dollar is likely to weaken [1] - Gold prices are expected to recover after a pullback, benefiting from the advancing rate-cutting cycle, which is favorable for both emerging market equities and bonds [1] Group 3: Alternative Scenarios - In a low-probability scenario where the Federal Reserve pauses rate cuts in December and struggles to implement cuts by 2026, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar may remain elevated, putting pressure on gold prices and U.S. equities, as well as increasing stress on emerging market assets [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the collective rise in U.S. Treasury yields across various maturities on October 30, with notable increases in the 10-year and 30-year yields [1][2] Group 2 - The 2-year Treasury yield increased by 1.63 basis points to 3.608% [1] - The 3-year Treasury yield rose by 1.41 basis points to 3.609% [1] - The 5-year Treasury yield saw an increase of 1.04 basis points to 3.715% [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield climbed by 2.32 basis points to 4.097% [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield increased by 3.45 basis points to 4.655% [1]

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury yields rose across the board on October 29, with significant increases in short and long-term rates [1] Group 1: Yield Changes - The 2-year Treasury yield increased by 10.62 basis points to 3.592% [1] - The 3-year Treasury yield rose by 10.10 basis points to 3.595% [1] - The 5-year Treasury yield climbed by 10.01 basis points to 3.704% [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield went up by 9.82 basis points to 4.074% [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield increased by 7.87 basis points to 4.620% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Sell short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [8] - Options: Postpone [9] Core View - The Fed is likely to continue cutting interest rates in October, and the market has fully priced in this expected rate cut. Coupled with factors that reduce short-term risk aversion, precious metals are expected to continue to show a volatile trend [8]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The U.S. Senate failed to pass the procedural vote on the "2025 Fiscal Year Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act" for the 13th time, so the government shutdown will continue. ADP will launch weekly employment data, and the first report shows that the average number of private-sector jobs in the U.S. increased by 14,250 in the four weeks ending October 11 [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On October 28, 2025, the Shanghai Gold futures main contract opened at 926.92 yuan/gram and closed at 901.38 yuan/gram, down 3.51% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 905.06 yuan/gram, up 0.41% from the afternoon session. The Shanghai Silver futures main contract opened at 11,268.00 yuan/kg and closed at 11,049.00 yuan/kg, down 3.03% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,052,828 lots, and the open interest was 321,876 lots. The night session closed at 11,180 yuan/kg, up 1.19% from the afternoon session [2]. U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On October 28, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 3.974%, down 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.492%, up 0.21 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Position and Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On October 28, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 541 lots, and the short positions decreased by 242 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts was 643,413 lots, a change of 24.38% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions increased by 2 lots, and the short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Silver contracts was 1,760,723 lots, a change of 35.58% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,038.92 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,210 tons, a decrease of 131 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On October 28, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 20.15 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -625.43 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 81.58, down 0.49% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 85.07, up 0.90% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On October 28, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 67,744 kg, a change of 21.58% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 765,416 kg, a change of 17.10% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,166 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 16,830 kg [7].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. employment market shows signs of resilience despite the government shutdown, indicating a potential "soft landing" for the economy. Although September's non-farm payrolls were weak, improvements are expected in the coming months. The unemployment rate's upward pressure may ease as layoffs decrease [1][7][8]. Economic Outlook - The U.S. high-frequency economic indicators are entering an upward cycle, with employment data expected to show resilience. This limits the potential for significant declines in bond yields. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) likely peaked in September and is expected to enter a declining phase over the next few months, which will restrict interest rate rebounds. The 10-year yield is projected to oscillate within a weak range, with support at 3.9% and 3.8%, and resistance at 4.1% and 4.2% [1][33][34]. Market Review - The prolonged U.S. government shutdown led to the absence of employment data, while the CPI data release was delayed. Mid-month, tensions escalated in U.S.-China trade relations, and two regional banks faced crises, heightening risk aversion. However, by the end of the month, a framework agreement was reached in U.S.-China talks, and the regional bank issues did not escalate into systemic risks, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite [2]. Employment Data Insights - Five private sector indicators reflect the state of non-farm employment: ADP employment, NFIB small business hiring plans, Revelio Labs employment forecasts, Challenger job additions, and Job Indeed new postings. While ADP and NFIB indicate weak job growth for September, other indicators suggest a mild improvement. The Challenger layoffs data shows a significant decrease in layoffs, which may alleviate upward pressure on the unemployment rate [7][8]. Agency MBS Monitoring - In October, agency MBS yields declined alongside U.S. Treasury yields, with Fannie Mae MBS yields decreasing more than Ginnie Mae MBS. The credit spread relative to Treasuries narrowed to the historical 50th percentile. The duration of Fannie Mae MBS is currently overvalued [39][40].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the mixed performance of U.S. Treasury yields on October 28, with short-term yields rising while long-term yields experienced slight declines [1][2] Group 2 - The 2-year Treasury yield increased by 0.37 basis points to 3.486% [1] - The 3-year Treasury yield rose by 1.39 basis points to 3.494% [1] - The 5-year Treasury yield went up by 0.94 basis points to 3.604% [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield decreased by 0.01 basis points to 3.976% [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield fell by 0.75 basis points to 4.542% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2] Core Viewpoints - US CPI in September was lower than market expectations, but the stagflation risk remains unresolved. The cooling of the US real - estate market has curbed inflation, but price increases in non - rent services and core commodities are still high. Retailer inventory is tight, and an aggressive trade policy may exacerbate inflation risks [2] - The 10 - year US Treasury yield is oscillating around the 4% mark. The outcome of the US Supreme Court's tariff case and the resolution of the US government "shutdown" affect the US Treasury market. Caution should be exercised when the 10 - year yield is below 4% [2] - The price index of edible agricultural products has rebounded. There are changes in prices of various commodities such as oil, metals, and building materials. The average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities from October 1 - 21, 2025, decreased compared to the same period in 2024 [2] Summary by Related Catalogs High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - The report shows various charts comparing high - frequency data with important macro - indicators such as industrial added value, PPI, CPI, and export volume, including copper prices, steel production, and commodity price indices [8][23][29] US and European Important High - frequency Indicators - Charts display US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, unemployment rates, same - store sales growth, PCE, and financial conditions indexes, as well as the implied prospects of interest rate hikes/cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank [96][98][105] High - frequency Data Seasonal Trends - Seasonal trends of high - frequency data are presented, including data on steel production, production material price indices, and commodity price indices [107][113][116] High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The report shows the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [160][164][167]

Group 1: Inflation Data and Federal Reserve Expectations - The overall CPI in the U.S. rose by 0.3% month-on-month in September, lower than the market expectation of 0.4%, and the year-on-year growth rate was 3%, also below the expected 3.1% [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 3% year-on-year, both lower than market expectations, indicating reduced inflationary pressure [1] - The market perceives that the Federal Reserve has likely concluded its rate hike cycle, with nearly 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and December [1][2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Investment Opportunities - Following the CPI data release, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield dropping to 3.966%, marking a recent low, and the yield curve indicating increased expectations for Fed rate cuts [2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in October is a focal point for the market, with a high probability of confirming a dovish stance, which may put further pressure on the dollar and lead to increased inflows into gold and commodities [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. government shutdown and economic data visibility continues to affect market volatility and investor sentiment [2][3] Group 3: Commodity and Currency Market Insights - The rise in rate cut expectations supports gold prices, suggesting potential low-positioning opportunities while monitoring short-term volatility from Fed officials' comments [2] - The dollar faces short-term downward pressure, with trading opportunities in the euro against the dollar and dollar against yen, recommending cautious trading strategies [2] - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields provides some support for the stock market, but overall risk appetite remains constrained by policy uncertainties [2][3] Group 4: Oil Market Outlook - Oil prices are expected to remain weak in the short term due to rising inventories and demand concerns, with OPEC+ decisions and geopolitical situations being key variables to watch [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the mixed performance of U.S. Treasury yields on October 24, with varying changes across different maturities [1] Group 2 - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 0.01 basis points to 3.488% [1] - The 3-year Treasury yield fell by 0.29 basis points to 3.494% [1] - The 5-year Treasury yield increased by 0.87 basis points to 3.614% [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 0.94 basis points to 4.010% [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield saw an increase of 2.18 basis points, reaching 4.599% [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market surged to record highs on Friday, driven by a lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September, which provides stronger justification for the Federal Reserve to continue interest rate cuts in the upcoming meetings [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all closed at historical highs, with the Dow surpassing 47,000 points, marking the 13th record high this year [1] - Inflation indicators, including rent, are showing signs of deflation, but inflation remains sticky, and returning to the 2% target will take time according to Apollon Wealth Management [1] Group 2 - U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed movements, with the 3-year Treasury yield dropping to 3.49%, significantly below the effective federal funds rate of approximately 4.11% [2] - Market expectations indicate a total of 4 to 5 rate cuts of 25 basis points each by mid-2026, although the actual number of cuts may be lower according to Steven Blitz [2] - A positive slope in the short-end yield curve could trigger banks to release credit, restarting loan expansion, potentially occurring as early as next summer [2] Group 3 - Concerns about medium to long-term inflation pressures are echoed by other analysts, highlighting the lagging effects of Fed rate cuts and the potential end of balance sheet reduction by late 2025, which could accelerate inflation risks [3] - Factors such as a rebound in bank lending, increased demand for mortgages and refinancing, and fiscal stimulus from policies could reignite inflation [3]