Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent movements in gold and silver prices, influenced by U.S. Treasury yields and the strength of the U.S. dollar, alongside expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][4]. Gold Market Insights - On December 9, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.1670%, while the 2-year yield was at 3.5810% [1][4]. - Spot gold experienced a decline of 0.15%, closing at $4190.68 per ounce, after initially dropping by $30 [1][4]. - Spot silver fell by 0.25%, ending at $58.15 per ounce [1][4]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members have differing opinions on upcoming decisions, but there is a consensus that a 25 basis point rate cut is expected with a probability of about 100% [1][4]. Gold Price Trends - The gold market opened at $4197.4 per ounce, reached a high of $4219.1, and then fell to a low of $4175.9 before closing at $4190.7 [5][6]. - The daily candlestick formed a spinning top pattern, indicating potential for further price movement [6]. - The market is currently under pressure but remains within a trading range, with resistance levels at $4200-$4220 and support levels at $4175-$4160 [6]. Nasdaq Index Insights - The Nasdaq index opened at $25730.39, dipped to $25661.88, peaked at $25824.35, and then fell to a low of $25525.84, closing at $25666.78 [2][6]. - The daily candlestick also formed a spinning top pattern, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend [6]. - Despite a drop from recent highs, there are signs of stabilization, with resistance levels at $25739-$25850 and support levels at $25620-$25500 [6].

周一（12月8日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期国债收益率涨3.32个基点，报4.1682%，日内交投区间为 4.1273%-4.1897%，北京时间22:30美股开盘后出现一波短线拉升行情，逼近9月25日盘中最高位4.1989% 和9月4日顶部4.2226%。两年期美债收益率涨1.68个基点，报3.5771%，美股早盘也一度从3.5770%一线 拉升，刷新日高至3.6082%；30年期美债收益率涨1.82个基点，报4.81%，一度从4.79%下方反弹至 4.83%上方。2/10年期美债收益率利差涨1.627个基点，刷新日高至+58.908个基点，逼近9月5日顶部 +60.774个基点、9月3日顶部+63.867个基点。10年期通胀保值国债（TIPS）收益率涨3.57个基点，至 1.8803%；两年期TIPS收益率涨4.17个基点，至1.0940%，逼近8月21日报价1.1426%；30年期TIPS收益 率涨2.04个基点，至2.5895%。7:45 2024/12/17 ++Revised 3:32 2025/10/24 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields, highlighting a temporary cooling of investor expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Treasury Yield Movements - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose by 3.32 basis points to 4.1682%, with an intraday trading range of 4.1273% to 4.1897% [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield increased by 1.68 basis points to 3.5771%, reaching a daily high of 3.6082% [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield saw a rise of 1.82 basis points to 4.81%, rebounding from below 4.79% to above 4.83% [1] Group 2: Yield Spread and Inflation-Protected Securities - The spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields increased by 1.627 basis points, reaching a daily high of +58.908 basis points, approaching previous highs of +60.774 and +63.867 basis points [1] - The yield on the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) rose by 3.57 basis points to 1.8803% [1] - The 2-year TIPS yield increased by 4.17 basis points to 1.0940%, nearing the August 21 quote of 1.1426% [1] - The 30-year TIPS yield rose by 2.04 basis points to 2.5895% [1]

现货黄金： 12月8日，消息面：本周焦点无疑锁定在美联储的利率决议上。市场普遍预期美联储将实施25个基点的 降息，这将是连续第三次放松货币政策，但投资者对未来宽松路径的分歧日益加剧。结合美国最新经济 数据、通胀表现以及多位美联储官员的鸽派表态，金价虽获支撑却遇阻力，美债收益率大涨反映出鹰派 降息预期，而美元则在区间内震荡。市场越来越相信美联储即将采取降息措施，这导致美元略有走弱， 从而利好黄金。然而，黄金也面临强阻力位压制，同时美债收益率持续走高并刷新逾两周高位，进一步 拖累了金价。此外，随着买家等待现货价格回调，印度和中国等主要市场的实物黄金需求在本周有所减 弱，这也加剧了金价的下行压力。 多单：激进4164/57区间进场，稳健等4137/44区间再做；止损：各12美元，目标20/40美金！ WTI原油： 消息面：油价在周一亚洲早盘维持平稳，布伦特原油徘徊在每桶64美元下方，西德克萨斯中间基原油稳 定在60美元附近。市场对印度从俄罗斯持续吸收原油的关注度升高，尤其是在能源紧缩背景下，该因素 有效支撑了短线价格。供应紧缩因素再次强化。近期乌克兰针对俄罗斯能源设施的行动再度加剧供应波 动，其中黑海地区的CPC终 ...

Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of November, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,464 billion, an increase of $30 billion from the end of October, marking a rise of 0.09% and the highest level since December 2015 [1][2] - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to the combined effects of exchange rate fluctuations and asset price changes, with the dollar index experiencing a slight decline of 0.29% in November [2][3] - The reserves have remained above $3.3 trillion for four consecutive months, with a significant increase of $144 billion compared to the end of the previous year, driven by the depreciation of the dollar and a decline in U.S. Treasury yields [2][3] Group 2: Gold Reserves - China's official gold reserves increased to 7.412 million ounces by the end of November, marking the 13th consecutive month of increases, although the increment has been at a low level for the past nine months [1][4] - The price of gold rose from $4,000 per ounce at the end of October to $4,200 per ounce in November, influenced by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical risks [4][5] - The central bank's continued small-scale purchases of gold signal an intention to optimize international reserves, with a recommendation to reduce U.S. Treasury holdings while increasing gold reserves [5][6] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The stability of foreign exchange reserves is expected to continue, supported by a solid economic foundation and favorable conditions in China's economy, including a recent reduction in tariffs on exports to the U.S. [3] - The ongoing adjustments in capital market access for foreign investors are anticipated to enhance the attractiveness of China's market [3] - The long-term fundamentals supporting gold prices remain unchanged, with expectations of continued upward pressure on gold due to geopolitical tensions and the depreciation of the dollar [4][5]

'()*+,|-./0+ 2025-12-07 !"#$%&'()!"*+,'- !"#$ !"#$ 徐闻宇 * xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 蔡劭立 ( 0755-23887993 * caishaoli@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 高聪 ( 021-60828524 * gaocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 %&'()*&+, -./01201121289 3 !"#$ 近期美债长端利率延续抬升，10年期收益率升至4.14%，曲线陡化特征明显。当前对降 息预期修正仍是影响美债价格的主要因素。短端受宽松预期支撑具下行趋势，但长端 在供给压力、经济韧性与资金面扰动下不确定性突出。需继续关注数据驱动的节奏波 动与长端风险溢价变化。 %&'( ■ !"#$ | 核心观点 1 | | | --- | --- | | 重点解读 3 | | | !"#$ | 4 | | !"%& | 5 | | '()%& | 5 | | *+, | 6 | | !- ...

东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，受12月美联储降息预期升温、日本央行短期内加息概率上升等因素 带动，11月美元指数小幅下跌。这会带动中国外汇储备中非美元资产升值，小幅推高外汇储备规模。与 此同时，"美联储降息预期升温还带动当月美债收益率下行，美债价格走高，也会增加中国外汇储备月 末估值。"王青说。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬分析指出，中国稳步推进资本市场自主开放，对配置型外资准入实行绿 色通道等举措，有利于提升对境外投资者的吸引力，"中国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，是 外汇储备规模保持基本稳定的根本支撑"。(完) 中新社北京12月7日电 (陶思阅)中国国家外汇管理局(下称"国家外汇局")7日发布统计数据显示，截至 2025年11月末，中国外汇储备规模为33464亿美元，较10月末上升30亿美元，升幅为0.09%。 国家外汇局表示，11月，受主要经济体宏观经济数据、货币政策预期等因素影响，美元指数下跌，全球 金融资产价格涨跌互现。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上升。中国经济 保持总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势，为外汇储备规模保持基本稳定提供支撑。 ...

两项重要数据今日出炉。 12月7日，国家外汇管理局公布数据显示，截至2025年11月末，我国外汇储备规模为33464亿美元，较10月末上升30亿美元，升幅为0.09%。 另据中国人民银行同日公布的数据，截至11月末，我国黄金储备为7412万盎司，环比增加3万盎司，已是连续第13个月增持黄金。 | Official reserve assets | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025.01 2025.02 2025.03 2025.04 2025.05 2025.06 | | 2025.07 | | 2025.08 | | 2025.09 | | 2025.10 | | 2025.11 | | 2025.12 | | | 项目 Item 《关完 (ZSDR 亿黄元 U.SDR 亿翼元 (ZSDR 《黄元 CZSDR 亿美元 Z.SDR 乙黄元 | CSDR | 《乙黄元 | CSDR | 乙黄元 | ZSDR | ...

美国国债结束了八个月以来表现最差的一周，10年期和30年期收益率出现自4月份以来最大单周涨幅， 其中10年期收益率收于4.14%。市场抛售的主要驱动因素是相互矛盾的经济数据（尤其是劳动力市场） 以及加速至2.8%的通胀数据，这使得投资者对美联储明年将进行额外降息的预期转为怀疑和"鹰派"。此 外，美国政府本周关于美联储领导层人事变动的评论（如财政部长提出地区银行行长应有居住地要求） 加剧了市场不确定性，也对美债价格走势产生了影响。 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周五（12月5日），美债收益率集体上涨，3年期美债收益率涨3.97个基点报3.584%，5年 期美债收益率涨3.85个基点报3.711%，10年期美债收益率涨3.89个基点报4.137%，30年期美债收益率涨 3.91个基点报4.792%。 ...