Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the market volatility triggered by Trump's comments regarding the potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which was later denied by Trump [2] - The spot gold market experienced significant fluctuations, reaching a high of $3377.53 per ounce and a low of $3319.72 per ounce, ultimately closing at $3347.42 per ounce [2] - Current trading strategies for spot gold suggest a range-bound approach, with a trading range identified between $3335.00 and $3358.00, recommending buying low and selling high within this range [3] Group 2 - The spot silver market is also in a consolidation phase, with a trading range identified between $37.490 and $38.090, suggesting similar high-low trading strategies [5] - If the silver market breaks below the support level of $37.490, it is advised to consider short positions with target prices set between $37.100 and $36.800 per ounce [5] - Conversely, if the market breaks above the resistance level of $38.090, it is recommended to pursue long positions with target prices potentially reaching $38.500 to $38.800 per ounce [6]

有关美国总统特朗普即将解雇美联储主席鲍威尔的消息在7月16日引发市场剧烈波动：长期美债收益率 和通胀预期飙升，股市和美元大幅下跌。随后，特朗普迅速表示自己"极不可能"试图罢免鲍威尔，仍认 为鲍威尔的政策宽松步伐不够快，市场部分回稳。 当前市场普遍认为，特朗普未必会真正落实现有的关税或人事威胁，因此5%的收益率门槛仍具有一定 支撑，尤其是因为短期通胀预期仍处于相对温和水平。虽然5月份两年期盈亏平衡通胀率曾升至约 3.4%，但随着几份通胀数据表现尚可，该指标已回落至2.7%左右。 然而，如果特朗普确实在美联储或贸易方面采取激进行动，通胀预期将被推高，整个收益率曲线也将随 之上移。此外，长期利率对通胀不确定性的反应最为敏感，曲线倾向进一步变陡。不过，若鲍威尔真的 被撤职，引发的市场波动可能更偏向利率下行的风险。 分析师认为，特朗普正在试探罢免鲍威尔的可能性。市场的剧烈反应似乎让他暂时收回了相关言论，但 白宫与美联储之间进一步升级冲突的风险正在上升。 媒体报道，到目前为止，5%的收益率水平一直充当着30年期美债的上限。但如果特朗普真的付诸行 动，解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，或是如近期相关信函中所暗示的那样，对贸易伙伴征收更 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June, exceeding market expectations and marking the largest increase since February [1] - Core CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, slightly below expectations but still higher than the previous value, indicating inflationary pressures [1] - Analysts suggest that the recent rebound in prices is significantly influenced by the U.S. government's trade policies, particularly the increase or threat of increased tariffs on major trading partners [3] Group 2 - Following the inflation data release, there was a call from the U.S. President for a 3% interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which sparked criticism regarding interference with the central bank's independence [3] - Market expectations for a rate cut in July have diminished, with a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain rates, and a reduced likelihood of a cut in September to around 50% [3] - The inflation rebound and cooling rate cut expectations have led to a sell-off in the U.S. bond market, with the 30-year Treasury yield surpassing 5% and the 10-year yield approaching 4.5% [3] Group 3 - The simultaneous decline in U.S. stocks and bonds has put pressure on the dollar, resulting in a rare situation where U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar are all under pressure [3] - Analysts warn of the potential risk of a "triple whammy" affecting stocks, bonds, and currency if inflation exceeds expectations, particularly as high valuations in the stock market may face downward adjustments due to slowing growth expectations [3]

Group 1 - The latest US PPI data indicates a cooling in wholesale price index for June, with expectations of a 0.2% month-on-month increase and a 2.5% year-on-year increase [1] - Following the PPI release, US Treasury yields declined across all maturities except for the 4-month short-term debt, with the 2-year yield down by 2.3 basis points to 3.936%, the 10-year yield down by 2.6 basis points to 4.463%, and the 30-year yield also down by 2.6 basis points to 4.992% [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for June showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with a notable drop in service prices offsetting the rise in gasoline prices [3] Group 2 - The core PPI, excluding volatile food and energy components, remained flat compared to May, with the annual rate slowing from 3.2% to 2.6% [3] - The UK inflation rate for June reached 3.6%, exceeding expectations, with the core inflation rate rising to 3.7% [4] - In the Asia-Pacific market, long-term Japanese government bonds saw a decline in yields, with the 10-year yield down by 1.7 basis points to 1.573% [4] Group 3 - The US Treasury issued a $65 billion 17-week short-term debt on Wednesday and plans to issue $170 billion in two bond offerings on Thursday, including $90 billion and $80 billion in 4-week and 8-week short-term debts respectively [6]

Group 1 - The international gold price increased due to the decline in the US dollar and US Treasury yields, as investors digested last month's consumer price increase data and awaited further clarity on President Trump's trade policies [1] - The US dollar index fell from a one-month high, making gold more attractive to holders of other currencies, while rising US inflation strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve would maintain current interest rates for a longer period [1] - The probability of a rate cut in September dropped from nearly 60% before the data release to about 52% [1] Group 2 - The gold market showed signs of weakness, with the first resistance level at 3343-45, but the lowest point reached was only 3333, indicating limited downward momentum [3] - The current trend remains unchanged, with a short bearish outlook retained, but upcoming data releases may lead to fluctuations in gold prices [3] - The hourly moving averages have flattened, indicating a stalemate in short-term bullish and bearish trends, with key resistance levels at 3343 and 3355 [3][5]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that after the release of the US PPI data, US Treasury bonds experienced a slight increase, with the 2-year Treasury yield declining by over 1 basis point, currently reported at 3.934% [1]

策略师：美债收益率可能维持在当前水平附近 金十数据7月16日讯，Exness策略师在报告中表示，美国国债收益率仍处于高位，且可能维持在当前水 平附近。对美联储降息的预期降温，是收益率居高不下的原因之一。与此同时，要求美联储降息的政治 压力让前景变得不明朗。策略师指出，若在要求罢免美联储主席鲍威尔的呼声中，市场对美联储独立性 的信心受到削弱，那么国债收益率有可能进一步上升。特朗普总统加剧了对鲍威尔主席的批评，将美联 储总部建设超支问题与可能对其进行罢免联系起来。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-16 通胀符合预期，贵⾦属短线延续震荡 美国6⽉CPI数据同环⽐皆有回升，但幅度符合预期，基数效应较低、能源 价格阶段性回升以及关税传导的部分体现共同推升通胀，数据公布后降息 预期变动不⼤，美元及美债收益率短线⾛⾼，对贵⾦属价格形成⼀定压 制。短期⻩⾦预计维持区间震荡，中⻓期看多观点不变。⽩银在40美元关 ⼝受阻后，短线震荡回落。中期维持对⽩银趋势看多，弹性谨慎的观点。 重点资讯： 1）美国6月未季调CPI同比升2.7%，为2月以来新高，预期升2. 7%，前值升2.4%；季调后CPI环比升0.3%，预期升0.3%，前值升0. 1%。未季调核心CPI同比升2.9%，预期升3.0%，前值升2.8%；季调后 核心CPI环比升0.2%，预期升0.3%，前值升0.1%。 2）美国7月纽约联储制造业指数5.5，预期-9，前值-16。其中，制造 业就业指数9.2，前值增4.7；制造业新订单指数2.0，前值-14.2； 制造业物价获得指数25.7，前值26.6。 3）美国财政部长贝森特建议，美联储主席鲍威尔在2026年5月卸任时 同时 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent rise in US CPI data has led to a rebound in inflation, providing support for the gold market amid ongoing trade tariff policies from Trump [2] - The spot gold market experienced fluctuations after the CPI data release, with a low of $3320.22 per ounce and a closing price of $3324.65 per ounce [2] - Current trading in the Asian market is stable, with gold prices hovering around $3330.00 per ounce, indicating a cautious market sentiment [2] Group 2 - The spot gold market is currently in a consolidation phase, with a trading range identified between $3321.00 and $3332.00, suggesting a strategy of buying low and selling high within this range [3] - If the market breaks below $3321.00, a short position may be considered with target levels set at $3311.00 to $3301.00 per ounce [3] - Conversely, if the market breaks above $3332.00, a long position could be initiated with target levels aimed at $3342.00 to $3352.00 per ounce [3] Group 3 - The spot silver market is also in a consolidation phase, with a trading range identified between $37.560 and $37.850, allowing for a similar buy low and sell high strategy [5] - A break below $37.560 could prompt the establishment of short positions, targeting price levels of $37.100 to $36.800 per ounce [5] - If the market successfully breaks above $37.850, long positions may be pursued with target levels of $38.100 to $38.400 per ounce [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the upcoming US copper tariff and the current off - season, while being affected by the tight copper raw material situation[2]. - The aluminum price may oscillate weakly in the short term because of the potential increase in aluminum ingot supply and the off - season downstream demand[4]. - The lead price shows a relatively strong trend overall, but the increase of Shanghai lead is expected to be limited under the pressure of weak domestic consumption[5]. - The zinc price is expected to be bearish in the medium - long term due to the abundant supply, but may show an oscillating trend in the short term influenced by market sentiment[6]. - The tin price is predicted to oscillate weakly in the short term as supply and demand are balanced with the strengthening expectation of Myanmar's tin mine复产[7]. - The nickel price is recommended to be shorted at high levels as the valuation of nickel price relative to nickel - iron has risen to a relatively high level[8]. - The lithium carbonate price may face pressure as supply is expected to remain high despite short - term rebounds[9]. - The alumina price is expected to be shorted at high levels considering the over - capacity situation, with the ore price as the core factor[11]. - The stainless steel market is in an off - season with limited demand and reduced trading activity[13]. - The casting aluminum alloy price has significant upward resistance due to the off - season and large spot - futures price difference[16]. Summaries by Metals Copper - Market performance: LME copper closed up 0.15% to $9657/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 78070 yuan/ton. The LME inventory increased by 850 tons to 110475 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio dropped to 11.4%. The domestic Shanghai copper warehouse receipt increased by 1600 tons to 50000 tons[2]. - Outlook: The copper price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the Shanghai copper main contract operating in the range of 77200 - 78600 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of $9500 - 9720/ton[2]. Aluminum - Market performance: LME aluminum closed down 0.52% to $2583/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20390 yuan/ton. The Shanghai aluminum weighted contract position decreased by 9000 hands to 636000 hands, and the futures warehouse receipt increased by 1600 tons to 70000 tons[4]. - Outlook: The aluminum price may oscillate weakly in the short term, with the domestic main contract operating in the range of 20200 - 20550 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2550 - 2610/ton[4]. Lead - Market performance: The Shanghai lead index closed down 0.88% to 16946 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell by $28.5 to $1988.5/ton. The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 60000 tons[5]. - Outlook: The lead price shows a relatively strong trend, but the increase of Shanghai lead is limited under weak domestic consumption[5]. Zinc - Market performance: The Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.73% to 22070 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell by $27.5 to $2711.5/ton. The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 93100 tons[6]. - Outlook: The zinc price is bearish in the medium - long term and may oscillate in the short term[6]. Tin - Market performance: The tin price oscillated. The combined operating rate of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 54.07%. The national main market tin ingot social inventory decreased by 110 tons to 9644 tons as of July 11, 2025[7]. - Outlook: The tin price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the domestic tin price operating in the range of 250000 - 280000 yuan/ton and LME tin price in the range of $31000 - 35000/ton[7]. Nickel - Market performance: The nickel price rebounded at night. The main contradiction lies in the stainless - steel production line. The nickel - iron production profit is extremely low, and the ore price has weakened recently[8]. - Outlook: The nickel price is recommended to be shorted at high levels, with the Shanghai nickel main contract operating in the range of 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the corresponding range[8]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed up 1.26%. The LC2509 contract closed up 0.27%[9]. - Outlook: The lithium carbonate price may face pressure, with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange LC2509 contract operating in the range of 64800 - 68200 yuan/ton[9]. Alumina - Market performance: The alumina index rose 0.61% to 3143 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Guizhou and Shanxi increased. The import window is closed, and the futures warehouse receipt increased by 6900 tons to 25500 tons[11]. - Outlook: The alumina price is recommended to be shorted at high levels, with the domestic main contract AO2509 operating in the range of 2850 - 3300 yuan/ton[11]. Stainless Steel - Market performance: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12695 yuan/ton, down 0.16%. The social inventory increased to 1167500 tons, with the 300 - series inventory increasing by 3.12%[13]. - Outlook: The stainless - steel market is in an off - season with limited demand[13]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market performance: The AD2511 contract fell 0.08% to 19790 yuan/ton. The domestic mainstream ADC12 average price remained flat, and the inventory in three regions increased by 900 tons to 27600 tons[15][16]. - Outlook: The casting aluminum alloy price has significant upward resistance[16].