来源：中国新闻周刊 黄金牛市是否会持续 消费者还要买金吗？ 1月26日，现货黄金、白银均迎来大涨。现货黄金开盘突破5000美元/盎司关口，日内一度触及5110．25 美元/盎司，截至18时04分，现价5079.21美元/盎司，日内涨幅近2%。前一周，现货黄金连涨5个交易 日，接连站上4700、4800、4900美元关口。 现货白银也迎开盘大涨，截至18时04分，现价109.18美元/盎司，日内涨幅超6%。受贵金属大涨影响，1 月26日，A股黄金股集体高开，不少贵金属题材股票涨停。 此外，地缘政治与政策的不确定性也催生了避险需求。华夏基金高级策略分析师陈彦冰对《中国新闻周 刊》表示，当前全球秩序正处于深刻调整期，近日，特朗普政府提出的关税政策、格陵兰岛争端与北约 裂痕，以及委内瑞拉风波等地缘事件，都加剧了市场的避险情绪。 "黄金突破5000美元/盎司，或许正是全球宏观经济范式转变的缩影。"陈彦冰说。 据世界黄金协会数据，截至2025年第三季度末，全球官方黄金储备余额约3.69万亿美元，占官方总储备 比重达28.9%，创2000年以来新高。与此同时，IMF数据显示，美元在全球外汇储备占比创1995年以来 最低，跌 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. dollar has fallen to a four-month low, influenced by potential interventions from Japan to support its currency [3] - The Japanese yen experienced a nearly 3% increase following reports of coordinated actions to stabilize the currency, indicating market reactions to fiscal policy concerns [4] - The weakening of the dollar is typically associated with Japan selling dollars to buy yen during currency market interventions [4] Group 2 - As the U.S. dollar weakens and macroeconomic uncertainty rises, there has been a significant surge in stablecoin trading volume [5] - The anxiety surrounding the dollar's value has led to increased interest in alternative assets like Bitcoin, reflecting broader concerns about currency debasement [2]

[ 本周，美联储将召开联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议。市场普遍预期本次会议将维持货币政策不 变，甚至认为3月会议降息25个基点的可能性微乎其微。当前，市场的焦点已转向特朗普即将公布的新 任美联储主席提名人选，以及该人选未来能否动员并说服委员会推动进一步降息。 ] 进入2026年，美国宏观政策正悬在两个致命的"不确定性"之上：其一是最高法院对总统关税权力的最终 裁决，其二则是美联储主席鲍威尔的继任人选。 从本周起，美国最高法院步入长达四周的休庭期，这意味着备受关注的关税案进入了昂贵的"空窗期"。 与此同时，美联储新任主席的竞争则来到"白热化"阶段，资产管理巨头贝莱德的高管里德（Rick Rieder）被视为当前的领跑者。 这两大议题共同构成了当前市场研判的核心变量。全球投资咨询公司BCA Research首席新兴市场/中国 策略师阿瑟·布达吉安（Arthur Budaghyan）对第一财经记者表示，在充分评估上述两大事件的不同情境 后，他的核心观点是"看空美元、减持美股，并对包括美股在内的全球股票市场持谨慎态度"。 目前，美国政府已在权衡使用其他法律工具，例如美国1974年《贸易法》第122条，该条款允许因 ...

智通财经APP获悉，在全球宏观政策不确定性加剧的背景下，本周国际市场资产走势出现显著分化，反映出投资者在应对美元走弱时的避险逻辑发生转变。 受美国可能参与美日协同干预汇市的预期推动，美元指数持续承压走软，这一趋势直接为大宗商品市场注入了强劲的上行动能。以铜为首的基准金属价格延 续涨势，计价货币美元的系统性贬值正不断推高资源类资产的估值上限。 市场分析认为，当前的工业金属飙升已不仅局限于供需层面的博弈，更多表现为资金在美元信用风险累积背景下，对具有实体价值的"硬通货"进行的战略性 配置。 与实物资产的火热景象形成鲜明对比的是，加密货币市场在新的一周开局不利。尽管比特币常被冠以"数字黄金"之名，但在近期地缘政治局势高度紧张、多 国贸易摩擦升温的极端环境下，其避险属性表现出明显的不稳定性。 由于地缘局势动荡引发了投机性资金对流动性收紧的警惕，比特币价格在波动中走势蹒跚。比特币上周日大幅下跌，本周开局不稳，周一亚洲早盘虽小幅反 弹但仍显脆弱。全球地缘政治紧张局势促使投资者从风险资产转向黄金等避险资产。 具体来说，这个最大加密货币上周日一度下跌3.5%，跌至2026年以来最低点，略高于86000美元，随后回升至8773 ...

今日，现货黄金历史首次突破5000美元/盎司整数大关，白银涨破108美元续刷新高。 截止发稿，现货黄金涨幅扩大至1.87%，刷新历史新高至5081美元/盎司，本月累涨超730美元。现货白 银涨超5%，刷新历史高点至每盎司108.962美元，月内暴涨超50%。现货铂金首次站上2890美元/盎司， 今年首月累涨约40%。 | 代码 名称 | | 米幅 | 派进失 | 现价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002155 湖南黄金 | | +10.01% | +2.30 | 25.27 | | | 002237 恒邦股份 | | +10.00% | +1.72 | 18.92 | | | 300139 晓程科技 | | +9.37% | +4.14 | 48.22 | | | 600489 中全黄金 | | +8.33% | +2.50 | 32.50 | | | 002716 湖南白银 | | +7.85% | +1.29 | 17.73 | | | 000506 招令黄金 | | +7.70% | +1.50 | 20.98 | | | 001337 四 黄 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged, reaching an unprecedented high of $5043, marking the first time it has crossed the $5000 threshold, while silver has also seen significant gains [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest report, spot gold hit $5043, reflecting a notable increase, while spot silver rose by over 1.12% [1]. - The opening price for gold was $5013.4, with a trading volume of 23,500 contracts [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The relationship between gold and the US dollar is typically inverse; as the dollar depreciates, gold prices tend to rise due to its status as a benchmark currency in the international market [3]. - The ongoing expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve supports gold's investment appeal, especially as other financial assets yield lower returns [3]. - Gold's intrinsic value as a hedge against inflation is increasingly relevant amid global fiscal imbalances, raising concerns about long-term inflation [3]. - Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and ongoing conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine situation, have further fueled gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3][5]. Group 3: Geopolitical Context - The Israeli military is on high alert due to escalating tensions in the region, particularly concerning potential US military actions against Iran, which could have broader implications [4]. - The combination of geopolitical instability and expectations of monetary easing from the Federal Reserve is contributing to the bullish trend in gold and silver prices [5].

Core View - The central conclusion of Goldman Sachs' 2026 Global FX Outlook is that the US dollar is expected to depreciate moderately, with a cyclical pattern in the global currency market leading to significant differentiation in currency performance [1][2]. Dollar Outlook - The report maintains the view that the relative economic advantage of the US is diminishing, which will contribute to a long-term weakening of the dollar. After a significant drop in 2025, the dollar is anticipated to stabilize due to unexpected resilience in the US economy and a slowdown in policy adjustments [2][6]. - In 2026, the dollar will face opposing forces: robust global economic growth and more balanced asset returns will exert downward pressure, while the dollar remains overvalued by approximately 15%, supported by higher-than-consensus US growth expectations [2][8]. - The expected depreciation of the dollar in 2026 will be less severe than in 2025, with pro-cyclical currencies leading the downward trend [2][10]. Major Currency Outlook - **G10 Currencies**: The euro is projected to approach fair value after leading in 2025, with expectations of EUR/USD moving towards 1.25 due to increased fiscal spending in Germany and a weaker dollar [5][34]. The Japanese yen is expected to strengthen moderately, supported by narrowing interest rate differentials, but with increased volatility [42]. The British pound is likely to continue underperforming relative to European peers due to fiscal tightening and a weak economic outlook [49][55]. - **Emerging Market Currencies**: Pro-cyclical and undervalued currencies, as well as high-yield currencies from emerging markets, are identified as key investment opportunities for 2026. The South Korean won, New Taiwan dollar, and Malaysian ringgit are expected to outperform high-yield currencies due to supportive economic conditions in China [3][5]. - **Latin America and Africa**: Currencies like the Brazilian real and South African rand are expected to gain attention due to their cyclical attributes and interest rate buffers, while the Turkish lira and Colombian peso may experience increased volatility due to political uncertainties [5][3]. Market Opportunities and Risks - Investment opportunities in 2026 will focus on pro-cyclical currencies, undervalued currencies, and high-yield emerging market currencies, with attention to cross-border M&A-related currency fluctuations [3][67]. - The report highlights that low implied volatility in the forex market may rise, providing cost advantages for directional trading [3][67]. However, risks include unexpected US economic performance, geopolitical conflicts, and policy adjustments that could lead to currency fluctuations [3][5].

Group 1 - Gold is expected to have its best week in nearly six years, reaching nearly $5000 per ounce, while the dollar faces its worst week since June, dropping over 1% [1][4] - Silver is hovering just below its historical high of $100 per ounce, indicating strong demand for precious metals amid geopolitical uncertainties [1] - The crisis over Greenland has reignited concerns about political risks associated with U.S. assets, traditionally seen as a safe haven for global capital [6][8] Group 2 - The recent events have led to a shift in investor sentiment towards the dollar, with a notable increase in the demand for hedging against dollar exposure [5][10] - The Swiss franc and euro have both appreciated against the dollar, with the Swiss franc rising 1.6% and the euro increasing 1.2%, reflecting a search for alternative safe havens [9] - Analysts suggest that the credibility of U.S. policy has diminished, which may strengthen predictions of further dollar depreciation [10]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of diversifying investment portfolios with both gold and Bitcoin, suggesting a 15% allocation to each as proposed by Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, due to the ongoing devaluation of the US dollar driven by rising federal debt and persistent deficit spending [1] Group 1: Market Downturns - Historical data shows that during major market downturns, gold has provided a buffer against losses, while Bitcoin has experienced significant declines. For instance, in 2018, the stock market fell by 19.34%, Bitcoin dropped by 40.29%, while gold increased by 5.76% [2] - In 2020, the stock market saw a decline of 33.79% due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with Bitcoin falling by 38.10% and gold only decreasing by 3.63% [3] - The 2022 market downturn, influenced by rising inflation and aggressive interest rate hikes, resulted in a 24.18% drop in the stock market, a 59.87% decline in Bitcoin, and an 8.95% decrease in gold [3] - In 2025, during a market correction due to trade war announcements, the stock market fell by 16.66%, Bitcoin decreased by 24.39%, while gold rose by 5.97% [3] Group 2: Market Recoveries - Following market downturns, Bitcoin has shown remarkable recovery potential. For example, after the 2018 downturn, Bitcoin surged by 78.99% in the subsequent year, while gold rose by 18.14% [4] - In 2020, after government stimulus measures, Bitcoin rebounded by 774.94%, compared to a 111.92% increase in gold [4] - In 2023, with inflation decreasing and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, Bitcoin increased by nearly 40.16%, while gold rose by 17.53% [5] Group 3: Portfolio Performance Analysis - A comprehensive analysis indicates that a portfolio including both gold and Bitcoin offers the best balance between cushioning market downturns and enhancing returns during recoveries. The combined portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of 0.679, significantly higher than the traditional 60/40 portfolio's ratio of 0.237 [6] - While a portfolio solely consisting of Bitcoin has the highest Sharpe ratio of 0.875, it also exhibits greater volatility compared to a portfolio that includes both gold and Bitcoin [6] - The average returns and drawdowns for various portfolio configurations highlight the benefits of including both assets, with the traditional portfolio plus 15% gold showing a smaller average drawdown of -12.73% compared to -18.94% for a portfolio with 15% Bitcoin [8]

Core Viewpoint - The potential devaluation of the US dollar is seen as a "market stress scenario" that could lead to broader and more severe financial market turmoil, particularly affecting capital flows towards Asian markets [1][3]. Group 1: Causes of Dollar Devaluation - The chief economist of AMRO, He Dong, explains that during normalized periods, capital typically flows to Asia when the Federal Reserve eases monetary policy, while tightening usually results in capital outflows. However, the current situation requires a distinction between "normalized responses" and "market stress scenarios" [3]. - If the dollar's devaluation is perceived as a sign of diminished independence of the Federal Reserve, it may lead to unexpected market volatility, differing significantly from historical patterns of asset price movements [3][4]. - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the transition towards a "multipolar world" is raising questions about the dollar's status, with US policies under President Trump being pivotal in determining the extent of the global shift away from the dollar [3][5]. Group 2: Political and Economic Factors - Concerns about the scale of US debt and its long-term repayment capacity are growing, compounded by Trump's use of tariffs as a political bargaining tool, which has strained NATO relations and increased policy uncertainty [4]. - The political pressure faced by the Federal Reserve Chairman and challenges to the independence of US institutions are casting a shadow over the dollar's future [4][5]. - The upcoming midterm elections in November 2026 and the nomination agenda for a new Federal Reserve Chairman are expected to heighten market concerns regarding the dollar [5]. Group 3: Financial Market Implications - He Dong emphasizes the importance of ensuring that financial institutions in the region have sufficient buffers to cope with potential market volatility, as the dollar is a crucial financing currency and Asian investors hold significant risk exposure to dollar assets [6]. - AMRO has placed "increased global financial market volatility" at the center of its risk assessment, indicating a medium level of potential impact and likelihood [6]. - The latest AMRO report highlights that global stock valuations remain high and credit spreads low, making the market particularly vulnerable to shifts in risk sentiment, with geopolitical tensions potentially leading to unexpected fluctuations in exchange rates and asset prices [7].