Group 1 - The U.S. government is pushing for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve to mitigate potential economic recession risks caused by tariff policies [1][2] - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill aims to stimulate the economy by increasing government debt and potentially lowering interest costs through rate cuts [2][3] - If the Federal Reserve does not cut rates, it may lead to a significant increase in the federal deficit, while premature rate cuts could trigger inflation and reduce demand for U.S. Treasury bonds [2][3] Group 2 - The depreciation of the U.S. dollar, which has fallen approximately 10.8% this year, is increasing inflationary pressures due to tariffs [2][3] - Historical data suggests that a weaker dollar combined with high tariffs will likely impact U.S. prices, as seen in previous administrations [3][4] - Concerns are rising regarding the quality of U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, with an increase in estimated data affecting inflation accuracy [4] Group 3 - Recent employment data shows a significant increase in non-farm payrolls, indicating that the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates may be justified [4] - The ongoing conflict between the White House and the Federal Reserve could introduce more uncertainty into the market, particularly with the potential impact of immigration policies on employment data [4]

美联储的困境在于，它必须耐心等待，如果在关税引发的价格压力显现时已经降息，那么它不得不重新 采取激进的加息政策。但是，如果未来通胀并未出现而将利率持续维持在高位，则可能会对美国经济产 生冲击，并损害其劳动力市场。迄今为止，美国物价保持温和状态，价格上涨尚未出现，这让白宫更有 底气要求降息。 随着美国"大而美"税收与支出法案审议的推进，美国白宫在最近几周加大了对美联储及其主席鲍威尔的 抨击。美国总统特朗普要求立即降息，并威胁提前宣布美联储主席鲍威尔的继任人选。这让本就受所 谓"对等关税"影响的美联储降息决策进一步政治化，给全球经济带来不确定性。 鲍威尔拒绝白宫提出的降息建议，主要是担心关税导致通胀重新抬头。鲍威尔是特朗普总统在第一任期 内任命的美联储主席，但是，2022年美联储错误判断了通胀形势，没有对物价上涨做出及时的加息决 定。现在，鲍威尔不想重蹈覆辙。这是因为，美国政府加征的关税反映到美国消费价格上可能会有传导 滞后效应，预计会体现在6月、7月和8月的数据之中。 特朗普表示将在未来几个月内提前宣布美联储主席鲍威尔的继任人选。而这可能会被国际投资者解读为 央行失去独立性，美元的信用被大幅削弱。今年以来，美元 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the weakening outlook for the US dollar due to the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and the recent passage of the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill by the US Senate, leading to a decline in the dollar index by over 7% since April [1][2] - The article notes that the offshore RMB has appreciated against the dollar, reaching a high of 7.1493, while other Asian currencies have also strengthened, indicating a broader trend of non-USD currency appreciation [2][3] - The report emphasizes that the Hong Kong stock market is becoming a new safe haven for global capital, driven by its low absolute valuations and improving corporate governance, which is attracting more funds [4][5] Group 2 - The article discusses the potential for a significant increase in the fiscal deficit in the US, with the Senate's version of the tax bill expected to expand the deficit by $3.9 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [2][3] - It mentions that the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor) has dropped significantly, with the one-month rate falling to 0.52% and the overnight rate nearing 0%, indicating a strong liquidity environment in the market [4] - The article points out that the valuation of the Hang Seng Index is significantly lower than that of the US market, with a forecasted P/E ratio of 11 times and a dividend yield of 3.2%, making it an attractive option for international capital seeking to escape the dollar [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The global market is closely monitoring the outcome of the US tariff negotiations, which are expected to influence market pricing for July [1][5]. Group 1: US Tariff Negotiations and Market Impact - The deadline for the resumption of tariffs on July 9 has led to increased uncertainty, with the Senate passing a significant tax and spending bill, causing a generally pessimistic outlook for the US dollar [2][7]. - Since the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" in April, the US dollar index has dropped over 7%, while Asian currencies have collectively rebounded to new highs since October of the previous year [2][5]. - The market is showing a clear risk-averse tendency, with defensive assets becoming a primary choice for some investors due to the uncertainty surrounding US tariffs [3][10]. Group 2: Currency Movements and Economic Indicators - As of July 2, the US dollar index remained around 96, while the offshore RMB appreciated to around 7.15 against the dollar, marking its highest level since November [6]. - Other Asian currencies, including the Malaysian ringgit, South Korean won, and Thai baht, have also reached their highest points since October, with the Singapore dollar hitting a 10-year high [6]. Group 3: Hong Kong Market as a Safe Haven - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to attract more capital inflows due to its relatively low absolute valuations and improving corporate governance [3][12]. - Following the continuous depreciation of the US dollar, Hong Kong's Hibor rates have rapidly declined, with the one-month Hibor rate dropping to 0.52%, the lowest since data collection began in 2000 [11]. - The Hong Kong market is becoming a new "safe asset" stronghold, with significant international capital inflows anticipated as corporate governance reforms enhance shareholder returns [11][12]. Group 4: Valuation Comparisons - The Hong Kong stock market remains significantly undervalued compared to the US market, with the Hang Seng Index projected P/E ratio for 2025 at 11 times and a projected dividend yield of 3.2% [12]. - High dividend sectors such as banking, telecommunications, and utilities are expected to yield over 5%, making Hong Kong an attractive option for capital reallocating away from the US dollar [12].

Core Viewpoint - The global market is closely monitoring the outcome of the US tariff negotiations, which are expected to influence market pricing for July, with a general bearish outlook on the US dollar due to increased uncertainty surrounding tariffs and fiscal policies [2][4]. Group 1: US Tariff Negotiations and Dollar Outlook - The market is anticipating the results of the US tariff negotiations set for July 9, with a significant focus on the implications for the US dollar and non-US currencies [3][4]. - Since the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" in April, the US dollar index has declined over 7%, while Asian currencies have rebounded to new highs since October of the previous year [2][3]. - The Senate's passage of the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill is expected to exacerbate the US fiscal deficit, further impacting the dollar's sustainability [3][4]. Group 2: Defensive Assets and Hong Kong Market - In light of the uncertainty surrounding US trade policies, defensive assets have become a primary choice for investors, with the Hong Kong stock market positioned to attract more capital due to its low absolute valuations [2][6]. - The Hong Kong interbank offered rate (Hibor) has seen a significant decline, with one-month Hibor dropping to 0.52% and overnight Hibor nearing 0%, indicating strong market liquidity [7]. - The Hong Kong market is viewed as a new safe haven for global capital, with expectations of a multi-year depreciation cycle for the US dollar, leading to increased international investment in Hong Kong stocks [7][8]. Group 3: Valuation and Investment Trends in Hong Kong - The valuation of Hong Kong stocks remains significantly lower than that of US markets, with the Hang Seng Index projected to have a price-to-earnings ratio of 11 times and a dividend yield of 3.2% by 2025 [8]. - The influx of global and southbound capital is driving a revaluation of undervalued blue-chip stocks in Hong Kong, with notable growth in the Hong Kong central enterprise dividend ETF [8].

Core Viewpoint - The global capital markets are experiencing a rare and unusual phenomenon where both stock markets and commodities are rising simultaneously, despite the decline in oil and gold prices [1][4][7]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - Major global stock indices have seen significant increases, with the US stock market reaching historical highs after a downturn earlier in the year [1][4]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has stabilized above 3400 points, marking a new high for the year [1]. - European indices such as France's CAC40, Germany's DAX, and the UK's FTSE 100 have also shown positive performance [1]. Group 2: Commodity Market Trends - Commodities like copper, aluminum, and lead have experienced price increases, with copper prices surpassing $5 and aluminum reaching a three-month high [6][25]. - In contrast, oil and gold prices have declined, with Brent crude falling from $79 to $66 and gold dropping from 3452 to 3289 [8][9]. Group 3: Underlying Factors - The rise in global stock markets is closely linked to the depreciation of the US dollar, which has fallen from 101 to 97 since May [14][13]. - The US government's intention to weaken the dollar is aimed at reducing debt pressure and encouraging capital repatriation [16][15]. - The expectation of increased US debt and monetary easing by the Federal Reserve is driving market sentiment [22][21]. Group 4: Capital Flow Dynamics - The disparity in commodity price movements is influenced by US purchasing behavior, with the US prioritizing the accumulation of certain commodities while neglecting others like oil and gold [28][27]. - The capital flow towards commodities that the US is willing to stockpile indicates a strategic approach to manage future costs amid a weaker dollar [24][25]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The upcoming month of July is critical, with potential further interest rate cuts and significant legislative actions expected [35][34]. - The overall market sentiment is characterized by uncertainty, particularly regarding the credibility of the dollar and US debt [39][40]. - Despite the current stock market rally, there are concerns that it may be a prelude to a downturn, necessitating caution and preparation for potential risks [41][42].

Group 1: Dollar Depreciation and Global Financial Trends - The dollar is expected to depreciate by over 10% in the first half of 2025, marking the largest decline for this period since 1973 [1] - Despite the dollar's depreciation, central bank leaders believe that its status as the world's reserve currency is unlikely to change in the short term, with the dollar accounting for 58% of global foreign exchange reserves compared to 20% for the euro [1] - The market sentiment often diverges from actual performance, as evidenced by the strong performance of the US stock market despite predictions of a declining dollar [3] Group 2: Real Estate Market Concerns - A report from a major overseas bank indicates that real estate demand may decline by an additional 50%, which could significantly impact consumption and investment, given that approximately 60% of wealth is concentrated in real estate [5] Group 3: A-share Market Resilience - A-share market shows signs of resilience, with ETF fund flows shifting from net outflows to net inflows since June 13, indicating that smart money is quietly positioning itself [6] - The relationship between real estate and stock market investments suggests that as real estate becomes less attractive, funds will seek new opportunities in the stock market [8] Group 4: Retail Investor Challenges - Retail investors often fall into cognitive traps, such as equating stock price movements with trading activity, which can lead to misinterpretations of market trends [10] - The phenomenon of institutional buying not leading to stock price increases highlights the importance of trading activity over mere holding volume [10] - In a volatile market, institutions are continuously testing and adjusting their strategies, which can provide insights into the quality of their holdings [12] Group 5: Recommendations for Ordinary Investors - Ordinary investors are advised to focus on building their own investment analysis frameworks and utilizing professional quantitative tools to better understand market dynamics [14] - Emphasizing patience and discipline is crucial in navigating the complexities of the current financial landscape, where valuable data often lies in the details [14]

Core Viewpoint - The depreciation of the US dollar is expected to continue, creating upward pressure on Asian currencies, particularly in the second half of 2025 [1][5]. Group 1: Dollar Weakness and Asian Currency Strength - Goldman Sachs maintains a bearish outlook on the US dollar, predicting a decrease in marginal funds flowing into US assets and a gradual rotation towards non-US assets [1][2][5]. - Asian currencies, including the New Taiwan Dollar, South Korean Won, Singapore Dollar, and Malaysian Ringgit, have appreciated by approximately 5-10% against the US dollar this year, with this trend likely to continue into the summer [1]. Group 2: Specific Currency Insights - The South Korean Won is favored by Goldman Sachs, with expectations of continued strong performance due to recent political stability and government initiatives aimed at boosting market confidence [6]. - The New Taiwan Dollar is also expected to face further appreciation pressure, driven by significant accumulated US dollar deposits and unhedged overseas assets held by Taiwanese insurance companies [9]. - The Chinese Yuan is projected to receive support from resilient economic growth and positive developments in US-China trade negotiations, contributing to a stable exchange rate against the dollar [10]. - In contrast, the Indian Rupee is anticipated to lag behind other Asian currencies due to the Reserve Bank of India's potential actions to mitigate large short forward positions, limiting upward pressure on the currency [11].

Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The market anticipates three interest rate cuts within the year and five by the end of 2026, according to CME's FedWatch tool[3] - The Federal Reserve's rate cut pace may be more complex than the market's linear expectations due to unaccounted input inflation from a weaker dollar[4] - A 10% depreciation of the dollar could increase U.S. imports to approximately $3.6 trillion and widen the trade deficit beyond $1.2 trillion, raising inflationary pressures[4] Group 2: Inflation Dynamics - Historical data indicates that a declining dollar often leads to increased input inflation, which may have a lagging effect on prices[5] - The U.S. CPI year-on-year low point likely occurred in April or May, with expectations for inflation to rise above 3% by year-end if monthly CPI growth remains around 0.2%[5] - The impact of tariffs on inflation may take time to manifest, complicating the inflation outlook further[4] Group 3: Demand Response to Rate Cuts - Rate cuts may not stimulate demand as effectively as anticipated, as evidenced by the slow recovery in the Eurozone despite over 200 basis points of cuts since 2024[6] - The wealth effect from rate cuts could differ this time, as a significant portion of U.S. Treasury bonds is now held by the private sector, potentially dampening the positive impact on asset values[6] - If the Fed's rate cuts are insufficient, the net financial cost for companies may actually increase, countering the intended benefits of lower rates[7]

1～6月美元贬值10.7%，以半年为单位来看，与广场协议后的贬值幅度持平。在美国股市创出 新高、美国国债被回购的情况下，美元却在贬值。贬值的契机是特朗普的关税政策和美国财政隐忧，而 让贬值加剧的原因是…… 在外汇市场，美元的贬值仍未踩下刹车。1～6月美元的跌幅达到10%，以半年为单位来看，与广场协议 后的贬值幅度持平。美元贬值的契机是美国总统特朗普的高关税政策和美国财政隐忧，而美国以外投资 者的"汇率套期保值（汇率对冲）"则在加剧贬值趋势。 显示美元对主要货币的综合强弱的美元指数6月30日为96点左右。1～6月的降幅为10.7%。半年下跌超 过10%可以追溯到各国携手纠正美元升值的广场协议之后的局面和1991年美国经济低迷时期。如果仅限 于上半年，则是1971年尼克松冲击后美元处于贬值局面的1973年以来的首次。 在美国股市创出新高、美国国债被回购的情况下，美元却在贬值。其背景是通过金融衍生产品等降低汇 率风险的汇率对冲增加。 "认为特朗普关税将导致汇率波动率上升，因此从3月前后开始提高了对冲比率"，朝日生命保险的固定 收益投资部长河上和弘如此表示。 如果以美元资产进行投资，美元贬值时就会产生汇兑损失。通常会 ...