智通财经APP获悉，美国首次申请失业救济金人数意外降至四周以来最低点位，进一步表明在特朗普政 府主导的贸易政策带来越来越大经济增长不确定性之际，美国劳动力市场依然保持健康。这也意味着特 朗普面向全球的激进关税政策目前尚未对于美国经济造成重大负面影响，给了美联储政策制定者们继续 观望经济形势以及继续维系高利率的关键理由。 美国首次申请失业救济人数降至4周最低点——持续申领人数则略有上升 持续申领失业救济金人数——衡量领取失业救济整体人数的衡量指标，在前一周则增至 190 万人，仅仅 略高于经济学家们普遍预期。 初请失业金数据的最新水平显示，即便对关税政策以及特朗普政府缩减联邦政府规模所产生的连锁负面 效应感到忧虑，企业们仍相对满意当前的用工规模。 虽然美国政府已对部分关税做出让步，圣路易斯联储主席阿尔韦托·穆萨莱姆(Alberto Musalem)仍认为特 朗普政府主导的贸易政策可能拖累美国劳动力市场。 美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示，截至5月17日当周，美国初请失业金人数减少2,000 人，至22.7万人， 低于经济学家们普遍预期的23万人。该统计期涵盖了美国政府编制月度就业报告的调查周。 华尔街大行高盛集团的 ...

Group 1 - President Trump pressured Walmart to absorb tariff costs without raising prices [1] - Target Corporation lowered its full-year sales forecast after a weak quarterly performance, downplaying plans for price increases related to tariffs [1][3] - Target's comparable sales fell by 3.8% in the quarter ending May 3, exceeding analyst expectations [3] Group 2 - Home improvement retailers Lowe's and Home Depot are exploring strategies to manage tariff costs without comprehensive price increases [3] - Home Depot indicated that while there won't be overall price hikes, some individual product prices may adjust, and certain items might disappear from shelves [3] - Lowe's executives emphasized maintaining price competitiveness and minimizing consumer impact [3] Group 3 - Nike avoided mentioning tariffs but announced price increases on various footwear and apparel products, with specific increases of $5 for shoes priced between $100 and $150, and $10 for shoes over $150 [5] - Major U.S. retailers are facing dual challenges of high costs from tariffs and the need to avoid alienating consumers or the White House [5] Group 4 - A recent Reuters survey indicated that economists believe U.S. government policies have negatively impacted the economy, with over 55% stating it caused severe damage [6] - Current tariff rates are significantly higher than at the beginning of the year, contributing to high policy uncertainty and recession risks [6] - Economists expect U.S. inflation to remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target at least until 2027 [6]

更多精彩文章：A股市场共振性减弱 铂钯投资是押注东升西降 5月21日，美国财政部拍卖160亿美元的20年期国债。本次拍卖的最终得标利率为5.047%，这也是20年期美债拍卖收益率有记录以来第二次突破5%大关。 美债滚雪球+特朗普减税计划+特朗普关税政策不稳定+美债6月兑付高峰+美债评级被下调+大国博弈等因素，导致做多美债收益率的期权大规模攀升，美债 再遭市场集中抛售，并导致美国市场遭遇股债汇三杀，美国的金融风险再次抬升。 目前美国股债汇三个市场已经很难平衡了，如果美债市场继续承压，不仅股市风险会明显提高，且债务风险化问题将更加严重，将快速向经济传导，影响经 济增速与就业，负反馈将笼罩美国经济将。 美国私人债务公共化--美国公共债务国际化之路已经走进死胡同，走到了一个极端，事实证明这条路是走不通的，美国向中国等国家长期转嫁债务危机的计 划必然迎来反噬，只有悬崖勒马，找出自身问题所在才能缓解美国危机，但这非常艰难，因为美国的犹太资本有失控趋势，所以美债将迎来大考，若考试不 及格，美元将会跌落国际母货币地位。（本文系馨月说财经原创文章，转载请注明作者及来源于新浪微博头条文章） 美债承压如果倒逼美联储降息的话，美债与 ...

智通财经5月20日电，摩根大通CEO戴蒙表示，美国经济衰退的可能性为50%。 ...

Economic Outlook - The recent downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's reflects concerns over increasing government debt and interest expenditures, with the federal debt exceeding $36 trillion and a projected deficit of $1.8 trillion for 2024, which is 6.4% of GDP [1][2] - Moody's predicts that if the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is extended, the federal deficit could increase by approximately $4 trillion over the next decade, raising the debt-to-GDP ratio from 98% in 2024 to 134% by 2035 [1] Consumer Confidence - The University of Michigan reported a decline in the US consumer confidence index to 50.8% in May, marking the lowest level since June 2022 and a continuous drop for five months [2] - Consumer inflation expectations for the next year rose to 7.3%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from April [2] Economic Performance - The US economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2023, the worst quarterly performance since 2022, attributed largely to the impact of increased tariffs [2][3] - Personal consumption expenditure, which accounts for about 70% of the US economy, grew by 1.8%, showing a significant slowdown compared to previous quarters [3] Retail Sector Impact - Retail sales in April increased by only 0.1% month-over-month, significantly lower than the growth rate in March, indicating weakened consumer spending [3] - Major retailers like Walmart and Best Buy are planning to raise prices on imported goods to offset increased costs due to tariffs, despite warnings from President Trump against passing costs onto consumers [3] Tourism Industry - The number of international visitors to the US decreased by 11.6% year-over-year in March, negatively impacting the tourism sector, which contributes approximately 9% to the US economy [3] - The World Travel and Tourism Council forecasts a 7% decline in tourism revenue for the US by 2025 [3] Federal Reserve Policy - President Trump has urged the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy, but the Fed has opted to maintain current rates, marking the third consecutive meeting without a change [3] Trade Policy Concerns - Analysts express that the high tariff levels, despite recent adjustments, will continue to exert negative effects on the US economy, potentially leading to high inflation, high unemployment, and economic recession in the long term [4] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the US economy may enter a period characterized by more frequent and persistent supply shocks [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. 30-year Treasury futures fell by 21 points, while the 10-year Treasury futures decreased by 7 points [2] - WTI crude oil futures saw a decline of up to 1%, settling at $61.30 per barrel [2] - As of the latest update, NYMEX crude oil prices narrowed their decline to 0.11% [3] Group 2 - Spot gold prices increased by 1.2%, reaching $3,239.5 per ounce [4] - The U.S. federal government debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with $6.5 trillion in Treasury bonds maturing this year [8] - The U.S. federal budget deficit exceeded $1.3 trillion in the first half of the fiscal year 2025, marking the second-highest half-year deficit in history [8] Group 3 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing increased government debt and interest payments [7] - The downgrade reflects a significant rise in the ratio of U.S. government debt and interest payments compared to similarly rated countries [7] - Moody's projects that mandatory spending, including interest, will rise from approximately 73% of total spending in 2024 to 78% by 2035 [7]

Core Viewpoint - Walmart is set to raise prices on certain products in the U.S. due to the impact of government tariff policies, which have led to increased costs that the company cannot fully absorb [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first fiscal quarter ending April 30, Walmart reported a net profit of $4.49 billion, a decrease of over 12% year-on-year [1]. - The CEO Doug McMillon indicated that the narrow retail profit margins make it impossible for Walmart to absorb all the pressure from the new tariffs [1]. Group 2: Price Adjustments - CFO John Rainey stated that the cost increases from tariffs have exceeded the capacity of retailers, and consumers are likely to see price hikes starting late May, with more significant increases expected in June [3][5]. - Rainey emphasized that the initial tariff levels proposed in early April are already too high for retailers to manage profit margins effectively, prompting a review of product categories and their price elasticity [5]. Group 3: Industry Implications - Analysts suggest that once Walmart begins to raise prices, other retailers may follow suit, indicating a potential industry-wide trend [6][8]. - JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon warned of ongoing recession risks in the U.S., although the likelihood of a recession has been adjusted down from 60% to 50% by their economists [8][10].

高盛：美国违约率大幅上升的风险下降 金十数据5月16日讯，高盛信贷研究分析师在一份报告中表示，美国经济衰退的风险降低，金融状况正 在改善，商业乐观情绪正在重新浮现，这降低了"违约率急剧加速"的可能性。贸易紧张局势的缓和和借 贷成本的下降为美国企业创造了有利条件。 ...

博斯蒂克：预计今年降息一次，美国不会陷入衰退 金十数据5月16日讯，美联储博斯蒂克表示，他预计美国经济今年将放缓，但不会陷入衰退，并重申他 预计2025年将降息一次。博斯蒂克说，"由于不确定性和对前景的担忧给消费者带来压力，今年的经济 增长率可能达到0.5%或1%。波动的贸易政策也使企业更不愿意做出重要决定。我预计今年仅降息一 次，部分原因是，我认为不确定性不太可能很快自行解决。"虽然贸易形势有所降温，但博斯蒂克认为 谈判的最终结果仍不明朗。 ...

| 11/11/2 ■投前货 | | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年05月15日 | | 贵金属 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 贵金属延续回调。证期贸易和地缘谈判降低市场对于美国经济衰退的押注,情绪切换令金价回吐前期风险溢 价。国际金价处于调整过程中,关注3200美元/盎司处支撑有效性。今晚关注美国PPI、零售销售和周废初清 矢业金人数。 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势,且行情正在盘面发酵 ★★★ 三颗星代表更加明晰的多/空趋势,且当前仍具备相对恰当的投资机会 4月GPI数据让市场更加固惑 -- 整体通胀率同比仅增长2.3%,创下四年来的最低水平,主要得益于食品价格 的下跌。然而,剔除食品和能源的核心通胀率却依然高达2.8%,远超美联储2%的目标。这种"表面降温、内 部火热"的局 ...