马斯克：美国总统特朗普的关税将造成美国经济在下半年陷入衰退。 ...

作 者丨叶麦穗吴斌 编 辑丨包芳鸣刘雪莹 黄金盘中跳水！现货黄金盘中一度冲破3400美元/盎司，随后迅速跌破3380美元/盎司。 | W | | 伦敦金现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | 3371.633 | | 昨结 3371.890 开盘 | 3374.250 | | | -0.257 -0.01% | | 总量(kg) 0.00 现手 | | O | | 3403.440 最高价 | 持 仓 | 0 | | 0.000 | | 最低价 3360.925 | 增 位 | O | | 0.000 | | 공개4 五日 | HK 周Ｋ 月Ｋ | 申名 | | | | 叠加 | | | | | | | | な | | | | 3403.440 | | 0.94% 卖1 | 3372.064 | O | | | | 示 | 3371.633 | 0 | | | | | 23:11 3371.520 0 | | | | | | 23:11 3371.500 0 | | | | | 0.00% 23:11 3371. ...

今晚，美国就业市场意外"爆冷"，降息预期飙升。 据ADP Research公布的数据，美国5月ADP就业人数仅增加3.7万人，是自2023年3月以来的最低水平，大幅不及预期。这表明 在经济不确定性日益增加的情况下，劳动力市场可能正在走弱。 数据发布后，投资者对美联储降息的预期大幅上升。特朗普在社交平台上发帖称，美联储主席鲍威尔现在必须降息。美国联 邦住房金融局局长也呼吁鲍威尔降息。有分析称，如果本周五公布的美国5月非农就业数据不及预期，美联储可能面临更大的 政策调整压力。 与此同时，ISM公布的数据显示，美国5月ISM服务业PMI指数报49.9，大幅不及预期的52，是近一年来首次陷入萎缩。受此影 响，美元指数直线跳水，一度跌超0.5%。美股市场整体维持窄幅震荡格局，三大指数小幅上涨。 值得一提的是，中国资产全线爆发，截至北京时间22:50，纳斯达克中国金龙指数大涨超2%，三倍做多富时中国ETF大涨超 4%，两倍做多中国互联网股票ETF涨超3%，富时中国A50指数期货亦小幅拉升，涨0.23%。热门中概股集体走强，蔚来大涨 超9%，名创优品、霸王茶姬涨超4%，阿里巴巴、小鹏汽车、富途控股涨超3%，百济神州、好未来 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant decline in the ADP employment figures for May, dropping from a previous value of 60,000 to 37,000, indicating signs of contraction in the U.S. job market [2] - If the upcoming non-farm payroll data reflects similar negative trends as the ADP figures, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve initiating a rate cut in the upcoming June meeting will increase substantially [2] - The Federal Reserve's previous cautious stance on monetary policy was largely based on the strength of the U.S. job market; any signs of weakening could prompt a reassessment of this stance [2] Group 2 - The current federal funds rate remains high, which adversely affects U.S. corporate financing and debt interest burdens, potentially dragging the economy into a recession [2] - The U.S. economy has already shown a negative growth of 0.2% in the first quarter, with the outlook for the second quarter appearing bleak [2] - Economic policies from President Trump, particularly tariff policies, have cast significant uncertainty over the U.S. economic outlook, complicating future projections [2]

Core Viewpoint - California's Governor Newsom has filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration over tariff policies, claiming they are illegal and have severely disrupted the U.S. economy [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Impact on California - California, as the largest importing state and manufacturing hub in the U.S., plays a crucial role in international trade, with a total import and export volume of $675 billion in 2024, and 45% of exports going to Mexico, Canada, and China [3]. - Trump's aggressive tariff policies have significantly impacted California's economy, causing supply chain disruptions, a 12%-15% increase in raw material costs, and hindering 60,000 small businesses from exporting [3]. - The lawsuit against the Trump administration is a direct response to the economic damage caused, including severe losses for farmers and technology companies [3]. Group 2: Financial Sector Reactions - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has warned that Trump's tariff policies are likely to push inflation up, creating a dilemma for the Fed between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth [5]. - Economic experts and financial institutions are pessimistic about the outlook, with Goldman Sachs predicting a 45% chance of recession if Trump continues trade wars, while JPMorgan estimates the likelihood at 60% [5]. - Standard & Poor's has also warned that the U.S. sovereign credit rating could be downgraded from its current AA+ level due to deteriorating fiscal conditions linked to tariff policies [5]. Group 3: Bond Market and Public Sentiment - The trade war initiated by Trump has caused significant turmoil in the bond market, leading to a record increase in U.S. Treasury yields, with the ten-year yield reaching 4.5% [6]. - The rising yields on U.S. debt, which has reached $36 trillion, could increase annual interest payments by nearly $100 billion, further straining the U.S. fiscal situation [6]. - Public sentiment is largely against Trump's tariff policies, with 72% of respondents in a Quinnipiac University poll believing that tariffs will harm the economy in the short term, and 53% believing the same for the long term [8].

尽管关税暂停协议为市场注入短期信心，但上述风险因素相互交织，可能对经济韧性形成持续性考验。 当前美债收益率曲线陡峭化走势与经济衰退预期降温形成反差，折射出市场对财政可持续性与货币政策 转向的深层担忧。 智通财经APP获悉，尽管债券市场持续对美国长期财政健康状况敲响警钟，但自中美关税暂停协议生效 以来，市场对美国经济年内陷入衰退的预期已显著降温。据预测平台Polymarket数据显示，本月初市场 预估的衰退概率一度高达67%，而当前该数值已回落至40%以下。不过，阿波罗全球管理公司首席经济 学家托尔斯滕·斯洛克指出，美国经济前景仍暗藏多重风险。其最新报告列出的十大下行风险包括： 4、企业经营环境恶化：企业制定经营计划时面临极高不确定性，市场信心持续低迷; 5、消费动能趋弱：沃尔玛等零售巨头数据显示，物价上涨正抑制居民消费支出; 6、信心指标疲软：密歇根大学消费者信心指数长期处于历史低位; 7、旅游业受挫：国际商务与休闲旅行需求增长乏力; 8、学生贷款重启：超4000万美国人需自10月起恢复偿还学生贷款; 9、地产市场遇冷：抵押贷款利率攀升导致住房需求持续收缩; 10、行政效率波动：政府人事调整可能对政策执行稳定 ...

Group 1 - The tax reform bill passed in the House raises concerns about the U.S. budget deficit and the attractiveness of the dollar, leading to uncertainty among stock and bond investors [1] - Hedgeye Risk Management's CEO Keith McCullough believes that the bond and currency markets are sending clear signals, stating that he does not hold any U.S. Treasury bonds and has reduced his gold holdings to a minimum due to rising U.S. economic growth and inflation [1] - McCullough asserts that the U.S. will not enter a recession, and he anticipates that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates in the next three to four quarters, which gives him confidence in not holding U.S. government debt [1] Group 2 - McCullough acknowledges the risks associated with U.S. debt and fiscal deficits but believes that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will not fall below 4.43%, contrary to his previous belief that it could easily drop below 4% [1] - The company holds some fixed-income assets, specifically high-yield corporate bonds, and McCullough indicates that the lack of volatility in high-yield bond spreads suggests no imminent widespread recession or decline in corporate profits [1] - McCullough expects the economic outlook to improve from Q4 to Q1 of the following year, which should provide more support for the dollar, while he still recommends going long on the euro, Australian dollar, and European equities, particularly in Germany, Spain, and Belgium [1] Group 3 - McCullough's model suggests that the worst period for the dollar has passed, as he believes the U.S. economy will not enter a recession and inflation will begin to rise [2] - He indicates that all rate cut expectations for the year have been largely eliminated, and any potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve will not be as significant as investors might expect [2]

智通财经APP获悉，美国首次申请失业救济金人数意外降至四周以来最低点位，进一步表明在特朗普政 府主导的贸易政策带来越来越大经济增长不确定性之际，美国劳动力市场依然保持健康。这也意味着特 朗普面向全球的激进关税政策目前尚未对于美国经济造成重大负面影响，给了美联储政策制定者们继续 观望经济形势以及继续维系高利率的关键理由。 美国首次申请失业救济人数降至4周最低点——持续申领人数则略有上升 持续申领失业救济金人数——衡量领取失业救济整体人数的衡量指标，在前一周则增至 190 万人，仅仅 略高于经济学家们普遍预期。 初请失业金数据的最新水平显示，即便对关税政策以及特朗普政府缩减联邦政府规模所产生的连锁负面 效应感到忧虑，企业们仍相对满意当前的用工规模。 虽然美国政府已对部分关税做出让步，圣路易斯联储主席阿尔韦托·穆萨莱姆(Alberto Musalem)仍认为特 朗普政府主导的贸易政策可能拖累美国劳动力市场。 美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示，截至5月17日当周，美国初请失业金人数减少2,000 人，至22.7万人， 低于经济学家们普遍预期的23万人。该统计期涵盖了美国政府编制月度就业报告的调查周。 华尔街大行高盛集团的 ...

Group 1 - President Trump pressured Walmart to absorb tariff costs without raising prices [1] - Target Corporation lowered its full-year sales forecast after a weak quarterly performance, downplaying plans for price increases related to tariffs [1][3] - Target's comparable sales fell by 3.8% in the quarter ending May 3, exceeding analyst expectations [3] Group 2 - Home improvement retailers Lowe's and Home Depot are exploring strategies to manage tariff costs without comprehensive price increases [3] - Home Depot indicated that while there won't be overall price hikes, some individual product prices may adjust, and certain items might disappear from shelves [3] - Lowe's executives emphasized maintaining price competitiveness and minimizing consumer impact [3] Group 3 - Nike avoided mentioning tariffs but announced price increases on various footwear and apparel products, with specific increases of $5 for shoes priced between $100 and $150, and $10 for shoes over $150 [5] - Major U.S. retailers are facing dual challenges of high costs from tariffs and the need to avoid alienating consumers or the White House [5] Group 4 - A recent Reuters survey indicated that economists believe U.S. government policies have negatively impacted the economy, with over 55% stating it caused severe damage [6] - Current tariff rates are significantly higher than at the beginning of the year, contributing to high policy uncertainty and recession risks [6] - Economists expect U.S. inflation to remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target at least until 2027 [6]

更多精彩文章：A股市场共振性减弱 铂钯投资是押注东升西降 5月21日，美国财政部拍卖160亿美元的20年期国债。本次拍卖的最终得标利率为5.047%，这也是20年期美债拍卖收益率有记录以来第二次突破5%大关。 美债滚雪球+特朗普减税计划+特朗普关税政策不稳定+美债6月兑付高峰+美债评级被下调+大国博弈等因素，导致做多美债收益率的期权大规模攀升，美债 再遭市场集中抛售，并导致美国市场遭遇股债汇三杀，美国的金融风险再次抬升。 目前美国股债汇三个市场已经很难平衡了，如果美债市场继续承压，不仅股市风险会明显提高，且债务风险化问题将更加严重，将快速向经济传导，影响经 济增速与就业，负反馈将笼罩美国经济将。 美国私人债务公共化--美国公共债务国际化之路已经走进死胡同，走到了一个极端，事实证明这条路是走不通的，美国向中国等国家长期转嫁债务危机的计 划必然迎来反噬，只有悬崖勒马，找出自身问题所在才能缓解美国危机，但这非常艰难，因为美国的犹太资本有失控趋势，所以美债将迎来大考，若考试不 及格，美元将会跌落国际母货币地位。（本文系馨月说财经原创文章，转载请注明作者及来源于新浪微博头条文章） 美债承压如果倒逼美联储降息的话，美债与 ...