文章来源：金十数据 美国银行（Bank of America Corp）表示，在贵金属价格从历史高位暴跌后，黄金和白银市场的波动性 将持续高企。 根据一项波动率衡量指标，金价目前的波动程度已超过2008年金融危机高峰以来的任何时期。与此同 时，白银正经历着自1980年以来最剧烈的市场动荡。 上个月，在投机者涌入、地缘政治担忧升温以及对美联储独立性的焦虑情绪支撑下，贵金属价格一路飙 升，延续了惊人的涨势。但这一切在上周五突然停止，黄金遭遇了十余年来的最大跌幅，白银则经历了 有记录以来最糟糕的一天。 "我们将维持比历史水平更高的波动性环境，但不会像过去几天那样剧烈，除非我们再次催生一个投机 泡沫，"美国银行欧洲、中东和非洲商品交易主管尼克拉斯·韦斯特马克（Niklas Westermark）表示，"过 去两个交易日的洗盘，我认为已经在很大程度上清理了市场。" 随着逢低买盘涌入，黄金及其更廉价的"兄弟"白银在周二反弹。韦斯特马克指出，黄金有着更强、更长 期的投资逻辑。他认为，高企的价格和动荡可能会影响头寸规模，但不会改变投资者的整体兴趣。 金银拥趸"厌恶新波动"但仍坚守信念 黄金投资者通常是一个坚韧的群体，对市场波 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, as market sentiment stabilizes, gold has stopped falling and rebounded. The bottom of the stage is expected to be gradually established, but bullish confidence still needs to be restored. Investors can choose to allocate at low prices [1] - Affected by factors such as regulatory restrictions and macro - news sentiment, silver prices may fluctuate widely in the range of $75 - 95. Before the holiday, the exchange raised margin requirements again. Institutions may hold empty positions and wait and see, resulting in a decline in liquidity and volatility. Single - side operations need to be cautious [1] - Palladium rebounds following gold in the short - term, and its price will enter a consolidation phase. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily until the direction is clear [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - The AU2604 contract rose 85.18 yuan/gram on February 3, 2026, with a daily increase of 8.45% compared to February 2 [1] - The AG2604 contract fell 3386 yuan/kg on February 3, 2026, with a daily decrease of 13.64% compared to February 2 [1] - The PT2606 contract rose 20.80 yuan, with a daily increase of 3.77% [1] - The PD2606 contract rose 36.85 yuan/gram on February 3, 2026, with a daily increase of 8.91% compared to February 2 [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - The COMEX gold main contract rose $289.60 on February 3, 2026, with a daily increase of 6.19% compared to February 2 [1] - The COMEX silver main contract rose $5.65, with a daily increase of 7.13% [1] - The NYMEX platinum main contract rose $93.80 on February 3, 2026, with a daily increase of 4.43% compared to February 2 [1] - The NYMEX palladium main contract rose $21.00, with a daily increase of 1.22% [1] Spot Prices - London gold rose $286.88 on February 3, 2026, with a daily increase of 6.16% compared to the previous day [1] - London silver rose $6.22, with a daily increase of 7.85% [1] - Spot platinum rose $102.00 on February 3, 2026, with a daily increase of 4.76% compared to the previous day [1] - Spot palladium rose $2.84, with a daily increase of 0.16% [1] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D rose 69.22 yuan/gram on February 3, 2026, with a daily increase of 6.74% compared to the previous day [1] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D fell 1820 yuan/kg on February 3, 2026, with a daily decrease of 7.77% compared to the previous day [1] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 rose 50 yuan/gram on February 3, 2026, with a daily increase of 9.76% compared to the previous day [1] Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract was 2.56 yuan, down 15.96 yuan from the previous day, and the historical one - year quantile was 46.10% [1] - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract was 154 yuan, up 1566 yuan from the previous day, and the historical one - year quantile was 60.60% [1] - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was - 24.33 yuan, down 2.72 yuan from the previous day, and the historical one - year quantile was 33.50% [1] - The basis of London silver - COMEX silver was 0.50 yuan, up 0.56 yuan from the previous day, and the historical one - year quantile was 95.90% [1] Price Ratios - The COMEX gold/silver ratio was 58.54, down 0.52 from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 0.88% [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver ratio was 51.00, up 10.38 from the previous day, with a daily increase of 25.57% [1] - The NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio was 1.27, up 0.04 from the previous day, with a daily increase of 3.17% [1] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio was 1.27, down 0.06 from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 4.72% [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.28%, down 0.01 percentage points from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 0.2% [1] - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.57%, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.92%, down 0.02 percentage points from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 1.0% [1] - The US dollar index was 97.39, down 0.23 from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 0.23% [1] - The on - shore RMB exchange rate was 6.9350, down 0.0064 from the previous day, with a daily decrease of 0.09% [1] Inventory and Positions - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 103,032 kg on February 3, 2026, up 3 kg from the previous day, with an increase of 0.00% [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory was 449,653 kg on February 3, 2026, down 12,970 kg from the previous day, with a decrease of 2.80% [1] - The COMEX gold inventory was 35,755,533 ounces on February 3, 2026, up 130,179 ounces from the previous day, with an increase of 0.37% [1] - The COMEX silver inventory was 403,857,528 ounces on February 3, 2026, down 1,840,067 ounces from the previous day, with a decrease of 0.45% [1] - The COMEX platinum registered warehouse receipts were 18,962,352 ounces on February 3, 2026, down 32,689 ounces from the previous day, with a decrease of 0.17% [1] - The COMEX palladium registered warehouse receipts were 103,070,933 ounces on February 3, 2026, down 946,605 ounces from the previous day, with a decrease of 0.91% [1] - The SPDR gold ETF position was 1,083 tons on February 3, 2026, down 3.72 tons from the previous day, with a decrease of 0.34% [1] - The SLV silver ETF position was 16,438 tons on February 3, 2026, down 108.90 tons from the previous day, with a decrease of 0.66% [1]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The long - term upward driving force of precious metals remains unchanged. Investors are advised to go long after the downward momentum of precious metals weakens. However, due to the large influx of investment funds and high price volatility recently, investors are advised to reduce positions to avoid short - term risks. Also, be vigilant against the medium - term risk of the Fed tightening monetary policy to end the precious metals bull market [4][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - After three consecutive days of sharp adjustments in the precious metals market due to the nomination of a hawkish Fed chair candidate by Trump and the easing of the US - Iran conflict risk, the precious metals sector rebounded. On February 3, Asian session, London gold returned above $4,900 per ounce. This was because the internal adjustment risk was fully released, attracting some bottom - fishing funds, and the Trump administration announced the launch of the Vault Project, boosting the strategic value expectation of key minerals [4] 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - Trump's confirmation of the next Fed chair candidate eliminated the market's hedging demand for this uncertainty. The hawkish stance of the candidate also alleviated concerns about the loss of US fiscal discipline, so the precious metals correction was reasonable. The previous sharp rise in precious metals also needed a large retracement. However, the hawkish stance has no fundamental impact on the long - term bull market of gold and may mainly compress the duration of the medium - term bull market. It is bullish for silver, platinum, and palladium compared to gold. The report maintains the view that gold will rise in the medium and long term, and silver, platinum, and palladium will be stronger than gold in the medium term [6] 3.1.3 Domestic Precious Metals Market Quotes | Contract | Previous Closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change Rate (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold Index | 1,008.88 | 1,099.95 | 1,034.88 | 1,095.29 | 8.56 | 315,593 | 3,738 | | SHFE Silver Index | 24,549 | 21,659 | 20,313 | 20,979 | - 14.54 | 583,536 | - 65,359 | | GZFE Platinum Index | 550.99 | 575.14 | 539.71 | 570.52 | 3.54 | 31,822 | - 1,995 | | GZFE Palladium Index | 412.91 | 449.05 | 413.73 | 448.62 | 8.65 | 11,715 | - 526 | [5] 3.2 Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indexes, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indexes to Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [8][10][16] 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump reached a trade agreement with India, reducing the US tariff on Indian goods from 50% to 18%. India will lower trade barriers, stop buying Russian oil, and buy from the US and Venezuela. The US will revoke the 25% punitive tariff, and India promises to buy over $500 billion of US products [17] - Trump is about to launch a strategic key mineral reserve plan called the Vault Project with an initial capital of $12 billion, integrating $2 billion of private funds and a $10 - billion loan from the US Export - Import Bank [17] - The US manufacturing activity expanded for the first time in a year in January. The ISM's January PMI rebounded to 52.6, breaking through the 50 mark for the first time in 12 months and reaching the highest level since August 2022. The new orders sub - index jumped from 47.4 in December to 57.1 in January, the highest since February 2022 [17] - Iran and the US will restart nuclear negotiations in Turkey on Friday. US envoy Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi will meet in Istanbul, and representatives from Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other countries will also participate [18]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 许多追高的人被打得鼻青脸肿。一位在上周银价接近历史高点时投资AGQ的散户表示，到上周末时其 账面损失已超过2.5万美元。他写道："我今天在整个投资组合上亏掉了几年的税后工资。" 尽管部分人认为美国总统特朗普提名沃什担任美联储主席是引发贵金属暴跌的导火索——黄金从高点到 低点下跌了21%，随后在周二反弹6%。但交易员将此次下跌的速度和残酷程度归因于最近几周投机狂 潮的突然逆转。 交易员表示，来自散户投资者（尤其是亚洲散户）的投机性投资是近几个月价格走高的关键驱动力。根 据Vanda Research的数据，个人交易员在1月份向白银交易所交易基金（ETF）注入了创纪录的10亿美 元，这让他们处于此次崩盘的风口浪尖。 StoneX分析师Rhona O'Connell表示："白银从来都是个'死亡陷阱'。过去几周我们看到了极其夸张的走 势，这真的是一场迟早要发生的事故。" 据英国《金融时报》计算，追踪黄金和白银的ETF自上周市场见顶以来，市值已蒸发约1500亿美元。 在实物方面，1月份还出现了争抢白银实物供应的热潮，随着去年的涨势进入超速状态，国家造币厂难 以满 ...

前几日，国际金价连续大幅下跌，带动国内贵金属市场，甚至首饰金等也跟着剧烈震荡，多家银行、交 易所接连发布贵金属投资风险提示。刚入手金饰的消费者，能否申请退货减少损失？未来市场走势如 何？ 对此，消费者权益与产品质量安全法律专业委员会主任芦云指出，违约金主要是赔偿金，不得高于商品 价格的30%。如果"退单一律扣500元"，对于只购买了一两克金饰的消费者来说，违约金明显过高。 另外，业内律师陈明提醒消费者：仅仅根据金价跌了就去退货，大概率是有难度的。与普通商品相比， 金币、金条的价格随金价实时波动。"如果允许七天无理由退货，一旦跌了，所有人都来退货。同样 的，一旦涨价，商家是不是也可以故意不发货？因此，部分法院基于这个原因，不支持消费者主张七天 无理由退货。" 哈佛大学梅森高级研究员郑科认为，此次国际贵金属市场的巨幅震荡，是宏观政策预期变动、技术性回 调、杠杆资金平仓等多重因素叠加的结果，这也再次印证了贵金属市场"高收益与高风险并存"的特点。 无论是专业投资者还是普通消费者，面对剧烈波动的市场，都需摒弃"追涨杀跌"的非理性心态。 记者走访多家金店并咨询法律人士后了解到，金饰能否退货，主要取决于购买渠道、购买类型及 ...

内盘方面，沪金、沪银期货主力合约夜盘大涨。截至收盘，沪金期货主力合约上涨3.49%、沪银期货主力合约上涨 5.93%。 早上好，金银行情又"反转"了。 3日晚，纽约期金和纽约期银主力合约暴涨，伦敦金现货和伦敦银现货价格也大幅上涨。 截至发稿，纽约期金、纽约期银主力合约分别上涨6.83%、10.27%，伦敦金现货、伦敦银现货价格分别上涨3.57%、 2.90%。 消息面上，据央视新闻报道，当地时间2月3日，一名美国官员表示，美军当天在阿拉伯海击落了一架接近"亚伯拉 罕·林肯"号航空母舰的伊朗无人机。 据悉，一架伊朗无人机当时正飞向航母，随后被美军F-35战斗机击落。 伊朗方面一名消息人士表示，伊方一架无人机当天在公海执行常规合法侦察任务过程中失联，但已成功传回其拍摄 的图片。 就美军称当天在阿拉伯海击落一架伊朗无人机一事，这名消息人士回应说，伊方一架"目击者-129"型无人机当天在 公海执行侦察、监视、拍照等常规合法任务，并将相关图片传回指挥中心，但随后失联。他说，失联原因正在调查 中，一旦确认，将予公布。 美国总统特朗普当地时间2月3日在白宫签署政府拨款法案时表示，与伊朗本周的谈判仍在继续，伊朗方面有意愿采 ...

早上好，金银行情又"反转"了。 内盘方面，沪金、沪银期货主力合约夜盘大涨。截至收盘，沪金期货主力合约上涨3.49%、沪银期货主力合约上涨 5.93%。 3日晚，纽约期金和纽约期银主力合约暴涨，伦敦金现货和伦敦银现货价格也大幅上涨。 截至发稿，纽约期金、纽约期银主力合约分别上涨6.83%、10.27%，伦敦金现货、伦敦银现货价格分别上涨3.57%、 2.90%。 消息面上，据央视新闻报道，当地时间2月3日，一名美国官员表示，美军当天在阿拉伯海击落了一架接近"亚伯拉 罕·林肯"号航空母舰的伊朗无人机。 据悉，一架伊朗无人机当时正飞向航母，随后被美军F-35战斗机击落。 伊朗方面一名消息人士表示，伊方一架无人机当天在公海执行常规合法侦察任务过程中失联，但已成功传回其拍摄 的图片。 就美军称当天在阿拉伯海击落一架伊朗无人机一事，这名消息人士回应说，伊方一架"目击者-129"型无人机当天在 公海执行侦察、监视、拍照等常规合法任务，并将相关图片传回指挥中心，但随后失联。他说，失联原因正在调查 中，一旦确认，将予公布。 美国总统特朗普当地时间2月3日在白宫签署政府拨款法案时表示，与伊朗本周的谈判仍在继续，伊朗方面有意愿采 ...

黄金 期货上涨6.1%，至略高于每盎司4,900美元，金价有望重回每盎司5,000美元大关。这是近月黄金合 约自2009年3月以来的最大百分比涨幅。这也终结了连续两个交易日的跌势；上周金价在一度升破每盎 司5,400美元后，回落至每盎司5,000美元关口下方。ADM Investor Services在一份报告中称，一些上周晚 些时候利用黄金获利了结的投资者认为，现在是重新买入这种贵金属的机会。 白银也大幅上涨，近月 合约上涨8.2%，至每盎司83.042美元。 ...

1 月底，贵金属市场经历了一次让无数人彻夜难眠的暴跌。 不只是黄金，白银的跌幅更是触目惊心。 黄金盘中最大跌幅超过 12%，最终单日收跌 9% 以上； 白银更惨，盘中一度暴跌 36%，最终收跌 26%，一天蒸发掉了 四分之一市值。 对普通旁观者来说，这只是屏幕上一串跳动的数字； 但对大量加了杠杆的投资者而言，这是一场直接清零的灾难。 在贵金属交易中，40 倍、50 倍杠杆并不罕见。 意味着什么？ 只要价格回撤 2%–3%，本金就会被系统强制平仓，一夜归零。 这不是"浮亏"，而是直接出局。 一、历史从不缺席，只是换了主角 凤凰网财经在报道中提到一个被反复验证的规律： 黄金和白银的每一次疯狂上涨，结局几乎都异常惨烈。 第一次：1979—1980 年 狂欢只持续了很短时间。 两个月后： 随后，是长达 20 年的横盘与阴跌。 第二次：2010—2011 年 结果呢？ 黄金：从 200 美元涨到 850 美元，约 4 倍 白银：从 6 美元涨到 50 美元，近 10 倍 黄金 腰斩 白银 暴跌 2/3 黄金：1000 → 1921 美元 白银：再次冲到 50 美元 黄金回撤 45% 白银跌去 70% 历史一次又一次告诉 ...

经过前两个交易日的大跌之后，2月3日，黄金、白银大幅反弹。 截至北京时间20:02，伦敦金现涨5.77%，报4928.3美元/盎司；COMEX黄金期货涨6.11%，报4937美元/盎司。伦敦银现涨9.79%，报86.881美元/盎司； COMEX白银期货涨11.51%，报85.87美元/盎司。 图片来源：Wind 交易所密集调整 上金所2月3日公告称，调整黄金、白银期货相关保证金水平和涨跌停板比例。 白银期货方面，自2月3日（星期二）收盘清算时起，Ag（T+D）合约的保证金水平从26%调整为23%，下一交易日起涨跌幅度限制从25%调整为22%。 黄金期货方面，自2月4日（星期三）收盘清算时起，Au（T+D）、mAu（T+D）、Au（T+N1）、Au（T+N2）、NYAuTN06、NYAuTN12等合约的保证 金比例从16%调整为17%，下一交易日起涨跌幅度限制从15%调整为16%；CAu99.99合约保证金每手120000元调整至每手150000元。 上期所今日公告称，自2月4日（星期三）收盘结算时起，白银期货涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例调整如下： 白银期货已上市合约的涨跌停板幅度调整 为19%，套保持仓交易 ...