每经AI快讯，12月26日，现货钯金涨超9%，报每盎司1,848.95美元。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：刘畅 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

技术面内，经过周一的下跌，日线以一根顶部大阴收盘，破位了单边均线支撑，但是没有破位日线布林 中轨的支撑，所以强势还在，只不过从前期的极强变为强势，并且可能是震荡，日线周二如果收阳，周 三，周四可能会在布林中轨之上继续连阳上涨，那么，元旦前后期还会延续多头的放量，H4周期就要 关注今天的变化了，由于周一下跌的空间较大，目前下轨是开口的状态，但如果今天站稳4400后，布林 收口，可能直接转为强势，再看延续上涨空间，上方关注4500，所以今天黄金关注4400得失，以及周期 性变化。那么今日操作上建议可以尝试性做多看涨了，早盘最低在4325，靠近4330附近就可以做多看 涨，目标先看4400，进一步看上涨空间的话就看4500． 白银技术分析： 白银昨日开盘后行情先拉升，给出83.98一线历史新高后获利了结强势回落，最低给到70.48附近后反弹 修复整理，目前白银反弹回到73上方，那么日内操作上建议可以在73支撑上继续看涨，这个周期预计先 看到80附近，再看前高是否破位，调整下来就是做多的机会。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 市场解读： 12月30日，在2025年即将落幕之际，贵金属市场迎来剧烈震荡。现货黄金 ...

【黄金期货最新行情】 | 12月30日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 1007.18 | -0.91% | 345222 | 166024 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【机构观点】 铜冠金源期货：市场情绪发生变化 贵金属短期可能延续回调 周一内外盘贵金属价格均从历史高位大幅下挫。国内交易时段，铂钯期货均跌停，而白银期货盘中一度 大幅拉升尾盘跳水。夜盘期间，外盘金银铂钯价格均大幅下挫。国内外交易监管政策持续加码，特别是 上周五CME大幅上调金属品种的保证金之后导致资金流出，以及市场过热后出现多头获利了结下而出 现快速调整。除了保证金上调降低杠杆，贵金属还面临技术面超买、税收驱动的年底抛售等短期风险。 白银周一上演过山车行情，海外社交平台传闻称某系统重要性银行因白银期货空头爆仓，未能支付追加 保证金而被强制平仓导致亏损超200亿美元。此外，彭博商品指数1月再平衡将迫使被动基金抛售相当于 白银期货市场9%未平仓合约的头寸。有金融作家John Rubino预言，科技巨头为应对供应 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market has experienced significant adjustments, particularly in platinum and palladium, which saw a sharp decline, reflecting short-term pressure on the precious metals market [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 30, 2025, the main contracts for platinum and palladium on the Guangxi Futures Exchange hit the daily limit down, with declines of 13% each, marking them as the largest losers in the domestic futures market [1][2]. - Internationally, platinum prices fell by 13.71% and palladium by 15.76% overnight [1]. - Year-to-date, NYMEX platinum futures have increased by 140%, with a volatility of 187.91%, while palladium has risen by 82.85% with a volatility of 138.37% [3][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent price surge in platinum and palladium is attributed to a combination of supply constraints, awakened investment demand, and long-term growth expectations, particularly in the Chinese market [6]. - Retail investment demand for platinum has reached historical highs, driven by its perceived value compared to gold and its role in hedging against inflation [6]. - The recent sharp declines in prices are linked to regulatory measures that have increased trading costs and reduced speculative trading activity, leading to a liquidity crunch [9][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The global platinum market is expected to face a shortage of 26.4 tons in 2025, despite a 4% year-on-year decline in total demand [11][12]. - There are differing opinions on the outlook for platinum and palladium in 2026, with some analysts predicting strong price increases due to robust automotive demand, while others foresee potential oversupply due to changing market dynamics [13][14]. - Factors such as ongoing central bank gold purchases, persistent inflation, and low real interest rates may support precious metal prices, although industrial demand weakness poses significant downward pressure [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The mid - term bullish logic for precious metals remains intact, but recent market volatility has increased, and there is a need to be cautious about correction risks. This week, opportunities for gold - silver ratio repair can be monitored. In the short term, the oscillatory correction trend may continue, but strong dip - buying demand provides some bottom support. The upper resistance for London gold is at $4500 per ounce, and the lower support is at $4300 per ounce. For London silver, the upper resistance is at $80 per ounce, and the lower support is at $70 per ounce. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 984.840 yuan/gram, down 22.3 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 18107 yuan/kg, down 94.00 yuan. - **Positions**: The position of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 144,462.00 lots, down 21,562.00 lots; the position of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 4,164.00 lots, down 1,506.00 lots. - **Volumes**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 391,541.00 lots, up 46,319.00 lots; the trading volume of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 2,059,507.00 lots, up 616,702.00 lots. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold was 97,704 kg, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Silver was 755,754 kg, down 40,985 kg. [1] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 981.91 yuan/gram, down 22.09 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 17,668.00 yuan, down 1,432.00 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 2.93 yuan/gram, up 0.25 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 439.00 yuan/gram, down 1,338.00 yuan. [1] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: The SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1,071.99 tons, up 0.86 tons; the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 16,305.96 tons, down 84.60 tons. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC was 233,978.00 contracts, up 10,092.00 contracts; the non - commercial net position of silver in CFTC was 36,352.00 contracts, down 8,357.00 contracts. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The total quarterly supply of gold was 1,313.07 tons, up 86.24 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 32,056.00 tons, up 482.00 tons. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1,257.90 tons, up 174.15 tons; the total annual demand for silver was 35,716.00 tons, down 491.00 tons. [1] 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index was 98.01, down 0.03; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.90, down 0.01. The VIX volatility index was 14.20, up 0.60; the CBOE gold volatility index was 0.04, up 0.04. The ratio of S&P 500 to gold price was 1.59; the gold - silver ratio was 58.11, down 5.69. [1] 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelensky. Both sides said the talks were fruitful but no major announcements were made. Trump said they discussed many topics and were close to an agreement, while Zelensky emphasized that the territorial issue was difficult and should be decided by the Ukrainian people. - The minutes of the Bank of Japan's December policy meeting showed that many members thought Japan's real interest rate was still very low, hinting at continued interest rate hikes in the future. One member suggested adjusting policies at intervals of "several months". - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 16.1%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 83.9%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 45.4%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 47.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 6.9%. [1] 3.6 Key Points of Attention - On December 30, 2025, at 22:00, the year - on - year US FHFA house price index; on January 1, 2026, at 21:45, the US Markit manufacturing PMI. [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [9] Core View - The market is currently volatile. The significant correction in silver prices may suppress gold prices, but the long-term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate in the near term, with the Au2602 contract oscillating between 950 yuan/gram and 1020 yuan/gram. Silver prices are also expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with the Ag2602 contract oscillating between 17,000 yuan/kilogram and 18,200 yuan/kilogram [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Trump will announce the Fed Chair nominee at an appropriate time and has criticized Fed Chair Powell and the Fed's building renovation. He is considering suing Powell for incompetence. Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelensky, and both sides said the talks "made great progress" but did not make any major announcements. Zelensky emphasized that the territorial issue remains difficult and must ultimately be decided by the Ukrainian people [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On December 29, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 1015.38 yuan/gram and closed at 1007.18 yuan/gram, down 0.90% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. During the night session, it opened at 1004.72 yuan/gram and closed at 975.80 yuan/gram, down 3.12% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 18,215.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 18,201.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.58% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 2,328,363 lots, and the open interest was 216,399 lots. During the night session, it opened at 18,000 yuan/kilogram and closed at 17,237 yuan/kilogram, down 5.32% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On December 29, 2025, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note closed at 4.11%, down 1.8 basis points from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.66%, up 0.5 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volume Changes - On December 29, 2025, on the Au2602 contract, the long positions decreased by 9,083 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 2,516 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 502,157 lots, up 4.22% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2602 contract, the long positions decreased by 31,114 lots, and the short positions decreased by 30,969 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contracts on the previous trading day was 4,930,646 lots, down 14.05% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF holdings were 1,071.13 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 16,391 tons, down 56 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On December 29, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -10.75 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -1,735.58 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was approximately 55.34, down 4.27% from the previous trading day. The price ratio of gold and silver in the overseas market was 64.27, up 0.96% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Analysis - On December 29, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 57,238 kilograms, up 78.16% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 1,602,424 kilograms, up 106.00% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 2,280 kilograms [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2) Core Views - Gold prices experienced a sharp decline in the short - term due to rapid capital outflows, and the market sentiment needs time to recover. It is recommended to wait and see. The market may focus on US economic data and Fed policies. Long - term investors can wait for the price to pull back to a reasonable level and the volatility to be relatively low before making allocations [1]. - Silver prices are expected to rise in the long term, and it is recommended to close positions or lock positions before the New Year's Day holiday and wait for the long - term allocation window [1]. - Platinum and palladium are fundamentally strong in terms of macro and supply - demand, and their prices are still undervalued compared to gold. They are expected to continue to rise in the medium - to - long - term. In the short - term, the domestic market has relatively high risks, and it is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize after the Spring Festival before making allocations [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2602 contract closed at 1007.18 yuan/gram on December 29, down 9.12 yuan (-0.90%) from December 26 [1]. - AG2602 contract closed at 18205 yuan/kilogram on December 29, down 114 yuan (-0.62%) from December 26 [1]. - PT2606 contract closed at 634.35 yuan/gram on December 29, down 70.95 yuan (-10.06%) from December 26; PD2606 contract closed at 494.10 yuan/gram, down 21.55 yuan (-4.18%) [1]. Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力合约 closed at 4350.20 on December 29, down 211.80 (-4.64%) from December 26 [1]. - COMEX silver主力合约 closed at 71.64 on December 29, down 8.04 (-10.08%) from December 26 [1]. - NYMEX platinum主力合约 closed at 2138.90 dollars/ounce on December 29, down 375.00 (-14.92%) from December 26 [1]. - NYMEX palladium主力合约 closed at 1695.50 on December 29, down 365.00 (-17.71%) from December 26 [1]. Spot Prices - London gold was at 4331.96 on December 29, down 200.55 (-4.42%) from December 26 [1]. - London silver was at 72.13 dollars/ounce on December 29, down 7.20 (-9.08%) from December 26 [1]. - Spot platinum was at 2104.07 dollars/ounce on December 29, down 346.84 (-14.15%) from December 26 [1]. - Spot palladium was at 1630.47 on December 29, down 292.93 (-15.23%) from December 26 [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D was at 1004.94 yuan/gram on December 29, down 3.86 (-0.38%) from December 26 [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 18797 yuan/kilogram on December 29, up 328 (1.78%) from December 26 [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 637 yuan/gram on December 29, down 25 (-3.78%) from December 26 [1]. Basis - Gold TD - Shanghai gold主力: The current basis is -2.24, up 5.26 from the previous value, and the 1 - year historical quantile is 65.00% [1]. - Silver TD - Shanghai silver主力: The current basis is 595, up 442 from the previous value, and the 1 - year historical quantile is 99.50% [1]. - London gold - COMEX gold: The current basis is -18.24, up 11.25 from the previous value, and the 1 - year historical quantile is 44.20% [1]. - London silver - COMEX silver: The current basis is 0.49, up 0.83 from the previous value, and the 1 - year historical quantile is 96.60% [1]. Price Ratios - COMEX gold/silver ratio is 60.72, up 3.41 (6.05%) from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver ratio is 55.32, down 0.15 (-0.28%) from the previous value [1]. - NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio is 1.26, up 0.04 (3.40%) from the previous value [1]. - Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio is 1.28, down 0.08 (-6.14%) from the previous value [1]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.12%, down 0.02 (-0.5%) from the previous value [1]. - 2 - year US Treasury yield is 3.45%, down 0.01 (-0.3%) from the previous value [1]. - 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield is 1.90%, down 0.01 (-0.5%) from the previous value [1]. - US dollar index is 98.00, down 0.04 (-0.04%) from the previous value [1]. - Offshore RMB exchange rate is 6.9980, down 0.0062 (-0.09%) from the previous value [1]. Inventory and Positions - Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory is 97704, up 12 (0.01%) from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory is 796739 kilograms, down 22692 (-2.77%) from the previous value [1]. - COMEX gold inventory is 36223374, up 32119 (0.09%) from the previous value [1]. - COMEX silver inventory is 449127596, down 600134 (-0.13%) from the previous value [1]. - COMEX gold registered warrants are 19361515, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - COMEX silver registered warrants are 127624307, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - SPDR gold ETF position is 1072, up 0.86 (0.08%) from the previous value []. - SLV silver ETF position is 16306, down 84.60 (-0.52%) from the previous value [1].

市场分析人士认为，当天黄金、白银价格下跌只是短期回调，上涨趋势依然存在。未来两天交易走 势对于判断未来几周黄金和白银的价格走向至关重要。如果未来两天出现巨大抛售压力，表明短期市场 顶部可能已经形成。如果未来几天黄金、白银价格强劲反弹，那么29日的低点将成为上涨趋势中最新 的"反弹低点"。 摩根大通和汇丰银行贵金属交易部门前总经理罗伯特·戈特利布认为，2026年黄金、白银价格上涨 动力能否持续，答案在于黄金、白银在全球投资组合中的角色如何转变。他预计，黄金、白银价格将在 结构性支撑的基础上温和上涨。 当天，纽约商品交易所2026年2月黄金期货价格一度跌至每盎司4346.6美元，2026年3月白银期货价 格一度跌至每盎司71.54美元。此前，白银期价隔夜创下每盎司82.67美元历史新高，黄金期价26日创下 每盎司4584.00美元历史新高。 瑞银集团29日发布报告说，在全球经济担忧持续以及美国国内政策不确定性等因素影响下，2026年 黄金需求将稳步增长。报告预计，到2026年9月，黄金价格或将达到每盎司5000美元。而美国中期选举 前后任何政治或经济动荡加剧都可能将金价推高至每盎司5400美元。 新华社纽约12月 ...

【最新数据一览】 12月29日白银ETF持仓16305.96吨，较前一交易日减少84.6吨； 12月29日延期补偿费支付方向：Ag(T+D)--空付多。 【要闻速递】 1、特朗普：考虑以不称职为由起诉鲍威尔，还是可能炒了他。 2、特朗普确认美军在委内瑞拉行动中打击一座大型设施。其最近和马杜罗进行了交谈。 北京时间周二(12月30日)亚盘时段，美元指数交投于98.054附近，现货白银今日开盘于72.19美元/盎司， 目前交投于72.82美元/盎司附近，白银t+d交投于17630元/千克附近，沪银主力交投于17596元/千克附 近。今日基本面关注美国12月芝加哥PMI。 周一(12月29日)美元指数下跌0.04%，收报98.015，现货白银收报72.15美元/盎司，下跌8.79%，由于地 缘紧张局势出现缓解信号，芝商所上调金属品种履约保证金，贵金属坐上过山车，现货黄金冲高回落， 日内重挫200美元，现货白银价格上演过山车行情，日内跌幅一度扩大至10%：现货黄金下跌4.45%，报 4331.65美元/盎司，现货铂金收跌14.22%，报2102.50美元/盎司；现货钯金收跌15.72%，至1621.00元/盎 司。 ...

当交易所提高保证金要求时，交易员必须投入更多现金来维持头寸，资金不足的投机者被迫减仓或平仓。分析人士认为，此举将有助于减少投 机行为。 分析人士指出，周一的下跌主要是由于投资者在金银经历强劲的季节性反弹后选择获利了结。贵金属历来在新年前都会出现非常强劲的上涨行 情。过去十年，黄金在这一时期上涨了约4%，而白银的涨幅通常接近7%。技术指标也支撑了此次抛售逻辑。衡量买卖动能的14天相对强弱指 数（RSI）显示，黄金在过去两周一直处于超买区域，预示回调在即。白银的情况则更为极端，自12月中旬以来涨幅超过25%，其RSI远高于70 的水平，表明短期内买盘过于拥挤。 中信建投期货宏观与贵金属分析师王彦青认为，从基本面分析，白银价格受美元信用弱化、现货供需格局变化、地缘政治风险等多重利多因素 支撑，但这些因素均偏向长期。从当前来看，这种短期快速上涨行情存在过度交易长期利多因素的风险。 贵金属市场遭遇"黑色星期一"。 周一现货白银亚市早盘历史首次突破80美元/盎司关口，并迅速冲高逼近84美元关口，涨幅接近6%。但随后行情急转直下，纽约市场盘中一度 大跌超11%。白银跳水带动其他贵金属同步下挫，现货钯金一度暴跌17%，现货铂 ...