五一假期，全球金融市场风险事件扎堆，日本央行一如预期维持利率不变，调降经济增长预估；美国4月 非农报告表现强劲，推后美联储降息预期；OPEC 同意6月石油产量增加41.1万桶/日，OPEC 料将进一步 加快增产步伐。 美国第一季度经济三年来首次萎缩，关税生效前企业大力囤货导致进口创纪录；美国4月制造业进一步萎 缩，关税挤压供应链令投入价格居高不下；美国初请失业金人数升至两个月最高，高于市场预期。 美国股市节节攀升，三大指数纷纷创出逾一个月高位，聚焦美联储政策前景；日本股市连续第七个交易 日上涨，创下2023年8月以来最长连涨纪录；香港恒生指数创近一个月新高，贸易紧张有缓和迹象；美元 指数从三周高位回落，就业数据良好且贸易局势缓和；离岸人民币对美元汇率升破7.20关口，为去年11月 以来首次。 大宗商品方面，CBOT大豆探底回升，一度跌至两周低点，受贸易战情绪影响；伦铜5月持续反弹，寄希 望于贸易紧张局势缓和；金价从两周低位回升，强劲的就业报告令金价承压；油价继续探底，因OPEC 将 加速增产引发供应增加担忧。 **美国股市连续第二周上涨** 美国股市在五一假期涨势明显，周线连续第二周上涨，三大股指创出逾一个月 ...

Group 1 - The offshore RMB exchange rate has significantly increased during the holiday, with a rise of over 600 basis points on May 2 and breaking the 7.20 mark for the first time since November of the previous year on May 5 [2] - The Hong Kong dollar has shown strong performance, reaching the strong end of its trading range for the second consecutive day, with a peak at 7.75 before retracting slightly [2] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened in the market by buying USD and selling 46.539 billion HKD due to the Hong Kong dollar's strength, attributed to increased stock investment demand and regional currency appreciation [2] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the recent rise in the offshore RMB is influenced by improved expectations for China's foreign trade environment, driven by news from major US retailers resuming shipments to Chinese suppliers [3] - The market anticipates multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year, leading to speculative buying of non-USD currencies [3] - The offshore RMB's exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 7.2 and 7.3, reflecting a growing correlation with the USD index amid recent volatility [3]

金十数据5月5日讯，在特朗普总统批准对海外制作的电影征收100%的关税以及本周美联储会议之前， 人们对贸易紧张局势的担忧重新浮现。瑞讯分析师Ipek Ozkardeskaya表示，特朗普的声明削弱了上周贸 易紧张局势可能缓解的乐观情绪。美联储周三预计将维持利率不变，不过它可能暗示，如果经济走弱， 未来几个月可能会降息。 分析师：特朗普对电影征收关税削弱乐观情绪 ...

在全球储备货币地位受到质疑的背景下，资金从美元流出。亚洲货币在美元疲软的推动下，正在经历一轮强烈的涨幅。 周一，新台币周五以4%的涨幅领涨亚洲股市，创1988年以来最大涨幅；离岸人民币兑美元升穿7.20关口，为去年11月以来首次，日内涨超100 点；港元连续第二天触及交易区间强方。 特朗普反复无常的关税政策加剧了市场对美国经济衰退的担忧。投资者对持有美国资产的意愿正在减弱，投机交易者对美元的看空程度达到了自9 月以来最高水平。 彭博数据显示，衡量亚洲地区货币表现的指标在周五飙升至2022年以来最高水平，而衡量新兴市场外汇回报的指标则创下历史新高。Jefferies的全 球外汇主管Brad Bechtel表示： "解决贸易紧张局势的自然方式是通过美元的贬值，因此，押注美元对亚洲货币的下跌可能是有意义的。" 新加坡银行指出，在贸易谈判乐观预期的推动下，中国台湾出口商抛售美元以及寿险公司外汇对冲操作的力度进一步加大，从而推动新台币兑美 元强劲升值；中国台湾"中央银行"在外汇市场的干预力度减弱，可能也是新台币上涨的原因之一。 港元连续第二个交易日触及其允许交易区间的强端，盘中一度升至区间上限7.75，此后抹去涨幅，目 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal industry has experienced significant growth in performance driven by rising metal prices, particularly in gold and copper [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metal industry has shown high growth, with several listed companies maintaining rapid growth in Q1 2024 [2][4]. - Major companies like Zijin Mining, China Aluminum, and Luoyang Molybdenum have reported substantial increases in revenue and net profit for 2024 [4][6]. Group 2: Company Highlights - Zijin Mining achieved approximately 303.64 billion yuan in revenue for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.49%, with a net profit of about 32.05 billion yuan, up 51.76% [4][6]. - In Q1 2024, Zijin Mining's revenue was 78.93 billion yuan, growing by 5.55%, and net profit reached 10.17 billion yuan, an increase of 62.39% [4][6]. - China Aluminum reported 2024 revenue of 237.07 billion yuan, a 5.21% increase, and a net profit of 12.4 billion yuan, up 85.38% [4][6]. - Luoyang Molybdenum's revenue for 2024 was 213.03 billion yuan, a 14.37% increase, with a net profit of 13.53 billion yuan, up 64.03% [4][6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Institutions remain optimistic about the long-term price trends of gold and copper, despite short-term fluctuations due to geopolitical factors [8][9][10]. - The copper market is expected to face a supply shortage, with demand from sectors like home appliances and electric vehicles driving prices upward [10]. - The aluminum market is anticipated to improve, with potential profit recovery for electrolytic aluminum as demand increases [10].

【消息面】 周五亚市早盘，黄金在逾两周低位窄幅震荡，目前交投于3250美元/盎司附近。金价周四下跌1.5%，盘中最低触及3202美元，为4月14日以来新 低，收报3238.3美元，贸易紧张局势缓和的信号打压黄金的避险买需，美元和美债收益率上涨，也对金价形成压制，同时市场还关注周五的美国 非农就业报告，以判断经济前景。 交易员现在关注的焦点是美国与贸易伙伴会达成怎样的协议，并关注何时在数据中看到预期的关税影响。 【5.2黄金交易建议】 1，黄金稳健上涨3283-3386美元附近空，止损3291美元，止盈看3250美元 2，黄金回落3330-3233美元附近多，止损3225美元，止盈看3265美元 3，建议仅供参考，投资有风险，入市需谨慎 【黄金行情走势简析】 1，上一个交易日，黄金亚盘震荡下跌，晚间黄金大幅下跌至3202后触底反弹，收在3338.3美元，日线收下影阴线，截止当前，日线已连续3个交 易日收阴线，TRIX趋势指标死叉，KDJ指标高位死叉，附图拐头向下，MACD指标快慢线在0轴上方死叉，绿色空头动能增量，日线走势依旧是 偏空。 2，2小时，黄金早间跌至3227美元后触底反弹，当前运行在3254美元附近 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS analysts suggest that the upcoming non-farm payroll report could be a crucial factor for gold prices to rebound to $3,500 per ounce, depending on the employment data's impact on Federal Reserve policy [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Gold prices fell to a two-week low due to increased risk appetite stemming from signs of easing trade tensions, which diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] - A stronger US dollar has also contributed to the downward pressure on gold prices [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Giovanni Staunovo from UBS indicated that market optimism regarding the US signing lower tariff agreements with other countries is affecting gold prices negatively [1] - A weak employment report is expected to bolster calls for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, potentially allowing gold prices to rise in the coming months [1]

Group 1 - China's demand for gold surged recently, with significant inflows into gold ETFs leading to a brief peak in spot gold prices at $3,500 [1] - However, this demand quickly reversed, with Chinese investors liquidating positions before the Labor Day holiday, resulting in a 5% decline from historical highs in total holdings [2][8] - On April 22, Chinese investors increased their holdings by 1.2 million ounces, but subsequently sold nearly 1 million ounces, reversing the previous buying trend [3][5] Group 2 - The total holdings in China have decreased by approximately 5%, and the arbitrage space for paper gold has shrunk by $20 per ounce from its peak [8] - Recent price fluctuations in gold have been heavily influenced by Chinese market activity, particularly during the Asian trading hours, which can trigger trading signals for overseas commodity trading advisors [10] - A strong dollar and easing trade tensions have diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, with market confidence remaining unstable [12] Group 3 - Analysts noted that gold prices confirmed a break below a three-week upward channel, indicating potential further declines [13] - The relative strength index (RSI) is testing critical support levels, with the need for gold to maintain above the 21-day moving average at $3,230 to preserve bullish potential [13] - If gold fails to hold above this moving average, it may initiate a new downward trend, targeting psychological levels at $3,150 and subsequently the 50-day moving average at $3,081 [13]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current price of spot gold is around $3306, showing a consolidation trend after profit-taking due to easing trade tensions following U.S. President Trump's tariff policy changes [1][2]. - Short-term outlook suggests gold prices may remain within the range of $3260 to $3380, with potential for a breakout above $3500 if the Federal Reserve signals stronger rate cuts or if trade tensions escalate again [1][2]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3260 and $3268, with a bullish outlook maintained as long as these levels hold [4]. Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil prices have dipped to $63.16, reflecting market concerns over potential global economic recession due to unpredictable tariff strategies from the U.S. [5][6]. - The oil market is facing downward pressure from rising inventories and potential OPEC+ production increases, with a bearish sentiment prevailing unless trade tensions ease or demand shows signs of recovery [5][6]. - Short-term trading strategy for oil suggests focusing on selling on rebounds, with resistance levels at $60.0 to $61.0 and support levels at $57.0 to $56.0 [6].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced a significant drop of nearly 1% on April 29, with spot gold falling to $3,317.25 per ounce, a decline of 0.81% after briefly dropping below the $3,300 mark [1] - The easing of trade tensions, particularly the U.S. government's softened stance on auto tariffs, has reduced the demand for safe-haven assets like gold, leading to a rebound in the U.S. dollar [1][2] - Despite short-term pressures on gold prices, long-term demand for gold as a safe-haven asset remains strong due to ongoing uncertainties in trade policies and economic indicators [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Key economic indicators show concerning trends, with the consumer confidence index falling to a five-year low and job vacancies decreasing by 288,000 in March [2] - Goldman Sachs has revised its GDP forecast, predicting a contraction of 0.8% for the first quarter, indicating potential economic slowdown [2] - The Federal Reserve officials are open to interest rate cuts if economic risks become apparent, but they prefer to assess the impact of trade policies on inflation and employment first [3] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices fell sharply, with WTI crude dropping 2.84% to $59.93 per barrel and Brent crude down 2.48% to $63 per barrel, influenced by concerns over global demand due to trade tensions [5] - OPEC+ is considering increasing production, which could exacerbate supply-demand imbalances in the oil market amid declining demand forecasts [7] - U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 3.8 million barrels, significantly higher than the expected increase of 400,000 barrels, raising concerns about supply excess [7]