Group 1 - The report indicates a rebound in growth style driven by positive changes in liquidity and industrial catalysts, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and the lifting of restrictions on H200 chip exports to China [2][10] - The AI industry is in a phase of rapid evolution, with infrastructure scaling up and application scenarios being implemented, leading investors to believe that technology growth may remain a key theme in the current bull market [2][10] - The report suggests that the growth sector may still be in a high-level oscillation phase, with various factors such as the uncertainty of the Fed's rate cut schedule and adjustments in overseas tech stocks potentially limiting the rebound space for the tech sector [2][10] Group 2 - The report highlights that during the year-end transition period, growth stocks typically benefit from ample liquidity, and the current macroeconomic expectations are weak, which may create a favorable environment for growth stock rebounds [3][11] - It is assumed that the current phase is still early in the growth stock bull market, with expectations of a second wave of accelerated growth driven by incremental capital in the later stages of the bull market [3][14] - The report emphasizes that high-quality segments within the growth stocks may offer better allocation value, with specific attention to sectors like consumer electronics, gaming, and renewable energy [3][26] Group 3 - The report provides a historical performance analysis of major sectors during year-end transitions, indicating that growth stocks generally outperform other sectors [11][12] - It notes that the internal rotation and expansion of growth stocks are likely to continue, with significant changes in leading sectors and fund holdings compared to previous bull market phases [21][24] - The report suggests that the valuation of growth stocks is generally not low, and high-cost performance segments may present better investment opportunities moving forward [3][26]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continues to exhibit volatility as year-end approaches, with the "cross-year market" key window gradually approaching, supported by positive policy signals for 2026 [1][7]. Market Performance - The main board market experienced fluctuations, with trading activity remaining high, exceeding 1.7 trillion yuan. As of December 12, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.34%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.84%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.74%. The Every Day Brand 100 Index fell by 0.49%, closing at 1172.04 points [2]. Component Stocks - Notable performers included Haidilao, which saw a weekly increase of 5.56%. Additionally, Baidu Group-SW and 11 other component stocks had weekly gains exceeding 2%. Tencent Holdings experienced a market value increase of 54.9 billion yuan, while China Ping An, Meituan-W, CATL, Baidu Group-SW, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, and Zijin Mining all saw market value increases exceeding 10 billion yuan [4][5]. Economic Environment - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, marking the third rate cut of the year. The meeting's tone was neutral to dovish, with projections indicating only one rate cut in 2026. Domestically, November exports remained resilient, and CPI growth continued to recover. Upcoming important meetings in December will focus on expanding domestic demand and fostering new growth drivers [6]. Future Market Outlook - Prior to the initiation of the "cross-year market," the market is expected to undergo adjustments. However, with the accumulation of new positive factors, the adjustments may be nearing an end, and a short-term upward trend in the market is anticipated [7]. Company Focus: Great Wall Motors - Great Wall Motors reported a November sales volume of 133,200 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 4.57%. The company sold 40,113 new energy vehicles in November. The Haval brand's wholesale sales in November were 75,000 units, a decrease of 3.8% year-on-year, while the Tank brand saw a 19.6% year-on-year increase in wholesale sales [8][9]. - Great Wall Motors is enhancing its global business layout, having established nine R&D bases and five software R&D centers worldwide. The company has exported to over 170 countries and regions, with more than 1,400 overseas sales channels [9]. - The company is also advancing its high-end platform, with a new luxury SUV expected to launch in the first half of 2026. Analysts predict continued growth for Great Wall Motors' overseas operations, driven by new product launches and the establishment of direct sales channels [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming investment opportunities and risks in the A-share market as the year-end approaches, highlighting the significance of fundamental factors and policy directions for the next year [3][4]. Group 1: Cross-Year Market Logic and Historical Review - The A-share market exhibits seasonal characteristics, with a "cross-year market" being a notable investment window, showing over 70% probability of gains from November to January since 2010, with an average increase of 11.5% for the Shanghai Composite Index and 14.9% for the ChiNext Index during this period [5][6]. - The cross-year market typically lasts about 44 trading days, with historical data indicating varying performance based on previous year's market conditions [6][7]. - Factors contributing to this phenomenon include increased bank credit issuance at year-end, which enhances market liquidity, and positive signals from key policy meetings that boost market expectations [7][8]. Group 2: Special Background for 2024-2025 Cross-Year Market - The current macroeconomic environment presents unique conditions for the upcoming cross-year market, particularly with a moderate internal economic recovery and anticipated liquidity improvements from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [13][14]. - The Federal Reserve has cut rates by 75 basis points throughout the year, signaling a potential end to the rate-cutting cycle, which may ease pressure on the RMB exchange rate [15][17]. - As the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan," there is heightened policy expectation focusing on technological innovation and new productivity, which may lead to early market movements and increased volatility [17]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities Selection - The article suggests a positive outlook for the new year, emphasizing that internal economic recovery, policy support, and valuation corrections provide a solid foundation for A-shares [18]. - Recommended investment themes include the AI industry, globally competitive high-end manufacturing, and industries benefiting from supply-side optimization [18][20]. - Specific ETFs are highlighted for investment, such as those focusing on AI trends, advantageous manufacturing, and sectors experiencing supply-side improvements, providing efficient tools for investors to participate in the cross-year market [21][26][29].

证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 12 日 星期五 【下周策略】 ◆本周走势回顾 本周沪指震荡调整，全周市场交投活跃度仍保持高位，量能均 超 1.7 万亿元，周一及周五更是站上两万亿。从周 K 线来看，上证 指数下跌 0.34%，深证成指上涨 0.84%，创业板指上涨 2.74%，科创 50 指数上涨 1.72%，北证 50 指数上涨 2.79%。个股板块跌多涨少， 通信、国防军工、电子、机械设备和电力设备等板块涨幅靠前，煤 炭、石油石化、钢铁、房地产和纺织服饰等板块跌幅靠前。 ◆下周大势研判：震荡盘升 从本周市场来看： 首先，12 月中央政治局会议和中央经济工作会议相继召开，为 2026 年经济工作定向。 其次，11 月出口延续强韧性，CPI 同比涨幅继续修复。 最后，美联储如期降息 25 个基点，本次议息会议的基调中性 偏鸽。 总体来看，本周沪指震荡调整，全周市场交投活跃度仍保持高 位，量能均超 1.7 万亿元，周一及周五更是站上两万亿。从海外环 境来看，美联储 12 月议息会议如期降息 25 个基点至 3.50%-3.75%， 为年内第三次降息。此次议息会议的基调中性偏鸽，但会后点阵图 显示 202 ...

本周最后一个交易日，市场延续震荡分化，高股息、高成长再现"跷跷板"效应，三大指数集体走低。年末的波动让不少朋友心生疑虑：这到底是风险还是机 遇？ 【机构共识：震荡或为布局跨年行情创造条件】 梳理近期多家头部机构的观点，一个共识逐渐清晰：市场短期可能进入震荡阶段，但中长期向好的基础并未改变，调整或为布局创造条件。 光大证券认为，市场大方向或仍处在牛市中，不过短期或进入宽幅震荡阶段。与往年牛市相比，当前指数仍然有相当大的上涨空间，但是在国家对于"慢 牛"的政策指引之下，牛市持续的时间或许要比涨幅更加重要。不过短期来看，市场可能缺乏强力催化，叠加年末部分投资者在行为上可能趋于稳健，股市 短期或以震荡蓄势为主。 中国银河证券也指出，年末行情轮动较快，或仍以震荡结构为主。同时，A股市场中长期向好逻辑不改。监管层下调险企股票投资风险因子，将进一步释放 保险资金入市潜力，为市场注入更多增量流动性。重要会议提出多项重点举措，旨在提高资本市场制度的包容性适应性，为市场长期健康发展筑牢制度根 基。 震荡本身并不可怕，关键是如何理解其本质。信达证券的观点提供了一个独特视角：牛市中，低成交量往往不是利空信号，事后来看，成交量低点大多 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent performance of the A-share market, with the major indices experiencing a decline, while specific stocks like Maiwei Co., Ltd. saw significant gains [1] - The A500 ETF by Huatai-PB has been actively traded, with a turnover exceeding 7.7 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 26.32%, indicating strong market interest [1] - In the past five trading days, the A500 ETF has attracted over 3.1 billion yuan in net inflows, reflecting a positive sentiment towards this investment vehicle [1] Group 2 - Fund advisors have increased their allocation to A-share assets despite market volatility in November, indicating a strategic move to position for the year-end market [2] - A total of 131 fund advisor portfolios adjusted their allocations in November, with A-share assets receiving the most significant increase compared to other asset classes [2] - Market sentiment is expected to improve in the second half of 2025, with a focus on equity assets and a potential "index bull" market emerging as new capital flows into the market [2]

近期国内政策积极表态为市场构建支撑，且大盘已经进行较长时间的震荡，有望迎来跨年行情的布局窗口期。据信达证券统计，2010 年以来，每年年底 到第二年春季的跨年阶段，大多会出现一段跨年行情。行情通常持续 1-2 个月，启动时间集中在 12 月-次年 1 月。从历史经验来看，如果指数处在低位， 则跨年行情启动的时间较早，幅度较大，有正收益的概率较高。但如果指数处在高位，则跨年行情启动的时间往往较晚，幅度和收益不确定性也更大。 | 年份 | 起始时间 | 结束时间 | 持续交易日数 | 上证综指涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 | 2025/1/13 | 2025/3/19 | રર | 8% | 涨 | | 2024 | 2024/2/6 | 2024/5/20 | ୧୩ | 17% | 跌 | | 2023 | 2022/12/23 | 2023/3/3 | 46 | 9% | 跌 | | 2022 | 2022/1/28 | 2022/2/9 | 19 | 3% | 涨 | | 2021 | 2020/11/3 | 2021/2/19 | ...

人民财讯12月11日电，2025年以来，行情主要由科技股搭台唱戏，其余板块多数涨幅平平，新旧消费、 公共设施、房地产等指数表现不佳，不仅难寻超额收益，不少个股甚至跌幅较大，个别主题基金也在慢 牛中折损净值。 行情步入年末，当下已经来到跨年布局时点。多位基金经理指出，科技股或将继续担纲行情主线，但明 年的行情或将更加均衡，顺周期板块、消费板块等被"冷落"的公司投资机遇凸显；尤其是部分经历供给 侧改革的公司，受益于产业出清，或将作为新的高股息资产方向。 ...

今日市场探底回升，三大指数涨跌不一，深成指、创业板指盘中先后翻红，创业板指此前一度跌超 2%。上证指数收跌0.23%，深证成指收涨0.29%，创业板指收跌0.02%。沪深两市成交额1.78万亿，较上 一个交易日缩量1254亿。盘面上，地产股午后异动上涨，贵金属等板块涨幅居前，CPO、半导体题材午 后走强；银行、电力设备、计算机等板块调整。 【热点1】 据摩根大通首席中国股票策略师表示，预计随着估值正常化以及遏制产能过剩的举措提振关键行业的盈 利能力，MSCI中国指数将进一步反弹。到2026年底，MSCI中国指数将上涨约18%，沪深300指数将上 涨约12%。MSCI香港指数在资本流动和房地产市场情绪最终复苏的支撑下，涨幅可达18%。 近期国内政策积极表态为市场构建支撑，且大盘已经进行较长时间的震荡，有望迎来跨年行情的布局窗 口期。据信达证券统计，2010 年以来，每年年底到第二年春季的跨年阶段，大多会出现一段跨年行 情。行情通常持续 1-2 个月，启动时间集中在 12 月-次年 1 月。从历史经验来看，如果指数处在低位， 则跨年行情启动的时间较早，幅度较大，有正收益的概率较高。但如果指数处在高位，则跨年行情启 ...

Market Overview - The market showed mixed performance with over 2800 stocks declining, and total trading volume reaching 1.8 trillion, a decrease of 125.45 billion from the previous day [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.23%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.29%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.02% [1] Market Adjustment Reasons - Global liquidity concerns were highlighted as the 10-year Japanese government bond yield surpassed 1.96%, with the Bank of Japan signaling potential interest rate hikes, which may lead to market volatility [2] - Policy expectations were also a factor, as the November CPI showed a strong year-on-year increase of 0.7%, the highest since March 2024, driven mainly by rising food prices [2] Sector Performance - The retail sector continued its strong performance, with notable stocks like Dongbai Group achieving four consecutive trading limits, and others like Yonghui Supermarket and Huijia Times hitting the daily limit [5] - The Hainan sector saw a rebound, with stocks like Hainan Ruize and Luoniushan reaching their daily limits, driven by the upcoming full island closure operation of Hainan Free Trade Port [6] - The precious metals sector rose, led by Xiaocheng Technology, with silver prices increasing significantly, up nearly 110% year-to-date [7] Individual Stock Highlights - Moore Threads saw a surge in its stock price, surpassing its initial listing high of 688 yuan, with a total market capitalization exceeding 320 billion [3] Institutional Perspectives - Zhongyin Securities anticipates that the market will continue to rise, supported by funds and policies, with a potential early start to the spring market rally [9] - Xinda Securities suggests that December may serve as a window for positioning in the cross-year market, although the timing for a rally may not be immediate due to current valuation concerns [10] - CITIC Securities notes that market fluctuations and structural opportunities will be the norm until unexpected changes in domestic demand occur, emphasizing the potential undervaluation in resource and traditional manufacturing sectors [11]